Consensus numbers across the board

[letsgohoosiers]

wed and thur they were plays at -300.....thats what I was refering to

Yes, whenever the system tells me to bet on the favorite, I take them RL.

I know Toronto is not about to screw me over.

 

[roc18]

Toronto is about to fuck me in the ass after having an 8 run lead

 

[ionicking]

Did anything happen yet in the 9th?

 

[roc18]

Carlos Pena homered

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Yup, Toronto just blew it. 9-9.

Start looking at the 4:00 games.

 

[roc18]

4:00 games
Cleveland (39-58) at Seattle (51-45) Seattle

Minnesota (48-49) at LA Angels (57-38) Minnesota

Chi. White Sox (50-47) at Detroit (51-44) Chi. White Sox

 

[roc18]

Minnesota fell out as a play but I already had it locked in

 

[ionicking]

And St Louis became a play 4 minutes after all lines closed!

 

[letsgohoosiers]

And St Louis became a play 4 minutes after all lines closed!

Game is still up at Bookmaker if you want to bet - they pull lines very late.

 

[ionicking]

Good to know for the future. Thanks

 

[ray]

I can't believe what's going on in Toronto, utter crap.

The team went home and forgot the game isn't over.

 

[roc18]

this is a really gay day so far, Toronto blows the game Seattle is down by 8 and I accidentally played minnesota because the line changed at the last minuite to make it a no play.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Wanted to do research Re:RL on favorites.

Under SportsDatabase, there have been 14249 favorites since 2004. Sorting by margin, there have been 2212 games where the favorite won by 1 run. That's 15.52%.

Now, look at the run lines on the board:

HOU -130 -> +161
MIL -131 -> +166
WAS -103 -> +193
BOS -220 -> -110
KC -108 -> +185
ARI -132 -> +157
COL -175 -> +120
LOS -169 -> +127

Our average lay changes from -146 to +149. The -146 is calculated by SportsDatabase, simply typing in the value of F and getting the average odds for favorites over the past 5 years.

The +149 is calculated by taking the average of all the differences on the board (295) and adding that to the -146. The long term the number may be different, this is a very small sample.

Now, say we break-even on favorites, hitting at a 146-100 record. Lets now take into account what would happen playing the run line:

246 total games X .1552 (1 run win %) = 38 winners changed to losses.

New record: 108-138. 108*149 + 138*-100 = +$2292

Math may be wrong since I don't have an exact value for RL.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

this is a really gay day so far, Toronto blows the game Seattle is down by 8 and I accidentally played minnesota because the line changed at the last minuite to make it a no play.

Seattle hasn't been too good to us the past few days.

I'm looking at 2-2 and up a bit right now. Played STL, CWS, TOR -1.5 and SEA -1.5.

I guess I'll take it knowing that I'll win more later.

 

[ionicking]

St. Louis probably just lost the game..

 

[letsgohoosiers]

St. Louis probably just lost the game..

Yup. I keep jinxing myself, LOL.

 

[ray]

hey hoosiers, do you still use line reading 101 for plays?

 

[LetsGetPaid]

Lookin like KC will be the only play for the 7:00 games

 

[roc18]

Houston is also a play

 

[ray]

Fading the system for today it's looking 0 - 4, Tigers just tied it up. Using line reading 101 for plays tonight.