FHMESQ May System Thread

[fhmesq44]

Monday, May 7:

Sunday Results:

3SRD - Diamondbacks +100 won 3-1 for +2.33
3SHF - Diamondbacks +100 won 3-1 for +2.33
<9.5 - Devil Rays +105 under 3-5 for +1
<8 - Phillies -115 over 8-5 for -5.55

Total - 3-1 for +.11

All others were no plays.

Series Record 122-2
Play Record 122-84-11
Game Record 95-68-10
Units +60.5336 or +$6053.36

Monday possible plays

Nationals <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
Nationals >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Nationals <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
Orioles <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
Mariners <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
Phillies <8 if 8 or less to win 10.38
4DRD - Braves to win 1 if SD +110 or more
Marlins <8 to win 2.1 if 8 or less
Reds <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
Mets >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Giants <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
Diamonbacks >9 to win 1 if exactly 9

G/L

Detailed Records:

4DHF

Game 1 = 8-7
Game 2 = 5-2
Game 3 = 1-1
Game 4 = 1-0

Total +15.0073

4DRD

Game 1 = 11-10
Game 2 = 6-2 (pending Det -1.34, Minn -1.61)
Game 3 = 0-1 (pending Mil -4.71)
Game 4 = 1-0

Total +10.34

<8

Game 1 = 10-5-2
Game 2 = 0-4 (pending Fla -1.1)
Game 3 = 2-2
Game 4 = 0-1-1 (pending Phil -9.38)

Total -18.72 - Loss LAD -20.24

>9

Game 1 = 12-8-5
Game 2 = 5-2-1 (pending LAA -1.25)
Game 3 = 1-1-2
Game 4 = 1-0

Total +17.75

<9.5

Game 1 = 7-5
Game 2 = 2-2 (pending Minn -1.05)
Game 3 = 1-1
Game 4 = 1-0

Total +9.95

Mo>

Game 1 = 5-3
Game 2 = 2-1
Game 3 = 0-1
Game 4 = 0-1

Total -14.63 - Loss Pitts -21.63

Mo<

Game 1 = 4-2
Game 2 = 2-0

Total +6

3SHF

Game 1 = 5-5
Game 2 = 4-1
Game 3 = 0-1
Game 4 = 1-0

Total +10

3SHD

Game 1 = 2-2
Game 2 = 0-2
Game 3 = 1-1
Game 4 = 1-0

Total +4

3SRD

Game 1 = 14-7
Game 2 = 5-2
Game 3 = 1-1
Game 4 = 1-0

Total +21.0015

 

[A10Expert]

question

Hey, just wondering, what's the difference between your play record and your game record?

 

[fhmesq44]

Hey, just wondering, what's the difference between your play record and your game record?

Play record is for each posted play, game record is by game. For example, yesterday Diamondbacks were a play under two systems and would count for 2-0 under the play record but only 1-0 under game record since it is only 1 game.

 

[fhmesq44]

For those of you that are interested, WNBA system explanation is posted.

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?p=4105890#post4105890

 

[fhmesq44]

Tuesday, May 8:

Monday Results:

>9 - Nationals -125 under 0-3 for -1.25
>9 - Diamondbacks -110 under 4-3 for -1.1
>9 - Mets +110 over 9-4 for +1

Total - 1-2 for -1.35

All others were no plays.

Series Record 123-2
Play Record 123-86-11
Game Record 96-70-10
Units +59.1836 or +$5918.36

Tuesday possible plays

Nationals <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
Nationals >9 to win 2.25 if exactly 9
Nationals <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
Orioles <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
Mariners <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
Tigers >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
3SRD - Yankees to win 1 if Texas +100 or more
Red Sox >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Red Sox <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
Royals >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
4DRD - Twins to win 1 if CWS +110 or more
White Sox >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Twins >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Twins <9.5 to win 2.05 if exactly 9.5
4DHF - Angels to win 1 if -130 or more
Angels >9 to win 2.25 if exactly 9
Phillies <8 if 8 or less to win 10.38
4DRD - Braves to win 1 if SD +110 or more
3SRD - Braves to win 1 if SD +100 or more
3SHF - Marlins to win 1 if -110 or more
Marlins <8 to win 2.1 if 8 or less
Reds <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
Mets >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Giants <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
Diamonbacks >9 to win 2.1 if exactly 9
Pirates >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
3SHD - Pirates to win 1 if Cubs +100 or more
Cubs <8 to win 1 if 8 or less


G/L

 

[scimonji]

Tuesday, May 8:

Monday Results:

>9 - Mets +110 over 9-4 for +1


Tuesday possible plays

Mets >9 to win 1 if exactly 9

Mets was over yesterday... it is a play again?

 

[fhmesq44]

Good eye Scimonji, no, Mets aren't a play. Reposting

Tuesday possible plays

Nationals <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
Nationals >9 to win 2.25 if exactly 9
Nationals <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
Orioles <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
Mariners <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
Tigers >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
3SRD - Yankees to win 1 if Texas +100 or more
Red Sox >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Red Sox <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
Royals >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
4DRD - Twins to win 1 if CWS +110 or more
White Sox >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Twins >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Twins <9.5 to win 2.05 if exactly 9.5
4DHF - Angels to win 1 if -130 or more
Angels >9 to win 2.25 if exactly 9
Phillies <8 if 8 or less to win 10.38
4DRD - Braves to win 1 if SD +110 or more
3SRD - Braves to win 1 if SD +100 or more
3SHF - Marlins to win 1 if -110 or more
Marlins <8 to win 2.1 if 8 or less
Reds <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
Giants <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
Diamonbacks >9 to win 2.1 if exactly 9
Pirates >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
3SHD - Pirates to win 1 if Cubs +100 or more
Cubs <8 to win 1 if 8 or less


G/L

 

[trains40]

Nationals <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
Nationals >9 to win 2.25 if exactly 9
Nationals <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
Orioles <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
Mariners <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
Tigers >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
3SRD - Yankees to win 1 if Texas +100 or more
Red Sox >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Red Sox <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
Royals >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
4DRD - Twins to win 1 if CWS +110 or more
White Sox >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Twins >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Twins <9.5 to win 2.05 if exactly 9.5
4DHF - Angels to win 1 if -130 or more
Angels >9 to win 2.25 if exactly 9
Phillies <8 if 8 or less to win 10.38
4DRD - Braves to win 1 if SD +110 or more
3SRD - Braves to win 1 if SD +100 or more
3SHF - Marlins to win 1 if -110 or more
Marlins <8 to win 2.1 if 8 or less
Reds <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
Giants <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
Diamonbacks >9 to win 2.1 if exactly 9
Pirates >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
3SHD - Pirates to win 1 if Cubs +100 or more
Cubs <8 to win 1 if 8 or less



EXPLAIN THIS ALITTLE STILL CONFUSED ON WHAT YOU ARE ACTUALLY PLAYING?

 

[A.C.Slater]

Nationals <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
Nationals >9 to win 2.25 if exactly 9
Nationals <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
Orioles <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
Mariners <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
Tigers >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
3SRD - Yankees to win 1 if Texas +100 or more
Red Sox >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Red Sox <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
Royals >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
4DRD - Twins to win 1 if CWS +110 or more
White Sox >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Twins >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Twins <9.5 to win 2.05 if exactly 9.5
4DHF - Angels to win 1 if -130 or more
Angels >9 to win 2.25 if exactly 9
Phillies <8 if 8 or less to win 10.38
4DRD - Braves to win 1 if SD +110 or more
3SRD - Braves to win 1 if SD +100 or more
3SHF - Marlins to win 1 if -110 or more
Marlins <8 to win 2.1 if 8 or less
Reds <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
Giants <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
Diamonbacks >9 to win 2.1 if exactly 9
Pirates >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
3SHD - Pirates to win 1 if Cubs +100 or more
Cubs <8 to win 1 if 8 or less



EXPLAIN THIS ALITTLE STILL CONFUSED ON WHAT YOU ARE ACTUALLY PLAYING?

Go back to his originial post in this thread, there is a link to the April thread where a lot of questions are answered. Basically, he has found a number of martingale systems whose variances are in a predictable range. The data he used to find these systems was based off of lines from gametime pitches, so he bases his plays for the day off of the final lines. For example if the Nats line is 9 at gametime he will bet the over, which is a game 2 from a previous loss, or if its 9 at game time he will bet the under (a separate system).

Keep looking back at previous threads and watching his plays over a week or so. You will be able to pick it up soon.

 

[fhmesq44]

Go back to his originial post in this thread, there is a link to the April thread where a lot of questions are answered. Basically, he has found a number of martingale systems whose variances are in a predictable range. The data he used to find these systems was based off of lines from gametime pitches, so he bases his plays for the day off of the final lines. For example if the Nats line is 9 at gametime he will bet the over, which is a game 2 from a previous loss, or if its 9 at game time he will bet the under (a separate system).

Keep looking back at previous threads and watching his plays over a week or so. You will be able to pick it up soon.

Thanks for answering Slater. One correction to your last sentence

For example if the Nats line is 9 at gametime he will bet the over, which is a game 2 from a previous loss, or if its 9.5 at game time he will bet the under (a separate system).

Trains, these systems do take some work as you have to monitor the lines as it gets close to game time. Closing lines with 5dimes determine when a game is a play and when it isn't. I post all of the possible plays for a day and it is up to anyone who decides to play to monitor them for their own plays. Obviously with a line like NYY -220, you can play that and not wait for game time to make sure Texas will close at +100 or more.

Hopefully this helps, but please do read through the April thread as it answers most, if not all, of the questions you may have.

 

[trains40]

Red Sox >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Red Sox <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5

SO YOU ARE SAYING THE LINE IS 9 RIGHT NOW IF IT STAYS THERE HIT THE OVER AND IF IT GOES TO 9.5 HIT THE UNDER. IS THIS CORRECT?

 

[fhmesq44]

Red Sox >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Red Sox <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5

SO YOU ARE SAYING THE LINE IS 9 RIGHT NOW IF IT STAYS THERE HIT THE OVER AND IF IT GOES TO 9.5 HIT THE UNDER. IS THIS CORRECT?

Yes.

I realize these two possible plays may seem incompatible from a handicapping standpoint, but they are two entirely different scenarios based on system plays.

Unfortunately the o/u number changes more often than I expected so it makes playing the o/u a bit of a pain in the ass. However, based on my research, I think it is worthwhile.

 

[trains40]

Fhmesq, You On Yahoo If So Hit Me Up

 

[fhmesq44]

I don't have your IM any longer, I got a new computer since we last IM and they didn't transfer for some reason. I think you still have mine. If not, it is the first 6 letters of my username on here.

 

[trains40]

You Are Not On?

 

[A.C.Slater]

Go back to his originial post in this thread, there is a link to the April thread where a lot of questions are answered. Basically, he has found a number of martingale systems whose variances are in a predictable range. The data he used to find these systems was based off of lines from gametime pitches, so he bases his plays for the day off of the final lines. For example if the Nats line is 9 at gametime he will bet the over, which is a game 2 from a previous loss, or if its 9 at game time he will bet the under (a separate system).

Keep looking back at previous threads and watching his plays over a week or so. You will be able to pick it up soon.

Whoops, yea meant 9.5 in that last sentence. For those having trouble monitoring the lines, I've switched to just using the 3S, 4D, and Mo systems. Usually I can check in within a couple hours before game time and get most of the bets in, then, if there are still some close calls as to whether a team will hit the qualifying moneyline, I will call in at 7:00 and check the live line via phone. The O/U lines jump around more often, too much work if you can't be at a computer often.

 

[fhmesq44]

Yeah, it is kind of a pain in the ass. The o/u lines move much more than I ever expected them to. A lot times you can exclude plays (a line isn't likely to go from say 10.5 to 9) but I always wait until immediately before game time to make the plays. Most of the games are off before I leave work so it is easy for me to monitor.

 

[fhmesq44]

Wednesday, May 9:

Tuesday Results:

3SRD - Yankees -220 won 8-2 for +1
>9 - Royals -105 under 1-6 for -1.05
4DHF - Angels -135 lost 5-1 for -1.35
>9 = Angels -115 under 1-5 for -2.59
<9.5 - Reds +100 over 6-7 for -1
3SRD - Braves -117 won 3-2 for +1
<8 = Cubs <7.5 -100 under 3-4 for +1
<9.5 - Nationals -120 over 4-6 for -1.2
>9 - Diamondbacks -115 under 2-3 for -2.415

Total - 3-6 for -6.605

All others were no plays.

Series Record 126-2
Play Record 126-92-11
Game Record 99-76-10
Units +52.5786 or +$5257.86

Wednesday plays

Mo< - Yankees (game 1, fade Texas) to win 1

Wednesday possible plays

Nationals <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
Nationals >9 to win 2.25 if exactly 9
Nationals <9.5 to win 2.2 if exactly 9.5
Orioles <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
Mariners <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
Tigers >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Red Sox >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Red Sox <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
A's >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Royals >9 to win 2.05 if exactly 9
4DRD - Twins to win 1 if CWS +110 or more
White Sox <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
White Sox >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Twins >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Twins <9.5 to win 2.05 if exactly 9.5
4DHF - Angels to win 2.35 if -130 or more
3SRD - Angels to win 1 if Cle +100 or more
3SHF - Angels to win 1 if -110 or more
Angels >9 to win 4.84 if exactly 9
Phillies <8 if 8 or less to win 10.38
Phillies >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Diamonbacks >9 to win 4.515 if exactly 9
4DRD - Braves to win 1 if SD +110 or more
Marlins <8 to win 2.1 if 8 or less
Astros <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
Reds <9.5 to win 2 if exactly 9.5
Giants <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
Pirates >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
3SHD - Pirates to win 1 if Cubs +100 or more
Cubs <8 to win 1 if 8 or less

Wash and SF are early games. G/L

 

[fhmesq44]

reposting plays. Cubs <8 is not a play.

Wednesday plays

Mo< - Yankees (game 1, fade Texas) to win 1

Wednesday possible plays

Nationals <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
Nationals >9 to win 2.25 if exactly 9
Nationals <9.5 to win 2.2 if exactly 9.5
Orioles <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
Mariners <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
Tigers >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Red Sox >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Red Sox <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
A's >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Royals >9 to win 2.05 if exactly 9
4DRD - Twins to win 1 if CWS +110 or more
White Sox <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
White Sox >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Twins >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Twins <9.5 to win 2.05 if exactly 9.5
4DHF - Angels to win 2.35 if -130 or more
3SRD - Angels to win 1 if Cle +100 or more
3SHF - Angels to win 1 if -110 or more
Angels >9 to win 4.84 if exactly 9
Phillies <8 if 8 or less to win 10.38
Phillies >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Diamonbacks >9 to win 4.515 if exactly 9
4DRD - Braves to win 1 if SD +110 or more
Marlins <8 to win 2.1 if 8 or less
Astros <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
Reds <9.5 to win 2 if exactly 9.5
Giants <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
Pirates >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
3SHD - Pirates to win 1 if Cubs +100 or more

Wash and SF are early games. G/L

 

[fhmesq44]

Will post the results from today in the morning.

Thursday possible plays

Orioles <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
Mariners <9.5 to win 2.15 if exactly 9.5
Tigers >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Red Sox >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Red Sox <9.5 to win 2 if exactly 9.5
Blue Jays 3SRD to win 1 if Bos +100 or more
Blue Jays <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
A's >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Royals >9 to win 2.05 if exactly 9
4DRD - Twins to win 2.3 if CWS +110 or more
White Sox <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
White Sox >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Twins >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Twins <9.5 to win 2.05 if exactly 9.5
Devil Rays >9 to win 1 if exactly 9
Marlins <8 to win 2.1 if 8 or less
4DRD - Marlins to win 1 if LAD +110 or more
Astros <9.5 to win 1 if exactly 9.5
3SRD - Reds to win 1 if Hou +100 or more
Reds <9.5 to win 2 if exactly 9.5
Giants <8 to win 1 if 8 or less
Pirates >9 to win 1 if exactly 9

G/L. Bunch of early games tomorrow. I will post the LAA/Cle possible plays when the game ends or in the morning.