NFL OPINIONS AND BEST BETS
09/17/22..................17-8-1.................67.31%................+41.00
09/11/22..................14-14-0...............50.00%..................- 7.00
09/08/22....................1-1-0.................50.00%..................- 0.50
TOTALS................32-23-1................58.18%.................+33.50
************************************************** *****************
BEST BETS
09/17/22.................12-4-0.................75.00%...............+38.00
09/11/22.................11-7-0..................61.11%..............+ 16.50
09/08/22..................1-1-0..................50.00%.................- 0.50
TOTALS..............24-12.0..................66.00%...............+ 54.00
09/17/22..................17-8-1.................67.31%................+41.00
09/11/22..................14-14-0...............50.00%..................- 7.00
09/08/22....................1-1-0.................50.00%..................- 0.50
TOTALS................32-23-1................58.18%.................+33.50
************************************************** *****************
BEST BETS
09/17/22.................12-4-0.................75.00%...............+38.00
09/11/22.................11-7-0..................61.11%..............+ 16.50
09/08/22..................1-1-0..................50.00%.................- 0.50
TOTALS..............24-12.0..................66.00%...............+ 54.00
Armadillo Sports
Monday’s 6-pack
NFL leaders in receiving yards
284— Tyreek Hill, Miami
240— Jaylen Waddle, Miami
236— Cooper Kupp, Rams
195— Christian Kirk, Jaguars
194— Courtland Sutton, Broncos
184— Justin Jefferson, Vikings (1 game)
****************************
Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……
Dolphins 42, Ravens 38:
— Ravens led 35-14 after the third quarter.
— Miami scored 28 points in 4th quarter for first time ever.
— Dolphins won game on 7-yard TD pass with 0:14 left.
— Tagovailoa threw for 469 yards and six TD’s.
— Hill caught 11 balls for 190 yards, Waddle 11 for 171.
— Ravens ran opening kick of game back for a TD.
— Jackson ran 79 yards for a TD, threw a 75-yard TD pass.
— Both teams had six plays each of 20+ yards.
— Ravens in first half: 31 plays, 295 yards, 16 first downs, 21 points.
— Ravens in second half: 24 plays, 199 yards, 7 first downs, 10 points.
Jets 31, Browns 30:
— Jets scored two TD’s in last 1:22 to pull off an amazing comeback.
— Jets recovered an onside kick that set up the winning TD.
— According to ESPN Stats, teams had won 2,229 consecutive games when leading by 13+ points in the final 2:00.
— 37-year old Flacco threw for 307 yards and four TD’s.
— Cleveland scored 57 points in first two games, but this is a horrendous loss.
— Browns ran for 184 yards here, 401 yards in two games.
— Jets won seven of last nine series games.
— Jets were 8-15 on third down, Cleveland 8-12.
— Since 2005, Browns are 5-13 ATS in home openers
— Since 1999, Browns are 0-9 ATS as a favorite in home openers.
Lions 36, Commanders 27:
— Washington in 1st half: 26 plays, 39 yards, 2 first downs, no points.
— Washington in 2nd half: 45 plays, 340 yards, 19 first downs, 27 points.
— Wentz threw for 337 yards, much of it in garbage time.
— Detroit won six of last seven series games.
— Commanders scored 55 points in their first two games (1-1).
— Detroit led this game 22-0 at halftime.
— St Brown caught nine passes for 116 yards, two TD’s.
— Lions have scored 9 TD’s on their first 23 drives this year.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 4-15-1 SU, 13-6 ATS.
— Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 home games.
Jaguars 24, Colts 0
— Colts lost last eight visits to Jacksonville; they were favored in 6 of 8.
— Indy has been outscored 27-3 in first half this year.
— Colts were 2-10 on 3rd down, had only nine first downs.
— Ryan threw three INT’s, went scoreless in two trips to red zone.
— In two games, they’ve scored 17 points in seven trips to red zone.
— Jaguars outgained Colts 331-218.
— Jacksonville scored two TD’s, FG on their first four drives.
— Home side won last eight series games.
— Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
Buccaneers 20, Saints 10:
— Game was 3-3 after three quarters.
— Tampa Bay has allowed one TD on 24 drives in two games.
— Tampa Bay has scored two TD’s on 21 drives in two games.
— Bucs scored on a pick-6 with 4:11 left.
— Tampa Bay won field position by 12 yards.
— With Brady at QB, Bucs are 4-0 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— New Orleans turned ball over five times (minus-4)
— QB Winston was sacked six times, in addition to the turnovers.
— According to Jay Glazer on TV, Winston is playing with four fractures in his back.
— Saints are 1-7 ATS in last eight home openers.
— New Orleans had only one play of 20+ yards.
Giants 19, Panthers 16:
— Carolina lost first two games, by 2-3 points.
— Panthers gained 261-275 yards in their first two games.
— Carolina converted only 2-12 third down plays in this game.
— Panthers fumbled away opening kick, then fumbled again on first series.
— Last 3+ years, Carolina is 15-36 SU.
— Giants won first two games, by 1-3 points.
— Giants scored only 6 first half points in two games.
— Big Blue has converted only 8-28 third down plays.
— Giants are 2-0 for first time since 2016.
— Under is 9-0 in their last nine home openers.
Patriots (0-1) @ Steelers (1-0)
— Patriots outgained Pittsburgh, 376-243.
— New England converted 9-17 third down plays.
— New England scored 7-17 points in its first two games.
— Last 6+ years, under is 33-16-1 in their road games.
— New England won six of last seven series games.
— Steelers gained 267-243 yards in first two games.
— Pitt had a 16-play drive that took 7:07, but gained only 48 yards and a FG.
— Steelers averaged only 4.2 yards per pass attempt.
— Steelers are 0-5 ATS in last five games as home underdogs.
Rams 31, Falcons 27:
— Falcons first drive: 13 plays, 8:06 off clock, missed FG.
— Atlanta blocked punt for TD with 4:57 left to get within 31-25.
— Ramsey picked off Mariota in red zone with 1:07 left to preserve the win.
— Falcons converted 3-10 on third down, Rams 6-10.
— Last 2+ years, Falcons are 9-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— Rams scored TD’s on four of their first five drives.
— They also turned ball over three times, had punt blocked for TD.
— Kupp caught 11 balls for 108 yards, despite no targets in first quarter.
— Rams outgained Atlanta, 337-261.
— Buffalo was 9-10 on 3rd down LW; Falcons were only 3-10.
Seahawks (1-0) @ 49ers (0-1)
— Seattle’s only TD was an 86-yard return of a blocked field goal.
— Seahawks were outgained 373-216, running for 36 yards.
— In two games, Seattle ran 37 second half plays for 110 yards.
— Geno Smith is 14-22 as an NFL starter.
— Seahawks had only one play of 20+ yards.
— QB Lance broke his ankle early, is out for the year.
— Garoppolo threw for 154 yards and a TD.
— 49ers won field position by ten yards.
— In first two games, 49ers ran for 176-139 yards
— Before this game, 49ers had lost 15 of last 17 series games.
Cowboys 20, Bengals 17:
— Bengals’ only TD of day tied game 17-17 with 3:45 left.
— Cincinnati had only one play of 20+ yards.
— Burrow got sacked six times (13 times in two games)
— Dallas outgained the Bengals, 337-254.
— Maher kicked a 50-yard FG at the gun for the walk-off win.
— Maher also kicked a 54-yard FG at end of the first half.
— Dallas was 3-10 on third down, Bengals 6-17.
— Last 4+ years, Dallas is 7-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— QB Rush is now 2-0 as an NFL starter, winning 20-16 at Minnesota LY.
Broncos 16, Texans 9:
— Game was 6-6 at halftime.
— Houston has been outgained 867-533 in two games.
— Texans are 0-1-1 SU, but covered both games.
— Since 2016, under is 22-15-3 in their road games.
— 2nd-year QB Mills is 2-10-1 as an NFL starter
— Denver’s only TD was the game-winner with 12:37 left.
— Wilson completed only 6-17 passes in first half.
— Denver converted 3-12 on third down, Houston 2-13.
— Broncos outgained first two foes, 783-487.
— Since 2017, Denver is 6-13-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Cardinals 29, Raiders 23 OT
— Arizona tied game on a Murray run/2-point pass with 0:00 left.
— Arizona won game on a 59-yard fumble return in OT
— Cardinals in first half: 19 plays, 71 yards, no points.
— Cardinals in 2nd half/OT: 59 plays, 325 yards, 23 points.
— Fumble return TD was the longest one in OT in NFL history.
— Raiders in first half: 40 plays, 236 yards, 20 points.
— Raiders in 2nd half/OT: 24 plays, 115 yards, 3 points.
— Las Vegas converted 6-11 on third down, Arizona 3-13.
— Last five years, Raiders are 7-13-2 ATS vs NFC teams.
— Derek Carr is 57-73 as an NFL starter.
Packers 27, Bears 10:
— Bears drove 71 yards for a TD on their first drive.
— Rest of game: 35 plays, 142 yards, 7 first downs, 3 points.
— Last 3+ years, Chicago is 7-12 ATS as a road underdog.
— How does a team lose 27-10 and throw only 11 passes?
— Bears were outgained 745-432 in their first two games.
— 2nd-year QB Fields is 3-9 as an NFL starter.
— Rodgers is now 24-5 in his career against Chicago.
— Bears are 1-6 ATS in last six visits to Lambeau Field.
— Green Bay scored 3 TD’s and FG on first five drives.
— Last 3+ years, Packers are 17-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last 3+ years, Green Bay is 10-0 ATS off a SU loss.
Monday’s 6-pack
NFL leaders in receiving yards
284— Tyreek Hill, Miami
240— Jaylen Waddle, Miami
236— Cooper Kupp, Rams
195— Christian Kirk, Jaguars
194— Courtland Sutton, Broncos
184— Justin Jefferson, Vikings (1 game)
****************************
Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……
Dolphins 42, Ravens 38:
— Ravens led 35-14 after the third quarter.
— Miami scored 28 points in 4th quarter for first time ever.
— Dolphins won game on 7-yard TD pass with 0:14 left.
— Tagovailoa threw for 469 yards and six TD’s.
— Hill caught 11 balls for 190 yards, Waddle 11 for 171.
— Ravens ran opening kick of game back for a TD.
— Jackson ran 79 yards for a TD, threw a 75-yard TD pass.
— Both teams had six plays each of 20+ yards.
— Ravens in first half: 31 plays, 295 yards, 16 first downs, 21 points.
— Ravens in second half: 24 plays, 199 yards, 7 first downs, 10 points.
Jets 31, Browns 30:
— Jets scored two TD’s in last 1:22 to pull off an amazing comeback.
— Jets recovered an onside kick that set up the winning TD.
— According to ESPN Stats, teams had won 2,229 consecutive games when leading by 13+ points in the final 2:00.
— 37-year old Flacco threw for 307 yards and four TD’s.
— Cleveland scored 57 points in first two games, but this is a horrendous loss.
— Browns ran for 184 yards here, 401 yards in two games.
— Jets won seven of last nine series games.
— Jets were 8-15 on third down, Cleveland 8-12.
— Since 2005, Browns are 5-13 ATS in home openers
— Since 1999, Browns are 0-9 ATS as a favorite in home openers.
Lions 36, Commanders 27:
— Washington in 1st half: 26 plays, 39 yards, 2 first downs, no points.
— Washington in 2nd half: 45 plays, 340 yards, 19 first downs, 27 points.
— Wentz threw for 337 yards, much of it in garbage time.
— Detroit won six of last seven series games.
— Commanders scored 55 points in their first two games (1-1).
— Detroit led this game 22-0 at halftime.
— St Brown caught nine passes for 116 yards, two TD’s.
— Lions have scored 9 TD’s on their first 23 drives this year.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 4-15-1 SU, 13-6 ATS.
— Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 home games.
Jaguars 24, Colts 0
— Colts lost last eight visits to Jacksonville; they were favored in 6 of 8.
— Indy has been outscored 27-3 in first half this year.
— Colts were 2-10 on 3rd down, had only nine first downs.
— Ryan threw three INT’s, went scoreless in two trips to red zone.
— In two games, they’ve scored 17 points in seven trips to red zone.
— Jaguars outgained Colts 331-218.
— Jacksonville scored two TD’s, FG on their first four drives.
— Home side won last eight series games.
— Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
Buccaneers 20, Saints 10:
— Game was 3-3 after three quarters.
— Tampa Bay has allowed one TD on 24 drives in two games.
— Tampa Bay has scored two TD’s on 21 drives in two games.
— Bucs scored on a pick-6 with 4:11 left.
— Tampa Bay won field position by 12 yards.
— With Brady at QB, Bucs are 4-0 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— New Orleans turned ball over five times (minus-4)
— QB Winston was sacked six times, in addition to the turnovers.
— According to Jay Glazer on TV, Winston is playing with four fractures in his back.
— Saints are 1-7 ATS in last eight home openers.
— New Orleans had only one play of 20+ yards.
Giants 19, Panthers 16:
— Carolina lost first two games, by 2-3 points.
— Panthers gained 261-275 yards in their first two games.
— Carolina converted only 2-12 third down plays in this game.
— Panthers fumbled away opening kick, then fumbled again on first series.
— Last 3+ years, Carolina is 15-36 SU.
— Giants won first two games, by 1-3 points.
— Giants scored only 6 first half points in two games.
— Big Blue has converted only 8-28 third down plays.
— Giants are 2-0 for first time since 2016.
— Under is 9-0 in their last nine home openers.
Patriots (0-1) @ Steelers (1-0)
— Patriots outgained Pittsburgh, 376-243.
— New England converted 9-17 third down plays.
— New England scored 7-17 points in its first two games.
— Last 6+ years, under is 33-16-1 in their road games.
— New England won six of last seven series games.
— Steelers gained 267-243 yards in first two games.
— Pitt had a 16-play drive that took 7:07, but gained only 48 yards and a FG.
— Steelers averaged only 4.2 yards per pass attempt.
— Steelers are 0-5 ATS in last five games as home underdogs.
Rams 31, Falcons 27:
— Falcons first drive: 13 plays, 8:06 off clock, missed FG.
— Atlanta blocked punt for TD with 4:57 left to get within 31-25.
— Ramsey picked off Mariota in red zone with 1:07 left to preserve the win.
— Falcons converted 3-10 on third down, Rams 6-10.
— Last 2+ years, Falcons are 9-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— Rams scored TD’s on four of their first five drives.
— They also turned ball over three times, had punt blocked for TD.
— Kupp caught 11 balls for 108 yards, despite no targets in first quarter.
— Rams outgained Atlanta, 337-261.
— Buffalo was 9-10 on 3rd down LW; Falcons were only 3-10.
Seahawks (1-0) @ 49ers (0-1)
— Seattle’s only TD was an 86-yard return of a blocked field goal.
— Seahawks were outgained 373-216, running for 36 yards.
— In two games, Seattle ran 37 second half plays for 110 yards.
— Geno Smith is 14-22 as an NFL starter.
— Seahawks had only one play of 20+ yards.
— QB Lance broke his ankle early, is out for the year.
— Garoppolo threw for 154 yards and a TD.
— 49ers won field position by ten yards.
— In first two games, 49ers ran for 176-139 yards
— Before this game, 49ers had lost 15 of last 17 series games.
Cowboys 20, Bengals 17:
— Bengals’ only TD of day tied game 17-17 with 3:45 left.
— Cincinnati had only one play of 20+ yards.
— Burrow got sacked six times (13 times in two games)
— Dallas outgained the Bengals, 337-254.
— Maher kicked a 50-yard FG at the gun for the walk-off win.
— Maher also kicked a 54-yard FG at end of the first half.
— Dallas was 3-10 on third down, Bengals 6-17.
— Last 4+ years, Dallas is 7-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— QB Rush is now 2-0 as an NFL starter, winning 20-16 at Minnesota LY.
Broncos 16, Texans 9:
— Game was 6-6 at halftime.
— Houston has been outgained 867-533 in two games.
— Texans are 0-1-1 SU, but covered both games.
— Since 2016, under is 22-15-3 in their road games.
— 2nd-year QB Mills is 2-10-1 as an NFL starter
— Denver’s only TD was the game-winner with 12:37 left.
— Wilson completed only 6-17 passes in first half.
— Denver converted 3-12 on third down, Houston 2-13.
— Broncos outgained first two foes, 783-487.
— Since 2017, Denver is 6-13-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Cardinals 29, Raiders 23 OT
— Arizona tied game on a Murray run/2-point pass with 0:00 left.
— Arizona won game on a 59-yard fumble return in OT
— Cardinals in first half: 19 plays, 71 yards, no points.
— Cardinals in 2nd half/OT: 59 plays, 325 yards, 23 points.
— Fumble return TD was the longest one in OT in NFL history.
— Raiders in first half: 40 plays, 236 yards, 20 points.
— Raiders in 2nd half/OT: 24 plays, 115 yards, 3 points.
— Las Vegas converted 6-11 on third down, Arizona 3-13.
— Last five years, Raiders are 7-13-2 ATS vs NFC teams.
— Derek Carr is 57-73 as an NFL starter.
Packers 27, Bears 10:
— Bears drove 71 yards for a TD on their first drive.
— Rest of game: 35 plays, 142 yards, 7 first downs, 3 points.
— Last 3+ years, Chicago is 7-12 ATS as a road underdog.
— How does a team lose 27-10 and throw only 11 passes?
— Bears were outgained 745-432 in their first two games.
— 2nd-year QB Fields is 3-9 as an NFL starter.
— Rodgers is now 24-5 in his career against Chicago.
— Bears are 1-6 ATS in last six visits to Lambeau Field.
— Green Bay scored 3 TD’s and FG on first five drives.
— Last 3+ years, Packers are 17-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last 3+ years, Green Bay is 10-0 ATS off a SU loss.
NFL Week 3 Bet Now, Bet Later: Mahomes Keeps Cookin' in Road Matchup vs. Colts
Jason Logan
Kansas City Chiefs (-6) at Indianapolis Colts: Bet Now
Has there been a more disappointing team in the opening two weeks of the 2022 season than the Colts?
Matt Ryan was supposed to be the X-factor in Indy, pushing this team over the top. But instead, the Colts come into Week 3 winless after a half-assed tie vs. Houston and a full-on ass whoopin’ at the hands of the Jaguars. Injuries may have played a hand in that Week 2 shutout, but this offense is a mess and the defense just made Trevor Lawrence look like… well, Patrick Mahomes.
The real Mahomes and the Chiefs looked amazing in Week 1 and then confirmed their place in the AFC pecking order with a huge win over the L.A. Chargers last Thursday, giving Kansas City a mini bye to rest up and prep for the Colts. And as impressive as the offense has been for KC, this defense has very much stepped up to the challenge with great pass pressure up front. Ryan has been sacked seven times already in 2022.
If you like Kansas City, grab it below a touchdown.
San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos (-1): Bet Later
Speaking of disappointing starts, the Broncos avoided a huge stumble by hanging on against Houston at home on Sunday. Denver fell short as 10-point chalk and had already soured bettors who jumped on it in last Monday’s upset loss in Seattle.
Books pegged Denver as a 2.5-point home favorite for this Week 3 non-conference clash with San Francisco, with new head coach Nathaniel Hackett in well over his head opposite Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers got right with a win over Seattle on Sunday after an upset loss of its own at Chicago in Week 1. The Niners did, however, lose starting QB Trey Lance for the season and now turn to “old reliable” Jimmy Garoppolo.
Denver’s biggest issue is finishing drives. The Broncos have outgained their first two opponents 783-487 in yardage but have only 32 total points to show for it, owning a disgraceful 0-for-6 count inside the red zone.
If you hold out hope for Russell Wilson to right the ship and believe in this Broncos defense, pump the breaks and wait for the market to wash its hands of Denver. This -2.5 is already down to -2 and -1 at select sportsbooks as of Sunday night. It wouldn’t shock me to see this flirt with pick’em, especially if Denver WR Jerry Jeudy misses time with a shoulder injury.
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (Over 43): Bet Now
The Bengals are mired in a nasty Super Bowl hangover at 0-2 out the gate. But Cincinnati has faced two very sound defensive opponents in Pittsburgh and Dallas — both of which rank among the best pass rushes in the NFL. And with that, Joe Burrow has been blasted for 13 total sacks. When Burrow remains upright and unbothered, he’s moved the chains for late-game rallies.
The Bengals’ high-priced offensive line has work to do but at least it faces a less aggressive defensive attack in Week 3. The Jets have three total sacks through two games and their stop unit has allowed 54 total points, including 30 to the Browns in a wild come-from-behind win in Week 2. New York’s defense is 31st in EPA allowed per dropback with rival QBs owning a success rate of 53%.
Let’s not poo-poo what Gang Green has done with the football, though. New York managed to put up 380 yards in the opening loss to Baltimore and finished with 402 yards and some points (31 to be exact) against Cleveland. The Jets were fourth in EPA per play in Week 2 (with primetime games to go) and sneakily sit No. 15 in this metric after two weeks — ahead of heavyweights like Tampa and the L.A. Rams.
Grab the Over on this total now as it is starting to climb at sharp books Sunday night.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (Over 40.5): Bet Later
Woof. When the Falcons are the best offense in the NFC South, you know something is up.
There are a number of reasons to jump on the Under in this divisional matchup in Week 3, which is driving the total down Sunday night. But if the market overreacts too much, we could see value with the Over later in the week.
The Saints defense did one hell of a job on Tom Brady and Tampa Bay on Sunday, but five turnovers and six sacks allowed from the offense stunted any progress under promoted OC Peter Carmichael. New Orleans actually outgained the Bucs and put up 300-plus yards but with RB Alvin Kamara out of action and Jameis Winston nursing a busted back, NOLA finished 4-for-13 on third downs against a very aggressive Tampa stop unit.
The Panthers are a sound defense but definitely not in the same vein as the Buccaneers. New Orleans boasts some very good skill players and Winston — healthy or not — and this passing game is the best offense Carolina will have seen so far after taking on Jacoby Brissett and Daniel Jones.
These rivals met in Week 17 last January with Sam Darnold and Taysom Hill under center and that total opened at 39.5 points before closing 37.5. Baker Mayfield is a slight upgrade for the Panthers’ passing game and Winston is capable of so much more.
Given what we saw in Week 2, this total could keep shrinking. If it gets anywhere near 39, give the Over a good long look as I think NOLA’s offense has much more to show this season.
Jason Logan
Kansas City Chiefs (-6) at Indianapolis Colts: Bet Now
Has there been a more disappointing team in the opening two weeks of the 2022 season than the Colts?
Matt Ryan was supposed to be the X-factor in Indy, pushing this team over the top. But instead, the Colts come into Week 3 winless after a half-assed tie vs. Houston and a full-on ass whoopin’ at the hands of the Jaguars. Injuries may have played a hand in that Week 2 shutout, but this offense is a mess and the defense just made Trevor Lawrence look like… well, Patrick Mahomes.
The real Mahomes and the Chiefs looked amazing in Week 1 and then confirmed their place in the AFC pecking order with a huge win over the L.A. Chargers last Thursday, giving Kansas City a mini bye to rest up and prep for the Colts. And as impressive as the offense has been for KC, this defense has very much stepped up to the challenge with great pass pressure up front. Ryan has been sacked seven times already in 2022.
If you like Kansas City, grab it below a touchdown.
San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos (-1): Bet Later
Speaking of disappointing starts, the Broncos avoided a huge stumble by hanging on against Houston at home on Sunday. Denver fell short as 10-point chalk and had already soured bettors who jumped on it in last Monday’s upset loss in Seattle.
Books pegged Denver as a 2.5-point home favorite for this Week 3 non-conference clash with San Francisco, with new head coach Nathaniel Hackett in well over his head opposite Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers got right with a win over Seattle on Sunday after an upset loss of its own at Chicago in Week 1. The Niners did, however, lose starting QB Trey Lance for the season and now turn to “old reliable” Jimmy Garoppolo.
Denver’s biggest issue is finishing drives. The Broncos have outgained their first two opponents 783-487 in yardage but have only 32 total points to show for it, owning a disgraceful 0-for-6 count inside the red zone.
If you hold out hope for Russell Wilson to right the ship and believe in this Broncos defense, pump the breaks and wait for the market to wash its hands of Denver. This -2.5 is already down to -2 and -1 at select sportsbooks as of Sunday night. It wouldn’t shock me to see this flirt with pick’em, especially if Denver WR Jerry Jeudy misses time with a shoulder injury.
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (Over 43): Bet Now
The Bengals are mired in a nasty Super Bowl hangover at 0-2 out the gate. But Cincinnati has faced two very sound defensive opponents in Pittsburgh and Dallas — both of which rank among the best pass rushes in the NFL. And with that, Joe Burrow has been blasted for 13 total sacks. When Burrow remains upright and unbothered, he’s moved the chains for late-game rallies.
The Bengals’ high-priced offensive line has work to do but at least it faces a less aggressive defensive attack in Week 3. The Jets have three total sacks through two games and their stop unit has allowed 54 total points, including 30 to the Browns in a wild come-from-behind win in Week 2. New York’s defense is 31st in EPA allowed per dropback with rival QBs owning a success rate of 53%.
Let’s not poo-poo what Gang Green has done with the football, though. New York managed to put up 380 yards in the opening loss to Baltimore and finished with 402 yards and some points (31 to be exact) against Cleveland. The Jets were fourth in EPA per play in Week 2 (with primetime games to go) and sneakily sit No. 15 in this metric after two weeks — ahead of heavyweights like Tampa and the L.A. Rams.
Grab the Over on this total now as it is starting to climb at sharp books Sunday night.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (Over 40.5): Bet Later
Woof. When the Falcons are the best offense in the NFC South, you know something is up.
There are a number of reasons to jump on the Under in this divisional matchup in Week 3, which is driving the total down Sunday night. But if the market overreacts too much, we could see value with the Over later in the week.
The Saints defense did one hell of a job on Tom Brady and Tampa Bay on Sunday, but five turnovers and six sacks allowed from the offense stunted any progress under promoted OC Peter Carmichael. New Orleans actually outgained the Bucs and put up 300-plus yards but with RB Alvin Kamara out of action and Jameis Winston nursing a busted back, NOLA finished 4-for-13 on third downs against a very aggressive Tampa stop unit.
The Panthers are a sound defense but definitely not in the same vein as the Buccaneers. New Orleans boasts some very good skill players and Winston — healthy or not — and this passing game is the best offense Carolina will have seen so far after taking on Jacoby Brissett and Daniel Jones.
These rivals met in Week 17 last January with Sam Darnold and Taysom Hill under center and that total opened at 39.5 points before closing 37.5. Baker Mayfield is a slight upgrade for the Panthers’ passing game and Winston is capable of so much more.
Given what we saw in Week 2, this total could keep shrinking. If it gets anywhere near 39, give the Over a good long look as I think NOLA’s offense has much more to show this season.
NFL OPINIONS AND BEST BETS
09/19/22....................0-2-0.................00.00%.................-11.00
09/18/22..................17-8-1.................67.31%................+41.00
09/11/22..................14-14-0...............50.00%..................- 7.00
09/08/22....................1-1-0.................50.00%..................- 0.50
TOTALS................32-25-1................56.14%.................+22.50
************************************************** *****************
BEST BETS
09/19/22...................0-2-0.................00.00%...............-11.00
09/18/22.................12-4-0.................75.00%...............+38.00
09/11/22.................11-7-0..................61.11%..............+ 16.50
09/08/22..................1-1-0..................50.00%.................- 0.50
TOTALS..............24-14.0..................63.15%...............+ 43.00
09/19/22....................0-2-0.................00.00%.................-11.00
09/18/22..................17-8-1.................67.31%................+41.00
09/11/22..................14-14-0...............50.00%..................- 7.00
09/08/22....................1-1-0.................50.00%..................- 0.50
TOTALS................32-25-1................56.14%.................+22.50
************************************************** *****************
BEST BETS
09/19/22...................0-2-0.................00.00%...............-11.00
09/18/22.................12-4-0.................75.00%...............+38.00
09/11/22.................11-7-0..................61.11%..............+ 16.50
09/08/22..................1-1-0..................50.00%.................- 0.50
TOTALS..............24-14.0..................63.15%...............+ 43.00
Armadillo Sports
NFL leaders in rushing yards
236— Saquon Barkley, NJG
228— Nick Chubb, Clev
215— Jonathan Taylor, Ind
200— D’Andre Swift, Det
192— Leonard Fournette, TB
181— Aaron Jones, GB
******************************
Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……..
Bills 41, Titans 7
— Last six quarters, Titans were outscored, 62-14.
Tennessee had a bad night:
— gave up 6 touchdowns
— lost yardage on 8 plays
— had 9 penalties
— scored only 7 points.
— turned ball over 4 times.
Titans are 0-2 for first time in ten years.
— Buffalo outgained first two opponents, 827-430
— Last 2+ years, Buffalo is 10-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last 2+ years, Buffalo is 13-8 ATS coming off a win
— Bills converted 14-23 third down plays in two games
Eagles 24, Vikings 7:
— Philly outgained the Vikings, 486-264.
— Minnesota threw 46 passes, ran ball only 11 times.
— Last 4+ years, Minnesota is 13-15 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Cousins is now 2-10 on Monday Night Football.
— Eagles converted 7-13 on third down, Vikings 4-12.
— All three of their TD drives were longer than 80 yards.
— Eagles ran ball for 216-163 yards in their first two games.
— Philly won easily despite losing field position by 17 yards.
— Thru two weeks, under is 21-10-1 in NFL games, 6-1 in prime time games. Is it too early to expect offenses to be sharp? Not playing key players in exhibition games may be setting offenses back in the first few weeks of the season.
— Tampa Bay WR Mike Evans is suspended for this week’s game with Green Bay, after he was in a fracas in New Orleans Sunday.
— When the Giants hired Brian Daboll as their new head coach, they were the sixth team Daboll had interviewed with to be head coach, which means that five other teams missed the boat. He is off to a very fast start changing the culture in New Jersey.
— 6,133 people entered the Circa Casino survivor pool; after two weeks, 2,033 people are left. Only 33.1% of contestants are left. All they have to do is pick one winner a week (no spread) but it ain’t that easy.
— Teams that have gone the longest since they were 2-0:
new Cleveland Browns- never (old Browns (now Ravens) were 2-0 in 1993)
Indianapolis Colts- 2009
Washington Commanders- 2011
Chargers- 2012
NFL leaders in rushing yards
236— Saquon Barkley, NJG
228— Nick Chubb, Clev
215— Jonathan Taylor, Ind
200— D’Andre Swift, Det
192— Leonard Fournette, TB
181— Aaron Jones, GB
******************************
Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……..
Bills 41, Titans 7
— Last six quarters, Titans were outscored, 62-14.
Tennessee had a bad night:
— gave up 6 touchdowns
— lost yardage on 8 plays
— had 9 penalties
— scored only 7 points.
— turned ball over 4 times.
Titans are 0-2 for first time in ten years.
— Buffalo outgained first two opponents, 827-430
— Last 2+ years, Buffalo is 10-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last 2+ years, Buffalo is 13-8 ATS coming off a win
— Bills converted 14-23 third down plays in two games
Eagles 24, Vikings 7:
— Philly outgained the Vikings, 486-264.
— Minnesota threw 46 passes, ran ball only 11 times.
— Last 4+ years, Minnesota is 13-15 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Cousins is now 2-10 on Monday Night Football.
— Eagles converted 7-13 on third down, Vikings 4-12.
— All three of their TD drives were longer than 80 yards.
— Eagles ran ball for 216-163 yards in their first two games.
— Philly won easily despite losing field position by 17 yards.
— Thru two weeks, under is 21-10-1 in NFL games, 6-1 in prime time games. Is it too early to expect offenses to be sharp? Not playing key players in exhibition games may be setting offenses back in the first few weeks of the season.
— Tampa Bay WR Mike Evans is suspended for this week’s game with Green Bay, after he was in a fracas in New Orleans Sunday.
— When the Giants hired Brian Daboll as their new head coach, they were the sixth team Daboll had interviewed with to be head coach, which means that five other teams missed the boat. He is off to a very fast start changing the culture in New Jersey.
— 6,133 people entered the Circa Casino survivor pool; after two weeks, 2,033 people are left. Only 33.1% of contestants are left. All they have to do is pick one winner a week (no spread) but it ain’t that easy.
— Teams that have gone the longest since they were 2-0:
new Cleveland Browns- never (old Browns (now Ravens) were 2-0 in 1993)
Indianapolis Colts- 2009
Washington Commanders- 2011
Chargers- 2012
PITTSBURGH is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game in the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 26-10 ATS (15 Units) in home games as a dog since 1992.
MIAMI is 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) in home games with <=6 days rest in the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game in the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 2-10 ATS (-9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread in the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) in games played on turf in the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS are 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) off a division game in the last 3 seasons.
LAS VEGAS are 63-94 ATS (-40.4 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games vs. division opponents in the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 55-34 ATS (17.6 Units) after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 18-2 ATS (15.8 Units) in home games against the AFC South since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 13-4 ATS (8.6 Units) after going under the total in the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 22-8 ATS (13.2 Units) in home games after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992.
LA RAMS are 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in road games after allowing 50 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.
DALLAS are 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games in the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 26-10 ATS (15 Units) in home games as a dog since 1992.
MIAMI is 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) in home games with <=6 days rest in the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game in the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 2-10 ATS (-9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread in the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) in games played on turf in the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS are 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) off a division game in the last 3 seasons.
LAS VEGAS are 63-94 ATS (-40.4 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games vs. division opponents in the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 55-34 ATS (17.6 Units) after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 18-2 ATS (15.8 Units) in home games against the AFC South since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 13-4 ATS (8.6 Units) after going under the total in the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 22-8 ATS (13.2 Units) in home games after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992.
LA RAMS are 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in road games after allowing 50 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.
DALLAS are 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games in the last 2 seasons.
NFL
Week 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 9 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games at home
Baltimore @ New England
Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games on the road
New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games at home
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Kansas City @ Indianapolis
Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Houston @ Chicago
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games on the road
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games at home
Detroit @ Minnesota
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 9 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota
Minnesota is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing at home against Detroit
Las Vegas @ Tennessee
Las Vegas
Las Vegas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games on the road
Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games
New Orleans @ Carolina
New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Carolina's last 19 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 10 games
Buffalo @ Miami
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Buffalo is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Miami
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Miami is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Cincinnati @ NY Jets
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games on the road
NY Jets
NY Jets is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
NY Jets is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Philadelphia @ Washington
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Washington
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games at home
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Jacksonville @ LA Chargers
Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
LA Chargers
LA Chargers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay
Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Green Bay's last 8 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Green Bay is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
LA Rams @ Arizona
LA Rams
LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
LA Rams is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Atlanta @ Seattle
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
San Francisco @ Denver
San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games on the road
Denver
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Denver's last 13 games
Dallas @ NY Giants
Dallas
Dallas is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing NY Giants
Dallas is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of NY Giants's last 13 games
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 9 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games at home
Baltimore @ New England
Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games on the road
New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games at home
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Kansas City @ Indianapolis
Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Houston @ Chicago
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games on the road
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games at home
Detroit @ Minnesota
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 9 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota
Minnesota is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing at home against Detroit
Las Vegas @ Tennessee
Las Vegas
Las Vegas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games on the road
Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games
New Orleans @ Carolina
New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Carolina's last 19 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 10 games
Buffalo @ Miami
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Buffalo is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Miami
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Miami is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Cincinnati @ NY Jets
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games on the road
NY Jets
NY Jets is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
NY Jets is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Philadelphia @ Washington
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Washington
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games at home
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Jacksonville @ LA Chargers
Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
LA Chargers
LA Chargers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay
Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Green Bay's last 8 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Green Bay is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
LA Rams @ Arizona
LA Rams
LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
LA Rams is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Atlanta @ Seattle
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
San Francisco @ Denver
San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games on the road
Denver
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Denver's last 13 games
Dallas @ NY Giants
Dallas
Dallas is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing NY Giants
Dallas is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of NY Giants's last 13 games
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Armadillo Sports
Wednesday’s 6-pack
NFL leaders in passing yardage
739— Tua Tagovailoa, Miami
650— Carson Wentz, Washington
616— Joe Flacco, NJ Jets
614— Josh Allen, Buffalo
613— Justin Herbert, LA Chargers
595— Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City
**************************
Wednesday’s Den: NFL teams and 3/outs…….
Thru two weeks, this is how NFL teams did with 3/outs, both offense and defense.
Offense:
.100— 49ers 2-20
49ers have had 20 drives, went 3/out only 2 times.
.111— Broncos 2-18
.118— Dolphins 2-17
.136— Jets 3-22
.150— Browns 3-20
.158— Eagles 3-19
.176— Packers 3-17
.188— Seahawks 3-16
.190— Chiefs 4-19
.200— Ravens 4-20
.211— Falcons 4-19
.222— Cardinals 4-18
.238— Cowboys 5-21
.250— Panthers 5-20
.261— Bengals 6-23
.263— Bills, Raiders, both 5-19
.286— Jaguars, Bucs, both 6-21
.294— Patriots 5-17
.300— Rams 6-20
.304— Colts .304
.333— Giants, Chargers both 7-21
.350— Vikings 7-20
.381— Titans, Steelers, both 8-21
.391— Lions 9-23
.400— Saints 10-25, Commanders 8-20
.409— Texans 9-22
.500— Bears 9-18
Defense
.455— Colts 10-22
.450— Eagles 9-20
.417— Bucs 10-24
.389— Packers 7-18
.350— Bills, Chiefs, both 7-20
.333— Titans, Jaguars, both 7-21, Patriots 5-15
.318— Falcons, Lions, both 7-22
.316— 49ers 6-19
.300— Browns, Chargers both 6-20
.294— Broncos, Dolphins both 5-17
.286— Giants 6-21
.263— Cowboys 5-19
.261— Bengals, Steelers, both 6-23
.250— Commanders 6-24
.238— Panthers 5-21
.222— Rams 4-22
.211— Raiders, Vikings 4-19
.200— Jets 4-20
.182— Texans 4-22
.167— Bears 3-18
.150— Cardinals 3-20
.091— Ravens
.000— Seahawks 0-18
In two games, Seattle’s defense has been on field for 18 drives, hasn’t forced a 3/out yet.
Wednesday’s 6-pack
NFL leaders in passing yardage
739— Tua Tagovailoa, Miami
650— Carson Wentz, Washington
616— Joe Flacco, NJ Jets
614— Josh Allen, Buffalo
613— Justin Herbert, LA Chargers
595— Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City
**************************
Wednesday’s Den: NFL teams and 3/outs…….
Thru two weeks, this is how NFL teams did with 3/outs, both offense and defense.
Offense:
.100— 49ers 2-20
49ers have had 20 drives, went 3/out only 2 times.
.111— Broncos 2-18
.118— Dolphins 2-17
.136— Jets 3-22
.150— Browns 3-20
.158— Eagles 3-19
.176— Packers 3-17
.188— Seahawks 3-16
.190— Chiefs 4-19
.200— Ravens 4-20
.211— Falcons 4-19
.222— Cardinals 4-18
.238— Cowboys 5-21
.250— Panthers 5-20
.261— Bengals 6-23
.263— Bills, Raiders, both 5-19
.286— Jaguars, Bucs, both 6-21
.294— Patriots 5-17
.300— Rams 6-20
.304— Colts .304
.333— Giants, Chargers both 7-21
.350— Vikings 7-20
.381— Titans, Steelers, both 8-21
.391— Lions 9-23
.400— Saints 10-25, Commanders 8-20
.409— Texans 9-22
.500— Bears 9-18
Defense
.455— Colts 10-22
.450— Eagles 9-20
.417— Bucs 10-24
.389— Packers 7-18
.350— Bills, Chiefs, both 7-20
.333— Titans, Jaguars, both 7-21, Patriots 5-15
.318— Falcons, Lions, both 7-22
.316— 49ers 6-19
.300— Browns, Chargers both 6-20
.294— Broncos, Dolphins both 5-17
.286— Giants 6-21
.263— Cowboys 5-19
.261— Bengals, Steelers, both 6-23
.250— Commanders 6-24
.238— Panthers 5-21
.222— Rams 4-22
.211— Raiders, Vikings 4-19
.200— Jets 4-20
.182— Texans 4-22
.167— Bears 3-18
.150— Cardinals 3-20
.091— Ravens
.000— Seahawks 0-18
In two games, Seattle’s defense has been on field for 18 drives, hasn’t forced a 3/out yet.
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 3
Thursday game
Steelers (1-1) @ Browns (1-1)
— Steelers scored 2 TD’s on 21 drives so far, with eight 3/outs.
— They were +5 in turnovers in their win, and still needed OT to win.
— Steelers were outgained 808-510 in first two games.
— Since 2017, Pittsburgh is 15-7 ATS as a road underdog.
— Steelers are 5-2 ATS in last seven AFC North road games.
— Under is 16-8-2 in their last 26 road games.
— Trubisky is 30-24 as an NFL starter.
— Cleveland gave up 14 points in last 1:22 of 31-30 loss last week.
— Browns ran for 217-184 yards in first two games.
— Cleveland converted 16-30 third down plays in two games.
— Last 2+ years, Cleveland is 6-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last two years, Browns are 0-5-1 ATS in AFC North home tilts.
— Last three years, Browns are 7-14-2 ATS coming off a loss.
— Brissett is 15-24 as an NFL starter, for four different teams.
— Steelers are 12-3-1 SU in last 16 series games.
— Pittsburgh is 6-8 ATS in last 14 trips to Cleveland.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven series games.
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 3
Thursday game
Steelers (1-1) @ Browns (1-1)
— Steelers scored 2 TD’s on 21 drives so far, with eight 3/outs.
— They were +5 in turnovers in their win, and still needed OT to win.
— Steelers were outgained 808-510 in first two games.
— Since 2017, Pittsburgh is 15-7 ATS as a road underdog.
— Steelers are 5-2 ATS in last seven AFC North road games.
— Under is 16-8-2 in their last 26 road games.
— Trubisky is 30-24 as an NFL starter.
— Cleveland gave up 14 points in last 1:22 of 31-30 loss last week.
— Browns ran for 217-184 yards in first two games.
— Cleveland converted 16-30 third down plays in two games.
— Last 2+ years, Cleveland is 6-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last two years, Browns are 0-5-1 ATS in AFC North home tilts.
— Last three years, Browns are 7-14-2 ATS coming off a loss.
— Brissett is 15-24 as an NFL starter, for four different teams.
— Steelers are 12-3-1 SU in last 16 series games.
— Pittsburgh is 6-8 ATS in last 14 trips to Cleveland.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven series games.
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 3
Sunday’s games
Saints (1-1) @ Panthers (0-2)
— Saints turned ball over five times (-4) in LW’s 20-10 loss to Tampa Bay.
— Game was 3-3 after 3rd quarter; Saints threw 3 INT’s in 4th quarter.
— Since 2017, NO is 18-9 ATS as a road favorite.
— Saints are 10-3 ATS in last 13 NFC South road games.
— Saints are 8-26 on 3rd down so far this season.
— Since 2019, New Orleans is 10-4-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Saints are 14-7-1 ATS in last 22 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Winston is 34-45 as an NFL starter, 6-4 with the Saints.
— Panthers lost their first two games, by 2-3 points.
— Carolina doesn’t have a takeaway yet; they’re minus-3 in turnovers.
— Last three years, Carolina is 2-8-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last three years, Panthers are 1-8 ATS in NFC South home games.
— Carolina is 2-10 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
— Last 3+ years, Carolina is 15-36 SU.
— Panthers are 2-8 ATS in last ten games with spread of 3 or less.
— Mayfield is 30-33 as an NFL starter.
— New Orleans won 10 of last 12 series games.
— Saints are 4-2 ATS in last six visits to Carolina.
— Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
Texans (0-1-1) @ Bears (1-1)
— Texans are 0-1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS this season.
— Houston was outrushed 326-157 in first two games.
— Last 2+ years, Texans are 6-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Texans have 2 TD’s on 22 drives this season (nine 3/outs)
— Houston is 1-7-1 ATS in last nine games vs NFC teams.
— Since 2016, Houston is 8-5-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— 2nd-year QB Mills is 2-10-1 as an NFL starter
— Chicago gained 204-228 yards in their first two games (opponents 745 yards)
— Bears have been outscored 31-7 in first half this season.
— Chicago is 15-28 passing in two games, with 153 net passing yards.
— Bears have converted only 6-21 third down plays.
— Last three years, Chicago is 5-6 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last two years, Bears are 6-3 ATS vs AFC teams.
— Last three years, Chicago is 9-14-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— 2nd-year QB Fields is 3-9 as an NFL starter.
— Lovie Smith coached the Bears from 2004-12.
— Houston won four of five series games.
— Texans won two of three visits to the Windy City.
— Under is 4-1 in series games.
Chiefs (2-0) @ Colts (0-1-1)
— Chiefs scored eight TD’s on 21 drives so far thus year (71 points/2 games).
— Chiefs played on Thursday LW, had extra rest/prep time for this.
— Last 3+ years, Kansas City is 12-10-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Chiefs have converted 9-20 (45%) on third down this year.
— Kansas City has scored 54 points in nine red zone drives (6.0 pts/drive)
— Since 2017, Chiefs are 30-24-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Mahomes is 60-16 as an NFL starter.
— Colts have been outscored 44-3 in quarters 1-3 this season.
— Indy has only two TD’s on 23 drives this season.
— Colts have converted 8-25 on third down so far.
— Colts scored only 17 points in seven trips to red zone.
— Indy is 3-6 ATS in last nine home openers.
— Last 4+ years, Colts are 1-3 ATS as a home underdog.
— Indy is 8-4-1 ATS in last 13 games coming off a loss.
— Ryan is Colts’ 6th different starting QB the last six years.
— Teams split last six meetings.
— Teams haven’t met since 2019.
— Chiefs are 2-3 ATS in last five visits to Indianapolis.
— Last five series games stayed under the total.
Bills (2-0) @ Dolphins (2-0)
— Buffalo outgained first two opponents, 827-430.
— Bills outscored first two opponents 45-0 in second half.
— Buffalo converted 14 of first 23 third down plays.
— Last 3+ years, Buffalo is 9-5 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last 2+ years, Buffalo is 13-8 ATS coming off a win
— Last four years, Bills are 8-3-1 ATS in AFC East road games.
— Josh Allen is 44-24 as an NFL starter.
— Miami rallied from down 35-14 to upset the Ravens 42-38 LW.
— Tagovailoa threw for 469 yards, six TD’s LW.
— Last 2+ years, Dolphins are 6-3 ATS as a home underdog.
— Miami has converted 13-25 third down plays.
— Last 4+ years, Miami is 8-4-1 ATS in AFC East home games.
— Last 3+ years, Dolphins are 16-8 ATS coming off a win.
— 3rd-year QB Tagovailoa is 15-8 as an NFL starter.
— Buffalo won last six series games.
— Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in last five visits to Miami.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.
Lions (1-1) @ Vikings (1-1)
— Detroit scored 71 points in splitting its first two games.
— Lions have run ball for 372 yards in two games.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 4-15-1 SU, 13-6 ATS.
— Last four years, Detroit is 14-12-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Lion opponents are 17-32 on 3rd down.
— Lions are 0-2-1 ATS in last three road openers.
— Over is 6-1 in Detroit’s last seven road openers.
— Detroit is 4-7-1 ATS in last 12 NFC North road games.
— Short week for Vikings after they got pummeled in Philly Monday.
— Minnesota has been outscored 17-6 in second half this season.
— Last two years, Minnesota is 3-8 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last seven years, Vikings are 12-7-1 ATS in NFC North home tilts.
— Minnesota has converted only 8-25 third down plays.
— Vikings have scored only 20 points in seven red zone drives.
— Cousins is 61-62-2 as an NFL starter.
— Vikings won seven of last eight series games.
— Lions are 4-7-2 ATS in last 13 visits to Minnesota.
— Over is 4-1 in last five series games.
Ravens (1-1) @ Patriots (1-1)
— Ravens blew 38-14 4th quarter lead LW, lost 42-38 to the Jets.
— Baltimore allowed 9.0 yards/pass attempt vs Flacco/Jets.
— Baltimore outscored first two opponents 38-10 in first half
— Last four years, Ravens are 9-11-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Since 2015, Baltimore is 13-16-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last three years, Ravens are 8-0 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Jackson is 39-16 as an NFL starter.
— 18-18 SU since Brady left; 10-7 ATS at home.
— Over last decade, Patriots are 7-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— New England has converted 13-26 third down plays.
— Since 2018, they’re 7-12 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Patriots are 4-2 ATS in last six home openers.
— Their last four home openers stayed under total.
— 2nd-year QB Jones is 11-9 as an NFL starter.
— New England is 8-3 in last 11 series games.
— Ravens are 2-5 ATS in last seven visits to Foxboro.
— Over is 4-1 in last five series games.
Bengals (0-2) @ Jets (1-1)
— Bengals lost their first two games, both on FG on last play.
— Cincy has been outscored 34-9 in first half this season.
— Since 2017, Bengals are 3-3 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last 2+ years, Cincy is 11-6 ATS coming off a loss.
— Bengals are minus-4 in turnovers (1-5)
— Opponents have converted only 7-25 third down plays.
— 3rd-year QB Burrow is 15-16-1 as an NFL starter.
— Jets scored two TD’s in last 1:22 in LW’s 31-30 upset in Cleveland.
— Jets had 295-309 passing yards, in their first two games.
— Last 2+ years, Jets are 12-21 ATS as an underdog.
— Jets are 7-10 ATS in last 17 games as a home underdog.
— Last four years, Jets are 6-9-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Opponents have converted 13-25 third down plays.
— Flacco is 109-84 as an NFL starter, but is 3-12 in starts the last 3+ years.
— Cincinnati won three of last four series games.
— Home side is 10-1 ATS in last 11 meetings.
— Bengals are 0-6 ATS in last six road series games.
— Over is 3-1 in last four series games.
Raiders (0-2) @ Titans (0-2)
— Raiders blew 20-0 halftime lead LW, lost to Arizona in OT.
— Raiders lost first two games, by 5-6 points.
— Las Vegas is 5-11 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
— Since 2017, Raiders are 2-7-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Las Vegas has been outscored 15-3 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Las Vegas is 2-5 ATS in last seven games with spread of 3 or less.
— Derek Carr is 57-73 as an NFL starter.
— Tennessee got whacked 41-7 in Buffalo Monday, a total no-show.
— Since halftime of Week 1, Titans have been outscored 62-14
— Titans have converted only 7-23 third down plays.
— Tennessee has been outgained 808-546 in two games.
— Since 2017, Titans are 9-3 ATS as a home underdog.
— Since 2015, Tennessee is 24-14-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Tannehill is 74-64 as an NFL starter.
— Raiders won three of last four series games.
— Road team won last five meetings.
— Raiders covered five of last six visits to Nashville.
Eagles (2-0) @ Commanders (1-1)
— Philly won its first two games, scoring 31 ppg.
— Eagles have run ball for 379 yards, converted 17-30 third down plays.
— Eagles led first two games 24-14/24-7 at halftime.
— Last 2+ years, Eagles are 3-6 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last two years, Philly is 6-8 ATS coming off a win.
— Last two years, Eagles are 0-6 ATS in NFC East road games.
— 3rd-year QB Hurts is 11-11 as an NFL starter.
— Washington gave up 58 points in splitting first two games.
— Commanders have been outrushed 314-173 in two games.
— Last five years, Washington is 11-14 ATS as a home underdog.
— Washington lost field position by 11-12 yards in Weeks 1-2.
— Last three years, Commanders are 11-19-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Since 2016, Commanders are 6-12 ATS in NFC East home games.
— QB Wentz is 45-42-1 as an NFL starter.
— Philly won eight of last ten series games.
— Eagles are 3-2 ATS in last five visits here.
— Over is 4-2 in last six series games.
Jaguars (1-1) @ Chargers (1-1)
— Jaguars evened their record with 24-0 upset of Colts last week.
— Since 2018, Jaguars are 11-18-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— While HC in Philly, Pederson was 9-13 ATS as a road dog.
— Last four years, Jaguars are 4-9 ATS coming off a win.
— Jacksonville opponents have only 14 points in 4 red zone drives.
— Jaguars have converted only 9-27 third down plays.
— 2nd-year QB Lawrence is 4-15 as an NFL starter.
— Extra prep week for Chargers; they played on Thursday LW.
— Chargers outscored first two opponents 27-10 in first half.
— Chargers have been outscored 36-21 in second half.
— Bolts are 5-3 ATS in last eight games as a home favorite.
— Chargers have run 139 plays in two games (opponents 110).
— Chargers have converted only 11-30 third down plays.
— Last three years, Chargers are 10-16-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Chargers won eight of last nine series games.
— Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in last five road series games.
— Over is 5-1 in last six series games.
Rams (1-1) @ Cardinals (1-1)
— Rams split first two games, giving up 31-27 points.
— Rams have 6 turnovers in two games, also had punt blocked for TD.
— Rams have converted 12-23 third down plays.
— Last 3+ years, LA is 9-8-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Rams won their last five road openers (3-1 ATS last four)
— Four of their last five road openers went over the total.
— Stafford is 17-6 as QB of the Rams.
— Cardinals rallied from down 20-0 at half to win in OT in Las Vegas LW.
— Arizona has been outscored 43-7 in first half this season.
— Cardinals have converted only 6-25 third down plays.
— That said, Arizona converted 3-5 4th down plays LW.
— Arizona is 3-6 ATS in last nine NFC West home games.
— Last three years, Arizona is 13-10 ATS coming off a win.
— Kyler Murray is 23-25-1 as an NFL starter.
— Rams (-3.5) beat Arizona 34-11 in playoffs LY.
— Los Angeles won 11 of last 12 series games.
— Rams are 7-0 ATS in last seven visits to Arizona.
— Over is 3-1 in last four series games.
Falcons (0-2) @ Seahawks (1-1)
— Falcons lost first two games, despite scoring 26-27 points.
— Atlanta scored four TD’s, tried six FG’s in first two games.
— Falcons have converted only 8-23 third down plays.
— Last 2+ years, Falcons are 12-9 ATS coming off a loss.
— Atlanta was 5-3 ATS LY in games with spread of 3 or less.
— In last four games dating back to LY, Falcons allowed 29.3 ppg.
— Mariota is 30-35 as an NFL starter.
— Seattle got waxed 27-7 LW; their only TD was a blocked FG.
— Since halftime of Week 1, Seattle has been outscored 30-7.
— In last three halves, Seattle has run 65 plays for 263 yards, no points.
— In two games, Seahawks have been outgained 806-469.
— Last two years, Seahawks are 7-6 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Last two years, Seattle is 10-5 ATS coming off a loss.
— Geno Smith is 14-22 as an NFL starter.
— Seahawks won four of last five series games.
— Falcons are 4-2 ATS in last six visits to Seattle.
— Over is 3-1 in last four series games.
Packers (1-1) @ Buccaneers (2-0)
— Just like LY, Packers were awful in Week 1, then won big in Week 2.
— Last three years, Green Bay won/covered their Week 3 game.
— Green Bay opponents have converted only 5-20 third down plays.
— Last three years, Packers are 8-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last year, Green Bay was 8-4-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Green Bay is 10-7-2 ATS in last 19 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Rodgers is 151-77-1 as an NFL starter.
— Tampa Bay WR Evans (suspended) is out for this game.
— Bucs have allowed only one TD on 24 drives.
— Bucs have scored only two TD’s on 21 drives.
— Tampa Bay has scored 10 points on four red zone drives.
— Last two years, Tampa Bay is 9-4-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— With Brady at QB, Bucs are 4-0 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Tampa Bay is 3-5 ATS in last eight home openers.
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.
— Buccaneers are 5-3 in last eight series games.
— Packers are 2-5 ATS in last seven visits to Tampa.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.
49ers (1-1) @ Broncos (1-1)
— 49ers split first two games, outgaining foes 704-420.
— 49ers outscored first two opponents 27-0 in first half.
— SF have scored only 23 points in eight red zone drives.
— Last 2+ years, 49ers are 6-5 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last five years, 49ers are 14-7 ATS when playing an AFC opponent.
— 49ers are 4-7 ATS in last 11 games with spread of 3 or less.
— QB Garoppolo is 37-16 as an NFL starter.
— Broncos split first two games, scoring 16-16 points.
— There are concerns about Coach Hackett’s game management skills.
— Denver has scored 12 points in six red zone drives.
— Denver is 8-5-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home dog.
— Last two years, Broncos are 4-8 ATS coming off a win.
— Since 2017, Denver is 13-14 ATS against NFC opponents.
— QB Wilson is 114-61-1 as an NFL starter.
— Broncos won three of last four series games.
— 49ers are 2-2 ATS in last four visits to Denver.
— Under is 4-2 in last six series games.
Monday’s game
Cowboys (1-1) @ Giants (2-0)
— QB Prescott (thumb) is out for at least four weeks.
— Dallas has only two TD’s on 21 drives this season.
— Last five years, Dallas is 14-8-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in last 15 road openers.
— Last five years, Dallas is 10-5 ATS in NFC East road games.
— Over is 4-2 in their last six road openers.
— Last 4+ years, Cowboys are 10-15 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— QB Rush is 2-0 as an NFL starter, winning 20-16 at Minnesota LY.
— Giants are 2-0 for first time since 2016, winning by 1-3 points.
— Giants outscored first two opponents 34-17 in second half.
— Big Blue has converted only 8-28 on third down.
— Giants ran ball for 341 yards in first two games.
— Giants are 4-8 ATS in last 12 NFC East home games.
— Last 3+ years, Giants are 8-6 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Daniel Jones is 14-25 as an NFL starter.
— Dallas won nine of last ten series games.
— Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in last five road series games.
— Over is 4-2 in last six series games.
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 3
Sunday’s games
Saints (1-1) @ Panthers (0-2)
— Saints turned ball over five times (-4) in LW’s 20-10 loss to Tampa Bay.
— Game was 3-3 after 3rd quarter; Saints threw 3 INT’s in 4th quarter.
— Since 2017, NO is 18-9 ATS as a road favorite.
— Saints are 10-3 ATS in last 13 NFC South road games.
— Saints are 8-26 on 3rd down so far this season.
— Since 2019, New Orleans is 10-4-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Saints are 14-7-1 ATS in last 22 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Winston is 34-45 as an NFL starter, 6-4 with the Saints.
— Panthers lost their first two games, by 2-3 points.
— Carolina doesn’t have a takeaway yet; they’re minus-3 in turnovers.
— Last three years, Carolina is 2-8-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last three years, Panthers are 1-8 ATS in NFC South home games.
— Carolina is 2-10 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
— Last 3+ years, Carolina is 15-36 SU.
— Panthers are 2-8 ATS in last ten games with spread of 3 or less.
— Mayfield is 30-33 as an NFL starter.
— New Orleans won 10 of last 12 series games.
— Saints are 4-2 ATS in last six visits to Carolina.
— Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
Texans (0-1-1) @ Bears (1-1)
— Texans are 0-1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS this season.
— Houston was outrushed 326-157 in first two games.
— Last 2+ years, Texans are 6-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Texans have 2 TD’s on 22 drives this season (nine 3/outs)
— Houston is 1-7-1 ATS in last nine games vs NFC teams.
— Since 2016, Houston is 8-5-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— 2nd-year QB Mills is 2-10-1 as an NFL starter
— Chicago gained 204-228 yards in their first two games (opponents 745 yards)
— Bears have been outscored 31-7 in first half this season.
— Chicago is 15-28 passing in two games, with 153 net passing yards.
— Bears have converted only 6-21 third down plays.
— Last three years, Chicago is 5-6 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last two years, Bears are 6-3 ATS vs AFC teams.
— Last three years, Chicago is 9-14-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— 2nd-year QB Fields is 3-9 as an NFL starter.
— Lovie Smith coached the Bears from 2004-12.
— Houston won four of five series games.
— Texans won two of three visits to the Windy City.
— Under is 4-1 in series games.
Chiefs (2-0) @ Colts (0-1-1)
— Chiefs scored eight TD’s on 21 drives so far thus year (71 points/2 games).
— Chiefs played on Thursday LW, had extra rest/prep time for this.
— Last 3+ years, Kansas City is 12-10-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Chiefs have converted 9-20 (45%) on third down this year.
— Kansas City has scored 54 points in nine red zone drives (6.0 pts/drive)
— Since 2017, Chiefs are 30-24-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Mahomes is 60-16 as an NFL starter.
— Colts have been outscored 44-3 in quarters 1-3 this season.
— Indy has only two TD’s on 23 drives this season.
— Colts have converted 8-25 on third down so far.
— Colts scored only 17 points in seven trips to red zone.
— Indy is 3-6 ATS in last nine home openers.
— Last 4+ years, Colts are 1-3 ATS as a home underdog.
— Indy is 8-4-1 ATS in last 13 games coming off a loss.
— Ryan is Colts’ 6th different starting QB the last six years.
— Teams split last six meetings.
— Teams haven’t met since 2019.
— Chiefs are 2-3 ATS in last five visits to Indianapolis.
— Last five series games stayed under the total.
Bills (2-0) @ Dolphins (2-0)
— Buffalo outgained first two opponents, 827-430.
— Bills outscored first two opponents 45-0 in second half.
— Buffalo converted 14 of first 23 third down plays.
— Last 3+ years, Buffalo is 9-5 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last 2+ years, Buffalo is 13-8 ATS coming off a win
— Last four years, Bills are 8-3-1 ATS in AFC East road games.
— Josh Allen is 44-24 as an NFL starter.
— Miami rallied from down 35-14 to upset the Ravens 42-38 LW.
— Tagovailoa threw for 469 yards, six TD’s LW.
— Last 2+ years, Dolphins are 6-3 ATS as a home underdog.
— Miami has converted 13-25 third down plays.
— Last 4+ years, Miami is 8-4-1 ATS in AFC East home games.
— Last 3+ years, Dolphins are 16-8 ATS coming off a win.
— 3rd-year QB Tagovailoa is 15-8 as an NFL starter.
— Buffalo won last six series games.
— Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in last five visits to Miami.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.
Lions (1-1) @ Vikings (1-1)
— Detroit scored 71 points in splitting its first two games.
— Lions have run ball for 372 yards in two games.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 4-15-1 SU, 13-6 ATS.
— Last four years, Detroit is 14-12-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Lion opponents are 17-32 on 3rd down.
— Lions are 0-2-1 ATS in last three road openers.
— Over is 6-1 in Detroit’s last seven road openers.
— Detroit is 4-7-1 ATS in last 12 NFC North road games.
— Short week for Vikings after they got pummeled in Philly Monday.
— Minnesota has been outscored 17-6 in second half this season.
— Last two years, Minnesota is 3-8 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last seven years, Vikings are 12-7-1 ATS in NFC North home tilts.
— Minnesota has converted only 8-25 third down plays.
— Vikings have scored only 20 points in seven red zone drives.
— Cousins is 61-62-2 as an NFL starter.
— Vikings won seven of last eight series games.
— Lions are 4-7-2 ATS in last 13 visits to Minnesota.
— Over is 4-1 in last five series games.
Ravens (1-1) @ Patriots (1-1)
— Ravens blew 38-14 4th quarter lead LW, lost 42-38 to the Jets.
— Baltimore allowed 9.0 yards/pass attempt vs Flacco/Jets.
— Baltimore outscored first two opponents 38-10 in first half
— Last four years, Ravens are 9-11-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Since 2015, Baltimore is 13-16-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last three years, Ravens are 8-0 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Jackson is 39-16 as an NFL starter.
— 18-18 SU since Brady left; 10-7 ATS at home.
— Over last decade, Patriots are 7-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— New England has converted 13-26 third down plays.
— Since 2018, they’re 7-12 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Patriots are 4-2 ATS in last six home openers.
— Their last four home openers stayed under total.
— 2nd-year QB Jones is 11-9 as an NFL starter.
— New England is 8-3 in last 11 series games.
— Ravens are 2-5 ATS in last seven visits to Foxboro.
— Over is 4-1 in last five series games.
Bengals (0-2) @ Jets (1-1)
— Bengals lost their first two games, both on FG on last play.
— Cincy has been outscored 34-9 in first half this season.
— Since 2017, Bengals are 3-3 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last 2+ years, Cincy is 11-6 ATS coming off a loss.
— Bengals are minus-4 in turnovers (1-5)
— Opponents have converted only 7-25 third down plays.
— 3rd-year QB Burrow is 15-16-1 as an NFL starter.
— Jets scored two TD’s in last 1:22 in LW’s 31-30 upset in Cleveland.
— Jets had 295-309 passing yards, in their first two games.
— Last 2+ years, Jets are 12-21 ATS as an underdog.
— Jets are 7-10 ATS in last 17 games as a home underdog.
— Last four years, Jets are 6-9-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Opponents have converted 13-25 third down plays.
— Flacco is 109-84 as an NFL starter, but is 3-12 in starts the last 3+ years.
— Cincinnati won three of last four series games.
— Home side is 10-1 ATS in last 11 meetings.
— Bengals are 0-6 ATS in last six road series games.
— Over is 3-1 in last four series games.
Raiders (0-2) @ Titans (0-2)
— Raiders blew 20-0 halftime lead LW, lost to Arizona in OT.
— Raiders lost first two games, by 5-6 points.
— Las Vegas is 5-11 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
— Since 2017, Raiders are 2-7-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Las Vegas has been outscored 15-3 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Las Vegas is 2-5 ATS in last seven games with spread of 3 or less.
— Derek Carr is 57-73 as an NFL starter.
— Tennessee got whacked 41-7 in Buffalo Monday, a total no-show.
— Since halftime of Week 1, Titans have been outscored 62-14
— Titans have converted only 7-23 third down plays.
— Tennessee has been outgained 808-546 in two games.
— Since 2017, Titans are 9-3 ATS as a home underdog.
— Since 2015, Tennessee is 24-14-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Tannehill is 74-64 as an NFL starter.
— Raiders won three of last four series games.
— Road team won last five meetings.
— Raiders covered five of last six visits to Nashville.
Eagles (2-0) @ Commanders (1-1)
— Philly won its first two games, scoring 31 ppg.
— Eagles have run ball for 379 yards, converted 17-30 third down plays.
— Eagles led first two games 24-14/24-7 at halftime.
— Last 2+ years, Eagles are 3-6 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last two years, Philly is 6-8 ATS coming off a win.
— Last two years, Eagles are 0-6 ATS in NFC East road games.
— 3rd-year QB Hurts is 11-11 as an NFL starter.
— Washington gave up 58 points in splitting first two games.
— Commanders have been outrushed 314-173 in two games.
— Last five years, Washington is 11-14 ATS as a home underdog.
— Washington lost field position by 11-12 yards in Weeks 1-2.
— Last three years, Commanders are 11-19-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Since 2016, Commanders are 6-12 ATS in NFC East home games.
— QB Wentz is 45-42-1 as an NFL starter.
— Philly won eight of last ten series games.
— Eagles are 3-2 ATS in last five visits here.
— Over is 4-2 in last six series games.
Jaguars (1-1) @ Chargers (1-1)
— Jaguars evened their record with 24-0 upset of Colts last week.
— Since 2018, Jaguars are 11-18-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— While HC in Philly, Pederson was 9-13 ATS as a road dog.
— Last four years, Jaguars are 4-9 ATS coming off a win.
— Jacksonville opponents have only 14 points in 4 red zone drives.
— Jaguars have converted only 9-27 third down plays.
— 2nd-year QB Lawrence is 4-15 as an NFL starter.
— Extra prep week for Chargers; they played on Thursday LW.
— Chargers outscored first two opponents 27-10 in first half.
— Chargers have been outscored 36-21 in second half.
— Bolts are 5-3 ATS in last eight games as a home favorite.
— Chargers have run 139 plays in two games (opponents 110).
— Chargers have converted only 11-30 third down plays.
— Last three years, Chargers are 10-16-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Chargers won eight of last nine series games.
— Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in last five road series games.
— Over is 5-1 in last six series games.
Rams (1-1) @ Cardinals (1-1)
— Rams split first two games, giving up 31-27 points.
— Rams have 6 turnovers in two games, also had punt blocked for TD.
— Rams have converted 12-23 third down plays.
— Last 3+ years, LA is 9-8-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Rams won their last five road openers (3-1 ATS last four)
— Four of their last five road openers went over the total.
— Stafford is 17-6 as QB of the Rams.
— Cardinals rallied from down 20-0 at half to win in OT in Las Vegas LW.
— Arizona has been outscored 43-7 in first half this season.
— Cardinals have converted only 6-25 third down plays.
— That said, Arizona converted 3-5 4th down plays LW.
— Arizona is 3-6 ATS in last nine NFC West home games.
— Last three years, Arizona is 13-10 ATS coming off a win.
— Kyler Murray is 23-25-1 as an NFL starter.
— Rams (-3.5) beat Arizona 34-11 in playoffs LY.
— Los Angeles won 11 of last 12 series games.
— Rams are 7-0 ATS in last seven visits to Arizona.
— Over is 3-1 in last four series games.
Falcons (0-2) @ Seahawks (1-1)
— Falcons lost first two games, despite scoring 26-27 points.
— Atlanta scored four TD’s, tried six FG’s in first two games.
— Falcons have converted only 8-23 third down plays.
— Last 2+ years, Falcons are 12-9 ATS coming off a loss.
— Atlanta was 5-3 ATS LY in games with spread of 3 or less.
— In last four games dating back to LY, Falcons allowed 29.3 ppg.
— Mariota is 30-35 as an NFL starter.
— Seattle got waxed 27-7 LW; their only TD was a blocked FG.
— Since halftime of Week 1, Seattle has been outscored 30-7.
— In last three halves, Seattle has run 65 plays for 263 yards, no points.
— In two games, Seahawks have been outgained 806-469.
— Last two years, Seahawks are 7-6 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Last two years, Seattle is 10-5 ATS coming off a loss.
— Geno Smith is 14-22 as an NFL starter.
— Seahawks won four of last five series games.
— Falcons are 4-2 ATS in last six visits to Seattle.
— Over is 3-1 in last four series games.
Packers (1-1) @ Buccaneers (2-0)
— Just like LY, Packers were awful in Week 1, then won big in Week 2.
— Last three years, Green Bay won/covered their Week 3 game.
— Green Bay opponents have converted only 5-20 third down plays.
— Last three years, Packers are 8-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last year, Green Bay was 8-4-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Green Bay is 10-7-2 ATS in last 19 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Rodgers is 151-77-1 as an NFL starter.
— Tampa Bay WR Evans (suspended) is out for this game.
— Bucs have allowed only one TD on 24 drives.
— Bucs have scored only two TD’s on 21 drives.
— Tampa Bay has scored 10 points on four red zone drives.
— Last two years, Tampa Bay is 9-4-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— With Brady at QB, Bucs are 4-0 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Tampa Bay is 3-5 ATS in last eight home openers.
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.
— Buccaneers are 5-3 in last eight series games.
— Packers are 2-5 ATS in last seven visits to Tampa.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.
49ers (1-1) @ Broncos (1-1)
— 49ers split first two games, outgaining foes 704-420.
— 49ers outscored first two opponents 27-0 in first half.
— SF have scored only 23 points in eight red zone drives.
— Last 2+ years, 49ers are 6-5 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last five years, 49ers are 14-7 ATS when playing an AFC opponent.
— 49ers are 4-7 ATS in last 11 games with spread of 3 or less.
— QB Garoppolo is 37-16 as an NFL starter.
— Broncos split first two games, scoring 16-16 points.
— There are concerns about Coach Hackett’s game management skills.
— Denver has scored 12 points in six red zone drives.
— Denver is 8-5-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home dog.
— Last two years, Broncos are 4-8 ATS coming off a win.
— Since 2017, Denver is 13-14 ATS against NFC opponents.
— QB Wilson is 114-61-1 as an NFL starter.
— Broncos won three of last four series games.
— 49ers are 2-2 ATS in last four visits to Denver.
— Under is 4-2 in last six series games.
Monday’s game
Cowboys (1-1) @ Giants (2-0)
— QB Prescott (thumb) is out for at least four weeks.
— Dallas has only two TD’s on 21 drives this season.
— Last five years, Dallas is 14-8-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in last 15 road openers.
— Last five years, Dallas is 10-5 ATS in NFC East road games.
— Over is 4-2 in their last six road openers.
— Last 4+ years, Cowboys are 10-15 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— QB Rush is 2-0 as an NFL starter, winning 20-16 at Minnesota LY.
— Giants are 2-0 for first time since 2016, winning by 1-3 points.
— Giants outscored first two opponents 34-17 in second half.
— Big Blue has converted only 8-28 on third down.
— Giants ran ball for 341 yards in first two games.
— Giants are 4-8 ATS in last 12 NFC East home games.
— Last 3+ years, Giants are 8-6 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Daniel Jones is 14-25 as an NFL starter.
— Dallas won nine of last ten series games.
— Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in last five road series games.
— Over is 4-2 in last six series games.
NFL OPINIONS AND BEST BETS
09/22/22....................2-0-0...............100.00%................+10.00
09/19/22....................0-2-0.................00.00%.................-11.00
09/18/22..................17-8-1.................67.31%................+41.00
09/11/22..................14-14-0...............50.00%..................- 7.00
09/08/22....................1-1-0.................50.00%..................- 0.50
TOTALS................34-25-1................57.62%.................+32.50
************************************************** *****************
BEST BETS
09/22/22...................2-0-0................100.00%..............+10.00
09/19/22...................0-2-0.................00.00%...............-11.00
09/18/22.................12-4-0.................75.00%...............+38.00
09/11/22.................11-7-0..................61.11%..............+ 16.50
09/08/22..................1-1-0..................50.00%.................- 0.50
TOTALS..............26-14.0..................65.00%...............+ 53.00
09/22/22....................2-0-0...............100.00%................+10.00
09/19/22....................0-2-0.................00.00%.................-11.00
09/18/22..................17-8-1.................67.31%................+41.00
09/11/22..................14-14-0...............50.00%..................- 7.00
09/08/22....................1-1-0.................50.00%..................- 0.50
TOTALS................34-25-1................57.62%.................+32.50
************************************************** *****************
BEST BETS
09/22/22...................2-0-0................100.00%..............+10.00
09/19/22...................0-2-0.................00.00%...............-11.00
09/18/22.................12-4-0.................75.00%...............+38.00
09/11/22.................11-7-0..................61.11%..............+ 16.50
09/08/22..................1-1-0..................50.00%.................- 0.50
TOTALS..............26-14.0..................65.00%...............+ 53.00
