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Here we go guys with the first HEAD SCRATCHER of the day. I don't like to release NBA too early usually because of late scratches and rested players and late line moves that mean something. But this one is what it is so I may as well put it out there now but if you wanna play it my gut says wait because you will get a better line.
TOR AT PHX
This is just one of those games that don't make sense. Line opened PHX -3.5. Phoenix - one of the best teams in the NBA right now. Phoenix - one of the best D's right now. Playing home vs the struggling Raptors who are 1 - 5 and they only have to win by 4 and you win. The avg. bettor looks at this and says Merry Christmas. MGM will let you take PHX right now at -2.5. 2.5!!!!!! It's obvious the books want all the PHX action they can get and they will get it too. A few diff consensus spots I check have PHX sitting at 80% of the action right now and the line dipped a half point. Here's the caveat about betting this way, it means you are always on the scary side of the coin. These games are supposed to be a coin flip, but in some games one side feels so much safer than the other. Like the other night when the play was WASH playing at BRK. Or taking NYK at ATL. ATL and BRK felt like the way safer side. We all know Knicks sometimes come out ice cold and with ATL off coming out hot Knicks can be down 20 in a hurry. Again, tonight you'll need to be on the scary side of the coin to be in the right side. That's just my opinion. At game time my guess is that you'll find a 4 hopefully 4.5 with TOR. I have a simple computer model I built that takes into account off output, def output, recent play, miles traveled, days rest. My model tells me that PHX is -7 in this game. Now the model is off a few points high or low all the time but when I see 4 points of more diff than there's something up with the game. Something we don't know and could never find in any matchup page on the internet. Whatever it s, it's not meant to be in public hands.
And look at the total for this game. TOR games avg 216 points per and PHX games avg 208. Rule of thumb is that the total for the game should be about 212, midway between the averages. Total for this game opened at 217.5 - so already 5 points higher than expectations and it immediately climbed to 218.5. Wow. The avg bettor is gonna look at the scores in the games these teams played and they are not gonna love the over one bit in this game. Where is TOR getting 110 points from? PHX gives up 100/game at home. PHX hasn't yet played an overs game this year I believe. Their last game vs LAC landed on 219. I believe that was under but I'm not certain. I'd look into TOR this game and over for TOR team total.
TOR AT PHX
This is just one of those games that don't make sense. Line opened PHX -3.5. Phoenix - one of the best teams in the NBA right now. Phoenix - one of the best D's right now. Playing home vs the struggling Raptors who are 1 - 5 and they only have to win by 4 and you win. The avg. bettor looks at this and says Merry Christmas. MGM will let you take PHX right now at -2.5. 2.5!!!!!! It's obvious the books want all the PHX action they can get and they will get it too. A few diff consensus spots I check have PHX sitting at 80% of the action right now and the line dipped a half point. Here's the caveat about betting this way, it means you are always on the scary side of the coin. These games are supposed to be a coin flip, but in some games one side feels so much safer than the other. Like the other night when the play was WASH playing at BRK. Or taking NYK at ATL. ATL and BRK felt like the way safer side. We all know Knicks sometimes come out ice cold and with ATL off coming out hot Knicks can be down 20 in a hurry. Again, tonight you'll need to be on the scary side of the coin to be in the right side. That's just my opinion. At game time my guess is that you'll find a 4 hopefully 4.5 with TOR. I have a simple computer model I built that takes into account off output, def output, recent play, miles traveled, days rest. My model tells me that PHX is -7 in this game. Now the model is off a few points high or low all the time but when I see 4 points of more diff than there's something up with the game. Something we don't know and could never find in any matchup page on the internet. Whatever it s, it's not meant to be in public hands.
And look at the total for this game. TOR games avg 216 points per and PHX games avg 208. Rule of thumb is that the total for the game should be about 212, midway between the averages. Total for this game opened at 217.5 - so already 5 points higher than expectations and it immediately climbed to 218.5. Wow. The avg bettor is gonna look at the scores in the games these teams played and they are not gonna love the over one bit in this game. Where is TOR getting 110 points from? PHX gives up 100/game at home. PHX hasn't yet played an overs game this year I believe. Their last game vs LAC landed on 219. I believe that was under but I'm not certain. I'd look into TOR this game and over for TOR team total.
3 or more game road trips east teams out west or west teams out east you have them cover a minimum 1 game during a 3 game stretch
Often the first game
I think most people know that system
That is why you often get lower than normal lines for dogs
It is a game to consider taking the points.
They are off a clipper home loss ready to travel on a 3 game road trip east
Often the first game
I think most people know that system
That is why you often get lower than normal lines for dogs
It is a game to consider taking the points.
They are off a clipper home loss ready to travel on a 3 game road trip east
Ive personally never heard that, but be careful with trends. They can tell a useful story at times and others be very misleading. After all these are all independent events that have nothing to do with one another. If any given event has happened 1,000 times you can go in there an isolate ten of them that tell the story you want to tell.
Believe me, I tracked trends for a long time, very few stayed strong. Most fell back to the mean once enough trials piled up. There's one in the NFL that is pure gold. It went undefeated this year and it happened about 5 times, went undefeated last season too. That's the strongest one I ever seen, a lot has to happen for the trend to appear which is why it happened 5 times in 200 something total games. But it always happens a few times per year.
NBA is rough, real rough. Look at PORT bettors last night. PORT was up 20 in 2nd quarter. CHI wound up winning the game. I don't think people realize that when you win a bet it has nothing to do with what you saw in the research. You just happened to win a coin flip. Happens all the time. Lining yourself up with people who know more and have way more sophisticated ways of handicapping is just a better choice then trying to pick winners yourself.
Believe me, I tracked trends for a long time, very few stayed strong. Most fell back to the mean once enough trials piled up. There's one in the NFL that is pure gold. It went undefeated this year and it happened about 5 times, went undefeated last season too. That's the strongest one I ever seen, a lot has to happen for the trend to appear which is why it happened 5 times in 200 something total games. But it always happens a few times per year.
NBA is rough, real rough. Look at PORT bettors last night. PORT was up 20 in 2nd quarter. CHI wound up winning the game. I don't think people realize that when you win a bet it has nothing to do with what you saw in the research. You just happened to win a coin flip. Happens all the time. Lining yourself up with people who know more and have way more sophisticated ways of handicapping is just a better choice then trying to pick winners yourself.
Here's another game:
LAC at GSW
Opened LAC -4.5 and now is 1.5. Public doesn't really bet against teams like the LAC. GSW is thought to be in a transition and not the same team at all they once were. Line drastically fell, like not a half point at a time but literally all at once. Either they know George is not playing(he is a game time decision) or some really big bets came in on GSW. Clippers not playing good ball right now and GSW just scored 137 in back to back games. The winner of games that GSW played in this year is avg. 130 points per game, given the spread is small. You can easily see both teams in the 120s. Total is 230 right now. I think there's a very good chance they get that and that the Warriors win by like 5 - 7 points.
I'm watching the ATL/CHA game. That line has been silent. If it was acting normally, I'd expect a tick up on the fav to 6.5 or 7. CHA did not look good in Philly at all. Missed a ton of shots and their D, especially on the three, was bad. I wanna watch this game and see what happens leading up to the game.
Right now it is: TOR +3.5, OVR TOR TEAM TOTAL, GSW, OVERS GSW. I think these plays have value. Might be a few more in a couple hours.
LAC at GSW
Opened LAC -4.5 and now is 1.5. Public doesn't really bet against teams like the LAC. GSW is thought to be in a transition and not the same team at all they once were. Line drastically fell, like not a half point at a time but literally all at once. Either they know George is not playing(he is a game time decision) or some really big bets came in on GSW. Clippers not playing good ball right now and GSW just scored 137 in back to back games. The winner of games that GSW played in this year is avg. 130 points per game, given the spread is small. You can easily see both teams in the 120s. Total is 230 right now. I think there's a very good chance they get that and that the Warriors win by like 5 - 7 points.
I'm watching the ATL/CHA game. That line has been silent. If it was acting normally, I'd expect a tick up on the fav to 6.5 or 7. CHA did not look good in Philly at all. Missed a ton of shots and their D, especially on the three, was bad. I wanna watch this game and see what happens leading up to the game.
Right now it is: TOR +3.5, OVR TOR TEAM TOTAL, GSW, OVERS GSW. I think these plays have value. Might be a few more in a couple hours.
Hey Man, thanks for the info. I am a novice better to NBA, I mainly just stuck to football and cbb. NBA blows my mind, the number of games the athletes(prima donas). Motivation seems to be more of a factor than any other sport. I followed the Bulls/blazer's game last night. What a rollercoaster. I like to follow and bet in game(to try and beat the system). Not big bets but I like the challenge for entertainment. I mainly lose a couple bucks. The games I have followed seem to have similar pattern(s). Last night the blazers go 39, 15, 31, 23. Bulls 21, 24, 36, 30. Early the game looks like a blow out and here's where I normally bet the spread or over in this case. Then boom the teams or cold and I am way off of the numbers. Like I said stupid way to bet. In your opinion why do such drastic changes happen during the coarse of a game? Swings like this occur in any sport, but there seems to be distinct patterns in the NBA. Teams get a big lead then shut it down and coast. Are they afraid to embarrass the other team. Like I said I closely followed the game last night. With 9:41 left in the 2nd qtr the Blazers had 47 points(39 from the 1st). It was obvious they were dogging it. I spotted what I thought was an opportunity and bet the home team 1st half u65.5 +220, u61.5 +430 & u57.5 +1550. They kept turning it over, fouling and bricking 3's and ended the half with 57 points. Going cold happens, but this was just stupid. This will sound like a conspiracy. The growth of online and mobile gambling could be part of the reason. The NBA has partnered with William Hill. Early in games the books adjust as the game happens , bets come in, then the game turns direction from where it appeared to be going. This has got to favor the books. Wagering as hard enough to be on the right side and new factors seem to work against the bettor all the time. The score swings are the most obvious to me. Maybe with out fans there provide appreciation the players get bored and effort lags. Sorry for the rambling post. Besides avoiding any in game betting, are there any trends with situations and scoring where we can squeeze some extra pennies from the book? Thanks man
I’m thinking the Knicks have value one we get up to the 8 range. Utah laying 8 on the road vs a much improved Knicks team that has wins at MIL and at ATL. Now an 8 point dog at home. Line so high because Utah was beat up bad last night and bettors expecting a rebound game. Get the best number you can get on NYK.
this ATL/CHA game is a mystery to me. Line steady at 6, I expected the line to creep up given how CHA looked in Philly and ATL coming off a home loss to NYK. If this line dropped to 5, I’d be all over CHA but it’s just hung at 6.
I think Sixers have some value at -6.5. Wash just won two straight road games. Philly on a home stand and well rested. I can see Wash having tired legs here.
this ATL/CHA game is a mystery to me. Line steady at 6, I expected the line to creep up given how CHA looked in Philly and ATL coming off a home loss to NYK. If this line dropped to 5, I’d be all over CHA but it’s just hung at 6.
I think Sixers have some value at -6.5. Wash just won two straight road games. Philly on a home stand and well rested. I can see Wash having tired legs here.
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