Fantasy Football News 2014/15

HacheMan · Sep 7, 2014

[h=1]Start Justin Hunter in Week 1[/h][h=3]Our former NFL QB provides his three biggest fantasy tips for the week[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Tim Hasselbeck[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

I've found that in the modern world of technology, innovation and constant motion -- I can't even fathom using a Palm Trio today -- there are some things that never change. Case in point: This summer, I was asked to speak to a football team at a high school about an hour from my house. My general message was to lean on your teammates and to understand that there are a limited number of times you'll put the pads on, so it's important to cherish the experience.
My biggest takeaway from the day spent there was that in the 20 years since I've been a high school football player, not a whole lot has changed. The kids were doing the same exercises using the same weights that players did in my day. The attitude of the players and coaches was the same, and even the unique smell of the locker room seemed the same.
Some people say that NFL stands for "not for long," and looking at all the changes every summer -- in personnel, coaching and rules -- that's probably true. But some things don't change, and there are ways to take advantage of that in fantasy football. Here are my three big pieces of fantasy start-sit advice for Week 1, based on what I'm seeing, hearing and thinking.
[h=3]What I'm seeing[/h]Start Justin Hunter: <offer>For the most part, the Kansas City Chiefs were a pretty great defense in 2013, but their corners struggled. Teams that could block up front took advantage of that shortcoming. Looking ahead to 2014, that's not going to change.</offer>
Brandon Flowers is gone. Right now, the starting corners are Marcus Cooper -- who had his struggles in 2013 -- and Ron Parker, who has drifted around the league the past three seasons.Sean Smith is also in the mix, but he can't run well anymore. Chris Owens is a nice special-teams player.
In Week 1, I expect the Tennessee Titans to take advantage of this running Ken Whisenhunt's vertical offense, and I think Hunter will be a major factor. He is 6-foot-4 with great long speed, and it's hard not to see him blazing by the Chiefs' corners. It only takes one big play for Hunter to make a fantasy impact -- you're probably starting him in your WR3 or Flex spot -- and Whisenhunt knows how to work these KC corners after playing them twice in 2013.
I've got Hunter down for four or more catches for 80 or more yards and a touchdown this week.
[h=3]What I'm hearing[/h]Tony Romo is a top-10 QB this week: My line this offseason on "Fantasy Football Now," "NFL Live" and other shows has been, "Do you know anyone who used to have a bad back?" Everyone I know that has had back problems -- myself included -- still has back problems. It's not something that goes away.

I've been hearing a lot of people talking in optimistic terms about Romo's back surgery this summer -- "the surgery wasn't that invasive" or "Gronk had it,Steven Jackson had it." Well, any surgery is a big deal, and those other guys didn't have it when they were 34 years old.
So, Romo's back really concerns me in terms of his season-long value. But in Week 1? I like him a lot.
The Cowboys are playing against the 49ers and will be throwing a lot; the 49ers will put up big numbers against this Dallas D, and new Cowboys offensive coordinator Scott Linehan has a history of airing it out a ton. The 49ers are also playing without their best pass-rusher (Aldon Smith) and one of their best overall defenders (NaVorro Bowman). And, oh yeah, Romo still has one of the game's best wide receivers in Dez Bryant, the reliable Jason Witten at TE and a rising athlete in Terrance Williams.
There's been a lot of change around him in Dallas (and back surgery counts as a change, too), but one thing is staying the same from recent seasons: Romo will be a top-10 QB in Week 1. I believe he'll throw for at least 350 yards and add two touchdowns or more. Later on in the season, after he's taken a lot more hits to that surgically repaired back? I'll likely be less optimistic.
[h=3]What I'm thinking[/h]The Jets' defense could dominate: I usually like to focus on players as opposed to D/STs in this column, but this is a week where there's a big opportunity to stream a particular one: theNew York Jets, who are owned in only 5.5 percent of ESPN leagues.
I've been hearing a lot about how the Jets took a step back on D after losing Antonio Cromartiein free agency and Dee Milliner to an injury for the start of the season. But what hasn't changed? The guy running the show.
Rex Ryan has altered the way defense is deployed in the NFL on third downs because of his creativity. Ryan's "junk blitzes" -- where defenders move around before the snap to disguise which guys will actually be rushing in -- make it so the offense doesn't know what's coming. It's tough on a veteran, let alone a rookie.
The Jets get to face a rookie in Week 1, and there has not been anywhere near enough time for Greg Olson and John DeFilippo to get Derek Carr ready for what he'll face at MetLife Stadium on Sunday. He's going to see a lot of things he's never seen before.
I liked what I saw from Carr when he was at Fresno State and thought he was the second-most NFL-ready QB in this class behind Blake Bortles. But the one thing I noticed is that he doesn't like pressure. When he thinks he's going to be hit, he panics and tries to scramble. The Jets' front seven is going to apply a lot of pressure, and it's going to come from where Carr least expects it. He's going to give the Jets the chance to get their hands on the ball and rack up some sacks.
I get it, the Jets' corners aren't great. But the safeties will be a strength of this defense. The Jets will be a top-five D/ST in Week 1.

HacheMan · Sep 9, 2014

[h=1]Long-term fantasy pickup targets[/h][h=3]McCluster, Quick among players who could break out as season progresses[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Matt Williamson[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

very week, I will be providing advice on potential fantasy football waiver-wire pickups for re-draft and dynasty leagues alike, with an eye toward longer-term plays that could be flying below the radar. I'll avoid the obvious names and highlight some lesser-known guys that could give you a leg up over your competition.
Of course, there can be some overlap between re-draft and dynasty, but for the most part I am operating under the assumption that your re-draft leagues have smaller rosters and it is more difficult to stash someone for a few weeks while crossing your fingers they hit big later on.
Here are some long-term pickup targets coming out of Week 1:

[h=3]Re-draft[/h]14-team or larger leagues

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Santonio Holmes, WR, Chicago Bears
Both Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall were dinged up against the Bills, and the Bears lost two starting offensive linemen as well. Let's just say that Week 1 against the Bills didn't go as Chicago had planned. But the newly signed Holmes flashed in his Bears debut, and as he gets more comfortable, his role could expand in what should still be an excellent offense.
<offer></offer>

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Dexter McCluster, WR, Tennessee TitansBishop Sankey was nowhere to be found early in the Titans' win over the Chiefs, and he got his touches after the Titans had the victory all but sealed up, but McCluster ran the ball nine times and will be a fixture in the Titans' passing game, much as Danny Woodhead was used by Ken Whisenhunt last season in San Diego. McCluster only caught one pass on Sunday, but he does have more appeal in PPR leagues.

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Hawkins
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Andrew Hawkins, WR, Cleveland Browns
Hawkins is going to be a PPR slot machine this season and started very strong in Week 1 as the Browns' top wide receiver. He was targeted 10 times, catching eight of those for 87 yards. Touchdowns will never be Hawkins' forte, but he is a safe, dependable option for Brian Hoyer or Johnny Manziel and is very good after the catch. He could be snapped up in some re-draft leagues this week and then dropped later on, but I think his best value could come toward the end of the season, especially if some of the top-performing fantasy WRs go down due to injury.

12-team Leagues

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Isaiah Crowell, RB, Cleveland Browns
Ben Tate has an extensive injury history and left this game with a knee issue. Even if Tate is in the picture and the Browns have their full stable of running backs, Crowell still could emerge as their best option as the season goes along. He is the most talented back on the roster and looked simply outstanding in Cleveland's final preseason game before rushing for 32 yards and two touchdowns on five carries Sunday against the Steelers.
We know the Browns are going to run the ball a ton and they have a very good offensive line, but with Crowell's leverage, power and great feet and burst, he could be quite useful during his rookie season. He and Terrance West, who finished the day with 100 yards rushing, ran through some big holes in Pittsburgh.
Some owners might pick up Crowell this week on the basis of his two-touchdown performance and insert him into the lineup right away, but I think Crowell's value could be much higher later in the season. His role is only going to grow, and he'd be a great pickup to stash on your bench for a few weeks.

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Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders
Maurice Jones-Drew looked very sluggish in Week 1, and we all know that Darren McFadden is an injury waiting to happen. The Raiders faced a very tough Jets run defense and mustered just a 1.7 yards per carry average en route to racking up a measly 25 yards on the ground.
We know that with a rookie quarterback, Oakland wants to run the football, which could mean a change in who is toting the rock. That could be exactly the opportunity that Murray, who has an excellent combination of size and speed, needs. Also, the Raiders' offensive line is breaking in several new starters, so as the season goes along, they should be able to develop more continuity.

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Brian Quick, WR, St. Louis Rams
Quick was one of the very few bright spots for the Rams in Week 1 and has been a pleasant surprise during the preseason as well. He ended this day with 99 receiving yards, and while the Rams have a jumbled mess at the wide receiver position and his quarterback might be Austin Davis (after Shaun Hill injured his thigh), Quick now belongs in every re-draft league. Jared Cook, an extremely hot name just one year ago, is another guy to keep an eye on in this offense. But fair warning for anybody who owns a Ram: The general outlook for this offense is terrible right now.
Others to consider: Ahmad Bradshaw, Lance Dunbar, Harry Douglas, Jermaine Gresham,Devin Hester, Houston D/ST, Miami D/ST, Jacquizz Rodgers, Delanie Walker

[h=3]Dynasty[/h]

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Mark Sanchez, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
It started off very ugly for Nick Foles against the Jaguars and of all the top fantasy quarterbacks, and it is Foles who has the least job security of that bunch. While Foles' numbers at the end of the day were certainly respectable, he did probably play the worst half of football of his career in the first half of this game ... and Sanchez did play very well in his new offense during the preseason.
I am not suggesting that Foles should be benched in Philadelphia, but I do know that I want the Eagles' starting quarterback on my dynasty team. Stashing Sanchez could pay off huge at some point in the near future. At a minimum, he is a great handcuff for Foles in case of injury. The Eagles also lost Evan Mathis and Allen Barbre in this game, and with Lane Johnsonsuspended for the first four games of the season, Philadelphia's depleted offensive line could result in a lot more hits to Foles.

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Justin Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Brown saw playing time this week with Lance Moore and Martavis Bryant out of the Steelers' lineup. The second-year wideout had a very good training camp and caught three passes in Pittsburgh's opener. The Steelers lack size at wide receiver, which is something Brown brings to the table. Ben Roethlisberger is playing at a very high level and showing zero signs of slowing down. Brown's role could grow as the season goes along, plus he is one of the few Steelers' wide receivers who is an effective blocker.

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Gary Barnidge, WR, Cleveland Browns
If Jordan Cameron misses extended time with his shoulder injury and with Josh Gordon out of the lineup, someone needs to step up in Cleveland. Barnidge only caught one pass for 13 yards and isn't a high upside play, but his situation for playing time bears monitoring for fantasy purposes, especially with the rash of tight end injuries in Week 1. Still, you have to be in pretty bad shape to go down this road.

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Niles Paul, TE, Washington Redskins
Jordan Reed, who left the Redskins' loss to Houston with a hamstring injury and did not return, is someone dynasty owners in particular should consider adding Paul to their roster. The Redskins need receivers with size, especially in the red zone, and while Paul isn't as athletic as Reed, he does provide a red-zone presence and is good after the catch.
A bit of a hybrid/tweener, Paul isn't the typical tight end, but given the state of the Redskins' defense, Washington could be in catch-up mode quite a bit in 2014. He had 86 receiving yards in a losing effort in Houston on Sunday in a game in which the Redskins were unable to protect long enough to threaten the field deep. Again, that could benefit the short passing game and Paul.
Others to consider: Travis Benjamin, Larry Donnell, Mike Glennon, Antone Smith, Devin Street, De'Anthony Thomas, Jordan Todman

HacheMan · Sep 9, 2014

[h=1]Buy-low targets after Week 1[/h][h=3]A look at fantasy flops who could be bargains and top waiver-wire pickups[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]KC Joyner[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

One of the benefits of attempting to stockpile fantasy football roster talent after Week 1 is the frustration some fantasy owners will experience with star players who underperformed in the opening contest of the season.
Savvy operators will know what to say to get those fantasy owners to move these potential starters to the sell list, fully knowing that this is merely turning those players into great buy-low candidates.
This week's Fantasy Foresight article aims to help those folks by offering four players who could be acquired at bargain rates following subpar Week 1 performances. Each player has a fact that would justify putting him on the sell list (the spur to get opposing owners to part with the player) and another fact that details why he is actually a great buy-low candidate.
Also included below are three players whose stellar Week 1 performances will continue this season and three who won't be able to sustain their Week 1 success, followed by three waiver-wire pickups I'm making this week.
<offer></offer>

[h=3]Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington Redskins[/h]Fact to justify selling low: Griffin had as many fumbles (two) as rushing yards (two) and tallied a meager total of only eight fantasy points. He just isn't ready to make the move to being a full-time pocket passer.
Reason he is a buy-low candidate: The biggest factor in Griffin's decline last season was going from a 15.0-yard mark in the vertical yards per attempt (VYPA) metric in 2012 (first in the league) to a 10.5-yard mark in 2013 (ranked tied for 22nd). He had a 14.7 VYPA against the Houston Texans in Week 1, a number that indicates a return to the 2012 downfield production level could still be in the works.
Head coach Jay Gruden is the type of coach who will adapt his offense to whatever his players can do, so the lack of rushing production should be an anomaly.

[h=3]DeSean Jackson, WR, Washington Redskins[/h]Fact to justify selling low: Jackson is Washington's best deep threat, and yet he saw only one vertical target and zero stretch vertical targets (passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield) against the Texans. This led to a mediocre showing of only six fantasy points.
Reason he is a buy-low candidate: Gruden's offenses are built around downfield passing. Last season, his Cincinnati Bengals offense ranked tied for fourth in stretch vertical pass attempts (78). Jackson registered a 7-to-1 short-pass- (aerials thrown 10 or fewer yards) to-vertical-pass ratio against Houston, and that is not a scenario that is going to happen very often this season.

[h=3]Toby Gerhart, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars[/h]Fact to justify selling low: Jacksonville got off to a fantastic start by running up a 17-0 halftime lead at Philadelphia, and yet this benefited Gerhart to the tune of only five fantasy points in the entire game.
Reason he is a buy-low candidate: Gerhart has a history of posting very high totals in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that gauges a ball carrier's production when given good blocking (which is very roughly defined as when the offense doesn't allow the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). While filling in for Adrian Peterson in 2011, Gerhart posted a 9.3 GBYPA that ranked sixth in the league.
His 6.8 GBYPA against the Eagles was not up to that standard, but it should be noted that Philadelphia ranked tied for first in the league in GBYPA allowed last year. Gerhart also didn't have much room to run, as the Jaguars' blockers gave him good blocking on only 27.8 percent of his carries. Even the worst run-blocking teams in the league post good blocking rates in the 38 to 40 percent range, so Gerhart will get much better run-blocking numbers in the future. That should lead to a dramatic increase in his fantasy point production.

[h=3]Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills[/h]Fact to justify selling low: The Chicago Bears' pass defense looked to offer Watkins a very favorable path to a great debut in his NFL career, and yet he ended up with only four targets and three fantasy points.
Reason he is a buy-low candidate: Watkins saw three vertical targets all game, although one of them was nullified by a penalty. Prorate the three-vertical-targets-per-contest pace over 16 games, and it would likely place Watkins in or near the top 30 in vertical targets by a wide receiver at season's end. Increase the downfield passing pace -- as Buffalo almost certainly will once Watkins' rib injury fully heals -- and he could easily end up with a vertical target level in the top 20 or even top 10 by season's end.

[h=3]Week 1 performances that will continue[/h]

[h=3]Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints[/h]Cooks' work this preseason built his case for being the leading candidate for offensive rookie of the year. Seven receptions for 77 yards and a touchdown in his first regular-season game is a stat line that keeps that case going.

[h=3]Chris Johnson, RB, New York Jets[/h]Johnson was a RB1 in fantasy football last year (189 points, tied for eighth among RBs) despite tearing his meniscus in Week 3. He showcased his versatility in his initial game in a Jets uniform by tying for the team lead in receptions (5), finishing second on the club in yards from scrimmage (91) and racking up 14 fantasy points.

[h=3]Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers[/h]Bell's biggest issue in his rookie NFL campaign was a very low GBYPA total (5.8, ranked 44th out of 47 qualifying running backs). Getting a notable burst wasn't an issue against the Cleveland Browns, as Bell racked up a 9.9 GBYPA on nine good-blocking rushing plays.

[h=3]Week 1 performances that won't continue[/h]

[h=3]Steve Smith Sr., WR, Baltimore Ravens[/h]Fourteen of Smith's 17 fantasy points came on a scramble play where a Bengals linebacker and safety both lost track of him running downfield, and allowed him to get open for an 80-yard touchdown reception. That type of play won't happen very often, so it could be one of the few high points of Smith's 2014 season.

[h=3]Allen Hurns, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars[/h]It's difficult to knock someone who just had a storybook beginning to an NFL career, but Hurns got two touchdowns and 22 fantasy points in the first quarter of the Jaguars-Eagles contest in large part because Philadelphia seemingly forgot that its season started at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. Once the Eagles got their heads back into the game, Hurns tallied only one reception for nine yards. Hurns won't keep Cecil Shorts or Marqise Lee out of the starting lineup, so he'll be at best a No. 3 wide receiver on his own team.

[h=3]San Francisco 49ers D/ST[/h]It might be easier to believe in San Francisco's defense if Tony Romo were on its schedule every week. With a slate that has Chicago, Philadelphia, Denver and New Orleans on the docket in four of the next eight games, the odds are quite good the 49ers' paper-thin depth on defense is going to cause them problems on multiple occasions.

[h=3]Three waiver-wire pickups I'm making[/h]

[h=3]Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints (owned in 65.5 percent of ESPN leagues)[/h]It is incredible that after the aforementioned dominant preseason he is still owned in only about two-thirds of ESPN leagues. That ratio will be closer to three-thirds soon.

[h=3]Jake Locker, QB, Tennessee Titans (owned in 5.0 percent of ESPN leagues)[/h]Locker has shown an ability to post high-end QB2/low-end QB1 numbers in the past and racked up 19 points in Week 1. If he stays healthy, he could offer great depth or trade value.

[h=3]Houston Texans D/ST (owned in 41.9 percent of ESPN leagues)[/h]The Texans were a powerhouse D/ST in the past and could be on the way to that level again in 2014. A matchup against the Oakland Raiders could make Houston one of the best D/ST stream-start candidates in Week 2.

HacheMan · Sep 9, 2014

[h=1]Free-agent finds for Week 2[/h]By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Christopher Harris[/FONT] | ESPN.com

Waiver-wire news changes fast and furious throughout the week, as injuries and depth-chart shenanigans overtake us. So be sure to follow me on Twitter by clicking on the link next to my headshot at the bottom of the column, and I'll keep you updated as news warrants. Let's get to Week 2's best fantasy roster additions:
Standard ESPN League Finds
Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers (owned in 37.0 percent of ESPN leagues): I'm surprised how few folks drafted Benjamin this summer. I was skeptical about his hands and mental mistakes at Florida State, and wondered if he'd be ready to be an NFL contributor right away, but I still ranked him inside my top 50 WRs. If Week 1 is any indication, even that was too low. Benjamin saw eight targets and caught six of them, including a 26-yard TD where he simply outmuscled a defensive back on a jump ball in the end zone. The fact that Benjamin did this in his first NFL contest with Derek Anderson throwing him passes only adds to the feat.Cam Newton will return in Week 2, and Benjamin needs to be owned in every fantasy league on the planet.

Markus Wheaton, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (29.4 percent): Emmanuel Sanders had a really nice debut for theDenver Broncos. You know who does a terrific Sanders impression in Pittsburgh? Wheaton. An undersized, versatile weapon with great quickness, Wheaton had no trouble getting off the line no matter where he lined up Sunday, and he caught the two hurry-up passes that got the Steelers in position for the game-winning field goal. Antonio Brown is still the top dog in this receiving corps, but Wheaton is going to see a lot of targets. He, too, should be owned in all leagues.
Justin Forsett, RB, Baltimore Ravens(6.8 percent): The Ray Rice story is bigger than the NFL and certainly fantasy football, but my job here is to look at the Ravens' depth chart. In Week 1, Bernard Piercetechnically may have started, but Forsett was involved early and often, and when Pierce fumbled and was benched, Forsett did a nice job as Baltimore's lead back. Now, Forsett turns 28 in October and is undersized (5-foot-8, 197 pounds) to be a featured RB. It seems unlikely to me that Pierce -- who had never fumbled in a regular-season NFL game until Sunday -- will stay in the doghouse for long. He's the guy here who is built (6-foot, 230 pounds) like a feature back. That said, anyone who drafted Rice can take a chance on Forsett in advance of Thursday night's game.
Bobby Rainey, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1.6 percent): Here we go again! The undersized Rainey (5-8, 212) dominated Tampa's backfield touches after Doug Martin left Sunday's game with a leg injury, and as of this writing it's unclear whether Martin will miss more time. If he does, Rainey figures to be the most valued member of the Bucs' backfield. Realize, however, that Mike James (0.2 percent) is still in town, and in a game where Tampa isn't playing from behind, it's possible James -- who was pretty good last season until he broke a leg -- would be the early-down component in a platoon. Still, the jitterbugging Rainey got on a roll a few times in 2013 and scored seven TDs. He should at least be added by Martin owners.
Allen Hurns, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (19.8 percent): Let's be fair. Two of Hurns' first three catches in Week 1 (which all told went for 101 yards and two TDs) came as a result of horribly botched coverage by the Philadelphia Eagles. After that, Hurns didn't do a lot. But there's something to be said for a receiver who has is open frequently enough to see eight targets, indicating Chad Henne likes throwing to this undrafted rookie. Hurns is tall (6-3) but not big (195 pounds) and doesn't have blazing foot speed, so in this Jags offense, I find it hard to be too excited about him. There's some "Kevin Ogletree 2012" worry here. In fact, I preferMarqise Lee (8.4 percent), who saw nine targets Sunday. The fact remains, though, that withCecil Shorts struggling with a tight hamstring, there's potential for someone to be a consistent receiving threat here just through sheer dint of volume.
Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers (38.7 percent): I'll admit Gates looked slow in Monday night's late game against the Cardinals. He also had a terrible first-half drop. But those assuming Ladarius Green (10.1 percent) is set to take over as the Chargers' main weapon over the middle are disappointed: Gates had 10 targets Monday night, compared to Green's two. Gates is still a giant human, still has Philip Rivers' trust, and still figures to pick up some red-zone TDs this season. He's not an elite fantasy option anymore, but if you're worried about the health of Jordan Cameron or Jordan Reed, see if Gates is available in your league.
Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns (6.0 percent): No, as of this writing I have no inside knowledge about whether Gordon's suspension (or the suspensions of Wes Welker and Orlando Scandrick) will be lifted due to a possible change in the NFL's drug policy. But Welker (rightly) is already owned in all leagues, and the same should be said of Gordon, fantasy's No. 1 wideout in '13. Simply put, he's worth a bench spot until the legal wrangling shakes out. He's that good.
Deeper League Finds
Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, Ravens (0.3 percent): In addition to Forsett and Pierce, Taliaferro is the other potential option in the Baltimore backfield. The rookie out of Coastal Carolina is a big kid (about Pierce's size) who barely played in Week 1. But if the team is now disenchanted with Pierce because of his fumble Sunday or for other reasons, Taliaferro could get a chance. To be fair, though, a Taliaferro/Forsett time share wouldn't be all that alluring for fantasy. At the moment, consider the rookie mainly as deeper-league fodder.

Jake Locker, QB, Tennessee Titans (7.0 percent): Locker took advantage of a decimatedKansas City Chiefs defense in Week 1, and played well in coach Ken Whisenhunt's conservative passing attack: 22-of-33 for 266 yards and 2 TDs, plus six carries for 14 yards. He still showed shaky pocket awareness at times, and he still takes too many hits, leading to the strong chance that he'll get hurt again at some point this season. But in the meantime, he's better than some of the other middling options you might think about starting in a two-QB league.

Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns (3.8 percent): As of this writing, the severity of Ben Tate's knee injury was unclear, and certainly whatever value Crowell has in fantasy is tied to Tate. Terrance West(who's owned in most leagues) got more work than Crowell Sunday: 16 carries for 100 yards for West, five carries for 32 yards and two red-zone TDs for Crowell. I thought West looked decent, though he doesn't seem to be a particularly sudden athlete. If he has space, he can get up to speed and make a nice play. Crowell, on the other hand, seemed to surprise the Steelers' defense with his acceleration. We've always known Crowell has great talent; he was a track hero and five-star recruit at Georgia before being expelled as a freshman. But maturity and personality are definitely question marks, which implies that West may stay ahead of Crowell for the time being. Still, deep-leaguers should note that guys with this much raw ability don't often see ownership numbers this low.Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns (9.2 percent): You know Baby Hawk's deal by now. He's mostly a slot receiver, and at 5-7 and 180 pounds, he isn't exactly a "jump ball" guy. As a result, his weekly upside is limited because it's so tied to volume. It's not that Hawkins never makes a play down the field -- he made a couple on Sunday -- but rather that he's not much of a breakaway or red-zone threat. However, if you're in a deeper PPR league, Hawkins is a name to know. He can be a steadying influence if the rest of your lineup is hit-and-miss.
Harry Douglas, WR, Atlanta Falcons (2.8 percent): Douglas isn't quite as small as Hawkins, but he fills the same role in Atlanta's offense: slot weapon. With Julio Jones and Roddy Whitearound, Douglas battles everyone else for table scraps, but when I saw White limp off the field near the end of the first half Sunday, my mind flashed to Douglas potentially as Matt Ryan's No. 2 wideout. (White wound up being OK.) Deep-leaguers can consider rostering Douglas, who could -- in the absence of Tony Gonzalez -- establish deeper PPR value as a player who catches six to eight passes every week.
Robert Woods, WR, Buffalo Bills (1.5 percent): Woods got lost in the shuffle this summer as the Bills drafted Sammy Watkins and traded for Mike Williams. But Sunday, Woods played ahead of Williams in two-WR sets and wound up with four grabs for 78 yards, including perhaps the most athletic catch any man made all day, on a ball so far over his head it seemed uncatchable. It will take more than one solid, game-managing performance from EJ Manuel to earn my trust, but with Watkins potentially battling his rib problems for a while, Woods does have a chance to be involved on a weekly basis.
Dwayne Allen, TE, Indianapolis Colts (7.8 percent): Fantasy owners aren't relying on either Colts' TE yet, and with good reason. For all the two-TE formations the team uses, neither Allen nor Coby Fleener (12.8 percent) has transformed into a consistent performer. My vote for Allen here isn't so much about Week 1 (Fleener out-targeted him 8 to 5, though Allen did score a 41-yard TD late) as it is my assessment of Fleener, who just keeps making mistakes. He gets open a fair amount, but he just seems to drop the ball an awful lot. Allen is the in-line blocker in Indy, but he's also a deceptively fluid player in space. My hope in a deeper league would be that eventually Andrew Luck sees what I see, and transitions to using Allen more.

HacheMan · Sep 10, 2014

[h=1]NFC East teams affect Week 2 rankings

[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Eric Karabell[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

How bad is most of the NFC East and what does it mean for fantasy football owners? Well, it certainly wasn't pretty for the [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Washington Redskins[/FONT], [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Dallas Cowboys[/FONT] and [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]New York Giants[/FONT] in Week 1, as they looked just terrible on both sides of the ball in losing their openers. It's one game, so nobody should go dropping valuable players, but unless these division foes are facing each other, is it a big deal for us? The [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Week 2 staff rankings[/FONT] seem to show the concern we have about the three seemingly awful teams, none of which is facing each other this weekend.

It's not only worry about quarterbacks[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Tony Romo[/FONT], [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Robert Griffin III[/FONT] and [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Eli Manning[/FONT] -- the latter is completely off the radar at this point -- but their weapons as well. For Week 2, I ranked Romo largely where I would have anyway, perhaps a spot or two worse, based on the fact he didn't look completely healthy Sunday, but I saw[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Dez Bryant[/FONT] traded already in one of my leagues for less than value, and from my[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Wednesday chat session[/FONT] it was implied from myriad people that tight end [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Jason Witten[/FONT] has such limited value he should be cut. From one game? Come on! Dallas isn't facing San Francisco this week. I really expect this offense to click, even against a [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Tennessee Titans[/FONT]team that looked great Sunday, and I was the only ranker to view [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]DeMarco Murray[/FONT] as a top-10 option.It's worse for the Washington and New York teams. A week ago Victor Cruz was deemed the No. 14 wide receiver for an enticing road contest in Detroit. Cruz caught 2 of 6 occasionally erratically thrown Manning passes for 24 yards in the loss. This week, two of my colleagues rank him outside the top-30 wide receivers for a home game with Arizona. Is that fair? We often debate which comes first and foremost for value purposes, the recklessness of a quarterback or the sheer talent of a receiver, but I left Cruz in my top 20 because I don't blame him, too. The interceptions don’t get charged to him, and even if Manning is shot, as he appeared to be last season, Cruz was nearly a top-25 wide receiver despite missing games and not scoring a touchdown after Week 4. I view it as a fluke. He's still good. I wouldn't go selling Cruz for Travis Kelce or Isaiah Crowell yet. Or ever.
I also have to assume Jay Gruden and Washington alters the game plan just a little, allowing its gimpy quarterback to throw deep on occasion, but it doesn't mean I have to like DeSean Jackson. He caught several passes behind the line of scrimmage in Week 1, when the best way to enjoy his work is as a deep threat. We like the targets Jackson and Pierre Garcon saw, but not the yards in comparison. I ranked Garcon as a safe WR2 again, and Jackson a bit worse than others because I just don't trust the situation. The loss of tight end Jordan Reed also shouldn't be overlooked; we didn't rank him because he's not expected to play this week through a mild hamstring injury, but people are going to be dropping him left and right. What happens when Washington faces Dallas? Aren't we going to be lining up for all options?
My general advice to all is think twice, or three times, before dropping any player this week. I know how much we all love Jaguars free-agent receiver Allen Hurns but, really, Cruz is going to be better. Witten is going to be fine. Jackson is also going to get some semblance of numbers, just not the 2013 ones. And really, as you'll see in the next few paragraphs, what I take away most about the NFC East teams is that their awful defenses will play a larger role in shaping fantasy production, so get on board with the matchups. And then next week, the NFC East teams start meeting one another, so batter up!
Quarterback: I didn't rank Carolina Panthers starter Cam Newton as a fantasy starter in 10- or 12-team formats, but I'm not particularly worried about him, per se. I just think Carson Palmer and Jake Locker have tremendous matchups against two brutal NFC East defenses. What if Newton doesn't run, just like RGIII isn't? I'm just being cautious. … Yeah, for multi-QB leagues I would consider Brian Hoyer of Cleveland. It's amazing how quickly a narrative can alter. He was supposed to be benched at halftime and then he nearly engineered a comeback win. The Saints appear ripe to be thrown on, though obviously the Browns don't have the same weapons the Atlanta Falcons do, not until Josh Gordon is reinstated (though I doubt it happens this week, or any week) . . . Don't overthink quarterback. I'm not saying blindly play your studs, but we really didn't learn very much in Week 1 that we didn't already know.

Running back: I ranked both Reggie Bush and Joique Bell better than everyone else for a road game in Carolina. Have I lost my mind? Or do I think the Lions can do damage even against a top defense? I'll submit that Bush and Bell are closer in value than I originally believed, but both are flex options for me. Good ones . . . I wouldn't even consider an Oakland running back this week . . . I see I am a bigger Justin Forsett fan than most. Still not a clear flex choice, though . . . I see I am a bigger Shonn Greene fan than most, as well. The matchup, ba-by! . . . Fans in the chat room seem awfully concerned about the Jaguars' Toby Gerhart, but three of us think he's an RB2. There's volume there for touches, and again, the NFC East matchup is right. Jacksonville just was able to exploit the passing game as well with Hurns last week. They should have relied more on Gerhart . . . I want to give the Rams' Zac Stacy at least another week before panicking, and then another week after that . . . As for off-radar options, I'm not giving up onStevan Ridley, either. Shane Vereen is the Patriots' running back to own, but I still see Ridley earning more carries.

Wide receiver: The Chiefs didn't look so great defensively to me in Week 1, so Denver'sEmmanuel Sanders gets a top-10 slot . . . We're all back on the Vincent Jackson bandwagon . . . We all rank Arizona's Michael Floyd better than Larry Fitzgerald now, but isn't that in some part due to Fitzgerald dealing with knee woes? Still, I wouldn't rule him out as a flex choice or presume the hierarchy has permanently changed . . . Clearly I don't assume that rookiesBrandin Cooks and Kelvin Benjamin do that again. Rookies are notoriously inconsistent . . . I don't really understand the low ranks on T.Y. Hilton. Can't Philly be thrown on? Isn't Andrew Luck awesome? I don't view much of what I saw on the Indy WR hierarchy from a game in Denver as reason for future concern . . . Sorry, I need to see more on Percy Harvin before exalting him to must-start status . . . Perhaps I'm the only one viewing Julian Edelman as a WR2 each week . . . This is the last week you'll be able to get Keenan Allen on the cheap. He and Philip Rivers should have issues with the Seattle defense, but after this week, get on board.

HacheMan · Sep 10, 2014

[h=1]Key stat trends after Week 1[/h][h=3]What can you make of target stats, long runs, red zone looks in season opener?[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Ken Daube[/FONT] | Special to ESPN.com

Welcome to the 2014-15 version of Trendspotting, a unique fantasy football advice column that, based on data provided by ESPN Stats & Information, aims to look at key performance indicators and other factors that impact production rather than the end-result fantasy point totals.For those familiar with this column: welcome back. For those of you finding this column for the first time, know that the goal of this column is not always to provide my opinion on why Player A is better than Player B, but rather to give you more information so you can make appropriate changes in player valuations.
Trendspotting initially will focus on the following metrics: the number of targets that top receiving options are getting, the number of carries that running backs are receiving near the opponent's goal line, and the number of times a running back breaks a run for more than 10 yards. As the season progresses, the column can morph into other statistical analysis, and I'd love to involve readers in selecting which other stats they'd like to see -- so if you have a request, post it in the comments section below and we'll see what can be done.
[h=3]On-target[/h]Receiving yardage is the most variable form of yardage, which makes sense because so much of it is dependent on where the quarterback elects to throw the ball. Because of this, variations in the number of times a player is targeted by his quarterback can greatly change a player's value. So while your receiver may have scored 10 fantasy points in Week 1, you need to know whether it's reasonable to expect that he can repeat that type of performance on a routine basis. If he had one target that he turned into a 40-yard touchdown, you need to realize that he was one quarterback decision away from posting a goose egg. Conversely, if your wideout had 12 targets and finished with 108 receiving yards, his prospects for consistent fantasy production are significantly greater. In the chart below, you'll see all the players who received eight or more targets in Week 1, and how many of those targets were on plays that began in the red zone.
Note: Targets are not an official NFL statistic. Based on the methodology that stat services use, the number of targets listed may be different than target values listed elsewhere. The philosophy of ESPN Stats & Information is to count a target when the analyst thinks the pass was actually intended for the player. Therefore, if a quarterback is obviously throwing a ball away, the analyst will not record a target for that pass. This gives a truer representation of what a target is -- i.e., a pass thrown to a particular player with the intent for that player to catch the ball -- and therefore should be more helpful to the fantasy community.
[h=4]Week 1 Targets Report[/h]

Player	Targets	Red Zone Targets
Steve Smith	15	1
Dennis Pitta	15	2
Jordy Nelson	14	2
Reggie Wayne	13	1
Donnie Avery	13	1
Rob Gronkowski	12	1
Brandon Marshall	12	2
T.Y. Hilton	11	1
Pierre Garcon	11	0
Mike Wallace	11	2
Greg Olsen	11	2
Demaryius Thomas	11	4
Calvin Johnson	11	4
Martellus Bennett	10	1
Jimmy Graham	10	1
Jeremy Maclin	10	1
Giovani Bernard	10	0
Antonio Gates	10	0
Andrew Hawkins	10	1
Vincent Jackson	9	0
Randall Cobb	9	2
Matt Forte	9	0
Marqise Lee	9	1
Marcedes Lewis	9	0
Kenbrell Thompkins	9	1
Keenan Allen	9	1
Julio Jones	9	0
Emmanuel Sanders	9	1
Brian Quick	9	0
Andre Johnson	9	0
Shane Vereen	8	0
Riley Cooper	8	1
Mike Evans	8	1
Marques Colston	8	1
Larry Donnell	8	2
Kelvin Benjamin	8	0
Justin Hunter	8	1
Julius Thomas	8	2
Julian Edelman	8	1
Jared Cook	8	0
Jacoby Jones	8	0
DeSean Jackson	8	0
Coby Fleener	8	1
Brandon Myers	8	0
Brandin Cooks	8	3
Anquan Boldin	8	0
Allen Hurns	8	0
A.J. Green	8	1

[h=3]Fantasy insights based on Week 1[/h]While people may be getting excited about Steve Smith's and Dennis Pitta's high target numbers, it's important to realize that Joe Flacco attempted an amazing 62 passes. That tied his career high, the 2013 season opener when Flacco's Baltimore Ravens got blown out by theDenver Broncos 49-27. Don't anticipate the continuation of that many chances for either player.
When the first two receptions of your NFL career go for touchdowns, you are going to pop on the fantasy radar quickly. While most don't know much more about Allen Hurns other than that, do know that Hurns set quite a number of receiving records at the University of Miami. For reference, other receivers that attended Miami include Santana Moss, Reggie Wayne, Michael Irvin and Andre Johnson. That's some pretty good company, and reports during training camp indicated that the Jacksonville Jaguars thought they had a diamond in the rough with Hurns, so there may just be something here.
While some thought the reuniting of Kenny Britt and Jeff Fisher might mean a resurgence from the purportedly healthy Britt, Brian Quick appears to be the No. 1 receiving option for the St. Louis Rams. Quick played more snaps (45) than Britt (38) and Tavon Austin (29) and also ran more routes (23) than both the Britt and Austin (19 each). Quick looks like the guy to own from that trio.
At first glance, T.Y. Hilton's opportunities don't appear to have been significantly affected by the return of Reggie Wayne. But similar to Flacco, Andrew Luck threw an abnormally high number of passes in Week 1. In fact, the 53 passes Luck attempted Sunday were just two short of his career high and six more than last season high game.
While Cordarrelle Patterson made the highlight reel on Sunday for the impact he had in the rushing game, those plays masked his relatively low usage in the passing attack. Patterson was targeted only four times, which resulted in just three catches for 26 yards. Greg Jennings led the Minnesota Vikings with seven targets on the day, and Kyle Rudolph (4 targets), Jarius Wright (3) and Adrian Peterson (3) received similar receiving opportunities as Patterson. Make no doubt about it, Patterson is electric, but he will not be a consistent fantasy performer unless he receives more targets in future games.
If you want to know how much Rob Gronkowski means to Tom Brady, consider this: Gronkowski ran 20 routes on Sunday and was targeted 12 times. Since the start of the 2010 season, only three players (Gronkowski, Brandon Marshall and Michael Crabtree) have been targeted on at least 60 percent of their routes during a game in which they ran at least 20 routes. Sunday marked Gronkowski's second time achieving that metric. As Gronkowski gets re-acclimated to the New England Patriots offense, look for him to be a dominant tight end soon.
[h=3]Big plays and up close[/h]Nine NFL players had three rushes that gained 10 or more yards: Terrance West (3), Marshawn Lynch (3), Le'Veon Bell (3), Knowshon Moreno (3), Justin Forsett (3), DeMarco Murray (3), Cordarrelle Patterson (3), Chris Johnson (3) and Adrian Peterson (3). No runner in the NFL had four or more such rushes.
Meanwhile, there were six players who had at least two carries from the opponent's 5-yard line or closer: Rashad Jennings (3), Shane Vereen (2), Montee Ball (2), Mark Ingram (2), Khiry Robinson (2) and EJ Manuel (2). Every one of those players scored at least one rushing touchdown.
Bell managed just 13 rushes that gained 10 yards or more last year. If the three such runs this week are any indication, he will significantly improve upon the 3.5 yards per carry he average last year.
Last season, Johnson only managed three games in which he had three or more rushes that went for 10 yards or more. Chris Ivory will be a part of the New York Jets' offense, but Johnson's production is pointing in the right direction.
Those hoping for a rebound from Stevan Ridley should be discouraged at the sight of Vereen receiving two rushing attempts near the goal line. Of course, Ridley was targeted twice and finished with two receptions, which is something that his owners probably weren't counting on.
Until next week, thanks for reading.

HacheMan · Sep 10, 2014

[h=1]Week 2 picks for salary-cap games[/h][h=3]Locker among those to target, Brady among those to avoid in Week 2[/h]
By Scott Kacsmar | Football Outsiders

We love Week 1 of the NFL season, because the seven-month guessing game is replaced with real results. We also hate Week 1 because of the instant overreaction to one data point.
This especially happens in salary-cap fantasy football leagues, when people are ready to break the bank for one breakout game or drop a stud after a disappointing afternoon.
Flocking to Devin Hester as a viable fantasy option because he had 99 receiving yards (second most in his 124-game career) is fool's gold. He's a No. 4 wide receiver who had a productive day with Matt Ryan throwing for a career-high 448 yards. That's not sustainable. The better takeaway from that game is New Orleans rookie Brandin Cooks (seven receptions for 77 yards and a touchdown) is for real this season, and he should be sought after as one of Drew Brees' top targets.
On the other end of the spectrum, Jamaal Charles had only seven carries for 19 yards in Week 1. This doesn't mean he's a worse option than Justin Forsett now. Charles will command a high salary in fantasy because he is an elite talent. In 2012, he rushed for 3 yards against Buffalo but had 233 the following week. Later that year, he had 10 yards against Oakland but 226 in his next game. The Chiefs as a team had a lousy Week 1, but things will get better for Charles. Patience is key.
Here are the best and worst fantasy matchups in salary-cap leagues for Week 2:
(Note: references to defensive rankings are based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, explained here.)
[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h][h=4]Players With Favorable Matchups[/h]

Pos	Team	Name	+/- Fan Pts
QB	TEN	Jake Locker	+4
QB	ARI	Carson Palmer	+3
QB	TB	Josh McCown	+3
RB	CIN	Giovani Bernard	+3
RB	NYJ	Chris Johnson	+2
RB	OAK	Maurice Jones-Drew	+2
RB	NYJ	Chris Ivory	+1
RB	TB	Doug Martin	+1
WR	TB	Vincent Jackson	+1
WR	TEN	Kendall Wright	+1
WR	ARI	Michael Floyd	+1
RB	BUF	C.J. Spiller	+1
QB	CIN	Andy Dalton	+1
QB	SEA	Russell Wilson	+1
QB	PIT	Ben Roethlisberger	+1
QB	PHI	Nick Foles	+1
WR	NO	Marques Colston	+1
RB	SF	Frank Gore	+1
WR	DEN	Emmanuel Sanders	+1
WR	ARI	Larry Fitzgerald	+1
TE	CLE	Jordan Cameron	+1
WR	NO	Brandin Cooks	+1
RB	BUF	Fred Jackson	+1
RB	ATL	Steven Jackson	+1
WR	SD	Malcom Floyd	+1
WR	CLE	Andrew Hawkins	+1
TE	TEN	Delanie Walker	+1
RB	PHI	Darren Sproles	+1
RB	ATL	Jacquizz Rodgers	+1
WR	TB	Mike Evans	+1

Jake Locker (plus-4 points)
Locker finished sixth in fantasy points among quarterbacks in Week 1. Perhaps he's finally turned the corner, but even if he hasn't he gets the Dallas defense at home this week. Don't be fooled by San Francisco taking the foot off the pedal last week. Dallas had the second-worst defensive DVOA of the week, and this is also why Locker's top receiving threats (especially Kendall Wright) are worth a play this week.
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Carson Palmer (plus-3 points)
If you watched the "Monday Night Football" doubleheader, you saw a lousy Giants defense and a rather nimble Palmer have a productive day. The two meet this week, and Palmer's one of the best options at quarterback with a few of the usual suspects playing better defenses. He'll get Larry Fitzgerald more involved on Sunday.
Matthew Stafford (minus-4 points)
Stafford should be an elite fantasy player after one of the best games of his career, right? The problem is that playing the Panthers' defense (ranked No. 1 in Week 1) in Carolina will be a far tougher task, and history shows Stafford hasn't had much success in those settings. This is the "lower your expectations" pick of the week. Adjust spending accordingly.
Tom Brady (minus-4 points)
You'll probably start Brady in standard leagues with the hope he bounces back (as he usually does), but don't even bother in a salary-cap league where you'll get more of a bargain withRyan Fitzpatrick (at Oakland) or Andy Dalton(home versus Atlanta). Brady struggled mightily against Miami's pass rush and will now face the Vikings, who were strong rushing the passer in Mike Zimmer's coaching debut.
Bargain buyer beware: Josh McCown (plus-3 points)
Our limited sample of the 2014 Rams suggests a struggling defense, which is why McCown has a favorable plus-matchup. But if you watched him play in Week 1, it's hard to justify giving him a shot this week. He made dreadful decisions against what could be a top defense in Carolina, but if the Rams get the pressure their front seven is capable of, this could be another tough day for McCown. There are better options available, including Joe Flacco on Thursday night.
[h=3]Running backs[/h][h=4]Players With Unfavorable Matchups[/h]

Pos	Team	Name	+/- Fan Pts
QB	DET	Matthew Stafford	-4
QB	SD	Philip Rivers	-4
QB	WAS	Robert Griffin	-4
QB	NE	Tom Brady	-4
QB	DAL	Tony Romo	-4
RB	DAL	DeMarco Murray	-3
RB	GB	Eddie Lacy	-3
RB	NYG	Rashad Jennings	-2
RB	JAC	Toby Gerhart	-2
RB	IND	Trent Richardson	-2
RB	CAR	DeAngelo Williams	-2
RB	DEN	Montee Ball	-2
RB	PIT	Le'Veon Bell	-1
QB	CHI	Jay Cutler	-1
QB	BUF	EJ Manuel	-1
RB	IND	Ahmad Bradshaw	-1
RB	WAS	Alfred Morris	-1
QB	MIN	Matt Cassel	-1
QB	HOU	Ryan Fitzpatrick	-1
RB	ARI	Andre Ellington	-1
QB	KC	Alex Smith	-1
QB	CAR	Cam Newton	-1
RB	STL	Zac Stacy	-1
RB	PIT	LeGarrette Blount	-1

Giovani Bernard (plus-3 points)
The Bengals scored only one touchdown last week but moved the ball well. Atlanta had a tough time on defense, including three rushing touchdowns allowed. Bernard should find the end zone this week and is even a stronger play in PPR leagues.
Bargain buyer beware: Chris Johnson (plus-2 points)
It was a productive Week 1 outing for Johnson, who doesn't command the top-dollar amount he used to in fantasy. However, be very cautious in playing him this week given the simple fact Green Bay is not Oakland. The Packers will look to correct their dismal performance in Seattle and should be much more productive on the scoreboard. That will limit the Jets' ability to run the ball, and Chris Ivory will cut into Johnson's touches, too.
Rashad Jennings (minus-2 points)
The Giants are clearly struggling on offense, but Jennings salvaged an OK debut in fantasy with a touchdown and some receiving points. This week he'll face the Cardinals, who ranked second against the run in Week 1, stifling the trio of San Diego backs.
[h=3]Wide receivers[/h]Andrew Hawkins and the Saints (plus-1 point)
Someone has to replace Josh Gordon's production, right? Hawkins is a sneaky-good play for dirt cheap this week with the Browns playing another team (Saints) likely to jump out to a big lead. Hawkins had eight catches for 87 yards last week while the Saints, lacking good cornerbacks, allowed four Atlanta wideouts each to gain at least 69 yards.
Of course, New Orleans' top two wide receivers, Marques Colston and Brandin Cooks, should also have a field day against a Cleveland secondary that struggled with covering and tackling Pittsburgh's receivers last week.
[h=3]Tight ends[/h]Delanie Walker (plus-1 point)
Walker's been a solid player for the Titans and hauled in a touchdown last week. Like it was for Arizona's defense in 2013, it may be a recurring theme this season to pick the tight end playing Dallas due to deficiencies at linebacker and safety.
[h=3]Elite players[/h]These are the elite fantasy players for Week 2 not listed in the above tables. You will want to pursue these players at their typical cost, regardless of this week's matchup.
[h=4]Week 2 Projections for Elite Players[/h]

Pos	Team	Name	Proj	Pos	Team	Name	Proj
QB	DEN	Peyton Manning	+5	WR	DEN	Demaryius Thomas	+1
QB	NO	Drew Brees	+5	WR	CIN	A.J. Green	+1
QB	IND	Andrew Luck	0	WR	PIT	Antonio Brown	+1
QB	GB	Aaron Rodgers	0	WR	CHI	Brandon Marshall	0
QB	ATL	Matt Ryan	-1	WR	ATL	Julio Jones	0
RB	CHI	Matt Forte	+3	WR	DAL	Dez Bryant	-1
RB	MIN	Adrian Peterson	+3	WR	DET	Calvin Johnson	-1
RB	PHI	LeSean McCoy	+1	TE	DEN	Julius Thomas	+1
RB	KC	Jamaal Charles	0	TE	NO	Jimmy Graham	+1
RB	SEA	Marshawn Lynch	-1	TE	SF	Vernon Davis	0

Aaron Rodgers returns to his usual spot since he's done dealing with Seattle. Ryan will regress some this week on the road against a solid defense, but he looked great in Week 1 with a full complement of healthy receivers. Andrew Luck may not last the season here, but it's not like the Colts are going to suddenly find a running game. He had the third-most fantasy points at his position in Week 1.
Demaryius Thomas and Charles had rough openers, but the AFC West showdown in Denver should bring out their best. Vernon Davis has another strong matchup this week against Chicago after two scores in Dallas.

HacheMan · Sep 10, 2014

[h=1]32 fantasy tips to win in Week 2[/h][h=3]Positive signs for Harvin, Boykin, Spiller; plus, who's getting red zone looks?[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Mike Clay[/FONT] | Pro Football Focus

elow are 32 notes covering each of the league's 32 teams. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions and come up with a win in Week 2. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
1. Percy Harvin shined in Seattle's opening night win against Green Bay, but his relatively low snap total (40) has many concerned about his fantasy upside. Don't fret. Harvin was on the field for 23 of the team's 31 first-half snaps. With the game well in hand, he sat out on all but nine of the final 25 plays. Involved as both a receiver and rusher, Harvin will approach 10 touches every week. He's a solid WR2 option in PPR.
2. Following a zero-target performance in Green Bay's opener, Jarrett Boykin is going to end up on a lot of waiver wires this week. It's your best chance to buy low. Boykin ran 34 routes in the game, which was only seven behind Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. Boykin's issue was that he was lined up opposite Richard Sherman on all but two of his snaps. This was a strategic plan by Green Bay to position its third-best wideout opposite Sherman and ignore that side of the field. The Packers paced the NFL in usage of the "11" personnel package -- three wide receivers, one running back and one tight end -- during the 2014 preseason and were third in the category last season. Assuming he holds off second-round rookie Davante Adams, Boykin will produce WR4 numbers -- at least.

(Note: I've written at length about opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD) in the past. If you're new to the stat, be sure to check out our introduction to rushing and receiving OTD. The OTD metric weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity.)
3. Targeted three consecutive times in the end zone, Demaryius Thomas (1.8) is unsurprisingly No. 1 in receiving OTD through one week. What's truly interesting here is that Thomas managed only 11 end zone targets all of last season. With Eric Decker gone, there are more goal-line looks available for other Denver stars. Thomas has a real shot to pace all wideouts in fantasy points.
4. Calvin Johnson (1.5), Joseph Fauria (1.4), Brandin Cooks (1.3) and Terrance Williams (1.3) round out the top five in receiving OTD through one week. Cooks is the most intriguing name here, as he's the smallest of the Saints regulars and wasn't expected to see many targets near the goal line. He saw one end zone target and two others within 2 yards of pay dirt. Cooks has WR2 upside even after Kenny Stills returns.
5. Speaking of the Saints, they had a pair of running backs in the top five in rushing OTD. Khiry Robinson (0.9) scored from 2 yards out and had another carry from the Falcons' 1-yard line.Mark Ingram (0.8) scored twice from 3 yards out.
6. Through one week, Rashad Jennings (1.6) easily paces all players in rushing OTD. Jennings did not defer goal-line carries to rookie Andre Williams, instead racking up three carries within 2 yards of the Detroit Lions' end zone. Jennings is a solid RB2 option.
7. Andrew Luck (0.9), Knowshon Moreno (0.8) and Shane Vereen (0.8) are all surprisingly inside the top six in rushing OTD through one week. Moreno had only one carry inside the opponent's 5-yard line -- a 4-yard touchdown -- but did his damage with volume (24 carries). Vereen scored from 2 yards out and added two additional carries within 6 yards of the end zone. Jennings, Robinson, Ingram, Vereen and Montee Ball were the only players with more than one carry within 5 yards of the end zone.

8. Playing from behind most of the afternoon, the Atlanta Falcons went a bit over the top in terms of wide receiver usage. They had three-plus wideouts on the field an absurd 93 percent of the time, and added a fourth on a league-high 29 percent of their plays. This is great news for Harry Douglas, who ran only two fewer routes than Julio Jonesand Roddy White. Devin Hester caught five passes for 99 yards, but only ran what figures to be a season-high 19 routes. Douglas is on the WR4 radar, but Hester should be ignored on waivers.
9. The hot name this week is Allen Hurns. With Cecil Shorts III sidelined, the undrafted rookie caught four of his eight targets for 110 yards and two scores. Hurns has been excellent throughout the offseason, and has seemingly forced his way into a prominent role in Jacksonville. There's still a chance Hurns returns to a reserve role, but the better bet is that he, Shorts and Marqise Lee dominate three-wide sets going forward. Hurns is a must-stash player, but a risky start for the time being.
10. During the preseason, the Cincinnati Bengals heavily featured Giovani Bernard when the first-team offense was on the field. Week 1 of the regular season was more of the same. Bernard worked 58 snaps, which allowed him 14 carries and eight targets. Backup Jeremy Hillcarried the ball four times on only 10 snaps. This isn't a committee; it's Bernard's backfield.
11. One of the bigger disappointments of Week 1 was Bernard Pierce's complete face-plant. He played only eight snaps, racking up 14 yards on six carries before being benched for fumbling. Pierce is better than change-of-pace back Justin Forsett, and won't be too expensive to acquire after his Week 1 struggles.
12. Week 1 should provide a hint of optimism for those who took a shot on C.J. Spiller. Unsurprisingly ahead of Fred Jackson as Buffalo's lead back, Spiller racked up 15 carries and caught all three of his targets. Jackson played nine fewer snaps, ran it only seven times, and managed one fewer pass route than Spiller. Spiller didn't see any goal-line work, but note that Jackson and Anthony Dixon combined for only one carry inside the opponent's 10-yard line.
13. Geno Smith was extremely efficient in the New York Jets' season opener, completing 24 of 29 passes (86 percent) for 224 yards. That's the good news. The bad news is that Smith's conservatism makes Alex Smith look like Johnny Manziel. Geno's 4.4 average depth of throw was easily lowest among all quarterbacks in Week 1. In fact, the 4.4 aDOT would've been lowest in the league by 2.5 yards last season. Smith's improved play is an indicator of a possible breakout, but he won't be a fantasy standout unless he can get the ball downfield.
14. Last season, Le'Veon Bell carried the ball or was targeted while 10 or more yards away from the opponent's end zone 275 times. He converted none of them into touchdowns. In Pittsburgh's Week 1 game against Cleveland, Bell put that stat to bed with an impressive 38-yard tote to pay dirt. He also put to bed any concern about a committee with LeGarrette Blount. Bell racked up 21 carries and seven targets on 58 snaps. Blount played only five snaps.
15. Markus Wheaton put up one of the most impressive stat lines in the league this week. Debuting as an every-down player in Pittsburgh, Wheaton caught six of his seven targets for 97 yards despite dealing with one of the league's highest average depth of target marks (19.1). Wheaton caught every ball thrown his way within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage, and was 1-of-2 on deep balls. Wheaton will consistently produce WR3 numbers all year long.

16. DeSean Jackson's Week 1 usage was quite interesting. He impressed by catching all eight of his targets for 62 yards, but did all of his damage near the line of scrimmage. Jackson's 2.2 average depth of target was lowest among all qualified wideouts. None of the targets came beyond 11 yards downfield, and three were behind the line of scrimmage. Jackson's career-low aDOT is 13.0, so we can safely expect more downfield looks.
17. As preseason usage suggested,Tennessee Titans rookie back Bishop Sankey is buried on the team's depth chart. Sankey was nowhere to be found during the team's first 45 offensive snaps, appearing for only two snaps once Tennessee went up 20-3, and again later in fourth-quarter "garbage time." Sankey is the most talented back on Tennessee's roster, but he's not worth starting in fantasy until he moves ahead of Shonn Greene, Dexter McCluster and evenLeon Washington.
18. Travis Kelce played well in his NFL debut, hauling in three of his five targets for 49 yards. Going forward, however, there are obvious concerns. Kelce was clearly behind starting tight end Anthony Fasano and ran only 15 of a possible 46 pass routes. And that was with Dwayne Bowe and De'Anthony Thomas out of the lineup. Kelce is worth a stash in leagues with deep benches, but he's not TE1 material just yet.
19. With most of the fantasy world monitoring the running back competition in Miami, the battle for the team's primary slot receiver job is being overlooked. Brandon Gibson put up WR3 numbers in this role last season, but is already ceding the job to 2014 second-round pick Jarvis Landry. It took only five snaps for the rookie to get on the field and he ended up working 31 total -- only five fewer than Gibson. Don't add Landry just yet, but monitor his progress in all formats.
20. James Jones came off the board of most fantasy drafts as a WR4 or WR5 option. Through one week, it appears Jones may be best suited for the waiver wire. The ex-Packers standout was clearly No. 3 in line at wideout, running only 22 of a possible 36 pass routes. Rod Streater(36 routes) and Denarius Moore (35) were the every-down receivers.
21. The St. Louis Rams' tailback situation is already causing headaches, and Week 1 only added to the concern that Zac Stacy will not be a feature back. With the game still in hand, Stacy did play 27 of the team's first 51 snaps, but he managed only 12 touches on the day.Benjamin Cunningham, meanwhile, was mixed in throughout the game and worked 15 of the final 19 snaps. Adding to the concern is Tavon Austin's role as a tailback. Austin lined up at running back on six of his first 12 snaps. On all six occasions, both Stacy and Cunningham were off the field.
22. My "safe breakout" pick for 2014, Cordarrelle Patterson, managed only three catches for 26 yards in Minnesota's opener. Of course, he bailed out his owners by racking up 102 yards and a touchdown on three carries. We obviously can't expect that rushing production every week, but we can expect Minnesota to call more than 25 passes most weeks. Patterson ran all but one possible pass route in the game. He remains a WR2 with big upside.

23. The San Francisco 49ers like to run the ball and, same as last year, figure to finish around league average in offensive scoring. So there should be some concern that all of their pass-catchers won't live up to their average draft position. Michael Crabtree did, in fact, disappoint in Week 1, catching only two passes for 25 yards. Dealing with a calf injury, he was on the field for 37 of the team's first 43 snaps, but sat out the final 15 with the game well in hand. Crabtree had an excuse in Week 1, but his return to full health will just mean less, or at least wildly inconsistent, production from Vernon Davis andAnquan Boldin.
24. If Week 1 is a sign of things to come, I will have been completely wrong in my projection that Lance Dunbar would play a big offensive role for Dallas. Dunbar played only four snaps against San Francisco, whereas DeMarco Murray was in for all but nine of the team's 73 offensive plays. Dallas did show a commitment to the run early, however, which suggests there will be additional opportunities for Dunbar in more competitive games.
25. Following a 26-yard reception early on in his NFL debut, Austin Seferian-Jenkins had the look of a guy about to enter the weekly TE1 conversation. The rookie played each of the team's first 11 snaps before a knee injury limited him to only nine the rest of the way. Seferian-Jenkins' status is up in the air for Week 2, but he's certainly a guy worth stashing. He has a ton of upside as a receiver and Tampa Bay is badly in need of a third option behind Vincent Jacksonand Mike Evans in its passing game.
26. A popular tight end breakout candidate, Dwayne Allen played a lot early on for theIndianapolis Colts on Sunday night. His snaps faded quite a bit once the team entered comeback mode in the second half. Indianapolis went with three wide receivers on a massive 83 percent of its offensive snaps, and Allen was behind Coby Fleener at tight end. Allen has the talent to produce TE1 numbers, but the necessary targets will be hard to find in his current role.
27. Many suspected Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen would be heavily involved in the Carolina Panthers' offense, and that certainly proved true in Week 1. Subbing for Cam Newton, Derek Anderson directed 61 percent of his throws at the duo. That number is far from sustainable, but Benjamin and Olsen are good enough and will see adequate volume to provide WR3 and TE1 numbers, respectively, each and every week.
28. It's early, but there's plenty we can learn from Week 1 offensive personnel usage. TheGreen Bay Packers (89 percent) and New York Giants (88 percent) paced all teams in usage of their "11" package, which won't be a surprise if you read the preseason version of Fantasy 32. Rounding out the top five are the Colts (81 percent), Bears (70 percent) and Titans (66 percent). This is good news for the likes of Boykin, Jerrel Jernigan, Hakeem Nicks and Justin Hunter. This also makes Odell Beckham Jr. and Davante Adams well worth a stash in deeper leagues. Chicago will usually be more balanced offensively, so don't bother with Josh Morgan orSantonio Holmes.
29. Despite losing Jordan Cameron to an injury during the game, the Cleveland Browns leaned heavily on two-TE sets. Cleveland had its third wide receiver on the field a league-low 19 percent of the time. Expect a drastic change in this stat if Josh Gordon's suspension is overturned. Speaking of Gordon, he should be your top priority on waivers this week.
30. In addition to the Browns, the Rams, Texans, Vikings and Cardinals finished in the bottom five of the league in usage of the "11" offensive personnel package. This means lower snap counts for each team's No. 3 wide receivers. Taylor Gabriel, Damaris Johnson and Jarius Wrightare already well off the radar, but this should be a concern for those stashing John Brown and Tavon Austin.
31. Among all players with at least seven targets, Jeremy Maclin's 23.2 average depth of target was highest. Maclin was targeted 10 times during the Philadelphia Eagles' Week 1 win. Four of those targets were delivered 35-plus yards downfield. Having stepped right into DeSean Jackson's 2013 role, Maclin is a good WR3 with WR2 upside.
32. Doug Martin's poor Week 1 performance has many owners panicking, but there's still hope. Playing from behind most of the day, Tampa Bay called runs on only 15 of its 55 offensive plays. Both of those numbers will rise considerably. Martin played only 29 snaps, but handled 60 percent of the team's carries and was targeted twice. He's a logical buy-low candidate.

HacheMan · Sep 10, 2014

[h=1]Fantasy QBs on the rise, fall[/h][h=3]Berry and Hasselbeck debate season outlooks for Week 1 breakouts, flops[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Matthew Berry[/FONT] and [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Tim Hasselbeck[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

Every week during the NFL season, Matthew Berry will be engaging in a discussion with an NFL expert on topics that will provide valuable insights for fantasy owners. For this post-Week 1 edition, he and former NFL QB Tim Hasselbeck go over the quarterbacks who most impressed or caused the most concern with their opening-week performances.
[h=3]Which QBs most impressed in Week 1? And which caused concern?[/h]Matthew Berry: Tim, you're a former NFL quarterback and my co-host on "Fantasy Football Now." We know that QB is a hugely important position in fantasy. There were a lot of interesting QB performances for us to react and overreact to in Week 1. The one I'd like to start with is that of the Cardinals' Carson Palmer. He put up big fantasy points and looked good in the process. He's a guy I brought up a lot during the preseason, and his Week 1 performance was certainly encouraging for fantasy owners.
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Tim Hasselbeck: Coach Bruce Arians has proved over the years that he has the ability to design plays to get guys open down the field -- and when the blocking in front of Palmer is good, he still has the ability to effectively drive the ball downfield. Another reason to like him is that he has a nice group of wide receivers to throw to this season. It's not just Larry Fitzgeraldanymore; in fact, Fitzgerald didn't even have his first catch of the Cardinals' one-point Monday night win over the Chargers until the fourth quarter. Michael Floyd looks like the No. 1 option, and dynamic rookie John Brown caught a touchdown pass.
When you combine that talent in the receiving corps with the play-design and play-calling creativity of Arians, the conditions are there for Palmer to put up good numbers this season. He's more than just a fill-in fantasy starter this season.

Berry: I think he's a top-12 fantasy QB, even though I'm pretty sure we can't count on him adding 29 rushing yards every week the way he did against San Diego. But you're right about his supporting cast, and in addition to the receivers, Andre Ellington is a very good pass-catching option out of the backfield. He was only about 75 or 80 percent healthy Monday night, but once he's back to full strength, he adds to a very talented group of pass-catchers.
On the other end of the spectrum, Tim, I have my concerns about the Eagles' Nick Foles. If you own him, at the end of the day, you were happy with his fantasy numbers. But I thought he didn't look great in the win over Jacksonville. He had happy feet, didn't seem to be dealing well with pressure and just really struggled overall. It could have just been Week 1 jitters, but I think Foles' owners have reason to be concerned. I still have him as a top-12 QB, but he's at the lower end of that spectrum for me.
Hasselbeck: I'm not too concerned, because I don't think he'll have three turnovers every week. He won't have only four the entire season, like he did last year, but he should be just fine. My biggest gripe in watching him was how long he held onto the football; it led to bad decisions as a passer and fumbles once the pass rush got to him.
When he made throws on time and in rhythm, he was significantly better. Tight end Zach Ertzlooked like he was wide open on his touchdown reception, but it was actually a case of Foles throwing him open by being the eyes for Ertz, putting the ball exactly where it needed to be. Also, he's going to get some big plays like that Jeremy Maclin touchdown that are a product of coach Chip Kelly's offense. The scheme is designed so that you'll get those plays when guys just pop wide open.
I think your assessment of Foles as a back-end QB1 is fair. The nature of the position right now is that those guys in the Nos. 7 to 12 range -- Foles, Tony Romo, Colin Kaepernick, Matt Ryan,Robert Griffin III and Tom Brady -- are going to rotate around a little bit each week as to which rank at the front or back end of that group.
Berry: Interesting that you should mention Romo, as he was another guy who just did not look good to me on Sunday. He is someone you and I both liked a lot in the preseason. He has a lot of weapons around him, with Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Terrence Williams, a good pass-catching running back in DeMarco Murray and a solid offensive line, but he looked terrible against the 49ers.
I'm normally a defender of his, and I think he gets a bad rap both as an NFL QB and a fantasy QB, but it's hard to defend him after those three interceptions on Sunday. Those were all terrible decisions. Do you think this was just a bump in the road for him or a sign of bad things to come?
Hasselbeck: I'll answer your question with a question: What's your bigger concern as it pertains to Romo, his health (following his offseason back surgery) or his decision-making?
Berry: Health.

Hasselbeck: Me, too. And I agree with you about the interceptions. What you saw with those throws were decision-making errors, not physical limitation errors. On the first and third picks, his scope of vision simply wasn't wide enough to account for the defenders who eventually made their plays on the ball. The second one was a poor decision to throw across his body. But I think you can probably chalk those up to a lack of reps in training camp, and what I saw from him physically -- his ability to move in the pocket, get the ball downfield and take a hit -- actually made me feel better about him coming out of the Niners game than I did going into the first week.
Berry: I definitely don't feel better about him now than I did prior to that game, but having said that, I think he's more of a buy-low candidate than a total panic situation. The Cowboys aren't going to be able to stop anybody this season, and that could result in some big numbers for Romo.
Speaking of panic, I'm greatly concerned with what I saw from Griffin. It wasn't even about the two red zone turnovers, one of which wasn't his fault, with the other being debatable. It was the fact that he didn't run, which is the one aspect you can usually rely upon with regard to his fantasy value. New coach Jay Gruden seemed determined to make him a pocket passer, and a dink-and-dunk pocket passer at that. I think some of that was that he had no time to throw because J.J. Watt was in the backfield the whole game, but still ...
The only positive takeaway I had was how much the Redskins' offense struggled overall. Gruden is not a stupid guy, and I think that it could come to a point in the future -- possibly the near future -- when he says, "OK, Robert. Start running. Your legs are one of our best weapons." And he's not going to send his team out there every week trying to win games without using one of its best weapons.
Hasselbeck: If they don't let him run, I really don't like my prediction this offseason that he could be the one guy in the middle range who can sneak into that top tier of QBs. I think he has the ability to be a 1,000-yard rusher, which isn't that crazy when you remember he rushed for 815 yards as a rookie. But not if they don't use him that way. They didn't even use him the way Kaepernick was used for the 49ers.
And get this: Andy Dalton was used more as a zone-read QB in Week 1 than RG III was. In one series, the Bengals called three zone-read plays. As of now, it doesn't look like we're getting any of that out of the Redskins. And if they're not going to run him, then I don't want to own him.
One last thought: We're operating under the assumption that RG III wants to run, and the coaching staff won't let him. But I think it's debatable as to whether he wants to run. He has seen the toll the added hits have taken on his body.
Berry: You're right in that he may not want to be hit that much. But regardless, as somebody who owns RG III in two leagues, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't nervous.

I've got one more QB I wanted to ask you about: I was on the bandwagon this offseason that said this would be a bounce-back year for Tom Brady. But his play in the Patriots' loss to the Dolphins was troubling. I realize thatRob Gronkowski isn't yet 100 percent, and things could get better as he gets back in the swing of things, but Brady simply cannot withstand the hits he took against Miami. That offensive line did not look good.
Hasselbeck: I'm holding out hope that Brady will turn things around based on this: His offensive line was working together basically for the first time on Sunday, and they were overwhelmed by the heat in Miami. Jared Odrick and Cameron Wake took over that game Sunday as the O-line wore down, and they won't have to deal with those temperatures every week.
I think Gronk's health and involvement in the offense will influence Brady's fantasy impact as much as anything else. I wasn't really sure of his role on Sunday -- he played a lot in the first half, then just six snaps in the second, but he was back in the game with 30 seconds left with the score already out of hand. He looked pretty healthy to me, from what I saw. I wouldn't press the panic button just yet.
Berry: I totally agree. We always play this game, asking ourselves what's most likely to happen. And to me, it's that Brady becomes TOM BRADY in capital letters again. He's not going to continue to have single-digit fantasy points for much longer.
I think we've covered the biggest QB storylines coming out of Week 1. Thanks for weighing in with your expertise, Tim. We'll see how these guys evolve during the next couple of weeks.

HacheMan · Sep 10, 2014

[h=1]Backfield breakdown entering Week 2

[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Eric Karabell[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

While injuries could potentially leave a few starting running backs unable to play in Week 2 (Ben Tate, Doug Martin), clearly one of the situations to watch will be Thursday night, when the Baltimore Ravens meet the rival Pittsburgh Steelers. I predicted last week that journeymanJustin Forsett would see plenty of opportunities with the Ravens the first two weeks becauseBernard Pierce struggled to stay on the field in 2013, and when he was out there, he rarely did something positive. And now, obviously, the entire situation moving forward for this organization has radically changed.
Forsett is listed at 5-foot-8, 197 pounds, and while he has averaged nearly 5 yards per rush in his career with five teams and been a helpful pass-catcher and return man, it's hard to see him earning more than 20 touches per contest. This has to be a timeshare to some degree, and if Pierce isn't up to the task, or can't hold on to the football -- that's mainly why Forsett got the opportunity Sunday -- the Ravens also have Lorenzo Taliaferro and I'm sure someone else will be brought in for depth. Former San Francisco 49er LaMichael James is looking for work. So is BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who would seem a wise fit here. I'm moving Forsett to the top spot on the Baltimore depth chart, regardless of what the team claims -- don’t believe what a team claims! -- but both he and Pierce should be owned. Neither will be among my top 25 running backs in the Week 2 rankings; however, I will rank Forsett higher than Pierce.
Several backs with Week 1 numbers are not listed on the running back chart, ceding the "stealth" column to others I predict have more upside. For example, check the Buffalo Bills. Former Philadelphia Eagle Bryce Brown was a surprise inactive Sunday and the bruisingAnthony Dixon earned a red zone carry and ran for 60 yards total. I still think Brown is the intriguing name after C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. In Atlanta, rookie Devonta Freeman was quiet, but eventually he'll move up past Antone Smith and probably Jacquizz Rodgers, too. Same with Tennessee, where rookie Bishop Sankey is the future, but Shonn Greene is the clear No. 1 guy and Dexter McCluster will see opportunities behind him. If you drafted these rookies and aren't pleased by early results, try to be a bit more patient before moving on.
As for the Browns' Tate and the Buccaneers' Martin, their backups should be owned, since the starters haven't been so healthy in their young careers. In Cleveland, I believe Terrance Westis the next in line, even though Isaiah Crowell, another rookie, rushed for two touchdowns in relief. West was a dynamic player at Towson and produced mind-boggling numbers. It wouldn't surprise me if he leaps over a healthy Tate on the depth chart soon. Martin was hardly playing like a star before injuring his leg Sunday and ceding touches to Bobby Rainey. I believed all along that Martin was overrated and ranked him as such, in the back end of my top 20, which appears too generous. I thought Tampa Bay always wanted a timeshare, and Mike James could factor in as well. Don't cut Martin yet. It's one week! But if you're counting on him as a regular starter, be wary.
Other situations I'm watching in Week 2 include the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots. Look, I'm sure Trent Richardson is trying really, really hard, but if you didn't know his real-life draft spot a few years ago, you wouldn't still be waiting for him to put up numbers. He doesn't look like a great football player. Ahmad Bradshaw has a ton more burst and we saw it in the receiving game. Of course, durability is an issue. I still think Daniel Herron could matter. And with the Patriots, Stevan Ridley earned eight carries, Shane Vereen seven. I think coach Bill Belichick will use the hot hand, or hot legs in this case, and if his team cannot establish a running game soon, I bet we see new names. James White, the fourth-round pick out of Wisconsin, was inactive Sunday, but I still expect he will matter at some point as well. Especially if Ridley dares fumble the football again.

HacheMan · Sep 14, 2014

[h=1]Benjamin has big value as rookie[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Christopher Harris[/FONT] | ESPN.com

I tend to avoid rookie receivers. My sense is they don't usually live up to the hype. But is that fair? Here are the rookie wideouts who have been drafted in ESPN's ADP top 160 over the past five years and how they performed in their first NFL campaigns:

Player	Rookie Season	ADP	Rookie VBD Rank
Tavon Austin	2013	79	NA
DeAndre Hopkins	2013	151	NA
Justin Blackmon	2012	129	92
Stephen Hill	2012	146	NA
A.J. Green	2011	93	53
Julio Jones	2011	115	57
Leonard Hankerson	2011	134	NA
Dez Bryant	2010	89	NA
Mike Williams	2010	147	40
Percy Harvin	2009	98	56

Three out of the past four have been bad, but in total, six of these 11 players actually outperformed their draft position (although the recent bad taste of Tavon Austin lingers). It seems it is actually possible to get good fantasy value out of first-year pass-catchers, even ones who bear the stench of hype.
What about this year's crop? Four rookie WRs were drafted in the ADP top 160: Sammy Watkins (100th), Mike Evans (130th), Brandin Cooks (136th) and Kelvin Benjamin (140th). Watkins (3 catches, 31 yards) and Evans (5 for 37) didn't do much in Week 1. Cooks (7 for 77, 1 TD) was terrific. But statistically, the best of the bunch was Benjamin: six grabs for 92 yards and a TD. And at the moment, he's the rookie I'm most interested in for fantasy.

Benjamin
Certainly, my interest is partly about opportunity. Whereas Cooks has to compete for targets with a deep and talented New Orleans Saints receiving corps, Benjamin already looks like a clear No. 1. The Carolina Panthers are trundling out Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant in two- and three-receiver sets. If he stays healthy and doesn't make too many mistakes, Benjamin is almost guaranteed the most WR snaps and targets on this team. That's pretty incredible, considering the consensus opinion of Benjamin at Florida State was that he was too raw to be an NFL wideout right away. He's obviously impressed Carolina's coaches, as they're willing to enter a Super Bowl-dreaming season with a rookie as their best (only?) outside threat.
I ranked Benjamin 21st in my WR ranks for Week 2, higher than any other rookie wideout and very high for a player who, as of this writing, was still available in 46 percent of ESPN leagues. Part of that rank is a disbelief in the Detroit Lions' secondary. But part is my acceptance of how heavily the Panthers are prepared to lean on Benjamin. To that end, let's look at how they used him in Week 1.
Benjamin played on eight of the Panthers' first nine offensive snaps. On each of those plays, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers stationed a defensive back directly across from him, and bumped him at the line. Then the 10th play came, and they tried it again:

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Benjamin's route here is a post, where he wants to get across cornerback Johnthan Banks' face and present himself running diagonally down the field. Banks -- a 2013 second-round pick who goes 6-foot-2 and 185 pounds -- is supposed to get his hands on Benjamin and mess up his timing. Some of the reason Banks was a high draft pick traces to his size and his ability to press receivers at the line. The Bucs assumed Benjamin wasn't going to "out-quick" Banks, so their plan was to get up on him and make it difficult for him to run his routes. Here's a close-up of how Benjamin felt about that:

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Just who's doing the chucking here? Benjamin -- who goes 6-foot-5 and 240 pounds -- gets his arms on Banks first, and begins driving him backward like a blocking sled. Banks is off-balance and can't catch up, Benjamin's route is unimpeded, and he makes his first regular-season NFL catch, an 11-yard gain.
What happened next reveals something about Benjamin. The next time the Panthers got the ball, Tampa's coverage had changed for the first time: The DB across from Benjamin was seven yards off the line. It would be an overstatement to say the Bucs never pressed Benjamin again. They definitely did. But they were more judicious with it, because they'd seen how strong he is getting off the line.
Now, the first seven of Benjamin's Week 1 targets came on the exact same route: a post. That's not to say every single route he ran was a post, but when Derek Anderson (subbing forCam Newton) actually threw it to him, Benjamin began running straight down the field, then broke inward diagonally toward the goalpost. Clearly, opposing defenses -- beginning with the Lions this week -- will be on the lookout for this route. A limited route tree could be something that hinders Benjamin as the season goes on.

But then came Benjamin's final target, on the first play of the fourth quarter. The Panthers were just outside the red zone, and Benjamin ran an indifferent, "Great Circle" fly pattern -- basically he just kind of meandered down the field around press coverage, not so much a route as a lazy sprint -- and Anderson threw the ball up into the end zone. It could easily have been picked, or at least defended. Instead, Mike Jenkins committed pass interference futilely trying box out the giant Benjamin, who caught the ball for a TD anyway. He was covered. He just used those long arms to reach around Jenkins and catch the pass against the DB's body. It was the kind of red zone work that, while not reflecting route-running proficiency, nevertheless gets fantasy owners drooling.
The takeaway here is yes, of course, Benjamin is raw. He doesn't do a great many things with finesse. But he's strong and he's big. He's a bloody handful. Given the workload the Panthers seem set to offer him, Benjamin should be considered a borderline fantasy starter -- albeit perhaps a feast-or-famine one -- most weeks in most leagues. And at the very least, he should be added in all leagues.

HacheMan · Sep 14, 2014

[h=1]Fantasy advice on every team[/h][h=3]Our NFL reporters offer Week 2 fantasy intel from inside each locker room[/h]
By NFL Nation Reporters | ESPN Insider

ESPN Insider has planted spies in every NFL locker room -- OK, so they're our 32 NFL Nation team reporters -- in order to provide fantasy owners with inside intel to help you win your league. We call it Insider Trading, a collection of fantasy lineup advice pulled straight from the locker rooms and practice fields of every team.
This pre-Week 2 edition should help owners with their roster decisions, including why the Lions' running backs could be risky plays, and why DeSean Jackson looks primed for a big week.
Check back every week for info that will help you set your lineups. Here is our NFL Nation reporters' fantasy advice, covering every team.

[h=3]NFC North[/h]

Green Bay Packers: Cobb, Nelson will be targeted deep
Receiver Randall Cobb said the Packers want to try to stretch the field this week after failing to get anything down the field in the opener against the Seahawks. That should mean more opportunities for him and receiver Jordy Nelson, who were heavily targeted last week but mostly on short-to-intermediate routes. Cobb said the Packers plan to "take some shots" deep this week against the weak Jets secondary, which means good production from the WR position for their fantasy owners. -- Rob Demovsky
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Chicago Bears: Big day coming for Forte
Chicago's run-pass ratio in the season opener against the Bills was so lopsided (49 passes, 18 runs) that the Bears believe they need to make Matt Forte a focal point of the offense especially after he averaged 4.8 yards per attempt. San Francisco struggled to stop DeMarco Murray in its opener, and although the Bears expect a renewed focus by the 49ers against the run, they know they need to balance out the attack more and try to control the ball. You were probably starting him anyway, but in case you were scared off by his matchup against the Niners' defense, don't be. --Michael C. Wright

Detroit Lions: Think twice about starting Bell, Bush
Fantasy owners should be cautious about starting Reggie Bush and Joique Bell against Carolina on Sunday. Detroit starting right tackle LaAdrian Waddle has not practiced all week and his backup, Corey Hilliard, is out for the season. The Lions are looking at starting either an undrafted rookie free agent, Cornelius Lucas, or recently signed Garrett Reynolds as their starting right tackle. Against one of the tougher front sevens in the NFL, that does not bode well for Bush's or Bell's fantasy upside. -- Michael Rothstein

Minnesota Vikings: WRs still good plays against Revis, Pats secondary
If the Patriots use Darrelle Revis in the same manner that they did last week -- and the Vikings move their receivers around as they've done in recent games -- Vikings wideouts should still have opportunities on Sunday. Revis played most of last week's game on one side of the field, and the Vikings put both Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson in a number of different positions last week. Quarterback Matt Cassel won't be afraid to challenge Revis, and the Vikings should have enough variety in their receiver sets for both Jennings and Patterson to get their chances this week. -- Ben Goessling

[h=3]NFC East[/h]

Dallas Cowboys: Murray could get a bump in PPR leagues
With Tony Romo coming off a three-interception game in Week 1, the Cowboys could become more reliant on DeMarco Murray, especially as they head on the road for the first time this season. Tennessee shut down Jamaal Charles (seven carries, 19 yards), but the Cowboys have to show faith in Murray away from home and make life easier for Romo. Against San Francisco, Murray ran 22 times for 118 yards, but his impact in the passing game against the Titans could be big, too; and that would be welcome news for those of us in PPR leagues. In the 10 games following a three-interception effort by Romo in his career, Cowboys running backs have averaged 5.5 catches for 41 yards. -- Todd Archer

New York Giants: TE Donnell could be a sneaky play
He's still not much of a blocker, which means he won't be on the field for every snap, but if you're hard up for a tight end, you can expect Larry Donnell to be the one who keeps catching passes from Eli Manning. The Giants view Donnell as their best pass-catching tight end, and he should be a significant part of the target game plan this week against an Arizona defense that's been vulnerable to tight end production since last year. In addition to being a good pickup in standard leagues, he's also a quality value in salary-cap leagues. -- Dan Graziano

Washington Redskins: D-Jax could explode in Week 2
The Redskins are confident they can run the ball against Jacksonville's front, which should lead to a good day for running back Alfred Morris. But the combination of play-action and banged-up, or backup, safeties, could lead to an even better day for receiver DeSean Jackson. One player said he could have a "huge day. Huge. If it goes the way we think in the run game." Jackson might be a bit under the radar after a relatively quiet Week 1 (eight receptions for 62 yards), but he sports nice Week 2 upside for fantasy squads. -- John Keim

Philadelphia Eagles: Keep Foles in your lineups
Eagles quarterback Nick Foles did not have the season opener he was hoping for, losing two fumbles and throwing an interception in the first half against Jacksonville. Foles established last year that he rebounds well from off weeks. He shook off a poor performance (11-for-29 for 80 yards) against Dallas last year to throw seven touchdowns in Oakland, and his second-half play against the Jaguars (15-for-21, 183 yards, two TDs) was more in line with what people expect from Foles. Don't hesitate to have Foles in your lineups against the Colts. -- Phil Sheridan

`[h=3]NFC South[/h]

Carolina Panthers: Olsen a safe play; Newton could run less
It's safe to put starting Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton into your lineup against Detroit after he missed the opener with fractured ribs, but don't look for him to run as much as he typically might. Another safe play is tight end Greg Olsen, who is about as sure a thing as you can get. He had eight catches for 83 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. He's the only active tight end to catch at least five TDs a year since 2008. Tight endLarry Donnell led the Giants in catches against Detroit with five for 56 yards and a touchdown, and he's no Olsen. -- David Newton

New Orleans Saints: Morgan is a deep sleeper
Joe Morgan didn't catch a pass in Week 1. But he could be a sleeper pickup for deep leagues because of his big-play ability. Morgan played 49 snaps in Week 1, moving ahead of Robert Meachem in the rotation. And Drew Brees targeted him twice on deep "shot plays," just missing on two big TDs. Before he missed 2013 with a knee injury, Morgan averaged an astounding 37.9 yards per catch on 10 receptions in 2012. Those in salary-cap leagues could use Morgan as a cheap upside play. -- Mike Triplett

Atlanta Falcons: Hester could make noise on returns
Both Falcons head coach Mike Smith and special-teams coordinator Keith Armstrong believe Devin Hester will get more opportunities on returns this week as the Falcons play outdoors at Cincinnati. Fifteen of Hester's NFL-record 19 return scores have come outdoors, including 11 at Soldier Field when he played for the Bears. If you're in a league that counts return TDs for your wide receivers, Hester could get a bump. He also showed well as a receiver in Week 1. -- Vaughn McClure

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keep Martin in your lineups
Despite the limited expectations most had for Doug Martin, it was hard to not panic after he mustered just 9 yards on nine carries before leaving the regular-season opener with a leg injury. Is the panic warranted? Aside from a 54-yard rush from fullback Jorvorskie Lane last week, the running game was totally ineffective. But don't go benching Martin just yet. Multiple coaches and players have said the Bucs are committed to getting Martin going against the Rams. Keep him in your lineups. -- Pat Yasinskas

[h=3]NFC West[/h]

Seattle Seahawks: Don't snooze on Baldwin and Kearse
It didn't go unnoticed by the Seahawks that the Chargers gave up some long pass plays Monday night against the Cardinals, including a 63-yard reception by Michael Floyd. Seattle receivers Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse expect to exploit that Sunday. Deep sideline catches are a specialty for Kearse, and the coaches want to make him more a part of the offense this week. Both Baldwin and Kearse could be worth a look in deeper leagues. -- Terry Blount

St. Louis Rams: Quick is ready to contribute
Rams receiver Brian Quick said this week that he has reached a point where he's now just reacting and not thinking on the field all the time. The third-year wideout had a career-best performance in Week 1 with seven catches for 99 yards and told me that he's playing with more confidence than ever now that he's been able to translate his work in practice into a regular-season game. The Rams' quarterback situation is a mess, but if one of them can get the ball to Quick, he's ready to make an impact for the Rams -- and fantasy owners. -- Nick Wagoner

San Francisco 49ers: Kaepernick's legs could be on display Sunday
After cutting LaMichael James this week, the 49ers have just two tailbacks on the roster. Facing a Chicago Bears team that gave up 193 yards on the ground in its opener, you have to figure the Niners would stick to a ground attack in christening Levi's Stadium. So investing in Frank Gore seems smart. But the feeling in Santa Clara, California, is quarterback Colin Kaepernick and the read-option could make a big comeback against the Bears as well, giving the quarterback an extra edge in fantasy terms. He's a must-start this week. -- Paul Gutierrez

Arizona Cardinals: Using Ellington could be risky
Running back Andre Ellington has spent the majority of this week resting his injured left foot, which was in a boot during Wednesday's practice. Ellington wasn't as sore as expected this week after playing 36 snaps in Week 1 and rushing for 53 yards on 13 carries against San Diego. But fantasy owners should be cautious about starting him this week against the Giants. Despite Ellington's potential, he carries with him a fair amount of risk. -- Josh Weinfuss

[h=3]AFC North[/h]

Cleveland Browns: Rookies West, Crowell will both see playing time
Running back Ben Tate is injured and the Browns will play two rookies (Terrance Westand Isaiah Crowell) against the New Orleans Saints, whose defense ranked fourth overall in 2013 and returns most of the same players who earned that ranking. However, it's still a safe play to go with either of the rookies if they're on your fantasy team. Coach Mike Pettine has complete faith in West, and growing belief in Crowell. He said this week the Browns have to run the ball well to set up play-action, which is a vital part of their offense. The team averaged six yards per carry in Pittsburgh, an excellent figure. Much of that happened with Tate sidelined. The Browns will not abandon the run with their two rookies. -- Pat McManamon

Cincinnati Bengals: More work for rookie Hill this week?
It appears we missed on last week's Bengals fantasy advice after Jeremy Hill was rewarded with just four carries for 19 yards. Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is well aware of the rookie running back's low production, and has vowed this week to give Hill more opportunities. Here's what Jackson told me he said to Hill after Sunday's 23-16 win over the Ravens. "I know he needs to play. We drafted him to play," Jackson said. "I told him after the game myself on the plane." You'll likely have to have a very thin RB corps to give Hill the start this week, but against a Falcons defense that allowed 5.0 yards per carry last week, he might be worth a flier. -- Coley Harvey

[h=3]AFC East[/h]

Buffalo Bills: Woods could be for real
After a quiet preseason, Robert Woods surprisingly received the start over Mike Williams in Sunday's win over the Bears and was the Bills' leading receiver. While coach Doug Marrone said the Bills might continue to rotate receivers behind Sammy Watkins, Woods and quarterback EJ Manuel were the last two players off the practice field Thursday, working closely with offensive coordinator Nate Hackett and quarterbacks coach Todd Downing while other players were in the locker room. That points toward Woods continuing to see considerable playing time and making an impact for fantasy teams. -- Mike Rodak

Miami Dolphins: Consistency a plus for Wallace this year
Dolphins receiver Mike Wallace had a good fantasy start in Week 1 with seven receptions for 81 yards and a touchdown. But what makes Wallace a good play moving forward are a couple of things beyond the numbers. First, Wallace had 11 targets in his first game, a clear indication the Dolphins plan to get him the ball often this season. Second, Wallace lined up outside, in the slot and even in the backfield. Wallace recently told me this year's offense under Bill Lazor is more fun to play in because his role is unpredictable. That should lead to more consistent fantasy production for Wallace. Keep him in your starting lineups. -- James Walker

New England Patriots: Pats want more from RBs, which is good news for Vereen
Patriots players tell me they weren't happy with the way they ran the ball in the season opener and there will be a concerted effort to improve in that area Sunday in Minnesota. Shane Vereen (61 snaps) was the primary running back in the opener over Stevan Ridley (22 snaps) and Brandon Bolden (nine snaps). The team wants to feed that group a bit more, starting with Vereen. Players were impressed with how Vereen performed in early-down and short-yardage situations in the opener. Look for him to get more opportunities in those situations this week, plus his propensity for catching passes makes him an even better value in PPR leagues. -- Mike Reiss

New York Jets: Ivory and Johnson could find success versus Packers
The Jets are planning a ground-heavy attack against the Packers, so stay away from quarterback Geno Smith and the wide receivers, who will have trouble creating separation against the Packers' aggressive corners. The Jets went to school on the Packers-Seahawks tape, and they will use some running schemes that worked for the Seahawks. Chris Ivory is a tackle-breaking runner in the Marshawn Lynch mold, so they expect him to be successful. The Jets have some wrinkles planned for Chris Johnson, whom they believe can hurt the Packers on the perimeter. Both running backs could make some fantasy noise in Week 2. -- Rich Cimini

[h=3]AFC South[/h]

Houston Texans: Foster in line for another big week
Texans coach Bill O'Brien wasn't kidding when he said running back Arian Fosterwould get the bulk of the carries in Week 1. He carried a league-high 27 times for 103 yards. The Oakland Raiders, the team Foster grew up rooting for, allowed a league-high 212 yards last week. Foster is still fresh enough to take advantage of that, so don't hesitate to start him in standard leagues or pony up for him in salary-cap leagues. --Tania Ganguli

Indianapolis Colts: Bradshaw could soon steal Richardson's workload
Running back Ahmad Bradshaw showed his versatility against Denver in Week 1, producing 15 yards on three carries and 70 yards on five receptions. You can expect Bradshaw's carries to increase if Trent Richardson doesn't produce. Bradshaw told me he doesn't believe in going out of bounds to avoid contact when running near the sideline. He'd rather risk getting hit hard to get an extra yard or two than go out of bounds. That's not great for his durability, but he'll get your fantasy team every yard he can. You won't be starting him yet, but he might be a sneaky pickup who pays off in a few weeks. -- Mike Wells

Jacksonville Jaguars: Hurns more than just a one-hit wonder
Rookie receiver Allen Hurns had quite a debut (four catches, 110 yards, two TDs), and he was undoubtedly one of the first waiver-wire pickups in most leagues earlier this week. The question is whether he's a one-week wonder or a consistent performer. It's more likely to be the latter, because he has a better grasp of the offense than fellow rookiesMarqise Lee and Allen Robinson since he played under OC Jedd Fisch at the University of Miami. Coach Gus Bradley said Hurns would be the Jaguars' No. 2 receiver when/if Cecil Shorts IIIreturns because of his comfort level with the offense. -- Mike DiRocco

Tennessee Titans: RBs are risky plays, but keep an eye on Sankey
Bishop Sankey didn't get a carry until the middle of the third quarter in Week 1. But Ken Whisenhunt said that wasn't by design; it was more about game flow. Dexter McCluster said the backs don't really know how much they will be used in a game. So how can you make any predictions? The Titans' collective rushing totals should be good, but until their individual roles flesh out in the coming weeks, playing any one Titans running back is a risky proposition. But don't give up on Sankey yet. -- Paul Kuharsky

[h=3]AFC West[/h]

Denver Broncos: WR Thomas should have a huge game
Any time Demaryius Thomas has a game with fewer than 50 yards receiving -- and it hasn't happened all that often with Peyton Manning at quarterback -- the next week is routinely a big day. Thomas had 48 yards receiving in the opener. Over the past two seasons combined, Thomas has been held to under 50 yards receiving in six games. Five times Thomas has followed that with a 100-yard day in his next game and scored a touchdown in four of those games. You'd have to have a pretty stacked receiving corps to even consider sitting Thomas, but this week is definitely not the week for it. -- Jeff Legwold

Kansas City Chiefs: Don't panic about Charles
Andy Reid said he was negligent in not getting more than seven carries to Jamaal Charles last week against Tennessee. That almost guarantees Charles will get the ball more on Sunday against the Broncos in Denver. Since becoming the Chiefs' featured back, Charles has almost always bounced back with a big game the week after getting little use. In 2012, he twice rushed for more than 200 yards in the week after a game in which he got fewer than 10 carries. -- Adam Teicher

Oakland Raiders: Streater becoming Carr's favorite target
Rod Streater might be developing into Derek Carr's most reliable target. Streater had five catches against the Jets in coverage against five different defenders on six targeted passes. Clearly, Carr has confidence in him. It appears Streater earned that trust much more than Denarius Moore, who caught just two of eight targeted passes against New York. Coaches like the way Carr and Streater have connected in practice, and Streater said after the loss to the Jets that he loves the way Carr runs the offense and that he believes the rookie will get better quickly. -- Bill Williamson

San Diego Chargers: Rivers could put up solid numbers -- even against Seattle
Expect offensive coordinator Frank Reich to pare down the play sheet and for Philip Rivers to rebound from a poor performance against Arizona on Monday night. Rivers has thrown for 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions in his past five home openers, going 3-2 in those games. Despite the tough matchup, Rivers could chip in for fantasy teams without better options at QB. -- Eric Williams

HacheMan · Sep 15, 2014

[h=1]Must-start fantasy players[/h][h=3]Four who've earned weekly starter status; plus, top waiver-wire pickups[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]KC Joyner[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

One of the most difficult achievements for an NFL player in the fantasy football world is to be considered an every-week starter. Fantasy football owners are notoriously particular when it comes to granting that status and this mindset can often lead to players being kept out of the weekly lineup list well past the time when they have earned this standing.
This week's Fantasy Foresight article will work to assist in this area by noting four players who are not considered every-week starters but who should be. (Note: The bar for consideration on this list was players whose start percentage was 60 percent or lower in Week 2.) These players range from longtime impact wide receivers to a quarterback who could be leading his offense to consecutive record-setting seasons.
Also included below are three players whose superb Week 2 performances will continue this season, three players who likely will not replicate their Week 2 success or struggles and three waiver-wire suggestions heading into Week 3.

Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears
Last season, Chicago coach Marc Trestman put together a highly effective game plan to help curb Cutler's longstanding penchant for taking too many risks with the football. Combine that with a set of pass-catchers that is arguably the best in the NFL and it should have led to Cutler being considered a QB1 heading into this season.<offer></offer>
Cutler's two-week total of 42 fantasy points place him only one point shy of equaling Peyton Manning's fantasy point total from the first two weeks and he has more points than Aaron Rodgers (36) and Drew Brees (30), so he has lived up to the QB1 potential. Cutler's durability and penchant for taking big hits (as he did against the 49ers on Sunday night) do mean that fantasy owners need to have a backup plan in place. But until Cutler does get hurt, keep him in the starting lineup every week.

Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Up until his injury last season, Wayne was considered one of the most consistent workhorse wide receivers in the NFL. That reputation was earned, as according to ESPN Stats & Information Wayne's 9.52 fantasy points per game ranked 19th among wide receivers over the course of the 2012 and 2013 campaigns. His nine receptions for 98 yards in Week 1 was nearly par for that course.
A slate of cornerbacks that includes only three red-rated matchups (red indicating the most difficult matchup level for an offensive player) the rest of the season should lead Wayne to continue this incredibly consistent production and justify either WR2 or flex starter status on a weekly basis.

Mike Wallace, WR, Miami Dolphins
It wasn't that long ago when Wallace had a 20-game stretch that was every bit as productive as Calvin Johnson's. His days of equaling Megatron are long gone, but his central role in offensive coordinator Bill Lazor's scheme has led to consecutive double-digit fantasy point totals.
Lazor spent a lot of time this offseason looking for ways to get Wallace open looks downfield, and so far it has helped lead to Wallace posting a vertical pass (aerials thrown 11 or more yards) completion rate of 50 percent. That total is higher than both his 35.6 percent vertical completion rate in 2013 and his 33.9 percent rate in 2012, and is part of the reason why Wallace is now posting starter-caliber numbers on a regular basis.

Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Denver Broncos
The Broncos may have more bona fide fantasy football starters in their lineup than any other team but Sanders hasn't quite hit that list yet. That should change after two games in which he posted a composite total of 14 receptions on 18 targets for 185 yards. Those figures led to 18 fantasy points in standard leagues and 32 points in PPR leagues.
He is taking over the workhorse wide receiver role in Wes Welker's absence, and, given Welker's injury history, it would not be a surprise to see Sanders continue to shoulder a large portion of the dink-and-dunk work even when Welker returns to the Broncos' starting lineup.

[h=3]Week 2 performances that will continue[/h]

Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee Titans
According to ESPN Stats & Information, last season only 12 tight ends had at least four games with 10 or more fantasy points scored. This year, Walker already has posted one contest of that caliber (20 points in Week 2) and nearly had a second (nine points in Week 1).
His remaining schedule this season includes five green-rated matchups (green indicating a very favorable matchup for the offensive player), so there is a good chance he can top his 2013 mark of double-digit fantasy point totals. One word of caution: Walker does have two red-rated matchups over the next three weeks, so stick with him if his production falters in this time frame.

Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers
Let this sink in a moment: Rivers racked up 24 fantasy points against the Seahawks' defense Sunday. No quarterback in 2013 scored as many as 20 points and only three scored more than 12 points. Rivers is doing this well in part due to a willingness to throw near the opponent's end zone, as he has three touchdown passes on plays that started at or near the opponent's 10-yard line.
With a matchup slate that features contests against the Jaguars, Jets, Raiders and Chiefs in Weeks 4-7, respectively, Rivers should find his way to the 20-plus point mark again in the near future.

Bobby Rainey, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rainey gained 144 yards on 22 carries while filling in for an injured RB Doug Martin, but that wasn't the first time he has posted excellent rushing totals. Last season, his 9.9-yard mark in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric -- which gauges productivity on rushing plays with good blocking -- ranked third among running backs with at least 100 carries.
Given Martin's struggles last year and early this season, Rainey may end up taking away a good portion of Martin's playing time. He should be near the top of any waiver-wire list this week.

[h=3]Week 2 performances that won't continue[/h]

Owen Daniels, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Just as it is never a good idea to chase goal-line carries among backup running backs, it is not a wise move to count on goal-line touchdowns for tight ends. Take away his two short-distance scores against the Steelers (2 yards and 1 yard, respectively), and Daniels has scored only five fantasy points this year.

Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
Ryan scored only nine points against the Bengals' defense, but keep in mind how deeply stocked that platoon is. Rookie Darqueze Dennard had phenomenalcoverage metrics in college and picked up things so fast that Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis said he is the best rookie cornerback he had ever seen -- and yet he was ranked fifth on the Bengals' cornerback depth chart in the Atlanta game.
For Ryan to struggle on the road against a secondary of this caliber should not be considered a negative omen for upcoming contests against the Buccaneers, Vikings, Giants and Bears.

Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers
Lacy and the Packers started off with consecutive games against red-rated rush defenses (Seahawks and Jets), but Green Bay has only one more red-rated rush defense on its schedule the rest of the year. Look for Lacy to greatly improve upon his abysmal 5.6 GBYPA in Weeks 1-2.

[h=3]Three waiver-wire pickups to make[/h]

Knile Davis, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Davis' 8.5 GBYPA mark while filling in last year for an injured Jamaal Charles was a higher mark in that category than what Charles posted in his 2013 season (7.8). Even if Davis fills in for only a short time while Charles recuperates, he is more than capable of replicating his 21-point performance in Week 2.

James Jones, WR, Oakland Raiders
Vertical passes are Jones' specialty and so far this year he has racked up 23.5 yards per reception and 13 fantasy points on those throws. With that type of success rate, it is highly likely that Derek Carr will continue to regularly target Jones on downfield passes.

Niles Paul, TE, Washington Redskins
Paul has yet to officially register a start this season but his 185 receiving yards rank second among tight ends through the Sunday Week 2 games. He's putting up the kinds of numbers that could make Washington tell the oft-injured Jordan Reed to take his time getting back to full health.

HacheMan · Sep 15, 2014

[h=1]Four Downs: Injuries dominate Week 2

By Eric Karabell | ESPN Insider

[/h]
The unfortunate NFL stories leading up to Sunday's game were basically about anything but the action on the field -- [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Adrian Peterson[/FONT], Ray Rice, [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Greg Hardy[/FONT] -- so it wasn't surprising the theme of Sunday afternoon was again barely about the players regaling us with gaudy statistics. This time, it's about important injuries. The most valuable fantasy option to leave early was surely[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Cincinnati Bengals[/FONT] wide receiver [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]A.J. Green[/FONT], bolting with a [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]toe injury[/FONT] and a big, costly zero for fantasy owners. [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Miami Dolphins[/FONT] running back [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Knowshon Moreno[/FONT], one of the surprise stars of Week 1, and suddenly trusted for a road tilt in Buffalo, suffered a [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]dislocated elbow[/FONT] after one rushing attempt for 4 measly yards. And then there is the Washington football team, or what's left of it.This might hurt some feelings, but the way Robert Griffin III was playing it stands to reason that Kirk Cousins is simply a better option at this point. Of course, if we were getting the dynamic rookie RG III, that would change everything, since that version in 2012 was awesome.This version, which is what we mainly saw in 2013 and Week 1 this season, is not, so when Griffin left after three passes and two rushes with a dislocated left ankle, waving to the home crowd as if confirming his season was in peril, Washington fans and fantasy owners were likely wondering whether his absence was really that big of a deal. After all, what Griffin owner felt safe and secure activating him? Now you're forced to move on. It's a shame he's injured again, but, in terms of fantasy, it's better than losing fantasy contests because you trust name value. Meanwhile, we have another quarterback to analyze.
It's tough to see a ton of upside with Cousins or this offense, which also lost overrated wide receiver DeSean Jackson to a sprained shoulder after one catch for 19 yards. Cousins managed the team in its 41-10 trouncing of the awful Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, completing 22 of 33 passes for 250 yards and two touchdowns to ignored fantasy options (Darrel Young andNiles Paul), but it's premature to trust him until we see him against better defenses. We'll find out more in Week 3 at Philadelphia, but I can't see ranking Cousins as a top-15 quarterback that soon, if at all. I wouldn't use him over the San Diego Chargers' Philip Rivers at Buffalo or the Dallas Cowboys' Tony Romo at St. Louis, to name a few options who generally rank in the low teens. I'd say in general Cousins should be viewed as a borderline top-20 quarterback option, but any rush to acquire him is a mistake. Drop Griffin because he's likely done and add Cousins (who was one of the top five quarterbacks of the week as of kickoff for the Sunday night game) if you must, but there's little reason to keep Griffin owned.
As for the other myriad injuries, based on what we know as of Sunday night, Jackson's availability for Week 3 is unknown. It's a bit of a shame because it's a road game in Philadelphia against the organization that so rudely punted him a few months ago, for whatever reason. I think a healthy Jackson would have underwhelmed statistically, but keep this guy owned, for there is upside. He's more WR3 for me than starter, though.
Cincy's Green was listed as probable entering Sunday, so his early exit was frustrating. Green scored in double digits for standard fantasy in 11 games last year. It's premature to assume he'll suit up for Week 3, but his loss would really be felt, and it would make Mohamed Sanupopular. Griffin and Jackson aren’t universally active in fantasy leagues. Green is, so we hope his toe/foot injury doesn't linger. If you can get another top-10 wide receiver for him, though, consider dealing him. Moreno is expected to miss at least a month with his injury, giving Lamar Miller prime opportunity to step up and thrive. On Sunday, Miller didn't do that, scoring four fantasy points. Even if he gets all the Miami running back touches, I won't rank him in the top 20. Later in the afternoon, Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles (ankle) and Chargers running back Ryan Mathews (knee) left games early, and we should learn more about their status Monday.
Second down: What a disappointment the Tennessee Titans' offense was against the Cowboys on Sunday. Quarterback Jake Locker salvaged an average fantasy afternoon with 13 standard points mainly thanks to tight end Delanie Walker breaking a 61-yarder in the third quarter for a touchdown, but otherwise what was supposed to be a dreadful Dallas defense was serviceable. Oh, you don't want the Cowboys' defensive unit in fantasy, but we should be careful about regarding a previously unreliable passer like Locker -- think Cousins or whoever starts for the Rams in Week 3 -- as a top-10 play based on the schedule. Dallas, meanwhile, was impressive against a Titans defense that shut down Charles and the Chiefs in Week 1. DeMarco Murray is averaging 143 rushing yards and 18.5 standard fantasy points through two games. Last year, he had four games all season with more than 14 fantasy points. Some might regard him as a sell-high choice based on durability, but it looks legit.

Third down: Carolina Panthersquarterback Cam Newton made a successful season debut with 281 passing yards and a touchdown in a dominant 24-7 rout of the Detroit Lions, completing half his passes to wide receivers he had never thrown to before. Newton also rushed four times for 19 yards, but, according to ESPN Stats & Info, his two designed rushes ties for his fewest in a game in his career. Is this the new Newton? The scrambler topped 281 passing yards in only one contest all last season. Perhaps he'll act more as a pocket passer than in seasons past, but the bottom line is this is a clear top-10 fantasy quarterback, capable of adapting, and on Sunday he wasn't treated as a sure thing in the fantasy world. Newton did most of his handing off to forgotten Jonathan Stewart, who converted his 15 rushing attempts into a mere 37 yards, but one of them was a touchdown. For those believing a less mobile Newton will mean more value for running backs Stewart and, when healthy, DeAngelo Williams, don't bet on it.

Fourth down: Those automatically sitting players with the unfortunate task of meeting the mighty Seattle Seahawks defense were burned Sunday when Rivers and Antonio Gates had no problem putting up points. Gates tied Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and theNew England Patriots' defense for top standard scoring honors with 27 points, as he caught all seven of his targets for 96 yards and three touchdowns. Rivers threw for 284 yards, doubling his Week 1 standard point total of 12. And this was against the Seahawks, a defense that hadn't permitted a 20-point fantasy performance to a quarterback since the 2012 season! Is Rivers/Gates that special, or are the Seahawks overrated? I'd still call the Seahawks the top fantasy defense, and if they faced any team other than Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos for the big Super Bowl rematch in Week 3, they'd rank first for me. Because it's Denver, they won't, and it's not because of this performance with minus-1 fantasy points. Trust the Seahawks. As for Rivers and Gates, it sure looks as if they have been misjudged. After a below-par Week 1, Rivers ranked poorly for Week 2 according to the ESPN staff, 20th at his position. Last year, he finished as a top-five quarterback. Gates, owned in a paltry 43 percent of standard leagues, will likely be one of the top pickups this week and be back in the positional top 10. As for Mathews, who wasn't productive Sunday, if he's out long term, Donald Brownwill be the hot pickup.

HacheMan · Sep 16, 2014

[h=1]Pickup targets: Cousins, Bortles[/h][h=3]Several available QBs are worth adding for future lineups[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Matt Williamson[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

The NFL was littered with injuries to key skill position players in Week 2. Your fantasy roster, like mine and nearly everyone else's who plays fantasy football, was surely affected in some way because of said injuries. We are only entering Week 3, but it is the time of year that if you don't monitor and manage your roster, you will be left behind by those owners who do.
Below are some names to consider to patch holes or just to possibly upgrade a position that is falling short.

[h=3]Redraft[/h]14-team or larger leagues

<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Bortles
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Blake Bortles, QB, Jacksonville JaguarsThe Jaguars were utterly dominated by Washington on Sunday. So why not get Bortles in there now sooner than later, especially considering how great the rookie was in his first preseason action? Well, the answer to that question is simple: The Jaguars' offensive line and pass protection is simply awful. Chad Henne was sacked an amazing 10 times in Washington. You could see why the Jaguars' organization would be hesitant to get Bortles out there behind such a terrible line, but it still is probably the correct decision.
If you can afford the roster spot, Bortles is worth a look in deeper leagues.
<offer></offer>

<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
Bridgewater
</center>
Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Minnesota VikingsLike the Jaguars, Minnesota was dominated in Week 2 and it is clear that Matt Cassel isn't close to the same quarterback when the offense is missing an immense threat such as Adrian Peterson. Cassel was terrible, throwing four interceptions and completing just half of his passes.
A big difference from Bridgewater's situation than Bortles' is that Minnesota's offensive line is in much better shape (although you wouldn't have known it against the Patriots) and there are certainly more established weapons for Bridgewater to throw to. It might not be long before we see Bridgewater. Add him now in deep leagues.
Others to consider: Davante Adams, Odell Beckham, John Carlson, Jermaine Gresham,Santonio Holmes, Brian Hoyer, Dexter McCluster, Jerick McKinnon, Allen Robinson

12-team leagues

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Damien Williams, RB, Miami DolphinsWith Knowshon Moreno to miss a good chunk of time, Lamar Miller needs help carrying the load in the Miami run game. Much like the Eagles, this is an up-tempo, run-heavy offense that needs multiple backs to execute it and keep one another fresh. Plus, Miller is far from a proven workhorse runner. After what was a close game most of the way in Buffalo, the Dolphins' coaching staff is going to regret having Ryan Tannehill throw the ball 49 times as compared to just 21 rushing attempts. Miami's offensive line was overmatched in this contest, but such offensive imbalance will not be the norm for Miami. Although he didn't catch a pass this week, Williams is a good receiver and could have particular appeal in a PPR league.
Others to consider: Isaiah Crowell, Lance Dunbar, Harry Douglas, Justin Forsett, Latavius Murray, Niles Paul, Brian Quick, Robert Turbin

10-team leagues

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Donald Brown, RB, San Diego ChargersBrown is going to have a role in this offense. When the Chargers unexpectedly signed Brown early in free agency, I looked at him as both Ryan Mathews' andDanny Woodhead's fantasy handcuff, as these two backs obviously have very different roles for San Diego. Also, with Mathews and Woodhead set to become free agents after the season, it made the signing more logical, too, especially with how much the Chargers ran the ball to finish last season.
Against the league's best pass defense, San Diego ran the ball 37 times in very hot conditions, although they averaged just 2.7 yards per rushing attempt. But the Chargers were every bit as physical as the Seahawks in this contest. Of course the story here is the health of Mathews, who is expected to miss 4-5 weeks with a knee injury. Brown's fantasy stock might be ready to soar.

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Walker
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Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee TitansJake Locker played terribly in the first half against Dallas, but overall the offensive vibes in Tennessee have been quite good since Ken Whisenhunt (a former tight end coach, by the way) took over the Titans. Walker has great speed for a tight end, which he showcased on Sunday with his long touchdown reception, giving him a score in each of the first two weeks. Touchdowns are great, but consistency is better, which is exactly what Walker should provide as his 14 targets led all Titans' receivers in Week 2. If Walker is still available in your league, it is time to put a large bid in to acquire his services, especially if the tight end injury bug directly affected your squad. He can help you all season long.
Others to consider: Ahmad Bradshaw, Knile Davis, Aaron Dobson, Andrew Hawkins, Travis Kelce, Bobby Rainey, Mohamed Sanu, Kenny Stills

[h=3]Dynasty[/h]

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Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington RedskinsRobert Griffin wasn't playing poorly before his gruesome ankle injury, but the fact is that Griffin hasn't played as well as Cousins did on Sunday in more than a year. Yes, it was against the Jaguars, but Jacksonville does have a very good defensive line. Protection was a massive problem in Week 1 for the Redskins, but with Cousins behind center, that area of this offense was much improved.
The coaching staff trusts Cousins (probably more so than Griffin) to make changes at the line of scrimmage and go to the right place with the football. Washington wants a balanced offense and they ran the ball 42 times in a game they controlled from the beginning and their receiving weapons are banged up. Overall, Cousins did well in a relief appearance, especially in the first half when he was 14-of-15 passing.
If you have Griffin or not, Cousins is someone to add to your dynasty team, as he has short-term value and who knows, maybe he ends up as the Redskins' (or another franchise's) top quarterback in 2015.

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Alfred Blue, RB, Houston TexansGranted the Texans were playing against the Raiders' terrible run defense, but they blew Oakland out of the water and ended up running the ball 46 times while completely controlling the clock. Arian Foster clearly is the lead guy here, but it seems apparent that Blue is second on the pecking order, as he received 11 carries for 40 yards on Sunday. In a heavy run-first offense, do you trust Foster to stay healthy for 16 games? Plus, what are the chances that Foster is back in Houston next year? In just about all formats, Foster owners should now handcuff him with Blue, but in dynasty, if you have an extra spot, stick him on the bottom of your roster and see what happens.

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Roberts
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Andre Roberts, WR, Washington RedskinsAfter the Redskins lost DeSean Jackson early in the game, Roberts stepped up, catching four passes for 57 yards. He could be a starting option, especially during the bye weeks, if Jackson is to miss extended time. Even if Jackson is back on the field soon, Roberts could be worth rostering in deep dynasty leagues, as Washington's offense was much-improved in Week 2 with Cousins behind center. Remember the Redskins were quick to sign Roberts when free agency opened. Granted, Jackson wasn't in the picture at that point, but clearly they are high on his abilities. Roberts might be the ideal guy to get your dynasty team through the bye weeks.
Others to consider: Justin Brown, Gavin Escobar, Mike Glennon, Branden Oliver, Mark Sanchez

HacheMan · Sep 16, 2014

Free-agent finds for Week 3

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Waiver-wire news changes fast and furious throughout the week as injuries and depth-chart shenanigans overtake us. So be sure to follow me on Twitter by clicking on the link next to my headshot at the bottom of the column, and I'll keep you updated as news warrants. Let's get to the best fantasy roster additions heading into Week 3:

Standard ESPN league finds

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Indianapolis Colts (owned in 23.9 percent of ESPN leagues): Remember, the threshold for inclusion in this column is 50 percent availability, which means players such as Knile Davis, Donald Brown and Khiry Robinson aren't eligible. If they're on your waiver wire, though, they should rank above anyone I'm writing about in today's column. Anyway, Bradshaw scored twice Monday night and has at least put himself into the back half of a platoon with Trent Richardson. In truth, T-Rich played well for much of Monday night, and wound up with 95 yards from scrimmage. But he committed an awful, game-altering fumble, allowing the Philadelphia Eagles back into the game. Should Bradshaw ever become the Colts' every-down back, I don't think he'd last long, particularly because of his constant string of lower-leg injuries. At the very least, Richardson owners should be adding Bradshaw as a legit handcuff.

Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington(8.0 percent): Robert Griffin III will miss extended time with a dislocated ankle, so Cousins will get an long look in coach Jay Gruden's offense. Cousins was solid in relief during an easy win over theJacksonville Jaguars: 22-of-33 for 250 yards, 2 TDs and no turnovers. I hesitate to call Cousins a must-add, but for Bobby Three Sticks owners, Cousins is a viable replacement. He presented a decidedly mixed bag in three starts late last season, showing varied pocket presence and accuracy, but he's a good athlete with a strong enough arm. His talent compares with that of Nick Foles. With the weapons at his disposal in D.C., Foles-like upside is possible.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs (2.0 percent): Kelce saw his usage increase dramatically in Week 2. He's still not the Chiefs' every-down tight end because the team trustsAnthony Fasano's blocking more, but Kelce makes Alex Smith more dangerous and that means more two-TE sets. Kelce saw six targets Sunday and caught four of them for 81 yards; three of those targets and two of those catches came on passes of 15 air yards or more. This player is still raw, but he's a dangerously fast and fluid guy for 6-foot-5 and 260 pounds.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers (43.8 percent): Stewart showed flashes in Week 2. He caught a second-quarter screen and wove dangerously through traffic for 22 yards, took advantage of a big hole on an important fourth-quarter run, and powered into the end zone on the game-clinching TD. And the Detroit Lions did represent a tough matchup. Still, I wasn't overawed at most of Stewart's film. It was just OK. Mainly Stewart looked like a shadow of his pre-injury form. He's big, but he doesn't make many tacklers miss. If DeAngelo Williams misses more time, perhaps Stewart stays in "emergency fantasy starter" territory. Long term, though, I don't have high hopes.

James Jones, WR, Oakland Raiders (2.5 percent): Two seasons ago, Jones led the NFL in receiving TDs. Seems like a long time ago, doesn't it? Jones contributed nine grabs for 112 yards in Week 2 and has two TDs this year, though he also produced an embarrassing highlight as he fumbled after a catch, recovered the ball, ran downfield, and then fumbled again. Anyway, Jones didn't even appear to be part of the Raiders' starting lineup Week 1, but he was in there all day Sunday. My instinct would be to stay away from all of Derek Carr's weapons, because the rookie QB hasn't looked ready yet. But if you must take a chance on a WR, I suppose you could do worse than Jones.

Matt Asiata, RB, Minnesota Vikings (11.9 percent): Enough has been written about Adrian Peterson's legal situation; it's certainly a story that's far more significant than the silly fun of fantasy football. But my job here is to talk about the Vikings' depth chart. In Week 2, without AP, Asiata dominated the Minnesota backfield with 13 carries and five receptions, and scored an early TD. I suppose he's the right guy to add if you're concerned about Peterson's Week 3 availability, though Asiata's ability is underwhelming. Really, he's part-fullback. Remember the days of Jackie Battle starting games? That's pretty much Asiata. It's not like he can't help in any given week, but overall: meh.

Larry Donnell, TE, New York Giants (1.4 percent): Donnell is slow and isn't a great athlete, but I was impressed by how many difficult catches he made in Week 2. That's a good quality when you're grabbing passes from scattershot Eli Manning. Through two games, Donnell has 12 grabs, which puts him in the top 10 among TEs. I'd still add Kelce first, but in a checkdown-heavy Giants offense, Donnell has won the role of Eli's security blanket.

Niles Paul, TE, Washington(1.0 percent): Paul was a stud in Week 2, catching eight passes for 99 yards and a TD. In the absence of injured Jordan Reed, Paul -- a converted WR -- showed impressive speed and body control. Reed is expected to return from his hamstring problem within a matter of weeks, and frankly, Washington needs to involvePierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson more. Still, for one or two more games, it's not a terrible idea to ride Paul's hot hand.

Benjamin Cunningham, RB, St. Louis Rams (1.5 percent): This is just a note to say that if you own Zac Stacy, you're playing with fire if you don't also roster Cunningham. Don't get me wrong: Stacy won this supposed depth-chart battle, and as of now Cunningham runs in a purely supplemental role. That doesn't mean Stacy will last all season, though. Cunningham is his obvious and pure handcuff. Do it.
Other solid waiver adds, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Bobby Rainey, RB, Buccaneers (6.8 percent); Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Panthers (45.3 percent); Markus Wheaton, WR, Steelers (27.1 percent); Josh Gordon, WR, Browns (12.6 percent).
Deeper league finds

Brian Quick, WR, Rams (2.7 percent): I want to like Quick more. He's a third-year breakout candidate who's 6-3 and 218 pounds, and has 14 catches (tied for second among NFL WRs) on 18 targets so far this season. Unfortunately, I don't trust Shaun Hill or Austin Davis or Case Keenum, or whoever else the Rams plan on playing at QB. In addition, there are so many other WRs in St. Louis. Every time I look up, Austin Pettis, Chris Givens, Tavon Austin or Kenny Brittis getting a target, and now Stedman Bailey is set to have his suspension revoked. Quick should be owned in deep leagues. In 10-teamers? Make him prove it one more week.

Mohamed Sanu, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (2.6 percent): It seems that A.J. Green's foot injury isn't serious, and while he could miss Week 3, the Bengals are off in Week 4 and the team expects to have Green thereafter. Sanu did score a long TD on a short pass Sunday in Green's absence, but frankly it looked to me like Brandon Tate was actually the guy running Green's typical routes. I think we've just seen Sanu's best game of the season. (He did complete an incredible bomb throw on a WR option Sunday!)

Damien Williams, RB, Miami Dolphins(0.3 percent): Williams was on my Super-Deep Sleeper list this summer, mainly because I questioned Knowshon Moreno's durability. Now Moreno is out between four and eight weeks because of a dislocated elbow, and Lamar Millerlooks like the starter. But history has shown Miller isn't at his best when forced to be physical, so the team could find itself looking for a platoon-mate. Williams has a chance. He was pretty good (five carries, 19 yards) in limited action in Week 2. Realize also, though, that the team re-signed Daniel Thomas(0.2 percent).

Alfred Blue, RB, Houston Texans (0.5 percent): Another Super-Deep Sleeper of mine, Blue saw significant mop-up action Sunday, using 11 carries to accumulate 40 yards. It's impossible to draw definite conclusions based on what's happening when the score is 27-0, but it looked to me like Blue has passed Jonathan Grimes (1.2 percent) on the Houston depth chart. That could make him the best Texans RB to own in the event that Arian Foster suffers an injury. And considering Foster is on pace for 480 touches from scrimmage, that's a distinct possibility.
Jerick McKinnon, RB Vikings (0.8 percent): McKinnon had four touches Sunday compared to 18 for Asiata, so it seems clear what the pecking order would be for the Vikings without Peterson. But I've already mentioned I don't think Asiata has special talent, and certainly McKinnon is a wonderful raw athlete. Will he put things together as a rookie and become a fantasy factor? Probably not, but it's possible.

Other solid waiver adds for deep leagues about whom I've written in previous weeks: Jake Locker, QB, Titans (11.1 percent); Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns (3.4 percent); Justin Forsett, RB, Ravens (9.6 percent); Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns (15.4 percent); Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars (16.0 percent); Dwayne Allen, TE, Colts (9.1 percent).

HacheMan · Sep 21, 2014

[h=1]Guys I Love, Guys I Hate: Week 3[/h][h=3]Matthew Berry on the players he thinks will exceed or fall short of expectations.[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Matthew Berry[/FONT] | ESPN.com

Opening sentence that seems random and disjointed.

Start of new paragraph that starts to make sense of the first sentence and establishes theme or (hopefully!) funny premise this week.
That was the plan this week. After not doing an opening for Love/Hate last week and instead writing my "Tweeting in a post-Ray Rice world" column, I desperately wanted to get back to the fun of fantasy football.
Then Adrian Peterson happened and, well, I have some more thoughts in a very different column than the Ray Rice one. Like that column, however, it is presented elsewhere on the site, as the thought is that the subject matter belongs on a different platform than a fantasy football column.
So once again, we will get right to it. The usual caveats apply: This is not a start-sit column. If you want to know whether I think you should play one guy over another guy, please check my rankings. And now I am doing flex rankings as well, so you can compare a tight end to a running back or wide receiver.
This is a column about players I think will exceed or fall short of general expectations. In most cases, they are players I have ranked higher or lower than the consensus of my fellow rankers. In some cases we are all high or low on someone, but it's not a typical rank for that player.
Finally, know that this column (and my rankings) are done with ESPN standard scoring and 10-team leagues in mind. These are leagues where most rosters have very good teams and you are deciding between a lot of good options, especially this week with no byes. I know many people play in deeper leagues or with different types of scoring, but this is by far the most popular version of the game on ESPN.
Let's dive in.
[h=3]Quarterbacks I love in Week 3[/h]Matt Ryan, Atlanta: I know, he was brutal last week (and was on the hate list, natch), but that changes tonight. Why? Can we just leave it at "he's back home and indoors?" No? You want actual research this early in the article? Fine. He owns the Bucs. Past four, he's averaged 279.5 yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game. And I don't see that changing tonight. Through the first two games, the only team allowing a higher completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks than the Buccaneers is the Raiders. That's when you know you have a bad stat: when it starts with "only" and ends with "the Raiders." And you don't need me to tell you to start Julio Jones, but he's a worthy consideration in games like our Eliminator version of Gridiron Challenge. Ryan has thrown for 303 yards on deep passes (15-plus yards downfield), 56 more than any other quarterback. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has allowed opponents to complete 71.4 percent of deep passes, the highest rate in the league. Keep in mind that Tampa Bay has faced Derek Anderson and Austin Davis.
Jay Cutler, Chicago: Make no mistake, I'm a Bitter Berry at the Bears after last week's "Oh, we don't think Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are gonna play and if they do they will be hurt and, oh, it's a Sunday night game and oh, wow, this guy that Jay Cutler didn't even know was going to play until two hours before game time suddenly has three touchdowns while sitting on my bench," but ... dude is gonna sling it. Fourth-most pass-happy team in the league gets an extra day to heal up and face the Jets? You realize no team in the NFL has given up more touchdown passes than the Jets, right? Sign me up for being behind on the scoreboard Monday morning and watching Jay Cutler lead me to a victory on "Monday Night Football" on ESPN and the WatchESPN app. Did I just fit a company plug into my write-up? You're damn right I did, just like Cutler will fit it through defenders and into his receivers' hands.

Kirk Cousins, Washington: Every week, I talk to an ESPN Insider, get their super-deep football thoughts and translate them to fantasy. This weekit was with Louis Riddick, and among the topics we touched on was Cousins. In short, ignore last year's numbers. He's a good fit for Jay Gruden's offense and has more weapons at his disposal thanAndy Dalton (Gruden's previous quarterback, as Bengals offensive coordinator) ever did. In a game with a lot of expected scoring, Cousins' first game out is against a defense that is top 10 so far this season in most fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Have him in the top 12 this week and for the rest of the season.
If you're desperate: Since last season, Ryan Tannehill has averaged 14.6 fantasy points per game at home with only one single-digit game in nine outings. The Chiefs are decimated on defense and have already allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. ... The same number of fantasy points as Colin Kaepernick, two fewer than Drew Breesand three short of Nick Foles; Geno Smith hasn't been great, but he hasn't been terrible either. If you're outside the top 12 or so, you could do worse than rolling with him against a Bears secondary that just lost Peanut Tillman.
[h=3]Quarterbacks I hate in Week 3[/h]Tony Romo, Dallas: With all the craziness off the field this season, we've barely had time to register the craziness on the field, including the fact that Scott Linehan has become a grind-it-out, ground-and-pound playcaller, with only three teams having more rushing attempts than Dallas the first two weeks of the season. Small sample size and skewed by last week, but still. Dallas knows what you and I know: To win with this defense, they need to control time of possession, run the ball and limit Romo's exposure. He used to just fling it deep; in the past three years, only Drew Brees threw more deep touchdowns (15 yards-plus) than Romo did. This season, Romo has yet to throw a deep TD, while throwing two interceptions on deep attempts. The Rams have allowed the sixth-fewest yards on deep balls this season. Now, that's mostly because they've been gashed on the ground -- they've faced just Matt Cassel and Josh McCown -- but still. Why wouldn't that continue here? Lots of Romo handing it off to DeMarco Murray in this one. If you get points for that, start him. Otherwise, not a top-12 play for me.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh: Once. In his past nine road games, Big Ben has thrown for more than two touchdowns only once. And that was against the Patriots in a 55-31 shootout. The Panthers are definitely weaker without Greg Hardy, but even without him, this is a great defense. Since 2013, only the Seahawks have allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than the Panthers have.
[h=3]Running backs I love in Week 3[/h]Doug Martin and Bobby Rainey, Tampa Bay: If you read me at all in the preseason, you know I thought Doug Martin was being overdrafted and that I liked the cut of Charles Sims' jib. Then Sims went down and then I was on Rainey. Whether it's health, talent or something else, Rainey is the best running back Tampa has these days. But this is such a good matchup, even Martin can't screw it up. Probably. If you have him and he's active (you'll want to check the inactives list for this one), you gotta start him. If Martin is inactive, Rainey is a top-10 play. And if Martin is a go, Rainey is a nice high risk/high reward flex play. The Falcons have the worst run defense in the NFL.
Joique Bell, Detroit: Only one team has given up more rushing yards than Green Bay, who is very susceptible up the middle. Bell is The Lions Running Back You Want (his legal name) and will have top-20 success against the Packers in a high-scoring game.
Knile Davis, Kansas City: When he has gotten a shot, he's produced like a top-10 back. As long as Jamaal Charles is out, Davis is a must-start.
DeMarco Murray, Dallas: A guys who totally owns the Rams (in two career games against St. Louis, Murray has averaged 214 rushing yards per game, including a career-best 253 in 2011), Murray is my No. 1 running back this week. See Romo, Tony.
Stevan Ridley, New England: With the usual caveats that things can always get screwy when you trust a Patriots running back, it probably comes down to whether or not you think the Patriots will win. Since last season, Ridley has been on the field for 292 snaps in New England wins compared with 221 for Shane Vereen. But in losses, Vereen outsnaps Ridley 134-74. Feel the Patriots crush Oakland here, and Ridley is clearly out of the doghouse, so this is a nice spot for him, as the Raiders have allowed the most rushing yards in the league in the first two games of the season.
If you're desperate: When he has gotten a chance, Steven Jackson has actually been decent this season (4.3 yards per carry), but game flow the last two weeks (shootout with New Orleans, losing big to Cincy) has dictated that they didn't go run-heavy. The Falcons are never going to be ground-and-pound, but I could see closer to 15-16 touches tonight than the 11-12 he's been getting, and against Tampa Bay's banged-up defense, that should be enough to be flex-worthy. ... Chris Ivory has scored twice in two weeks, leads the league in yards after contact and gets a Bears team allowing he most rushing yards after contact this season. ... NoRyan Mathews means increased roles for other Charger running backs, including pass-catchingDanny Woodhead. The Bills have allowed an NFL-high 20 receptions by opposing running backs this season, and they weren't all to Matt Forte.
[h=3]Running backs I hate in Week 3[/h]Frank Gore, San Francisco: In his past five against the Cardinals, Gore has averaged just 62 rushing yards per game, including only 14 yards on 13 rushes last year in Arizona. Since last season, the Cardinals have allowed the fewest rushing yards and fantasy points to opposing running backs. And despite the injuries, they are third-best against the run this season, too. Gore has had two cushy matchups this year (Dallas and Chicago) and has yet to top 70 yards rushing in either of them. They are limiting his touches (averaging 15 a game), so you're hoping for a score here. I hate having to hope for a score.
Shane Vereen, New England: See Ridley, Stevan. He could easily go off. And it is the Patriots. Maybe James White gets 30 carries and Brandon Bolden has three scores. Who knows? But last week's usage and the weak Raiders opponent makes me nervous.
Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh: You probably don't have better options, but no red zone carries last week (the first time since Week 12 of last season) and since last season, the Panthers have allowed only four rushing touchdowns, fewest in the league. Outside my top 10, where he normally sits, so he makes the hate list this week.
[h=3]Wide receivers I love in Week 3[/h]Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay: Last chance to buy low. Crushes the Falcons since joining Tampa Bay, averaging 112.3 yards per game, and he had three touchdowns against them in last year's home-and-home. And stop me if you've heard this before, but Atlanta's defense is not so good. In addition to everything else, the Falcons are tied for the third-most touchdowns allowed to opposing wide receivers.

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona: Say what you want about Drew Stanton (what's your favorite tidbit? Mine is that his dad is named Gaylord), but at least he looks for Larry. Ten targets and six receptions from Stanton last week and came within six inches of a score; now they face San Francisco. Last five games against the 49ers, Fitzgerald has averaged 89 yards a game and scored two touchdowns. This season, the 49ers have allowed the second-most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. Top-20 play this week.

Mike Wallace, Miami: Wanna win a bar bet? Since Week 12 of last season, Eric Decker has nine touchdowns. He's the only one with more scores than ... Mike Wallace. He has six. And he easily could have had more if Tannehill had any chemistry with him at all. Last chance to buy Wallace at below top-20 prices. He's a legit WR2 this season. The Chiefs are banged-up on defense, including the fact that they probably will be without Eric Berry. K.C. has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers.
DeSean Jackson, Washington: Think he plays, and that he plays well against his former team. That simple. There are stats, there are trends and then there's pure bitterness and desire for revenge. Go, D-Jax.
If you're desperate: Very quietly, Brian Quick is among the league leaders in receiving yards, receptions and targets. He has a quality matchup with Dallas and he's available in 78 percent of leagues. ... At home, back in the dome, there is no way Marques Colston doesn't have a bounce-back game. ... It's a little dicey because of the hamstring injury, but if Eric Decker is active Monday night, I like him a lot against Chicago in what should be a higher-scoring game than people might think.
[h=3]Wide receivers I hate in Week 3[/h]Victor Cruz, New York Giants: Dropping passes and complaints, what happened to the confident salsa dancer that would blow by guys on the field? Cruz is on pace for a career-worst 44 percent reception rate. Even last season, when it all went horribly wrong, Cruz caught 60 percent of his targets. Need to see if before I'm starting him.
Wes Welker, Denver: Peyton Manning is a timing guy, and it's been a while since they've been on the same field together. Add to that the obvious bad matchup on the road at Seattle. Since last season, no team has allowed fewer receiving yards or fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than the Seahawks. Not a top-20 guy this week.
Markus Wheaton, Pittsburgh: Love his talent, he'll make a good buy-low after this week, but this is entirely about matchup. Since 2013, only the Dolphins have allowed fewer receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers than the Panthers have.
[h=3]Tight ends I love in Week 3[/h]Delanie Walker, Tennessee: It's legit. Jake Locker's favorite red zone target, Walker leads all players with 128 receiving yards out of the slot this season, and he has scored a touchdown. Meanwhile, the Bengals have allowed the third-most receptions by opposing slot receivers this season. You could do worse than Walker and probably already have.
Greg Olsen, Carolina: "Cam Newton scrambles ... Greg Olsen covered ... goes through progression, Kelvin Benjamin is double-covered ... uh ... looks back to Olsen. First down, Panthers!" One of only three tight ends with at least six receptions and 70 yards in each of his first two games this season (Jimmy Graham and Antonio Gates are the others). The Steelers just gave up two scores to Owen Daniels and have given up the seventh-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends.
Niles Paul, Washington: As mentioned in last week's "Love," Paul isn't Jordan Reed, but he is good. An athletic former wide receiver, this is not a fluke. Gruden's offense uses the tight end a decent amount, you just didn't realize it when he was in Cincinnati because Jermaine Greshamand Tyler Eifert were splitting looks. Second in the NFL in receiving yards among tight ends and top-six in fantasy points, Paul's tied for the team lead in targets (eight) with Cousins under center. One score last week, he actually could have had two, but one was overturned. Good matchup in a high-scoring game: Since last season, the Eagles have allowed the ninth-most yards to opposing tight ends.
If you're desperate: Jared Cook (I know, I know) has had two consecutive weeks of four receptions and 40-plus yards. All three of the passing touchdowns the Cowboys have allowed this season have gone to tight ends. ... Charles Clay is 10th among tight ends in targets so far this season. It just hasn't resulted in big numbers yet. It's mostly dump-off type stuff, but you get enough looks, good things happen eventually. Against the Chiefs and that banged-up defense, he's a strong bet for top-15 numbers.
[h=3]Tight ends I hate in Week 3:[/h]Jason Witten, Dallas: See Romo, Tony. Quiet all year, I don't see that changing Sunday against a Rams team that, since 2013, has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
[h=3]Defense/special teams I love in Week 3[/h]Indianapolis Colts: Available in 88 percent of leagues, the Colts have averaged a whopping 16.7 fantasy points per game, including two defensive scores. The Jaguars' offensive line made Washington look like world-beaters last week, giving up 10 sacks. That's not a misprint. They've allowed 13 sacks in total. Next-closest team has seven. Dude.
Houston Texans: Happiness is your defense against Eli Manning.
If you're desperate: Not a great matchup, but the Buffalo Bills' defense has been strong this season, including demolishing Miami last week. And they get the ol' 1 p.m. home game against a West Coast team.
[h=3]Defense/special teams I hate in Week 3[/h]Kansas City Chiefs: Banged up, on the road, in the heat ... this defense has scored a total of two points this season. Two. They played better against Denver than they did against the Titans in Week 1, but I believe Miami bounces back from last week and plays well at home. Not a top-10 play this week.

St. Louis Rams: Averaging only three fantasy points per game and no Chris Long. They have one sack in two games this season, and for all the grief Tony Romo gets about turnovers, since the start of 2013, the Cowboys have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses.

HacheMan · Sep 22, 2014

Slow-starting stars to target
Four standouts who could yield trade bargains; plus, top waiver-wire pickups

By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]KC Joyner[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

One surprising question that reoccurred in this week's ESPN Fantasy Football Surround chatinvolved fantasy owners who asked whether they should replace Matt Forte in their starting lineups due to his poor Week 2 performance (three points) and a seemingly tough "Monday Night Football" matchup against the New York Jets.
Forte has had only 11 games in his 93-game career as bad or worse than his three-point total last week, according to ESPN Stats & Information. So the idea that he should be benched shows that one subpar performance can cause fantasy owners to consider throwing in the towel on anyone, even star players with a long history of upper-tier point totals.
This week's Fantasy Foresight article will attempt to help fantasy owners take advantage of this mindset by identifying a number of star trade targets who could be available due to recent struggles.
Also included below are three players whose superb Week 3 performances will continue this season, three players who likely will not replicate their Week 3 success or struggles, and three waiver-wire suggestions heading into Week 4.
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[h=3]Buy-low trade targets[/h]

Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
He isn't yet back to being the player who can push a team to victory by himself, but Gronkowski ranks fourth in tight end points (23) and seventh in tight end targets (24) following the Week 3 Sunday contests.
If history is any indicator, his workload level should increase in the near future. Be sure to oblige any Gronkowski owner who is dissatisfied with his current results.

Darren Sproles, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Washington was determined to not let the Eagles' run game get in gear. According to ESPN Stats & Information, this led the Redskins to load the box (a term defined as having more defenders in the box than the offense has available blockers) on 10 of Philadelphia's 25 rushing attempts. This strategy worked to the tune of allowing only 16 yards on those loaded-box carries, and it helped hold Sproles, who had a combined 97 rushing yards and two touchdowns in Weeks 1 and 2, to only 20 rushing yards and zero scores.
Other teams aren't likely to adopt that loaded-box tactic in the future, as it allowed Nick Folesto throw for 325 yards and three touchdowns, so look for Sproles to return to his impact rushing days soon.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
It is very difficult to get a bargain price on a player of Rodgers' caliber, but this may be the time to try to barter at such a level. Rodgers has posted 10 or fewer fantasy points only 10 times when playing full games in his career, and two of those performances have occurred in the first three games of this season.
He is the caliber of quarterback who would already be expected to turn this trend around under most circumstances, and with future matchups against Chicago (twice), Minnesota (twice), New Orleans, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Tampa Bay, the odds that this subpar pace will continue are comically low.

Trent Richardson, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Richardson's main issue in his subpar 2013 season was that the Colts gave him good run blocking on only 29.3 percent of his rush attempts, which was the second-lowest good blocking rate (GBR) of any running back with 100 or more carries. (GBR measures how often a team's blockers give the ball carrier good blocking, which is very roughly defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt.) This year, that trend has turned around, as the Colts' GBR on Richardson's run plays has shot up to 43.9 percent.
Richardson has also shown a significant increase in production on those rush attempts, as his good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA, a production measurement for run plays with good blocking) has moved from 6.1 last year to 7.5 this year. He is also leading the Colts in rush attempts at or inside the opponent's 5-yard line (4). Those goal-line carries have yet to lead to a touchdown, in part because Richardson has received good blocking on only one of his four goal-line carries. However, if that trend starts to follow the rest of the aforementioned blocking trends, Richardson is going to finally live up to his collegiate reputation as an impact ball carrier.

[h=3]Week 3 performances that will continue[/h]

Rashad Jennings, RB, New York Giants
Gaining 176 yards on 34 carries is always going to impress, but what really stood out about the Giants' ground game in Week 3 is how well the club varied its attack. Early on, New York leaned on counters and isolations that physically challenged the Texans. Once Houston adjusted to that by shooting the gaps, New York changed up and started running zone plays with equal success.
The Giants then mixed in some pitchouts in the latter portion of the game once they had the Texans reeling. This type of play-call variance brings to mind the ground game of New York's recent Super Bowl glory days, and bodes quite well for Jennings to keep up at an RB1 pace.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
The big question mark coming into the season was whether Maclin would be able to take over the vertical pass receiver role at which DeSean Jackson excelled in 2013. So far, Maclin has racked up 27 fantasy points on vertical passes (aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield) in three games, or nine points per game. That pace is higher than the 8.25 vertical fantasy points per game set by Jackson last season.

Nick Foles, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
The aforementioned trends of teams loading the box against the Eagles -- and Maclin's superb success on vertical passes -- has helped lead to Foles topping all quarterbacks in vertical fantasy points per game (11.67) so far this year. Foles finished the 2013 season ranked third in that category (8.77) so his success here is not a short-term anomaly.

[h=3]Week 3 performances that won't continue[/h]

Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington Redskins
No one expects Cousins to continue to score 27 points per game as he did against Philadelphia, so the real question is: Will he keep posting starter-caliber point totals? The schedule would say no, as Washington has a Thursday night game against the quickly improving Giants defense, followed by a home game against Seattle and a trip to Arizona to face the Cardinals. Then, after a home game against Tennessee, the schedule includes four road games, one home game and a bye over the next six weeks.

Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos
Thomas came into the season as one of the most overvalued wide receivers in fantasy football, but it is still amazing that he has scored only 21 fantasy points in three games, and posted a five-point dud in Week 3. Part of this has to do with a cornerback schedule that had him face two red-rated cornerbacks (red being the toughest caliber of matchup) in those contests. The rest of his schedule is currently free from red-rated cornerback matchups, so after a bye in Week 4, look for Thomas to get back to somewhere closer to his 2013 production level.

Randall Cobb, WR, Green Bay Packers
Cobb has a phenomenally favorable cornerback coverage schedule the rest of the season. He is slated to face eight green-rated cornerbacks (green indicating the most favorable caliber of matchup) and only one red-rated cornerback in his final 13 games. Anyone who has him on a fantasy roster would do well to immediately forgive and forget his two-point performance from Week 3, and instead concentrate on what should be a very bright future.

[h=3]Three waiver-wire pickups to make[/h]

San Diego Chargers defense/special teams (owned in 3.2 percent of ESPN leagues)
San Diego had to travel across the country in Week 2 to play an early game against an offense with C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson and Sammy Watkins. Despite registering zero turnovers, this group still came away with 10 fantasy points due in part to tallying three sacks.
The Chargers' sack total should dramatically improve next week when they host a Jacksonville squad that has arguably the worst offensive line in the NFL and has nowhere near the skill-position talent level of Buffalo. This makes San Diego possibly the best stream-start D/ST on the Week 4 waiver wire.

Andrew Hawkins, WR, Cleveland Browns (owned in 14.9 percent of ESPN leagues)
Hawkins has more fantasy points in PPR leagues (44) than Cordarrelle Patterson(40), DeSean Jackson (38), Percy Harvin (36), T.Y. Hilton (34) and Sammy Watkins (34). This isn't a matter of his having combined one big point total with a couple of smaller point totals, as Hawkins has posted 16, 13 and 15 points this year (PPR scoring), respectively. Despite this, he is owned in less than 15 percent of ESPN leagues. This has got to change.

Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints (owned in 57.8 percent of ESPN leagues)
Cooks came into the season as a leading candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and lived up to that billing with a 14-point showing in Week 1. All of this evidently wasn't convincing enough for some fantasy owners, as Cooks saw his ESPN league ownership percentage plummet by double digits (minus-10.5 percent) after putting up four points in Week 2.
A strong Week 3 stat line (eight receptions, 74 yards) and upcoming games against Dallas and Tampa Bay should turn his reputation back around, and reward those who put a waiver claim in on him this week.

HacheMan · Sep 22, 2014

[h=1]Many top QBs struggling early[/h][h=3]Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady among QBs underperforming[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Tristan H. Cockcroft[/FONT] | ESPN.com

If you feel as though the 2014 season has been a little less pass-oriented and a little more run-oriented, you're not mistaken. Through nearly three complete weeks of NFL action, and specifically the first 47 scheduled games of the season, the numbers support it. Consider this position-by-position breakdown of fantasy production through 47 games:
QB: 1,408 FPTS, down 6.6 percent from 2013 and 3.4 percent from the 2011-13 seasons combined.
RB: 1,555 FPTS, up 13.8 percent from 2013 and 7.1 percent from 2011-13.
WR: 1,821 FPTS, down 9.3 percent from 2013 and 7.3 percent from 2011-13.
TE: 679 FPTS, down 6.5 percent from 2013 and 5.7 percent from 2011-13.

Much of it has been the disappointing performances of several big-name quarterbacks: Aaron Rodgers has 46 fantasy points to rank eighth at the position thus far, Drew Brees has 49 fantasy points to rank seventh, Matthew Stafford has 45 fantasy points to rank 10th and Cam Newton has missed a game and has 30 fantasy points to rank 27th. They were selected second, third, fifth and sixth among quarterbacks in the preseason. But perhaps that's less a trend than a buy-low opportunity?
• Speaking of Rodgers, this wasn't what fantasy owners were expecting when they made him a first-round selection, on average, in ESPN leagues this preseason. Through three weeks, his 46 fantasy points has him on a seasonal pace of 245.
Let's stave off Rodgers panic: Rodgers' 46 fantasy points certainly aren't the fewest he has scored in a three-game span in his career. In fact, twice during the first half of 2013 alone, he scored that few or fewer fantasy points during a three-game span, tallying 46 from Weeks 7-9 and 41 from Weeks 3-6 (the Green Bay Packers had a Week 4 bye). And in 2012, Rodgers scored just 41 fantasy points in the first three weeks of the season, a good omen because he finished that season with 329, the 16th-highest single-season fantasy point total by an NFL quarterback.
• Speaking of players heating up after slow starts, let's consider single-season leaders only using statistics accrued from Week 4 forward. Five players in history scored 300 fantasy points in the season's final 14 weeks, and all five of them did so in what were record-setting campaigns:
LaDainian Tomlinson, 366 in 2006 (410 total): He's the all-time, single-season record holder for fantasy points, as well as for touchdowns (31).
Aaron Rodgers, 319 in 2011 (385 total): He set, at the time, the record for fantasy points by a quarterback in a season.
Peyton Manning, 316 in 2013 (406 total): He set the NFL record for passing touchdowns, with 55, and passing yards, with 5,477.
Tom Brady, 308 in 2007 (378 total): He set, at the time, the NFL record for passing touchdowns, with 50.
Drew Brees, 304 in 2011 (380 total): He set, at the time, the NFL record for passing yards, with 5,476.
What that tells you is that all-time great campaigns tend to start as such, so while any 0-3 fantasy football team can most certainly rally, carry-your-team-on-his-back type players tend to already have begun making their statements by now.
• Through three weeks -- pending Monday night's action -- Andrew Luck is your leader in fantasy points, with 74. That's the worst three-week total by the NFL's leader since 2009, when Peyton Manning held the lead with a mere 63 points.
Five players managed at least 74 fantasy points through three weeks in the previous four seasons combined, for a total of seven instances: Manning, with 90 in 2013 and 76 in 2010; Brady, with 85 in 2011; Robert Griffin III, with 77 in 2012; Brees, with 76 in 2011; and Michael Vick, with 75 in 2010 and 74 in 2013.

• Brady's season-opening struggles have been a topic in this space previously, and now, through three games, he has just 31 fantasy points. It's actually not his worst start to a season; he scored just 29 fantasy points through three weeks in 2003. That was the year that Brady finished with 206 fantasy points, his worst single-season total in any of his 11 years in which he started all 16 New England Patriots games.
Brady scored 34 fantasy points through three weeks of 2006, 41 through three weeks of 2013, and 42 fantasy points through three weeks of both 2005 and 2009. It's that 2009 campaign that offers even the slightest glimmer of hope: That was the year he finished with 261 fantasy points to rank seventh among quarterbacks, meaning he scored 219 in his final 13 games, a total exceeded by only Rodgers (269), Brett Favre (234) and Tony Romo (220) during that time span.
• Thanks to the Atlanta Falcons' (28 fantasy points) and Indianapolis Colts' (17) defense/special teams performances in Week 3, we saw something that we hadn't in the NFL in nearly 40 years. If you recall, both the Falcons and Colts scored negative fantasy points from their defense/special teams in both Weeks 1 and 2, making this only the second time since 1960 that two defense/special teams managed 15-plus fantasy points in a week directly following two consecutive weeks with a negative score; the Cleveland Browns and New England Patriots did it in Week 5 of the 1975 season.
The Falcons, in fact, by scoring 28 fantasy points, matched the single-game record for a D/ST that had negative scores in each of the previous two weeks. Care for an eerie coincidence? One of the teams with a share of that record -- and the most recent one to do it -- was the 1984Washington Redskins, who entered Week 3 with a total of minus-7 -- that's identical to the Falcons' Weeks 1-2 total this season -- and promptly scored 28 fantasy points in Week 3. Oh, in addition, the Redskins scored their 28 in a home game against a division rival, in this case the New York Giants; you'll recall that the Falcons hosted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this past Thursday.
Believers in the Falcons' D/ST -- and there are precious few of you, judging by their 7.9 percent ownership as of Monday morning -- might be happy to hear this: That 1984 Redskins team went on to score 195 fantasy points for the season, earning the No. 4 ranking among defense/special teams units that year.

HacheMan · Sep 22, 2014

Four Downs: Big day for NFC East QBs

By Eric Karabell | ESPN Insider

NFC East quarterbacks put on quite the statistical show Sunday afternoon, with an exciting shootout that wasn't decided until the final minutes in Philadelphia, a massive comeback by theDallas Cowboys, and the two-time Super Bowl champion quarterback who leads the New York Giants looking considerably better than he had in a while. On a day when several big-name quarterbacks either in the draft-day top 10 or close to it disappointed, perhaps it's time to rethink how this division's signal-callers changed their fantasy value.

Let's start with Nick Foles and Kirk Cousins, who provided two of the signature performances of the day. Foles leads a balanced Philadelphia Eagles attack, but for the second time in three weeks, backup Mark Sanchez was throwing on the sideline, ready to play, as Foles received punishment from opposing defenders and appeared too injured to continue. Alas, he continued, and now has produced three consecutive and significant comebacks, eclipsing 300 passing yards each time. Foles was historic and terrific last season -- only two interceptions -- and so far he has certainly been successful, but with the Eagles losing offensive linemen left and right, and Foles being thrown around like a rag doll, it begs the question of whether he'll be able to last all 16 games. The Eagles' defense looks awful, leading to early deficits. The running game has been largely ineffective, with LeSean McCoy underachieving. It's obvious that Foles belongs among the top-10 fantasy quarterbacks, but make sure you have a strong backup and consider selling high.

Cousins' first start of the season went exceedingly well for his owners in the 5.9 percent of ESPN standard leagues in which he was active (17 quarterbacks were started in more leagues). Is Cousins a must-start now after throwing for 427 yards and three touchdowns? Not yet, though he will be enticing against the Giants on Thursday. Then Cousins faces the Seattle Seahawks and a road tilt at the Arizona Cardinals, which doesn't figure to be fun. Cousins impressed with pocket presence, his arm is strong enough, he's able to make the passes necessary, and the weapons are there for him. He struggled when the Eagles sent at least five pass rushers in the second half, though, going 3-for-11 with an interception. If comparing options, I still like the San Diego Chargers' Philip Rivers, the San Francisco 49ers' Colin Kaepernick, the Seahawks' Russell Wilson and the next fellow better, but it was an impressive outing for Cousins, and one worth investing in.

After averaging 10 points per game in his first two games, Tony Romo put up 15 points Sunday.

That next guy is oft-undervalued Cowboys starter Tony Romo, who brought his team back on the road at the St. Louis Rams. The Cowboys won 34-31, with Romo racking up 15 fantasy points. Romo, to reiterate a popular theme around here, is better than most fantasy owners realize, an annual top-10 point provider who gets overlooked due to his lack of playoff success, which isn't significant in fantasy. Romo is not off to a wonderful start, and it's likely his offseason back surgery is playing some role in that. But the team has consistently said he's getting stronger and improving, and that appeared to be the case Sunday. Dallas will be in numerous shootouts this season, and DeMarco Murray, who has rushed for 100 yards each week so far, can do only so much. Romo, withDez Bryant to throw to and a nice schedule remaining, is someone to buy, and I say he ends up as a top-10 quarterback yet again.

And finally there's Eli Manning in northern New Jersey, looking crisp in a blowout win over the Houston Texans. Manning is the one NFC East quarterback I can't make a case for top-10 inclusion, and truth be told, Manning has never really been a dominant fantasy option. The reason why his improved play matters so much is that it opened holes for running back Rashad Jennings, who certainly took advantage by racking up 34 carries for 176 yards and a touchdown, and it also made Salsa-dancin' wide receiver Victor Cruz relevant again. Cruz scored his first touchdown since Week 4 of last season and topped 100 yards. In the first two weeks, according to ESPN Stats & Information research, Manning was 7-for-16 for 84 yards and two interceptions when targeting Cruz, who also dropped several passes. On Sunday, Manning was 5-for-6 to Cruz. Tight endLarry Donnell and wide receiver Rueben Randle each look relevant for deeper formats as well. Put simply, Manning doesn't need to be owned, but if he continues to receive protection and plays respectably, his top weapons become fantasy starters.

Second down: Sticking with quarterbacks, one of the key themes to watch Sunday was the play of older, established stars. New Orleans Saints star Drew Brees was accurate and methodical in what became a 20-9 win over the Minnesota Vikings, but more was expected since it was a home game. On the road, Brees has still been top-10 the past few years, but he normally dominates at home. On Sunday he did not. Still, I don't see how anyone can ever sit Brees. I do think it's time to move on from the New England Patriots' Tom Brady. He has no downfield weapons other than Julian Edelman, the only Patriot with more than five receptions in a game this season, and it shows. A touchdown to tight end Rob Gronkowski -- it should have been two, at least -- salvaged a 13-point day, but at home against the Oakland Raiders, that's not good enough. Brady probably falls behind Cousins -- hard to believe -- in the pecking order now. Finally, Aaron Rodgers was terrible in Detroit, providing just 10 fantasy points, his worst full fantasy game in a few years. To some, it's panic time regarding Rodgers, but I'm not there yet. According to ESPN Stats & Information data, Rodgers has underthrown receivers 11 times over the past two weeks, but that doesn't seem indicative of future problems to me. I'm still buying low on Rodgers, Eddie Lacy and his top wide receivers.

Third down: Another Sunday theme was that of reserve running backs seeing opportunities, several of whom rewarded their fantasy owners. Once it was clear that top-three overall pick Jamaal Charles of the Kansas City Chiefs was deemed inactive, Knile Davis became far more popular, and he responded with a terrific performance at Miami, earning 32 carries and turning them into 132 yards and 17 fantasy points. If Charles misses more time, Davis is a must-play. The Texans were without injured Arian Foster, and Alfred Blueresonated upside with 78 rushing yards, though his touches were held in check by the Giants opening up a huge lead. The Chargers' Donald Brown took over for injured Danny Woodhead (who was replacing injuredRyan Mathews) and was a fantasy provider based on volume of touches, not necessarily quality. Bernard Pierce missed the game for the Baltimore Ravens, and it wasn't Justin Forsett who stepped up, but rather Lorenzo Taliaferro, who is owned in just 0.2 percent of ESPN leagues and didn't have a rushing attempt this season. He instantly became one of the top Week 4 pickups by rambling for 91 yards and a touchdown. Pierce will probably get another opportunity when healthy, but Taliaferro, a power back who produced major numbers his final year at Coastal Carolina, looked terrific.

Fourth down: Entering the Sunday night tilt, no tight end scored more than 10 standard fantasy points in Week 3, which is quite surprising albeit aberrant. There is star power at tight end, with Jimmy Graham of the Saints still No. 1 despite a 5-point fantasy game, Denver'sJulius Thomas scoring his fifth touchdown of the young season and Gronkowski still working his way up for overall snaps. There is depth, though, something those owning Ravens tight endDennis Pitta will need since his season is likely over because of a hip injury. Pitta, seventh in tight end ownership, will be replaced in Baltimore by veteran Owen Daniels, a worthy pickup who could be a top-10 option. In addition to Daniels, check out Donnell, Washington's Niles Paul, Kansas City's Travis Kelce and Dwayne Allen of the Indianapolis Colts.