Fantasy Football News 2014/15

Search

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Julius Thomas on record TD pace[/h][h=3]Broncos star tight end keeps on scoring; Cam Newton runs wild again[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Tristan H. Cockcroft[/FONT] | ESPN.com

We might be witnessing another record-setting performance by a [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Denver Broncos[/FONT] player -- and it's somebody other than [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Peyton Manning[/FONT] this time.Oh, sure, Manning completed his 504th, 505th and 506th career touchdown passes on Sunday, moving within two of Brett Favre's all-time record, but it was the man who caught two of them who is on a staggering pace: Julius Thomas.
With those two receiving touchdowns, Thomas has nine this season, the most by any tight end in history through his team's first five games and matching Calvin Johnson's record for a player at any position through five games (2011). They also put Thomas more than halfway to Rob Gronkowski's single-season record for touchdowns by a tight end (17); Thomas is on pace for 29, which would not only shatter Gronkowski's record, but also Randy Moss' overall single-season receiving touchdowns record (23, 2007).
With Jimmy Graham's health now in question, Thomas has asserted himself an outstanding candidate for No. 1 fantasy tight end status. Thomas has a position-best 79 fantasy points and has done it in just five games; the No. 2 tight end, Greg Olsen, has 67 and has scored those in six contests. Gronkowski is tied for fourth with 57. Thomas' seasonal pace for fantasy points is 253, which would be 20 more than Gronkowski had when he set the tight end record for a single season with 233 in 2011.
But Thomas is not the all-time leader in fantasy points by a tight end (post-1960) through five games:
Player<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Year</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS
(thru 5 G)</center>
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS
(season)</center>
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Games
(season)</center>
Jimmy Graham20139321116
Antonio Gates20108713410
Julius Thomas201479????
Ben Coates19947814916
Mike Ditka19637112114
Julius Thomas20137014416
Vernon Davis scored 74 FPTS through his first 5 games of 2013, and 156 in 15 games total that season, but he missed Week 3 with a hamstring injury.

<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>


[h=3]The return of Cam Newton?[/h]Through his first four games of 2014, Cam Newton seemingly wasn't his old self. Fresh off ankle surgery, as well as a hairline fracture in one of his ribs during the preseason, he amassed 14 carries for 42 yards and no touchdowns for Carolina. To put those numbers into perspective, they were not only his worst rushing totals during any four-game span in his four-year career, they were his worst by eight carries and 62 yards.
So while Newton's fantasy owners are surely celebrating his 33-point Week 6 outburst, the most important takeaway was his rushing stat line: 17 carries for 107 yards and a score. Those represented a 16-point fantasy contribution with his legs alone, the third-most he has contributed in a single game thus far.
They gave Newton 18 career games during which he contributed double-digit fantasy points via rushing stats, tying him with Randall Cunningham for the third-most by any quarterback since 1960. Michael Vick (25) and Steve Young (19) are the only two who had more, and Vick is also the only one who has more games of 15-plus rushing fantasy points (nine) than Newton's six (which is tied with Steve McNair and Tobin Rote for second place during that time span).
During his career, Newton has accrued 366 of his 1,031 fantasy points via rushing statistics, a healthy 35.5 percent.
[h=3]Miscellany[/h]• Speaking of Peyton Manning: He's not on pace to shatter any season records; that's more a product of how high he set the bar in 2013 rather than how he has performed through five games in 2014. With his 21 fantasy points in Week 5, Manning has 115, and is on a season pace of 368. Only four quarterbacks since 1960 have scored more in a single season: Manning, with 406 in 2013; Aaron Rodgers, with 385 in 2011; Drew Brees, with 380 in 2011; and Tom Brady, with 378 in 2007.
Incidentally, Manning isn't even the leader in fantasy points by a quarterback this season. That honor belongs to Indianapolis' Andrew Luck, with 146, putting him on pace for 389 points, which would be second-most at the position since 1960.
• More records: Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray became only the second player in history to manage six consecutive 100-yard rushing efforts to begin a season, joining Jim Brown (1958). Still, Murray has a long way to go to match Brown's 1958 campaign in terms of fantasy prowess:
Brown, 1958: 184 fantasy points in his first six games
Murray, 2014: 116 fantasy points in his first six games

Brown would have finished the 1958 season with 267 fantasy points in 12 games, using ESPN standard scoring settings (NFL seasons were just 12 games then). That would be a 356-point pace in a 16-game schedule, a total exceeded only four times by any running back since 1960. Murray is on pace for 309 fantasy points, which would rank 19th among running backs since 1960.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]RBs to target in trades, on waivers[/h][h=3]High-end, midlevel and bench players you should add to your team[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]KC Joyner[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

Running backs in fantasy football are like starting pitching in baseball; a team can never have enough quality depth at that position. And this season it has been particularly difficult for some owners to acquire viable starting options every week.
This week's Fantasy Foresight article will aim to assist with this perpetual search for rushing talent by reviewing eight running backs with the potential to provide immediate help. Candidates on this list include high-end trade targets, midlevel trade targets, bench players who could have starting-caliber value and pickup targets available in most leagues.
Also included below are four players whose Week 6 successes or struggles will continue this season, two players who will turn things around after a subpar Week 6, and three early waiver-wire suggestions heading into Week 7.

[h=3]High-end trade targets[/h]
i


Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers
Lacy was on many fantasy owners' sell lists in Weeks 1-3 when he scored five or fewer points in all of those contests. He is likely to be on that type of list again following a four-point showing against Miami in Week 6.
<offer></offer>
As understandable as this type of reaction is, it isn't a high-percentage move from a matchup perspective.The Packers have four green-rated run defenses left on their schedule (green being a designation of a highly favorable matchup). Lacy posted double-digit fantasy totals in the two green-rated run defense matchups the Packers have faced this year, so he has the potential to post at least four more games at that level. Those team owners who have Lacy on their roster should stand pat. Those who see him on the trading block should make an offer and reap the rewards later on.
i


Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals
It might not seem like it, but Ellington is a top-10 fantasy running back on a points-per-game basis (11.2, ranked 10th among backs with at least four games) and is averaging just short of 100 yards from scrimmage per game (98.6). He has three green-rated matchups on the docket for the rest of this season, and could have five if St. Louis -- a team that has allowed opposing running backs to post 100 or more rushing yards in three straight games -- continues down its current path, and finds itself downgraded to a green run defense rating.

[h=3]Midlevel trade targets[/h]
i


Reggie Bush, Detroit Lions
In the case of Calvin Johnson, the Lions have adopted a philosophy of getting him close to full strength before putting him back in the lineup. The presence of Joique Bell and Theo Riddick could allow Detroit to do the same thing with Bush during his rehab from an ankle injury. This could be a boon for Bush's fantasy owners over the long term, as he has the potential to be an impact player during the fantasy football playoffs when he has green-rated run defense matchups in Weeks 13, 15 and 16 (and Week 17 for those teams whose playoffs last that long).
i


Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans
Sankey saw the field for only 13 total snaps in Weeks 1 and 2. He then had solid per-game snap levels in Weeks 3-5 (26, 21 and 22). That upward trend continued when Shonn Greene's injury kept him out of the Week 6 contest. This opened the door for Sankey to be the bell cow, and he responded with 18 carries and one reception. Expect Sankey's playing time volume to continue to increase, and to see that extra workload lead to a corresponding increase in fantasy value.

[h=3]Bench players with starter potential[/h]
i


Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals
Hill leads the league in rushing yards inside the opponent's 5-yard line (12) and is tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns in that situation (three). Those two factors give Hill a solid scoring base regardless of his overall workload. Coming into the season, it was thought that Hill could turn the Bengals' backfield into a platoon situation, and Giovani Bernard's current workload pace (20.8 carries/receptions per game) could still make that possibility a reality.
i


Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers
In NFL history, 36 running backs have posted 2,000 or more career carries. Of the 33 backs whose careers already have ended, only 22 were able to make it to the 2,500-carry mark, and only 15 made it to the 2,700-carry total.
Frank Gore currently has 2,264 career carries heading into Monday night's showdown against St. Louis, and looks to be on a pace that could move him to the 2,500-carry total by year's end. That means he is in the area where roughly half of his historical predecessors in this category have faltered. Hyde would be the direct beneficiary if Gore were to suddenly hit the performance wall that often accompanies this level of wear and tear. And Hyde has been very effective so far this season when he's gotten touches.

[h=3]Waiver targets[/h]
i


Bobby Rainey, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rainey currently leads the Buccaneers in yards from scrimmage (401). He has also bested Doug Martin in a wide variety of metrics, including yards per carry (4.9 for Rainey, 2.9 for Martin), yards after contact (2.0 for Rainey, 1.5 for Martin) and yards per reception (8.7 for Rainey, 7.9 for Martin). Rainey also had a nearly equal number of rushes/targets in Week 6 as Martin (13 for Martin, 10 for Rainey). Add it all up, and it means Rainey has far too much upside to be owned in only 10.8 percent of ESPN leagues.
i


Joseph Randle, Dallas Cowboys
Last week's Fantasy Foresight article pointed out that DeMarco Murray was on pace to get 464 touches, a mark that would be the second highest for anyone, all time. After posting 29 carries and six receptions against Seattle in Week 6, Murray is now on pace for 480 touches this year. It's possible Murray holds up for 10 more games, but if he doesn't, Randle is first in line to take over as the lead back. That makes him worthy of a higher ownership level than his current 0.4 percent.

[h=3]Week 6 performances that will continue[/h]
i


Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens
This recommendation has to come with the caveat that Flacco should not be expected to throw five touchdown passes in the first half of every game. Having noted this, Flacco does rank second in the NFL in touchdown passes on vertical throws (seven scoring plays on passes traveling 11 or more yards downfield). Upcoming matchups against Atlanta, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Tennessee -- teams that have all had struggles against the pass this year -- will give Flacco opportunities to build upon that vertical scoring total.
i


Brandon LaFell, WR, New England Patriots
LaFell ranked seventh in vertical yards per attempt (VYPA) among wide receivers in the 2011 season (14.7) and was nearly as good in 2012 (14.2, ranked 16th). New England brought him in with the idea that he could serve that downfield role, and he is starting to prove that idea correct. Since Week 3, he ranks second among Patriots wide receivers in vertical targets (10) and second on the team in vertical receiving yards (118). He is part of the reason the Patriots offense is starting to turn things around.
i


Mike Wallace, WR, Miami Dolphins
Wallace's inconsistent play has caused fantasy owners much consternation over the past couple of seasons, but this year isn't one of those seasons. He ranks 12th in wide receiver fantasy points per game (10.4) and came into Week 6 with one of the best consistency ratings at that position. It boggles the mind that despite this performance, Wallace was started in only 33.6 percent of ESPN leagues in Week 6.
i


Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
The absence of Calvin Johnson from the lineup is a major factor in Stafford posting only 11 points in each of the past two games. As noted above, the Lions are taking a cautious approach in bringing Megatron back from his injury. Part of the reason Detroit can take this tack is a deep set of quality running backs. With matchups forthcoming against New Orleans and Atlanta -- teams that have both struggled against the run of late -- expect the Lions to continue leaning on the those running backs. This move will likely keep Stafford's point totals below their usual level.

[h=3]Week 6 performances that won't continue[/h]
i


Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Denver Broncos
Sanders posted season-low totals in receptions (3), receiving yards (38) and fantasy points (3) against the New York Jets, but it wasn't because of a lack of vertical pass attempts. Peyton Manning had 12 throws at this depth level, and five of them were directed to Sanders. That was a team-high in vertical targets, so don't view the subpar production numbers as a new paradigm; Sanders is still one of Peyton's go-to downfield targets.
i


Alfred Morris, RB, Washington Redskins
Facing Seattle and Arizona in back-to-back contests in Weeks 5 and 6 is the type of thing that led Morris to post a total of 26 carries for 70 yards and a combined seven fantasy points. Facing Tennessee, Dallas and Minnesota in Weeks 7-9 should be just the tonic Morris needs to get over this recent slump.

[h=3]Three waiver-wire pickups to make[/h]
i


Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders (owned in 1.8 percent of ESPN leagues)
Carr had a terrible Week 3 game against New England (four fantasy points) and left the Week 4 game against Miami early with an injury. Despite these issues, his fantasy point-per-game total (13) is within two points of Ryan Tannehill (14.8),Alex Smith (14) and Ben Roethlisberger (13.7). Any fantasy owner in a two-quarterback league should consider adding Carr to the roster.
i


Andre Holmes, WR, Oakland Raiders (owned in 0.4 percent of ESPN leagues)
Holmes has more vertical receiving yards per game (53.5) than Michael Floyd(50.8), Kelvin Benjamin (50.3), Dez Bryant (45.3) or Jeremy Maclin (43.2). It's possible this is a mirage, but there comes a point when the sample size is large enough to say this is more trend than accident. In Holmes' case, it's getting pretty close to the "trend" sample size.
i


Clay Harbor, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars (owned in 0.0 percent of ESPN leagues)
Harbor and Blake Bortles aren't going to make anyone drop Philip Rivers andAntonio Gates, but they have been hitting a stride as of late. Since Week 4, Harbor has scored more fantasy points per game (8) than Larry Donnell (7.7),Delanie Walker (7.7) or Martellus Bennett (7). Quality fill-in fantasy tight ends are hard to come by, and Harbor looks like a good candidate in this area.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Free-agent finds for Week 7[/h]
By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Waiver-wire news changes fast and furious throughout the week as injuries and depth-chart shenanigans overtake us. So be sure to follow me on Twitter by clicking on the link next to my headshot at the bottom of the column, and I'll keep you updated as news warrants. Let's get to the best fantasy roster additions heading into Week 7:
Standard ESPN league finds
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Minnesota Vikings (owned in 5.1 percent of ESPN leagues): Last week I recorded a Film Room evaluating McKinnon, little suspecting that the Vikings would make him their starter in Week 6. Jet played 44 snaps compared to 14 for Matt Asiata, and he out-touched Asiata 17-3. Does this mean a permanent changing of the guard? I've heard speculation that the Vikings made this switch because they were concerned about the Detroit Lions' front four, and they'll go right back to Asiata next week. We're all just speculating until they play another game, but my guess is this change sticks. McKinnon isn't a bruiser, but he's got acceleration and quickness in droves, and enough strength and power to throw off defensive backs. He should be added in all leagues.

Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants (7.9 percent): Victor Cruz is out for the year with a torn patellar tendon, which elevates Rueben Randle and Beckham in the pecking order. I'd first check to see if Randle is available in my league, but if he isn't, add the rookie ODB. The Giants spent the 12th overall pick on Beckham this spring, and his hamstring is finally healthy. He was disappointing Sunday night with only two catches on three targets, but I have to believe that's the fewest chances he'll get in a game the rest of the year. The Giants hope Beckham can be an Antonio Brown-like player on the outside.

Mohamed Sanu, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (38.9 percent): With A.J. Green reportedly unlikely to play in Week 7 and Marvin Jones potentially facing surgery on his problematic ankle, Sanu gets at least one more game asAndy Dalton's top target. For three quarters Sunday, that didn't go so well: Sanu was stuck on three grabs for 19 yards, though he did have a long gain down the seam called back because of an illegal shift. Fortunately for Sanu, he grabbed four for 74 and a TD in a frantic fourth quarter, then another three for 27 in a full overtime period. All this is by way of saying: Sanu is a lot like T.J. Houshmandzadeh. He's a possession receiver and game flow can shut him down. However, he's also a nice red zone target. He's addable and startable for one more week, but I view him as a No. 3 fantasy receiver.
Buffalo Bills defense/special teams (37.6 percent): As always, it's tempting to stream the defense facing the Jaguars, and this week that's the Cleveland Browns (4.8 percent). I'm OK with them, but my concern is that they haven't been particularly good this year: They give up a lot of yards, and don't generate many turnovers. So I prefer the Bills, if you can grab them. They're at home against the Vikings' rookie QB, and seek amends for a bad Week 6 performance. And they are good: The D-line is one of the league's best, and team-wide they're adept stopping the run.
Other solid waiver adds, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Ronnie Hillman, RB, Broncos (5.3 percent); Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns (10.7 percent); James Jones, WR, Raiders (46.2 percent); Josh Gordon, WR, Browns (11.2 percent); Markus Wheaton, WR, Steelers (16.5 percent); Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs (46.5 percent); Owen Daniels, TE, Ravens (31.0 percent).
Speculative standard-league finds
Andre Holmes, WR, Oakland Raiders (0.5 percent): You may remember Holmes from Thanksgiving Day last year, when he caught seven passes for 136 yards against his old team, the Dallas Cowboys. For a 6-foot-4, 223-pound player, Holmes moves well and attacks the ball with freaky-long arms. To this point in his career, though, he's been inconsistent; he hadn't come near a 100-yard receiving day again until this past Sunday, when he registered 121 and two TDs. Holmes has three scores in his past two games, so perhaps he's figuring stuff out. Then again, there are lot of Raiders WRs involved right now: James Jones and Brice Butler also scored Sunday, and if you think Derek Carr is ready to support three fantasy-relevant WRs every week, well, you believe in Carr more than I do. I don't mind Holmes as a speculative add, I just wonder whether he'll find consistency.
Brandon Bolden, RB, New England Patriots (1.8 percent): Stevan Ridley is out for the year with a torn ACL, adding yet another complication to one of the league's hardest-to-decipher backfields. Shane Vereen hasn't seen double-digit carries in a game this year and toted it five times Sunday, twice after Ridley's injury. In fact, Bolden was the immediate prime beneficiary with six carries after Ridley got injured, but it's worth noting that James White (0.3 percent) was inactive for Week 6, at least partly because Bolden plays on special teams. Considering the glowing reports on White in training camp, he could get in the mix, too, as could practice squad player Jonas Gray (0.0 percent).
Storm Johnson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (1.1 percent): With Toby Gerhart shelved by a foot injury, Johnson started Sunday and vultured an early 1-yard TD, but like Gerhart and every other Jags RB this season, he was unable to find any running room. His stat line (11 touches, 24 yards) was nightmarish, as was the final backfield snap count: Johnson played 18 snaps while Jordan Todman played 33 and Denard Robinson 29. No doubt part of that was because of the scoreboard: Jacksonville trailed for most of the day. But it wasn't an auspicious beginning for the rookie Johnson, nor is there any guarantee that Gerhart will be out for a long time. Perhaps the Jags will stay more committed to Johnson in another non-horrible matchup this week versus the Browns.
Deeper-league finds
Tre Mason, RB, St. Louis Rams (2.1 percent): Zac Stacy couldn't find much room to run Monday night and didn't play much in the second half, adding to speculation that he isn't healthy. (It was odd, however, to see Stacy re-inserted on the Rams' final desperation drive, a situation where he normally wouldn't play.) Anyway, something funky is going on with last year's surprise star, and Mason could take advantage. He showed some juice on the first six touches of his regular-season NFL career, although he proved he's utterly unready to be a pro-level pass-blocker. For the moment, this backfield looks fairly hands-off, but Mason could be worth a stash.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers (25.6 percent): Heck, maybe I should've put the Daily Show on the standard-league list, but we've been burned so many times by these Panthers backs. Stewart is reportedly close to returning from his knee injury, which would probably put him right back in a starting role with DeAngelo Williams still out. But Fozzy Whittaker (0.1 percent) and/or Darrin Reaves (1.3 percent) also will probably mix in, and Cam Newton got back to his running ways Sunday. You'd have to be pretty desperate to start Stewart.

Juwan Thompson, RB, Denver Broncos (0.7 percent): Ronnie Hillman was the clear starter in Montee Ball's absence, but the second man up wasn'tC.J. Anderson (38.8 percent), it was Thompson, an undrafted rookie from Duke. He got nine touches and served as a thumping complement to the lighter, quicker Hillman. It would probably take an injury to get Thompson a fantasy-relevant role, but it's interesting to note where he falls on the depth chart.

Josh Hill, TE, New Orleans Saints(0.2 percent): Jimmy Graham is set to miss at least one game and possibly more with an injured shoulder. The Saints like Hill, though they've yet to officially hand him over the No. 2 TE role; Ben Watson (0.1 percent) is a more trustworthy blocker. Without Graham, though, the Saints could turn to Hill, who is more athletic than Watson at this point in their careers. You probably can't start Hill until we see how this works out, but I don't hate adding him in very deep leagues.
Brandon LaFell, WR, Patriots (2.9 percent): Just when you think you can trust LaFell, believe me, you can't. Yes, he scored twice Sunday and has at least 97 yards receiving in two of his past three games. But LaFell is a top teaser: good size, adequate speed, terrific leaping ability, but his hands are stone and he makes mental errors galore. You can feel free to chase his bygone stats. I'm likelier to keep an eye on Brian Tyms (0.0 percent), who made his regular-season debut Sunday and caught a long TD thrown into triple coverage. A height/weight/speed freak who spent a couple of years on the Dolphins' and Browns' practice squads, Tyms impressed the Pats this summer, and has become a name to know in dynasty leagues.
Chris Polk, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (0.6 percent): Darren Sproles suffered a small tear in a knee ligament Sunday night and is expected to miss time. The Eagles are off in Week 7 and Polk has battled a hamstring problem for weeks, but there's a chance he's LeSean McCoy's backup against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 8. We've seen that role lead to unexpected fantasy points.
Jarvis Landry, WR, Miami Dolphins (0.4 percent): Odell Beckham's college teammate, Landry flew lower profile throughout the draft process but is a decent prospect himself, and busted out with six catches for 75 yards and a TD Sunday. Landry had been splitting third-receiver snaps with Brandon Gibson, but Gibson missed Week 6 with a bad hamstring. If he could make his way into two-receiver sets, Landry would offer more upside than Brian Hartline.

Other solid waiver adds for deep-leaguers, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Vikings (11.2 percent); Austin Davis, QB, Rams (4.6 percent); Blake Bortles, QB, Jaguars (3.3 percent); Antone Smith, RB Falcons (5.1 percent); Benjamin Cunningham, RB, Rams (1.8 percent); Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, Ravens (20.3 percent); Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars (1.3 percent); Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers (4.2 percent); Louis Murphy, WR, Buccaneers (0.3 percent); Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles (8.7 percent); Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars (11.9 percent); Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns (11.3 percent); Dwayne Allen, TE, Colts (15.9 percent); Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Buccaneers (0.5 percent); Tim Wright, TE, Patriots (3.6 percent); Jace Amaro, TE, Jets (1.3 percent).
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]32 fantasy tips to win in Week 7[/h][h=3]Which Giants to target after Victor Cruz injury; what to do with Percy Harvin[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Mike Clay[/FONT] | Pro Football Focus

Welcome back to Fantasy 32, where I'll provide 32 notes covering each of the league's 32 teams.
Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions and come up with a win in Week 7. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version.
1. Following Victor Cruz's devastating patellar tendon injury, Rueben Randle takes over as theNew York Giants' No. 1 wide receiver. But a case could be made that he already was. Randle has seen a massive 31 percent of the Giants' targets over the past four weeks, and most of that came with Cruz in the lineup. With Randle and rookie Odell Beckham Jr. out wide, Preston Parker will fill in for Cruz in the slot in three-wide sets, an offensive package this team uses a lot. Parker was on the field for all 24 offensive snaps after Cruz went down Sunday. Randle will see enough volume in a quality offense to produce strong WR2 numbers going forward. Beckham is a borderline WR3, and Parker is worth bench consideration. Deep leaguers should keep preseason standout Corey Washington on their radar.
2. With Rashad Jennings sidelined, Andre Williams made his first NFL start Sunday night.<offer></offer>Williams' struggles as a pass-blocker and receiver are no secret, and the team's distrust in him on passing downs was apparent. Williams carried the ball 16 times but was on the field for only 12 pass plays. Veteran Peyton Hillis was in on 24 pass plays and actually took one more snap than Williams. Jennings figures to miss one more game, but New York heads to Dallas this week. Williams will struggle to dominate the snaps with New York likely to be throwing the ball in the second half. He's a touchdown-dependent, back-end RB2.
3. I've touched on this in past editions of Fantasy 32, but Percy Harvin's fantasy value remains heavily dependent on target volume. Thus far, it hasn't been there. Harvin has seen 20 percent of Seattle's targets, which has allowed him just 22 catches for 133 yards and zero scores. Harvin's rushing production (11 carries, 92 yards and one touchdown) has kept him on the fantasy radar, but he's putting up WR4 numbers (at best) after many expected WR2 production.
4. The red-hot Indianapolis Colts offense is racking up touchdowns, but it has also been on the field a lot. The Colts have run 80 or more offensive plays in three consecutive games. They are averaging 76.5 per game this season, which is an absurd 6.1 ahead of the second-place New Orleans Saints. It's fair to expect this number to drop -- the league average this season is 64.4 -- but the Colts' offensive efficiency will keep their skill players busy.


5. The Houston Texans offense "exploded" for three touchdowns against the Colts on Thursday, but keep in mind that this marks only the second time this season that it exceeded two scores in a game. The Texans are run-heavy (52 percent pass plays is the league's third-lowest mark), don't run many plays (58.8 offensive plays per game is fifth-lowest) and don't score often (2.0 offensive touchdowns per game is 11th-lowest). Arian Foster and Andre Johnson see enough volume to warrant a spot in starting lineups, but DeAndre Hopkins -- the team's only other fantasy contributor -- needs more work to stay in the WR3 mix.
6. At least from a fantasy perspective, Bishop Sankey's first NFL start didn't go particularly well. With Shonn Greene out, the rookie managed 68 yards on 19 touches and failed to score. He handled all but five of the Tennessee Titans' 23 designed runs but was on the field for just 10 additional plays. The Titans appear committed to a committee attack, which allowed a combined 34 snaps for Dexter McCluster, Leon Washington and Jackie Battle. Sankey remains a strong hold but is nothing more than a flex option until his role expands.
7. In the same game Sankey made his first NFL start, fellow rookie Storm Johnson made his first appearance as the Jacksonville Jaguars' RB1. The 2014 seventh-round pick racked up a team-high 10 carries in the game but, like Sankey, was rarely used on passing downs, managing only 18 total snaps. Both Jordan Todman (33 snaps) and Denard Robinson (30) were on the field more often. Johnson bailed out his owners with a touchdown, but 17 yards on 11 touches just isn't going to cut it. The Jaguars are struggling to score points and often have to abandon their running game in the second half. Johnson should be on benches, not in starting lineups.
8. Stevan Ridley suffered a season-ending injury Sunday, which leaves Bill Belichick with Shane Vereen, Brandon Bolden, James White and Jonas Gray (who's on the practice squad) at the position. Following Ridley's injury, Vereen and Bolden each handled 14 snaps, but note that White (inactive) and Gray (practice squad) were unavailable. The Patriots have called pass 41 percent of the time when Ridley is on the field this season, which is the lowest rate in the league among tailbacks who have played at least 100 snaps. That's compared to 73 percent with Vereen, 54 percent with Bolden and (albeit on only 14 snaps) 79 percent with White. The best bet here is a full-on committee attack. Vereen can handle upward of half the carries and will remain busy on passing downs. That's enough to put him on the RB1 radar, especially in PPR. Bolden, White and Gray (assuming he's activated) should be on benches, but don't start them until we learn more.
9. Mike Williams' future with the Buffalo Bills is in serious doubt, which means second-year speedster Marquise Goodwin is worth some discussion. He was selected just one round afterRobert Woods in the 2013 NFL draft. Goodwin flashed his big-play ability as a rookie, catching 17 balls for 283 yards and three scores. Behind Woods, Sammy Watkins and "7-11" Chris Hogan, Goodwin remains well down the Buffalo depth chart, but he has a very high ceiling. Stash him in deep leagues.
10. As one of the few Brice Butler apologists on the planet, it would behoove me to discuss his future prospects following a career high in targets (five), receiving yards (64) and touchdowns (one) last week. A preseason standout each of his first two seasons, Butler already has a few highlight-reel grabs to his name. At 6-foot-3, 210 pounds and working in an offense in need of playmakers, Butler should be on deep league radars. Just keep in mind that Denarius Moore,Kenbrell Thompkins and Vincent Brown are on his heels for snaps and Rod Streater will be back later this season.


11. Weekly readers of the Fantasy 32 won't be surprised, but Jerick McKinnonfinally emerged as Minnesota's lead back over the weekend. McKinnon was on the field for a career-high 44 of the team's 63 offensive snaps. He carried the ball 11 times and was targeted on six occasions. Meanwhile, Matt Asiataworked only 14 snaps in the game. Asiata doesn't figure to disappear, but he's the inferior talent here. McKinnon had his hands full with a tough Detroit Lions defense Sunday and will again in Week 7 with Buffalo on tap. Stay the course, as the schedule is much easier from Week 8 on. McKinnon is a back-end RB2.
12. Torrey Smith scored twice Sunday, but keep in mind that he did it on just 18 percent of the team's targets while picking on a short-handed Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary. Still well behind Steve Smith on the target totem pole, Torrey Smith's production is going to be inconsistent, not unlike that of the Baltimore Ravens offense at large. Smith should be owned in all formats but should be used as a WR3 only when the matchup is promising.
13. For the first time this season, the Jaguars went into Sunday's game with all of their wide receivers available. Personnel usage was about as expected. There always seems to be speculation that Cecil Shorts III's offensive role will decrease, but it never happens. Shorts easily paced the unit with 15 targets. Allen Robinson started and paced the team's wideouts in snaps. Allen Hurns (47 snaps) worked ahead of fellow rookie Marqise Lee (15) in the slot. Shorts should be owned in all formats, as he's clearly in the WR3 conversation. Robinson and Hurns should be on benches but aren't top-36 options.
I've written at length about opportunity-adjusted touchdowns in the past. If you're new to the stat, be sure to check out our introduction to rushing and receiving OTD. The OTD metric weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity.
14. Ahmad Bradshaw has been one of fantasy's top value picks this season, but is his production sustainable? Probably not. All five of Bradshaw's touchdowns are of the receiving variety. Consider this: The last running back to finish a season with five or more receiving touchdowns but no rushing scores was rarely used Kansas City Chiefs back Bill Jones in 1990. Bradshaw has yet to see a single end zone target but has four scores on six targets within six yards of the end zone. OTD suggests he should have nearly half that number of scores. The obvious argument is that Bradshaw will make up for lost receiving scores by running the ball in. The problem is that Trent Richardson is the team's goal-line back. Of Bradshaw's 60 carries this season, three have come inside the 10-yard line. He has yet to carry the ball within three yards of the end zone. Bradshaw remains a RB2 option because of the Colts' elite offense, but he's not going to sustain top-10 production.
15. Knowshon Moreno appeared in only two games this season, but he sits 13th in rushing OTD. That's not a typo. Of Moreno's 31 carries, two were from the opponent's 1-yard line and five more came inside the 10-yard line. Now that he is done for the season, these are opportunities that will be available to Lamar Miller. Already eighth in rushing OTD and busy as a receiver, Miller has the looks of a strong RB2 going forward.
16. Ben Tate and Branden Oliver stepped into significant offensive roles in Week 5, and both carried over into Week 6. Scoring chances have been aplenty on both counts. Powered by three carries within two yards of the end zone, Tate leads all backs in rushing OTD during the two-week span. Oliver sits fifth. He handled all three of the San Diego Chargers' carries within eight yards of the opponent's end zone. Tate is locked in as an RB2, but Oliver's ceiling will take a hit when Ryan Mathews returns in the next week or two.
17. Tailbacks score 54 percent of the time from the opposing 1-yard line, which is a significantly higher rate than any other distance. Here are your leaders in runs from that distance this season:
• 5: Rashad Jennings
• 3: Ridley, Trent Richardson, Alfred Morris
• 2: Moreno, Tate, Gerhart, Giovani Bernard, Lorenzo Taliaferro, Joe Flacco, Arian Foster


18. With nine scores in five games, Julius Thomasis on pace for 29 receiving touchdowns this season. That's obviously not a sustainable rate, especially when you consider that he has caught only 24 balls. Thomas has seen just seven end zone targets but has caught six. He caught four of 10 end zone targets last season. Peyton Manningwill continue to feed his 6-5 tight end at the goal line, but expect some of Thomas' scores to go to the likes of Demaryius Thomas (also has seven end zone targets this season), Wes Welker (10 touchdowns last season), Emmanuel Sanders(eighth in the NFL in receptions among WRs) and the team's running backs (two total scores this year after totaling 18 in 2013).
19. With good reason, Markus Wheaton was a popular late-round flier this season. He has yet to convert his opportunity as Pittsburgh's No. 2 wideout into much fantasy success, but he's closer than it may appear. Wheaton was targeted while in the end zone twice Sunday and handled two other looks while within eight yards. Seeing just under 20 percent of the Steelers' targets, Wheaton is a WR4 with WR2 upside. Buy low while you can.
20. Jace Amaro busted out Sunday, catching 10 of his 12 targets for 68 yards and a score.Geno Smith looked to his rookie tight end on just over one-third of his passes, which is a massive number. Don't go rushing to the waiver wire just yet, though. Amaro racked up a career-high 34 snaps but was on the field for only 29 of the team's 48 pass plays. Sunday marked the first time Amaro exceeded five targets in a game, and he also saw the first end zone target of his career. Amaro has the look of a strong TE2 option, but production will be inconsistent until his role expands.
21. End zone targets are the easiest path to touchdowns. In 2014, the leaders in the category are:
• 12: Jordy Nelson
• 10: Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates
• 9: Smith, Randall Cobb, Antonio Brown
• 8: Brandon Marshall
• 7: Randle, D. Thomas, J. Thomas, Larry Donnell, Kelvin Benjamin, Jeremy Maclin

We can learn a lot about a team's offensive scheme by examining its pass/run ratio. By adjusting it to account for the score and time remaining in the game (or "game flow"), we have even more useful information at our disposal.
22. No team has exceeded the Jaguars' 67 percent expected pass rate this season. Jacksonville has called pass on a league-high 70 percent of its offensive snaps, but a lot of that has to do with game flow. Blown out in four of their six games and without a win this season, the Jaguars figure to operate in the proverbial garbage time quite often going forward. This is something to consider when looking for bye week replacements at quarterback (Blake Bortles) and wide receiver (Shorts, Robinson and Hurns).
23. No team has a lower expected pass rate than the Colts (54 percent). This makes the fact that they are the league's ninth pass-heaviest team even more indicative of their Andrew Luck-centric offensive philosophy. Luck is fantasy's top quarterback through six weeks, and this suggests he is well on his way to finishing in the top spot. T.Y. Hilton is, at worst, a strong weekly WR2. Bradshaw, Richardson, Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen are all worth starting lineup consideration every week.
24. Larry Fitzgerald had a breakout game of sorts Sunday, reeling in all six of his targets for 98 yards and his first score of the year. Despite the big day, Fitzgerald still sits third on his team in fantasy points among wideouts. In fact, Fitzgerald and rookie John Brown, who has three touchdowns to his name, are even in targets over the team's past three games. Fitzgerald's 10.2-yard average depth of target is actually lower than it was in 2013, when the veteran managed only 954 yards despite catching 82 balls. Following the big game, it's a good time to sell.


25. After an injury-plagued 2013, Roddy White has already missed one game this season and turns 33 later this year. With 19 catches, 253 yards and two scores on 37 targets, White is performing at a WR3 level when many expected strong WR2 numbers. Of course, despite back-to-back rough outings, the Atlanta Falconssit fifth in the league in offensive touchdowns. Additionally, Atlanta is the third pass-heaviest team in the league. I mention these two statistics because they offer some hope for White going forward. Still seeing seven-plus targets per game, White should be on your buy-low radar.
26. I've touched on this in the past, but teams continue to attack the tight end when the Dallas Cowboys are on the schedule. Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker, Jared Cook and Jimmy Grahamwere heavily targeted during the first four weeks of the season. Last week, the Seattle Seahawks, who rarely involve the tight end in their offense, targeted Luke Willson 23 percent of the time. On the year, offenses have targeted the tight end a league-high 32 percent of the time against the Cowboys. Next up on the schedule: the Giants' Larry Donnell, Washington Redskins' Jordan Reed and Week 9 deep sleeper John Carlson of the Arizona Cardinals.
27. The Lions continue to struggle on offense, which has really held Golden Tate back from massive production. Despite putting up only 44 yards on seven receptions Sunday, Tate was the target on 39 percent of Matthew Stafford's throws. Tate has seen at least 30 percent of the team's targets each of the past three games. Don't sleep on Tate after the "down" week. Assuming Calvin Johnson remains out, Tate is in for a pair of big games against New Orleans and Atlanta the next two weeks.
28. No offense has used two-plus tight end sets more than Kansas City (47 percent) this season. Veteran Anthony Fasano is a near-every-down player and averaging a respectable 14 percent of the team's targets. Travis Kelce is playing closer to half the snaps but has seen just under 20 percent of the targets. Alex Smith has targeted his tight ends 34 percent of the time, which, as you probably guessed, is highest in the league. Kelce's status as a back-end TE1 is safe.
29. The Saints have struggled to a 2-3 record this season, but don't downgrade their fantasy-relevant players as a result. The New Orleans offense is averaging 3.2 touchdowns per game, which is actually higher than its 2013 mark (2.9). Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham (when healthy) remain elite options at their respective positions. Brandin Cooks and Marques Colstonare every-week starters at wide receiver. The backfield snap distribution is the only question mark, but Mark Ingram figures to return his week. Assuming he assumes his pre-injury role, Ingram will produce borderline RB2 numbers.
30. Tre Mason made his NFL debut Monday night, racking up a team-high 40 yards on five carries. The 2014 third-round pick's first pro touch was a 12-yard catch-and-run. Considering the St. Louis Rams' wide-open running back situation, Mason is worth grabbing off waivers this week. Just keep in mind that he played only nine snaps. Benjamin Cunningham (36) and Zac Stacy (24) were the two lead backs, and Tavon Austin handled three carries as well.
31. During the past two weeks, we've seen more of a committee approach from the San Francisco 49ers at the running back position. After outsnapping Carlos Hyde 168 to 70 during the first four weeks of the season, Frank Gore's edge was 16 the past two games. Hyde now has 10-plus carries in three consecutive games. Although he has struggled to 3.2 yards per carry this season, it's clear the rookie's offensive role is on the rise. Gore is still the lead back and remains on the RB2 radar, but Hyde should be owned in all formats.
32. Desperate for running back help in PPR? Look no further than Roy Helu. Washington has called pass 86 percent of the time when Helu is on the field this season, which is the highest rate among backs with at least 120 snaps played. The veteran has managed just 20 carries but has caught all 17 of his targets for 258 yards. Helu sits 26th among backs in fantasy points in PPR leagues.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Fantasy value of Brady, Newton[/h][h=3]Taking stock of up-and-down star QBs, Doug Martin and a pair of rising WRs[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Matthew Berry[/FONT] and [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Mark Dominik[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
in.gif


Every week during the NFL season, Matthew Berry will be engaging in a discussion with an NFL expert on topics that will provide valuable insights for fantasy owners. For this pre-Week 7 edition, Berry and ESPN Front Office Insider and former Tampa Bay Buccaneers general manager Mark Dominik look at star QBs who have been up and down, Bucs running back Doug Martin and a pair of young receivers who could soon break out.
[h=3]What should fantasy owners make of Tom Brady and Cam Newton?[/h]Matthew Berry: Mark, first of all, thanks for joining me this week. I'm excited to put into print what you and I discuss a lot in the ESPN cafeteria here in Bristol. It feels as if we always wind up talking fantasy football, and it should be fun to run through these questions for real.
Mark Dominik: So am I -- I'm always wondering which guys you're recommending to start each week, so I'm looking forward to hearing what you're thinking.
Berry: I want to start by picking your brain on a couple of up-and-down quarterbacks. First of all, Cam Newton, a guy your team played against twice a year when you were the general manager of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He had really struggled to start the season before having that breakout game in the Panthers' tie against the Bengals on Sunday. How much of that performance is "just one game" to you, or do you view it more as "Cam's finally back"? How much confidence do you have in Newton?


Dominik: It's too soon to tell, for this year at least. He's still trying to put everything together. You don't know week-to-week what you're going to get from him in that he can start out really hot, or he'll struggle early and then you'll see him beating himself up and getting too frustrated with himself on the sideline. That can make him a really difficult guy to prepare for, but it also limits his overall performance and consistency. That's been his M.O., even as he's gotten a lot better his second and third seasons. He still has some work to do in terms of his discipline within the system. But I still have confidence that he'll be a good quarterback.
Berry: I think that from a fantasy perspective, if you're a Newton owner and have held onto him this long, you're thrilled. But I don't want to have to pay top-six QB prices to get him now if I don't have him. If you can still get him at a below top-10 price, that's great. But I'm with you in wanting to see him and the Panthers' offensive line do a little more before I can count on him to be really productive every week.
The second QB I wanted to ask you about is Tom Brady. He was brutal for four games, and then the past two games he's gone back to being Tom Brady. There has been some discussion about how Rob Gronkowski's being 100 percent healthy again has turned them back into the Patriots we're used to seeing, but can it really be that simple? To what do you attribute Brady's recent surge in success? And is it sustainable?
Dominik: There are a couple of things that have come into play, I think. First of all, the Gronk factor is definitely significant. His effectiveness in the red zone makes you worry any time you have to play against him. He is one of the highest-scoring tight ends to play in the NFL in a long time.
But there's probably more to it than that. I have a feeling that after the blowout loss to the Chiefs, Brady brought some of the core guys on that team together and said, "OK, we're going to have to work harder." And I think he probably challenged some of the younger players, maybe went to a guy like Tim Wright and pushed him to be a bigger factor in the offense; maybe Gronk started getting to the building a little earlier every day.
I'm willing to bet he went to his guys and said, "Hey, we can't just show up and be Tom Brady and the New England Patriots and expect to win," and got back to business. That's just my gut instinct knowing Brady the little bit I do know him. And it seems as if the offensive line started to overcome the loss of Logan Mankins, which is something that can sit on a unit from a psychological standpoint. But I think as an offense as a whole they've transitioned on, and you're seeing that now.
Berry: I'm not ready to put Brady into my top 10 quarterbacks for the rest of the season yet, but I do think he'll have success versus the Jets on Thursday night and he's in my top 10 for this week. And for the rest of the year, he's closer to a QB1 than he is to a QB2.
Dominik: With the way that Jets secondary has been struggling, he is definitely a really interesting fantasy play this week.

Berry: Mark, I want to switch gears and ask you about Bucs running back Doug Martin, who obviously is a player you drafted while the GM at Tampa Bay. This might be a tough spot for me to be putting you in, but I'm curious now that you're removed from that situation what you think of his struggles this season. Do you think he's still a legit No. 1 running back in the NFL, and do you think he'll still be the lead back ahead of Bobby Rainey coming out of the team's bye?


Dominik: The thing I always remember about Martin is how he almost put up 2,000 yards from scrimmage during his rookie season in 2012. He was a really good player for us. Now let's be candid -- he has not played well this season. Not all of that is on him, because the Bucs have gotten down so quickly in games that it's hard to establish the running game. But even early in games, I haven't seen the line opening up the holes for him and I haven't seen Martin showing the elusiveness or explosiveness to break off big runs on his own.
I'm still a believer that he can be a No. 1 back, and he's their starter over Rainey, I think. But the guy who could start to cut into his carries some is rookie Charles Sims, once he gets healthy.
Berry: Sims was a player I loved coming out of West Virginia this year. Matt Forte was an NFL comparison I heard a lot for him -- a true three-down back who could be productive as a runner and in the passing game. If you're in a deeper league, or definitely in a dynasty league, he's a guy to grab now. I've got him in my dynasty league, not just for the opportunity he could have in the second half of this season, but because of his future the next couple of years.
But I think if you own Martin, if you haven't already made alternate plans, you need to. He's a flex play going forward, but he's not going to be the RB1 many players drafted him to be this year. It's not all on him, but in fantasy football we care about production, and his hasn't been there.
I want to switch gears a second, and tap into your experience as an NFL GM. There are always players who flash talent who fans -- and sometimes fantasy owners -- want to see play more, and it seems as if the coaching staff just doesn't want to expand their roles. A guy such as Falcons RB Antone Smith comes to mind for me, as he has been scoring a lot of touchdowns on very few touches. Would you ever talk to your coaches about getting more playing time for certain players?
Dominik: I always felt as though the 46-man roster was really important for the coach -- that he had the players at his disposal he needed to win that week. But we could have discussions throughout the week, and there were times when I would encourage certain guys to get some snaps, in particular younger guys we were hoping to get a look at.
You could maybe see how that would happen for a guy like Smith whose contract is up after the season, and I feel as if that could be the case for Justin Hunter in Tennessee, a guy who has a ton of talent but has been inconsistent. As an organization you need to see if he can be a reliable player for you, and the only real way to do that is to get him snaps.
Berry: That's interesting. Hunter is a guy I'm not willing to bail on just yet from a fantasy perspective, even though he's had some games where he's been shut out or close to it so far this season. He has started to come on the past couple of games, which is great, because he hasn't had any consistency at the quarterback position.
Another WR situation that's interesting to me is the Giants. Obviously, losing Victor Cruz to the knee injury is really disappointing, but I like what I've seen from Rueben Randle and the sky seems to be the limit for rookie Odell Beckham Jr. What do you think of those guys?
Dominik: I agree with you -- I would run to get Beckham right now. He's an explosive slot receiver, but he's talented enough to be a force on the outside as well. With Cruz going down, there is going to be a lot of opportunity for him in that offense, and he's shown so far all of the traits we saw in him coming out of LSU: strong hands, speed, separation skills. He's really going to help the Giants.
Berry: Beckham should be one of the top pickups this week, if not the top pickup.
Do you play fantasy football, Mark? Or are you like, "I did it in real life. I don't need to play the fantasy version"?
Dominik: I used to tell people I played "reality football" instead of fantasy football. I don't have a fantasy team right now, but in truth I actually played back in the early 1990s when I was in college, making picks out of USA Today. I had Jim Kelly as my quarterback and Andre Reed at WR, so I had a pretty good team.
I think if I got further away from the game, I'd get into it. It's always fun to watch individual players and track their development, the same as a fantasy owner as it was for me as an evaluator. Maybe I can try to break into that exclusive ESPN league of yours.
Berry: We'd love to have you. One last question for you, though: When you were GM of the Bucs, how often did people try to hit you up for fantasy advice, disguised as other conversation? "Hey, curious about how healthy Doug Martin is this week, is he going to help you win?"
Dominik: Oh, all the time. Either at the grocery store with complete strangers or in a text from a buddy. You get hit up a lot. I'd sit there knowing they were just asking me to help with their fantasy lineups.
Berry: So my grilling you about all these fantasy questions is nothing new?

Dominik: Exactly. I'm used to it.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Backfield breakdown entering Week 7
in.gif
[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Eric Karabell[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

Not that there was a Curtis Martin or Thurman Thomas lurking in the AFC East entering the season, but now that [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Knowshon Moreno[/FONT] of the [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Miami Dolphins[/FONT] and [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Stevan Ridley[/FONT] of the [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]New England Patriots[/FONT] have seen their seasons end because of serious knee injuries, it opens up opportunity for others to step up. In Miami, [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Lamar Miller[/FONT] has been doing this. He ranks the best for this division in my [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]rest-of-season rankings[/FONT] entering Week 7, edging out 33-year-old [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Fred Jackson[/FONT] of the [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Buffalo Bills[/FONT], but don't downplay the upside. These guys enter Week 7 tied with[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Frank Gore[/FONT] of the [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]San Francisco 49ers[/FONT] for 14th place among running backs in [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]ESPN standard scoring[/FONT], and in theory things should only improve for Miller with Moreno out of the picture.

Miller ending up a top-10 running back is hardly ridiculous now that he's all alone with little competition on the team's[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]running back depth chart[/FONT]. The Dolphins know what backup [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Daniel Thomas[/FONT] is capable of, and it isn't much. He didn't even make the team entering the season. Miller has provided double digits in fantasy points in four of five games -- has your top running back? -- and he's on pace for more than 1,000 rushing yards, close to 50 receptions and he could reach double-digit touchdowns. There's not a thing wrong with this, especially when it's tough to find 20 reasonable fantasy running backs. While some might overrate Miller's opportunity now, I think he'll just continue to do what he's doing. That's enough.It's certainly tougher to gauge the situation with Bill Belichick's Patriots, as Ridley wasn't really sharing main ball-carrier duties with Shane Vereen, a smaller back who hasn't been asked to carry a workload. Speculation centers on third-year player Brandon Bolden, and he moves into the "handcuff" slot behind Vereen on our chart, but in deeper leagues it's wise to see if you can make room for rookie James White, too. Sure, rookies are anything but reliable, but White had an impressive career at Wisconsin, where he averaged 6.2 yards per carry, scored 48 touchdowns and caught passes as a senior, the latter skill and his size likely setting him up as Vereen insurance. Watch Bolden get more chances. The Pats play Thursday against the beleaguered New York Jets, which ordinarily isn't a good matchup for opposing running backs, but Vereen looks like a top-20 option until we see how Belichick reacts, with Bolden a deep-league choice.
As for the other two AFC East squads, neither of which ran the ball effectively Sunday in dispiriting losses, it would be a surprise if Bryce Brown doesn't get a chance at some point for the Bills. They traded a draft pick for him but have yet to give him a chance to play, for whatever reason, but watching C.J. Spiller struggle to gain 27 yards on 16 carries the past two games, and with Jackson productive but limited in workload, one would think the potentially explosive Brown is active this week. As for the Jets, still close to a top-10 run offense for the season but not showing it of late, we warned you about former Tennessee Titans star Chris Johnson being more name than game all summer long, but fantasy owners didn't seem to listen. Chris Ivory remains first on the depth chart, but it's tough to activate any Jet in a fantasy lineup. Unlike the Bills, with Brown looming, what you see with the Jets is what they have.
Other running back situations: Watching St. Louis Rams rookie Tre Mason turn his first five rushing opportunities of the season into 40 yards in the Monday night loss to the San Francisco 49ers, one has to wonder whether the team gives him a real shot to usurp the job from Zac Stacy. A year ago, Stacy was productive when he got the chance in October. Perhaps that happens to Mason, so consider adding him in deep leagues. … Fellow rookie Bishop Sankeydidn't take major advantage of his opportunity Sunday with Shonn Greene inactive, and who knows what happens when each is healthy. If choosing one in fantasy, however, take Sankey's upside and pass-catching ability over Greene's plodding tendencies. … And there are more struggling rookies! Storm Johnson scored a touchdown for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but otherwise showed little. Toby Gerhart remains atop the depth chart, but that doesn't mean you should start him or, frankly, even own him in shallow formats. … Reggie Bush or Joique Bell? Rip Bush all you want, but nobody complained about him a year ago, and he's had a week to heal his ankle injury. And Bush still leads the depth chart. … Nice outing by Ronnie Hillman for the Denver Broncos, but with Montee Ball out there was little question whom the team would turn to. For now it appears rookie Juwan Thompson is the only other back that matters, rendering C.J. Anderson free-agent fodder. … The first 100-yard rushing game of the season for the Carolina Panthers comes thanks to quarterback Cam Newton. Don't bother owning a Panthers running back. No, really. Newton rushed for 107 yards Sunday. No Panthers running back has that many rushing yards for the season. … And finally there are the Vikings, whereMatt Asiata took a clear backseat to rookie Jerick McKinnon Sunday against a tough Lions run defense. But have we not learned a thing from coaches this season? It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Asiata gets more touches this week. Be prepared.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Fantasy running back depth chart[/h][h=3]Your guide to each NFL team's most valuable fantasy running backs.[/h]
By Fantasy Staff | ESPN.com

[h=4]Fantasy football running back depth chart (last updated Oct. 14)[/h]The chart below breaks down all 32 NFL backfields in terms of running back fantasy value. Teams are listed in alphabetical order.
"Starter" is that team's most valuable running back in terms of fantasy value. "Handcuff" is the running back whose value would most increase should something happen to the starter. "Stealth"is the running back most likely to work his way into starter or handcuff situation, or is currently injured but otherwise would be the starter or primary handcuff.
TEAMSTARTERHANDCUFFSTEALTH
i
Andre EllingtonStepfan TaylorRobert Hughes
i
Steven JacksonAntone SmithDevonta Freeman
i
Justin ForsettBernard PierceLorenzo Taliaferro
i
Fred JacksonC.J. SpillerAnthony Dixon
i
Jonathan StewartFozzy WhittakerDeAngelo Williams
i
Matt ForteKa'Deem CareySenorise Perry
i
Giovani BernardJeremy HillCedric Peerman
i
Ben TateIsaiah CrowellTerrance West
i
DeMarco MurrayLance DunbarJoseph Randle
i
Ronnie HillmanJuwan ThompsonMontee Ball
i
Reggie BushJoique BellTheo Riddick
i
Eddie LacyJames StarksDuJuan Harris
i
Arian FosterAlfred BlueJonathan Grimes
i
Ahmad BradshawTrent RichardsonDaniel Herron
i
Toby GerhartDenard RobinsonStorm Johnson
i
Jamaal CharlesKnile DavisCyrus Gray
i
Lamar MillerDaniel ThomasDamian Williams
i
Matt AsiataJerick McKinnonJoe Banyard
i
Shane VereenBrandon BoldenJames White
i
Khiry RobinsonPierre ThomasMark Ingram
i
Andre WilliamsPeyton HillisRashad Jennings
i
Chris IvoryChris JohnsonBilal Powell
i
Darren McFaddenMaurice Jones-DrewLatavius Murray
i
LeSean McCoyDarren SprolesChris Polk
i
Le'Veon BellLeGarrette BlountDri Archer
i
Branden OliverShaun DraughnRyan Mathews
i
Frank GoreCarlos HydeBruce Miller
i
Marshawn LynchRobert TurbinChristine Michael
i
Zac StacyBenny CunninghamTre Mason
i
Doug MartinBobby RaineyMike James
i
Shonn GreeneBishop SankeyDexter McCluster
i
Alfred MorrisRoy HeluSilas Redd

<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>
Players are listed by their value on a fantasy depth chart, which may not necessarily reflect their position on their NFL team's depth chart.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Love, hate and letting go[/h][h=3]It's not easy to let go of those you once loved, in life or fantasy[/h]
By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

I was 25 years old, living in Los Angeles, and I was single. Once I was hanging out with my friends Kevin and Kim, a longtime couple, and they started lamenting the fact I didn't have a girlfriend because they wanted people to double-date with. "So set me up," I said.

They thought about it for a moment, then Kim turned to Kevin and said, "What about Rachel?"
"Yeah," I said, "what about Rachel?"
Kevin thought about it for a second and said, "Actually, you and Rachel are perfect for each other. That's a good idea."
"Great," I said. "Always happy to meet new people. Let's set up a casual group drinks or something and we'll all go out, see if there's anything there." Kevin said, "Done deal." And Kim was all happy.
Six months later and I still hadn't met this woman.
I found out much later that Kevin's best friend actually had a big crush on Rachel, and while Rachel wasn't interested, this guy didn't want Kevin to set her up with anyone because he was still trying to work it. It's actually a long, semi-insane triangle story that's for another column, but the takeaway is that I never did get set up with her.
Kevin and I played in a weekly pickup basketball game back then, and one week Kevin showed up with Rachel. She played high school basketball, so Kevin had brought her along. She held her own in the game and, more important, we finally met. Later that night, Kevin called me. "So, I just got off the phone with Rachel, who asked me all sorts of questions about you."
"Oh yeah?"
"Yeah. And at the end she said, 'Well, if he calls you and asks for my number, give it to him,'" he said. "So, you want her number?"
I did and I called her. We went out the following Saturday, had a great time. Called her Monday, we spoke for two hours on the phone. Went out again Tuesday. Then again Thursday. And once more the following Saturday. Inseparable from that moment on, our different groups of friends merged, parents were met and Kevin and Kim finally had a couple to double-date with. Two years to the day after our first date, we were engaged to be married. Eight months after that, we were married.
And we were still very, very young.


It was around the time we got married that I started writing my first fantasy column. Rachel gets credit for the name Talented Mr. Roto, by the way, and yes, it was inspired by the Matt Damon flick "The Talented Mr. Ripley." As our marriage continued, I started to get more into the fantasy sports industry, going from one column to two a week, then adding radio hits, then adding some magazine stuff, then deciding to start my own websites and everything that comes along with that: Hiring people, promotion, fixing and improving the website, continuing to write my own stuff, meetings, proposals and emails. So many emails.
There was no end to the stuff that needed to be done, so after doing my script writing during the day, I spent my evenings working on my fantasy stuff and there were way, way too many nights that she went to bed alone while I stayed up working. My dual careers continued growing and as that was happening, we were both growing older. And apart.
After a number of years, it was clear there were some real issues in the marriage. We decided to go to couples therapy. It helped a little but it was clear there were fundamental and important differences between us. We didn't fight very much and there was no third person or infidelity or any sort of drama like that. It was just ... we met when she was 23 and I was 25. Now 33 and 35, respectively, we were very different people from the ones who had met. Not better or worse, just different. And with me working so hard trying to start a second career (and her being very supportive of it), we didn't notice we had grown apart until it was too late to fix.
I had been thinking about it for a long time. Do I leave? Do I stay and continue fighting for it? I looked in my heart and realized that while I really cared about this woman, I no longer loved her or was in love with her. And I didn't know how to tell her we should split up. I tend to hate confrontation and as I said, this was not a "War of the Roses" situation. I liked her. A lot. Would never want to hurt her. But I could just imagine the scene. I would tell her I wanted out and she would cry, clinging to my leg, "Don't leave! We'll work it out!"
I knew I had to do it; it wasn't fair to her to be in a marriage with someone who didn't love her, but I never wanted to hurt her and I knew this was going to just crush her. When do you say something like this? When's the right moment to do this? Do you sit the person down and say, "We need to have a serious talk," so at least the other person is prepared a little? But then you have the other person worrying until you have it. Do you just blurt it out? I had no idea.
Eventually, I summoned up the courage, and one Saturday afternoon when we were both home, I sat her down and said we needed to talk. I stumbled through how much I cared about her, but it was clear we had had problems for a while and I was thinking, well, you know, maybe, we should separate?
I braced for the reaction. She looked at me and ... smiled wide. "Oh my God. You too? Thank God. I thought I was the only one! Oh what a relief."
It was actually sort of hilarious. We had this great, cathartic moment where, now that it was on the table, we could talk about it freely and we were in complete agreement. We went back and forth, comparing notes, finishing each other's sentences, connecting like we had when we first dated, except the subject was how we had become totally wrong for each other.
We called her parents, my parents and then went to dinner with our closest couple friends to tell them and have a few drinks together. Friends say it's the most amicable divorce they've ever seen. We didn't even hire lawyers, figuring out a settlement between us in one easy lunch. She remains a friend to this day, and someone I will never say anything bad about. She has since happily remarried to a great guy and continues to be very successful in her job (among many other great attributes, she's whip smart). And no doubt, without her support and encouragement, there's no way I'm here at ESPN today. She played a big role in allowing me to try to pursue this full time, so I'll always be indebted to her.
But ultimately, we weren't meant to be. We had good intentions, entered with open hearts and hope, but things changed and in the end, it didn't work out. Sound familiar, Toby Gerhartowners?
I don't mean to make light of the end of my first marriage; it's certainly not something I'm proud of and I'm of the belief that there's too much divorce in the world as is, so I hate that I contributed to that statistic. But it is what it is and while the stakes are much higher, the emotions are the same. Just because breaking up isn't easy to do doesn't mean it shouldn't be done. Or that you ultimately won't be better off in the end.
We're in Week 7 and looking at the ownership percentages of players in ESPN.com leagues, there's a lot of divorcing that needs to go on. (And while you can't account for everyone on every team, the ownership percentages are taken from a select group of active leagues, so this isn't a case of neglectful owners).
In standard 10-team re-draft leagues, here's whom I have no issue with someone separating from if they need the roster space (all owned in 60 percent of leagues or more): Montee Ball,Chris Johnson, Gerhart, Darren McFadden, Maurice Jones-Drew, Shonn Greene, Adrian Peterson, DeAngelo Williams, LeGarrette Blount, Terrance West, Matt Asiata, C.J. Spiller,Donald Brown, Bernard Pierce, Kendall Wright, Greg Jennings, Riley Cooper, Dwayne Bowe,Hakeem Nicks, Wes Welker in non-PPR leagues, Mike Evans and sadly, yes, I'm still hanging tough with Cordarrelle Patterson, but I get it if you want to bail.
Time to give up on Zac Stacy or Steven Jackson being bell-cow running backs, on any Jacksonville running back having any value, on getting consistent standard-league value out of Cleveland's wide receivers, of ever feeling really good about starting Marques Colston, of Washington's playoff hopes (sigh), of Percy Harvin ever getting targeted consistently downfield, of Ryan Mathews getting his job back full time, of Larry Fitzgerald being more than just a borderline WR3, of getting consistency out of any San Francisco wideout, of Frank Gore having the job to himself and of Doug Martin ever returning anything close to what you paid for him on draft day.
They say breaking up is hard to do and they are right. But no matter how much you invested, no matter how much you wish it wasn't so, no matter how you want to try to turn things around, sometimes you have to just look at yourself in the mirror and be honest about what's working and what isn't. And instead of beating yourself up about what went wrong, you make a clean break and start fresh. And you'll see, while there will be growing pains, everyone will ultimately be better off for it. Let's get to it.
[h=3]Quarterbacks I love in Week 7[/h]Andrew Luck, Indianapolis: Your leader in fantasy points through Week 6, Luck has scored at least 18 points in every game this season. Over the past two weeks, no defense has allowed more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than the Bengals. I include this super-obvious guy because I think he's worth the price in daily leagues and I ranked him No. 1 overall, highest he has been all season.


Tom Brady, New England: Two weeks on the hate list, six touchdowns, over 550 yards and 50 fantasy points. You're welcome, America. Still think it'll be a little more up and down than the past two weeks suggest, but certainly he's back to being a low-end QB 1. Great matchup with the reeling Jets Thursday night; since 2010, he has averaged 277.4 yards and two touchdowns per game against them, and only my beloved Washington has allowed more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than the Jets have this season.
Carson Palmer, Arizona: You know what soothes an ailing neck? Hot cocoa butter generously applied, the dulcet tones of Mr. Clay Aiken, and facing a Raiders team that allows the second-highest completion percentage on deep balls this year. Trust me. Ask any doctor. Carson loves to throw deep and throw deep he shall.
If you're desperate: I'm not saying he throws five touchdowns again, but considering Joe Flacco leads the NFL in touchdown passes on deep throws, it's easy to be Wacco for Flacco this week as the Falcons come to town, allowing a league-high 27.3 (!) yards per attempt on deep throws. ... Tony Romo now has at least 15 fantasy points in four straight games. ... Alex Smith, off the bye and always a threat to get you a few points with his legs, has thrown all eight of his touchdowns on short passes (10 yards or fewer). No team has allowed more touchdowns on short passes than the Chargers this year. That would be the same Chargers team that just gave up four scores to Derek Carr. ... The jury is still out on Kirk Cousins as a NFL quarterback, but in the Washington offense, against Tennessee, he's a viable fantasy one.
[h=3]Quarterbacks I hate in Week 7[/h]Drew Brees, New Orleans: Can't imagine you have better options here, but he's outside my top 10 for the first time since I can remember. As our player card notes, he's averaging just 15 points a game on the road since the start of 2013, I'm expecting him to be without Jimmy Graham, and the Lions are playing great defense, allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, including holding Aaron Rodgers to just 10 points in Week 3. He's still Drew Brees, so he'll be fine, but just outside my top 10 this week, and I'm not using him in daily leagues or Gridiron Challenge.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta: Another guy who is worse on the road, Ryan has thrown more interceptions (six) than touchdowns (five) away from the Georgia Dome, averaging just 14 fantasy points a game in states other than Georgia. Banged-up offensive line against a Ravens defense playing lights out at home, having allowed Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger and Cam Newton to combine for just two touchdown passes total in three games this season.
Eli Manning, New York Giants: Aside from his crazy game against Washington (sigh), he has averaged just 12 points a game this year. Dallas doesn't have a great defense, but what they do have is an amazing offensive line that controls the line of scrimmage and is third in the NFL in time of possession. Hard to score when you're not on the field. Mama taught me that. Dallas has faced the likes of Colin Kaepernick, Drew Brees and Russell Wilson this season, allowing an average of 13.3 points a game to opposing QBs.
[h=3]Running backs I love in Week 7[/h]Ben Tate, Cleveland: Run, run some more and what the hell, one more run. Welcome to the 2014 Browns playbook, the runniest (it is too a word) team this side of Dallas. Expect Cleveland to ride Tate, averaging over 23 carries a game since coming back from injury, against a Jags team that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.
Justin Forsett, Baltimore: Ho hum ... DeMarco, Le'Veon, Giovani, Marshawn ... Justin?? Yep. Only five running backs in the NFL have at least six fantasy points in every game this season and I just listed them. Probably the most surprising name in the top 10 scorers of fantasy running backs, Forsett leads the league at 6.4 yards per carry, a yard ahead of the next-closest rusher. And you remember how bad the Falcons are at defending the pass in the Flacco paragraph? They're even worse against the run, allowing the most touchdowns and fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.
Fred Jackson, Buffalo: Pick a stat, any stat. Second to Matt Forte in receptions among running backs, top 11 in total yards among running backs, Vikes allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, not C.J. Spiller.
Andre Ellington, Arizona: Getting all the red zone rushes the past two weeks, at least 20 touches the past three, and, you know, Oakland.
Alfred Morris, Washington: Five scores in his past five home games against a team that is tied for the sixth-most rushing touchdowns allowed. ... If not now, when? If not him, who? If not for this gimmick, we could get to the next player that much quicker.
If you're desperate: Always tricky to start a Patriots running back, but on a short week, expect Brandon Bolden to get a decent amount of work against a Jets defense that has allowed 150 rushing yards per game the past two weeks. ... Think Reggie Bush wants to make a point against New Orleans? Me too. With Calvin Johnson out again, expect him to be a big part of the passing game and to get his revenge. ... I'm am not a Jonathan Stewart fan at all, but he should be back this week, he should get the majority of carries and the matchup with Green Bay is good enough that I can hold my nose while saying he's probably flex-worthy.
[h=3]Running backs I hate in Week 7[/h]Steven Jackson, Atlanta: At some point, the Falcons are going to #Freeantonesmith. Trending that way, as Jackson's rushing totals have dropped each of the past three weeks. Bad offensive line, bad away from home and again, Ravens playing great defense, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.
Zac Stacy, St. Louis: Part of a three-headed committee, he has yet to get more than 12 carries a game, and he's facing Seattle's front seven. What's not to hate?


C.J. Spiller, Buffalo: Five points or fewer in three of the past four, he's averaging the lowest yards per carry of his career. Just three red zone rushes to Fred Jackson's 14 this year, he has yet to score a rushing touchdown this year. That will still be true Monday.
Bishop Sankey, Tennessee: Saw a meme on Twitter -- I forget from whom, apologies, it's not mine -- that had the blonde girl from "Mean Girls" with this caption: "Stop trying to make Bishop Sankey happen. It's not going to happen." Love that. And certainly true this week as Sankey has just one carry this year inside an opponent's 10-yard line and faces a Washington team that has a lot wrong with it, but does play decent run defense. They've allowed just one rushing touchdown to opposing running backs this season.
Khiry Robinson, New Orleans: Mark Ingram is back, Saints struggle on the road (Sensing a theme yet?) and Detroit's defense, especially their run defense, is so fetch. Second-fewest rushing yards a game.
Frank Gore, San Francisco: Did you watch that "Monday Night Football" game? You see when the 49ers needed a score from inside the Rams' 5-yard line at the end to put the game away? Or when they needed to convert a fourth-and-1? Did you see that? Because Frank Gore sure did, standing on the sideline. To which I'll add that the Broncos have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards in the league this season.
[h=3]Wide receivers I love in Week 7[/h]DeSean Jackson, Washington: Dude's a deep threat. I mean deep. Averaging 47.8 yards on deep passes, by far the most in the league among qualified players. Guess who has allowed the fourth-most deep receptions this season. Go ahead and guess. I'll wait. Seriously. Take a guess. Did you guess the Titans? Because I lied. I didn't wait, I got bored and immediately started checking Twitter. Anyway, it was the Titans. Top-15 play this week.
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis: Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown ... and T.Y. Hilton. Sorry, just listing the four wide receivers who rank in the top five in both receptions and receiving yards this year. As anyone who owns it can tell you, the Bengals defense is getting destroyed these days. The T.Y. stands for Thank You. Another top-15 play.
Rueben Randle, New York: Only Jordy Nelson has more red zone targets this year than Randle; I like his chances getting into the end zone in the first game post-Victor Cruz.
Mohamed Sanu, Cincinnati: At least 70 yards and a touchdown in three of the past four, this isn't a great matchup, but volume should make up for that as Cincy tries to keep up with Indy.
If you're desperate: Cecil Shorts has played only two full games this season, but he has either a touchdown or 100 yards in both of them and it's a good matchup with Cleveland. ... Since Week 3, Brandon LaFell leads New England wide receivers in yards and touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Jets have allowed seven touchdowns to opposing wideouts, tied for sixth most in the league. ... Over the past three weeks, Andre Holmes ranks in the top five in the league in both receiving yards and touchdowns per game while the Cardinals have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts.

[h=3]Wide receivers I hate in Week 7[/h]
Percy Harvin, Seattle: Not sure who hates him more. The refs, Russell Wilson or his fantasy owners. No consistent usage downfield, it's all underneath stuff, and last week they went totally away from him. Rams have played wide receivers tough this year (except of course last week, when I was facing Anquan Boldin. Thanks, guys). Anyway, I'm putting him on my hate list and as a result, I am sure he will go off. Once again, you're welcome, America.
Keenan Allen, San Diego: On here until proved otherwise, the big difference this year has been his yards after the catch, which have been cut nearly in half from 6.1 to 3.2 this season. Five points or fewer in five of six games this year, he faces a team off a bye, where the Chiefs are tied for the third-fewest receptions allowed to opposing wide receivers.
Michael Crabtree, San Francisco: Crabtree has yet to reach five fantasy points in a game without the help of a touchdown this season. His 9.8 yards per reception are on pace for a career low. The Broncos have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season.
[h=3]Tight ends I love in Week 7[/h]Jordan Reed, Washington: As long as he's healthy, Reed is the guy. Washington targets the tight end quite a bit in this offense (54 targets between Reed, Niles Paul and Logan Paulsen, that's seven more than team leader Pierre Garcon) and will continue to do so against the Titans, who are tied for the fourth-most touchdowns allowed to opposing tight ends this season.
Jordan Cameron, Cleveland: Two reasons to love Cameron this week. Great matchup with Jacksonville, of course, and the fact that I am facing Stephania Bell in the War Room leagues this week, and Cameron is her tight end. Which means he's definitely going off.
Travis Kelce, Kansas City: Leading all tight ends in yards after the catch, they actually get him in space quite a bit with a short passes and let him do his thing. And I suspect he will be able to do his thing (actual NFL term) against a San Diego squad allowing the second most yards after the catch per reception to opposing tight ends.
If you're desperate: Still no A.J. Green, Jermaine Gresham was second on the Bengals in all major receiving categories with eight targets, six receptions and 68 yards, and he faces a Colts team allowing the most yards per reception to opposing tight ends. ... Jared Cook has at least 70 yards in two of the past three and, believe it or not, the Seahawks have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. ... Dwayne Allen keeps finding ways to get into the end zone and I bet he does this weekend as well.
[h=3]Tight ends I hate in Week 7[/h]Martellus Bennett, Chicago: Averaging only 3.5 receptions and 34.5 yards with no touchdowns his past two games as Brandon Marshall gets healthier, he needs to score to be a strong play this week. The Dolphins have allowed the fewest yards per reception to opposing tight ends this year. Given the other options available this week, he's not a top-five play.
Heath Miller, Pittsburgh: Five points or fewer in every game this year but one, he needs to score to have any value this week, and with J.J. Watt & Co. in town, I suspect he'll be staying into to help block more, further limiting his chances to score. How lucky do you feel?
[h=3]Defenses I love in Week 7[/h]New England Patriots: Oh, Geno. It's not all on him, of course, and I thought he looked a lot more composed against Denver last Sunday. That doesn't change the fact that he is still turnover prone. The Jets have allowed an average -- I repeat, a whoa, crazy, crazy average -- of 20.7 points to opposing defenses this season, and never fewer than 14. Which was in Week 1. At home. To the Raiders.
Buffalo Bills: OK, they didn't show up against New England, but before that game they were second in the league in defensive fantasy points. With Teddy Bridgewater looking like an up-and-down rookie, Mike Zimmer yelling about Cordarrelle Patterson and a run game that seems stagnant, this is a team that is, um, in transition, to put it politely. Like the Bills to rebound strongly at home this week.
Cleveland Browns: Every defense has reached double digits against the Jaguars.
If you're desperate: Doing it with an offense that is limiting possessions, the Dallas Cowboyshave turned into a viable streaming defense, and it's not as if Eli hasn't turned the ball over in his life. ... As much I was just bagging on the Minnesota Vikings offense up there, it's not as ifKyle Orton is lighting things up. I could see the Vikings do well on the defensive side this week.
[h=3]Defenses I hate in Week 7[/h]Cincinnati Bengals: What the hell? That's minus-12 fantasy points the past two weeks. As in, you'd have been 12 points better off by having an open roster spot. They'll get it together at some point (I think) but doubtful it happens on the road against Andrew Luck, as the Colts give up just 1.3 fantasy points to opposing defenses at home this year.
Carolina Panthers: Negative fantasy points three times in the past four, you're not risking them on the road against Green Bay.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Free-agent finds for Week 8[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Christopher Harris[/FONT] | ESPN.com

Standard ESPN league finds
Tre Mason, RB, St. Louis Rams (owned in 2.3 percent of ESPN leagues): The Rams' backfield carousel goes 'round and 'round. They appeared to begin Sunday's game splitting halfback time among Mason, Benny Cunningham and Tavon Austin, but Mason got hot and wound up with 18 touches compared to 15 for the other two guys combined. I view Mason as a legitimate NFL-level talent with a bright future -- enough size, speed and quickness to be a three-down back -- but he isn't yet trustworthy in pass protection; on Sunday Mason came off the field in all throwing situations. That could change in the season's second half. But for now, you should view Mason as the head of a platoon who could ride the pine if the Rams fall behind. Zac Stacycan now be dropped in standard-sized leagues.
Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks (19.4 percent): With Percy Harvin gone, Baldwin assumed Seattle's No. 1 wideout role in Week 7 and wound up with 123 yards receiving on 11 targets and seven catches. Don't be blinded by the stats; no Seahawks WR is likely to produce like that on a weekly basis because Seattle runs a lot and has a lot of ancillary weapons. Instead, watch the tape and see Baldwin running free all day long. He is an agile route-runner with decent speed, and he reminds me of Julian Edelman. Like Edelman, Baldwin is best out of the slot and isn't an ideal red zone weapon, which might make him most attractive in PPR leagues.

Denard Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (0.5 percent): Shoelace busted out in Week 7, with 22 carries for 127 yards; he had 20 carries in his entire rookie season. So can you believe? I'm skeptical, but if anyone is ever going to emerge from that Jags backfield, Robinson now appears to be the best bet. He is certainly a straight-line burner, and when he gets the corner he can make the kind of big play the Jaguars have lacked. But he's not a superior all-around athlete, nor do I see much evidence that he is elusive in close quarters. Given how badly every other Jacksonville RB has struggled every other week, you have to give Shoelace credit, but you also have to wonder if this performance was fluky. I think you add him in any league where you need a RB but make him prove it to you again.

Bryce Brown, RB, Buffalo Bills (1.3 percent): C.J. Spiller is out for the season with a broken collarbone, and Fred Jackson will miss multiple weeks with a groin injury. So unless the Bills sign a free agent like BenJarvus Green-Ellis or Michael Bush, they will roll into Week 8 with Brown and Anthony Dixon (0.2 percent) in their backfield. Brown hasn't even been active for a regular-season game this year, but fans remember a couple sparkling weeks he had with thePhiladelphia Eagles two years ago. He possesses fantastic speed for a guy who goes 223 pounds, but he has been a one-trick pony who bounces everything outside. Oh, I guess he fumbles a lot too, so that's two tricks. All that said, Brown has more upside than almost any player you'll find on a waiver wire, and I would add him before Dixon, who could get a shot at the feature role but who looks like a plodder on tape.
Miami Dolphins defense (12.6 percent): The Jaguars got their first win in Week 7, but they still allowed a fairly mediocre Cleveland Browns defense to score eight fantasy points, including two sacks and three interceptions of Blake Bortles. The Fins generate sacks and turnovers in abundance, and without a truly scary-looking opponent until the Denver Broncos in Week 12, they could be a regular visitor to my D/ST top 10. They will be there this week anyway, I promise.
Other solid waiver adds, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Jerick McKinnon, RB, Vikings (11.7 percent); Ronnie Hillman, RB, Broncos (12.0 percent); Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns (29.8 percent); Odell Beckham, WR, Giants (20.2 percent); Josh Gordon, WR, Browns (13.0 percent); Owen Daniels, TE, Ravens (22.1 percent)
Speculative standard-league finds
Jonas Gray, RB, New England Patriots (0.0 percent): Shane Vereen looked like the very definition of a feature back in Week 7, but surely you know the Pats well enough by now to know they often change their backfield plans. The other interesting development Thursday was Gray playing ahead of Brandon Bolden and James White (who was inactive). A powerful straight-line runner reminiscent of injured Stevan Ridley, Gray could benefit most if New England plays tricks with its RBs again.
Jermaine Kearse, WR, Seahawks (4.6 percent): Kearse played in all two-receiver sets Sunday, graduating to a full-time job as a result of the Harvin trade. As I wrote above, if I'm speculating on anyone becoming relevant in a standard league, it's Doug Baldwin, but Kearse did have seven targets and three catches in Week 7. He is a flanker type without game-busting speed, but in this WR corps he's now what stands in for an end zone threat.
Martavis Bryant, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (0.4 percent): Bryant made his regular-season debut Monday night and flashed the size/speed combo that made him an intriguing dynasty-league prospect this spring. At 6-foot-4 and 211 pounds, Bryant runs a 4.42 40 and is an explosive leaper, which makes him a candidate to be the Steelers' No. 1 outside threat someday. He was never much of a dominator in college, though, and it's hard to see him instantly rising to fantasy stardom in his rookie year, but his 35-yard bomb TD in Week 7 was accompanied by a couple other deep shots. He's worth watching.
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Miami Dolphins, and Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals (12.7 and 9.6 percent, respectively): After Week 3, some folks were calling for Tannehill's job, but in three games since then he has a 72.3 percent completion rate, 799 passing yards, 6 TDs and 3 INTs and has run 14 times for 132 yards. I'm not saying you can trust him as a top-10 option because I think he's still sometimes squirrelly under pressure. But I defended him last month and I think he makes a nice QB streamer. As for Palmer, his first two games back from injury haven't produced big statistical days, but he looked better on tape in Week 7. He's a wild man winging the ball all over the place. One of these weeks he'll throw four picks, but another one of these weeks he'll toss for 400 yards and four touchdowns. If you need upside and don't mind scary downside, Palmer also is streamable.
Other speculative standard-league waiver adds, about whom I've written in previous weeks:Storm Johnson, RB, Jaguars (6.5 percent); Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers (25.2 percent); Benny Cunningham, RB, Rams (1.8 percent); Andre Holmes, WR, Raiders (18.1 percent);Brandon LaFell, WR, Patriots (7.1 percent); Markus Wheaton, WR, Steelers (15.0 percent);Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars (1.3 percent); Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns (10.1 percent)


Deeper-league finds

Stepfan Taylor, RB, Cardinals (0.9 percent): The Cardinals ran a whopping 37 times Sunday, and while Andre Ellington got 24 of those carries, Taylor looked the best I've seen him while totaling 59 yards from scrimmage. His two TDs are absolutely not worth chasing -- the second came after Ellington touched the ball on eight straight plays -- but deep-leaguers counting on Ellington might consider cuffing Taylor to their young star. He would inherit the job should Ellington's string of minor injuries turn serious.

Joseph Randle, RB, Dallas Cowboys(1.1 percent): Fantasy owners got a brutal vision of their possible future near the end of Sunday's first half, when DeMarco Murray twisted his ankle without contact and had to leave the game. Randle and Lance Dunbar (1.7 percent) split snaps (and two carries) in Murray's absence, then the potential fantasy MVP returned for the second half. As you're well aware, Murray is on pace to set a record for the most totes in a season, and he has been injury-prone. If he goes down, I doubt Randle gets the job for himself, as Dunbar has been effective too. But anyone running regularly behind that incredible O-line would have value.
Paul Richardson, WR, Seahawks (0.6 percent): Here's my third Seahawks wideout of the week. Seattle typically uses three-plus WRs on about two-thirds of its snaps, meaning that while Richardson won't have the full workload of Baldwin and Kearse, he will be out there a bunch. The rookie caught all four of his targets Sunday for 33 yards but didn't get a chance to show off his sprinter's speed. Draftniks give Richardson the kind of big-play upside of DeSean Jackson, though obviously he has much to prove before attaining that lofty status.
Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers (1.1 percent): Adams seems to have bypassedJarrett Boykin to serve as Aaron Rodgers' No. 3 WR, and the Packers go with three-plus WRs on about 80 percent of their offensive snaps. This can be a valuable role, and Adams caught his second TD in three games Sunday. However, that was his only target of the contest, and he hasn't eclipsed three targets in four of six games. True fantasy value will probably come only ifJordy Nelson or Randall Cobb gets hurt.

Other solid waiver adds for deep-leaguers, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Vikings (9.9 percent); Austin Davis, QB, Rams (5.0 percent); Antone Smith, RB, Falcons (11.7 percent); Juwan Thompson, RB, Broncos (0.7 percent); Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, Ravens (14.6 percent); Chris Polk, RB, Eagles (0.5 percent); Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers (16.8 percent); Louis Murphy, WR, Buccaneers (0.2 percent); Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins (0.9 percent); Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles (7.0 percent); Dwayne Allen, TE, Colts (28.4 percent);Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Buccaneers (0.5 percent); Tim Wright, TE, Patriots (3.7 percent);Jace Amaro, TE, Jets (2.9 percent)
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]32 fantasy tips to win in Week 8[/h][h=3]How to value Seattle's WRs and Eddie Lacy, plus more advice for the week ahead[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Mike Clay[/FONT] | Pro Football Focus

Below are 32 notes covering all 32 NFL teams. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions this week. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
(Note: I've written at length about opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD) in the past. If you're new to the stat, be sure to check out our introduction to rushing and receiving OTD. The OTD metric weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity.)
1. The Seahawks played their first game of the season sans Percy Harvin on Sunday, which gives us a better idea as to how they'll utilize their offensive personnel going forward. Jermaine Kearse (43 pass routes) and Doug Baldwin (41) were the top two wide receivers, as expected.Paul Richardson (31) was a major benefactor of the trade, as the 2014 second-round pick vaulted to third on the depth chart. The speedster will be limited by the team's run-heavy offense, but he has enough playmaking ability to warrant a bench spot in 12-team leagues.Kevin Norwood, Bryan Walters and Ricardo Lockette combined to run eight routes and aren't worth rostering.


2. Eddie Lacy has now handled less than 50 percent of the Packers' designed run attempts in three consecutive games. He worked 99 snaps during the span, only 27 more than James Starks. A balanced and high-scoring offense will keep Lacy on the RB1 radar, but he's unlikely to live up to his early-first-round ADP as long as Starks is in the mix.
3. With C.J. Spiller done for the season and Fred Jackson expected to miss a few weeks, Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon take over in Buffalo. On the year, the Bills have called a pass play on 73 percent of Jackson's snaps, compared to 49 percent of Spiller's. Dixon and especially Brown fit into Spiller's role on early downs, which means Jackson figures to return to his early-season gig (plus a few extra carries) once healthy. Now is a prime opportunity for teams with good records to buy low on Jackson. He'll be risky coming off the groin injury, but RB1 upside is hard to find this deep into the season.
<offer></offer>
4. Odell Beckham Jr. scored a pair of touchdowns for the Giants on Sunday, but don't get used to big-time scoring production from the rookie. At 5-foot-11, Beckham is no match for 6-2Rueben Randle, 6-5 Larry Donnell and even 6-4 Daniel Fells at the goal line. Additionally, Rashad Jennings, who despite missing two games still leads the league in carries from the opponent's 1-yard line, will likely return following the team's Week 8 bye. Beckham figures to settle in as a decent WR3 option, but Randle is the Giants receiver to own. He's now seen at least 31 percent of New York's targets in four of the club's last five games.
5. Cecil Shorts III is worth a mention after a disappointing three-catch, 13-yard game. Although that will scare away many, savvy owners will notice that he paced the Jaguars with eight targets. In the three games this season he's run at least 85 percent of the team's routes, Shorts has a total of 33 targets. An average of 11 targets per game is massive, but not terribly uncommon for Shorts. He was targeted 10-plus times in nine of his 13 games in 2013. Keep Shorts in your lineup against Miami this week.
6. Jermaine Gresham caught 10 passes for 48 yards for the Bengals on Sunday. That's not just low production, it's historically low production. Only one non-running back in NFL history has accrued fewer than 48 yards on 10 or more receptions (Cris Carter put up 46 yards on 10 receptions on Nov. 19, 2001). With A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert sidelined, Gresham's role as a pass-catcher has expanded, but he's just an underneath option for Andy Dalton. Gresham is nothing more than a desperation play during bye weeks.
7. The Browns failed to find the end zone on Sunday, which means Brian Hoyer has exceeded one passing touchdown in a game once this season. Geno Smith is the only other quarterback who has started all of his team's games and can say the same. Hoyer's 7-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio is healthy, but he does very little with his legs, operates a very run-heavy offense and is nothing more than a pedestrian talent. His ownership should be limited to leagues that start multiple quarterbacks.
8. Despite operating the league's run-heaviest offense, Tony Romo has tossed two or more touchdowns in each of the Cowboys' last five games. The Dallas offense ranks among the league leaders in plays per game (65.9) and touchdowns per game (3.0), which allows Romo plenty of opportunities to rack up fantasy points. He's a back-end QB1 option.
9. On the other hand we have the Texans, who, like the Cowboys, are very run-heavy, but unlike the Cowboys, don't score many touchdowns. In fact, Houston has totaled eight passing scores this season, including a total of five over its last five games. If you were wondering whyDeAndre Hopkins' fantasy stock was tumbling, you now know. The Texans' run-first philosophy and offensive struggles will limit the fantasy-relevant performers all season. Only Andre Johnson and Arian Foster should be locked into weekly starting lineups.
10. The Denver offense is on pace for roughly 61 touchdowns, which would put it well short of the 71 scored in 2013. Although 10 scores may seem like a lot, the Broncos are still scoring at a rate well ahead of the rest of the league. (The second-ranked Colts and Packers are on pace for just under 55 offensive scores.) Peyton Manning, Julius Thomas, Demaryius Thomas andEmmanuel Sanders are obvious weekly starts, but Wes Welker and the team's running backs are worth consideration as well. Ronnie Hillman is clearly a good short-term RB2 option, andMontee Ball is worth stashing in case he retakes the starting gig once healthy.


11. After tossing 33 touchdowns last season, Andy Dalton is on pace for an anemic 16 this season. The Bengals are about a half-touchdown per game behind their 2013 scoring rate, but they're still right around league average in the department. A massive drop in offensive plays (from 69.1 per game in 2013 to 61.2 in 2014) and a higher rate of touchdowns coming via the ground game (from 29 percent in 2013 to 50 percent in 2014) are key culprits on Dalton's demise. A below-average talent in a run-heavy offense, Dalton is well off the QB1 radar. Drop him in standard-sized leagues.
12. The Vikings' offense has shown flashes this season, but overall, it's been a nightmare. In their two wins, the Vikings have a total of seven offensive touchdowns. In their five losses, they have a total of three. It's rarely a good idea to invest roster space in the league's worst offense, but if there's a time to throw a dart at the likes of Cordarrelle Patterson and Greg Jennings, it's now. Up next on Minnesota's schedule are trips to Tampa Bay and Chicago, and a home game against Washington.
13. The 49ers have now gone four consecutive games without a rushing touchdown, and have a total of three on the year. San Francisco has scored 80 percent of its offensive touchdowns via the arm of Colin Kaepernick. That's compared to 52 percent over the past two seasons. The team's offensive struggles, tough schedule going forward and heavier reliance on its passing game -- as well as Carlos Hyde's increased role -- are all reasons to dislike Frank Gore's fantasy prospects. He's a borderline RB2, and not even a strong flex option in PPR.
14. The Titans' Kendall Wright entered the 2014 season with six career touchdowns. Through seven weeks, he's already added four to that total. A look at Wright's OTD, however, suggests that's he's probably not going to keep up this rate. Wright has more touchdowns than end zone targets (three), which is never a good sign. He's had to run at least 5 yards after the catch on three of the four scores, which is a hard rate for even the best players to achieve consistently. Wright is on pace for nine touchdowns, but expect him to finish closer to seven.
15. Only Beckham put up a higher receiving OTD than the Bills' Sammy Watkins in Week 7. Watkins scored on two of his 14 targets. Both touchdowns came on end zone targets, bringing his total to three on the year. Currently eighth in the league in targets, Kyle Orton isn't slowing Watkins' progress toward a WR2 rookie campaign.
16. Detroit's Golden Tate sits sixth in the NFL with 63 targets, but incredibly ranks 109th in receiving OTD. His 1.0 OTD suggests that he's lucky even to have scored twice this season. Tate has seen only one target while within 8 yards of the end zone (a converted end zone target). Tate is a top-10 fantasy wideout as long as Calvin Johnson is out, but his late-season upside will be limited if he doesn't see more work near the goal line.
17. Among the top 25 wide receivers in terms of fantasy points, only one has yet to catch 20 passes this season. The Cowboys' Terrance Williams is fantasy's 12th-ranked wideout thanks to touchdowns on six of his 19 receptions. Williams has seven scores on 11 career end zone targets, which is impressive, but unlikely to be sustainable. Seeing just 14 percent of Dallas' targets, Williams is an obvious sell candidate.
18. Baltimore, Dallas and Seattle are the only teams to have scored at least one rushing touchdown in six different games this season. That's not an easy feat when you consider that just under two-thirds of league-wide offensive touchdowns are of the passing variety. Justin Forsett is Baltimore's lead back, but note that he's not the main benefactor here. Forsett is third on the team with two carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line. He trails both Bernard Pierce (five) and Lorenzo Taliaferro (four). DeMarco Murray (four) and Marshawn Lynch (three) are responsible for 100 percent of their team's carries inside the 5-yard line. Incredibly, Murray has scored on all four tries.
19. In last week's edition of Fantasy 32, I projected Ahmad Bradshaw's imminent regression in the touchdown department. He responded promptly by scoring twice in the Colts' very next game. Although this definitely adds to his sell-high appeal, Bradshaw did something he hadn't done all season in his game: He carried the ball within 3 yards of the end zone for the first (and second) time this season. Still, with Trent Richardson in the picture and Bradshaw still without an end zone target despite seven receiving touchdowns, this is an obvious regression situation. Unless he takes over as the Colts' clear lead back, Bradshaw is a mid-pack RB2 option.

20. After averaging 7.5 targets per game during the Rams' first four games, Brian Quick has a total of five over the past two weeks. Although it's fair to expect his target numbers to rebound (he's easily St. Louis' best wide receiver, after all), Quick's minuscule usage near the goal line this season is a legitimate concern. Quick has seen just two targets while within 10 yards of the end zone. Fortunately for his fantasy owners, both were converted end zone targets. Quick is a risky WR3 start until his targets and red zone usage rise.


21. No player exceeded Joique Bell's 1.5 rushing OTD in Week 7. Detroit's lead back is now fifth in the category this season, which has helped him to a trio of rushing touchdowns. Bell has converted both tries from the opponent's 1-yard line, and has handled eight of the nine attempts by Detroit running backs within 6 yards of the end zone. Bell is a strong RB2.
22. Tailbacks score 54 percent of the time from the opposing 1-yard line, which is a significantly higher rate than any other distance. Here are your leaders this season:
5 - Rashad Jennings
3 - Stevan Ridley, Trent Richardson, Alfred Morris, Matt Forte
2 - Knowshon Moreno, Ben Tate, Toby Gerhart, Giovani Bernard, Lorenzo Taliaferro, Joe Flacco, Arian Foster, Bernard Pierce, Joique Bell, DeMarco Murray, Darren McFadden

23. An end zone target is converted into a touchdown 37 percent of the time. So far in 2014, your leaders in the category are as follows:
12 - Jordy Nelson
11 - Antonio Gates, Brandon Marshall, Antonio Brown
10 - Vincent Jackson
9 - Steve Smith, Randall Cobb, Kelvin Benjamin
8 - Rueben Randle, Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas

24. After failing to see a single end zone target during Denver's first four games, Emmanuel Sanders has three over the team's last two games. He scored his first touchdown of the season on Sunday night. That's the good news. The bad news is that Sanders' targets have plummeted since Wes Welker returned from suspension. Sanders totaled 33 targets during Denver's first three games, but has 18 over the last three. Roughly six targets per game in an elite offense is enough for Sanders to post quality WR2 numbers, but he'll need to continue seeing occasional looks near the goal line.
25. Entering Sunday, only Sanders had more targets than the Jaguars' Allen Robinson among players without a receiving touchdown this season. As it did for Sanders, the force that is regression to the mean helped Robinson finally find paydirt. Robinson has quietly been very busy this season, handling at least 20 percent of Jacksonville's targets each of the past six games. Touchdowns will be elusive going forward, but Robinson is playing enough to warrant WR3 consideration most weeks.
26. Now that Sanders and Robinson scored, Keenan Allen takes over as this season's leader in targets (50) among players without a touchdown. Owners should expect him to find paydirt very soon. Allen is seeing 23 percent of San Diego's targets, which is actually higher than his 22 percent mark last season. He's a disappointing 0-for-4 on end zone targets, but was an impressive 6-of-14 in the category as a rookie. Allen is one of the most attractive and most obvious buy-low options still on the market.
27. Opponents of the Chiefs target their wide receivers on an NFL-high 69 percent of their throws. The league average in the category is 60 percent. Kansas City has held opposing wide receivers in check, for the most part, but it's clear clubs are game-planning around attacking their secondary. The Chiefs face off with the Rams, Jets and Bills over the next three weeks. Quick, Watkins, Harvin and Eric Decker get a boost in PPR leagues.
28. On the other hand, teams are targeting the wide receiver position a league-low 52 percent of the time when New England is the opponent. As a result, the Patriots have held opposing wideouts to a total of three touchdowns on the year. Prior to their Week 10 bye, the Patriots face off with Chicago and Denver. Sanders, Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery should remain in starting lineups, but look for Julius Thomas and Martellus Bennett to see an uptick in production in New England.
29. For whatever reason, the Cardinals' dominant run defense doesn't seem to get much attention despite consistently shutting down opposing rushing attacks since last season. If we normalize to account for outliers (end-arounds, scrambles, high-volume games against very good rushers), Arizona is allowing 3.1 yards per carry, which is best in the NFL. That's after they were best in the category in 2013. Next up for the Cardinals are clashes with superstarsLeSean McCoy and DeMarco Murray. Expect down weeks for both players.
30. Of the 21 touchdowns allowed by the Falcons' defense this season, a league-high 62 percent (13 total) are of the rushing variety. Opposing teams have called a pass play 52 percent of the time against Atlanta, which is the second-lowest rate in the league. Finally, only the Buccaneers' and Panthers' defenses are allowing more touchdowns on a per-game basis. With Detroit, Tampa Bay and Carolina due up over the next four weeks, be sure to upgrade Joique Bell, Reggie Bush, Doug Martin and Jonathan Stewart.
31. Mark Ingram returned from injury in Week 7 and quickly returned to his role as the club's primary between-the-tackles back. Pierre Thomas started the game and played 23 snaps, but Ingram was in on five plays before Khiry Robinson, his chief competition for reps, even saw the field. Ingram went on to play 23 snaps and is back on the flex radar. Thomas missed time with a shoulder injury, which allowed Travaris Cadet to play 20 snaps in the game. New Orleans called for a pass play on all 20 of those snaps, which allowed Cadet seven targets. Considering the Saints have called for a pass on 96 percent (not a typo) of Cadet's snaps this season, he's on the PPR radar as long as Thomas is out of action.

32. The Jets are the only team in the league to have allowed at least two passing touchdowns in all of their games this season. The 18-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio allowed by the New York defense is worst in the league. It's worth noting that the schedule has been tough, but with Dee Millinerdone for the year, this is clearly a plus matchup for opposing quarterbacks. Streamers should take a look at Kyle Orton, Alex Smith and Ben Roethlisberger over the next three weeks.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Fantasy advice on Ryan, Stafford[/h][h=3]Berry and Dilfer offer tips on struggling QBs, Percy Harvin, Bengals offense[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Matthew Berry[/FONT] and [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Trent Dilfer[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

Every week during the NFL season, Matthew Berry will be engaging in a discussion with an NFL expert on topics that will provide valuable insights for fantasy owners. For this pre-Week 8 edition, Berry and ESPN NFL analyst Trent Dilfer look at fantasy QBs who have underperformed compared to preseason expectations. Plus, they look at fallout from the Percy Harvin deal and reflect on their early-season fantasy trade involving Cordarrelle Patterson and Rob Gronkowski.
[h=3]How should fantasy owners handle underperforming QBs?[/h]Matthew Berry: Trent, I'm really excited to be talking to you about these fantasy topics. You're a master of film study for us here at ESPN, a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, and, most importantly, a former champion of the ESPN War Room fantasy football league -- as am I. I think it's the first time two former champions have gotten together to talk fantasy football like this.
Trent Dilfer: We're making history here.
Berry: I want to ask you about several quarterbacks who have underperformed in fantasy based on preseason expectations, but let's start with the entire Cincinnati Bengals offense. Forgetting fantasy football for a minute, Andy Dalton just drives me nuts when I watch him. On that play Sunday, when he swings it out to Giovani Bernard and he just gets blown up by Colts cornerbackVontae Davis -- keep in mind that I'm a Bernard owner -- it looked like he was trying to get Bernard killed. To me, it looked like he had no awareness, and that offense as a whole can be frustrating to watch. Do you think Dalton is better or worse than he gets credit for?


Dilfer: I think that every pass has a story. A throw like the one that led to Davis laying a "slobberknocker" hit on Bernard is an everyday throw that they practice all the time. Dalton is making that throw while trusting that the other 10 guys on the offense do their job, and in that case, the wide receiver is supposed to block the corner, which he didn't do. Instead, it looks like Dalton made a mistake and we all watch it and say, "Dalton's trying to get that guy killed."
Now, I'm not trying to make excuses for Dalton. I think he is talented, smart and tough. But is he close to being great? No. He is proof of how dependent the position is on the players around it -- except in the few elite cases. We describe a QB's supporting cast as his "weapons" -- I do it, too -- but there's more to it than that. And even in a case like the Bengals where there's a lot of talent in the supporting cast, it doesn't always perform to its ability every week.
That brings me to A.J. Green. The Bengals are historically bad on third down and have been for a few years. It's a down where multiplicity is key, and the Bengals don't have it, in part because their most talented weapon, Green, is something of a one-trick pony. He is an outstanding vertical threat with his straight-line speed, explosive burst, length and catch radius. He has very good linear route-running ability, and not just on go-routes -- he can run stop routes, comebacks. But where he struggles is that he isn't good at beating complex zones, particularly finding the soft spots in defenses. That limits him and the Bengals on third down, because if the defense can avoid letting him get the one-on-one vertical looks he wants, the Bengals are forced to go inside, and the defense knows it.
So a big part of why the Bengals are so frustrating to watch is that they're limited on third down. They just aren't as good personnel-wise in those situations as people think they are -- there's a lot of sizzle, but not a lot of steak. That's not to attack Green, because he is a special talent and a very good player. But of the top-tier talents in this league, Green might be the one who most needs to hone his craft in order to expand his game. That's something to watch when he returns from injury.
Berry: I love this stuff. I don't know exactly how to translate it to fantasy as it relates to Green's value, because we still don't know when he'll return from injury, and his upcoming schedule is pretty favorable, so I don't think I want to sell him if I'm an owner. Perhaps it's worth looking at him as a buy-low candidate if the owner who has him in your league is getting antsy because of the health issue. Dalton isn't worth owning outside of deep leagues, as his production is a far cry from his top-five fantasy status of a year ago. Bernard does make me a little concerned, and maybe he's a sell-high guy now if you can get a good offer.
Let's move on to Falcons QB Matt Ryan, who has had a rough start to the season from a fantasy perspective. No one questions his talent, but the offensive line is just crumbling around him, and his upcoming schedule isn't great. I'm wondering if he can be trusted as a top-10 fantasy QB the rest of the way.
Dilfer: I've always loved Ryan because he makes big-boy throws instead of everyday throws. In the league right now, you don't see a lot of big-boy throws; by these I mean throws that are in the air for a long time, throws that pierce the defense and require a lot of arm talent, anticipation and synergy with wide receivers. I'm talking about Dan Marino- or Troy Aikman-type throws. Very few NFL QBs do that right now, but Ryan is one of them.
But here's the problem for Ryan (and his fantasy owners) right now: In order to make those kind of big-boy throws, you need to be able to protect your quarterback. So the playcallers aren't going to call as many big-boy throws, and instead it's the everyday throws, such as quick screens and quick outs -- the high-percentage passes that can move the chains but are less likely to lead to chunk plays. So while Ryan's completion percentage might rise, his fantasy production probably takes a hit because he'll be throwing for fewer yards and putting up less dynamic stats overall. But it's good news for the fantasy value of his receivers, especially in PPR leagues.
Ryan is a fantastic player. If he's ever surrounded by a good offensive line that can protect him, we'll be talking about him as one of the league's elite players. But because of the team's protection issues, he's far less dynamic right now.
Berry: I think Ryan has been a better real-life QB than a fantasy QB so far this season. To your point, Trent, the offensive line has been a mess, and the Falcons also have a struggling running game and a bad defense. I don't think he'll have success against Detroit this weekend, and the longer-term outlook isn't good, either.
What about the QB he'll be going up against this week, the Lions' Matthew Stafford? Throughout his career, he's always been very dependent on Calvin Johnson, in my opinion. He'd put up great numbers with him, but without him, he struggles. Johnson is banged up right now, and Stafford's recent fantasy performance hasn't been very good. Can he be a top-10 fantasy QB the rest of the way?
Dilfer: Stafford is my fantasy quarterback, so I've weathered the storm with him. I did try to trade him to Tim Hasselbeck in order to get Tony Romo, but that didn't work out.


I'll put it this way: I'm not bullish on Stafford, but I'm a believer. I also think that fantasy quarterbacks can be like pitchers and hitters in baseball: Those guys always believe that if you're a career .270 hitter, and you have one great .300 season, you're going to go back to hitting .270 the next year. You are who you are, and eventually you regress back to it -- good or bad. In this case, I think Stafford's volume of throws will get back to where it was before. The roster is built for it, once Johnson comes back, with Golden Tate, Eric Ebron and good pass-catching backs in Reggie Bush and Joique Bell.
Right now, the team is being stubborn on offense, emphasizing ball control, the running game and trusting the defense, and I'm taking it on the chin from a fantasy perspective as a result. But I believe Stafford will trend more toward big stats and big fantasy point totals as the season goes on. They're going to have to throw themselves to victory in more games than they have so far.
Berry: I love Stafford's upcoming schedule, especially when you see who he'll be facing during the fantasy playoffs. In your case, you're 5-2 right now and could definitely get there, and he could be really productive for you. Obviously, if you're a Stafford owner, you'll feel better once Johnson is back, but in the meantime, I think Stafford is a buy-low candidate.
I'm curious to get your take on the Percy Harvin trade. Some say it'll help him from a fantasy standpoint to go from the Seahawks to the Jets, while others see it as a downgrade. What do you think of his value, along with that of guys like Geno Smith, Eric Decker and Jace Amaro?
Dilfer: One advantage I have as a former player is being able to understand the politics that go on within each football building. I base a lot of my predictions -- be they game picks or fantasy football roster decisions -- on the politics of the NFL. And the politics of this deal are the following: The Jets went big on this trade, and they are going to change the offense in order to get Harvin the ball as a result. Marty Mornhinweg is likely drawing up plays for him as we speak, and I'll be shocked if Harvin doesn't average over eight touches per game going forward. Mornhinweg has a creative mind and will get him involved ASAP. Remember, Smith might not connect on all of his deep throws, but he can stretch the field vertically.
So if I'm a Harvin owner, I'm really excited about him going to the Jets. As for those others you mentioned, I think Amaro is more likely to benefit than Decker. This offense is going to look to attack the middle of the field with Harvin, Amaro and the running backs. Decker will get isolation matchups outside, but that doesn't mean they'll always throw it to him. The Texans on Monday night had lots of outside matchups but chose not to throw it because they were working on other concepts. Amaro is the guy who I think could get some good opportunities as a result of Harvin's arrival -- Decker will be limited to getting a big play here or there.
Berry: As a Harvin owner, I'm very excited to hear you say that. I look at it this way: Harvin was tied for 68th among wide receivers in fantasy points per game entering Week 7 -- there's really nowhere to go but up.
Amaro is a guy who's out there in a lot of leagues, so he could be worth a pickup if you need a TE. And Smith could be useful in some two-QB leagues.
What about Jaguars running back Denard Robinson? He figures to be one of the top pickup targets this week because of his big week in their win over the Browns, but he isn't built like a prototypical back, having played QB at Michigan, and his team has issues on the offensive line. I'm curious as to whether you think he'll have long-term success.
Dilfer: No, I don't. My concern for him is durability. Thin, small-jointed guys who get in lots of collision don't last long in the NFL; and while that's true at any position, running back is a position where you are involved in a lot of collisions. The durability just isn't there.
But for fantasy purposes, I'd take a flier on him if you need a back. He could catch lightning in a bottle for a few weeks.
Berry: You're right about him being worth a flier. He's a starting running back in the NFL, after all; that carries with it a lot of value in fantasy football. But I really don't think they can block effectively for him, and I don't love the matchups he has coming up. I wouldn't bet on him for the long term.
Last question for you: We made a trade earlier this season in the War Room League, with me sending you Cordarrelle Patterson for Rob Gronkowski. Now, in general, I get nervous when you offer me a deal, knowing how much tape you study and how many coaches, players and front-office people you talk to around the league. Whenever I get a trade offer from you, I always ask myself, "What does Trent know?"
This one was even tougher, because Patterson was a guy I loved in the preseason. He's an absolute physical freak, both big and fast, and I've seen the success Norv Turner has had as an offensive coordinator throughout his career, particularly with vertical threats at wide receiver. Patterson had a tough start to the season, which has continued for the most part, but you were interested in him anyway. Why was that, and what do you expect from him going forward?
Dilfer: Well, for starters, I wanted to draft him really badly and was mad I didn't get him. I talked to Turner a lot about him in the offseason, and knew they really liked him, that he was picking up the offense well in the offseason and was a versatile athlete who could be used in different ways and kind of be the staple guy of their passing game. I thought he'd be a breakout fantasy player and just a fun guy to watch.
On the other end of it, Gronk is a young man in an old man's body. One of my core beliefs about the NFL is the importance of health and how debilitating it can be for guys who have suffered a lot of injuries, and I just didn't trust him to stay healthy. Younger players stay healthy, and I wanted the younger player.
I'm still holding out hope for Patterson. Turner is one of the best in the league at developing his offenses as the season goes along -- they don't just stay the same the whole time. So I could see them running a lot of slip and bubble screens for him, some slants, some inside- and out-breaking routes for him, kind of the way the Seahawks used Golden Tate last season. That was my thought in dealing for him, anyway, but it's pretty clear at this point that you won that trade.
Berry: Well, I'm mostly just glad to know that I wasn't crazy for loving Patterson in the preseason, and that you saw it, too. But here's the thing: Gronk still might not stay healthy; there's a long season to go. And right now you're sitting at 5-2 and I'm desperately hoping that Megatron will return. My team is hurting without him, so it's hard to argue with the results.
Dilfer: The trade must have improved my team chemistry.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Backfield breakdown entering Week 8
in.gif
[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Eric Karabell[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

The running back hero in the first [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]New England Patriots[/FONT] game after the [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Stevan Ridley[/FONT] season-ending knee injury was obviously [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Shane Vereen[/FONT]. He scored 23 fantasy points, which [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]led all NFL running backs[/FONT] in Week 7.

Vereen did most of his statistical damage with two touchdown receptions, the first early on when the New York Jets simply failed to cover him on what became a 49-yard touchdown pass fromTom Brady. Otherwise, Vereen seemed ordinary but certainly busy, rushing 11 times for 43 yards, one of them a 17-yarder. Vereen is a good player, but it was another Patriots running back who piqued my interest and perhaps yours as well, and this is noted on the ESPN Fantasy running back chart.

Jonas Gray, who averaged 6.9 yards per rush and scored 12 touchdowns as a senior at Notre Dame way back in 2011 -- he scored on more than 10 percent of his carries, so he wasn't very busy -- found his way to the Patriots in January, and after being cut by the team in August, he was signed to the practice squad. He's maybe 5-foot-11, but built strong and wide at 230 pounds. While the fantasy world tripped over itself speculating about Brandon Bolden and James White stepping up to replace Ridley, Patriots coach Bill Belichick promoted the practice squad guy and furnished him with 12 snaps and three rushing attempts, which turned into 12 yards. It's not much, but Bolden saw no carries on his lone offensive snap, and White was still inactive. Take that, all-knowing fantasy owners! And don't be surprised when Gray cuts into Vereen's rushing attempts in future weeks, too.

None of this means Gray is a must-add in standard fantasy leagues, but the scene is set for this to become a relevant player. As my colleague and noted Patriots fan Christopher Harris says in this exquisite video -- man, he's got lots of books at home! -- the Patriots often do the unconventional thing and rely on unpredictability, but it's clear Gray has moved up to No. 2 on the team's running back depth chart. It doesn't matter how he got to this team or any labels, or even the fact that he wasn't really a college star and that his work at Notre Dame, by the way, was three years ago. Gray, who has worked for the Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens since college but didn't play in a game, probably earned his promotion with his work ethic, but he also picked up several of the Jets' blitzes and protected Brady. And he's a punishing runner, more so than Ridley. Let's see if he can hold on to the football.

Other running back notes: There are a few new names in the Buffalo Bills' hierarchy, withBryce Brown likely to be the most popular one for fantasy owners. That's fair. But I made him the handcuff to Anthony Dixon for now, because that's what the Bills are likely to do. … Everyone's desperate to find the handcuff for the current best player in fantasy, but I don't see imminent injury hitting DeMarco Murray. Joseph Randle is probably next in line, though. … It should come as no surprise to anyone that the new starter for the Jacksonville Jaguars is Denard Robinson, and for the St. Louis Rams, it's Tre Mason. Feel free to drop Toby Gerhart, Storm Johnson and Zac Stacy. … Mark Ingram returns to the top of the New Orleans Saints' depth chart, especially with Pierre Thomas out with a shoulder injury. Not listed on the chart but suddenly interesting in deep leagues, especially point-per-reception formats, is Travaris Cadet. He catches passes. He caught six passes on nine targets Sunday, and Khiry Robinson does not catch passes. … Don't worry about the Arizona Cardinals' Andre Ellington, as he played well in Week 7, but Stepfan Taylor is bigger and coming off a multi-touchdown performance, he is worth a handcuff in deeper formats. … Looking ahead, the New York Giants could get Rashad Jenningsback after their Week 8 bye, so prepare accordingly. And we keep an eye on the Atlanta Falconsand Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as respective starters Steven Jackson and Doug Martin have been disappointments, and Antone Smith and Bobby Rainey lurk.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Week 8 flex rankings
in.gif
[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Eric Karabell[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

Welcome to Week 8 and another flex rankings with some new names and situations to evaluate, and not just in Buffalo. In general you'll see I trust the reliable names with a track record of excellent performance at the top, but acknowledge that some of the underperforming options from the past few weeks -- perhaps all of the 2014 weeks -- aren't worth using to the degree we once believed. Regardless, all fantasy teams are different so do the best you can with your decisions, whether choosing a running back, wide receiver or tight end. And don't choose any[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]San Francisco 49ers[/FONT] or [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]New York Giants[/FONT], for those clubs are on a bye this weekend.As always, best of luck to all in Week 8 and beyond!
1. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys: When will this amazing streak end? And it is amazing, because no running back has ever started a season like this. Well, I think it continues.

2. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks: Don't be swayed by a couple of six-point fantasy outings. This remains a top option and Russell Wilson isn't likely to keep running at this pace.

3. Matt Forte, RB, Bears: That's three consecutive 20-point fantasy efforts. It doesn't matter who he's playing or where.

4. Arian Foster, RB, Texans

5. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers

6. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos

7. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs: There's some concern that he suffered a concussion Sunday -- not that it will cost him this week, but that another one would do more damage. That said, I don't really sell high.

8. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys: He has achieved double digits in fantasy points in five of six weeks.

9. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Steelers: He has done it five consecutive weeks.

10. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers: His worst game has featured 84 receiving yards, and now he faces the No. 1 defense in preventing fantasy points to wide receivers. And I ranked him 10th.

11. Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins

12. Golden Tate, WR, Lions: Calvin Johnson could still play, and if he does, you bet I move Tate's rank down. It's not being mean, it's the right thing to do. Would still be a top-20 WR, though.

13. Randall Cobb, WR, Packers

14. Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals: Tough matchup against a stingy Ravens defense, but they haven't faced a running back like this in a while.

15. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles: Cardinals do a nice job against the run. Eagles have to throw some passes McCoy's way.

16. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons

17. Andre Ellington, RB, Cardinals

18. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals: Figures to return to the lineup and yes, he's worth trusting. He's that good.

19. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts: Loss of Reggie Wayne helps him a bit, but he was going to have a big game regardless.

20. Ben Tate, RB, Browns: Figures to bounce back nicely against the Raiders. Most running backs do.

21. Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers: The fact he's sharing touches is only relevant if he's not producing. He is.

22. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles

23. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos

24. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Colts: One of the surprises of the season has scored in double digits in five of seven games.

25. Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots

26. Justin Forsett, RB, Ravens

27. Joique Bell, RB, Lions: It's apparently his backfield now, though he's not catching many passes. His owners shouldn't complain.

28. Pierre Garcon, WR, Redskins: People can't understand it, but it really doesn't matter to me so much which quarterback starts. Not in Garcon's case.

29. Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins

30. Julius Thomas, TE, Broncos: What!?! He didn't score two touchdowns in Week 7!?! He must be awful. (He's not awful.)

31. Jerick McKinnon, RB, Vikings: Give credit where it's due. He's the man for now, though the upside of the offense remains muted because the quarterback hasn't a clue what he's doing. McKinnon will probably get overrated in fantasy circles.

32. Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears

33. Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins: His owners want to punt, but that's a bad idea. It's not as if he suddenly got bad. Then again, I'm not trading a lot for him, either.

34. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Panthers: Solid rookie campaign continues with no end in sight.

35. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears: Guy on Twitter asked me if he could drop Jeffery for McKinnon. Yeah, sure, go for it. (That's sarcasm.) The four consecutive weeks of double-digit fantasy numbers meant nothing. Seriously, it hasn't been a great season for Jeffery, but perspective is needed.

36. Chris Ivory, RB, Jets: He's so much fun to watch when it's going well. Last week it went well.

37. Steve Smith, WR, Ravens

38. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints: I seem to be the one trusting him more than others, but let's not forget how great he is. And I think he's healthy enough.

39. Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots: I'd sell high. If the Jets cover that opening touchdown, it's an ordinary fantasy outing. But they didn't.

40. Ronnie Hillman, RB, Broncos: Montee Ball might have to wait until next year, folks.

41. Roddy White, WR, Falcons: Just when his owners wanted to give up, he shines again.

42. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans

43. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots

44. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints: Not an inspiring return statistically, but the team will give him the rushing attempts.

45. DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins

46. Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers: It's a wise time to buy low. He's talented. Mike Glennon is capable. The schedule gets better.

47. Branden Oliver, RB, Chargers: No Ryan Mathews this week, but the time is coming. I bet Oliver sticks around as relevant.

48. Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers: He has thrived in Denver before, with four touchdowns in two games there. Look it up.

49. Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals: I don't think the Eagles pitch a shutout this time.

50. Denard Robinson, RB, Jaguars

51. Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills: Nobody said he wasn't talented. Quarterback change has helped, for sure.

52. Tre Mason, RB, Rams: So much for the advertised time share. Ah, coaches. You can tell when they're not telling the truth because their lips are moving.

53. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers

54. Terrance Williams, WR, Cowboys: Kind of light on the receptions lately, which is a concern moving ahead.

55. Marques Colston, WR, Saints

56. Trent Richardson, RB, Colts

57. Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers

58. Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks: Celebrated the dumping of his teammate with a signature performance. Just don't expect it each week. Like when the Seahawks are winning.

59. Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens: He and Steve Smith are sharing targets a lot more lately.

60. Bishop Sankey, RB, Titans

61. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans

62. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals

63. Anthony Dixon, RB, Bills: It's easy to say he's not that good and can't put up numbers, but nobody really knows. He has never seen opportunity. It's just amazing how so many people are dismissing him as the stopgap.

64. Kendall Wright, WR, Titans

65. Wes Welker, WR, Broncos: Well, at least he scored a touchdown. But you can see he's not a major factor.

66. Reggie Bush, RB, Lions: Speaking of not being a major factor, wow.

67. Mohamed Sanu, WR, Bengals: If A.J. Green sits, move him up 10 spots. Or 20.

68. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders: It's going to take a few more weeks for me to buy in. I'm serious. This isn't some rookie. His track record for causing us pain is immense.

69. Brandin Cooks, WR, Saints

70. Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns

71. Percy Harvin, WR, Jets: Sure, he's a great teammate until he sees a Geno Smith pass fly 10 feet over his head and out of bounds. Invest if you want, but this is not a great situation.

72. Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars

73. Bernard Pierce, RB, Ravens: Has carved out a decent role, and while it's a disappointment, he's got some value.

74. Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears

75. James Jones, WR, Raiders

76. Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers: Kind of hard to believe he's on pace for the best numbers of his career, but it's true.

77. Hakeem Nicks, WR, Colts: Never thought you'd see this name again, eh? But with Reggie Wayne on the shelf, Andrew Luck needs weapons. Watch Donte Moncrief get them instead!

78. Steven Jackson, RB, Falcons: His season is going wonderfully. Let us know when he rushes for 60 yards in a game. Not likely this week.

79. Cecil Shorts III, WR, Jaguars

80. Eric Decker, WR, Jets

81. Khiry Robinson, RB, Saints: The loss of Pierre Thomas shouldn't affect him much.

82. Bobby Rainey, RB, Buccaneers: He just needs Doug Martin to keep underachieving. Chances are good.

83. Greg Jennings, WR, Vikings

84. James Starks, RB, Packers: Sure, he's stealing touches from Lacy, but so what, if he doesn't do something with them?

85. Darren Sproles, RB, Eagles: Perhaps he plays, but the bigger story is he hasn't done much statistically since Week 2. Not sure why his owners would activate him.

86. Andre Holmes, WR, Raiders

87. Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Vikings: Who would have thought the loss of Matt Cassel would matter so much?

88. Chris Johnson, RB, Jets

89. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs

90. Bryce Brown, RB, Bills: I'd like to see what he could do with a legit chance at regular touches, but I don't see it happening this week. This guy could be forgotten in a month.

91. Travaris Cadet, RB, Saints: This guy could matter, though, if he continues to catch passes and Thomas doesn't return healthy.

92. Jonas Gray, RB, Patriots: Who? Well, he's big and Vereen isn't. Remember the name.

93. Jordan Reed, TE, Redskins

94. Brandon LaFell, WR, Patriots

95. Brian Quick, WR, Rams

96. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers: Not sure why I ever rank a Panthers running back.

97. Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs

98. Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers

99. Justin Hunter, WR, Titans

100. Stepfan Taylor, RB, Cardinals

Others: Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers; Delanie Walker, TE, Titans; Louis Murphy, WR, Buccaneers; Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns; Matt Asiata, RB, Vikings; Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals;Davante Adams, WR, Packers; Knile Davis, RB, Chiefs; Benjamin Cunningham, RB, Rams; Zac Stacy, RB, Rams; Corey Fuller, WR, Lions; LeGarrette Blount, RB, Steelers; Alfred Blue, RB, Texans


 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Start Romo, bench Gio (and more)[/h][h=3]Use Insider's ultimate matchup tool to set your lineup[/h]
By Christopher Harris | ESPN Insider

Matchups are often a deciding factor for fantasy owners making lineup decisions between two or more players in their lineups, but gauging the difficulty of each player's matchup can be tricky. That's where the Harris Index come in -- providing fantasy owners with a schedule-independent way to assess how strong opponents really are.
Each week, I'll update the Harris Index and offer a few nuggets about possible starts and sits based on the numbers. But please scroll down and play with the chart, sorting by various columns to discover which opponents are best and worst for your players to face.
Finally, please realize that this index is just one instrument I use in creating my weekly ranks. To get a direct sense of which players I think you should start and sit, please consult those rankings.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]Good matchup: Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys. Washington just keeps giving up big outings to opposing QBs, so let's keep riding the QBs who face them. Romo has scored between 16 and 24 fantasy points in each of his past four contests, but belongs to that genus of signal-callers who can crush you with a terrible week. This week doesn't figure to contain such downside.
<offer></offer>
Bad matchup: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons. Ryan is hard to sit because even when his team isn't competitive, his passing volume is high. His 44 attempts Sunday were second-most in Week 7, and he's been over 40 in a whopping five of seven contests. But he's outside my top 10 this week for the first time all season, thanks to a rough matchup against the Detroit Lions.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]Running backs[/h]Good matchup: Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens. It's Forsett's second straight week on the "good" list, as he gets to face a Cincinnati Bengals defense that's struggled against the run in two of their past three, as Ahmad Bradshaw, Trent Richardson, Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen lit them up. Remember also that Forsett himself had 11 carries for 70 yards and a TD in Week 1 against Cincy.
Good matchup: Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Martin enters a stretch of games (vs. Minnesota, at Cleveland, vs. Atlanta) that will define his season. If he can't bounce back from an injury-filled and lackluster first month while facing these porous run defenses, it may be time to cut bait.
Bad matchup: Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals. Gio was last seen getting hung out to dry by Andy Dalton in Week 7, but he's healthy enough to go Sunday against the Ravens. In Week 1, Bernard managed only 10 points against Baltimore, which turns out to be not that shameful: No team has exceeded its five-week moving average for RB fantasy points against the Ravens yet this year.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]Wide receiver[/h]Good matchup: Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks. In Percy Harvin's absence Sunday, Baldwin busted out for seven catches, 123 receiving yards and a touchdown. That won't be a typical stat line for any Seattle wideout, but Baldwin has an enticing matchup in Week 8 against a Carolina Panthers defense that's tacked eight fantasy points onto the averages of opposing WR corps over the past five weeks.
Bad matchup: Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills. The Harris Index is pure math, and math doesn't tell you everything. But it's interesting that the New York Jets secondary, which has been criticized in countless media stories this season, has taken nearly six fantasy points away from opposing WR corps in the past five weeks. That doesn't mean Watkins is a must-bench; he's inside my top 30 WRs this week. But he may not have the cake matchup many folks believe.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]Defense/Special teams[/h]Miami Dolphins D/ST. It almost lines up too perfectly: The Dolphins have averaged 11 fantasy points per game during the past five weeks, and they play a Jacksonville Jaguars squad that tacks 5.8 points onto the averages of opposing defenses in that same span. Such a harmonic mathematical convergence sometimes has an unexpected ending. But I'm still using the Fins if I can.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]The Harris Index: Week 8[/h]Each number presented here reflects how far above or below a player's average a defense holds opponents at each position. Read the index thusly: "Team X currently holds an opposing QB to this many fantasy points above (for a positive number) or below (for a negative number) the QB's average."
Numbers that appear with a light green background indicate a statistically significant positive matchup; those with a light red background are a statistically significant negative matchup. Dark green and dark red mean extreme matchups on either end of the spectrum.
[h=3]Harris Index: Week 8[/h]<i style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"><inline1>
TeamQB
Past5
QB
2014
RB
Past5
RB
2014
WR
Past5
WR
2014
TE
Past
TE
2014
DST
Past 5
DST
2014
Week 8
Opp.
i
-0.1-1.4-1.2-3.00.41.91.7-0.2-1.9-1.6Phi
i
0.60.44.98.51.23.1-1.4-2.61.31.0Det
i
-2.3-2.3-6.5-7.81.30.8-2.7-2.1-3.4-2.6@Cin
i
0.2-0.4-7.7-6.85.13.9-1.7-1.34.90.7@NYJ
i
4.02.47.15.48.03.1-2.0-1.0-0.2-1.0Sea
i
1.30.1-0.80.4-0.2-2.23.42.72.41.1@NE
i
0.8-0.57.61.6-9.3-6.74.93.90.7-2.7Bal
i
0.20.33.24.41.40.8-3.7-1.9-1.4-1.5Oak
i
-3.4-1.9-3.9-3.1-2.4-3.71.54.4-1.30.7Was
i
-1.7-0.3-0.4-3.6-1.0-0.30.1-0.1-5.2-6.5SD
i
-4.1-4.4-3.7-2.5-3.5-4.3-1.4-1.62.21.7@Atl
i
-2.1-1.7-1.12.20.30.70.2-0.7-2.9-1.4@NO
i
-1.0-0.40.51.15.33.6-4.4-2.7-0.90.2@Ten
i
-4.0-3.0-2.61.8-6.8-8.60.51.1-3.5-5.2@Pit
i
-1.00.4-3.71.30.60.3-2.00.35.86.9Mia
i
-7.1-3.2-2.9-2.2-5.8-2.4-1.6-1.0-4.1-2.1StL
i
-0.8-2.11.22.4-3.2-3.11.10.1-1.80.9@Jac
i
-0.5-2.95.23.3-1.0-2.1-0.5-2.23.45.2@TB
i
1.90.11.62.3-0.5-2.42.21.7-0.7-1.4Chi
i
1.93.20.51.45.24.4-2.1-1.0-2.7-1.7GB
i
-1.3-0.13.71.5-7.4-3.65.33.9-2.2-0.3BYE
i
2.12.91.2-0.6-5.9-1.43.31.62.31.6Buf
i
0.01.14.76.4-1.4-0.50.20.20.40.4@Cle
i
2.12.53.92.32.43.8-3.5-4.5-0.1-2.0@Ari
i
-0.2-0.51.81.7-3.2-3.81.42.50.1-0.8Ind
i
0.40.2-1.1-0.3-0.70.2-1.7-1.3-3.7-3.6@Den
i
-2.2-0.5-4.9-5.4-0.52.9-2.5-3.3-0.8-0.1BYE
i
-2.1-1.3-1.9-1.7-6.5-6.3-0.21.8-0.7-2.0@Car
i
3.34.4-5.0-5.26.35.7-0.30.32.84.3@KC
i
6.53.44.12.613.78.21.30.24.46.1Min
i
2.40.11.0-3.02.21.62.61.53.82.4Hou
i
6.75.5-2.2-5.36.14.41.51.21.21.6@Dal

<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>
</inline1>
</i>


 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Second-half fantasy stars[/h][h=3]LeSean McCoy among five slow-starters poised to blow up[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Field Yates[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

While the NFL playoffs are still more than two months away, your fantasy football postseason begins much sooner than that (Week 14 in many leagues). For some of you reading this, you're probably well on your way to the playoffs, thanks in part to wise drafting and some savvy waiver-wire claims. For others, they are looking to use the next handful of weeks to catapult into the playoff picture or secure a top seed in their leagues.
If you happen to be an owner of one of the following players whose production hasn't matched their draft status, don't worry; your patience in holding on to them will be rewarded.
Here's a film-based examination of five players who were slow out of the gates but are ready to help you win your league in the second half of the NFL's regular season.

i


[h=3]LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles[/h]<offer></offer>
The slump: Averaging 4.0 yards per carry or less in Weeks 1-5, including a three-game stretch in Weeks 3-5 in which he totaled nine fantasy points.
Reason for optimism: His Week 6 outing against the New York Giants -- a team that held McCoy to his lowest and third-lowest yards per rush outings in 2013 -- in which he totaled 149 yards on the ground and just a shade under seven yards per carry. What went right for Philadelphia and McCoy? Not to oversimplify the matter, but the offensive line -- which has improved in the past two games with the return of stud right tackle Lane Johnson -- got on its blocks more precisely and held them longer, while McCoy made defenders miss.
What also stood out was this: Defenses -- as they did in 2013 -- are going to challenge the Eagles at or near the line of scrimmage. On the first drive of the game against New York, McCoy had three runs of at least 12 yards in which the Giants ushered out a single-high safety look and congested the box. That's normally an invitation for an offense to throw the ball, but Philly is a dedicated running team. The upside to running against a heavy box is that if the back can penetrate through the line of scrimmage, there's much more space to operate at the second and third levels. Don't be surprised to see McCoy rack up 10-plus yard runs and huge fantasy points going forward.

i


[h=3]Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers[/h]The slump: Eighteen or fewer points in five of the six games that he has played this season, including 14 in Week 7.
Reason for optimism: Let's face it, Week 7 wasn't the type of production for which Newton owners were hopeful, especially after his breakout game in Week 6 during which he racked up 33 fantasy points. Here's the critical factor we saw in Week 6: Designed runs. Newton had 17 total rushes during that game (he has 21 combined rushes in the other five contests in which he's played), including 10 read-option runs and three other designed runs (a 12-yard score came on one of those).
Newton rushed seven times in Week 7 against the Green Bay Packers, but game flow is an important aspect to keep in mind for running quarterbacks. The Panthers were down 21-0 after the first quarter, limiting Newton's ability to execute designed runs because of the team's need to go to work through the air. Carolina won't fall behind like that often -- if again -- this season, meaning Newton's rushes should be more consistent. For anyone who has owned Newton in previous seasons, they know his elite value is rooted in his running. The Panthers didn't unleash Newton on the ground up until Week 6, but what we saw that week -- a powerful, difficult-to-tackle quarterback -- gives us reason to believe he'll remain a must-start every week going forward.

i


[h=3]Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots[/h]The slump: A mere 35 fantasy points in his first four games combined.
Reason for optimism: No, Tom Brady is not over the hill at age 37. He's posted nine touchdowns and zero interceptions in his past three games, averaging over 300 yards passing per contest during that stretch. So what's gotten into Brady? Or, perhaps, gotten back into Brady? The Patriots have leaned more heavily on their two-tight end sets in recent weeks, allowing Brady to operate in the middle of the field. When the Patriots use their two tight end sets, it forces a defense into a bind: Play with base personnel and risk covering Rob Gronkowski with a linebacker, or go light with a nickel group and compromise the run defense.
The Patriots have successfully leaned on play-action passing, opening up wide windows for Brady to throw up the seam, while he's also benefited from big-play scores in recent weeks. His longest touchdown pass from Weeks 1-3 was just nine yards. He has three touchdowns of at least 43 yards in the past two games. And while out-of-pocket mobility isn't Brady's calling card, he has terrific in-pocket awareness and escape-ability. He was able to elude pressure on his final touchdown pass of Week 7, connecting with Danny Amendola for a 19-yard score. The Patriots' offense is soaring, and that won't change anytime soon. Brady is right back among the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks.

i


[h=3]Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens[/h]The slump: Just 22 fantasy points and 11 catches total in his first five games
Reason for optimism: There are those who can't seem to escape the perception of Smith as simply a deep-speed vertical threat, but he's a terrific all-around wideout. That being said, there's no more efficient way to win in fantasy than big-play touchdowns, and Smith had a 39-yard score in Week 7, his third touchdown in two games.
The film shows that he could've had substantially more points, as it turns out, as he drew a pass-interference penalty on a near-touchdown on a vertical shot down the field, was the intended target on a long-range passing attempt that was picked off at the goal line and was tripped up just inches short of another touchdown on a 20-yard catch. The takeaway: Smith's value simultaneously stems from his big-play potential and the fact that he can still be a factor when used on underneath or intermediate passing routes. He's among my top 20 wide receivers for the remainder of this season.

i


[h=3]Charles Clay, TE, Miami Dolphins[/h]The slump: 13 fantasy points total in his first five games; first touchdown came in Week 7.
Reason for optimism: While Clay doesn't carry the same profile as the four previously mentioned players, he's someone I've believed in and would have comfortably used as a weekly tight end starter heading into this season. Tight end is a position where a savvy owner can find replacements with relative ease, so it's possible that those who did draft Clay (which wasn't a significant total, as he's still owned in just 12.5 percent of leagues) moved on.
For those who stuck with Clay, he's a usable starting tight end going forward. He hauled in four passes and a touchdown in Week 7, and what continues to intrigue me about Clay is that he can be -- and is -- used all over the formation. He caught a pair of passes as an end-of-the-line tight end, one from the slot and one aligned a yard off the line of scrimmage adjacent to the left tackle. Moreover, quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been red-hot as of late, completing more than 72 percent of his passes during his past three games. The Dolphins are able to manufacture space for Clay to run through by spreading things out, and presuming Tannehill stays hot, Clay has the athletic tools to be an important factor for Miami going forward.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Fantasy notes on all Week 8 teams[/h][h=3]Our NFL reporters offer Week 8 fantasy intel from inside each locker room[/h]
By NFL Nation Reporters | ESPN Insider

ESPN Insider has planted spies in every NFL locker room -- OK, so they're our 32 NFL Nation team reporters -- in order to provide fantasy owners with inside intel to help you win your league. We call it Insider Trading, a collection of fantasy lineup advice pulled straight from the locker rooms and practice fields of every team.
Our Week 8 edition will help owners set their lineups in all formats by bringing you key Insider info, including why Randall Cobb may outperform Jordy Nelson, why the Jags may not giveDenard Robinson a workhorse role, and why you shouldn't buy the hype on Zac Stacy. Plus, a look at under-the-radar TE prospects like Jordan Reed and Zach Ertz.
Check back every week for info that will help you set your lineups. In the meantime, here is our NFL Nation reporters' fantasy advice, covering every team. Remember: this excludes teams on a bye.

[h=3]NFC West[/h]
sea.gif

Seattle Seahawks: Baldwin is here to stay
If you haven't been starting receiver Doug Baldwin, do it now. With the move to jettison Percy Harvin, the Seahawks got back to basics last week and did what they do best: throwing to Baldwin on slants and crossing routes. And if you want to take a flier in a deeper league, rookie Paul Richardson is about to become a much larger part of the offense. It's only a matter of time until he beats someone deep. -- Terry Blount

stl.gif

St. Louis Rams: Don't believe the hype on Stacy<offer>
Rams coach Jeff Fisher said earlier this week the Rams will continue to work running backs Zac Stacy, Benny Cunningham and Tre Mason in a timeshare despite Mason getting 18 carries last week against Seattle. Fisher even went so far as to say Stacy could get 25 carries this week after he only played one snap last week. Well, don't buy into that. If you own Stacy, proceed with extreme caution. Mason has impressed the staff with his running ability, and Cunningham has scored three times in as many weeks and is the team's best back when it comes to blitz pickup. -- Nick Wagoner</offer>

ari.gif

Arizona Cardinals: Look for Ellington to keep rolling
Andre Ellington's left foot has continued to progress, and he stopped wearing a walking boot and took part in a Wednesday practice for the first time in weeks. A rib injury won't slow Ellington, who showed he can handle 30 touches in a game last week running and catching. Still, he hasn't been scoring for the Cardinals, but maybe that will change Sunday in a plus matchup against Philly. -- Josh Weinfuss


[h=3]NFC East[/h]
dal.gif

Dallas Cowboys: Williams could bust loose against Washington
Terrance Williams leads the Cowboys with six touchdown catches, but his ability to get into the end zone has had more to do with his work when things break down than it does extra attention to Dez Bryant. Williams has been targeted more than four times in a game just three times this season, leading to his 19 total catches for 338 yards. The Redskins don't have DeAngelo Hall to shadow Bryant, so they will have to give extra help to make sure Bryant does not dominate. That should leave Williams, who had six catches for 111 yards and a touchdown in two games against the Redskins last year, with one-on-one coverage on the back side. Tony Romo said he has full trust in Williams, and this is a week he could really show it all the time and not just when things break down. He's a promising salary-cap or WR3 play this week. -- Todd Archer

was.gif

Washington Redskins: Don't sleep on TE Reed
Tight end Jordan Reed has caught 14 passes for 150 yards since returning from a hamstring injury. The Redskins expect more from him this week against Dallas. While the goal for the Redskins is to get the running game going, the second key is converting on third downs and in the red zone. Those are two areas in which Reed excels. One Redskins player said, "Jordan's a mismatch in any situation, and he's a good matchup against them." -- John Keim

phi.gif

Philadelphia Eagles: This could be TE Ertz's week
It could be a big week for tight end Zach Ertz. He has been frustrated because his so-so run blocking keeps him off the field at times, and he's compensated by making big plays in the passing game. With their big corners, the Cardinals could make life tough forJeremy Maclin and Riley Cooper. Ertz works the middle of the field, where the Cards are weakest. Ertz caught two touchdown passes against Arizona last season. -- Phil Sheridan


[h=3]NFC North[/h]
gnb.gif

Green Bay Packers: Cobb may be stronger play than Nelson
For only the second time this season, Randall Cobb was targeted more often than Jordy Nelson in last Sunday's game against the Carolina Panthers. That could become a trend. Coach Mike McCarthy said this week that he expects the New Orleans Saints to be even more aggressive this Sunday in trying to take Nelson out of the game, which could mean another performance like Cobb had last week, when he caught six passes for a season-high 121 yards and a touchdown. -- Rob Demovsky

chi.gif

Chicago Bears: Cutler's struggles should lead to more Forte
Given Jay Cutler's continued struggles with turnovers, look for the Bears to find a way to take the ball out of the quarterback's hands and feed running back Matt Forte, who faces a struggling New England run defense this week. In the first half of the Bears' loss to Miami last week, coach Marc Trestman called several plays that featured run-pass options, yet the Bears actually ran the ball just twice. In the second half, Trestman took away Cutler's ability to check out of runs. Look for more of the same in this game and more opportunities for Forte. It may be worth ponying up for Forte as a high-end play in salary-cap leagues this week. -- Michael C. Wright

det.gif

Detroit Lions: Tate settling in as reliable play
Even with Calvin Johnson progressing toward a potential return Sunday against theAtlanta Falcons, wide receiver Golden Tate remains a strong play for almost everyone as a borderline No. 1 receiver. Tate is third in the NFL in receptions (48) and sixth in receiving yards (649). His numbers may dip a little if Johnson plays, but his rapport with Matthew Stafford has turned him into one of the more reliable fantasy options on the Lions. -- Michael Rothstein

min.gif

Minnesota Vikings: McKinnon should continue in lead role
Jerick McKinnon carried 19 times for 103 yards in the Vikings' loss to the Bills and gained 84 of those yards between the tackles, according to ESPN Stats & Information. "He's grown so much in the last two months, and he's going to continue to get better," fullback Jerome Felton said. "There was an adjustment period playing quarterback in college and playing running back in the NFL, but he continues to work hard, he prepares well, and he's getting a lot better." If McKinnon can consistently withstand a pounding between the tackles, it seems even more likely he'll be the Vikings' featured back until (or unless) Adrian Petersoncomes back. -- Ben Goessling


[h=3]NFC South[/h]
car.gif

Carolina Panthers: Olsen in store for another strong performance
Greg Olsen may be as close to a sure thing in fantasy as there is on the Panthers. He leads all NFL tight ends with 493 receiving yards and has five touchdowns. He's coming off a regular-season career-best 105 receiving yards on eight catches. He's going against a Seattle defense that ranks 26th in the league against tight ends, allowing a 73.7 completion percentage and eight touchdowns. Only two teams have allowed more fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends than Seattle (11.5 PPG). Don't hesitate to use him in salary-cap games in Week 8. -- David Newton

nor.gif

New Orleans Saints: Consider Cadet in PPR leagues
Mark Ingram will obviously be a good fantasy play this week if both Pierre Thomas andKhiry Robinson are out or limited -- especially since the Packers' run defense has been their only flaw this season. Another sneaky option in deeper PPR leagues is Saints running back Travaris Cadet. If Thomas is out, Cadet should catch some passes -- especially if the Saints wind up needing to use their hurry-up nickel offense to match points with Green Bay. Last week with Thomas limited, Cadet caught six passes for 51 yards. And even when Thomas was healthy in Week 4, Cadet caught six passes for 59 yards at Dallas because he was part of the no-huddle, hurry-up package. -- Mike Triplett

atl.gif

Atlanta Falcons: Could be a rough game for Julio
Julio Jones would be a safe bet in fantasy almost every week, but maybe not this time around. Jones put it on himself Wednesday to help turn the struggling offense around, but it's not totally in his hands. Quarterback Matt Ryan, playing behind a makeshift offensive line, likely won't get a chance to take deep shots down the field to Jones because the Lions pressure the quarterback (21 sacks) and boast the league's second-best third-down defense (30.4 percent conversion rate). Jones can't be his dynamic self if Ryan doesn't have time to deliver him the ball. Look elsewhere in formats that use a salary cap. -- Vaughn McClure

tam.gif

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rainey may push Martin aside
The Bucs are making a lot of changes coming out of the bye after a 1-5 start, so don't be surprised if they start giving more carries to Bobby Rainey and fewer to Doug Martin. Although Martin has remained the starter, Rainey has outproduced him, rushing for 262 yards to Martin's 139. Rainey also has 16 catches, so he is your best bet if you're looking for a running back from the Bucs' backfield. -- Pat Yasinskas


[h=3]AFC West[/h]
den.gif

Denver Broncos: Hillman could keep the carries
The Broncos have waited since they made Ronnie Hillman a third-round pick in the 2012 draft to see the guy they believed could consistently provide the "splash'' plays they'd hoped for and after his last three starts since Montee Ball's injury, it's safe to say Hillman has everyone's attention. He has two 100-yard games and is averaging 4.9 yards per carry in those three starts. Hillman's been explosive, and has shown quickness to the hole on runs in between the tackles to go with speed to the corner. He's also finishing runs with more power than many expect. In short, even when Ball returns to the lineup, Hillman will continue to get plenty of work, far more than he was before Ball was injured.-- Jeff Legwold

kan.gif

Kansas City Chiefs: Bowe can't be relied upon
The Chiefs made a better effort to get the ball to receiver Dwayne Bowe in last week's game, and he responded with his best effort of the season (five catches, 84 yards). That doesn't necessarily mean they will continue to feature Bowe. I've been told the Chiefs are happy with how their passing game has been operating, with a different player leading them in targets in each of their six games. That means Bowe will be a hit-or-miss prospect week to week. -- Adam Teicher

oak.gif

Oakland Raiders: MJD remains a non-factor
Running back Maurice Jones-Drew has gone from the Raiders' Week 1 starting tailback to an afterthought. He suffered a hand injury in the opener and missed the next two games. He now is barely a factor in Oakland's run game as the Raiders have turned back to Darren McFadden. Jones-Drew had just three carries for 6 yards in Week 7, even though coach Tony Sparano said he hasn't forgotten him. McFadden hasn't been lights-out, either, but Jones-Drew still isn't a factor. It's safe to drop him in fantasy and move on. -- Bill Williamson

sdg.gif

San Diego Chargers: Oliver's workload will drop
After rushing for at least 100 yards in his first two starts, Branden Oliver has been tamed in his last two games. Oliver ran for just 36 yards on 13 carries in Thursday's loss at Denver, including a meaningless 23-yard run on the final play of the game. WithRyan Mathews (knee) and Donald Brown expected back in the lineup sooner rather than later, Oliver likely is headed back to a more complementary role in San Diego's running back rotation. -- Eric Williams


[h=3]AFC East[/h]
buf.gif

Buffalo Bills: Watkins to benefit from backfield injuries
While it remains to be seen how the Bills will split carries between Anthony Dixon andBryce Brown, the absence of Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller in the passing game shouldn't be overlooked. Receiver Sammy Watkins noted how the Bills will miss their abilities to "match up against linebackers," a burden that could now fall to the Bills' tight ends and receivers. Jackson had 42 receptions through seven games, and we can expect Kyle Orton to now lean more on his receivers, including Watkins, to make up the difference against the Jets. -- Mike Rodak

mia.gif

Miami Dolphins: Clay's value is on the rise
Tight end Charles Clay is finally gaining traction in the Dolphins' new offense under first-year coordinator Bill Lazor. Clay, who was off to a slow start, had his best game of the season with four receptions for 58 yards and a touchdown last week against the Bears. There are two reasons Clay is increasingly becoming a better play in fantasy. First, Clay has played all season through a knee injury and is feeling better. Second, Lazor explained this week that the more time he spends with Clay, the more he is getting to know his skills. Lazor is expected to go to Clay more in the second half of the season. He's available in 86 percent of ESPN leagues and is worth adding now. -- James Walker

nwe.gif

New England Patriots: Gray is worth adding off waivers
Head coach Bill Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels want to see whatJonas Gray can do at running back now that Stevan Ridley is out for the season. Gray, at 230 pounds, made a strong impression on the coaching staff in training camp and almost earned a roster spot before making it through to the practice squad. Gray now projects as the Patriots' top "big back." He was expected to play more than he did last week in his debut, but the Patriots' limited time of possession made for fewer opportunities than expected. That makes him worth adding if you need RB help on your roster. -- Mike Reiss

nyj.gif

New York Jets: Limited role for Harvin this week
Despite only a few practices, new wide receiver Percy Harvin should play at least 20 to 30 snaps in Week 8. It wouldn't be a surprise if he gets six to eight touches in a variety of ways -- handoffs, bubble screens, etc. The Jets will play him more than they're letting on. It's not a good week to play Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson, though, as the Bills have yet to allow a rushing touchdown. -- Rich Cimini


[h=3]AFC North[/h]
bal.gif

Baltimore Ravens: Forsett should get lots of work
Expect running back Justin Forsett to get plenty of carries against the Bengals. Offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak ran the ball an average of 33 times in his past five meetings with the Bengals when he was the head coach of the Houston Texans. The only fantasy concern is backup Bernard Pierce getting most of the carries inside the 5-yard line, which will reduce Forsett's opportunities for touchdowns. -- Jamison Hensley

cle.gif

Cleveland Browns: Look for Tate, Crowell to rebound this week
Mike Pettine said it simply this week: "We know we have to get back to our formula on offense." Which means do what the Browns did not do last Sunday in Jacksonville, and that's run the ball. While some teams want to run the ball, others need to run it to make their offense effective, such as the Browns -- which sets up Ben Tate and Isaiah Crowell to get their share of carries against Oakland. Not only do the Browns need to run, but they are facing a defense that gives up 145 yards per game on the ground. Tate and Crowell will be the guys to re-establish the formula. They will get their touches, making Tate a potentially high-end play and Crowell worth streaming. -- Pat McManamon

cin.gif

Cincinnati Bengals: Gio should get a bump in PPR leagues
It was smart to bench all Bengals offensive players ahead of last week's ugly 27-0 loss at Indianapolis. This week, though, running back Giovani Bernard could be a good fantasy starter because of his ability to catch passes. When the Bengals and Ravens met in Week 1, Bernard was one of Cincinnati's leading receivers, catching six passes for 62 yards. He also was the Bengals' most targeted pass-catcher, drawing 10 passes from Andy Dalton. After the Bengals had several screens get blown up by the Colts last weekend, look for them to try to get that part of their game going this week, and look for Bernard to benefit from it in fantasy terms, especially in PPR leagues. -- Coley Harvey

pit.gif

Pittsburgh Steelers: Rookie Bryant is on the come
Wide receiver Martavis Bryant caught two passes for 40 yards and a touchdown in his NFL debut Monday night. The fourth-round pick would have finished with three catches for 94 yards and a pair of touchdowns had quarterback Ben Roethlisberger not overthrown him on a fly pattern early in the game. Bryant's blend of size (6-foot-4, 212 pounds) and speed bodes well for an expanded role as the season progresses. And Bryant could emerge as Roethlisberger's favorite target in the red zone, which makes him an attractive pickup for fantasy owners who need help at wide receiver because of injuries and bye weeks. -- Scott Brown


[h=3]AFC South[/h]
hou.gif

Houston Texans: Texans should look to Johnson more
The Texans didn't get the ball to Andre Johnson much until the fourth quarter against the Steelers, and Texans coach Bill O'Brien said Johnson was open. "We just have to make the right reads," said O'Brien. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick also said this week he knows the Texans have to get the ball to Johnson, who has scored in three of his past four games against the Titans. The added emphasis on getting the ball to him could maintain that trend, making for an upside Week 8 fantasy play. -- Tania Ganguli

ind.gif

Indianapolis Colts: Consider Nicks if Wayne sits
Hakeem Nicks' receiving numbers this season -- 17 total receptions for 141 yards -- don't scream fantasy success, but he could finally have a bigger role in the offense this week, as Reggie Wayne's status against Pittsburgh is in question because of an elbow injury. Nicks will slide into the No. 2 role if Wayne doesn't play. Coach Chuck Pagano said Nicks, a former back-to-back 1,000-yard receiver, knows his stuff and will be ready, no matter when his number is called. -- Mike Wells

jac.gif

Jacksonville Jaguars: Shoelace may not handle workhorse load
Denard Robinson has established himself as the Jaguars' No. 1 running back after his 127-yard performance Sunday against Cleveland. However, Jaguars offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch said he's not yet sure how the carries will be split with the return of Toby Gerhart (foot). He said he'll ride the hot hand, but one source inside the team said the coaches still aren't sure if Robinson is capable of handling a heavy workload each week. It may be wise to wait before inserting Robinson into your lineups. -- Mike DiRocco

ten.gif

Tennessee Titans: QB change to benefit Hunter
Zach Mettenberger has a better arm and greater pocket presence than Jake Locker orCharlie Whitehurst. The rookie quarterback's presence in the lineup should have a positive bearing on the team's top deep threat, Justin Hunter. There will be shots down the field to Hunter, who's averaging 20 yards per catch and playing the most snaps among Titans receivers, making him an intriguing play in deeper leagues this week. -- Paul Kuharsky
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Few benefit from Big Ben's huge day[/h][h=3]Roethlisberger approaches record, but started in just 10 percent of leagues[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Tristan H. Cockcroft[/FONT] | ESPN.com

Thirty-two passing yards. Five fantasy points.
Those represent the amounts by which Ben Roethlisberger fell short of history. His 522 passing yards came that close to Norm Van Brocklin's single-game record of 554. In NFL history, only Van Brocklin, Warren Moon (527, Week 15 of 1990) and Matt Schaub (527, Week 11 of 2012) threw for more yards in a game than Roethlisberger.
Roethlisberger's 44 fantasy points, meanwhile, came that close to Michael Vick's since-1960 standard for a quarterback of 49. Unfortunately, he was started in only 10.1 percent of ESPN leagues, leaving many owners thinking about what could've been. Roethlisberger is only the 16th NFL quarterback to reach the 40-fantasy-point plateau during that time frame, and only six of those 16 managed to exceed Roethlisberger's total on Sunday:
Player<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Year</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Wk</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Team</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Opp</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Pass
YDS</center>
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Pass
TD</center>
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Int</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Rush
YDS</center>
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Rush
TD</center>
Michael Vick201010PhiWsh4933340802
Y.A. Tittle19627NYGWsh485057010
Mark Rypien199111WshAtl474426041
Peyton Manning20131DenBal4646270-20
Aaron Rodgers20114GBDen4540841362
Nick Foles20139PhiOak4540670100
Joe Kapp19692MinBal4444971140
Ben Roethlisberger20148PitInd4452260-10
Randall Cunningham19909PhiNE43240401241
Eric Hipple19817DetChi4233640132
Joe Namath19722NYJBal414966110
Steve Young19987SFInd4133120602
Daunte Culpepper200215MinNO4131220732
Jeff Garcia200314SFAri4125240322
Bill Kenney198313KCSea403114072
Tony Romo20135DalDen405065170

<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>


Interestingly, Van Brocklin becomes an 17th if we include games pre-1960: His performance -- the upper-echelon games much more easily verifiable -- was worth an identical-to-Roethlisberger's 44 fantasy points. They did get there different ways, however, as Van Brocklin passed for five scores and two interceptions while rushing for a touchdown, while Roethlisberger did it with six passing touchdowns and no picks.
In fact, it's only the 12th time since 1960 that an NFL quarterback threw at least six more touchdowns than he had interceptions in a game; those 12 have been accomplished by 9 different quarterbacks, led by Peyton Manning's three occurrences (6-0, Week 4 of 2003; 6-0, Week 12 of 2004; 7-1, Week 1 of 2013).
Most remarkable is the team Roethlisberger did it against, the Indianapolis Colts, who entering Week 8 had afforded opposing quarterbacks the second-fewest fantasy points per game (12.6). Roethlisberger's 44 fantasy points, in fact, were 11 more than the Colts had allowed to all quarterbacks in their past four games combined.
[h=3]A contrast in scoring[/h]Roethlisberger's outburst capped an exciting-for-fantasy Colts-Pittsburgh Steelers matchup, one in which 247 total fantasy points were scored, including the team defense/special teams units. That was by far the most in any of the 14 Week 8 games already in the books -- there's one left to play on Monday night -- with 39 more than were scored in the Chicago Bears-New England Patriots contest.
Those two games, incidentally, now represent the two highest-scoring fantasy affairs of 2014. When was the last time we saw 247 total fantasy points scored in a single game? Week 9 of 2013, when the Steelers were again involved ... in a game that was, like today's Bears-Pats affair, also played in New England. If you owned Tom Brady last season, you might remember that one as the "one day Brady came to play," as he managed a season-best 33 fantasy points, after having scored 5, 13, 7 and 6 the previous four weeks.
When was the last time we saw more total fantasy points scored than that? That'd be Week 5 of 2013, when the Denver Broncos and Dallas Cowboys tangled in a 51-48 affair that saw Tony Romo score 40, Peyton Manning score 36, and 11 other offensive players score in double digits and the two teams combined for 260.
Conversely, Week 8 also featured one of the lowest-scoring games of 2014, as the Seattle Seahawks-Carolina Panthers game had no player -- either individual or the team defense/special teams -- score in excess of 12 fantasy points. That represents the worst "game-leading" score of any contest all year; you'd have to go back to Week 2 of the 2013 season to find a game with a leading score of 12: That was Joe Flacco's fantasy point total in the Cleveland Browns-Baltimore Ravens game that week.
The Seahawks-Panthers game didn't set a new standard for lowest-scoring game overall in 2014, however. Three games have had fewer total fantasy points. Here are the "bottom five" this season:
Oakland Raiders at New England Patriots, Week 3, 101 FPTS: This was the 16-9 game that featured 538 total yards, six field goals and 10 punts.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, Week 3, 104 FPTS: Wait, what? Packers-Lions was low-scoring? Believe it: Aaron Rodgers scored just 10 fantasy points, Matthew Stafford just three, but at least the Lions' D/ST managed a game-best 17.
• Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings, Week 6. 106 FPTS: In another stifling performance by the Lions' D/ST (20 FPTS), Teddy Bridgewater committed three interceptions while Stafford had 11 fantasy points working without the injured Calvin Johnson.
• Seahawks at Panthers, Week 8, 109 FPTS.
• Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 5, 110 FPTS: A Roethlisberger stinker by comparison (12 FPTS), but the Steelers' D/ST became yet another of the many to dominate the woeful Jaguars offense, scoring 16 points.

[h=3]Miscellany[/h]• A season-best six players have reached the 30-point fantasy plateau -- that is, with one more game to play on Monday night -- the most in any single week so far in 2014. Before this, there had been only 10 performances all year worth 30 or more fantasy points, two of them accomplished by Russell Wilson (36 in Week 7, 34 in Week 5). You'd have to go all the way back to Week 17 of the 2011 season to find as many as six 30-point fantasy scorers (exactly six then, too). Four of those six in that week happened in the Detroit Lions-Green Bay Packers game, a 45-41 Packers victory, also known to veteran fantasy owners as the "Matt Flynn Game": Flynn had 39, Stafford had 38, Jordy Nelson 34 and Calvin Johnson 30.
That got us thinking, seeing as the six players who scored 30-plus this week did it in five different games: When was the last time that there was at least one 30-plus fantasy scorer in at least five different games in one week? That'd be Week 1 of the 2004 season, when Shaun Alexander (34), Priest Holmes (33), Curtis Martin (31), Quentin Griffin (31), Daunte Culpepper (31) and Donovan McNabb (30) all did it, with Holmes and Griffin the only ones who did it in the same game.

• Oh, what could've been, had onlySammy Watkins not prematurely celebrated a potential touchdown early on Sunday. Yes, yes, there's the fallacy of the predetermined outcome with which to deal, but just for fun, let's give Watkins that touchdown and the resulting 28-point fantasy score he'd have had with it. Had that happened, he'd have become only the sixth NFL rookie wide receiver -- this means, excluding AFL players -- to score 50 or more fantasy points in a two-game span. The others:

Isaac Curtis, 1973 Bengals (55, Weeks 13-14)
Jerry Butler, 1979 Bills (51 in Weeks 3-4, 54 in Weeks 4-5)
Joey Galloway, 1995 Seahawks (52, Weeks 11-12)
Eddie Kennison, 1996 Rams (52, Weeks 15-16)
Randy Moss, 1998 Vikings (57, Weeks 12-13, 64, Weeks 13-14)

Sadly, Watkins will just have to settle for an alternate, yet still exclusive, club: He's only the seventh NFL rookie wide receiver to manage 20-plus fantasy points in consecutive games since 1960. Here are the previous six:
Bill Brooks, 1986 Colts, Weeks 11-12 (23 and 22)
Horace Copeland, 1993 Buccaneers, Weeks 8-9 (23 ands 22)
Isaac Curtis, 1973 Bengals, Weeks 13-14 (29 and 26)
John Jefferson, 1978 Chargers, Weeks 14-16 (21, 20 and 26)
Hassan Jones, 1986 Vikings, Weeks 3-4 (27 and 22)
Randy Moss, 1998 Vikings, Weeks 12-14 (21, 36 and 28)

• With Geno Smith's starting job now in question for the New York Jets, let's take a look at his miserable, minus-6 fantasy day output in Week 8. It was the worst individual day by a quarterback since John Skelton's minus-8 in Week 14 of 2012 -- that was the Arizona Cardinals' 58-0 drubbing by the Seattle Seahawks that resulted in a 39-point fantasy day for the Seattle D/ST -- and it's the second consecutive game of Smith's "in the red" against the Bills, as he had a minus-4 against them in Week 11 of 2013 as well.

With this game, Smith now has four games with negative fantasy point totals in his brief career. Only one player since 1990 has more: Ryan Leaf, who had five of them in a four-year career from 1998-2001.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Four Downs: Patriots offense rollin' now
in.gif
[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Eric Karabell[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

The [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]New England Patriots[/FONT] entered October a complete mess but finish it with the hottest fantasy offense this side of Denver. Coach Bill Belichick's bunch was once 2-2, and for fantasy purposes, quarterback Tom Brady had played himself out of relevance after a four-point effort in a blowout loss against the Kansas City Chiefs on "Monday Night Football." They also didn't have much of a running game, and other than wide receiver Julian Edelman and tight end Rob Gronkowski -- both worth owning/activating but hardly carrying fantasy owners -- there really wasn't much to optimistically watch.

Well, that has clearly changed. On Sunday, the Patriots exploded for 51 points in an outstanding romp over the beleaguered Chicago Bears, the Pats' fourth consecutive win. Again, for fantasy purposes, there's quite a bit to like, including the rejuvenated quarterback many had given up on. Here are my "updated" thoughts on Brady and his many weapons entering a significant Week 9 home game with Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.

i

• Brady scored a total of 35 standard fantasy points in the first four games. His offensive line couldn't give him sufficient time to throw, ruining any attempt for an effective deep passing game. It was understandable for fantasy owners to move on. The mistake many analysts -- I'm in that group, of course -- made was presuming the line couldn't quickly improve and stabilize against lesser competition. It has. Brady wasn't sacked Sunday and was barely touched. He looks considerably stronger and more accurate now, but it's not simply better protection. It's also better weapons. Gronkowski, most notably, looks a lot healthier. There's a running game and a deep threat for defenses to deal with. Brady needed help around him; he has scored 20 or more fantasy points in four consecutive games, topping 30 points twice. He must be given consideration as a top-five quarterback -- amazing how quickly things change! -- for Week 9 and moving forward.

i

• Gronkowski's 32-point fantasy performance Sunday broke his personal best, a 28-point effort late in the 2011 season. He entered the week fifth among tight ends in standard scoring, but his targets had increased in October in conjunction with him rounding physically into better form. In fact, Gronkowski has as many receptions in the past four games as he had targets in the first four. On Sunday, the Bears, a team that had generally held opposing tight ends in check, couldn't cover him in the red zone, over the middle or really anywhere. Gronkowski was forced to leave early due to dehydration, but that doesn't figure to be an issue moving forward. With the Broncos' Julius Thomas having been held in check the past few weeks and the New Orleans Saints' Jimmy Graham still dealing with a shoulder injury, it's reasonable to view Gronkowski as tops again at his position, though there remain no guarantees about long-term health. By the way, I don't think fellow tight end Tim Wright, who went from nary a target a week earlier to 12 fantasy points Sunday, is remotely close to a must-own for standard formats.

i

• Edelman caught one pass and dropped two others among four targets Sunday, frustrating the 70 percent of ESPN league owners who had him active. Edelman, one of five players to catch 100 passes last season, started the season quickly as Brady's main weapon, but there was little vertical threat. Now that Brady has more time to get the ball downfield, Edelman has been less effective and busy, reaching as many as five fantasy points in one of the past five games. Keep Edelman owned, more so in PPR formats, but don't expect his early-September production to be duplicated.

i

• Meanwhile, it's time to pay a lot more attention to Pats receiver and formerCarolina Panthers veteran Brandon LaFell, as he caught all 11 of his targets for 124 yards and a touchdown. LaFell has become the team's vertical threat, entering the week averaging 17.7 yards per reception, a top-10 figure in the league, and he makes things happen after the catch. While some will proclaim LaFell a better option the rest of the season than Edelman, the truth is neither is a safe top-30 option at all, making Brady's wide receivers look a bit like what Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints has to work with for fantasy. Each boasts a superstar tight end, a running back who catches passes and inconsistent wide receivers.

i

• As for that running game, I've let others recommend Shane Vereen because I just didn't believe Belichick wanted him getting too many rushing attempts, which was proven Sunday. The Stevan Ridley injury created opportunity that Vereen exploited in Week 7 via the receiving game (the New York Jets didn't cover him, basically), but Vereen had a quiet game Sunday, rushing five times and catching only three passes. I don't think he's a top-20 running back. He doesn't catch that many passes. During the week, I speculated on the future of the relatively unknown Jonas Gray, and Sunday he received 17 carries and turned them into 86 yards. He's not a game-breaker, but he's tough and wide, and Belichick seems to trust him, and that's enough to make Gray -- on the practice squad two weeks ago! -- worth owning right away as an occasional flex option with RB2 upside.

Second down: Percy Harvin made his Jets debut in a blowout loss to the Buffalo Bills and couldn't complain about touches, as he saw nine targets (catching three for 22 yards), received four rushing attempts (28 yards) and did some nice work on his six kick returns. Harvin wanted more chances lining up outside as opposed to the slot, but he looked out of place since there's no quarterback on this team to appease him. Add it up and it's still a disappointing and largely irrelevant four fantasy points, tying for Harvin's third-best performance of an underachieving season. Is there upside? Of course, and perhaps a tad more if the Jets stick with backup quarterback Michael Vick. Starter Geno Smith was brutal, registering negative-six fantasy points to those foolish enough to believe. Vick turned the ball over as well but moved the offense at times. I don't view Harvin as a top-30 wide receiver regardless of quarterback (and you shouldn't be playing a Jets QB!), but the early returns on the trade show his new team at least tried to keep him busy. Hey, there was good news for the 1-7 Jets: Chris Ivory scored two touchdowns! The Bills hadn't allowed a touchdown to a running back all season

Third down: Surely a better option than Harvin is Bills rookie Sammy Watkins, who caught three passes for 157 yards and a touchdown. Then again, the story isn't about what Watkins did, but the points he should have attained. A premature celebration on what should have been an 89-yard touchdown turned into merely an 84-yard play, with no score. Many fantasy owners will lose their matchup because the showboating Watkins didn't secure the touchdown. In the big picture, let's note he's becoming a top-20 wide receiver. He has 279 receiving yards over two weeks, with four, er, three, touchdowns, and even withKyle Orton as the quarterback, there's tremendous upside. Hey, rookies make mistakes. Some learn from them. Watkins figures to learn.

As for the team's running game, as expected, Anthony Dixon saw most of the work with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller out, but also, as expected, he didn't look so good, gaining 44 yards on 22 carries. Bryce Brown gained 15 yards on seven chances. The Bills are on bye in Week 9, but Brown could see a greater role in Week 10. Personally, I'd rather own Jackson. He could return sooner than expected from his groin injury.

Fourth down: Finally, the top performance of the week -- and one of the best ever for a quarterback! -- entering the Packers-Saints Sunday night game came from an unlikely source, as Pittsburgh Steelers veteran Ben Roethlisberger registered the second 500-yard passing outing of his career. His 522 yards and six touchdowns gave him a 2014-best 44 standard points, double his prior season best. Don't feel bad if Roethlisberger was on your bench, as you weren't alone: The No. 17 quarterback in ESPN average live drafts began the week 16th in quarterback scoring, active in only 10 percent of ESPN leagues. Plus, theIndianapolis Colts entered play the second-toughest defense for opposing quarterbacks to achieve fantasy points against! In other words, this is football, and strange things occur on occasion.

Don't expect Roethlisberger, who last finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in 2009, to do this again. However, it's worth noting that rookie wide receiver Martavis Bryant caught 83 yards worth of passes and two touchdowns, and he's becoming an interesting fantasy pickup. Sophomore Markus Wheaton, who scored his first touchdown Sunday, is several inches shorter than Bryant and hardly the red zone target. It's unlikely a second Steelers wide receiver can flourish on a run-first team that devotes so many targets to the awesome Antonio Brown, but if choosing depth, add Bryant over Wheaton at this point as a potential WR4.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Free-agent finds for Week 9[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Christopher Harris[/FONT] | ESPN.com

Waiver-wire news changes fast and furiously throughout the week as injuries and depth-chart shenanigans overtake us. So be sure to follow me on Twitter by clicking on the link next to my headshot at the bottom of the column and I'll keep you updated as news warrants. Let's get to the best fantasy roster additions heading into Week 9:
Standard ESPN league finds
Jonas Gray, RB, New England Patriots (owned in 2.6 percent of ESPN leagues): His name is Jonas. From the same people who brought you Stevan Ridley, here's Gray, who's almost the same player hopefully minus the fumbling. All last week I tried to warn you that Shane Vereen -- who produced huge numbers in a Week 7 Thursday night game -- wasn't bulletproof, and here we go: Gray had 17 touches against the Chicago Bears compared with eight for Vereen. The Pats have found the latest in a long line of RBs who will mess with your best-laid plans. That's not to say Gray is now a pure fantasy starter. He isn't. But provided the Patriots don't acquire another RB by Tuesday's trade deadline, he now occupies the Ridley role, and week to week it will be tough to figure out the Pats' plans. Put it this way: If it's Vereen and Gray the rest of the way, I'd take Gray to score the most touchdowns.
Brandon LaFell, WR, Patriots (25.8 percent): Has LaFell officially surpassed Julian Edelman as the Patriots' No. 1 wideout? Maybe not. He out-targeted Edelman 11-4 on Sunday, but that was literally the first game that's happened all year. However, LaFell's production has certainly been better of late. The past three weeks, he has 19 catches for 276 yards and three TDs, compared with Edelman's 14/149/0. In a thin waiver-wire week, LaFell looks like the best WR bet owned in fewer than half of ESPN leagues. If I'm hesitant to embrace LaFell fully, though, it's because he's been a flag player of mine in the past and something always seems to go wrong. He suddenly develops a case of the drops, he runs the wrong pattern, he gets hurt … something. This isn't aBrian Quick scenario, where you can safely ignore production because by definition the player's situation is self-limiting. LaFell catches passes from a red-hot Tom Brady, but I admit I still have more than a grain of doubt.

Martavis Bryant, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (1.7 percent): Bryant graduates from speculative to solid add in one week. Don't overreact to Ben Roethlisberger's 522 Week 8 pass yards; he hasn't topped 300 yards in five of his first seven contests. And heck, Bryant has all of seven regular-season catches in his NFL career. But it's the way the Steelers are using him. It looked an awful lot to me like Bryant may have passed Markus Wheaton in the pecking order against theIndianapolis Colts, and the numbers bear this out: Bryant played 30 snaps in two-WR sets Sunday, compared with 11 for Wheaton. It's probably overaggressive to say Bryant is now a must-start, because Wheaton played well in Week 8, too, and could cancel out the rookie's production. But I do think Bryant is worth owning in all formats.

Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, Baltimore Ravens (12.7 percent): Bernard Pierce was a surprise healthy scratch Sunday, as the Ravens went with Justin Forsett as their lead man and Taliaferro as the hammer. Is there value in being the hammer? Well, you get a lot of stat lines like this: 7 carries and 2 TDs. Take away the touchdowns and you're bummed, of course, but they sure are sweet when you get 'em. I don't think Taliaferro has rare qualities for a RB; mostly he's a big dude who's asked to run straight into the line. To be fair, though, each of his Week 8 scores featured a little bit of open-field weaving, and he also caught a couple of passes. Forsett is the guy you'd rather start, but for as long as he's ahead of Pierce, Taliaferro will give you a little something each week.
Cincinnati Bengals Defense (47.7 percent): Here's the paint-by-numbers portion of this column: Find the defense facing the Jacksonville Jaguars and recommend it. However, the Bengals' ownership levels are relatively close to 50 percent, so they may not be available in your league. You can also take a look at the Kansas City Chiefs (47.6 percent) facing Michael Vick and the hapless New York Jets, and the Cleveland Browns (47.6 percent) taking on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. These are clearly the three plus matchups of the week. If you're in a deeper league where none of these D/STs are available, you can think about streaming Washington (11.4 percent) against a relatively generous Minnesota Vikings offense. That unit stood up fairly well Monday night against the Dallas Cowboys.
Other solid waiver adds, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Bryce Brown, RB, Bills (20.2 percent).
Speculative standard-league finds


Bobby Rainey, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (20.9 percent): It's not that Doug Martin played terribly in Week 8. He had a few moments; you can sometimes see the combination of power and acceleration that's mostly hidden because he plays behind a bad offensive line in perhaps the NFL's most disappointing offense. Instead, it's that Martin can't stay on the field. He folded over backward Sunday and got his ankle trapped beneath him, and left the game in the third quarter. Did Rainey do anything in Martin's absence? No. It feels pretty unlikely that anyone is primed to go ballistic playing in that backfield. But the Bucs have to be maddened by Martin's incapacity to stay healthy. So maybe Rainey gets a crack, or maybe it's rookie Charles Sims (2.6 percent), who could be worth a look despite never having posted a regular-season carry.

Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts (0.5 percent): In Week 8, Hakeem Nicks had a first-quarter red zone target clang off his hands and wasn't open all that much, whereas Moncrief was open all day and ended up with seven grabs for 113 yards. Now, there are a few bummers here for Moncrief's standard-league value. First,Reggie Wayne's elbow could get healthy for Week 9. Also, even if Wayne is out, the Colts run just about as many two-WR sets as any team in the NFL, and Moncrief took exactly one snap in a two-WR set Sunday. But if Indy takes an honest look at what it has, it'll see this 6-foot-2, 211-pound rookie runs circles around the similarly-sized but slowing-down Nicks.

Theo Riddick, RB, Detroit Lions (0.8 percent): Riddick doesn't do much as a rusher, but he's aReggie Bush clone in the receiving game, consistently taking short dump-offs and taking them long distances. He got a whopping 12 targets Sunday in London, and frankly wearing that No. 25 uniform, he looks an awful lot like a young Bush from his New Orleans Saints days. The Lions are off this week and Bush's injured ankle will have time to improve, but I'm unconvinced The Prez will keep his health. We'll be hearing more from Riddick.
Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers (10.7 percent): As I mentioned on the "deep" list last week, Adams is now Aaron Rodgers' clear-cut No. 3 WR over Jarrett Boykin, and the rookie has seen at least eight targets in two of his past three contests. By definition, third receivers are tough to trust because game flow can ruin their prospects, but if there's any QB whose No. 3 is speculatively ownable (after the Packers' Week 9 bye), it's A-Rod.
Other speculative standard-league waiver adds, about whom I've written in previous weeks:Carson Palmer, QB, Cardinals (37.6 percent); Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers (20.4 percent);Anthony Dixon, RB, Bills (33.5 percent); Benny Cunningham, RB, Rams (11.7 percent); Andre Holmes, WR, Raiders (32.6 percent); Markus Wheaton, WR, Steelers (14.1 percent); Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars (24.9 percent); Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns (22.7 percent).
Deeper-league finds
Travaris Cadet, RB, Saints (7.4 percent): The Saints play the Carolina Panthers Thursday night, and neither the injured Pierre Thomas nor the injured Khiry Robinson is likely to play. That leaves only Cadet behind workhorse Mark Ingram. Cadet caught only four passes in a shootout Sunday night, so assuming that he's a PPR monster waiting to happen is overly optimistic, but it's possible. Cadet is the kind of waterbug who could absolutely give you one of those surpriseDarren Sproles megayardage games with just a few catches.
Kenny Britt, WR, St. Louis Rams (1.5 percent): Brian Quick suffered a dislocated left shoulder and torn rotator cuff Sunday and will miss the rest of the season. The Rams will also be without starting left tackle Jake Long (torn ACL), so investing heavily in any of the team's offensive weapons is probably folly. But Britt is pretty much all that's left in this receiving corps, thoughStedman Bailey (0.1 percent) did get some run late in Week 8. We all know Britt's deal: talented dude, but something always goes awry.
Kenny Stills, WR, Saints (5.3 percent): Boom? Meet bust. That's been the up-and-down story of every ancillary Saints receiver for the entire Drew Brees Era. Heck, Marques Colston andBrandin Cooks have a hard time finding enough to eat in the same week, let alone a third guy, but Stills does have at least 57 yards receiving in three of his past four.

Other solid waiver adds for deep-leaguers, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Vikings (10.6 percent); Austin Davis, QB, Rams (15.0 percent); Joseph Randle, RB, Cowboys (9.3 percent); Alfred Blue, RB, Texans (7.3 percent); Antone Smith, RB Falcons (32.8 percent); Juwan Thompson, RB, Broncos (1.1 percent); Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers (41.0 percent); John Brown, WR, Cardinals (3.7 percent); Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins (5.3 percent);Paul Richardson, WR, Seahawks (0.7 percent); Jermaine Kearse, WR, Seahawks (15.7 percent);Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles (10.9 percent); Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Buccaneers (1.4 percent); Tim Wright, TE, Patriots (5.0 percent).
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]32 fantasy tips to win in Week 9[/h][h=3]Big plays on way for Harvin and Sanders, plus more advice for week ahead[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Mike Clay[/FONT] | Pro Football Focus

Below are 32 notes covering each of the league's 32 teams. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions this week. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
1. Percy Harvin wasn't always just an underneath threat. During his first two pro seasons, Harvin's 9.5 average depth of target was actually above the 8.9 league average. His aDOT fell to 5.9 during his career-best 2011 campaign, was 4.3 in 2012 and dwindled to a minuscule 3.4 during his five games with Seattle this season. It seems, however, that the Jets have a new role in mind for their recent acquisition. Harvin's aDOT was a massive 17.6 on nine targets in his Jets debut. He saw a few looks near the line of scrimmage (distances of minus-2, minus-1 and 4 yards) but was also targeted deep (distances of 36, 43 and 48 yards). Harvin fantasy owners should be excited about the potential big plays, but keep in mind that his only three catches in the game were on the short throws. The Jets' quarterback situation is messy, which means plenty of inefficient weeks are in store for Harvin.


2. Emmanuel Sanders has some interesting pre- and post-bye splits this season. Prior to the team's Week 4 bye, he caught 25 of his 33 targets for 334 yards and zero touchdowns. In four games since, he has 22 receptions, 300 yards and four scores on 27 targets. Overall usage is down since Wes Welkerreturned from suspension, but overall fantasy effectiveness is clearly up. So how do we explain the boost? Through five weeks, Sanders had not seen a single end zone target. Over his last three games, he has seen four, three of which were caught for a score. Sanders' fourth touchdown came after a catch at the opponent's 1-yard line. He is locked in as a WR1 in all formats.
3. In the four games since their Week 4 bye, the Cardinals' target distribution has not been as expected. Andre Ellington paces the team with 29 targets. He is followed by Larry Fitzgerald (26),John Brown (26), Michael Floyd (18) and John Carlson (17). You read that correctly: Floyd is fourth in the category, averaging 4.5 targets per game, and is barely ahead of Carlson. Common sense suggests Floyd's usage will rise, but with Brown emerging into one of the league's top No. 3 wideouts, it's unlikely to see a huge boost. There is hope, however, especially in non-PPR leagues. Floyd's 19.8 aDOT is highest in the league among players with 40 or more targets. Production figures to be inconsistent, but Floyd is going to score a handful of long touchdowns down the stretch.
<offer></offer>
4. Charles Sims, who is set to return from an ankle injury that has kept him off the field so far this season, should be your top waiver-wire target this week. The Buccaneers' new regime selected him in the third round of May's draft. Following a strong offseason, Sims was primed for a significant offensive role, especially on passing downs. With Doug Martin struggling with health and effectiveness, Sims' second-half role figures to be even larger than anticipated. The Tampa Bay offense isn't scoring much, but Sims figures to see enough work to allow RB2 production.
5. One of my favorite 2014 late-round fliers, Donte Moncrief exploded onto the fantasy scene this week with seven receptions, 113 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. With Reggie Wayneout, the rookie worked as the team's No. 3 wide receiver, but he was clearly more effective thanHakeem Nicks. Going forward, expect Moncrief to move ahead of Nicks, not unlike how fellow rookies Davante Adams and Jarvis Landry disposed of Jarrett Boykin and Brandon Gibson, respectively. An emerging player in the league's No. 2-scoring offense, Moncrief should be owned in 12-team leagues.
6. Ronnie Hillman sits fourth in fantasy points (per PFF's default fantasy scoring) among running backs while operating as Denver's lead back over the past three weeks. He has averaged a whopping 23.7 looks (carries plus targets) during the span. Montee Ball is due back from injury shortly, but it's unlikely that he will get his job back. Ball might seem entitled to the starting gig after the team selected him in the second round of last year's draft, but note that Hillman was a third-round pick in 2012 and is actually younger by almost a year. Hillman will provide back-end RB1 production as long as he is the lead back in the league's top-scoring offense.
7. In two games since Harvin was shipped to New York, Doug Baldwin has seen a massive 28 percent of the Seahawks' targets. During that span, he sits 12th in fantasy points among wide receivers. His 6.4 aDOT leaves plenty to be desired in the yardage department, but there's enough usage to warrant WR2/3 consideration most weeks. Although he managed just two catches in Week 8, Jermaine Kearse is an every-down player as well and is on the WR4 radar.
8. Denard Robinson entered fantasy relevance over the past two weeks, but it's important that expectations are held in check. Robinson handled 77 percent of the carries by Jaguars tailbacks (40 total) during the two games, but he managed only two targets. Additionally, the Jaguars were unusually competitive in the two games, which allowed them to rack up 61 carries during the span. That's compared to an average of 18.5 per game during their first six. Averaging 1.6 offensive touchdowns per game, the Jaguars are ahead of only the Vikings in the category. Robinson is more of a borderline RB2 than an every-week lock.
9. Isaiah Crowell was surprisingly limited to one carry in Week 8, but it's only a matter of time until he takes over as Cleveland's lead back. Current feature back Ben Tate is averaging only 3.6 yards per carry, which includes a career-worst 1.8 yards after contact per attempt. Crowell hasn't been much better after contact, but he is averaging 4.9 yards per carry despite facing a base defense on 85 percent of his carries. That's the fourth-highest mark in the league. Considering that Cleveland operates the league's No. 2 run-heaviest offense, Crowell should be owned in all 12-team leagues.
10. The Bears have lost four of their past five games, but there's plenty of reason for optimism for Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery owners. Consider that the duo combined for a season-high 53 percent of Chicago's targets during Sunday's loss. That's a point in the right direction after they combined for 55 percent during the 2013 season. Despite an overall dip in usage, both are among the top 25 wide receivers in fantasy points this season. The Bears are the NFL's fifth pass-heaviest team and in the upper half of the league in offensive touchdowns.


11. I like when players I hype up cooperate, and that's exactly whatKeenan Allen did last week. Allen had been the target leader among all players who had yet to catch a touchdown this season. He got off the schneid by scoring on one of his 13 targets against Denver. Enjoying an even larger piece of the target pie than he saw during his eight-score rookie campaign, expect Allen to continue racking up the touchdowns going forward. He's a solid WR2 option.
12. With Allen, Markus Wheaton andAndrew Hawkins off the hook, Jared Cookis now the target leader among players who have yet to score a touchdown this season. Despite standing at 6-foot-5, 254 pounds, Cook has inexplicably yet to see an end zone target. Only four of his 45 targets have come while he was within 10 yards of the end zone. Rounding out the top five in targets among players without a score are Jerricho Cotchery (37),Jermaine Gresham (36), Jarius Wright (36) and Percy Harvin (35).
13. Jerick McKinnon had a major breakout opportunity against a struggling Buccaneers defense on Sunday, but he again failed to find the end zone. The rookie's 76 carries are a league high among running backs who have yet to score a rushing touchdown. McKinnon has managed only two carries within 14 yards of the end zone and none within 5 yards. Rounding out the top five in carries among active backs without a touchdown this season are Alfred Blue (60), Donald Brown (59), Anthony Dixon (49) and Ka'Deem Carey (28).
14. Over the past five years, NFL tailbacks are averaging 4.1 yards per carry against base defenses. That mark jumps to 4.6 against nickel and 5.5 versus dime. This is a major advantage for backs who primarily see the field on passing downs and for those who operate in spread/shotgun offenses. So far this season, Shane Vereen has been the biggest benefactor in this department. Of Vereen's 58 carries, 84 percent have come against a nickel or dime defense. Rounding out the top five in the category among backs with 50 or more carries this year areLamar Miller (73 percent), Matt Forte (72 percent), Bishop Sankey (65 percent) and Denard Robinson (65 percent).
15. On the other hand, we have surprising Week 8 healthy scratch Bernard Pierce. His underwhelming 3.6 yards per carry are doing him no favors, but it's worth noting that no back has been at more of a disadvantage in terms of defensive personnel this season. Pierce has faced a base or a goal-line defensive package on 98 percent of his 55 attempts. That is highest among all backs with 50 or more carries this season. Rounding out the top five in the category are Toby Gerhart (87 percent), Lorenzo Taliaferro (86 percent), Zac Stacy (85 percent) and the aforementioned Crowell (85 percent). Pierce can be dropped in redraft leagues, but he is worth buy-low consideration in dynasty. He's only 23 years old.
16. Speaking of offensive schemes, no team has had its third wide receiver on the field more often than the Green Bay Packers (82 percent) this season. The Giants (75 percent), Dolphins (71 percent), Titans (71 percent) and Steelers (70 percent) round out the top five in the category. As mentioned in previous editions of the Fantasy 32, this is a good place to find under-the-radar fantasy producers. Davante Adams, Preston Parker, Jarvis Landry, Nate Washingtonand Martavis Bryant are the No. 3 wide receivers on each team's depth chart, respectively.
17. On the other end of the spectrum, we have clubs that use their third wide receiver significantly less often. The Chiefs have had their No. 3 wide receiver on the field a league-low 35 percent of the time. This is far from a surprise with the team short on wide receiver depth andTravis Kelce emerging into a force behind Anthony Fasano. Rounding out the top five in the category are the Ravens (37 percent), Browns (39 percent), Patriots (39 percent) and Rams (45 percent). The likes of A.J. Jenkins, Marlon Brown, Taylor Gabriel, Danny Amendola and Chris Givens should be off your radar when looking for a bye-week replacement.
18. Much has been made about Kelce's lack of playing time this season, but working just under 50 percent of the team's snaps has been enough to allow him to pace the Chiefs in targets. Tenth among tight ends in fantasy points, Kelce is already an every-week TE1, but he figures to see even more work going forward. Those concerned about his eight catches for 78 yards and zero scores over the past two weeks should stay the course.
19. Week 8 gave us our first look at the Buffalo backfield sans both C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. Unsurprisingly, the Bills rolled with a two-headed attack composed of Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown. Dixon worked 40 of a possible 53 snaps. He racked up 22 carries and ran 12 pass routes. Brown carried the ball seven times and was targeted twice but played only 13 snaps. It's possible Brown's role increases, but he is too risky to start until it does. He's talented enough to warrant a spot on your bench.
20. Often overlooked because of a consistent string of injuries, Ben Roethlisberger sits sixth in fantasy points among quarterbacks this season. He was eighth in the category last season after finishing 11th in fantasy points per game in 2012, 14th in 2011, seventh in 2010 and third in 2009. Going forward, we obviously can't expect a repeat of Roethlisberger's six-touchdown Week 8 performance, but what we should expect is back-end QB1 production.
21. With Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson out of action, Mark Ingram racked up 24 carries, 172 yards and a touchdown against Green Bay on Sunday night. Although 24-year-old Ingram is finally emerging this season, he is not yet on the RB1 radar despite scoring four times in four appearances. First of all, Robinson is due back this week and will be significantly more involved as a rusher than Travaris Cadet (one carry) was on Sunday. Thomas will miss another week or two, but he will inevitably eat into Ingram's snaps. Additionally, Ingram sees little work as a receiver. The Saints have called run on an enormous 56 percent of his snaps this season. Ingram is an underrated talent and operates in a very good offense, but playing time and role limitations make him more of a back-end RB2 option.
22. It's been a relatively quiet two weeks for James Jones (10 receptions, 97 yards, no touchdowns), but savvy owners will notice that he totaled 20 targets in those games. Only six wide receivers eclipsed that mark during the span. Clearly Derek Carr's favorite target while Rod Streater recovers, Jones will make for a strong WR3 play most weeks.


23. After averaging 11 percent of the Eagles' targets during the team's first three games, Zach Ertz has seen at least 15 percent in four consecutive games. Ertz's usage near the goal line leaves plenty to be desired (just three end zone targets this year), but he is clearly emerging as Nick Foles' second or third option. Keep him in your lineup against Houston this weekend.
24. Replacing injured A.J. Green as Cincinnati's top offensive target, Mohamed Sanu has been red-hot over the past three weeks. He averaged just over 10 targets per game and was 11th among wide receivers in fantasy points during the span. Green is expected back this week, however, which will significantly reduce Andy Dalton's reliance on Sanu. Additionally, Tyler Eifert will be back in a week or two. Sanu is not a player you want in your starting lineup down the stretch. Now is your best chance to sell.
25. The Lions enter their Week 9 bye having scored only 17 offensive touchdowns in eight games. That 2.1 per game mark is significantly lower than their marks of 2.8, 2.4 and 3.2 over the past three seasons. Although that's certainly a concern, it's worth noting that almost all of the team's offensive skill-position players have been injured. Joique Bell, Reggie Bush, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, Joseph Fauriaand Eric Ebron have each missed at least one game, but all could conceivably be back in Week 10. There's good reason to expect a much-improved offensive effort in the second half.
26. Brian Quick appears to be out for the season with a shoulder injury, which means a new look for the St. Louis receiver corps. Following Quick's departure from Sunday's game, the wide receiver snap distribution was as follows: Kenny Britt (34), Tavon Austin (25), Stedman Bailey(22), Chris Givens (22). Austin was in on 19 of the team's final 22 plays and lined up at tailback only once following Quick's exit. It appears Britt will be an every-down player, with Austin in the slot. Givens and Bailey will rotate opposite Britt in three-wide sets, but note that St. Louis has its second tight end on the field 42 percent of the time, which is the league's fifth-highest mark. Britt and Austin are worth bench consideration, but there's not a ton of upside here. Keep Bailey stashed in dynasty leagues.
27. Arguably the top asset in fantasy football right now, Arian Foster trails only DeMarco Murrayin fantasy points at the running back position despite missing Week 3 due to injury. Foster's seven rushing scores and 5.2 yards per carry go a long way toward his success, but he's also been heavily involved as a receiver. Since returning to action in Week 4, Foster has seen 20 percent of the team's targets. Those who gambled on Foster with a late first-round pick will continue to reap the benefits.
28. Jason Witten had his best game of the year Monday night, hauling in five passes for 70 yards and a score on a season-high eight targets. Now 32, Witten's career is on the downturn, but he's still an every-down player. He has seen 18 percent of Dallas' targets this season, which is exactly what he saw last year when he finished fifth in fantasy points among tight ends. The difference this year is that the Cowboys are running the ball significantly more often. A repeat top-five finish is unlikely, but Witten is a solid back-end TE1 option going forward.
29. With Dennis Pitta on injured reserve and Owen Daniels out for a few weeks, Crockett Gillmore (48 snaps) and Kyle Juszczyk (37) picked up the slack at tight end for Baltimore on Sunday. Focusing primarily on blocking, the duo combined for three targets. Owners eyeing a bye-week replacement for Delanie Walker and Martellus Bennett should look elsewhere.
30. DeSean Jackson's 2014 production has been the definition of volatile. Jackson has eclipsed 110 receiving yards in four of his eight games, scoring all three of his touchdowns in those affairs. On the other hand, he has caught three or fewer balls in four games, failing to eclipse 50 yards in three of those games. Eighth in receiving yards and 14th in fantasy points among wide receivers this season, Jackson is explosive enough to warrant WR2 consideration. Just be don't surprised when he lays an egg.
31. Arguably the best part about a dynasty league is the fact that you are never truly eliminated. Out of the mix for the 2014 title? Get to work on 2015 and beyond. With most fantasy trade deadlines right around the corner, now is the time to make forward-thinking moves. The future stars currently easiest to acquire are those who are nonfactors this season.
Here are a few players to target (with their projected 2015 role in parentheses): Christine Michael (Seattle's lead back), Carlos Hyde (San Francisco's lead back), Devonta Freeman(Atlanta's lead back), Ka'Deem Carey (29-year-old Matt Forte's handcuff), Tyler Eifert (Cincinnati's No. 1 tight end), Cody Latimer (Denver's No. 3 wide receiver), Eric Ebron (Detroit's No. 1 tight end), Justin Blackmon (someone's No. 1 or 2 wide receiver), Ladarius Green (35-year-old Antonio Gates' handcuff), Paul Richardson (Seattle's No. 2 wide receiver) and Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Tampa Bay's No. 1 tight end).
Don't be afraid to get bold. Sending soon-to-be 29-year-old Marshawn Lynch for Michael or Hyde is a low-risk, high-upside move.
32. Done making offers for future studs? Switch your focus to current studs. There are plenty sitting on your opponent's injured reserve list. The top current targets are Dennis Pitta, C.J. Spiller, Stevan Ridley, Victor Cruz, Brian Quick and Marvin Jones. Pitta and Cruz are the riskiest to acquire as they are both the oldest and suffered the more career-threatening injuries. Spiller and Ridley are both impending free agents. Jones and Quick are emerging stars.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,135,148
Messages
13,823,646
Members
104,180
Latest member
craiglindsey46
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com