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[h=1]Free-agent finds for Week 4[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Christopher Harris[/FONT] | ESPN.com

Waiver-wire news changes fast and furious throughout the week as injuries and depth-chart shenanigans overtake us. So be sure to follow me on Twitter by clicking on the link next to my headshot at the bottom of the column, and I'll keep you updated as news warrants. Let's get to the best fantasy roster additions heading into Week 4, and remember that byes start this week:
Standard ESPN league finds
Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers (owned in 37.3 percent of ESPN leagues): I'm assuming this will be the final week for Benjamin on this list (which requires lower than 50 percent ownership); he's coming off a 115-yard night in Week 3. If only someone would've told you that Benjamin was the rookie receiver you need to own. Oh, wait, they did. There's only one guy on the waiver wire on whom it's worth spending a significant portion of your FAAB, and it's the Panthers rookie.
Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, Baltimore Ravens (1.6 percent): Taliaferro has danced around the "deep" portion of this list for a couple weeks, but he probably does deserve a promotion based on 18 carries for 91 yards and a score in Week 3. Bernard Pierce was reportedly close to playing Sunday with his injured thigh, and while there's no guarantee he immediately ascends back into a pure starting role, it doesn't seem likely that he'll be frozen out altogether. That probably means the Ravens' backfield has devolved into a three-headed mess, with Justin Forsett also around. On tape, I thought Taliaferro looked a lot like Pierce: big kid, some acceleration, not a ton of wiggle. He was good; not necessarily a future star, but good.

Brian Quick, WR, St. Louis Rams(21.7 percent): I suppose you're allowed to add Quick. He's a big guy (6-foot-3, 218 pounds) who leads all Rams receivers with 21 targets (no other WR has more than 10), and he did just score his first TD of the season on a 51-yard bomb from Austin Davis on Sunday. I remain skeptical, though, not because Quick isn't an interesting prospect, but because I have doubts that (a) the QB situation in St. Louis will resolve in any Ram's favor; and (b) the wide variety of other WRs won't keep getting in Quick's way. Note, however, that the Rams are off in Week 4.

Jordan Matthews, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (3.7 percent): I'm on record as saying Matthews was my No. 3 choice in dynasty rookie drafts this summer, behind onlySammy Watkins and Mike Evans. His eight-catch, two-TD Week 3 performance illustrated the kind of possession and red zone threat Matthews can be. Jeremy Maclin is the No. 1 in Philly, but the reason to consider adding Matthews is if you're convinced he's on his way to stealing the No. 2 job from Riley Cooper. It hasn't officially happened yet (Matthews didn't play on the Eagles' eight two-WR snaps Sunday), but it could be coming.
Owen Daniels, TE, Ravens (5.9 percent): Dennis Pitta is out for the season with a hip injury, and Daniels is his replacement. Injuries have taken a toll on Daniels, and he's not the dashing seam threat we remember from previous years. That said, he has a long history with new Ravens coordinator Gary Kubiak, and he put together a two-TD effort in Week 2. I'd have to see more production before I'd consider putting him in my weekly top 10, but Daniels probablyis a top-20 TE right now, and as such, may be the best Pitta replacement on your waiver wire.
Alfred Blue, RB, Houston Texans (3.3 percent): Blue bypassed Jonathan Grimes on Houston's depth chart in Week 2, and when Arian Foster's injured hamstring wouldn't allow him to play against New York on Sunday, Blue got a chance to carry the mail. He was OK, with 88 yards on 14 total touches. A big guy (6-foot-2 and 223 pounds) who doesn't run anyone over or make anyone miss, Blue was a Super-Deep Sleeper of mine this summer and currently stands as Foster's must-handcuff. But Foster probably returns this week, which means if you don't own Foster, there's probably no need to reach for Blue in a standard league.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Minnesota Vikings (1.2 percent): Amazingly, Matt Asiata continues to be available in 65 percent of leagues, and in the short term, he's the man you want to consider starting if you get caught with bye-week troubles. McKinnon has been out-touched by Asiata 33-8 in the past couple games. Yet while it's become almost hackneyed to say this, Asiata really isn't an NFL feature back. He's a hybrid fullback, a decent pass-catcher, and a goal-line thumper. Logic dictates that McKinnon, a rookie whom the Vikings selected in the third round this May, will get a larger slice of the pie later in the season. With Adrian Peterson's availability in question, it makes sense to stash McKinnon if you've got the roster spot.
San Diego Chargers Defense (4.2 percent): Is it really as simple as streaming the defense that's playing the Jacksonville Jaguars? For the moment, yes. The Jags' offense has allowed 14, 18 and 17 fantasy points to opposing defenses in their first three games. Maybe Blake Bortles(see below) is about to transform the franchise, but for the moment I'll assume not. Last season, the Bolts struggled getting to opposing QBs, but they're at a respectable seven after three contests, and I'll wager that number goes up in Week 4.
Other solid waiver adds, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington (29.4 percent); Matt Asiata, RB, Vikings (35.3 percent); Bobby Rainey, RB, Buccaneers (16.8 percent); Markus Wheaton, WR, Steelers (23.0 percent); Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns (15.0 percent); Josh Gordon, WR, Browns (11.3 percent); Niles Paul, TE, Washington (7.2 percent); Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs (11.4 percent); Larry Donnell, TE, Giants (3.1 percent).


Deeper-League Finds

John Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals(1.8 percent): Whenever a WR scores twice in one week, he's worth discussing, and Brown is an intriguing prospect. Bruce Arians likes to say Brown reminds him of Marvin Harrison, but that doesn't seem like an apt Indianapolis Coltscomparison. To me, Brown is T.Y. Hilton, and remember, Hilton's rookie campaign with Arians calling plays went swimmingly, to the tune of seven TDs. Brown's issue at present, of course, is that Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgeraldboth play in Arizona. As such, he hasn't had more than six targets in a game this season. For now, he's deep bench material, but if Fitz really is fading, maybe there will be some depth-chart juggling in the desert. (The Cardinals are also off in Week 4.)

Marvin Jones, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (0.7 percent): Jones will reportedly return from his broken foot in Week 5, after the Bengals' bye. If he's healthy, Jones could offer fantasy owners a nice combo: decent speed and size, and nice red zone chops. Remember, Jones scored 10 TDs last season (though four of them came in the same game), when he easily eclipsedMohamed Sanu as Cincy's best weapon opposite A.J. Green.
Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars (0.4 percent): With Blake Bortles taking over at QB for the Jags (really, see below), it's worth taking a look at the Jacksonville receiving corps. Marqise Leedidn't play Sunday and isn't expected to play in Week 4. Allen Hurns is a deep threat of whom I'm still skeptical. Mike Brown lost an early fumble last week that didn't do the Jags any favors in their blowout loss. Only Cecil Shorts stands apart in this group, and he may still be slowed by his hamstring problems. Robinson was on the field with Shorts the few occasions Jacksonville went two-wide Sunday, and caught 7 of 10 targets. He's not a burner, but Robinson is the kind of possession and red zone threat Bortles might use.

Miles Austin, WR, Cleveland Browns (4.5 percent): Speaking of hamstring troubles ... I keep waiting to hear that Austin is battling his personal bugaboo during his first month in Cleveland, but it hasn't happened yet. Instead, he's got six catches and a TD in each of his past two contests. Listen, Brian Hoyer is almost never a candidate to eclipse even 300 yards passing, plus the Browns are off in Week 4, but if you're looking for a deep-league red zone target, maybe Austin is your cup of tea.

Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Vikings (3.5 percent): I liked how Bridgewater looked in relief of Matt Cassel on Sunday. He made plays with his legs, didn't force anything, zipped a couple passes while being crunched by defenders, and basically was an actual passing threat, something Cassel hadn't managed much yet in '14. It would be silly to say Teddy is ready to be a fantasy factor in all leagues, but I like him as an addition in any two-QB league, at least as a bye-week fill-in. I think the kid has a bright future.

Blake Bortles, QB, Jaguars (1.7 percent): In fact, given my choice this May, I'd have taken Bridgewater before Bortles. The Jags felt differently, however, and in Week 3 decided they'd seen enough of Chad Henne. (Remember all that pretty talk about Bortles redshirting his rookie year? Yeah, that's why you shouldn't pay attention to anything coaches and GMs say.) Bortles is a good athlete who can run a read-option, and he showed some swashbuckling ways in the second half Sunday. However, I think there are some rough times ahead. I have questions about his decision-making and accuracy. The Jags are doing the right thing by getting his development started, but I believe in Bridgewater more.
Branden Oliver, RB, Chargers (0.0 percent): With Danny Woodhead out for the season andRyan Mathews expected to miss another month, Donald Brown has the Chargers' backfield to himself. I forget, is that a good thing? Brown was OK Sunday, but too many more days when he touches the ball 36 times and he won't last. I keep hearing people comparing Oliver -- a training camp hero this summer -- to Darren Sproles, but I think he could be a better between-the-tackles runner than that (and not nearly as awesome a pass-catcher). The Chargers still may add a veteran to their mix, but if they don't, remember Oliver's name.

Other solid waiver adds for deep-leaguers, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns (3.2 percent); Justin Forsett, RB, Ravens (8.9 percent); Benny Cunningham, RB, Rams (1.2 percent); Damien Williams, RB, Dolphins (0.3 percent); Mohamed Sanu, WR, Bengals (9.0 percent); Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars (5.8 percent); Dwayne Allen, TE, Colts (5.3 percent).
 

hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]Long-term pickups for Week 4[/h][h=3]Mettenberger, Blue among players to pick up now who can help later[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Matt Williamson[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
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Week 3 was another wild one in the NFL. Fantasy owners now have to process what we learned, adapt and figure out a way to better our respective rosters no matter what the format. But what throws a wrench into things this week is that we have six teams on a bye in Week 4, which could make your waiver-wire selections even more critical.
Let's take a look at players you should consider picking up who could provide value in redraft and dynasty leagues later on this season.

[h=3]Redraft[/h]14-team or larger leagues
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Mettenberger
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Zach Mettenberger, QB, Tennessee Titans<offer></offer>
Mettenberger is the Titans' third-string quarterback, but it might not be long before he tops the depth chart. Jake Locker had his second straight rough outing against Cincinnati, completing just half of his passes for a measly 5.4 yards per attempt, and he is currently dealing with a wrist injury. Mettenberger is a must-own in dynasty and has been since a great preseason, but now he is someone to consider in deep redraft formats, especially in leagues with a quarterback premium or ones that start two signal-callers. This huge-armed pocket passer is exactly what this offense is looking for, but hopefully with more consistency and accuracy than what Locker has shown of late.
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Seferian-Jenkins
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Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Tampa Bay BuccaneersObviously the wheels are off in Tampa Bay, and although Seferian-Jenkins is presently nursing an ankle injury and didn't play in the Bucs' blowout loss in Atlanta, they need to start thinking about the future. Tampa needs to play young guys and try to develop some long-term cohesion in its passing game, presumably with Mike Glennon at quarterback. Seferian-Jenkins is the ideal player to do that with and is dripping with fantasy potential. Monitor his injury situation, but he could pay off down the road.
Others to consider: Kenny Britt, John Brown, Roy Helu, Devin Hester, Santonio Holmes, Brian Hoyer, Jordan Matthews, Christine Michael, Branden Oliver

12-team leagues
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Beckham Jr.
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Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York GiantsWe could see Beckham make his NFL debut against Washington on Thursday night. He might take a game or two to get up to speed, as he has barely dressed since becoming a professional athlete. But it could be argued that he is already the Giants' most talented pass-catcher and Eli Manning & Co. seem to be finally getting up to speed with Ben McAdoo's offense. They did drop 30 points on a very good Houston defense this week.
Now is the time to scoop Beckham up if you have a disposable roster spot. It might take a few weeks before he is startable, but he also could pay off huge down the line. Remember, this is a base three-wide receiver offense and Jerrel Jernigan is now on injured reserve. The door is wide open for Beckham, and the Giants also have a favorable slate of opposing defenses approaching on the horizon.
Others to consider: Davante Adams, LeGarrette Blount, Blake Bortles, Jared Cook, Harry Douglas, Justin Forsett, Santonio Holmes, Jerick McKinnon, Niles Paul, Matt Prater, Allen Robinson, Bishop Sankey, Kenny Stills, Lorenzo Taliaferro

10-team leagues
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Blue
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Alfred Blue, RB, Houston TexansBlue was listed in the dynasty section last week, but with Arian Foster out of the lineup, Blue was the one who received the bulk of Houston's rushes. We know that the Texans want to run and run some more. The Texans didn't use their usual game script in their loss to the Giants on Sunday, and we would be foolish to think this team will be playing with a lead often, but Blue still received 13 carries and averaged six yards per attempt. Blue also will get the short-yardage duties while Foster is out of the lineup. At a minimum, if you own Foster in a 10-team league, pick up Blue. The Texans' lead back is going to take a ton of punishment, but also will see a lot of volume. And even if Foster returns to his starting spot this week, it's hard to imagine him playing every game the rest of the way. Blue should be able to help your team down the line.
Others to consider: Isaiah Crowell, Kirk Cousins, Andrew Hawkins, Travis Kelce, Eli Manning,Mohamed Sanu

[h=3]Dynasty[/h]
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Davis
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Austin Davis, QB, St. Louis RamsIt seems like a long shot that Davis is unquestionably the Rams' 2015 opening-day starter, but I like his chances more than Sam Bradford or Shaun Hill for such honors. Of course, Hill is battling injury, but maybe the Rams were not super excited to get him back in the lineup after Davis was surprisingly effective in Week 2. In Week 3, all Davis did was throw for 327 yards and three touchdowns while igniting a once-stagnant offense.
The Rams don't get to play the Cowboys every week and Davis is not an above-average arm talent, but why not put him at the bottom of your dynasty roster and see what he could possibly do the rest of this season and maybe beyond? St. Louis certainly has a talented young group of offensive players who could potentially emerge with the right quarterback.
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Whittaker
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Fozzy Whittaker, RB, Carolina PanthersJonathan Stewart left Sunday night's Carolina-Pittsburgh game with a knee injury, and DeAngelo Williams remains shelved with a thigh injury. Mike Tolbert is in the mix, but he too was injured late in the game last week with a hairline fracture in his leg. Cam Newton doesn't run the ball like he once did, as he is fighting injuries as well. That could leave Whittaker in line for carries, and if he impresses, maybe he sticks around Carolina while the Panthers try to detach from the huge contracts they now have with Williams and Stewart.
Others to consider: Gavin Escobar, Mike Glennon, Andre Holmes, Andre Roberts, Mark Sanchez
 

hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]32 fantasy tips to win in Week 4[/h][h=3]Hopkins becoming a fantasy star; which sleepers are set to break out?[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Mike Clay[/FONT] | Pro Football Focus
ESPN INSIDER
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Welcome back to Fantasy 32. Below I'll provide 32 notes covering each of the league's 32 teams.
Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions and come up with a win in Week 4. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version.
1. A popular breakout candidate this year, Ladarius Green somewhat lived up to the hype with four receptions for 64 yards on Sunday. Does this mean he's back in the weekly TE1 conversation? Not quite. Incredibly, Green was targeted on five of his six pass routes. That simply doesn't happen. Through three games, Green has run 24 (or 22 percent) of a possible 108 routes. Green isn't worth starting, but he's a rare tight end handcuff worth owning.
2. Selected in the first round of most fantasy drafts, Eddie Lacy has disappointed in a big way. The second-year back is averaging 3.1 yards per carry and has yet to find the end zone. Don't jump ship just yet. The Green Bay Packers have struggled to only six offensive touchdowns, but they've had their hands full with trips to Seattle and Detroit, while also facing the New York Jets at home. Lacy has handled nearly 60 percent of the team's carries, and has actually been better after contact than he was as a rookie. The lead back in one of the league's best offenses, Lacy is a logical buy-low option.
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3. They say that old habits die hard, and assuming that a team's No. 1 cornerback will automatically shadow the opposing team's No. 1 wide receiver is one of those long-standing bad habits held by many football fans. The fact is, most cornerbacks play their side of the field regardless of who the offense trots out on that side. Richard Sherman, Darrelle Revis, Patrick Peterson, Vontae Davis, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Brent Grimes are among the best cover corners in the league, and all are routinely feared by fantasy owners who are setting their lineup. To help make your life easier, here's a look at how each of these top corners has been used this season:
• Sherman lines up at left corner on roughly 97 percent of his snaps. He did not shadow Jordy Nelson, Demaryius Thomas or Keenan Allen.
• Revis primarily lines up at left corner, but will move around and/or shadow occasionally. He did not chase Mike Wallace in Week 1, but he did shadow Greg Jennings in Week 2. In Week 3, Revis was used all over the place, and primarily shadowed James Jones when Jones was on the field.
• Peterson lines up at left corner on roughly 95 percent of his snaps. He did not shadow Allen,Victor Cruz or Michael Crabtree.
• Davis lines up at right corner on roughly 95 percent of his snaps. He did not shadow Thomas,Jeremy Maclin or Cecil Shorts.
• Rodgers-Cromartie plays both outside corner positions (leaning slightly toward left corner), but rarely visits the slot. He shadowed Calvin Johnson in Week 1 and Andre Johnson in Week 3, and shadowed Larry Fitzgerald on a part-time basis in Week 2.
• Grimes lines up at left corner on 98 percent of his snaps. He did not shadow Julian Edelman,Sammy Watkins or Dwayne Bowe.


4. It has been a slow start to the 2014 season forMarques Colston, which has allowed rookieBrandin Cooks to emerge as the New Orleans Saints' top wide receiver. Cooks is second to onlyJimmy Graham in targets, which has helped him to the 16th-most fantasy points in PPR formats (43). Cooks has clearly looked the part, and it seems very likely that he'll lead Saints wide receivers in targets going forward. With Drew Brees at the controls and occasionally even looking Cooks' way in the red zone, the rookie should be viewed as a WR2 in all formats.
5. Speaking of emerging wide receivers, sophomore DeAndre Hopkins is quietly among the top 12 fantasy wide receivers through three weeks of play. That's especially impressive when you consider that he's No. 2 in line for targets in the league's run-heaviest offense. A first-round pick last April, the 22-year-old is only going to improve as the year progresses. Well on his way to an Alshon Jeffery-like breakout, Hopkins is a WR3 lock with WR1 upside.
6. The value of being in the right place at the right time cannot be overstated. Just ask Larry Donnell. Though he would be a reserve on a majority of NFL clubs, Donnell has emerged into a major offensive weapon for the tight-end-needy New York Giants. The third-year player joins Jimmy Graham and Martellus Bennett as the only tight ends in the league who have seen at least 20 percent of their team's targets each of the first three weeks. The Giants' offense is struggling, but Donnell is seeing more than enough volume to warrant TE1 consideration each and every week.
Running back-by-committee attacks are becoming more commonplace each year. With three weeks now in the books, it's as good a time as any to examine these duos, or in some cases, trios.
7. We'll start with the C.J. Spiller/Fred Jackson two-headed monster in Buffalo. Spiller has played 74 snaps, while Jackson has handled 102. Spiller is 12 ahead in carries, but nine behind in targets, thanks to 25 fewer pass routes. Barring an injury to either player, both Spiller and Jackson remain back-end RB2 options.
8. For the first time in his young career, Bishop Sankey paced Tennessee Titans running backs in snaps on Sunday. The rookie was on the field for 27 plays. Dexter McCluster worked 17 andShonn Greene handled 13. Greene and Sankey each had 10 carries, but Sankey was clearly more effective, racking up 61 yards, compared to Greene's 33. It's important to remember that this remains a committee, but Sankey is a must-own in all formats. It's only a matter of time until he emerges as Tennessee's lead back.


9. In Detroit, Joique Bell is the lead runner, but Reggie Bush is first up on passing downs. The Lions have called pass 57 percent of the time when Bell is in the game, which has helped him to a team-high 40 carries. Meanwhile, a pass has been the call 71 percent of the time when Bush is in the lineup. His 15 targets are third most on the team. Both backs are in the RB2 conversation, but they'll continue to limit each other's touches.
10. Adrian Peterson remains out in Minnesota, which leaves plodder Matt Asiata and rookie Jerick McKinnon to handle backfield duties. Asiata is clearly the lead back (81 snaps over the past two weeks), but despite not seeing many touches, McKinnon (34 snaps) is emerging into the team's passing-down back. That's an extremely significant role in Norv Turner's offense. When McKinnon has been on the field, the Vikings have called a pass 86 percent of the time. It may take a few weeks, but the rookie figures to eventually move ahead of Asiata. Stash him, especially in PPR leagues.
11. Right when it seemed Zac Stacy had taken control of the St. Louis Rams' backfield,Benjamin Cunningham jumped back in the mix. Stacy worked 33 snaps on Sunday, which was just two ahead of Cunningham. The good news for those who spent an early-round pick on Stacy is that their investment has clearly outperformed the competition. Stacy is averaging a healthy 4.3 yards per carry on 42 attempts, while Cunningham sits at 3.3 on 20 tries. Stacy has clearly been more effective and figures to widen the gap over Cunningham as the season progresses.
12. You only had to watch a few minutes of tape from the 2013 season to know that, at this point in their respective careers, Chris Ivory is a superior runner to Chris Johnson. Of course, many still expected the run-heavy Jets to lean heavily on their new toy. That hasn't panned out. Johnson has played 88 snaps, while Ivory has worked 82 and Bilal Powell 48. Johnson is averaging a miserable 3.5 yards per carry, while Ivory sits sixth in the NFL with a 5.7 YPC and is first with 3.9 yards after contact per carry. Johnson and Ivory are both RB3 material.
13. Toby Gerhart was expected to be the feature back in Jacksonville this season, but it hasn't worked out very well. Gerhart is averaging 2.4 yards per carry and has forced a mere two missed tackles. On Sunday, Denard Robinson took on a much larger role, working 20 snaps and carrying the ball on eight occasions. Gerhart had nine carries on 29 snaps. Gerhart figures to remain the lead back, but unless Blake Bortles adds a must-needed jolt to the Jacksonville offense, he's unlikely to produce RB2 numbers going forward.
14. Stevie Johnson impressed by catching all nine of his targets for 103 yards on Sunday, but don't go chasing him on waivers this week. First of all, Johnson's efficiency is impressive, but note that Colin Kaepernick completed 16 of a possible 17 throws to Michael Crabtree andAnquan Boldin. Next, Johnson was actually fourth in line for snaps among 49ers wideouts.Brandon Lloyd played 41 snaps and ran 32 routes, whereas Johnson was in on 37 plays and ran 30 routes. Finally, Vernon Davis was out of action, which freed up additional targets. Johnson simply isn't going to produce consistently as Kaepernick's fourth option.
15. Fresh off a two-score breakout game, rookie John Brown is going to be near the top of most waiver-wire articles this week. Brown isn't a bad guy to have on your bench as a WR4/5 option, but don't blow your budget on a guy who is clearly third in line for targets in an average/balanced offense. Brown has a good shot to start opposite Michael Floyd next season, but he's not there yet. With wide receiver as deep as ever, five targets per game simply won't cut it.


16. While I'm in buzz-killing mode, I know there are a few people out there seriously considering adding Joe McKnight this week. Don't be that guy. In the mix for snaps because of injuries to Jamaal Charles and De'Anthony Thomas, McKnight was targeted a team-high seven times in Week 3. He caught six for 64 yards and two scores. Note that McKnight played only 15 snaps in the game. Even if Charles and Thomas miss additional action, there's a very good chance McKnight doesn't score another touchdown this season.
17. Wes Welker made his 2014 debut on Sunday, but that didn't slow down thePeyton Manning-to-Emmanuel Sanders Express. Sanders has handled at least one quarter of Denver's targets in each of the team's first three games. He leads the league with 25 receptions, and is third with 334 receiving yards. The one area of concern here is Sanders' complete lack of usage near the goal line. Of Sanders' 25 targets, none have come within 5 yards of the end zone, and only three have come within 12 yards. Touchdowns will come as long as Sanders is being force-fed the ball, but it's a stretch to expect more than five or so going forward. Sanders is a borderline WR1 in all formats.
18. Percy Harvin is a tremendous talent, but it seems that concerns about his fantasy upside in Seattle were warranted. He's being used exclusively on underneath routes and is still operating as the team's No. 3 wide receiver behind Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse. Harvin is averaging a respectable seven touches per game, but his 3.4 average depth of target is easily lowest in the league among qualified wide receivers. This helps explain why Harvin has only 106 receiving yards and has been targeted once while within 10 yards of the end zone. Harvin should be viewed as a WR2 in PPR formats.
19. It's usually a bad idea to rely on rookie wide receivers in fantasy, but Kelvin Benjaminshould have everyone's attention. Selected in the first round of May's draft, Benjamin sits sixth in fantasy points among wideouts. He's dropped three of his 27 targets, which is a slight concern, but he's made up for it with a few acrobatic catches and a pair of touchdowns. Benjamin's 59 percent catch rate is quite impressive when you consider that his 14.6 average depth of target is sixth highest in the league among qualified wideouts. Seeing over one quarter of Cam Newton's targets, Benjamin is a back-end WR2 option going forward.
I've written at length about opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD) in the past. If you're new to the stat, be sure to check out our introduction to rushing and receiving OTD. The OTD metric weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity.
20. Jordy Nelson (3.0) and Demaryius Thomas (2.3) have one touchdown apiece this season, but it's not due to a lack of opportunity. Both sit in the receiving OTD top five. Nelson still leads the league in targets (37), and only Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall and Steve Smith Sr. (six each) have exceeded his five end zone targets. Thomas has seen four end zone looks, which is nearly half of his 2013 total (11).
21. I'll admit I was pessimistic about Jeremy Maclin coming into this season. Coming off a torn ACL and in an offense that likes to spread it around, Maclin seemed more like a WR3 than a WR1. So far in 2014, he's proven me wrong. Maclin currently sits seventh in the league in targets (31), fourth in receiving OTD (2.5), fourth in average depth of target (17.6) and third in fantasy points (48). Maclin is a WR1 in all formats.
22. One way to find undervalued players early in the season is to identify those who haven't yet scored a touchdown despite seeing plenty of opportunities to do so. Among the top 28 players in receiving OTD, only Larry Fitzgerald (1.8) and Justin Hunter (1.6) have yet to score. Fitzgerald, who scored 10 times last season, has been targeted four times within 1 yard of the end zone. Jake Locker has looked Hunter's direction five times when he was within 6 yards of the end zone. Expect both players to end up with around a half dozen scores by season's end.
23. Throughout the offseason, there was rampant speculation that rookie Andre Williams (0.2) was going to be the Giants' primary goal-line back. So much for that. Through three weeks,Rashad Jennings (4.0) easily paces the league in rushing OTD. That's the good news. The concerning news is that Jennings has scored only twice despite a league-high five carries from the opponent's 1-yard line. In fact, just five other backs have more than one carry from 1 yard out. Second in the league in carries and clearly seeing plenty of scoring opportunities, Jennings is a borderline RB1.


24. Hey, I actually have some rare Trent Richardson good news! The Indianapolis Colts' lead back has currently generated a career-high 3.8 yards per carry, which isn't too bad when you consider that most of his work is done against base defenses. Richardson has 55 yards on seven carries (7.9 YPC) against opposing nickel defenses, and figures to see more nickel with Andrew Luck performing so well. Even more promising is Richardson's usage near the goal line. Although he's yet to score, Richardson currently sits sixth in the league in rushing OTD (2.2). Only Jennings andAlfred Morris have more carries within 6 yards of pay dirt. Richardson is being outplayed by Ahmad Bradshaw, which is a concern, but he remains the lead and goal-line back in a terrific offense. Richardson is an RB2.
We can learn a lot about a team's offensive scheme by examining its pass/run ratio. By adjusting it to account for the score and time remaining in the game (or, "game flow"), we have even more useful information at our disposal.
25. The Chicago Bears operated a fairly balanced offense last year, but that hasn't been the case in 2014. The league's pass-heaviest team has called 132 pass plays (72 percent), compared to 52 runs. Jay Cutler has tossed eight touchdowns, but the team has yet to record a rushing score. The Bears played from behind against the 49ers and Bills, but their high pass rate isn't a product of game flow. An average team in Chicago's shoes would've called a pass 59 percent of the time. Matt Forte owners shouldn't entirely panic, as he's currently seeing just under 20 percent of the team's targets.
26. This is going to shock a lot of people, but, through three weeks of play, the Dallas Cowboysare the league's second run-heaviest team. In back-to-back road wins at Tennessee and St. Louis, Dallas combined to call 57 passes, compared to 71 runs. When we adjust for game flow, Dallas has called pass at a rate 8 percentage points below what a balanced team would've called. It's a major shift in philosophy from what we've seen from both Jason Garrett and Scott Linehan the past several seasons. This is great news for the fantasy stock of DeMarco Murray, but limits the upside of Terrance Williams and Jason Witten.
27. Through three weeks, many of the usual suspects rank highly in usage of three-wide receiver sets. The Packers (91 percent) pace the league. Six other teams are above 70 percent. They are the Dolphins (77 percent), Giants (76 percent), Titans (74 percent), Seahawks (73 percent), Steelers (72 percent) and Falcons (72 percent). As mentioned in past versions of Fantasy 32, this is a good place to look for wide receiver sleepers. Hunter, Odell Beckham,Davante Adams and Jarvis Landry are all early-round draft selections over the past two years who stand to benefit from their team's wideout-friendly offense. All should be owned. Seattle is a semi-surprising name considering its run-heavy philosophy, but offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell had adjusted his offense in order to keep Baldwin, Kearse and Harvin on the field. Harry Douglas is WR4 material and Lance Moore is a name to monitor in very deep leagues.
28. On the other end of the spectrum we have the teams that use their third wide receiver least often. The Rams (23 percent), 49ers (33 percent), Browns (38 percent) and Ravens (38 percent) are the only teams below 40 percent in the category. Jared Cook and Lance Kendrickshave each been on the field for more than 70 percent of the Rams' offensive snaps. The 49ers like to keep fullback Bruce Miller busy. The Browns have converted to a very run-heavy offense, which has meant plenty of Jim Dray or Gary Barnidge on the field with Jordan Cameron. The Ravens figure to use Jacoby Jones and Marlon Brown a lot more now that Dennis Pitta is out for the season. Brown is worth a flier in deep leagues.
29. Drafted as a wide receiver in the fifth round of the 2011 draft, it's taken Niles Paul quite some time to come into his own as a tight end. With Jordan Reed out of action, Paul has exploded onto the fantasy scene with 18 catches for 253 yards and a touchdown. He's responsible for 20 percent of the Redskins' targets, and has converted them into the seventh-most fantasy points among tight ends. Although Paul seems like a logical TE1 going forward, we've seen this sort of thing happen in Washington before. Fred Davis was always a decent TE1 option whenever Chris Cooley was injured. This, of course, is a new offense, but Reed is this team's No. 1 tight end. When he returns, Paul will revert to a part-time role with little fantasy upside.
30. The Bengals are on a bye this week, which should make it easier to grab Marvin Jones off waivers. Jones, who scored 10 times as a part-time player last season, emerged as Cincinnati's No. 2 wideout during the offseason. A foot injury cost him the first three weeks of the season, but he's expected back in Week 5. The Bengals' early-season dominance has allowed them to lean heavily on the run, but they still rank in the top 10 in offensive touchdowns. Once he's back to full health, Jones will be on the weekly WR3 radar.
31. Through three weeks of play, no team has run fewer offensive plays than the Raiders (163). Operating extremely inefficiently, Oakland has scored only four offensive touchdowns. As a result of trailing throughout each of their first three games, the Raiders have totaled 51 run plays. With heavily targeted Rod Streater and Week 1 starting tailback Maurice Jones-Drewboth injured, this is obviously a fantasy wasteland worth avoiding. James Jones and Darren McFadden warrant bench spots in most leagues, but neither can be started with any confidence.
32. Concerned with Vincent Jackson's slow start to the season? I'm not. Having seen 30 percent of Tampa Bay's targets, Jackson is, as usual, right up there with the league leaders in the category. His 15.5 average depth of target is sixth highest in the NFL. Jackson was No. 11 among wide receivers in fantasy points when Mike Glennon was under center last year, and Glennon will be back in control of the offense for at least the next month. Stay the course with Jackson and you'll be rewarded with WR2 production.
 

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[h=1]Sleeper targets, slow starters[/h][h=3]Berry and Caplan weigh in on McKinnon, Taliaferro, Patterson, Lacy, more[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Matthew Berry[/FONT] and [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Adam Caplan[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
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very week during the NFL season, Matthew Berry will be engaging in a discussion with an NFL expert on topics that will provide valuable insights for fantasy owners. For this pre-Week 4 edition, he and Insider Adam Caplan look at which sleeper candidates are worth making a play for and which should be avoided, as well as what to make of a few slow starters.
[h=3]Which sleeper candidates and slow-starters are worth investing in?[/h]
Matthew Berry: Adam, I want to start off this discussion by looking at a potential sleeper running back from the NFC North. What can you tell me about Minnesota Vikings rookie Jerick McKinnon? We all know that opportunity is a huge component to success in fantasy, but when I watch Matt Asiata, I see just another guy, whereas McKinnon is super raw but has all sorts of athleticism. Is there any chance we could see McKinnon take on a bigger role in the Vikings' offense?
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Adam Caplan: You nailed it, Matthew. McKinnon is a guy who fantasy owners should get in on now, as he's going to have a much bigger role going forward. You're right about him being raw, as he's a converted college quarterback from an FCS school in Georgia Southern. But I'm told he has picked up the offense extremely well. His experience as a quarterback has helped him because he knows how to read defenses and sets up his blockers really well. And as you mentioned, he's super athletic. Asiata is a solid player, good in short yardage, but he doesn't bring any explosiveness to the position; some teams actually thought of him as more of a fullback (albeit an athletic one) when he was entering the draft. McKinnon will start as more of a change-of-pace guy, and his role should get even bigger over time.
"As much as I love his skill set, right now Cordarrelle Patterson is more of a WR3 than a WR2.
"
Berry: I want to stick with the Vikings' offense for a minute and a guy who I thought in the preseason could be a breakout player: wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson. I thought that in Norv Turner's offense they would find a way to manufacture touches for him and take advantage of his outstanding speed. And while he has been good so far, he hasn't been great. What I've liked about Turner's offenses in the past has been his creativity and willingness to adapt, and I'm wondering if he can tailor things around new starting rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater, who doesn't have the strongest arm, to get him connecting with Patterson on slants and other routes that lend themselves to run-after-catch opportunities. It could be that Adrian Peterson's absence has been what has slowed Patterson, or perhaps he wasn't quite ready for prime time. As much as I love his skill set, right now he's more of a WR3 than a WR2.
Caplan: There's no question Patterson would have seen a lot more one-on-one coverage this season if Peterson was in the backfield. Here's another word of caution as it relates to Patterson's and Bridgewater's fantasy value: I talked to a veteran quarterback who has spent time in the system, and he said that Turner's timing-based offense can take a while to learn, and when there isn't an adequate running game, the offense can really struggle.
But while we're on the subject of failed breakout picks, I've got something on one of mine from the offseason: Philadelphia Eagles TE Zach Ertz. I've been a little disappointed with his usage so far, as I'd been told Philly was going to really spread it around with DeSean Jackson gone. But the truth is that the Eagles still know Ertz is a matchup nightmare for any defense, but they just haven't been able to find him that much. Nick Foles might have missed him four or five times in Week 1. I know fantasy owners demand instant impact out of their players, but I recommend being patient with Ertz. He'll put up big numbers, as opposed to a guy like WRJordan Matthews, who had two TDs last week but isn't likely to sustain that level of success.

Berry: If I could trade Ertz for, say, the Cowboys' Jason Witten, I would do it. To me, that's a good swap. Witten has always been more of a volume guy than an explosive-play, high-touchdown guy, and with Dallas going to more of a ball-control, time-of-possession approach, it's cutting down on his opportunities.

There are two potential sleepers I want to ask you about:Baltimore Ravens RB Lorenzo Taliaferro and St. Louis Rams QB Austin Davis. Bernard Pierce has shown me nothing so far, and while I think he'll start against the Panthers this week if he's healthy, I'm predicting he will struggle. That's a good defense coming off an embarrassing loss. My feeling is Taliaferro could end up getting the majority of the snaps at RB in that game, possibly leading to an expanded role going forward. As for Davis, he has looked good so far from a fantasy perspective and has developed a real connection withBrian Quick. Now that Shaun Hill is healthy, is that still Davis' starting job after their bye week?
Caplan: As for Taliaferro, I don't know that they'll be ready to go with him just yet, if Pierce is healthy.
I haven't heard definitively one way or the other on Davis, but I wouldn't be surprised if they stick with him for at least a while longer. But the guy who really excites me on that Rams offense is Quick. I know they are super excited about him there, and that the light has finally gone on for him. He was an exceptional athlete and talent coming out of Appalachian State, but that transition was really hard for him. I remember seeing him at the Senior Bowl, and the moment was just too big for him. He dropped everything. But he has really come into his own this season.
A guy who reminds me of Quick from a few years ago is New York Jets TE Jace Amaro. If he can get things straight, he's Witten with speed. They really like his blocking and his hands. He just needs to be a little more sure of himself. But I would want him in my dynasty league.
Berry: I like Amaro a lot, too. He's looked good at times.

Houston Texans RB Alfred Blue is a hot pickup target this week. I like his talent but his value is dependent on Arian Foster's health. I'm curious about what you've heard around the league and from the Texans on Blue. And let's talk about San Diego Chargers RB Donald Brown now that Ryan Mathews (out a few weeks) and Danny Woodhead (out for the season) are both on the shelf with injuries. Brown is another guy I like -- of running backs with at least 300 touches last year, he had the highest yards after contact average -- so he's more than just a guy who has value because of opportunity. But can he be a workhorse back, Adam? He had almost 40 touches last week against Buffalo. If he has a big game against Jacksonville, is he a sell-high candidate?

Caplan: I agree with you on Brown; owners need to manage their expectations with him, because his health history is an indicator that you can't rely on him in a featured role. They might need to get someone else to work in a rotation there until Mathews is back. I'll say this about Blue: He's more talented than you might expect out of a late-round pick. He was looking like one of the top RB prospects in the country prior to tearing his ACL in 2012, and it took him a year and a half to get his knee right. He's a big guy but he has some speed, too, as he showed on Sunday. He could be very productive any time Foster is out.

What do you think of the Packers' offense, Matthew? Eddie Lacy's workload is what jumps out to me the most, as he's had 12 carries per game this season versus 18.9 per game last season. Those big backs need more work to be effective since their yards come between the tackles and after they've worn defenses down.

Berry: Green Bay plays Chicago this week, a team with one of the worst run defenses in the league and is coming off a short week after beating the Jets on Monday night. The Packers are 1-2, and really need this division win. I believe coach Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers will get the offense figured out, and all the Packers who have struggled in fantasy -- Lacy, Rodgers,Jordy Nelson (except for the one week) and Randall Cobb -- should get back to being elite fantasy studs. I'm starting all of them this week -- as Rodgers said to Packers fans: "R-E-L-A-X." That said, if they can't get it done against the Bears, that's when Lacy and Rodgers owners should start freaking out a little bit.
 

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[h=1]Fantasy advice on every team[/h][h=3]Our NFL reporters offer Week 4 fantasy intel from inside each locker room[/h]
By NFL Nation Reporters | ESPN Insider

ESPN Insider has planted spies in every NFL locker room -- OK, so they're our 32 NFL Nation team reporters -- in order to provide fantasy owners with inside intel to help you win your league. We call it Insider Trading, a collection of fantasy lineup advice pulled straight from the locker rooms and practice fields of every team.
Our Week 4 edition will help owners set their lineups in all formats by bringing you key Insider info, including expectations for running backs like Eddie Lacy, DeAngelo Williams, Reggie Bushand Joique Bell, plus sleeper tight ends like Ladarius Green and Tim Wright.
Check back every week for info that will help you set your lineups. In the meantime, here is our NFL Nation reporters' fantasy advice, covering every team not on a bye.

[h=3]NFC West[/h]
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San Francisco 49ers: 49ers should ride Gore this week
Frank Gore was a nonfactor in San Francisco's 23-14 loss at the Arizona Cardinals last week, carrying the ball just six times for 10 yards, and only once in the second half. The Niners have seen the errors of their ways, though, and even normally tight-lipped coach Jim Harbaugh has suggested Gore will go back to being his bell cow running back this week. After all, the Niners have to grind out the clock to keep Philadelphia's high-octane offense off the field. Gore should rebound from last week, so keep him in your starting lineups.-- Paul Gutierrez


[h=3]NFC East[/h]
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Dallas Cowboys: Cowboys need Dez to come through
When the Cowboys played against the New Orleans Saints last season, <offer>Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan made it a priority to take Dez Bryant out of the game. At one point, he had two defenders lined up on Bryant, almost like trying to stop a gunner on the punt team; Bryant caught one pass for 44 yards. In a 2012 meeting, Bryant caught nine passes for 224 yards and two touchdowns. Bryant has three of the Cowboys' six pass plays of more than 20 yards this season and the Saints have the 29th-ranked pass defense. In order to keep up with Drew Brees, the Cowboys will need Bryant to have numbers more like the 2012 meeting than the 2013 one. Of course you'll have Bryant in your lineup regardless, but hopefully he'll come through for both you and Dallas. -- Todd Archer</offer>

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Philadelphia Eagles: Upside and inconsistency for Ertz, Sproles and Matthews
The Philly offense can be prolific, which means that each of its skill players has the chance to come up big in any given week. However, with so many weapons in the Eagles' system, there's no getting around the lack of consistency those players have. Chip Kelly likes to move the ball around, so it's hard to predict exactly what you'll get fromZach Ertz, Darren Sproles or Jordan Matthews in a given week. The payoff can be high, but they may not be the most consistent plays on your roster. -- Phil Sheridan


[h=3]NFC North[/h]
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Green Bay Packers: Lacy should get off the schneid
Just because coach Mike McCarthy called out running back Eddie Lacy this week, that doesn't mean he will go away from him. In fact, it might be just the opposite. The Packers' coaches have said they must get back to establishing a running game, and this might be the week to do so. After playing three teams -- Seattle, the New York Jets and Detroit -- that had top-10 run defenses last season, they get the Bears' shaky run defense this week. Through three games, the Bears' defense ranks 26th against the run, allowing nearly 145 yards per game. Look for Lacy to get off the schneid this week. -- Rob Demovsky

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Chicago Bears: Bennett's a legit fantasy threat
Martellus Bennett isn't putting up huge numbers in terms of yardage, but he's caught 20 passes over the past three games, including four touchdowns. Going back to training camp, Bennett has spent extra time working with Jay Cutler to learn the quarterback's preferences, what he's seeing in certain situations and how they can attack defenses. Bennett will be Cutler's top red zone target, and the tight end delivers most of the time, considering the Bears have scored eight touchdowns in 10 trips in the red zone. Bennett's hot start isn't a fluke. -- Michael C. Wright

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Detroit Lions: Sit Bush and Bell this week
Detroit running backs might be a risky play Sunday against the Jets, the league's top-rated defense. Even offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi admitted this is a tougher defense for teams to run against than most in the NFL and said, "You don't want to abandon the run too early, but you don't want to beat your head against a brick wall, either." Considering the Lions are averaging 3.03 yards a rush this season, there might be better options in fantasy than Joique Bell or Reggie Bush this week. -- Michael Rothstein

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Minnesota Vikings: Asiata gets a bump in PPR leagues
Adrian Peterson's replacement, Matt Asiata, scored on a 25-yard swing pass against New England and had a 41-yard reception against New Orleans last week. With the Vikings' offensive line struggling with pass protection, Asiata could be a serviceable outlet as a receiver. Only three Vikings players have more targets than Asiata's 14. For fantasy owners, his receptions could continue to mitigate his struggles to produce as a running back, especially in PPR leagues. -- Ben Goessling


[h=3]NFC South[/h]
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Carolina Panthers: Can D-Will overcome poor O-line blocking?
Running back DeAngelo Williams looks like he has his burst back in practice after missing the past two games with a hamstring injury, but it's debatable how much a fantasy impact he can make in Week 4. The issue is blocking. The Panthers are averaging only 3.2 yards per carry, their second-lowest rate in franchise history in the first three games. But offensive coordinator Mike Shula is recommitting himself to the run after calling a franchise-low 10 run plays against Pittsburgh, so Williams could see enough volume to make a statistical mark. -- David Newton

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New Orleans Saints: Robinson still is a goal-line threat
Khiry Robinson owners shouldn't be too concerned that Pierre Thomas got the call on New Orleans' 1-yard touchdown run last week. The Saints went with a hurry-up snap on that play with their nickel offense still on the field (right after Thomas had caught a 13-yard pass on third down). Robinson is more likely to be used in those situations whileMark Ingram is out with a hand injury -- though it remains to be seen how the Saints will divvy up those snaps when Ingram returns. In the first two weeks, Robinson got two goal-line carries and Ingram one. -- Mike Triplett

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Atlanta Falcons: Hester should continue to produce
Devin Hester never developed into a viable fantasy wide receiver during his time with the Bears, but that's changing with the Falcons. He scored two touchdowns last week, one on a 20-yard reverse and the other on his record-setting 62-yard punt return. Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter said Hester has earned more touches on offense, so expect to see Hester get even more looks, with the Vikings likely to focus their attention on shutting down Julio Jones. Hester had two catch-and-run touchdowns during the preseason, so look for quarterback Matt Ryan to find Hester in one-on-one matchups. It looks like Hester finally is settling in as a legitimate fantasy weapon. -- Vaughn McClure

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rainey is off the radar
It remains to be seen if running back Doug Martin will return after a two-game absence because of a knee injury. But, either way, you'd be wise to stay away from his backup, Bobby Rainey. In last week's loss to Atlanta, Rainey lost two fumbles, which didn't score him any points with the coaching staff. If Martin returns, he'll get the bulk of the carries. If Martin doesn't play, the coaches may be hesitant to give Rainey the ball very much. They might go more with Mike James, who hasn't had any problems with fumbles. It's looking like Rainey's run as a sneaky fantasy play has passed.-- Pat Yasinskas


[h=3]AFC West[/h]
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Kansas City Chiefs: Little upside for Chiefs WRs
I've been told the Chiefs like their three-tight end formations, and judging from the results it's easy to see why. However, that means diminished playing time for the wide receivers. Dwayne Bowe was on the sideline for 17 of the 72 snaps, and Donnie Avery was out of the lineup for 31 plays last week against Miami. You'll have to be in a very deep league to consider leaning on any of Kansas City's wide receivers. -- Adam Teicher

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Oakland Raiders: Carr isn't yet a fantasy option
Oakland rookie quarterback Derek Carr clearly doesn't have an open playbook to work with, and it is making him an unattractive fantasy play. Coaches want Carr to slowly get comfortable in the system. The combination of Carr's inexperience and a lack of explosive weapons in Oakland's passing game will likely mean the Raiders will continue to rely on more high-percentage passes. That will make it difficult for Carr to pile up quality fantasy numbers. -- Bill Williamson

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San Diego Chargers: Green is a sneaky play
Expect emerging tight end Ladarius Green's targets to increase against the Jaguars. After veteran Antonio Gates beat the Seahawks for three touchdowns, he saw more coverage rolled his way the following week against Buffalo, finishing with one catch for eight yards. Green benefited, totaling four receptions for 64 yards on six targets in a win over the Bills. According to ESPN Stats & Information, tight ends have combined to catch 25 passes for 293 yards and four touchdowns against the Jaguars, and opposing quarterbacks have completed 78.1 percent of their passes to tight ends in three games. Those numbers bode well for Green, which makes him a sneaky salary-cap or bye-week play this week. -- Eric Williams


[h=3]AFC East[/h]
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Buffalo Bills: Don't fret over injuries to Manuel, Spiller
The Bills had a pair of offensive starters -- quarterback EJ Manuel (abdominal) and running back C.J. Spiller (chest) -- added to their injury report, but don't expect either ailment to have an impact on their performances Sunday. Coach Doug Marrone said both players came to trainers with minor soreness, and because they are high-profile players, they had to list both on the injury report. Both will play against the Texans, so don't let their maladies impact whether you decide to insert them into your lineups. -- Mike Rodak

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Miami Dolphins: Don't sleep on Miller
An under-the-radar play this week could be Dolphins starting tailback Lamar Miller. He's quietly thriving in Bill Lazor's new system, especially after the elbow injury toKnowshon Moreno. Miller is coming off a 108-yard performance in Week 3 and told me he feels stronger and in rhythm with more carries. He's averaging a career-high 5.8 yards per carry and has a tempting matchup against a weak Raiders D. -- James Walker

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New England Patriots: Look for Gronk, Wright to step it up
Tight end Rob Gronkowski said this week that he's ready to get rolling on more of a full-time basis after being limited through the first three weeks (47.8 percent of the snaps, including penalties but not kneel-downs), which should have a trickle-down effect on the rest of the offense. The expectation among some players is that Gronkowski's increased playing time will in turn limit tight end Michael Hoomanawanui's playing time and give tight end Tim Wright (five snaps) a chance to make more of an impact as a pass-catcher. Consider adding Wright to your roster now for a payoff down the road. -- Mike Reiss

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New York Jets: TE Cumberland has sleeper potential
With Chris Johnson off to a slow start, the coaches are open to giving Chris Ivorymore touches. Previously, he had been splitting the carries with Johnson. Also, in an attempt to improve their red zone efficiency, the Jets will try to feature tight end Jeff Cumberland. The Lions' safeties are suspect, so Cumberland could be a sleeper pick this week. Consider adding him if you're dealing with injuries or bye weeks. -- Rich Cimini


[h=3]AFC North[/h]
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Baltimore Ravens: Who will fill Pitta's role for Ravens?
Fullback Kyle Juszczyk is the best long-term choice for the player who is going to benefit the most from the loss of tight end Dennis Pitta. As one team official pointed out, Juszczyk is more durable than Owen Daniels and causes more matchup problems for the defense. Juszczyk is a favorite of offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, so expect increased touches for the second-year player out of Harvard. He's a player fantasy owners in deep leagues should consider adding. -- Jamison Hensley

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Pittsburgh Steelers: Big Ben primed for a big game
Although Ben Roethlisberger has piled up yardage early this season, he has been inconsistent and has just 3 TDs (2 INTs). However, he could be a strong fantasy play this week. Roethlisberger has 778 yards passing, second only to Andrew Luck (912) of quarterbacks playing this week, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are giving up 264 passing yards per game. Roethlisberger, who has a 16-2 career record against NFC teams at Heinz Field, could hit some big plays Sunday after drawing in the Buccaneers' defense with play-action fakes to AFC leading rusher Le'Veon Bell. -- Scott Brown


[h=3]AFC South[/h]
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Houston Texans: Hopkins is just getting started
The Texans are still targeting receiver Andre Johnson more than DeAndre Hopkins, but the second-year player is catching up and is a budding star. Hopkins has 227 receiving yards and two touchdowns to Johnson's 191 yards and no touchdowns. Coach Bill O'Brien said this week that he wants to do a better job of getting Hopkins the ball, and Johnson said, "If he keeps doing what he's doing, he's going to be great." Hopkins' fantasy arrow is pointing straight up. -- Tania Ganguli

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Indianapolis Colts: Titans have been Luck's kryptonite
Quarterback Andrew Luck may be coming off AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors after throwing for 370 yards and four touchdowns against Jacksonville, but playing him this weekend against the Titans would be a bad move. Luck has thrown four interceptions, only two touchdowns, has been sacked 12 times and he's yet to surpass 300 yards in a game against the Titans in four career meetings. The Titans are second in the league against the pass this season. -- Mike Wells

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Jacksonville Jaguars: Look for Shoelace's role to continue growing
The Jaguars signed Toby Gerhart to be the team's workhorse back, but Denard Robinson is going to be eating into his touches a bit more. Both head coach Gus Bradley and offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch said Robinson's role will increase going forward after he had eight carries for a team-high 33 yards against the Colts. One player told me that Robinson will benefit from Blake Bortles' insertion into the lineup because teams will no longer crowd the line of scrimmage. That should open up more space for Robinson to work. He's a quality speculative add in deeper leagues. -- Mike DiRocco

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Tennessee Titans: A rough fantasy week for Titans?
Quarterback Jake Locker missed practice Wednesday due to a bad right wrist. If he plays, it's hard to have a feel for what he'll be able to deliver having been limited during the week. Backup Charlie Whitehurst was better in training camp than many expected. The Titans have faith in him. But it's hard even for coaches and teammates to know whom he'll prefer as a target, especially if tight end Delanie Walker (shoulder) is out. It could be a messy game all around for Tennessee's skill players. -- Paul Kuharsky
 

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[h=1]Free-agent finds for Week 5[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Christopher Harris[/FONT] | ESPN.com

Waiver-wire news changes fast and furious throughout the week as injuries and depth-chart shenanigans overtake us. So be sure to follow me on Twitter by clicking on the link next to my headshot at the bottom of the column, and I'll keep you updated as news warrants. Let's get to the best fantasy roster additions heading into Week 5:
Standard ESPN league finds
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Minnesota Vikings (owned in 0.8 percent of ESPN leagues): How do you know it's a thin week for the waiver wire? I'm leading with a player who was already on this exact list last week. But McKinnon deserves another mention, as he produced 152 yards on 19 touches in Week 4. More important than the numbers was McKinnon's game tape, which showed the hard-cutting, quick-accelerating skills we were promised by those who fell in love with his combine results. Vikings coach Mike Zimmer was careful to proclaim that he still views McKinnon as a change-of-pace back behind Matt Asiata, but I can't imagine that will remain the case all season. Asiata did score three times Sunday and had nice barreling runs, but McKinnon was on a different level. I'm not sure you're going to be able to start him immediately in all leagues, but he definitely should be added in all leagues.

Larry Donnell, TE, New York Giants(26.8 percent): Donnell is also a repeat on this list and should certainly now be owned in all leagues. He's got 25 catches for 256 yards and four TDs (although three of those scores came last week). The best thing you can say about Donnell is he catches most everything thrown near him, and he's really big. Nobody will mistake his athleticism for a basketball player's, but he's a reliable chain-mover in an offense that's woken up. It won't be shocking if he falls off, but at the moment, he's a no-brainer top-10 TE on any list.

Eli Manning, QB, Giants (42.7 percent): Eli deserves praise for this turnaround. He was as jumpy as could be in Week 1, but since then he's run the quick-strike Giants offense with great precision and tempo. Most importantly, the squad seems to have figured out its offensive line. Ben McAdoo's system may not produce huge yardage totals, but over the past two-plus games it's kept Eli out of trouble. Yes, the random five-interception game will still probably strike somewhere down the road, but Manning has averaged 5.0 yards at the catch this year (30th among starting QBs), after finishing at 7.2 last season (which was fourth). This philosophical change is real, and in Week 5 against a poor Atlanta Falconsdefense, Eli is a potential plug-and-play streamer.
Eddie Royal, WR, San Diego Chargers (28.2 percent): Raise your hand if you've seen this movie before. Royal scored five combined TDs in Weeks 1 and 2 of 2013, and folks rushed to add him. Alas, he scored just thrice more all season and never exceeded four grabs in a game. So now we're left to ponder Royal's production over these past two contests: nine catches, 147 yards and four TDs. Listen, you can feel free to chase. He has exactly one catch this season out of a two-WR set (in fact, he has more carries out of such sets: two), but I can't deny that he's been wide open running out of the slot when the Chargers have gone spread. The rationalist in me says a correction is coming soon, but if you're done being rational and just want to chase points, Royal is a fine guy to chase.
Philadelphia Eagles Defense (8.2 percent): If you picked up the Chargers D/ST last week, as I recommended, ride them again against Geno Smith and the New York Jets. But if you didn't, it may be too late to grab them. So try the Eagles. Their defensive front -- particularly Trent Cole, Fletcher Cox and Cedric Thornton -- is stout, and Mychal Kendricks may return from his calf strain. I don't love the secondary, and Austin Davis has put up some numbers, but in general, I consider the St. Louis Rams a pretty good matchup for an opposing fantasy D. Getting touchdowns on a blocked punt, an interception return and a punt return (as happened last week) isn't likely to recur for the Eagles, but it's good to know they have big-play ability.
Other solid waiver adds, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns (5.7 percent); Justin Forsett, RB, Ravens (9.2 percent); Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, Ravens (14.8 percent); Alfred Blue, RB, Texans (4.0 percent); Markus Wheaton, WR, Steelers (19.5 percent); Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns (12.9 percent); Brian Quick, WR, Rams (14.8 percent);Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles (14.8 percent); Josh Gordon, WR, Browns (10.3 percent); Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs (37.1 percent); Niles Paul, TE Washington (16.7 percent); Owen Daniels, TE, Ravens (8.9 percent).

Deeper-league finds

Darrin Reaves, RB, Carolina Panthers(0.1 percent): DeAngelo Williamssuffered a sprained ankle in Week 4 and has already been labeled doubtful for Sunday. Mike Tolbert is out andJonathan Stewart looks questionable at best. That may leave Reaves as the Panthers' starter. In relief of D-Willy last week, Reaves had 37 yards on 15 touches. He's a thick, short player whose skill set didn't look ready for "between-the-tackles" action Sunday, but that doesn't mean he can't improve and/or generate fantasy points through volume. There's no guarantee he's the starter for Week 5 against the Chicago Bears; Carolina will also get Fozzy Whittaker(0.1 percent) back and signed Chris Ogbonnaya (0.1 percent) off the street. But if you're out of other options or hurt by Lamar Miller's bye week, you could take a flier on Reaves.

Jarius Wright, WR, Vikings (0.2 percent): Like Eddie Royal, Wright barely plays in two-WR sets and only runs out of the slot, and his weapon of choice in Sunday's contest -- during which he caught eight passes for 132 yards -- was the WR screen. We can speculate that Wright andTeddy Bridgewater have some kind of impossibly strong, "We used to be backups together" bond, I suppose, but I think it's likelier that the Vikings looked at the Falcons' strong cornerback corps and decided not to have their rookie QB mess with much downfield. Wright is a player who's likeliest to have value in a deeper PPR league.
Denard Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (0.6 percent): Robinson was on the field far more frequently than Toby Gerhart Sunday and showed significantly more burst than the erstwhile starter. Of course, he's also not a particularly physical runner, so when it came time to bang in a short TD, Gerhart got the call. For the moment, Robinson seems to have worked his way into a backfield committee, one that has a painfully low ceiling. But more touches should be forthcoming. The Jags face a banged-up Pittsburgh Steelers defense next week.
Louis Murphy, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0.0 percent): Mike Evans started to look like a force against the Steelers on Sunday, catching one TD and coming within a whisker of snatching another, but then he suffered a groin injury that will reportedly cost him multiple games. Murphy, whom the Bucs released earlier in the season but re-signed before Week 4, picked up Evans' slack with six grabs for 99 yards, including a tough over-the-middle catch that set up Tampa's winning score. You'd have to be desperate to expect a repeat, but the Bucs do face the poor New Orleans Saints secondary Sunday.
Travaris Cadet, RB, Saints (0.2 percent): Cadet surprisingly got passing-down work for the Saints ahead of Pierre Thomas Sunday night, and responded with six catches for 59 yards. (He also lost a fumble.) Leave it to Sean Payton to give us a third RB, just when we were pretty sure he had only two healthy ones. Cadet's prospects will become much darker once Mark Ingram returns, but for the moment, you can think about using him in a deep PPR.
Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers (4.2 percent): Floyd has scored in back-to-back games, eating up man coverage in deep-ball situations. At his size (6-foot-5, 225 pounds), Floyd gives you big-play ability every week, but is also likely to see only a handful of targets per game. The oldPhilip Rivers loved to fling it way downfield again and again, but latter-day Phil is more conservative. Floyd is pure fantasy boom-or-bust material.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Buccaneers (0.5 percent): It was heartening to see ASJ return after missing two games with a foot injury, and even more heartening to see that he was an every-down player against the Steelers. To my eyes, Seferian-Jenkins held his own in all blocking situations, and while he caught only three passes, he did have seven targets. If Mike Evans is out because of his groin injury, Seferian-Jenkins could see even more action. He's a nice flier Week 5 against the Saints.
Jace Amaro, TE, New York Jets (1.3 percent): The Jets rookie has nine targets over the past two weeks, and found an opening that produced a nice after-the-catch run in Week 4. The Jets still don't trust him in a blocking role -- Jeff Cumberland played more than twice as many snaps Sunday -- but Amaro is making strides. He's got enough size and athleticism to track in a deep or dynasty league.

Other solid waiver adds for deep-leaguers, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Vikings (10.0 percent); Blake Bortles, QB, Jaguars (4.6 percent); Branden Oliver, RB, Chargers (0.6 percent); Bobby Rainey, RB, Buccaneers (15.4 percent); Marvin Jones, WR, Bengals (0.9 percent); John Brown, WR, Cardinals (3.9 percent); Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars (1.9 percent); Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars (7.3 percent); Mohamed Sanu, WR, Bengals (6.5 percent); Miles Austin, WR, Browns (4.0 percent); Dwayne Allen, TE, Colts (11.0 percent).
 

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[h=1]Backfield breakdown entering Week 5
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[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Eric Karabell[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

[FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Tennessee Titans[/FONT] running back [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Bishop Sankey[/FONT] was the first at his position to be chosen in the NFL draft this summer and the first selected by fantasy owners in ESPN average live drafts, but he isn't owned in 100 percent of leagues and he isn't seeing anything close to a full assortment of touches. The Titans haven't implied anything other than general dissatisfaction overall during their three-game losing streak, but after the one-sided loss to the [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Indianapolis Colts[/FONT] on Sunday in which starting running back [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Shonn Greene[/FONT] was basically ignored, one would think Sankey's time is finally here.This scenario is pretty much what I expected when Sankey appeared relatively buried in the preseason, when he wasn't seeing snaps with the first team. I advised Sankey fantasy owners to be patient, and most did just that and kept him on the bench. Nobody's saying this is a future top-10 running back, but there is upside. The University of Washington product appears to need more polish when it comes to pass protection, holding onto the football, and pace of the game at this level, but he made plays the past two weeks in brief, ever so brief, action. I'd argue that the Titans, especially in lieu of issues at quarterback, where any of three options could legitimately be the starter the second half of the season, need to try harder to establish the run, whether it's Greene, Sankey or some combination.
Greene remains in the "starter" role in the updated fantasy running back depth chart, but don't be surprised if it's the last week. He rushed the ball three times in Sunday's loss. Yes, the Titans rarely had the football, but still, his workload is depressed. After seeing 15 rushing attempts in Week 1, a surprising and clearly fluky romp over the Kansas City Chiefs in retrospect, he has 18 chances since. He's big, perhaps the goal-line option, but Sankey ran with purpose on his third-quarter drive Sunday and scored a touchdown, and it's clear he's an option as a receiver out of the backfield, too. The Cleveland Browns are this week's opponent, and only the Atlanta Falcons have permitted more fantasy points per game to running backs, so if we receive word during the week that Sankey will see more action, he becomes a flex possibility.
Other running back thoughts: Speaking of those inconsistent Falcons, Steven Jackson has actually been very consistent. In his four games, he's rushed 12, 11, 14 and 13 times for 52, 46, 54 and 49 yards. It isn't very good, but at least we know what we're getting, or rather not getting. Jackson isn't a great play, but does anyone wonder what Antone Smith could do with a 15-touch game? He has 10 carries for 119 yards and two of the team's five rushing scores, each in the past two games. He's not listed on the running back chart because Jacquizz Rodgers is the Jackson handcuff, still, and rookie Devonta Freeman the stealth future guy. Anyway, I doubt Smith gets that chance for big carries, so there's no fantasy value yet, but perhaps he's a late bloomer. … The Carolina Panthers are getting desperate, with DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and fullback Mike Tolbert each injured and unlikely to suit up this week. Rookie Darrin Reaves moves to the top of the chart for his team, though his 12 carries for 26 yards against Baltimore didn't excite. Things should be easier against the Chicago Bearsthis weekend, but this isn't a safe flex play. … Toby Gerhart of the Jacksonville Jaguarscontinues to look like a free-agent bust and the team gave more snaps to Denard Robinson in Week 4's loss in San Diego. Robinson could soon supplant Gerhart for starter snaps, and I'm not presuming he'll fail the same way. Gerhart runs upright and doesn't look quick at all, and I can't make much case to own him in 10-team formats any longer. … What a disaster for theNew England Patriots on Monday night, and there are no changes to the running back hierarchy yet, but James White looked decent in trash time. No word on whether coach Bill Belichick gives him a legit chance this week against the Cincinnati Bengals, but let's just say Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen aren't doing much. I've added the rookie from Wisconsin just in case. It wouldn't be the first time Belichick surprised Patriots fans and fantasy owners.
 

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[h=1]Replacements for Brady, other QBs[/h][h=3]Berry and Jaws weigh in on fantasy fixes for struggling QBs, LeSean McCoy[/h]
By Matthew Berry and Ron Jaworski | ESPN Insider
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Every week during the NFL season, Matthew Berry will be engaging in a discussion with an NFL expert on topics that will provide valuable insights for fantasy owners. For this pre-Week 5 edition, he and ESPN Insider Ron Jaworski look at top fantasy replacements for Tom Brady, as well as what to make of the Bills' offense and LeSean McCoy's slow start.
[h=3]Who are the best fantasy replacements for Tom Brady and other struggling QBs?[/h]
Matthew Berry: Jaws, after the Patriots' embarrassing loss to the Chiefs on "Monday Night Football," Tom Brady ranks 27th among quarterbacks in fantasy points -- he has scored five fewer points than Raiders rookie Derek Carr. He has the same number of fantasy points asAustin Davis ... and Davis has played one less game! I don't want to say that Brady has "lost it," but he isn't a viable fantasy starting quarterback right now. The offensive line is a mess,Rob Gronkowski still doesn't look healthy, and, while Julian Edelman is a good player, he's not exactly going to carry this offense.
Ron Jaworski: That's it! Edelman is a solid receiver, but neither he nor any of these receivers are getting any separation. None. I'm still kind of surprised they did nothing this offseason to improve the receiving corps. If I'm Brady, I'm knocking on Bill Belichick's door: "Hey, Bill, I took the pay cut, now can you give me some receivers?"
<offer></offer>
Brady is not going to have a good fantasy year. The Patriots' offense is awful. In studying tape of their first three games, there were several times when they were running plays with six offensive linemen. What that says to me is that Belichick is getting frustrated by the lack of production and just trying to establish some attitude running the ball and resting the defense. But they're not protecting Brady; he's getting hit a lot.
The Patriots' defense should be good enough to keep them in games, even though it didn't look like it against the Chiefs. They could win a lot of games 24-21, 20-17. Those are the kind of games they'll be in. They won't blow people out, and I don't think Brady is going to be very productive. They've got too many issues. They're averaging 4.6 yards per play -- that's worst in the league.
Berry: This is not a case of a slow start and "he'll turn it around." If I own Brady, I'm actively looking for a replacement. I don't even think he's own-able in a standard 10-team league. As bye weeks approach, or for people in two-QB leagues, deeper leagues, dynasty leagues or even if you just want a Brady replacement, three guys made their 2014 debut on Sunday: the Vikings' Teddy Bridgewater, the Jaguars' Blake Bortles and the Buccaneers' Mike Glennon. Maybe I'm crazy, but I thought all three looked pretty good on Sunday.


Jaworski: Glennon impressed me the most of those three, which you'd expect because he's a second-year guy, and he has a little more polish. But it's clear that he knows where to go with the football, he has a good arm and there are weapons around him. Mike Evans is out for a few weeks, but I like the size he brings to the table, along with Vincent Jackson and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins. And if they hold up along the offensive line, which I think they can, they'll be able to run the football. That could be a good offense with Glennon at the helm.
Berry: That's really interesting to me, because Glennon is a guy who is available in a ton of leagues. I agree with you about his weapons, especially when Evans gets back, and I really like what I've seen out of Seferian-Jenkins. He could start to be a factor at tight end in fantasy.
Based on what you're saying here, I'd be looking at Glennon to replace Brady or another struggling QB. But I feel as though a lot of people who watched Sunday's games would be sitting there and thinking that Bridgewater is the guy they'd want to get.
Jaworski: Bridgewater is a good athlete, he's very accurate and has so many attributes that you love to see in a young quarterback, but he's going to get beat up. We've already seen that with the ankle injury against the Falcons, and it could keep him out of the Packers game on Thursday. He has thin legs, a thin frame and he's fragile enough that he's going to have a tough time handling all the hits he's going to take.
Now with Bortles, he is much bigger and stronger than Bridgewater, with the prototypical size and frame you like to see in an NFL quarterback. But he's going to get beat up, too, just based on the number of hits he's going to take. The Jaguars' O-line has issues, giving up five sacks per game, worst in the NFL. When Luke Joeckel is your best offensive lineman, you're in trouble.
Berry: We agree on Glennon, and I think I like Bridgewater a little more than you. I understand the injury concerns -- and they are legitimate -- but when healthy, he has skilled players around him and a fantasy-friendly offensive coordinator in Norv Turner.
Now Jaws, you know I'm a homer, and I'm a big personal fan of Washington. So I have to ask you about Kirk Cousins. He's had 1½ really good games, and one horrific game. I realize that when you're evaluating him you're looking at whether he can be Washington's franchise guy, but I know a lot of fantasy owners want to know whether he can be an effective fantasy quarterback for them.
My take is that he's a good buy-low candidate right now, coming off of his bad game versus the Giants. All the reasons we liked him before that game are still there: His fit within coach Jay Gruden's offense, the weapons around him in DeSean Jackson, Niles Paul (and Jordan Reedwhen he gets healthy), Pierre Garcon, Alfred Morris and Andre Roberts. And frankly, that defense is terrible. They won't be winning a lot of 21-17 games, and that means he's going to have to throw and likely rack up big yardage totals in the process.
Jaworski: I agree with you. I think Cousins' performance in the Eagles game is more indicative of his skill set than his performance in the Giants game was. His field vision was awful against New York for some reason, but that can happen to quarterbacks when they're trying to make plays when their teams get behind. In general, I think he does a really good job of reading defenses and is a good anticipator. So I won't abandon him after one game.
From a football perspective, can you win with Cousins as your quarterback? Yes. And I'd imagine that could translate to good fantasy performances as well.
Berry: The quarterback who took advantage of that terrible Redskins defense last week was Eli Manning. He looked absolutely brutal in the preseason and in the first couple of games in the regular season, but against Washington he looked like his big brother. I'm very encouraged if I own Victor Cruz and Larry Donnell, and even Rueben Randle and Odell Beckham Jr. in deeper PPR leagues. I think Manning can be a spot starter during bye weeks or bad matchups for your starting QB.
Jaworski: Manning actually played pretty well against Houston, which as we know is a good defense. And you're right, he was terrific against Washington. What I see in Eli is that the skill set is still there for him, as he still has the ability to throw the football downfield and process the information he needs to go to the right place with the football.
I really like where this offense is going on the whole. Rashad Jennings is going to have a helluva year, and once they get Beckham out there, look out: He's their explosive play guy. There are a lot of weapons around Eli, and the offensive line is getting better, which is what you want to see.


One more offense that I think could improve: the Buffalo Bills'. I thought that before the quarterback change from EJ Manuel to Kyle Orton. I think they want to spread it out and be explosive, because they already knew they could run it. That's why they got Sammy Watkins, because you need to have explosive designed plays; it's hard to consistently produce 12-play, 80-yard drives in this league. Watkins can get open and he has that big catch radius.
Berry: Buffalo is definitely interesting. We all love Watkins' talent, but the question has been whether Manuel can get him the ball, and Manuel wasn't being consistently accurate through the first four games. We'll see if Orton can be, but Watkins seems like a buy-low guy right now, because we know he has that big-play ability if Orton can get him the ball.
I've gotta tap into your expertise on the Eagles, Jaws. You played in Philadelphia, you know that town -- I'm pretty sure you haven't paid for a meal there in 20 years -- and you know the Eagles. Fantasy owners are freaking out about LeSean McCoy. He's the 26th-ranked running back in fantasy points, and has had two games of two points or less in his first four. For a top-three pick, that's unheard of. We know the Eagles want to run the ball, but those results are very concerning.
Jaworski: Right now, I wouldn't touch McCoy from a fantasy standpoint. I realize you're likely going to keep him if you drafted him, but their offensive line is like a sieve. Penetration is the kryptonite for any running game, and they are missing much of their athletic O-line due to injuries right now. They also brought in Darren Sproles in part to spell McCoy, because he was taking a beating last season, so that means fewer carries for him.
Berry: I hear you, and I'm not going to go make an offer for him if I don't have him, but if you owned him, would you sell? I think the case for sticking with McCoy is that he's a young, talented guy on an offense that will score a lot of points, and he'll be getting the majority of the carries. I feel like he has to get better; they're getting Lane Johnson back from suspension, and they have the bye in Week 7 to get some things figured out. Is he a top-three pick? No, but I feel he's still a top-10 running back by season's end. Coach Chip Kelly might be able to find creative ways to get him in space.
Jaworski: If that's the case, then why didn't he do that against the 49ers on Sunday? Don't get me wrong, I love Chip, but he can't block for McCoy. I'm very concerned about that offensive line for McCoy because of the penetration it's allowing in the running game and in the screen game, but also for QB Nick Foles. I don't know how many more hits he can take.
Berry: That's a great point, and as long as we are talking QBs for deeper leagues, you know who is an interesting stash? Mark Sanchez. I agree that Foles is going to continue to take hits, and Sanchez looked very good in the preseason.
Jaworski: You're right. He was sensational during the preseason.
Berry: In that offense, with those players around him, Sanchez could easily be a top-12 fantasy quarterback if he were to get the job.
Thanks for your time, Jaws.
 

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[h=1]Key stat trends entering Week 5[/h][h=3]Cashing in on red zone opportunities could change Fitzgerald's val[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Ken Daube[/FONT] | Special to ESPN.com

Of the 39 NFL players who have been targeted at least four times in the red zone this season, 30 of them have at least one touchdown. And 18 of them (46 percent) have scored multiple times during these opportunities. In general, red zone targets are a great way to judge if your player's value is being artificially inflated or deflated based on his actual production in this area of the field.
For instance, Larry Fitzgerald has been targeted six times so far this season in the red zone. He currently has zero receiving touchdowns. The average number of red zone receiving touchdowns scored for receivers with at least six red zone targets is 2.5. This equates to an expected 15 fantasy points based on the leaguewide average production for those players. Those "missing" points would give Fitzgerald 23 fantasy points, which would place him tied for 40th among wide receivers. Then add another eight points (his would-be per-game average) to compensate for his bye week and he'd be the 25th-best wide receiver. Those are subjective adjustments, but in the end calculating what is different from the norm will allow you to identify that Fitzgerald has been more unlucky than bad and therefore makes a good buy-low candidate.
[h=3]Most Red Zone Targets, 2014 Season[/h]
RZ TargetsRZ Rec. TDs
Jordy Nelson102
Larry Donnell94
Brandon Marshall95
Randall Cobb84
Martellus Bennett84
Vincent Jackson72
Steve Smith70
Rueben Randle71
Demaryius Thomas71
Delanie Walker72
Antonio Brown73
Ahmad Bradshaw74
Larry Fitzgerald60
Julius Thomas64
Julian Edelman61
Terrance Williams53
Rob Gronkowski53
Mike Wallace53
Michael Crabtree52
Justin Brown50
Jimmy Graham53
Jeremy Maclin51
Hakeem Nicks52
Calvin Johnson51
Andre Johnson50
Alshon Jeffery51
Travis Kelce41
Mohamed Sanu40
Mike Williams40
Lamar Miller41
Jordan Matthews42
Jeremy Kerley41
Heath Miller41
Emmanuel Sanders40
Dwayne Allen42
Donnie Avery40
Donald Brown40
Brian Hartline41
Brandin Cooks41

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[h=3]On target[/h]Receiving yardage is the most variable form of yardage, which makes sense because so much of it is dependent on where the quarterback elects to throw the ball. Because of this, variations in the number of times a player is targeted by his quarterback can greatly change a player's value. So while your receiver may have scored 10 fantasy points in given week, you need to know if it's reasonable to expect that he can repeat that type of performance on a routine basis. If he had one target that he turned into a 40-yard touchdown, you need to realize that he was one quarterback decision away from posting a goose egg. Conversely, if your wideout had 12 targets and finished with 108 receiving yards, his prospects for consistent fantasy production are significantly greater. In the chart below, you'll see all the players averaging six or more targets, the number of routes they average per game and their average depth of target.
Note: Targets are not an official NFL statistic. Based on the methodology that stat services use, the number of targets listed may be different than target values listed elsewhere. The philosophy of ESPN Stats & Information is to count a target when the analyst thinks the pass was actually intended for the player. Therefore, if a quarterback is obviously throwing a ball away, the analyst will not record a target for that pass. This gives a truer representation of what a target is -- i.e., a pass thrown to a particular player with the intent for that player to catch the ball -- and therefore should be more helpful to the fantasy community.
[h=3]Targets Report Through Week 4[/h]
Targets/GmRoutes/GmAvg. Depth/Target
Jordy Nelson12.331.510.8
Jeremy Maclin11.337.317.5
Emmanuel Sanders11.036.712.1
Louis Murphy11.028.010.2
Andrew Hawkins10.726.77.6
Steve Smith10.531.511.2
Jimmy Graham10.532.08.4
Julio Jones10.336.313.5
Antonio Brown9.832.510.7
Roddy White9.740.011.8
T.Y. Hilton9.531.512.6
Martellus Bennett9.331.86.8
Calvin Johnson9.030.315.6
Kelvin Benjamin9.032.813.7
Pierre Garcon9.032.511.8
Demaryius Thomas9.034.77.3
Wes Welker9.031.05.8
Julian Edelman8.833.810.5
Vincent Jackson8.832.012.7
Reggie Wayne8.336.010.9
Victor Cruz8.333.311.2
Dez Bryant8.325.512.4
Mike Wallace8.326.010.8
Delanie Walker8.023.89.2
Andre Johnson8.024.59.3
Alshon Jeffery8.030.811.4
Michael Crabtree8.026.55.8
Sammy Watkins8.030.012.9
Brandon Marshall8.035.310.7
Clay Harbor8.027.02.5
Golden Tate7.832.57.3
Greg Olsen7.827.57.6
Larry Donnell7.826.36.7
Randall Cobb7.530.09.3
Kendall Wright7.529.09.2
Michael Floyd7.330.021.2
Dennis Pitta7.328.35.0
Keenan Allen7.332.59.8
Eddie Royal7.327.59.1
Rueben Randle7.332.89.9
James Jones7.029.39.7
Brian Quick7.026.014.0
Brandin Cooks7.031.57.2
Matt Forte7.031.00.1
Jared Cook7.024.37.2
Larry Fitzgerald7.029.39.6
Heath Miller6.828.86.7
Rob Gronkowski6.816.510.2
Jeremy Kerley6.824.87.2
Justin Hunter6.827.317.4
Robert Woods6.830.09.5
Miles Austin6.723.36.7
Niles Paul6.523.011.8
Anquan Boldin6.528.08.6
Allen Robinson6.521.811.0
Brian Hartline6.532.38.5
Riley Cooper6.537.010.9
Marqise Lee6.528.57.1
Cecil Shorts III6.524.07.2
Giovani Bernard6.317.0-1.0
Denarius Moore6.328.08.4
DeAndre Hopkins6.326.313.1
Markus Wheaton6.331.512.5
DeSean Jackson6.326.011.6
Eric Decker6.320.512.7
Mike Evans6.325.012.1
Travis Kelce6.015.56.5
Donnie Avery6.024.311.9
Marcedes Lewis6.022.07.2

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[h=3]Fantasy insights based on Week 4[/h]Despite the quarterback issues in Tennessee, Kendall Wright makes an intriguing buy-low candidate, as no player with at least 6.5 targets per game has fewer catches per game than Wright. Wright had 94 receptions last year and it's not as if the Titans' quarterback situation was substantially better last year.
This season might very well go down as the Year of the Tight End, as the emergence of Larry Donnell, Travis Kelce and Delanie Walker should have many people wondering why they invested draft picks in Vernon Davis, Jason Witten or Jordan Cameron. All three of these fantasy newcomers are among the league leaders in targets.
Almost 27 percent of Randall Cobb's and 25 percent of Jordy Nelson's total targets have come in the red zone. With those two players converting a combined 33 percent of those red zone opportunities into touchdowns, look for Aaron Rodgers to continue to pass more than run in that area.
Allen Robinson has been targeted 15 times during the six quarters that Blake Bortles has been the Jacksonville Jaguars' quarterback. He has 11 receptions for 111 yards during that time. While that's a small sample size, that is the totality of Bortles' body of work, so it's worth noting and makes Robinson a free-agent target if your team needs depth at wide receiver.
[h=3]Big plays and up close[/h]
There were five NFL players who totaled three rushes that gained 10 or more yards each: [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DeMarco Murray[/FONT] (6), [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Matt Forte[/FONT] (3), [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Le'Veon Bell[/FONT] (3), [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Jerick McKinnon[/FONT] (3) and [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Frank Gore[/FONT] (3). That is four fewer than the number of players with at least three rushes of 10 or more yards in Week 3, which is partly attributable to fewer games played because of the scheduling of byes.Meanwhile, there were only six players who had at least two carries from the opponent's 5-yard line or closer: Lamar Miller (4), Toby Gerhart (3), Matt Forte (3), Matt Asiata (3), Eddie Lacy (2) andAndre Williams (2). Of this group, only Forte failed to score from this distance. For comparison, last week there also were six players who had multiple rushing opportunities from this part of the field.
McKinnon will be a very popular waiver addition, but don't discount the impact that Asiata has had. In five career starts, he has averaged more than 80 yards per game from scrimmage and has produced seven touchdowns.
Forte's three carries from the 5-yard line or closer this past week were his first three of the season from that range. He didn't score and lost a total of 3 yards on those carries. It's still a bit too early to panic on Forte, but if he doesn't produce from close on his next few attempts, his role in that area could be re-evaluated. That being said, Forte is the biggest back in the Chicago backfield, so the change would likely be an increase in pass attempts in that area of the field, which would be good for Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett.
During the past two weeks, LeSean McCoy has rushed for 39 yards and has zero receptions on just two targets. Darren Sproles has 24 rushing yards and five receptions on seven targets. It seems unreasonable to expect those production levels to continue and it likely means that opportunities that have been going the way of Jeremy Maclin and Riley Cooper will work their way back to these two talented running backs.
[h=3]Red zone play selection[/h]Below is a list of all teams, sorted by the number of snaps they have had in the red zone. For the purposes of this analysis, pass plays are defined as all snaps that resulted in a pass attempt or sack, with all other snaps being classified as rushes.
[h=3]Red Zone Breakdown, This Season[/h]
TeamSnapsPass %Rush %
Indianapolis Colts5459%41%
New York Giants5448%52%
Baltimore Ravens4844%56%
Miami Dolphins4745%55%
Kansas City Chiefs4553%47%
New Orleans Saints4154%46%
Green Bay Packers3868%32%
Chicago Bears3773%27%
Pittsburgh Steelers3762%38%
Detroit Lions3658%42%
New York Jets3656%44%
Buffalo Bills3644%56%
Washington Redskins3540%60%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers3554%46%
San Francisco 49ers3537%63%
Philadelphia Eagles3557%43%
Minnesota Vikings3339%61%
San Diego Chargers3358%42%
New England Patriots3253%47%
Denver Broncos3070%30%
Cincinnati Bengals3033%67%
Dallas Cowboys2966%34%
Cleveland Browns2934%66%
Arizona Cardinals2759%41%
Houston Texans2646%54%
Carolina Panthers2638%62%
Seattle Seahawks2536%64%
Tennessee Titans2264%36%
Atlanta Falcons1942%58%
St. Louis Rams1947%53%
Jacksonville Jaguars1450%50%
Oakland Raiders1155%45%

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You might think that St. Louis' lack of attempts in the red zone is significantly affecting Zac Stacy, but it really isn't. Last year, he had 39 carries in the red zone. This year, he has six in three games, which puts him on pace for 32 for the season. He's receiving fewer opportunities, but not enough to explain his dramatic drop in production.
The New York Giants have 28 rushing attempts in the red zone this season. That is 17 more than the Oakland Raiders have total plays in this area. It doesn't make a difference who the Raiders' head coach is, there just isn't enough offensive talent in Oakland for anything trustworthy enough to be considered a fantasy starter.
With 27 rushing attempts in the red zone, the Baltimore Ravens have shown a strong commitment to the run when in close. That's great news for Lorenzo Taliaferro, who has emerged as the go-to-guy when closing in on a score.
 

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[h=1]32 fantasy tips to win in Week 5[/h][h=3]Pick up Seferian-Jenkins now; plus tips on 31 other NFL teams[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Mike Clay[/FONT] | Pro Football Focus
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Welcome back to Fantasy 32. Below I'll provide 32 notes covering each of the league's 32 teams.
Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions and come up with a win in Week 5. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version.
1. Looking for a tight end sleeper? Time is running out to get Austin Seferian-Jenkins on your roster. A poster boy for the importance of monitoring offseason personnel usage, Seferian-Jenkins has been the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' starting tight end since the team's preseason dress rehearsal. He started Week 1 before a foot injury cost him past the two games. In Week 4, he was back, and was on the field for all of the Buccaneers' offensive plays, and was targeted five times. At 6-foot-5, 262 pounds, and with serious pass-catching ability, Tampa Bay's 2014 second-round pick has immediate TE1 upside.
2. Rashad Jennings' owners were panicking Thursday night after the New York Giants' lead back managed only 13 carries for 55 yards. Jennings played three more snaps and had three fewer carries than rookie Andre Williams. There's nothing to be worried about here. Jennings was in the game for 35 of the first 52 snaps prior to sitting out all but one of the final 29. The Giants had a huge lead, and decided to rest their feature back, who four days earlier racked up 34 carries against Houston. Jennings remains on the RB1 radar.
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3. Is Bishop Sankey's emergence here at last? Although he hasn't done much early in games, the rookie paced Tennessee Titans running backs with 49 snaps over the past two weeks. Starter Shonn Greene worked 24, while Dexter McCluster was on the field for 25. Sankey isn't yet a safe RB2 option, especially with Greene running the ball better than expected, but he's a must-stash in all formats.


4. Antone Smith has 21 career touches for 344 yards and five touchdowns. That's an absurd 16.4 yards per touch. The 29-year-old journeyman is currently at the bottom of a four-headed tailback attack for the Atlanta Falcons, but the numbers suggest he should, at least, be given one look as the feature back. You know, just in case he's the greatest running back in NFL history.
5. When the Baltimore Ravens signed Steve Smithduring the offseason, it seemed quite apparent that he would settle in as the team's No. 3 target behind Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta. That obviously hasn't been the case. Although Torrey Smith is ahead in snaps and routes, Steve Smith has more than doubled his teammate in targets (41 to 19). At age 35, it's hard to imagine Smith staying both healthy and effective with this workload, but for now, he's WR2 material. Torrey Smith owners, meanwhile, were bailed out by a Week 4 touchdown, but note that he saw only 11 percent of the targets. Keep him on your bench until his usage rises.
6. Dwayne Allen already has scored three touchdowns this season, but he's not yet a safe TE1 option. Allen's 15 targets rank only 22nd at the position, and that's with six teams on a bye this past weekend. He's been on the field for a respectable 71 percent of the Indianapolis Colts' offensive snaps, but sits fifth on the team in pass routes and sixth in targets. Having missed nearly all of last season due to injury, it's reasonable to expect Allen's involvement to increase as the season progresses, but the more likely scenario has him being too touchdown-dependent to be a reliable TE1.
7. Despite signing on with the Chicago Bears late in the offseason, Santonio Holmes has played a significant offensive role due to injuries above him on the depth chart. With his teammates returning to health, however, Holmes' playing time is dwindling. On Sunday, he played 30 snaps, which was 13 fewer than Josh Morgan. Now fourth on the depth chart, Holmes can be dropped in all but the deepest of formats.
8. The Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, St. Louis Rams, Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals were on a bye this past week, which makes their players slightly more attractive from a fantasy perspective looking ahead. Assuming they stay healthy, the stars on these teams will play every single week going forward. It's a great time to throw out a few one-for-one offers, thus avoiding having to start a replacement-level player down the road. A.J. Green, Zac Stacy, Demaryius Thomas, Montee Ball and Andre Ellington should be atop your shopping list.
9. Following a nine-target performance in place of an injured Jerricho Cotchery in Week 3,Philly Brown was a popular waiver wire add in deeper leagues. Week 4 showed, however, that Brown remains buried on the Carolina Panthers' depth chart. He played 12 snaps in the game. Brown remains well off the fantasy radar.


10. Through four weeks, Brandon Marshall does not lead the Bears in targets. Neither does Alshon Jeffery.Matt Forte? Nope. It's Martellus Bennett, who has racked up a team-high 36 targets. Fantasy's No. 1 tight end thus far, Bennett has 295 yards and four scores to his name. Marshall and Jeffery have missed time due to injury, of course, but this production isn't out of nowhere. Bennett was fantasy's No. 7 tight end when Jay Cutler played last season. It's fair to expect a drop in targets once Marshall returns to 100 percent health, but Bennett will remain a strong TE1 play every week.
11. During the offseason, I wrote an article in which I predicted the 2014 version of 2013 breakout fantasy performers. In that piece, I projected Justin Hunter as this year's Alshon Jeffery. Considering that Hunter has caught only nine of his 26 targets for 138 yards and no touchdowns, that has the early looks of a poor call. Of course, in the "Honorable Mention" section of the Hunter claim, I included DeAndre Hopkins. "Nuk" is well on his way to putting up a Jeffery-like sophomore season. His 291 yards and three scores on 18 receptions have him No. 10 in fantasy points at the position. A first-round pick in 2013, Hopkins is emerging as a serious threat opposite veteran Andre Johnson. Seeing just under one quarter of Ryan Fitzpatrick's targets, Hopkins figures to produce WR2 numbers going forward.
12. If you haven't already added Denard Robinson to your roster, now is the time to do so. With Toby Gerhart struggling out of the gate, Robinson's snaps have progressively increased each week of the season. He played a position-high 36 for the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 4, which was 15 more than Gerhart. Neither back has run the ball particularly well, but Robinson has shown well as a receiver, hauling in all six of his targets. The Jacksonville offense only figures to improve as Blake Bortles settles in, which makes Robinson a player worth stashing on your bench.
13. Pierre Thomas paced New Orleans Saints tailbacks with 23 snaps played Sunday night, but he managed only four touches in the game. After playing a significant early-game role, Thomas was on the field for one of the team's final 24 snaps. It's very possible that Thomas was simply rested with New Orleans getting blown out. Regardless, it's clear Sean Payton is committed to a running back-by-committee, even with Mark Ingram out. Travaris Cadet is worth a look in deep leagues.
14. Rod Streater (foot) and Denarius Moore (healthy scratch) were both inactive Sunday, which left the Oakland Raiders with a new look at wide receiver. Andre Holmes and James Jones were the clear one-two punch, with newcomer Vincent Brown kicking Jones to the slot in three-wide sets. A third-round pick by San Diego in 2011, Brown seemed to be emerging into the Chargers' long-term No. 2 wideout. Instead, he was waived and is already ahead of Brice Butler(and apparently Moore) on the Raiders' depth chart. He's a name to monitor, but not to add.
15. Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell have been stealing the headlines, but Pittsburgh Steelerssophomore wideout Markus Wheaton is picking up steam as a WR3 option. Operating as Pittsburgh's No. 2 wide receiver, Wheaton's 25 targets put him 13 behind Brown for the team lead. Although he's yet to score, Wheaton sits 26th in the league in receptions. Add one touchdown to his total -- a fair move considering the likelihood of regression to the mean -- and he'd be 32nd in fantasy points. Wheaton is a worthwhile buy-low target.
16. For the second consecutive September, Eddie Royal is defying logic by scoring touchdowns despite rarely seeing targets near the end zone. The veteran has as many receiving touchdowns (four) as targets within 12 yards of the end zone. None of his scores have come on end-zone targets. Last season, Royal scored eight touchdowns, but five came during the team's first two games. He was only 1-of-4 in converting end-zone targets on the season. Although Royal is an obvious regression candidate, there is some reason for optimism here. Royal averaged 4.4 targets per game last season, which is well below the 6.75 he's seeing in 2014. Royal is on the WR3 radar during bye weeks.
17. Last week, I noted that, despite a nine-catch, 103-yard Week 3 performance, the snap counts showed that Stevie Johnson was still the San Francisco 49ers' No. 4 wide receiver. I hope you took that advice and left Johnson on waivers. He played only 10 snaps and saw two targets in Week 4. Brandon Lloyd (33 snaps) remains ahead of him on the depth chart.


18. A league-high 36 percent of targets faced by the Dallas Cowboys defense have gone to a tight end. For reference, the league average in the category is 21 percent. Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker,Jared Cook and Jimmy Graham have all had big days against the Cowboys this season. Up next on the schedule for Dallas? The Texans this Sunday, and the Seahawks in Week 6. Those in need of help at tight end should look at Garrett Graham and Luke Willson. The New England Patriots, Browns, Buccaneers and Bengals round out the top five in this category behind the Cowboys.
19. On the other hand, teams have targeted the tight end a league-low 15 percent of the time when facing San Diego this season. In this case, there's not much need for alarm. The Chargers have faced the Cardinals, Seahawks, Buffalo Bills and Jaguars -- four teams who don't heavily involve the position in their passing game. With the New York Jets and Raiders next up on the schedule, expect this trend to continue. The Jets, Kansas City Chiefs, Seahawks and Ravens also rank low in the category.
20. The Browns are coming off a bye, but it's worth noting that through three games, teams heavily target their running backs and tight ends when facing Cleveland. As a result, a league-low 49 percent of opposing targets have gone to wide receivers. The Browns face the Titans this week, so this bodes well for the prospects of Delanie Walker. Already producing top-five numbers at the positon, Walker is an elite play this week.
21. We see it every year. Situational players end up on the fantasy radar because they play a role in an offense that scores a ton of points. So far in 2014, the Falcons and Indianapolis Colts pace the league with 15 offensive scores each. One third of Atlanta's touchdowns have been scored by the duo of the aforementioned Smith (three) and Devin Hester (two). Ahmad Bradshaw is technically the Colts' No. 2 tailback, but he has four scores to his name. The Colts' tight end trio (Coby Fleener, Jack Doyle and Allen) has combined for six touchdowns. For the most part, these players aren't worth starting lineup consideration, but this shows why, when looking for a desperation flier on waivers, you dip into elite offenses.
22. On the other end of the spectrum, we have the teams struggling to find the end zone this season. The Rams have four offensive touchdowns through three games, which works out to a league-worst 1.33 per game. Just behind them are the Bills, Raiders and Titans, who have each scored six times in four games. Cook, Hunter, Kenny Britt, Denarius Moore, Robert Woods,Scott Chandler and Nate Washington are among the regulars from these teams who have yet to score this season.
23. I rarely draft a second quarterback in standard-sized leagues, but when I did this year,Alex Smith was my target. Through four weeks, my late-round investment has looked good. For some reason, the Kansas City offense was overlooked this offseason. We're talking about an Andy Reid-coached unit that actually outscored the Broncos over each team's final eight games last season. This year, the Chiefs sit fifth in the NFL with 12 offensive touchdowns. Smith is 10th in fantasy points among quarterbacks.
I've written at length about opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD) in the past. If you're new to the stat, be sure to check out our introduction to rushing and receiving OTD. The OTD metric weighs every carry or target, and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's touchdown-scoring opportunity.
24. Week 4 saw several surprise names among the top five in rushing OTD. No player had a better opportunity to score on the ground than Lamar Miller. Filling in as the Miami Dolphins' lead back while Knowshon Moreno returns to health, Miller converted four carries within four yards of the end zone into two touchdowns. Miller (2.4) is fifth overall in rushing OTD for the season, and is certainly playing well enough to retain a prominent offensive role once Moreno returns.


25. Rounding out the top five in Week 4 rushing OTD were Matt Asiata, Forte, Gerhart and Andre Williams. Asiata scored three times on five tries within 6 yards of the end zone. Gerhart continues to struggle with overall efficiency, but he converted one of two tries at the goal line. No player without a rushing score this season has more carries than Forte's 65. Expect some regression to the mean in the category in the coming weeks, which is good news for Forte owners.
26. Considering his three-touchdown explosion Thursday night, no one should be surprised to see Larry Donnell atop the receiving OTD leaderboard this week. Donnell caught three of his four end-zone targets, and is now 4-of-6 in the category this season. Having seen at least 21 percent of Eli Manning's targets in all four games this year, Donnell is a safe TE1 option going forward.
27. Jordy Nelson, Jeffery and a pair of Buccaneers (Vincent Jackson and Louis Murphy) round out this week's top five in the receiving OTD department. Nelson's four end-zone targets bring his season total to a league-high nine. Jackson (eight), Steve Smith (eight), Randall Cobb(seven) and Marshall (seven) are the only other players with more than six. Despite scoring twice in four games, Jackson has caught a miserable 33 percent of his 36 targets. He's an obvious bounce-back candidate. Murphy, who was just re-signed last week, is a flash in the pan. He failed to catch three end-zone targets. Even with Mike Evans out for a few weeks, Murphy is not worth picking up.
We can learn a lot about a team's offensive scheme by examining its pass-run ratio. By adjusting it to account for the score and time remaining in the game (or, "game flow"), we have even more useful information at our disposal.
28. I touched on this a week ago, but it's worth noting that, though four weeks of play, the Cowboys are the league's run-heaviest team. Despite the pass-heavy tendencies of coach Jason Garrett and playcaller Scott Linehan, Dallas has called pass 51 percent of the time, which is a league-high 6.2 percentage points below expected based on game flow. The new philosophy seems to be working, as Dallas is 3-1 and tied for fifth in the league in offensive touchdowns. Even more important, the success of the running game is keeping the team's underwhelming defense on the sideline. Opposing offenses are averaging 59 plays per game, which is fourth-lowest in the league. This is obviously great news for the NFL's leading rusher, DeMarco Murray, and the added offensive efficiency has meant no drop-off for Tony Romo.
29. The Jets, Browns, Rams and Giants round out the top five run-heaviest teams in the league. Chris Ivory has emerged as the lead back for the Jets, putting him in the RB2 mix going forward. Chris Johnson owners need to look elsewhere for a RB2 after he managed only eight touches on 18 snaps in Week 4. The Giants looked bad early this season, but it turns out that their Weeks 1 and 2 opponents, Detroit and Arizona, have pretty good defenses. Eli Manning & Co. looked exceptional against Washington and Houston the past two weeks. It's a good time to buy on Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle and Odell Beckham.
30. On the other hand, we have the league's pass-heaviest teams. The Panthers made a legitimate effort to run the ball against the Ravens this past Sunday, but still sit a league-high 5.5 percentage points above their expected passing rate. Rounding out the top five are the Colts, Lions, Packers and Eagles. The Packers and Eagles weren't expected to be near the top of this list, but struggling running games have both of them leaning heavier on their quarterback. It's safe to assume both teams will make an attempt to run more often going forward. Eddie Lacy and LeSean McCoy are logical buy-low options.
31. Another interesting aspect of game flow is its impact on defenses. For example, offenses have called pass 67 percent of the time against the Jets this season, which is a league-high 10 percentage points above expected. This makes perfect sense when you consider the Jets' strong run defense and their weak secondary with Dee Milliner out of action. With the Jets headed to San Diego this week, it's safe to expect a huge game from Philip Rivers. Other defenses facing pass-heavy game plans include the 49ers, Jaguars, Bills and Redskins.
32. The Rams, meanwhile, have seen teams scheme to run the ball against them this season. Opposing offenses have called pass 46 percent of the time, which is a league-high 12 percentage points below expected. As a result, St. Louis has allowed 125 rushing yards or more in all three of its games. This suggests struggling LeSean McCoy will be in for a massive workload this Sunday. The Eagles' offensive line is beat up, but keep in mind that Lane Johnsonreturns from suspension this week. He was excellent, especially as a run-blocker, during the second half of 2013. This is your last chance to buy low on McCoy. The other defenses facing run-heavy game plans are the Falcons, Packers, Raiders and Patriots.
 

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[h=1]Five stars to buy low or sell high[/h][h=3]Murray among fantasy commodities worth shopping, plus top wire pickups[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]KC Joyner[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

It's getting close to midseason in fantasy football, which means the time is right for owners to start to consider making superstar trades that can elevate their teams to the top of the pack or cement their first-place status.
The key to making these deals happen is to identify superstar players who are either undervalued or overvalued. The key to getting the most out of these deals is to use that information to help make what is a fair deal based on current market value, but one that will turn in your favor in the future.
This week's Fantasy Foresight article offers to assist in this endeavor by reviewing the buy-low or sell-high trade cases of five superstar players. This list includes two upper-tier quarterbacks, one of the best vertical wide receiver threats in the game and a former running back points champion. But the most notable player on this list is one of the leading point producers in fantasy football this season who should warrant serious sell-high blockbuster trade consideration, given how likely it is his production will fall off from its current elite level.
Also included below are three players whose outstanding Week 5 performances will continue this season, three players who are not likely to repeat their Week 5 successes or struggles, and three waiver-wire suggestions heading into Week 6.

[h=3]Star sell-high candidates[/h]
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DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys
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Great run blocking has been a major key to making Murray the best fantasy running back around, but the biggest difference in his turnaround is workload. Through the first five weeks of the season, Murray is averaging a combined total of 29 rushes/receptions per game. Prorate that over a 16-game season, and it would equal a total of 464 rushes/receptions, a mark that would be the second-highest in league history.
Any back would be hard-pressed to keep this pace up, and that goes double for someone with Murray's injury history. Fantasy owners know him as someone with durability concerns; he has missed 11 games during his three-year pro tenure and has never posted as many as 300 rushes/receptions in a single NFL season (the 270 in 2013 is his career high). Some of that may stem from the wear and tear he dealt with in college, as his 916 rushes/receptions in his four seasons at Oklahoma (2007-2010) were second-highest in college football in that time frame.
It may be that Murray has found the secret to pro-level durability in his fourth NFL season, but it would seem just as likely that his workload will be reduced in the final 11 games of the season. That's why it may pay for Murray owners whose rosters need shoring up in other areas to consider trading him at this current peak value. Make a deal for a high-quality RB1 and starting-caliber player at another position and it might just be the kind of trade that pays off with a title.
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Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Outside of the "Monday Night Football" game against New England, in which he posted 28 points, Charles has scored a meager 10 points. Things may not be trending for the better, as three of the next four weeks have Charles dealing with the tough run defenses of San Diego and the New York Jets, along with a bye week where he won't provide any value.
Throw in a Week 11 matchup against Seattle and a Week 14 contest against Arizona and there may not be many more of those huge double-digit games in Charles' near future. Move him while his value is still close to its usual level.

[h=3]Star buy-low candidates[/h]
i


i


Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys; Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys
The Dallas offense has been one of the powerhouse groups in the NFL this season, but that hasn't fully translated into fantasy success for these two. Romo's 15.4 fantasy point-per-game average (ranked 14th) doesn't automatically justify keeping him if a solid backup is available. In Bryant's case, he currently ranks 15th in vertical receiving yards per game (46.6) and is barely outpacing teammate Terrance Williams in fantasy points per game (11.8 for Bryant, 10.8 for Williams).
Those production levels should change, given the aforementioned idea that the Dallas offense will have to move some of the workload away from Murray. The Cowboys also haven't quite fully tapped into passing game coordinator Scott Linehan's vertical pass approach, and that could change down the stretch.
There is also the fact that Dallas has a ton of favorable pass-defense matchups the rest of the season, including four combined contests against Washington and Philadelphia, a game against Chicago and a battle with Jacksonville in London. These factors should combine to move Romo back to top-10 quarterback status and vault Bryant into top-five wide receiver contention when all is said and done.
i


Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
Brees is something of a special buy-low case. He is currently posting 16.8 fantasy points per game. That ranks 10th among quarterbacks and is an indicator that many fantasy owners may have a backup passer who is putting up similar point totals. Add in a bye in Week 6 and a Week 7 game against a Detroit defense that came into this past week ranked first in quarterback points allowed, and it means Brees isn't likely to get back to his historically elite fantasy production levels in the next couple of weeks.
That would seem to preclude his inclusion on this list in the short term, but Brees' potential value starts to skyrocket once those weeks are behind him. This is especially true during the fantasy playoffs, as Brees has a playoff stretch run that includes what looks to be highly favorable matchups against Pittsburgh, Carolina, Chicago, Atlanta and Tampa Bay.
It should also be noted that for all of the hue and cry regarding the state of the Saints' offense, this platoon has not lost its vertical bent. Brees is averaging 13 vertical throws per game (defined as aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield), a mark that ranks tied for third among quarterbacks who have been every-week starters this season. That type of aggressiveness should eventually pay off with huge point totals. Brees' owners will be rewarded for sticking with him the next few weeks, but it's worth floating an offer to the possibly frustrated Brees owner in your league.

[h=3]Week 5 performances that will continue[/h]
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Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
As Rob Gronkowski goes, so goes the Patriots' passing game. On Sunday night against the Bengals, Gronkowski set season highs in snaps (64), receptions (6) and receiving yards (100), and that's a big part of why Brady racked up 20 fantasy points.
Add in matchups against the Jets and Bears in Weeks 7 and 8, respectively, and Brady could be in the 20-point neighborhood quite often in the near future.
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Golden Tate, WR, Detroit Lions
Tate was brought in to be the alternate receiving threat to Calvin Johnson, but Megatron's injury has allowed Tate to take over a larger role lately. He has posted five or more receptions in every game this season and has racked up 15 receptions for 250 yards and a touchdown the past two weeks.
Tate now has established himself as a go-to target; once Johnson returns to full strength, expect Matthew Stafford to continue sending a solid target volume in Tate's direction.
i

Branden Oliver, RB, San Diego Chargers
Oliver shows the value of quality over quantity. The Chargers' run blocking is so suspect that all but two of Oliver's carries against the Jets gained six or fewer yards. Oliver made the most of those two carries by racking up a 15-yard touchdown run and a 52-yard gain on his way to a 29-point showing.
Ryan Mathews will still be the workhorse of this offense once he returns, but with this type of potential game-breaker on the roster, look for San Diego to continue to find ways to get Oliver on the field.

[h=3]Week 5 performances that won't continue[/h]
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Travis Benjamin, WR, Cleveland Browns
Before thinking of putting in a waiver claim for Benjamin due to his 16-point performance against Tennessee, keep this in mind: He has posted more than 50 receiving yards in a game only once, and his four receptions against the Titans was only the second time in his three-year NFL career he posted that many catches in a single game.
One of his two touchdowns this past weekend came on a play where a Titans pass-rusher inexplicably held up in his pass-rush pursuit on a bootleg by Brian Hoyer, and it gave Benjamin much more time to get open than he should have had. Don't bank on that type of thing happening with any regularity.
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Austin Davis, QB, St. Louis Rams
It is incredible but true: Davis has as many 20-point games (2) this season asAndrew Luck and Philip Rivers. That may speak well to coach Jeff Fisher's confidence in naming Davis his team's starter, but before staying on that bandwagon, let's consider the Rams' matchups during the next four weeks: San Francisco, Seattle, Kansas City and San Francisco again.
The odds that Davis continues on that 20-point streak seem incredibly low, and he might have trouble staying in the double-digit point range.
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Victor Cruz, WR, New York Giants
Even the best players will sometimes post subpar fantasy point totals when facing weak competition. That was the case with Cruz when he tallied a meager two points against Atlanta, which stopped his two-game double-digit fantasy point streak.
With matchups against the incredibly weak Philadelphia and Dallas pass defenses the next two weeks, Cruz should find his way back to the double-digit range soon.

[h=3]Three waiver-wire pickups to make[/h]
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Brian Hoyer, QB, Browns (owned in 2.7 percent of ESPN leagues)
Hoyer has scored 12 or more points in every game this season and has a higher fantasy points-per-game average (15) than Nick Foles (14.6), Ryan Tannehill(14.3), Joe Flacco (14.2) and Ben Roethlisberger (14.2). A player of that caliber should be owned in more than one out of every 30 ESPN leagues.

i


Andre Williams, RB, Giants (owned in 36.4 percent of ESPN leagues)
Williams is not really a breakaway threat, but his workhorse history (he led the nation in carries and rushing yards in his senior season at Boston College) shows he has all the makings of a bell cow back if Rashad Jennings misses any time due to his MCL injury.

i


Justin Forsett, RB, Baltimore Ravens (owned in 21.8 percent of ESPN leagues)
Forsett ranks eighth in running back scoring this season, and has more fantasy points (56) than all of the other Ravens running backs combined (49). Question marks about his future playing time are why his ownership level isn't higher, but at this point it would seem that question mark ought to be cast aside.
 

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[h=1]Branden Oliver steals the show[/h][h=3]Chargers' rookie surprises off the bench, while Peyton-Demaryius combo explodes[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Tristan H. Cockcroft[/FONT] | ESPN.com

The season's leading single-game scorer among running backs -- not the week's, the season's -- was a player owned in less than 1 percent of ESPN leagues, and one now certain to be one of the most popular pickups entering Week 6.
His name is Branden Oliver and, with Ryan Mathews (knee) likely out at least another 1-2 weeks (that per the San Diego Union-Tribune), Danny Woodhead (fibula) out for the season and Donald Brown (concussion) a question mark for Week 6, he's an intriguing pickup heading into a favorable Week 7 matchup at the Oakland Raiders. In an effective "relief" appearance, Oliver scored 29 fantasy points in Week 5.
That got us to thinking: How rare was Oliver's relief effort?
To find the answer, we sought only performances in non-starts -- remember that "starts" are often subjective among NFL running backs, so using them can result in an imperfect sample -- from players who totaled 50 percent or less of their teams' total rushing attempts in the given game, during the past 14 seasons (2001-14). As it turns out, Oliver's effort indeed stands out from a historical angle:
[h=3]Most points by RBs with 50% of team's carries or less
Single game, since 2001
[/h]
SeasonPoints% of carries
Derrick Blaylock (KC)20043739%
Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC)20063536%
Willis McGahee (BAL)20093446%
Brian Westbrook (PHI)20063344%
LenDale White (TEN)20083243%
T.J. Duckett (ATL)20043026%
Arian Foster (HOU)20103047%
Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC)20072946%
Branden Oliver (SD)20142948%
Marion Barber (DAL)20072844%
Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG)20092827%

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Consider some of the names from that group: Blaylock's came in a game during which hisKansas City Chiefs set a team single-game rushing touchdown record (eight), as a "reliever" for an injured Priest Holmes, who departed early with a mild ankle sprain. Blaylock made just eight starts during his NFL career, largely stuck behind Holmes in Kansas City and never emerged in two subsequent years with the New York Jets.
Jones-Drew, who also had a third such game of 27 fantasy points that barely missed the top 10, was a classic "backup" -- again, this referencing the folly of NFL "starts" -- who really wasn't, at least not from a fantasy perspective. During his first three seasons in the league, he routinely took a back seat to Fred Taylor from the angle of "starts" -- Taylor started 43 games to Jones-Drew's four -- yet he outscored Taylor in terms of fantasy points in each year, as well as 581-364 during the three-year span combined.
Westbrook was making his only non-start during a four-year span (2005-08) in which he played and started 55 of 56 contests, primarily the result of his having missed practice during the week because of swelling in his knee (he was listed as questionable).
Meanwhile, McGahee, White, Duckett and Barber were classic "finishers" during those seasons in question; from a fantasy angle we'd have called them "goal-line vultures." The three combined for 26 touchdowns on carries within the opponents' 3-yard line in those years, with White pacing the league in the category in 2008.
That leaves Foster and Bradshaw, two examples Oliver's soon-to-be fantasy owners hope he'll emulate. Both put forth their performances early in their runs as productive starting fantasy running backs; Foster's came in his fourth game of his breakthrough 2010 (he had 41, 12 and 10 points in starts the first three weeks), and only his 10th career NFL contest; Bradshaw's occurred in his 32nd career NFL game, all of which were relief appearances, in a season in which he scored 127 fantasy points (followed up by 179-, 146- and 143-point campaigns). Could Oliver follow suit? Well, like Foster, he went undrafted, and like Bradshaw, he has probably carved out a larger role in the San Diego Chargers' backfield, as Bradshaw did back then for the New York Giants.
And, even if Oliver's performance ultimately winds up Blaylock-esque, here's a tidbit to at least support his one-week-pickup candidacy: His performance came against a New York Jets defense that had allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (6.0), including limiting Eddie Lacy to five (Week 2), Matt Forte to seven (Week 3) and Reggie Bushand Joique Bell to eight combined (Week 4). If Oliver earns a Week 6 start, he'll be going up against a Raiders team that has afforded 21.3 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, including 16 to Chris Ivory and 14 to Chris Johnson (Week 1), 20 to Foster (Week 2) and 16 to Lamar Miller (Week 4).
Go get him.
[h=3]Miscellany[/h]Peyton Manning joined an exclusive club Sunday, completing his 500th career touchdown pass -- followed shortly thereafter by his 501st, 502nd and 503rd -- putting him five scores shy of Brett Favre's record. While Manning might trail Favre in that department, one category in which he doesn't is total fantasy points in his career: He has 4,240, having passed Favre's 4,178 in Week 2 of this season.
Incidentally, when Favre was the age Manning is today -- 38 years, 195 days -- he had just 3,634 career fantasy points. Among those who have played since 1960, Dan Marino was next-closest at that age, with 3,554 fantasy points.
But perhaps most impressive about Manning's 31-point fantasy day in Week 5, the third-highest-scoring game by any player so far in 2014, was the fact that it gave him six consecutive regular-season team games with 20 or more fantasy points. He's the first player to do that since Drew Brees (2011 Week 13 through 2012 Week 1), again proving himself the most consistently productive quarterback in fantasy football.
Demaryius Thomas scored a season-high -- among all players -- 34 fantasy points, though that's still a far cry from the since-1960 record among wide receivers; it's 18 shy of Jerry Rice's 24-year-old standard. But in a PPR (point-per-reception) league that otherwise utilizes ESPN standard scoring, Thomas' score was 42, five more than any other player has amassed in a game this season, and the most by any wide receiver since Eric Decker (49), Josh Gordon (48) and Alshon Jeffery (48) in Week 13 last season. Thomas also set new personal bests, topping his 28 standard fantasy points from Weeks 1 and 10 of 2013, and his 35 PPR points of Week 10 of 2013.
Phil Dawson managed 20 fantasy points, the second highest single-game total by a kicker so far this season; Stephen Gostkowski managed 21 fantasy points to top the effort only hours later. Dawson is hardly the first to scale that plateau -- there have been more than 70 instances since 1960, including 17 since the beginning of 2010 -- but he is one of the oldest. Specifically, he's the third-oldest to do it:
[h=3]Oldest kickers with 20-plus fantasy points
Single game since 1960
[/h]
SeasonAge (Yrs-Days)Pts
Adam Vinatieri201340-33820
Morten Andersen200040-1522
Phil Dawson201439-25520
Gary Anderson199839-15023
Eddie Murray199337-3522

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[h=1]Four Downs: Injuries galore!
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By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Eric Karabell[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

Stop if you've heard this one before: Injuries already have played a significant role in the Week 5 fantasy results, as several high-profile players left their games prematurely and could end up missing significant playing time. Here are my initial thoughts on the most important fantasy options:

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Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans Saints: The best tight end in the sport went to the locker room in the first half Sunday because of a right shoulder injury, and to the chagrin of many, he did not return to help his team to an exciting 37-31 overtime victory. He scored just three fantasy points. Graham is pretty much irreplaceable in fantasy, so hopefully he doesn't miss any games. With quarterbackDrew Brees throwing three interceptions and failing to reach 20 fantasy points in any game this season, Graham was the one Saints player retaining top value. Don't try to trade him for less than full value until we learn the extent of the injury, but the way Brees has played -- with and without Graham -- it's becoming tough to presume he's in the top tier of quarterbacks with Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck, and Philip Rivers might have passed him as well. If the news on Graham is grim, then Denver Broncos tight end Julius Thomas will vault to the top of the tight end rankings this week.

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Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions: A week ago I moved Brees and Philadelphia Eagles running back LeSean McCoy out of the top spot at their respective positions, and now it's unfortunately time to do the same with Johnson, who reinjured his right ankle early in the third quarter Sunday after his lone reception of the game and was done. Johnson, who seemed to be more of a decoy in the first half, has three receptions for 19 yards over the past two weeks, and it wouldn't be surprising if the team sits him down for a week or two to let the injury heal. Frankly, this wouldn't be the worst news for his fantasy owners, who will never sit this superstar unless forced to but have received just one fantasy point in two weeks. I've resisted comparing Johnson's plight to that of Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Roddy White one season ago. White played through injury and frustrated fantasy owners to no end with underwhelming statistics. I'd still trade for Johnson if the price was right, even if he misses a few weeks, hoping for second-half production. Meanwhile, Golden Tate had his second consecutive stellar fantasy effort, posting 19 standard points, and whether Johnson misses Week 6 at Minnesota or not, it's reasonable to make Tate a WR2. And don't assume quarterback Matthew Stafford is a must-start now, either, though I doubt he misses the top 10 in Week 6 considering the foe.

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Reggie Bush, RB, Lions: The lure of Bush being the last man standing in the Detroit backfield earned him overrated status for sure this week. Colleagues Joique Bell (concussion) and Theo Riddick (hamstring) did not suit up, but Bush didn't do much before suffering an ankle injury; he was already ceding carries to unknownGeorge Winn, who made his season debut and turned his 11 carries into 48 yards. Winn wouldn't make for an awesome free-agent addition this week, as his value remains tied to all others missing time. But this is a reminder that Bush is clearly overrated. He's among the running back leaders in receptions, which is great for point-per-reception formats, but if he's more like last year's Pierre Thomas than last year's Reggie Bush, then he's barely an occasional flex choice for standard formats, not a star.

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Rashad Jennings, RB, New York Giants: What a pity that this emerging talent, finally getting a real opportunity with a veteran-laden team at 29 years old, suffered a sprained knee and figures to miss time. Jennings was on his way to a nice game, too, as the Falcons clearly can't stop the run. Rookie Andre Williamslooked quick and powerful en route to 20 carries for 65 yards and a touchdown, his second consecutive double-digit fantasy effort. A timetable on Jennings' injury should come Monday, but Williams should go near the top of the free-agent additions for the week, though not the very top (more on that soon).

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Montee Ball, RB, Denver Broncos: A groin injury removed Ball from Denver's romp over the Arizona Cardinals and creates opportunity for Ronnie Hillman, but it's worth noting that Ball wasn't putting up elite numbers to begin with. OK, so he's clearly not Knowshon Moreno, though it's a tad unfair to compare them since Ball's schedule has been considerably more difficult so far. Regardless, Peyton Manning, Julius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and now Demaryius Thomas have managed to overcome the challenging schedule, but Ball has not. Keep him owned, but he's no longer even an RB2 until he proves otherwise.

Second down: How about some good news! Houston Texans running back Arian Fosterrebounded from his disappointing performance in Week 4 by shredding the Dallas Cowboys for 157 yards and two touchdowns (28 fantasy points), his best fantasy game since Week 10 of the 2011 season. Foster has topped 100 rushing yards three times already, and it appears all that's holding him from top-5 overall status is health.

If you're concerned Foster can't stay on the field, trade him now, but you should get a lot back. The other starting running back was DeMarco Murray (136 rushing yards, 16 standard points), and he became the third player to rush for more than 100 yards in each of his first five games of a season, joining O.J. Simpson and Jim Brown. Murray also has lost four fumbles already, which for anyone not leading the league in rushing would be something to watch, but he's the best player in fantasy, so he's forgiven. Last year's full-season leaders in running back fumbles had four. Don't be shocked if Foster and Murray finish 2014 as the top two nonquarterbacks.

Third down: Several teams haven't been so fortunate to rely on one running back to put up big numbers, but if it creates opportunity for someone who can run with it, we're all for that.San Diego Chargers rookie Branden Oliver, looking a lot like a former Charger who wore the same number 43 in Darren Sproles, replaced a concussed Donald Brown on Sunday and embarrassed the New York Jets for 114 rushing yards, 68 receiving yards and a touchdown on the ground and through the air. Oliver has been mentioned in this space prior, as Brown wasn't accumulating many fantasy points after the Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead injuries anyway. What happens when Mathews returns, perhaps later this month? Oliver looks like he has staying power, at worst as a receiver out of the backfield, and he becomes a must-own and the top free-agent addition this week, especially with the Chargers facing the lowly Oakland Raiders in Week 6.

Fourth down: Four wide receivers entered the Sunday night game having scored two touchdowns, with Denver's Demaryius Thomas the lone superstar of the group. The others deserve attention, though. Brian Quick of the St. Louis Rams has been consistent through four games and should be owned in all leagues at this point, a potential WR3 should quarterbackAustin Davis continue to put up nice numbers. Kendall Wright of the Tennessee Titans was really good last year with 94 receptions and 1,079 yards, but scoring a mere two touchdowns tends to get one overlooked. Wright has three touchdowns after five weeks and an enticing schedule the rest of the way, which should warrant him occasional WR3 placement. Travis Benjamin of the Cleveland Browns also scored twice, including the stunning game winner, and while quarterback Brian Hoyer appears better than most realize, it's hard to recommend Benjamin, who is still buried on the depth chart. If you were one of the few who had him active Sunday, though, many congrats!
 

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[h=1]Long-term pickups for Week 6[/h][h=3]Joseph Randle among players to pick up now who can help in future[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Matt Williamson[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

This was another amazing week of football, particularly during the early Sunday games, where nearly every matchup was highly competitive and went down to the wire or even into overtime. Unfortunately, injuries to big-time fantasy assets including Calvin Johnson and Jimmy Grahamalso occurred in the ever-changing NFL and fantasy landscape.
Fortunately for fantasy owners, only the Kansas City Chiefs and New Orleans Saints are on bye next week, but as always this time of week, it's time to do inventory of your roster and what might be available on your waiver wire -- including players who might not provide an immediate impact but can help you a few weeks down the line.

[h=3]Re-draft[/h][h=3]14-team or larger leagues[/h]
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Randle
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Joseph Randle, RB, Dallas Cowboys<offer></offer>
DeMarco Murray is on pace for 464 touches this year. That is a lot. Murray doesn't exactly have the greatest durability track record to begin with, and coach Jason Garrett said this week that the team will have to watch Murray's workload. The Cowboys are a run-heavy offense, and that might change to some degree if Murray were to go down, but they do have possibly the league's best offensive line.
Randle had two carries for 4 yards against the Houston Texans, but if Murray were to fall, Randle would be an every-week starting running back. Get him now on the cheap and stash him in bigger leagues.
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Smith
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Antone Smith, RB, Atlanta FalconsHow can the Falcons not keep feeding Smith the ball? If he gets just a little space, he is gone in a flash. And he is doing it week after week. This isn't a fluke. Smith touched the ball only four times in Week 5, but gained 85 yards, including an 83-yard catch-and-run. He is one of the league's most explosive players and now has three long touchdowns this season and four in five games. What if Atlanta starts getting the ball in his hands 10 times per game?
Others to consider: Kenny Britt, Jerricho Cotchery, Owen Daniels, Roy Helu, Brian Hoyer,Christine Michael, Eddie Royal, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Michael Vick

[h=3]12-team leagues[/h]
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Williams
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Andre Williams, RB, New York GiantsRashad Jennings injured his knee against the Atlanta Falcons and did not return. As a replacement, Williams ran hot and showed great power. While Jennings is out, Williams will produce yards on the ground and touchdowns in this offense -- and it wouldn't be a surprise to see this as something of a timeshare when Jennings does return. While he didn't catch a pass during his exceptional final season in college, Williams did record his first two NFL receptions with Jennings out of the lineup.
Although I expected bigger numbers against the porous Falcons' defense, I am all on board with the Giants' offense. Williams has been dropped in a lot of 12-team leagues. Scoop him up now -- he has immediate value, and will likely continue to be a contributor the rest of the way.
Others to consider: Davante Adams, C.J. Anderson, Odell Beckham, Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, Jared Cook, Benjamin Cunningham, Mike Glennon, Stevie Johnson, Marvin Jones,Carson Palmer, Allen Robinson, Kenny Stills

[h=3]10-team leagues[/h]
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Hunter
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Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee TitansIf he has been dropped, which in a 10-team league is rather likely, put a claim in for Hunter this week. The bulk of Hunter's 99 yards came on one play, a 75-yard catch-and-run for a touchdown, but that one play showed what he is capable of because of his talent.
Jake Locker injured his hand in this game and didn't return. There is a great chance that Charlie Whitehurst is the quarterback here for a stretch. But is there really a huge difference between Locker and Whitehurst for this passing game? I tend to think not, and Whitehurst is actually the more accurate of the two passers. Also, Hunter led all Titans wide receivers in snaps this past week. He'll have value the rest of the season.
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Thomas
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Pierre Thomas, RB, New Orleans SaintsThe Saints' running back situation is always among the most difficult to decipher for fantasy, and Mark Ingram should return soon to cloud the picture even further. But you have to hand it to Thomas, who remains a very reliable do-it-all running back.
With Jimmy Graham possibly out for a while, the Saints' offense and especially the passing game needs someone to lean on. That could be Thomas, who despite carrying the ball just four times, managed to rack up 112 total yards and two touchdowns Sunday. The Saints throw to their running backs like crazy (Thomas did lead the league in receptions for a running back in 2013) and it looks as though he is now back atop that role in New Orleans.
Others to consider: Dwayne Allen, Justin Forsett, Jerick McKinnon, Branden Oliver

[h=3]Dynasty[/h]
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Tim Wright, TE, New England PatriotsAfter the Patriots added Wright in the Logan Mankins trade, New England's new tight end might already be in your dynasty league. But after doing very little (much like the Patriots' offense) through four weeks, he could be on your waiver wire, and surely is in almost all re-draft leagues. The Patriots' offense isn't an easy one to learn, so don't hold it against Wright that he was so quiet early in his New England career. But he is a move tight end for whom Bill Belichick obviously had a plan.
Let's just say he broke out Sunday night, mostly attacking the seams of Cincinnati's defense. I am not going to compare him to Aaron Hernandez as many others will, but Wright is just getting warmed up, especially considering that he played only 19 snaps in this contest and was so productive in limited chances.
Others to consider: Justin Brown, Marlon Brown, Austin Davis, Taylor Gabriel, Marquise Goodwin, Robert Herron, Andre Holmes, Storm Johnson, De'Anthony Thomas, Logan Thomas,Luke Willson, George Winn, Jarius Wright
 

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[h=1]32 fantasy tips to win in Week 6[/h][h=3]How to value Beckham and Patterson, as well as other tips for the week ahead[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Mike Clay[/FONT] | Pro Football Focus

Welcome back to Fantasy 32, where I'll provide 32 notes covering each of the league's 32 teams.
Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions and come up with a win in Week 6. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version.
1. The 12th overall pick in the 2014 draft, Odell Beckham Jr., finally made his NFL debut Sunday. It didn't take long for him to dispose of Preston Parker for the No. 3 wideout job, which led to 33 snaps and five targets. If you've read past versions of the Fantasy 32, you know the New York Giants rank among the league leaders in three-wide receiver sets. Beckham has the talent to emerge into an elite player, and he is going to play a lot. He's already a WR4 and could be in the WR2 mix as early as the second half of this season. Meanwhile, expectVictor Cruz and Rueben Randle (more on him later) to see slight dips in their target numbers.
2. Cordarrelle Patterson has been a disappointment. But keep in mind that he <offer></offer>had 23 offensive touches for 198 yards and no scores through 10 games last season. Albeit on a larger snap count, he went on to rack up 43 touches, 429 yards and six touchdowns over the final six weeks. Patterson is a special talent, and the struggling Minnesota Vikings offense needs him more involved. Add the probable Week 6 return of Teddy Bridgewater to the mix, and there's still plenty of reason to believe Patterson will emerge as a viable weekly starter.


3. Through five weeks of play, no team is averaging fewer offensive plays per game than theGreen Bay Packers. At 54.8, the Packers are significantly below both their 2013 mark (66.8) and the NFL league average (64.2). An early-season schedule that included two of the league's toughest defenses (the Seattle Seahawks andDetroit Lions) and a pair of blowout wins (theChicago Bears and the Vikings) seems to be the culprit. Expect some serious regression to the mean in this category. This is great news for the touch numbers of the team's skill position players, especially Eddie Lacy.
4. Zach Ertz was a popular 2014 breakout candidate, but those paying close attention to thePhiladelphia Eagles' offense knew there was a reasonable chance he would be a victim of Chip Kelly's "spread-it-around" scheme. Through five weeks, it's been a problem for all Philadelphia pass-catchers not named Jeremy Maclin. Having seen 25 targets (five per game), Ertz is fourth on the team in the category. He has converted the looks into 16 receptions for 259 yards and one score. Ertz has a ton of ability, but he's nothing more than a borderline TE1 until he's more involved.
5. Steven Jackson has two touchdowns in the Atlanta Falcons' past three games and is fresh off an 18-touch performance against the Giants. This is probably your best chance to sell. The Atlanta offense is scoring a ton of points, which would usually make its lead tailback quite valuable, but Jackson has been on the field for only 39 percent of the snaps. Even worse, he's been the least productive among the team's four running backs. The veteran has 295 yards on 72 touches. Jacquizz Rodgers, Devonta Freeman and Antone Smith have combined for 572 yards on 74 touches. It's reasonable to expect the younger backs to see an expanded role at Jackson's expense.
6. Montee Ball is expected to miss a few weeks with a groin pull, but I don't recommend overspending to acquire Ronnie Hillman via waivers. First of all, as tough as the Denver Broncos' schedule has been thus far, it doesn't get much easier on running backs going forward. Following a Week 6 meeting with the New York Jets, the Broncos host the San Francisco 49ers and San Diego Chargers. Their future schedule includes the New England Patriots, St. Louis Rams, Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals. Moreover, although Hillman was the clear lead back in Week 5, note that C.J. Anderson was inactive. Hillman figures to lead this backfield until Ball returns, but Anderson and rookie Juwan Thompson will chip in as well.


7. Kelvin Benjamin has been a terrific fantasy asset this season, but a few owners out there are sure to overreact after the rookie was limited to three catches for 38 yards Sunday. Don't be one of them. Benjamin was targeted nine times in the game, and has now seen at least 28 percent of the team's targets in three consecutive games. There aren't a ton of wide receiver workhorses out there, but he's clearly one of them. This may be your last chance to get him at a discount.
8. The Jets averaged 1.6 offensive touchdowns per game in both 2012 and 2013. After failing to find the end zone against San Diego on Sunday, they average 1.6 per game here in 2014. Nearly a full score below the 2.4 league average, this is an offense to avoid when looking for bye week replacements.
9. New York's offensive struggles shouldn't be a surprise, but Detroit's should. After scoring four times against the Giants in Week 1, the Lions are averaging a miserable 1.75 offensive touchdowns per game during their past four. Calvin Johnson hasn't been at 100 percent health for a few weeks, but it appears he will now miss a week or so with an ankle injury. The good news here is that the schedule isn't too hard. Expect Matthew Stafford & Co. to rebound against Minnesota, New Orleans and Atlanta over the next three weeks.
10. Following a breakout three-score game in Week 4, Larry Donnell burned his fantasy owners with a zero-catch performance in Week 5. Don't panic just yet. Consider the percentage of the Giants' targets Donnell has seen by week, starting with Week 1: 26, 24, 22, 21, 3. There's some serious consistency there followed by a massive one-week drop. The aforementioned Beckham is finally in the mix and will surely steal his share of targets, but Donnell's heavy offensive involvement isn't an accident. The Giants' offense is playing well, and it's clear Donnell is a part of the weekly game plan. Going forward, he's a midpack TE1 option.
11. Knile Davis has been so effective filling in for Jamaal Charles that it was reasonable to wonder if the Chiefs would turn to more of a time share at the position. Week 5 usage suggests there is no trace of a committee here. Charles racked up 15 carries while in on 39 of the team's 50 offensive snaps. Davis managed only two carries on seven snaps. Charles remains a strong RB1 option, while Davis is fantasy's top running back handcuff.
12. Ben Tate was back in Week 5, and it was very clear that he remains Cleveland's feature back. Tate was on the field for 49 of a possible 74 snaps, racking up 22 carries and a pair of targets. Isaiah Crowell played 14 snaps, compared to 11 for fellow rookie Terrance West. That duo combined for 13 carries. Tate is clearly the man to own and start here, but both rookies are worth stashing, as Tate's durability issues are well documented and the Browns clearly want to run the ball.
13. Sticking with the "Tate" theme, we have Lions No. 2 wideout Golden Tate. With Calvin Johnson limited the past two weeks, Tate has been a busy man. He totaled 19 targets in the two games, which worked out to over 30 percent of the team's targets on both occasions. If Johnson sits out this week, as expected, Tate is squarely on the WR1 radar. Likely to be a major value, target him in daily formats.
14. It appears that Bernard Pierce is no longer the lead back in Baltimore. Now two weeks back from a thigh injury, Pierce still sits third in the running back pecking order. In Week 5, Justin Forsett handled 41 snaps, compared to nine for Lorenzo Taliaferro and five for Pierce. Pierce should still be stashed in deeper leagues, but he's safe to drop in most formats.
15. For the first time this season, the Rams had all of their wide receivers available in Week 5. This allowed us to finally get a good look at their preferred personnel usage. Unsurprisingly,Brian Quick remains the clear top wideout. He paced the unit in snaps (60) and targets (nine).Kenny Britt worked 46 snaps, while Austin Pettis was surprisingly third in line with 35. Tavon Austin (24) and Stedman Bailey (17) combined for five targets. Quick is clearly in the WR2 mix, but no one else in this unit is currently worth owning.
16. I'm fully aware that I talk about Justin Hunter too often, but Week 5 was a big step in the right direction for the second-year wideout. Hunter was promoted to a starting role and paced all Titans offensive skill position players with 63 snaps. He was targeted only four times, but he caught a 75-yard touchdown. Now an every-down player, Hunter is back in the WR3 mix. He should be owned in all formats.


17. One of the main beneficiaries of the Patriots' Week 5 offensive explosion wasTim Wright. The second-year tight end caught all five of his targets for 85 yards and a touchdown. Lining up primarily at wide receiver and sporting No. 81 on his jersey, onlookers couldn't help but compare his usage and production to that of Aaron Hernandez. As appealing as that would be from a fantasy perspective, keep in mind that Wright played just 19 snaps in the game and has been on the field for 20 percent of New England's plays this season. It's possible Wright's role increases after the strong performance, but as Ladarius Green apologists know all too well, it's far from a guarantee. Wright is worth a stash in deeper leagues.
18. The Chiefs and Bills are the last of the teams yet to surrender a rushing touchdown this season. Kansas City's defense has allowed only nine total touchdowns through five games. The Chiefs are on a bye this week, but face the Chargers, Rams and Jets in their next three games. The Bills' defense, meanwhile, has surrendered only seven scores in five games, which is tied with the Ravens for the best rate in the league. The Bills host the Patriots this week before taking on the Vikings and the Jets. Downgrade opposing running backs accordingly.
I've written at length about opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD) in the past. If you're new to the stat, be sure to check out our introduction to rushing and receiving OTD. The OTD metric weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity.
19. For the second consecutive week, a member of the Giants led the way in the receiving OTD department. Following the footsteps of Donnell, Randle was in the end zone on three of his 10 targets Sunday. The big week propelled Randle to third in the receiving OTD department overall this season. His 4.1 OTD suggests he should have more than the two touchdowns he's managed thus far. Even with Beckham in the mix, Randle is a WR3.
20. Standing 5-foot-10 and 186 pounds, Antonio Brown hadn't been one of Pittsburgh's primary goal-line targets early in his career. That seems to have changed here in 2014. Brown sits second overall in end zone targets. His 4.3 OTD mark suggests that his five touchdowns are far from a fluke. Already a target monster, Brown is unquestionably a top-five fantasy wide receiver.
21. End zone targets are the easiest path to touchdowns. So far in 2014, your leaders in the category are as follows:
• 9: Jordy Nelson, Steve Smith
• 8: Vincent Jackson, Randall Cobb
• 7: Brown, Randle, Brandon Marshall, Jeremy Maclin
• 6: Calvin Johnson, Benjamin, Donnell, Terrance Williams, Antonio Gates, Demaryius Thomas

22. Only two players racked up more than one carry within 5 yards of the opposing end zone this past weekend. They were Tom Brady and Stevan Ridley. Brady failed to score, but Ridley was able to pound one home from 1 yard out. Brady's goal-line carries were a bit fluky, of course, but Ridley's were not. Now third to only Rashad Jennings and Alfred Morris in the rushing OTD category this season, Ridley has five carries within 3 yards of the end zone. Interestingly, Shane Vereen has racked up five carries within 6 yards of paydirt. In other words, New England keeps its running backs busy near the end zone.
23. Tailbacks score 54 percent of the time from the opposing 1-yard line, which is a significantly higher rate than any other distance. Here are your leaders in carries from that distance this season:
• 5: Jennings
• 3: Ridley, Morris, Trent Richardson
• 2: Taliaferro, Joe Flacco, Arian Foster, Giovani Bernard, Toby Gerhart

24. While your competition is busy competing on waivers for Hillman, Andre Williams andBranden Oliver this week, dig a bit deeper and consider Storm Johnson. Jacksonville's seventh-round selection in May's draft, Johnson played the first seven offensive snaps of his career Sunday. Neither Jordan Todman (21 snaps), Denard Robinson (16) nor Gerhart (10) has yet to emerge as a productive lead back, which puts Johnson in position to steal the job. He's not yet a safe start, but is worth stashing in leagues with deep benches.
We can learn a lot about a team's offensive scheme by examining its pass/run ratio. By adjusting it to account for the score and time remaining in the game (or, "game flow"), we have even more useful information at our disposal.


25. Five weeks in, the teams we expected to be among the pass-heaviest in the league are finally working their way to the top of the chart. The Colts' pass/run ratio is fairly balanced, but don't be fooled: They are the league's pass-heaviest team. The Colts have called pass 62 percent of the time, which is a league-high seven percentage points above expected based on game flow. This is outstanding news for Andrew Luck's prospects, as well as primary targets T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne,Dwayne Allen and passing-down backAhmad Bradshaw. The Lions, Broncos, Bears and Panthers round out the top five game flow-adjusted pass-heaviest teams.
26. If we don't adjust for game flow and simply look at each team's pass and run calls this season, it's the Raiders who rank as the league's pass-heaviest team. Stuck playing from behind in each of their first four games, the Raiders have called pass 70 percent of the time. With Rod Streater out for a few months, James Jones and Andre Holmes stand to benefit from Oakland consistently trailing in the second half. Expect the duo to rank among the league leaders in garbage-time fantasy points going forward. Both are WR4 material.
27. On the other hand, we have the league's run-heaviest teams. Without Josh Gordon, but with an impressive trio of tailbacks, the Browns have devised game plans around their running game more than any other team. Their 54 percent pass rate is nine percentage points below expected. Game flow suggests Cleveland should be the league's seventh pass-heaviest team, but instead they're among the run-heaviest. The Browns are 2-2 and, as NFL schedules go, they have a fairly easy one going forward. Tate, Crowell and West are going to be extremely busy and, as mentioned earlier, should be owned in all formats. The Jets, Texans, Giants and Cowboys also rely heavily on their running games.
28. The Dolphins changed offensive schemes this past offseason, but that hasn't changed their heavy usage of three-wide receiver sets. In fact, through five weeks of play, no team has used its "11" personnel package -- three wide receivers, one running back, one tight end -- more often than Miami. Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has been rotating wide receivers behind Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline, but it's clear that 2014 second-round pick Jarvis Landry is the most likely to emerge as a fantasy asset. A short-range target, Landry doesn't figure to score many touchdowns, but an every-passing-down role would allow enough targets to put him on the WR4 radar.
29. One quarter of the way through his season, Michael Floyd has 12 catches for 259 yards and no touchdowns. Arizona has already had its bye, which leaves Floyd 54th in fantasy points in non-PPR and 61st in PPR. As ugly as that is, there's plenty of reason for optimism here. First of all, Carson Palmer has appeared in one game this season. In that one game, he completed five of his seven throws to Floyd for 119 yards. Palmer is expected back in Week 6. Second, through four games last season, Floyd had 16 catches for 240 yards and no touchdowns. He went on to score five times later in the year, which helped him to a 21st-place finish in fantasy points at the position. Third, he currently owns the league's highest average depth of target mark (19.8 yards), which explains his low catch rate and means plenty of opportunity for big plays. There's very little Floyd hype out there right now, which makes it a great time to try to buy low.
30. Speaking of buy-low options, it's a great time to try to acquire Brandin Cooks from an impatient owner. Cooks has amassed an underwhelming 87 receiving yards during the past two weeks, but he still paces all Saints wideouts with 41 targets and is fourth in the league with 32 receptions. Also involved as a rusher, Cooks has 64 yards on five carries. The Saints are headed for a bye, so his value is as low as its going to be all season. Emerging as Drew Brees' favorite target not named Jimmy Graham, Cooks is a WR2 going forward and has WR1 upside in PPR leagues.
31. Travis Kelce has been on the field for only 48 percent of the Chiefs' offensive snaps this season, which makes the fact that he's ninth among tight ends in fantasy points quite impressive. He has 20 receptions for 274 yards and three scores on 27 targets. Kelce is averaging a position-high 0.27 fantasy points per snap. It's only a matter of time until Kelce is playing an even larger role. He's a quality TE1 option.
32. Andre Ellington is fresh off a Week 5 explosion in which he racked up 144 offensive yards and scored twice on 20 touches. Although that seriously damages his buy-low appeal, I still recommend you attempt to acquire him. Ellington has been nothing short of a workhorse since Jonathan Dwyer was put on the reserve/non-football illness list. During Arizona's past two games, Ellington handled 34 of the 36 carries by the team's running backs, and also was on the receiving end of 18 percent of the team's targets. The Arizona offense has struggled to stay on the field and find the end zone without Palmer, but, as mentioned earlier, he's expected back under center this week. Ellington is a fine RB1 option.
 

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[h=1]Backfield breakdown entering Week 6
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By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Eric Karabell[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

There are myriad changes to the fantasy football running back depth chart after Week 5, as injuries removed several starters, others currently healthy retained their top role and usage altered a few other situations. And yet I'm keeping an eye on the two winless teams because I refuse to believe a viable running back is incapable of coming from the Jacksonville Jaguarsand Oakland Raiders. These teams are, not surprisingly, the worst in the NFL in rushing yards per game, but it's possible the underused personnel is in place to change that.
Toby Gerhart has gone from intriguing volume option in Jacksonville to waiver-wire fodder in one month's time, as he plods his way to 2.6 yards per carry. Sure, Gerhart has been dealing with an ankle injury since Week 2, but the team has changed quarterbacks to a more mobile option and it hasn't mattered. On Sunday, Gerhart, the former Minnesota Vikings backup, was given four rushing attempts and turned them into nine yards. He looks awful. Storm Johnson, the team's seventh-round pick from Central Florida, achieved 27 yards on his four carries, including a 20-yarder that is the team's longest run of the ugly season, and one would think he gets more chances moving forward. Gerhart has failed. So has Denard Robinson. Jordan Todman gets on the field quite a bit but rarely to touch the football. Why not Storm Johnson? This week's foe is the Tennessee Titans and they've been awful against the run since Week 1. I can't make a case to use a Jaguars running back, but in a deep league I'm preemptively adding Johnson this week in case opportunity comes his way.
The Raiders come off their bye week with a new interim coach in Tony Sparano, and he's made it clear in the past he favors the run, and has told reporters he's focusing on this sputtering aspect of the team's offense. As with the Jaguars, a rookie quarterback in Derek Carr needs some semblance of a run game to take the pressure off him, but Maurice Jones-Drew has rushed 11 times for 12 yards this season. He's apparently over his hand injury and should see an increase in touches this week against San Diego. Darren McFadden looks slow and tentative after years of injuries. Fantasy owners have been waiting on Latavius Murray to get a chance, but no adjustment in his role seems imminent. Murray has been returning kicks. The Chargers figure to score quite a bit and provide Murray chances at that. Can a Raiders running back succeed when the team trails early each week? Perhaps not, but I'm watching a (finally) healthy Jones-Drew this week. There's certainly nothing in his statistics to suggest there's upside or fantasy-relevance yet, but I see Sparano giving MJD a chance and last season the former Jaguar managed to rush for 803 yards and five scores, while ranking among the top-20 running backs in receptions.
Other news: Going in alphabetical order by team with notable chart alterations, Antone Smithof the Atlanta Falcons forces his way into the "handcuff" section. The guy makes so many big plays, one wonders why he doesn't get more chances. Certainly Jacquizz Rodgers isn't special. … Presumed Baltimore Ravens starter Bernard Pierce got four carries Sunday. Enough. Perhaps he's still not 100 percent healthy, but Justin Forsett clearly appears to be the team's choice these days. … Enough with C.J. Spiller, too. Fred Jackson is just so much more effective for theBuffalo Bills. Also, there's no sign that Bryce Brown will become a factor soon. … What's the deal with the Carolina Panthers? They probably don't know. Darrin Reaves and Chris Ogbonnaya are the top guys today, with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart out. There's no fantasy value with any of them, though. … Ben Tate is back on top for the Cleveland Browns, but I think Isaiah Crowell is next instead of Terrance West. And this matters, because Tate is not durable. … The Denver Broncos will be sans disappointing Montee Ball for likely the rest of October due to a groin injury. Ronnie Hillman should see more touches than Juwan Thompson and C.J. Anderson, but not enough for RB2 status. … Detroit Lions co-startersReggie Bush and Joique Bell haven't been good, opening the door for someone named George Winn to step in. Don't part with Bush yet or add Winn. But Bell doesn't seem a factor anymore. … I switched Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson with the Indianapolis Colts. Yes, Bradshaw isn't the most durable fellow himself, but the Colts have to realize which guy is more effective. On Sunday, Bradshaw saw plenty of chances. … Remember that the Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints will get their potential starters back any week now in Knowshon Moreno andMark Ingram, and this will negatively affect Lamar Miller and Khiry Robinson, respectively. … No word yet on how much time New York Giants surprise Rashad Jennings will miss with his knee injury, but presuming it's at least Week 6, Andre Williams is the new starter. And he's a potentially good one. … Donald Brown of the San Diego Chargers was first underwhelming, now concussed, so Branden Oliver takes over starting duties until Ryan Mathews returns. And former Chicago Bear Shaun Draughn appears next in line. … And finally, the expected promotion of Tennessee Titans rookie Bishop Sankey to relevance was put on hold so Shonn Greene could run into his offensive linemen repeatedly. Own Sankey, for his chance has to come at some point, but Greene remains the starter.
Phew, good luck with your running backs in Week 6!
 

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[h=1]Fantasy RBs to pick up this week[/h][h=3]Berry and Schefter weigh in on RB targets, Tim Wright's outlook and more[/h]
By Matthew Berry and Adam Schefter | ESPN Insider

Every week during the NFL season, Matthew Berry will be engaging in a discussion with an NFL expert on topics that will provide valuable insights for fantasy owners. For this pre-Week 6 edition, Berry and ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter look at top fantasy running back pickups and debate whether Tim Wright is poised to break out.
[h=3]Which fantasy RBs taking on bigger roles will have the most success?[/h]
Matthew Berry: First of all, Adam, I just wanted to say that I'm really excited to have you as the guest for my Insider column this week. You're incredibly plugged in around the league and the very definition of an Insider, so it'll be fun to run through these fantasy questions with you. You began your career in Denver, so let's start there. What's going on at the running back position, now that Montee Ball is sidelined for a few weeks with a groin injury? Ronnie Hillmanseems to be in line to take over the starting role but, tell me if I'm wrong here, it just feels as though every time he's gotten the opportunity he hasn't been able to -- pardon the pun -- run with it. What do you think the running back pecking order is in Denver?
<offer></offer>
Adam Schefter: I think you're exactly right. Hillman hasn't ever proven that he can be trustworthy. Now maybe he'll surprise all of us this time, become really productive in the running and passing games, become a PPR machine. One of the three backs is going to emerge while Ball is out -- Hillman, Juwan Thompson or C.J. Anderson -- but I'm not betting on it being Hillman long-term. I think there's a better chance that it'll be one of the other two. The Broncos really need a dependable running back, since Ball hadn't separated himself or become a huge factor yet this season. They really miss Knowshon Moreno. I might put in a claim for Hillman, but I'd be happy with either one of the other two guys. In a 16-team league like the War Room one you and I are in, all three should be owned.
Berry: I have Hillman ranked first among those three, because he has the easiest path to fantasy relevance and he clearly has the most burst and explosiveness. I put the pecking order as Hillman, Thompson and Anderson. But it just doesn't seem like he's been able to seize these opportunities in the past. If he or one of the other two comes out and kills it the next few weeks, however, could Ball lose his starting job?


Schefter: Absolutely. I'm not saying it willhappen, but it's not as though Ball has distinguished himself as the lead back to this point in the season. Let's say Thompson gets the call and just lights it up, racking up a ton of yards, catches and touchdowns. Do you really think they'll go away from him? If he or one of the others starts playing really well, they wouldn't just go back to Ball. It's the same way withKirk Cousins and Robert Griffin III in Washington; if Cousins plays really well (and I thought he looked good against Jacksonville and Philadelphia before struggling against the Giants and rebounding slightly against the Seahawks), they're not going to just automatically go back to RG III once he's healthy.
We're at the point of the season, though, when every fantasy owner is looking for running backs. Last week, I had the No. 1 waiver claim in our league, but there weren't any great options available. What I ended up doing is stashing away a guy who I think will be a factor later this season in Oakland Raiders RB Latavius Murray. Granted, we're in a 16-team league, so there might be better available options in 10- and 12-team leagues. But when you can pick up a running back who will at some point contribute in a big way, that's gold. He's going to get some run at some point, I promise you. Whether it's Week 6, Week 10 or later, the Raiders aren't going to want to keep running out Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew once they're completely eliminated from contention. They're going to want to see what they have in a guy like Murray.
Berry: I can see that happening, especially with Oakland now having a new head coach, and McFadden and Jones-Drew not having the greatest injury histories anyway. Murray is a guy with a lot of talent, so it would be interesting to see what he could do if he got the job. There's a lot of good stash-candidate running backs out there right now. Ka'Deem Carey, Joseph Randle and Charles Sims (when he comes back from injury) would have a lot of value if any of them got starting jobs.
Staying in the AFC West, Chargers RB Branden Oliver had a huge game on Sunday. I'm wondering if San Diego thinks he can be an every-down back. He looked like Darren Sprolesout there, with his quickness and No. 43 jersey, but he's actually built a little bit bigger. I think we've already seen his best game of the season, but can he still play a big role once Ryan Mathews returns from injury?
Schefter: We may well have already seen his best game of the year, but that best game would be the best game of the year for a lot of good backs. Mathews is a couple of weeks away from coming back, and once he is back, if Oliver is still playing well, they can work in tandem. The thing with Oliver is that he has impressed the Chargers all through the spring and the summer -- this isn't just one game in which he's played well. He isn't going to touch the ball 25 times per game once Mathews is back, but do you think they'll take him off the field if he's playing well? No way.


Berry: I could see him being a 10- to 12-touch-per-game guy once Mathews is back, and he has a great matchup this week against Oakland. One thing's for sure: Donald Brown's value has taken a huge hit with Oliver's emergence.
A San Diego receiver who has frustrated his fantasy owners this season is Keenan Allen. A lot of times when a highly drafted receiver is struggling it coincides with quarterback or offensive issues, but that isn't the case for the Chargers. Philip Rivers has been great, so what's the issue?
Schefter: Rivers has been tremendous this season, including in fantasy. I had him on my team last year, but didn't get him this year. That's my bad. But in terms of Allen, I think it's just a matter of there being a lot of guys for Rivers to throw to. Eddie Royal's emergence has hurt Allen's numbers. Malcom Floyd is back healthy. Antonio Gates is always going to command a lot of targets. Allen isn't a Calvin Johnson or an A.J. Green where you're going to design a ton of plays for him. Now, I'm still a fan of Allen, and I've tried to trade with Tim Hasselbeck to get him a couple of times this season. But he's definitely taken a hit in value.
Berry: I have Allen as a WR3 going forward, not a WR2. He's really a matchup play. You'd expect him to have a really nice game versus Oakland this weekend, but then again, you would have thought that for him against the Jets this past week, and against the Bills before that. And I've heard the same thing about the San Diego offense: They don't scheme specifically for Allen, and Rivers is going to just get the ball to the open man. At this point, I just don't think fantasy owners can count on Allen consistently the way they could last year.
What do you think about the Dolphins' running back situation? Lamar Miller has looked great the past two weeks -- is he still the starter when Moreno returns from injury?
Schefter: I still don't know when Moreno will come back healthy, Matthew, but I think once he does they'll go with the hot hand in Miller and something of a committee approach overall. Moreno had emerged as the guy prior to his injury, and he's showed us in fantasy before that we shouldn't ever count him out. He's been unbelievable like that. But yes, I think both guys will play.


Berry: The Dolphins are running the ball enough that both are high-end flex types, even if they're splitting the carries. And with Green Bay, Chicago and Jacksonville as the next three games on the schedule, things line up really nice from a scheduling standpoint for Miller and then also Moreno if he's active.
I've got one last player I want to ask you about, Adam. Tight end Tim Wright had a big game for the Patriots against the Bengals on Sunday night, being really productive in limited snaps. It seemed like New England was getting back to its old form with an explosive offense, and two tight ends in Wright and Rob Gronkowski. I was watching them and asking myself, "Where have those guys been?" Do you have any insight into what the Pats are thinking with regard to Wright and how they'll use him going forward?
Schefter: The Patriots are always one of the most unpredictable teams. They are a team where I feel like the more I know, the less I know, if that makes sense. So I can't tell you with any certainty what they're going to do, but I do know they like Wright. I don't think you can rely upon him every week in fantasy, but I do think he'll have some flash games like he did against Cincinnati, because the Patriots are always mixing up offensive approaches and playing to the matchups. I'll put a claim in for him this week, but if I land him I might not play him over Eric Ebron.
I'll tell you what, though, Matthew. One of the most frustrating things for me in playing fantasy football is that I'll speak to coaches, and they'll tell me this guy will have a big year, and then he won't. Or coaches will say, "Look for this guy to get involved," and then he'll get one target in the first quarter, it falls incomplete, and then they never go back to him the rest of the game. I've had that happen before. The fact is that sometimes even the people involved don't know what's going to happen.
Berry: That's so true. We saw that these past couple of weeks with Giants TE Larry Donnell, who benched himself for Vernon Davis on his own fantasy team the week he scored three TDs against the Redskins. There was one time that we had Steve Smith on in the preseason, before one of his final seasons in Carolina, and we asked him to give us an over-under prediction on his projection. He said, "I don't know, those numbers seem high. You've gotta remember that I'm 32 years old now." So he totally sandbags himself, and then goes out and has a monster season, scoring higher than his projections.
But that's a really interesting point you're making. I mean here you are, the guy with every NFL general manager's number, and ...
Schefter: And even they don't know! These lineup decisions we're making, they are just educated guesses. That's why I have a tremendous amount of respect for what you do, and you do it well. Because I get asked all the time to give fantasy players help with their lineups, and the truth is I'm asking other people all the same questions for my team. You just need to play the best hunch you can.
Berry: That's very well said, and I think our readers will take solace in knowing that. Good luck with the waiver wire this week, Adam.
 

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[h=1]Love or hate 'em; just keep it simple[/h][h=3]The biggest mistake you can make, in life and fantasy, is overthinking the obvious.[/h]
[h=1]Love or hate 'em; just keep it simple[/h][h=3]The biggest mistake you can make, in life and fantasy, is overthinking the obvious.[/h]
The first thing you should know about my friend Jenny is that her real name isn't Jenny.

You'll soon see why I changed her name, because the rest of the story is 100 percent true.
Back when I lived in Los Angeles, Jenny was introduced to me by a mutual friend. Starting with a common love of, and later frustration with, the Lakers, Jenny and I found we had a lot in common and quickly became good friends. She looks like your typical thin California beach blonde, which throws off a lot of people who play into the stereotype, because she's whip-smart, knows more about sports than almost anyone I know, has a great sense of humor, is super laid-back and is just one of the all-time great "hangs." You'll pardon the expression, but she's the very definition of "a cool chick."
The story starts with a catch-up phone call I was having with her. After asking how my wife and kids were and exchanging updates on our jobs, Jenny drops the big headline. She and Phil (also not a real name) have broken up. They'd been living together for four years, so I was shocked they had called it quits and asked why they had split up, how it had all happened and who got custody of the cat.
Turns out it had happened a few months ago, so she had started getting out there on the dating scene for the first time in a number of years. "How's it been going?" I asked.
"Been interesting. Have gone out on dates with everyone from nerdy guys five years younger than me to Studs McAthlete."
I'm sure you could have figured it out yourself, but "Studs McAthlete" is another name change. The guy in question is a super-famous former professional, a household name, controversial and talented athlete who has Hall of Fame-level credentials, single, between the age of 40-50. Depending on which fantasy sport you play, you definitely owned this guy at one point and spent a fairly high draft pick on him. For our story purposes, we'll call him Studs.
"Wait. The Studs McAthlete?"
"Yep. I know! Crazy right?"
"How'd you meet him?"
"Met him at work, he asked for my number, I gave it to him." (Jenny works at a well-known media company in L.A.) "I mean, what the hell, right?"
"That's hilarious. So you went on a date with Studs?"
"A few in fact. Five, I think."
"Wait, you're dating Studs??? Way to bury the headline, Jenny."
"OK, I know. It's just so ridiculous. And whatever. There's no future there."
"Why not? You never know."
"Well for one, he's stupid. I mean, like really dumb. And he doesn't really watch sports, which I thought was weird. Like I'll bring up something from a game the other night and he'll have no idea what I'm talking about. I can't be with someone that doesn't love sports."

I know. I told you. Jenny is super cool.
"No, I know some former professionals who never watch games once they are done. But yeah, knowing you, that would drive you nuts," I said.
Having lived in L.A. for a long time, Jenny is not impressed by money or celebrity, couldn't care less about either. So I asked, "Why are you hanging out with him, then?"
"Well, he's really nice. He's chill and not in my business all the time. And we actually do have fun together."
"Have you hooked up with him yet?"
"Nope."
"No?? Seriously?"
"Seriously. Nothing. Just hanging out. We have dinner and watch movies. That's it."
"Has he made a move, or does he just want to be friends?"
"No, he's tried, but I say no and he doesn't push it."
"Five dates, huh? Wow, he's putting the work in."
"He really is."
"So what's the issue?"
"I told you. There's no future there. I'm not marrying this guy."
"Of course not. But you just got out of a five-year relationship. You just told me you're not looking for anything serious right now, right?"
"No, not at all. I definitely want to be single for a while."
"Are you attracted to him?"
"Yes. Definitely."
"Then this is actually perfect for you right now. What's the issue?"
"I don't know. I don't want to lead him on."

I literally laughed out loud. "Look, Jenny, I adore you. You know this. You're a great girl. But he's a world-famous multimillionaire who has been single his entire life for a reason. I'm pretty sure he's not looking to settle down anytime soon, and I'm positive it's not with you after five dates, wonderful though you are."
"Hmmm," is all she could reply, pensively.
"I love that your ego is worried about leading him on, I think you're safe there, but you know what? Just go to him and say you know, hey, I like you, but I just got out of a long-term relationship and don't want anything serious. If we can keep things casual, great, let's keep hanging out. But if you want something more serious, we should just remain friends. And see what he says. I will bet you anything you want he says he's OK with keeping it casual. And if he isn't, then you know. Communication is never a bad thing."


"Should I say it? Or should I text it? I don't know."
"Either. It doesn't matter. Tell me when I say something false. You're both adults, you're both single, you're both attracted to each other, he's made moves, and having listened to your dating adventures for a decade now, I know you really like hooking up. Stop overthinking this and have some fun."
"Huh. I hadn't really thought about it like that."
Six hours later, I get a text from her.
"Done. Fantastic!! Thanks for the advice ..."
OK, so I had a lot of reactions to this story, but the three big takeaways for me were:
1. I'll never understand the thought process of women.
2. I can't believe I had to anonymously wingman for a world-famous millionaire athlete. This dude owes and has no idea.
3. People overthink things way too much. They do it in dating. They do in life. And they definitely do it in fantasy football.
I'm guilty of throwing a lot of stats out there, and there's no doubt you can gain an edge with stats and scouting and film work and insider knowledge from team sources and beat reporters. There's no doubt. But in a lot of cases, it's not that tough.
Got this question on Twitter today: "Thoughts on Kendall Wright or Brandon Marshall at WR for my @espn fantasy team this week?"
Not trying to pick on any one question, but this is a classic example. Yes, Wright had two scores last week and has a nice matchup with Jacksonville. Certainly he could have a better day than Marshall. He did last week, as it's been a quite few weeks for Marshall. But come on: better quarterback, better player ... this isn't even close. I have Marshall as a clear top-10 play this week at Atlanta and Wright as a top-30ish wide receiver, depending on who is at QB for the Titans. This is overthinking things.
I see it on Twitter and Facebook all the time. From friends who text me or readers asking. People overthinking, second-guessing themselves, playing low-percentage odds because of a recency bias or because they've thought so much they can't see straight. It's paralysis by analysis.
What's the most obvious answer is often the correct one. We're five weeks in. Time to accept what Larry Fitzgerald is at this point. That the running back situation in places like Baltimore is going to continue to be a mess. That you're not starting Eli Manning over Andrew Luck. I love Eli this week, have him as a top-10 play, but I just don't see a scenario where you are benching Andrew Luck. Back and forth we go, studying everything, overanalyzing. Stop overthinking. Again, the obvious answer is most often the correct one. In fantasy football and in life.
Play the odds, put ourselves in the best position to succeed, and hope for the best. Because when you overthink, that's when you've already lost. Or are not having fun on a date.
Before we get into Love/Hate, I just want to mention that if you're curious as to why I tend to avoid team names in this column, I wrote about my conflicted feelings as a fan of Washingtonearlier this week.
And a huge shout-out to Zach Rodgers and all the mystery-solving kids from ESPN Stats & Information for their help with this column and every Love/Hate, whether I mention them or not. Let's get to it.
[h=3]Quarterbacks I love in Week 6[/h]Peyton Manning, Denver: The most obvious of obvious names, I just wanted to put him in here to give a salute. My colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft noted in his Monday Fantasy Fallout column that Manning passed Brett Favre for the most career fantasy points in ESPN standard scoring in Week 2 of this season. As more people are playing with decimal scoring these days, he still has yet to pass Favre in that scoring system. That could change Sunday, though. With 12 more fantasy points, Manning will pass Favre for the most fantasy points of all time (or at least, since the merger in 1970), pretty much regardless of your scoring system, and it looks like it will be a long time before anyone catches him. Here's the all-time top five in fantasy points in decimal scoring:


Brett Favre, GB/MIN/NYJ: 4,371.2
Peyton Manning, IND/DEN: 4,360.2*
Dan Marino, MIA: 3,594.5
Jerry Rice, SF/OAK/SEA: 3,581.8
Drew Brees, SD/NO: 3,321.4

*Entering Week 6
So a tip of the cap and a doff of the mobile app to Peyton Manning, who continues to crush and add to his legendary career.
Jay Cutler, Chicago: Yes, he's locked into your lineup these days, but on the road at Atlanta, I have him second overall. With at least two scores in every game, Cutler has 12 touchdown passes this season. Eleven of them have come when he's not under pressure. Which makes sense -- most QBs are better when not under pressure, but Cutler significantly so. Well, the Falcons pressure quarterbacks on 17 percent of their dropbacks, the lowest rate in the league. Giving up 260 passing yards a game, 24th most in the NFL, this should be a high-scoring game. Who led your team to victory, you'll be asked next week? Why, the Cutler Did It! ... Move along. Nothing to see here. Keep moving. OK, that's enough. Nothing to see.
Eli Manning, New York: Andrew Luck. Aaron Rodgers. Philip Rivers. Over the past four games, those are the only quarterbacks with more fantasy points than Eli Manning. Surprised? The Eagles aren't. He usually lights them up. Last 10 times against the Eagles, Eli has averaged 266.4 yards and 2.4 touchdowns per game. Oh, and in case you haven't noticed, the Eagles have allowed the most passing touchdowns this season. As the kids say: Bet the over.
Carson Palmer, Arizona: Forget about the neck and concentrate on Washington! If he starts, I like him against Washington, because I like anyone against Washington. Even you.
If you're desperate: Andy Dalton usually plays well at home, averaging almost 250 yards and over two touchdowns a game, and Carolina hasn't been Carolina for a while, tied for the fifth-most passing touchdowns allowed this season. ... Eli and Dalton in the love section; what is the world coming to? Next I'll be recommending Brian Hoyer. Well, now that you mention it, this is the "desperate" section, and I will say that Hoyer is averaging 18 points the last two weeks, playing well and has a legit run game to set up the pass. Next up for him is Pittsburgh, and throwing out the Jacksonville game, the Steelers have given up over 15 points a game to opposing QBs.
[h=3]Quarterbacks I hate in Week 6[/h]Tom Brady, New England: Really, Berry? Back for more after last week? And the answer is yeah, I am. No doubt, he looked great last Sunday night. He's also played five games this season, and four of them have been terrible. Need to see it again before he makes it back to my top 10, and I don't that happens against the Bills. Last three games against Buffalo, Brady has been limited to 13.3 fantasy points per game. Also, we've seen how Brady struggles with pressure in the pocket. In fact, he's completing just 39 percent of his passes under pressure this season, 25th among 33 qualified quarterbacks. No team has more sacks this season than ... the Buffalo Bills.
Cam Newton, Carolina: Still not running, he's averaging 13.8 fantasy points per game. You know who else is averaging 13.8 fantasy points a game (with at least three games played this season)? E.J. Manuel. That's what we are currently talking about. He'll get healthier and have a nice second half, I believe, but this week, I'm not a fan. After being embarrassed on Sunday night, I like the Bengals to come out fired up. The Bengals -- even after last week -- still give up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs.
Tony Romo, Dallas: On the road at Seattle in a run-first offense. Just because it's obvious doesn't mean it's not true.
[h=3]Running backs I love in Week 6[/h]Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati: And now, an actual transcript from inside Bengals offensive coordinator Hue Jackson's mind: "Hmm. A.J. Green is banged up. But luckily, the Panthers are giving up the most yards per carry in the NFL this year (5.4). My good pal Matthew Berry owns Giovani Bernard in the War Room league and has a tough matchup this week. I think I will run Giovani hard in this game to great success. It's the least I could do after Matthew saved my life by donating his kidney to me. I love that Matthew Berry. He's really a great American. I will do this for him. Yes. All Gio all the time. That is what I will do. Now that our game plan is settled, what is for lunch?"
Andre Williams, New York: Twelve, count 'em, 12 red zone rushes for Andre Williams the past two weeks, three more than any other player during that span. Scored in each game as well, now has job to himself after the injury to Rashad Jennings, and gets an Eagles team that has given up 18 points a game to opposing running backs in every non-Jacksonville game.
Ben Tate, Cleveland: Hey, he's healthy now! Small sample size caveats and all that, but he is averaging 5.9 yards per carry. Browns ran for almost 200 yards and two scores the first time they played Pittsburgh and will be able to run on them again.
Branden Oliver, San Diego: Make no mistake, you've seen Branden Oliver's best game this season, but with no Donald Brown or Ryan Mathews expected in the lineup this weekend, he'll have pretty good success against an Oakland team giving up the second-most rushing yards per game.
Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis: Nineteen touches last week to Trent Richardson's 13, the Colts are finally realizing what fantasy owners have been screaming about for quite some time. He's by far the better back for this offense. Averaging 5.1 yards per carry, expect another 18 touches or so against a Texans team giving up the fourth-most rushing yards this season.
If you're desperate: The return of Knowshon Moreno isn't ideal, of course, but I do believe this team will be able to run effectively, and both backs, especially Lamar Miller, will have flex-worthy numbers with No. 2 running back upside against a Packers team that has given up the most rushing yards in the NFL. ... As you gleaned from the Tom Brady write-up, I expect a tough matchup for New England against Buffalo. However, the Bills are tied for the sixth-most receptions and tied for the fifth-most receiving yards allowed to opposing running backs, making Shane Vereen an interesting flex play this week. ... If ever there was a week to useSteven Jackson, it's this one: at home against Chicago. ... Because I declared last week to beBishop Sankey's coming-out party, you know this will be the week he goes off. Playing Jacksonville this week doesn't hurt. ... More of a "stash" than a "play," but in super-deep leagues, since you can run on Tennessee, Storm Johnson seems to be the most productive of the Jags' running backs, in a very small sample size.

[h=3]Running backs I hate in Week 6[/h]
Matt Asiata, Minnesota: It's only a matter of time, and Asiata's fumble last week didn't help matters. Asiata is averaging 3.7 yards per carry, Jerick McKinnon averages 5.5 yards. Whether McKinnon takes over for a lesser Asiata remains to be seen, but I don't love facing a Lions team giving up the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game this season.
Zac Stacy, St. Louis: Has yet to get more than 12 carries in a game this season and has averaged more than four yards a carry in only one game, against Dallas. Now, he's been part of the pass game more than originally expected, but I still don't totally trust that, especially as he may still be a bit banged up, meaning you could see a little more Cunningham in this game. San Fran gives up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, and it's not like they did it against the Jags. Matt Forte had one point against them. LeSean McCoy had one. Andre Ellington had seven,Jamaal Charles had eight. Only DeMarco Murray, in Week 1, had success, and he needed 25 touches to get to 17 points.
Ronnie Hillman, Denver: Let's keep in mind that so far, the "DEN RB" has not had a lot of success in general. And since entering the league in 2012, Hillman has averaged 3.9 yards per carry, which would put him just ahead of Shonn Greene at 33rd among 42 qualified running backs during that span. There was one run inside an opponent's 10-yard line last week, and that went to Juwan Thompson. For all that is wrong with the Jets, they've allowed the fifth-fewest yards per carry this season. Until we see it for a full game and know for sure Hillman is the guy, I'm not ready to trust it.
[h=3]Wide receivers I love in Week 6:[/h]Golden Tate, Detroit: Three guys. That's it. Three guys have at least five receptions and 50 yards in five straight games this season. Julio Jones. Antonio Brown. And Golden Tate. Dude has 250 receiving yards the last two weeks with Calvin Johnson banged up, and while his decoyness, which is too a word, will be missed, Tate should get plenty of love against a Vikings squad that is tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed to opposing wide receivers.
Rueben Randle and Victor Cruz, New York: Randle currently leads the NFL in red zone targets and has four scores in the two full games he's played against Philly. Cruz has five scores and averages 88 yards a game in the six contests he's played Philly. And, ahem, as you may have heard, the Eagles' secondary has struggled, allowing the most touchdowns and fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season.
Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay: You know who loves him some V-Jax? Mike Glennon loves him some V-Jax. Big numbers with him last year; Jackson is averaging 16 yards per reception with Glennon under center compared with 10.2 in his first three games. Only the Texans have allowed more receptions to opposing wide receivers than the Baltimore Ravens.
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis: Ranking in the top 10 in both receptions and receiving yards among wide receivers, he's been much more of a target monster than you would have thought before the season started. Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, Jeremy Maclin and Antonio Brown are the only guys targeted more this season, and last year, he torched the Texans. Feel he does so again Thursday night.
If you're desperate: Mohamed Sanu just got a lot more interesting with the A.J. Green news, no? Worth noting he averages 8.8 yards after the catch per reception, fourth most among qualified wide receivers. Panthers allowing the seventh-most yards after the catch this season. ... There was a Kendall Wright sighting last week! Very exciting. And now, you know, Jacksonville. ... Feel like we'll see some nice garbage-time production from James Jones this week.
[h=3]Wide receivers I hate in Week 6[/h]Michael Crabtree, San Francisco: His targets, receptions and yards have all decreased each of the past three weeks. That is what we in the business call "trending in the wrong direction." Three games with four fantasy points or fewer, including the past two, consistent usage isn't there and the way you attack the Rams is running the ball, not throwing a lot. With so many weapons for Colin Kaepernick, hard to trust Crabtree as a top-20 guy this week.
Keenan Allen, San Diego: Easily the call that could blow up the loudest in my face, as this is a great matchup for Allen. But so were the Jets last week. And so was Buffalo. He went nuts against Jacksonville, but in four other games this season, he has five points or fewer. Take out the Jags game, and he has fewer targets than Eddie Royal this year and the same as Antonio Gates. They don't scheme for one particular player in San Diego's offense. Philip Rivers just gets the ball to whoever is open, and for whatever reason, the ball isn't consistently getting to Allen. Royal and Malcom Floyd (not to mention Gates) all have more points this year among Chargers pass-catchers, and with Rivers spreading the ball around so much (not to mention they could easily run the ball a lot in the second half), I have Allen outside my top 20.
Eric Decker, New York: Still banged up (was limited in practice on Wednesday), very shaky QB play, and the Broncos definitely don't want to be shown up that they made a mistake in letting him go. Lots of risk here in a week when there are a lot of decent options. Not a top-20 play for me.
[h=3]Tight ends I love in Week 6[/h]
Delanie Walker, Tennessee: Jimmy Graham. That's the only tight end with more receiving yards this year than Delanie Walker. And, you know, Jacksonville.
Jordan Reed, Washington: "I believe in the soul, the small of a woman's back, the hanging curveball, high fiber, good scotch, that the novels of Susan Sontag are self-indulgent, overrated crap. I believe Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing AstroTurf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve, and I believe in long, slow, deep, soft, wet kisses that last three days." I also believe this is the week that Jordan Reed plays the entire game, and I know the Cardinals allow the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Larry Donnell, New York: Feel free to get nervous. I'm apparently all-in on the Giants' offense in this game. Ignore last week's game and realize that even with last week, dude still leads all tight ends with 10 red zone targets.
If you're desperate: As our player card notes, Owen Daniels has seen at least six targets in consecutive games and now gets a Buccaneers defense that's allowed the second-most yards to tight ends. ... With Calvin Johnson not expected to play, I could see Eric Ebron getting some more looks against the Vikings. ... Dwayne Allen is touchdown-dependent, but then again, aren't we all?
[h=3]Tight ends I hate in Week 6[/h]Zach Ertz, Philadelphia: Has the same amount of red zone targets as Brent Celek, which is tied for fourth on the team, and when they are looking his way, he's struggling some, as he's caught just 64 percent of his targets this season, 25th out of 32 qualified tight ends. Not a top-10 play for me this week.
Vernon Davis, San Francisco: Banged up, Davis hasn't seen a red zone target since Week 1, and with this being the Monday night game, hard to start, especially if there's any question he might miss the game.
[h=3]Defenses I love in Week 6[/h]Detroit Lions: Yes, Teddy Bridgewater played well against Atlanta, but he's still a rookie, and the Lions are playing that rare mix of great real defense and great fantasy defense, tied for the third-most fantasy points among defenses.
Denver Broncos: Because, you know, Geno Smith.
Tennessee Titans: Jacksonville has allowed 75 fantasy points to opposing defenses this season, 21 more than the next-closest team.
Cincinnati Bengals: Like the Patriots Sunday night, this week it's the Bengals' turn to be embarrassed and redeem themselves after getting gashed on national TV.
If you're desperate: As noted in the Tom Brady paragraph, the Buffalo Bills always play New England tough, and they are currently a top-five fantasy defense.
[h=3]Defenses I hate in Week 6[/h]Carolina Panthers: If A.J. Green doesn't play, that certainly helps here, but the Panthers have allowed at least 24 points in three straight games, and I don't expect Dalton to gift Carolina with turnovers the way Cutler did. When playing in Cincy, opposing fantasy defenses have averaged just 2.7 points since the start of last season.
St. Louis Rams: They have just one sack, they can't stop the run, so I just don't see how they generate a lot of points in this one, as I expect S.F. to dominate time of possession and just ram it down their throats.
 

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Best, worst matchups for Week 6
The Harris Index: Why Eli, Titans' D could be good plays this week

By Christopher Harris | ESPN Insider

Matchups are often a deciding factor for fantasy owners making lineup decisions between two or more players in their lineups, but gauging the difficulty of each player's matchup can be tricky. That's where The Harris Index come in, our new weekly feature to help you set your lineups.
It is a smarter way to gauge the difficulty of your fantasy players' weekly matchups. It's no longer enough to say, "Team X has given up the most fantasy points to running backs!" After all, what if Team X has played against nothing but Pro Bowl rushers? My index gives you a schedule-independent way to assess how strong opponents really are.
Each week, I'll update the Harris Index and offer a few nuggets about possible starts and sits based on the numbers. You should scroll down and play with the chart, though, sorting by various columns to discover which opponents are best and worst for your players to face.
Finally, please realize that this index is just one tool I use in creating my weekly ranks. To get a sense of which players I think you should start and sit, please consult those rankings.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]Good matchup: Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals
If Palmer can return from his shoulder nerve injury, he appears to have the mother of all great matchups against a Washington defense that's tacking an additional 7.2 fantasy points onto the averages of the QBs they're facing. There's re-injury risk, but it may be a risk worth taking.
<offer></offer>
Good matchup: Eli Manning, New York Giants
Eli also appears to have a sweet matchup against a Philadelphia Eagles defense whose top corner tandem has struggled. In standard ESPN leagues, Manning is currently 10th among fantasy QBs in fantasy points per game, but because of Sunday night's opponent, he deserves to be ranked higher than that this week.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]Running backs[/h]Good matchups: Branden Oliver, San Diego Chargers and Andre Williams, Giants
These two potential spot starters face the Oakland Raiders and Eagles, respectively. We have no guarantee that either rookie will be handed a full workload, but each could reap big rewards playing against two of fantasy's most generous run-stoppers.
Bad matchup: Zac Stacy, St. Louis Rams
Stacy hasn't followed up his great rookie campaign with much production, and Sunday he has to face fantasy's stingiest run defense, the San Francisco 49ers. Though the Rams seem convinced he'll be healthy enough to go Sunday, Stacy is outside my top 20 RBs for the first time all year.
Good matchup: Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals
The once-proud Carolina Panthers run defense has been a shadow of itself in 2014, allowing the past four backfields it has faced to eclipse their fantasy-point averages. Bernard is an obvious every-week start, but Hill may make for a sneaky flex in deeper or TD-heavy leagues.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]Wide receivers[/h]Bad matchup: Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans
It's fair to be concerned about Houston's receiving corps when you see how stingy theIndianapolis Colts have been at allowing fantasy points to opposing wideouts. The Colts look particularly good for having halted Steve Smith's run in Week 5.
Bad matchup: Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys
It would be mighty tough for me to sit Bryant, who is currently fantasy's No. 9 WR on a per-game basis. But the Seattle Seahawks are tough against the pass. DeSean Jackson's big plays meant Monday night was the first time all season that an opposing wideout busted out way above his average against the Hawks. Weekly-leaguers are advised to look elsewhere.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]D/ST[/h]Good matchup: Tennessee Titans D/ST
The Titans haven't been good on defense. In fact, they've scored 5, 1, minus-6 and minus-3 fantasy points in their past four games. But they've got an enticing matchup against aJacksonville Jaguars offense that's tacking 7.2 fantasy points onto the average of the defenses it faces. I admit that using this unit scares me. But fortune favors the bold.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]The Harris Index[/h]Each number presented here reflects how far above or below a player's average a defense holds opponents at each position. Read the index thusly: "Team X currently holds an opposing QB to this many fantasy points above (for a positive number) or below (for a negative number) the QB's average."
[h=3]Harris Index: Week 6[/h]<inline1>
TeamQBRBWRTEDSTWeek 6 Opp.
i
-0.2-3.85.7-1.4-2.1Was
i
-0.38.93.1-4.6-1.4Chi
i
-2.9-7.7-0.2-3.3-3.1@TB
i
-2.5-5.70.0-1.6-1.5NE
i
1.84.61.8-2.00.0@Cin
i
1.60.23.12.20.4@Atl
i
-2.2-1.5-5.43.7-2.5Car
i
2.93.14.2-2.6-3.2Pit
i
-1.0-0.5-4.25.60.8@Sea
i
-1.10.2-2.3-1.2-5.6@NYJ
i
-3.9-1.8-6.01.1-0.1@Min
i
-3.14.0-1.1-0.80.3@Mia
i
-0.50.42.4-1.6-0.3Ind
i
-1.76.0-8.31.2-4.7@Hou
i
2.83.02.43.27.2@Ten
i
-1.2-1.51.7-3.0-1.1BYE
i
-0.33.31.60.21.0GB
i
-2.52.1-0.6-3.14.4Det
i
-1.42.3-4.20.00.1@Buf
i
3.00.91.6-0.1-0.2BYE
i
-0.91.7-3.00.0-0.6@Phi
i
3.6-1.20.82.91.2Den
i
2.14.7-0.61.41.6SD
i
4.64.16.8-3.5-1.7NYG
i
-0.8-0.3-1.61.6-0.4@Cle
i
-1.3-2.8-4.31.2-3.9@Oak
i
-0.8-8.51.7-2.21.2@StL
i
-1.5-6.4-3.80.8-3.1Dal
i
0.3-3.51.30.45.8SF
i
1.21.73.90.66.7Bal
i
-0.9-2.21.10.91.8Jac
i
7.2-4.82.74.11.0@Ari

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</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>
</inline1>

 

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[h=1]Four Downs: Surprise 100-yard rushers
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[/h]By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Eric Karabell[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

It's hardly uncommon to see multiple 100-yard rushers in a given NFL week. [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Houston Texans[/FONT]star [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Arian Foster[/FONT] got things started positively Thursday night in that respect with 109 rushing yards and two touchdowns, and [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Dallas Cowboys[/FONT] star [FONT=verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]DeMarco Murray[/FONT] managed to continue his amazing season in Seattle late Sunday afternoon, but in between there were certainly some new names achieving the feat, including several running backs who were ignored in most fantasy leagues and a quarterback who hadn't done much running at all this season. So let's take a look at the surprising 100-yard rushers, because each one has his own special story, as well as his own upside.

Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers: Well, this is a pleasant surprise! Newton entered the road game against the Cincinnati Bengals -- usually a strong defensive squad -- tied for 23rd among quarterbacks in fantasy points, far from the usual production expected. The problem was Newton wasn't running. He had a good excuse; he was dealing with a rib injury and the aftereffects of offseason ankle surgery. But how can a guy who had run 14 times for 42 yards in four weeks explode for 107 yards on 17 carries, including a touchdown on a read-option play that appeared to be a run all along? Newton entered the week outside my top 10 quarterbacks, but after the second 100-yard rushing performance of his career (Week 13 in 2012 was the other), he's headed right back in now that he's healthy enough to run again. What a terrific harbinger this performance was.

Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals: As good as Bernard was as a rookie last season, he didn't rush for 100 yards in a game. He got close, but the question about Bernard was whether he'd get enough chances to be the type of running back that received 20 touches per game. So far so good, as Bernard's first four games this season resulted in an average of 20 touches per game. On Sunday against the Panthers, Bernard broke off an 89-yard run in the second quarter and finished with 137 rushing yards on 18 carries, plus another four catches for 20 yards. Sure, the pessimist could argue that on his other 17 rushing attempts he ran for only 46 yards, but in a season with so few reliable running backs, this is a top-10 guy for sure. It's worth noting that Bernard did leave the game with a shoulder injury, but he later returned.

Justin Forsett, RB, Baltimore Ravens: While a different Raven threw five touchdown passes before halftime, Forsett is owned in more leagues, was active in three times as many, and he's dominating the time-share. Put simply, Forsett, who broke a 52-yard run early in the embarrassing blowout win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and finished with 111 rushing yards on 14 carries, is more valuable to fantasy owners than Joe Flacco. Forsett boasts double digits in fantasy points three consecutive weeks, at a position in which reliable, consistent outings are rare, while the larger Bernard Pierce, supposedly the team's starter when healthy, continues to disappoint. Pierce rushed 15 times for 32 yards, much of it late in a decided game, though he did score a touchdown. Lorenzo Taliaferro was ignored until even later in the game. Forsett continues to be the Ravens' running back to own and the team's No. 2 fantasy option after wide receiver Steve Smith.

Ronnie Hillman, RB, Denver Broncos: We can probably dismiss the notion of the New York Jets being so tough against the run at this point. Last week San Diego Chargers rookie Branden Oliver pilfered the defense. On Sunday Hillman rushed 24 times for 100 yards, doing something injured starter Montee Ball didn't come close to achieving when he was healthy. Perhaps it wasn't the team's offensive line or the tough schedule holding Ball back after all, but he's just not a future star. Ball figures to miss the rest of the month with a groin injury, but perhaps Hillman, who was also on the field for goal-line carries Sunday, simply keeps the job. He needs to be owned in all leagues and regarded as a borderline RB2 at this point.

Branden Oliver, RB, San Diego Chargers: The matchup in Oakland was pretty sweet, and Oliver again handled a hefty workload, getting 30 touches and turning them into 124 yards and 18 fantasy points. A week earlier in relief of Donald Brown he earned 29 fantasy points. Oliver is the most added player in ESPN standard leagues but still available in roughly 30 percent. It's starting to look like Ryan Mathews will be backing up Oliver upon his return, which certainly wouldn't need to be rushed.

Second down: As for Baltimore's Flacco, who exploded with five touchdown passes a mere 16:03 into the game Sunday -- the old record was Ben Roethlisberger throwing for five scores 28:09 into a 2007 game -- we congratulate the 13.5 percent of ESPN standard owners who had him active. But don't expect more big games like that. In Week 5, Flacco, owned in roughly a third of ESPN leagues, was held to seven fantasy points in a quiet loss to the Indianapolis Colts, and he has never finished a season as a top-10 fantasy quarterback. While he's a reasonable play in Week 7 against another deficient pass defense (the Atlanta Falcons'), this isn't likely to be Flacco's statistical coming-out party. Sell high on Flacco, and also don't expect continued success from wide receiver Torrey Smith. It was nice that Smith scored two touchdowns after the coaching staff promised he'd become more popular, and it matched his total from his preceding 10 contests, but he's still playing a deep second fiddle to colleague Steve Smith, who had more than twice as many receiving yards Sunday and his fourth touchdown and 100-yard performance.

Third down: Quite a few fantasy owners were paying attention to how theDetroit Lions would look sans awesome wide receiver Calvin Johnson and perceived starting running back Reggie Bush. The Lions responded with a muted offensive effort, beating the Minnesota Vikings 17-3. Running back Joique Bell, recovered from a concussion, had his best game of the season with 15 fantasy points, rushing 18 times for 74 yards and a touchdown, while No. 3 running back Theo Riddick caught a 41-yarder and a red zone touchdown. What happens to Bush when he returns from his ankle injury in Week 7? He already has announced he'll be back, but fantasy owners shouldn't get too excited. This appears to be a three-man time-share in which nobody really wins, but if I had to choose one Detroit running back, I'd take Bell. As for quarterback Matthew Stafford, he has scored a mere 11 fantasy points in consecutive games, clearly missing his top option. Pending games the next fortnight against the New Orleans Saints (at home) and Falcons keep him among the top 10, but otherwise, with Johnson's injury timetable being problematic, he'd probably leave the top 10 quarterbacks. Stafford completed just one pass more than 10 yards downfield Sunday, and according to ESPN Stats and Info, he's 5-of-18 on such throws this season when Johnson is not on the field. Basically, Johnson's health is directly tied to Stafford's value.

Fourth down: Many eyes in deeper leagues were tuned to the otherwise forgettableTennessee Titans-Jacksonville Jaguars clash, as rookie running backs Bishop Sankey and Storm Johnson were awarded starting assignments with starters Shonn Greene and Toby Gerhartdeemed inactive. Hey, any starting running back is worth a glance even in standard formats, and Sankey was the first rookie running back chosen in both the NFL draft and ESPN average live drafts, though impatient owners have since made him available in more than 10 percent of leagues. Sankey started slowly Sunday, but broke a 22-yard run in the second half and finished with 68 total yards on 19 touches. Frankly, more was expected. A goal-line carry was vultured by veteran Jackie Battle -- yeah, he's still in the league -- and while it's reasonable to expect Sankey to continue seeing touches even when Greene returns, it's tough to call him a flex option at this point. Still, you should add him if he's available. Better things are likely pending.

Meanwhile, Johnson cashed in an early touchdown but saw little room to run, gaining 21 yards on his 10 carries, pretty much in line with Gerhart's prior struggles. Johnson doesn't need to be one of the top free-agent additions of the week at running back. Hillman, Cleveland Brownsbackup Isaiah Crowell and New England Patriots rookie James White -- watch him get opportunities Thursday night against the Jets with Stevan Ridley out -- are better gambles.
 

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