yes away team does cover RL more offten. Dont quote me but I want to say its about 2-5% more often historically.
another senerio is tie game into the btm 9th....only way 2 cover RL is HR with runers on vs so many other ways to score one run......dont want to sound elementry with this as I know you know whats up, just trying to show how the odds are better for the away team to cover RL
LGH.....you got any numbers or opioins here
another senerio is tie game into the btm 9th....only way 2 cover RL is HR with runers on vs so many other ways to score one run......dont want to sound elementry with this as I know you know whats up, just trying to show how the odds are better for the away team to cover RL
LGH.....you got any numbers or opioins here
Alright, there is a file attached, I worked on this for about half an hour so I thought I would post it. Lots of numbers to be entered.
What I did was go back and pick a random week to test this to. I chose week 1 of the season, I'll keep trying to get a week in the next few days to develop a database.
What current "system" (if you want to call it that) tracks is FADING all games where the MAX DIFF is less than or equal to 5. Week 1 that went 15-14, however up $368 because you are taking all dogs ($100/unit).
There are other very noticeable trends. Sort by "MAX DIFF". When BOTH The Greek AND Bookmaker have a line that is .10 worse than the Pinnacle line (MAX DIFF<-10), the record is 8-2 (keep in mind low number of plays because we've got 1 week of data).
Similarly, look at SUM DIFF. This is the sum of the two differences in the lines. When there is a .25 difference between the two lines, the record is 9-1.
Sheet is attached, play around and find trends, I'll try to get a new week up every day (No promises - I have a job you know
).
What I did was go back and pick a random week to test this to. I chose week 1 of the season, I'll keep trying to get a week in the next few days to develop a database.
What current "system" (if you want to call it that) tracks is FADING all games where the MAX DIFF is less than or equal to 5. Week 1 that went 15-14, however up $368 because you are taking all dogs ($100/unit).
There are other very noticeable trends. Sort by "MAX DIFF". When BOTH The Greek AND Bookmaker have a line that is .10 worse than the Pinnacle line (MAX DIFF<-10), the record is 8-2 (keep in mind low number of plays because we've got 1 week of data).
Similarly, look at SUM DIFF. This is the sum of the two differences in the lines. When there is a .25 difference between the two lines, the record is 9-1.
Sheet is attached, play around and find trends, I'll try to get a new week up every day (No promises - I have a job you know
).
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Alright, there is a file attached, I worked on this for about half an hour so I thought I would post it. Lots of numbers to be entered.
What I did was go back and pick a random week to test this to. I chose week 1 of the season, I'll keep trying to get a week in the next few days to develop a database.
What current "system" (if you want to call it that) tracks is FADING all games where the MAX DIFF is less than or equal to 5. Week 1 that went 15-14, however up $368 because you are taking all dogs ($100/unit).
There are other very noticeable trends. Sort by "MAX DIFF". When BOTH The Greek AND Bookmaker have a line that is .10 worse than the Pinnacle line (MAX DIFF<-10), the record is 8-2 (keep in mind low number of plays because we've got 1 week of data).
Similarly, look at SUM DIFF. This is the sum of the two differences in the lines. When there is a .25 difference between the two lines, the record is 9-1.
Sheet is attached, play around and find trends, I'll try to get a new week up every day (No promises - I have a job you know
Week 2 added - trends strengthening.
Sort by "GRK DIFF" smallest to largest. Our maximum profit is at -7 or less, meaning any time The Greek has a line that is 7 points or worse than Pinnacle's line, that team is profitable. The record is 86-69 +2701 for the first 2 weeks.
Now sort by "BKR DIFF" smallest to largest. Our maximum profit is at -16 or less, meaning anytime Bookmaker has a line that is 16 points worse than Pinnacle's line, that team is profitable. The record is 13-5 +615 for the first 2 weeks.
Now let's combine the books. Sort by "SUM DIFF" smallest to largest. Our maximum profit is at -17 or less, with a record of 56-40 +1649.
Lots of interesting stuff - I'll try to continue to add data daily.
BTW if anyone was confused about the last spreadsheet - was doodling on other pages so that's what was coming up, LOL.
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In all of these you are playing dogs? i.e SDG/WAS fits .10 diff so play would be SDG? ThanksAlright, there is a file attached, I worked on this for about half an hour so I thought I would post it. Lots of numbers to be entered.
What I did was go back and pick a random week to test this to. I chose week 1 of the season, I'll keep trying to get a week in the next few days to develop a database.
What current "system" (if you want to call it that) tracks is FADING all games where the MAX DIFF is less than or equal to 5. Week 1 that went 15-14, however up $368 because you are taking all dogs ($100/unit).
There are other very noticeable trends. Sort by "MAX DIFF". When BOTH The Greek AND Bookmaker have a line that is .10 worse than the Pinnacle line (MAX DIFF<-10), the record is 8-2 (keep in mind low number of plays because we've got 1 week of data).
Similarly, look at SUM DIFF. This is the sum of the two differences in the lines. When there is a .25 difference between the two lines, the record is 9-1.
Sheet is attached, play around and find trends, I'll try to get a new week up every day (No promises - I have a job you know
LGH,
Thanks for the spreadsheet, this looks promising. I have noticed that there's about a 2-3 minute lag time between line changes so when you back track this could invalidate much of this.
This is what I have seen:
Bookmaker makes a line change on SBR and the time reads 7:04pm on the listing of line changes. However, it was really 7:07 and past the time you could actually get down on the game because it started at 7:05pm. Does this make sense?
I believe using the closest line change 4 minutes before tip/kickoff is probably most reliable and accurate.
Has anyone else noticed this line change issue?
Keep up the great work LGH and thanks for introducing this to the forum!
FH
Thanks for the spreadsheet, this looks promising. I have noticed that there's about a 2-3 minute lag time between line changes so when you back track this could invalidate much of this.
This is what I have seen:
Bookmaker makes a line change on SBR and the time reads 7:04pm on the listing of line changes. However, it was really 7:07 and past the time you could actually get down on the game because it started at 7:05pm. Does this make sense?
I believe using the closest line change 4 minutes before tip/kickoff is probably most reliable and accurate.
Has anyone else noticed this line change issue?
Keep up the great work LGH and thanks for introducing this to the forum!
FH
4 horsemen,
I feel you. I have noticed the same with non plays becoming plays, and plays becoming non plays but after the 1st pitch. Some games you can see the line stays firm, but its those other lines that are are moving that need to be watched closer inorder to TRY and make the right read.....
LGH,,,,,good job on the spread sheet, been studying it this morning. if u got a min, can you give us a real time exp of SUMDIFF ect......thanks 4 sharing
I feel you. I have noticed the same with non plays becoming plays, and plays becoming non plays but after the 1st pitch. Some games you can see the line stays firm, but its those other lines that are are moving that need to be watched closer inorder to TRY and make the right read.....
LGH,,,,,good job on the spread sheet, been studying it this morning. if u got a min, can you give us a real time exp of SUMDIFF ect......thanks 4 sharing
