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Best in NBA and NFL. More than a formula it’s a way of thinking. The way I get my bench mark for NBA is look at their points for and points against. Let’s say it’s 109.6 for and 111.3 against. That means games involving said team avg 221 points. I do the same for the other team, let’s say their totals avg 232. That means my bench mark for this game is about 226.5. Now the range of error is between 221 - 232. The total most times falls in the middle of that range but as long as it’s set in the range it’s ok. What I look for is when totals are set outside the range. So in the example above if the the total opened more than 232 or less than 221 that is a red flag for me and makes me ask why.
when you say to yourself “boy I love this team or this total” ask yourselves why and ask yourself if others bettors see exactly what you see and think the same thing. Then look at the market and see what the line is doing. If your side is becoming more expensive than that makes sense, but if your side is becoming cheaper and cheaper watch the hell out.
when you say to yourself “boy I love this team or this total” ask yourselves why and ask yourself if others bettors see exactly what you see and think the same thing. Then look at the market and see what the line is doing. If your side is becoming more expensive than that makes sense, but if your side is becoming cheaper and cheaper watch the hell out.
Yes, you are right. But not seven points too high. 1 point outside the range. ATL games are at 226, CHA games are at 216. So can can expect a 221, we def expect it to be between 226 and 216 because why would the total be higher if they were playing a team that scores less than they do on AVG. Line opened at 227, if the first movement is up then I'm all over this.
You def don’t want more than 2.5 points - 3 points past the open. Cause then the number starts losing value some. But look at the Phx/Det game: they ended regulation at 186. That’s 30 points under the total. The NO/Cha total was 217.5 and the game ended 228.
last night the Port/Min game was 233 and they scored 250+. A lot of these games aren’t even close to the total.
last night the Port/Min game was 233 and they scored 250+. A lot of these games aren’t even close to the total.
NP, PTS. We'd all love to turn sports betting into a little side job where you can grind out a few extra bucks every week. I've been trying so many strategies and studying so many trends and building so many prediction models over the last 20 years. I mean I definitely picked up a few insights plus I hung around gamblers all my life. I've spent more time in a casino than out of one and I have brushed shoulders with very smart, very disciplined guys who I learned a lot from just in regards into how the whole "gambling for a living" works. You also see examples of how not to do it. I know how not to sports bet because I used to do it wrong and get my azz handed to me. I've burned a few BRs in my life chasing sports losses.
Here's the big secret, I'm gonna just lay it out there. You have to bet straight bets only. Experts say bets should be 2% of your BR. I say 5% is ok. If you have an online account with $100 in it, bet the totals for $5 each the whole year. It's an investment. Not a Lottery ticket. That's usually not what we do. We usually bet $50 straight and then put in a $50 parlay with your top three plays and want to be in action for your whole BR in one night. EDGE: Books. It's boring to do sportsbetting the right way. EDGE: Books.
Think about it, if you put $5 on all these totals and at the end of the year you went 60%. That means you're profit is 16% of money wagered. Let's say you make 150 bets in the season. That's $750 wagered and you're profit is: $115. Now you're account has $215 in it. Not a sexy number by any means but it is 115% increase from when you started. You need to sustain vs that 0 -3 and 0 - 4 streak that you are absolutely guaranteed to have. It's the NBA man. Crazy sh!t happens every night. We almost lost that Suns total cause they decided to score 29 points in OT. That's a 6 points per min pace. Which is ridiculous.
If sportsbetting is done to feed that action addiction then just bet small because you have no chance. And I'm a gambler through and through. I LOVE action and when I play poker I like to play as big as I possibly can and when I bet I like to have as much on the game as I can. But if you bet more than let's say 10% of your roll then you can go broke and if you are betting parlays and teasers and stuff you will def go broke. I love parlays. I love when the parlay ticket is as long as my arm. That's the junkie in me. I know you can't win like that in long run, you have to do it the boring way. Sucks but that's how you have to do it.
My goal is to find a niche in every sport. I have NFL. This same "head scratcher" angle works well in NFL plus I found a gangbuster of a situation that only happens a handful times per year and it is auto-matic. It may have lost 2 - 3 times in 5+ years. And I don't have to provide any record, I can give you the situation and you can go through the season records and get the record for yourself. And no one else knows about it or talks about it that I heard and I only shared it with a friend or two. This year it was 4 - 1 and I faded it on the loss because of how the line behaved. Again, I can give you the situation and you can see for yourself and I advise you to go back as far as you want, the record of this situation will only get better, and better. It never falls back to the mean like all other trends do. I don't know if I want to release it publicly. Sorry. PM me. Plus the NFL is over and it is impossible for the situation to happen in the playoffs.
I advise everyone to play the totals, but be smart. No parlays, no teasers. Stay within that 5% of what you're working with. I'd like to see you all make money with this thread.
Here's the big secret, I'm gonna just lay it out there. You have to bet straight bets only. Experts say bets should be 2% of your BR. I say 5% is ok. If you have an online account with $100 in it, bet the totals for $5 each the whole year. It's an investment. Not a Lottery ticket. That's usually not what we do. We usually bet $50 straight and then put in a $50 parlay with your top three plays and want to be in action for your whole BR in one night. EDGE: Books. It's boring to do sportsbetting the right way. EDGE: Books.
Think about it, if you put $5 on all these totals and at the end of the year you went 60%. That means you're profit is 16% of money wagered. Let's say you make 150 bets in the season. That's $750 wagered and you're profit is: $115. Now you're account has $215 in it. Not a sexy number by any means but it is 115% increase from when you started. You need to sustain vs that 0 -3 and 0 - 4 streak that you are absolutely guaranteed to have. It's the NBA man. Crazy sh!t happens every night. We almost lost that Suns total cause they decided to score 29 points in OT. That's a 6 points per min pace. Which is ridiculous.
If sportsbetting is done to feed that action addiction then just bet small because you have no chance. And I'm a gambler through and through. I LOVE action and when I play poker I like to play as big as I possibly can and when I bet I like to have as much on the game as I can. But if you bet more than let's say 10% of your roll then you can go broke and if you are betting parlays and teasers and stuff you will def go broke. I love parlays. I love when the parlay ticket is as long as my arm. That's the junkie in me. I know you can't win like that in long run, you have to do it the boring way. Sucks but that's how you have to do it.
My goal is to find a niche in every sport. I have NFL. This same "head scratcher" angle works well in NFL plus I found a gangbuster of a situation that only happens a handful times per year and it is auto-matic. It may have lost 2 - 3 times in 5+ years. And I don't have to provide any record, I can give you the situation and you can go through the season records and get the record for yourself. And no one else knows about it or talks about it that I heard and I only shared it with a friend or two. This year it was 4 - 1 and I faded it on the loss because of how the line behaved. Again, I can give you the situation and you can see for yourself and I advise you to go back as far as you want, the record of this situation will only get better, and better. It never falls back to the mean like all other trends do. I don't know if I want to release it publicly. Sorry. PM me. Plus the NFL is over and it is impossible for the situation to happen in the playoffs.
I advise everyone to play the totals, but be smart. No parlays, no teasers. Stay within that 5% of what you're working with. I'd like to see you all make money with this thread.
Hi Fan Bouts - Found your thread b/c Seer has been promoting your totals in his thread - Thanks for the winners!
I have been tracking line moves on totals for several years. Its interesting Overall Moves up greater than 2 are 50% this year I added in moves great than 3 and your right Those hit at a fast rate over 80% so far that wont keep up but a total that moves up great than 3 usually hits.
Thanks again for the winners stay hot
OK let's run down the totals for every NBA game and see what we have today and what we think.
DEN AT PHI
DEN GAMES: 234 PHI GAMES: 222. OUR BENCHMARK: 228. MARKET OPENED: 222 CURRENT: 220.5
This game has a reason for the low total. A lot of Sixers including Embiid, Harris, Milton, and definitely Curry may not play. If that is the case, I do like the under here so we have to wait and see till around 2pm maybe. Tip off is 3pm.
MIA AT WASH
MIA GAMES: 213 WASH GAMES: 241 BENCHMARK: 227 MARKET OPENED: 230.5 CURRENT: 230
This game is within reasonable distance from the benchmark so nothing here
ATL AT CHA
We talked about this one. Total is set above the avg of the higher scoring team in the matchup. OVER 227 HERE
PHX AT IND
PHX GAMES: 212 IND GAMES: 222 BENCHMARK: 217 MARKET OPENED: 216 CURRENT 215.5 Nothing here
SA AT MIN
SA GAMES: 227 MIN GAMES 230 MARKET OPENED: 231.5 CURRENT: 234
Why did the line open with a total that's greater than the avg game of the higher scoring team. Do they think this will be a greater than normal output by 1 or both of the teams? Seems like they do. I'm in at OVER 234
CLV AT MIL
CLV GAMES: 205 MIL GAMES: 238 BENCHMARK: 221.5 MARKET OPENED: 223 CURRENT: 222.5 Nothing here
ORL AT DALL
ORL GAMES: 216 DAL GAMES: 216 BENCHMARK: 216 MARKET OPENED: 216.5 CURRENT: 218.5
Here we have an interesting case. Both teams avg. the same and the set price is above the avg of the higher scoring team, but the set price is close to the benchmark so what do you do? I look to the market for guidance. Line jumped right away to 217.5 and then crept to 218 and 218.5. I will be on the OVER HERE as well at 218.5
OVER 227.5(or 228) ATL/CHA
OVER 234 SA/MIN
OVER 218.5 ORL/DAL
Those are the totals for today and let's watch and listen for info about PHI and DEN. I'll be back with the sides in a bit as that is a much less mathematical and much more abstract formula. GL wherever your money lies.
DEN AT PHI
DEN GAMES: 234 PHI GAMES: 222. OUR BENCHMARK: 228. MARKET OPENED: 222 CURRENT: 220.5
This game has a reason for the low total. A lot of Sixers including Embiid, Harris, Milton, and definitely Curry may not play. If that is the case, I do like the under here so we have to wait and see till around 2pm maybe. Tip off is 3pm.
MIA AT WASH
MIA GAMES: 213 WASH GAMES: 241 BENCHMARK: 227 MARKET OPENED: 230.5 CURRENT: 230
This game is within reasonable distance from the benchmark so nothing here
ATL AT CHA
We talked about this one. Total is set above the avg of the higher scoring team in the matchup. OVER 227 HERE
PHX AT IND
PHX GAMES: 212 IND GAMES: 222 BENCHMARK: 217 MARKET OPENED: 216 CURRENT 215.5 Nothing here
SA AT MIN
SA GAMES: 227 MIN GAMES 230 MARKET OPENED: 231.5 CURRENT: 234
Why did the line open with a total that's greater than the avg game of the higher scoring team. Do they think this will be a greater than normal output by 1 or both of the teams? Seems like they do. I'm in at OVER 234
CLV AT MIL
CLV GAMES: 205 MIL GAMES: 238 BENCHMARK: 221.5 MARKET OPENED: 223 CURRENT: 222.5 Nothing here
ORL AT DALL
ORL GAMES: 216 DAL GAMES: 216 BENCHMARK: 216 MARKET OPENED: 216.5 CURRENT: 218.5
Here we have an interesting case. Both teams avg. the same and the set price is above the avg of the higher scoring team, but the set price is close to the benchmark so what do you do? I look to the market for guidance. Line jumped right away to 217.5 and then crept to 218 and 218.5. I will be on the OVER HERE as well at 218.5
OVER 227.5(or 228) ATL/CHA
OVER 234 SA/MIN
OVER 218.5 ORL/DAL
Those are the totals for today and let's watch and listen for info about PHI and DEN. I'll be back with the sides in a bit as that is a much less mathematical and much more abstract formula. GL wherever your money lies.
Here's the sides I'm looking at.
DEN AT PHI
Here's my thoughts on this game. A few consensuses I check has 60% of the bets on Philly. That's probably because people see Philly a dog at home and fell head over heels without even checking to see who is playing and who is not. The line opened DEN -4 and now is DEN -5.5 even though there are more wagers on Philly. That leads me to believe the bigger wagers are on DEN. If Embiid Harris Milton and Curry don't play then that's option 1, 2, 3, 4 on offense that will not play. This is also why I'm considering the under. The leading scorers on the floor for Philly will need to be Danny Green, the rook Maxey, and Simmons. The line tells me those guys are not playing. I like DEN -5.5 for that reason and the more metaphorical reason that idiots bet the sixers without checking to see what's going on and will the sportsbetting Gods not make those people pay? I they they will. I know I payed anytime I did anything stupid.
SA AT MIN
MIN has a -13 avg margin of victory and there is money coming in on them. Line opened SA -6.5, now is it -5. Public would never be interested enough to bet a team with a -13 AMV to make the lone move a 1.5. You would a thousand $50 bettors all heading to the online books to pound MIN and that's not what happened here. MIN +5 has value here as a home dog.
ORL AT DAL
ORL has an AMV of -1, DALLAS is +3. This line opened at -7.5. Teams are very close in AMV but the line opened so high. ORL does have some injury issues and Fornier and Bamba are game time decisions. Fultz of course is out the year. ORL got toasted last night by the rockets and play again in TEX. ORL looks like they have some value off a blowout and their AMV is close, but I ask why did the books make the line so big for teams close in AMV. I wanna watch this line and see where it goes close to game time.
DEN -5.5
MIN +5
Watching ORL/DAL
DEN AT PHI
Here's my thoughts on this game. A few consensuses I check has 60% of the bets on Philly. That's probably because people see Philly a dog at home and fell head over heels without even checking to see who is playing and who is not. The line opened DEN -4 and now is DEN -5.5 even though there are more wagers on Philly. That leads me to believe the bigger wagers are on DEN. If Embiid Harris Milton and Curry don't play then that's option 1, 2, 3, 4 on offense that will not play. This is also why I'm considering the under. The leading scorers on the floor for Philly will need to be Danny Green, the rook Maxey, and Simmons. The line tells me those guys are not playing. I like DEN -5.5 for that reason and the more metaphorical reason that idiots bet the sixers without checking to see what's going on and will the sportsbetting Gods not make those people pay? I they they will. I know I payed anytime I did anything stupid.
SA AT MIN
MIN has a -13 avg margin of victory and there is money coming in on them. Line opened SA -6.5, now is it -5. Public would never be interested enough to bet a team with a -13 AMV to make the lone move a 1.5. You would a thousand $50 bettors all heading to the online books to pound MIN and that's not what happened here. MIN +5 has value here as a home dog.
ORL AT DAL
ORL has an AMV of -1, DALLAS is +3. This line opened at -7.5. Teams are very close in AMV but the line opened so high. ORL does have some injury issues and Fornier and Bamba are game time decisions. Fultz of course is out the year. ORL got toasted last night by the rockets and play again in TEX. ORL looks like they have some value off a blowout and their AMV is close, but I ask why did the books make the line so big for teams close in AMV. I wanna watch this line and see where it goes close to game time.
DEN -5.5
MIN +5
Watching ORL/DAL
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