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The Unofficial Scorer
Sorting through the numbers with Zachary Levine
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July 24, 2007
If Ryne Sandberg's a Hall-of-Famer...
Craig Biggio is a Hall-of-Famer.
Putting that aside for a second, here are five reasons the devil's advocate can say that he shouldn't get in:
1. He never seemed to be the best player on his team.*
2. He never finished in the top three in the MVP voting.
3. He is a career .282 hitter.**
4. He performed poorly in the playoffs.***
5. He fails the "I'd drop everything and watch him" test for Hall status.
Now, here are all the reasons you need as to why he should get in.
1. Ryne Sandberg got in.
What? That's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. Sandberg won nine gold gloves and was one of the best fielders ever to play the position. Biggio won four. Sandberg made 10 All-Star games. Biggio made seven.****
It's really not that ridiculous when you look at the numbers for the two second basemen.
Biggio, now that he's announced his retirement, will have to wait until the vote in 2013 to cement his place in the Hall. But when Ryno accepted his plaque in 2005, he may as well have been accepting Biggio's as well.
Consider Win Shares, the statistical baby of Bill James and what I consider to be the defining statistic of a game in which the goal is not to hit .300 or dip your ERA under 3, but to leave the field with a win.
Basically, it is a measure of thirds of wins contributed to a team using one of the most complicated formulas known to man. For instance, if you replaced a team with a 40-win-share player (MVP level) with a 10-win-share player (marginal level) that team would win an average of (40-10)/3 = 10 fewer games.
Position players receive hitting win shares and fielding win shares, found in James' book up to 2001 and then
here and
here and
here. Those hitting and fielding marks are added to get a total. Again, 700 pages on my bookshelf, but a pretty simple concept.
So who has more fielding win shares?
Sandberg, obviously.
Wrong. Biggio, by an approximate margin of 100.7 to 93.4.
Note, I'm not counting Win Shares per 1,000 innings or anything like that, because longevity is a huge part of one's resume.
Biggio has 431 career Win Shares, 33rd on the all-time list. The guys at 31 and 32 are in, Jimmie Foxx and George Brett. The guy at 34 will be in this weekend, Cal Ripken Jr.
In fact, from No. 1 to No. 45, everybody who's been retired the requisite number of years and whose name doesn't rhyme with "I never bet on baseball," is in the Hall of Fame.
Ryno has 346 Win Shares, one fewer than Dwight Evans.
Even though we shouldn't, let's be generous to Sandberg and water down Biggio's career to Ryno's 8,385 at-bats from his 10,699 entering Tuesday's dramatic display.
Sandberg, who hit three points higher in his career, will obviously have more hits, 2,386-2,362. Biggio, who had an OPS three points higher, will still have 144 more walks and 189 more HBPs. Plus he'll have the underappreciated edge of hitting into 22 fewer double plays, which is ignored in OPS.
So Biggio will be on base on his own merit 331 more times over a career as long as Sandberg's or 422 more times in a career as long, to this point, as Biggio's.
That's almost one a week, and if you don't believe me that that's a lot, one hit a week is the difference between a .260 hitter and a .300 hitter.
Ignore Biggio's 3,014 hits, 24th all-time (everyone eligible from 1-44 on that list is in, stopping with Andre Dawson at 2,774). Ignore the 661 doubles, sixth all-time (everyone eligible from 1-28 is in). Ignore the hit-by-pitch record (most of you probably would anyway).
If we are going to make this a statistical argument, and that's what we do here, just look at his numbers compared to Sandberg's. Look at his defensive consistency and longevity which have produced more fielding Win Shares. If you're more into wins than win shares, look at his .521 winning percentage when he starts, compared to Ryno's .488. And look at all the little things that Biggio did, getting hit by pitches, walking and staying out of double plays, compared to Sandberg, to get on base.
Once Sandberg got in, Biggio should have had his ticket punched.
It's recently been repeated concerning the 500 home run club that there's going to be, eventually, the pioneer who is the first one not in the Hall of Fame. Does the same have to be true of the 3,000 hit club? Probably not; one look at who's coming up the pipe in those two clubs tells you that the latter is going to retain its exclusivity.
But even if you do have to "make the example" out of someone in the 3,000-hit club, it should not be Biggio, given everything else he's accomplished beyond 3,000 hits and given the way he approaches the game. But I'll let Richard and company vouch for him beyond the numbers.
If you're going to close the door on a member of the 3,000 club, let it be Rafael Palmeiro.
*Go find Pete Rose, Joe Morgan, Tony Perez and Johnny Bench and tell that to three of the four of them.
**Fellow second basemen Johnny Evers, Joe Morgan and Bill Mazeroski, among others, would have needed a few balls, or a hundred, to bounce their way to get up to .282. Roy Campanella, Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk, Eddie Mathews, Gary Carter, Tony Perez, Cal Ripken, Jr., Michael Jack Schmidt, Brooks Robinson, Mr. Cub, Luis Aparicio, Pee Wee Reese, Harmon Killebrew, Phil Rizzuto, Ralph Kiner and Reggie Jackson may also have a bit of a problem with that.
***How'd Ernie Banks do in the playoffs?
****Barry Larkin made 12.