- Status
I lost 2 NCAAB games by a point. Needed an Over and got two missed 1 and 1s in the last minute and a last shot that missed. St John's was tied very late and lose by 8 again missing the last shot. I feel your pain. Enjoy your writeups
It would be scary if it was money that moved the line. But once again, just like last night the line movement tonight was because both Kawhi snd PG were playing. It was known 1 hour before tip off. I posted they were both playing in seer’s thread well before tip off. All day there was rumour Kawhi might not play back to back and PG was questionable. So this line going from 2.5 to 5 wasn’t some steam money we needed to worry about. It was a roster issue. When you look at late line moves do you not check the injury report? Or do you strictly look at %s and where the money is going?
Here's the first head scratcher for THURS.
CLV AT MEM
CLV lost by double digits in both games at ORL, MEM is not a good time and without their young star they have exactly zero appeal to bet on. What's sexy about Memphis right now? Nothing and as a Fav in the game they have exactly zero appeal to public bettors. The Public bettor much rather bet on CLV rebounding after b2b double digit road losses, and get points to boot. CLV is the much more attractive side by far and the line opened MEM -4 and immediately went to -5. Why isn't the game a pk? MEM avg margin of victory is -5.5 and now you have to play 5 with them. What bettor wants to put their money there? Little to none. That usually means that's where your money needs to be. Grab the best line you can on MEM.
PHI AT BRK
Philly has looked great on offense in their homes stand. This year's supports cast to Harris, Embiid, and Simmons is playing well around them. BRK is missing their star in Durant and Erving will take a zillion shots tonight. Sixers have their team, I didn't hear about Embiid sitting but nonetheless Philly opened at -2.5 and immediately dropped to 1.5. Philly will be the more attractive side in the game to the bettor and that side has become even more attractive in the market place, you have to ask why. A few interesting things I've seen at some sportsbooks regarding this game:
1) 65% of the ML bets are on PHI -120 only 35% are for BRK at +110. In a game that's supposed to be neck and neck till the end, people rather lay the juice? Tells you hoe much more they think of Philly than BRK right now.
2) MGM books have the line BRK -1.5. They have BRK the favorite in the game. Weird. Unless they have all the BRK action they can handle and they want any Sixers actions they can get.
When I see things like this happen in the market, the team in BRK position has a much higher probability of covering the spread.
TOTALS TO WATCH:
One total tonight lies outside that rule of thumb I mention yesterday that the total to a game should be around the avg. of what the two teams score and give up in their games this year. All the totals lie within a point or two of the range of that guideline except one: MIN/POR.
MIN/PORT should have opened around 229.5 or so. It opened at 232.5 and already crept to 233. I take this to mean the books expect an outlier outcome on the event meaning a greater than normal offensive output. I'd rather go with what they think than what I think any day of the week.
CLV AT MEM
CLV lost by double digits in both games at ORL, MEM is not a good time and without their young star they have exactly zero appeal to bet on. What's sexy about Memphis right now? Nothing and as a Fav in the game they have exactly zero appeal to public bettors. The Public bettor much rather bet on CLV rebounding after b2b double digit road losses, and get points to boot. CLV is the much more attractive side by far and the line opened MEM -4 and immediately went to -5. Why isn't the game a pk? MEM avg margin of victory is -5.5 and now you have to play 5 with them. What bettor wants to put their money there? Little to none. That usually means that's where your money needs to be. Grab the best line you can on MEM.
PHI AT BRK
Philly has looked great on offense in their homes stand. This year's supports cast to Harris, Embiid, and Simmons is playing well around them. BRK is missing their star in Durant and Erving will take a zillion shots tonight. Sixers have their team, I didn't hear about Embiid sitting but nonetheless Philly opened at -2.5 and immediately dropped to 1.5. Philly will be the more attractive side in the game to the bettor and that side has become even more attractive in the market place, you have to ask why. A few interesting things I've seen at some sportsbooks regarding this game:
1) 65% of the ML bets are on PHI -120 only 35% are for BRK at +110. In a game that's supposed to be neck and neck till the end, people rather lay the juice? Tells you hoe much more they think of Philly than BRK right now.
2) MGM books have the line BRK -1.5. They have BRK the favorite in the game. Weird. Unless they have all the BRK action they can handle and they want any Sixers actions they can get.
When I see things like this happen in the market, the team in BRK position has a much higher probability of covering the spread.
TOTALS TO WATCH:
One total tonight lies outside that rule of thumb I mention yesterday that the total to a game should be around the avg. of what the two teams score and give up in their games this year. All the totals lie within a point or two of the range of that guideline except one: MIN/POR.
MIN/PORT should have opened around 229.5 or so. It opened at 232.5 and already crept to 233. I take this to mean the books expect an outlier outcome on the event meaning a greater than normal offensive output. I'd rather go with what they think than what I think any day of the week.
https://twitter.com/FantasyLabsNBA
this one ? ad and lebron in..
this one ? ad and lebron in..
- Status
