heavy favorite system

[frankster]

tuesday 4-18
ytd 6-1 +700

8.boston -217 over tampa bay
9.cws -229 over kc

yes doyle they say it won't work without letting it play out. I play all home favorites. I play favorites with the least value (over 100 off according to my numbers). They do not know how I figure my numbers. I bet cws on monday so I will end up winning 100 / play (7 plays so far so I am up 700 because of the win). I realize it goes against value and what most think you have to do to be successful at handicapping. It's a system that I will work until 50 plays. I will have 3-5 bets of 1800 but I will stick with the system. I have lurked here for 5 years. I have found that I cannot cherry pick plays from the good cappers and be successful. So I am sticking with one system that has done me well then I will switch to a capper I have in mind for the second half of the season. Good luck to all.

 

[SunDog]

Good Luck Frankster-- One thing to keep in mind were the heavy favored Yanks last year against TB and how so many lost at that time- can swing in either direction-- love new ideas and will be watching.

 

[oldirtyku]

Good luck. Intersting system to watch.

 

[SKDiablo]

you will lose a lot of money doing this. trust me...

 

[frankster]

ytd 8-1 +900

trust you? I don't even know you.

 

[Boxslayer]

Why don't you guys shut up and let him do what he wants, Jesus. He's trying a system. If he picks the favorite through selective handicapping, leave him alone. If he does bad, he'll fall on his face.. If he does well, he'll make money.

Get off his back.. Jeez.

because do you think it hasnt already been thought of? theyre trying to help.

 

[Boxslayer]

by the way good luck frankster

 

[Sekrah]

because do you think it hasnt already been thought of? theyre trying to help.

He isn't blindly following every heavy favorite to roll down the pipe. He has his own system with his own numbers. Let him do it for christs sake.

They are not trying to help at all. They are only being annoying condescending pests. Most of the people who were attacking him don't even post their own picks usually meaning most of them are career losing players.

Lay off his back.

 

[beating.vegas]

because do you think it hasnt already been thought of? theyre trying to help.

stop bothering others would you...

post your plays and leave the handicapping to posters that know what they are doing.

 

[frankster]

wednesday 4-19
ytd: 8-1 +900

10. cws -253 over kc
11. boston -290 over tb

 

[frankster]

wednesday 4-19 finals
ytd: 10-1 +1100

 

[thirdperson]

Disbelievers are the cynical majority who often lose. Good to see not everyone lose from betting on favorites with Martingale method. As you say, there is more than one way to profit from betting. Whatever works is fine. The system works if long losing streaks can be avoided and wins occur often enough. May your luck continues.

 

[SKDiablo]

this must be a joke... do you guys seriously don't realize why this system will fail miserably. there really is no way "worse" way to bet baseball than this...

1) USUALLY, you are giving up tons of value betting the heavy favoriates.
2) Doubling your bet after each loss is just ridiciulous. That is just ignorant bankroll management. Your strategy won't be as bad if you didn't employ this doubling strategy. It will still be a losing system.

At least you are up for the season, it looks like. But I hope you realize your 11 units is misleading, as if heavy favoriates lose twice in a row you could already be in teh negative.

I recommend that you stop here and now, becaues I promise you: if you do this until the end of the season, you will be in the negative. I am willing to place a big wager on this gurarentee.

Best wishes.

 

[frankster]

It is a winning system with the doubling strategy. It is a loser without it. It is a loser with runlines. If you know the answers to betting baseball please post your picks. As I said earlier I will be going to aroung 50 selections. I am betting these based on my numbers. Value does not always win. Everyone does not figure value the same way. I am betting on the stronger team. They will win the series a very large percentage of the time. My system will weed out a lot of the hiccups. I realize it can be dangerous. I could bet all dogs and lose the same amount. To each his own. Reply to me at 50 picks.
For now concentrate on posting your picks.
Thank you.

 

[beating.vegas]

pretty funny...you are the only one here with only one loss, and still get bashed.

it wont end, so just ignore. and dont expect the mods to help you out, they have their own agenda.

 

[SBBC]

Yes- its funny how the bashers beat up on someone who wins. If you dont like the system- don't play the games- that simple! Let him do his own thing- seems to be working for him.

 

[SKDiablo]

It is a winning system with the doubling strategy. It is a loser without it. It is a loser with runlines. If you know the answers to betting baseball please post your picks. As I said earlier I will be going to aroung 50 selections. I am betting these based on my numbers. Value does not always win. Everyone does not figure value the same way. I am betting on the stronger team. They will win the series a very large percentage of the time. My system will weed out a lot of the hiccups. I realize it can be dangerous. I could bet all dogs and lose the same amount. To each his own. Reply to me at 50 picks.
For now concentrate on posting your picks.
Thank you.

Are you serious? Doubling your bets have NO EFFECT on expected value of each plays. Have you taken high school math buddy? Actually, this question is directed to many of the clueless posters here.

It is easy to bash on a losing system. You can point to the result and go "Hey. Look at your resuls, you are losing." What confuses many bettors and drive them to ruins is that inherently "winning" systems can suffer a short term loss and "grossly" losing systems can go on a lucky run. Looking past the short term result of what looks like a winning system is more difficult to do.

It disappoints me that many of the posters here lack the basic mathematical foundation to immediately understand why this system has no chance.

 

[frankster]

Last response

My system gives me selective picks on home favorites. If I do not double up the juice will cause the system to be a net loser. If I use -1 or -1.5 the system will be a net loser. If I bet straight and double I will be a net winner as it has for the last three years. Every system and selections will go on losing and winning runs that includes choptalk, journeyman, you, etc. Win or lose we all believe we have value. You seem to know what not to do to win baseball. But for you to win you need to rely on others. Go out on a limb, put up or shut up, get some balls, put your name on the line. Put your high school math education to work and win us all some money. I know this is a dangerous system- requires a bankroll to back it up and make it work. I trust all of my selections up to the 50 play mark whether you do or not.

 

[MrJ]

If I do not double up the juice will cause the system to be a net loser.

Doubling up does not take care of the juice, in fact it doubles it. All you are doing by doubling up is changing the distribution of profit/loss, ie you will rarely lose but when you do it will be pretty ugly. Eventually you will encounter a run that will ruin you. You can't change the ev of betting by using a progression (which is what doubling up is), and to have a 'profitable (ie +ev) system you need to change the ev. I'm not going to insist you won't win as I have no idea what sort of luck you will encounter but I do suggest you quit now while you are ahead.

 

[frankster]

4-23 ytd 10-1 +1100

12. NYY -245 over Baltimore