NFL OPINIONS AND BEST BETS
09/11/22..................14-14-0...............50.00%................- 7.00
09/08/22....................1-1-0.................50.00%................- 0.50
TOTALS..................15-15-0...............50.00%.................-7.50
*******************************************************************
BEST BETS
09/11/22.................11-7-0..................61.11%...............+ 16.50
09/08/22..................1-1-0..................50.00%................- 0.50
TOTALS.................12-8.0..................60.00%...............+ 16.00
09/11/22..................14-14-0...............50.00%................- 7.00
09/08/22....................1-1-0.................50.00%................- 0.50
TOTALS..................15-15-0...............50.00%.................-7.50
*******************************************************************
BEST BETS
09/11/22.................11-7-0..................61.11%...............+ 16.50
09/08/22..................1-1-0..................50.00%................- 0.50
TOTALS.................12-8.0..................60.00%...............+ 16.00
Armadillo Sports
Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday
Browns 26, Panthers 24:
— Rookie K York drilled a 58-yard FG with 0:08 left for the win.
— Cleveland led 14-0 in second quarter.
— Browns ran ball for 217 yards.
— First three drives: 19 plays, 55 yards, no points.
— Last eight drives: two TD’s, four FG’s; 59 plays, 344 yards.
— Panthers’ first five drives: 19 plays, 13 yards, no points.
— Panthers in 4th quarter: 19 plays, 214 yards, 17 points.
— Carolina kicked FG with 1:13 left to take 24-23 lead.
— Last 3+ years, Carolina is 6-18-1 ATS at home.
— Last 3+ years, Carolina is 15-35 SU
Colts 20, Texans 20
— Colts trailed 20-3 after three quarters.
— Taylor ran ball 31 times for 161 yards.
— Colts gained 245 yards in first 3 quarters, 278 yards in 4th quarter/OT.
— Colts missed a 42-yard FG in overtime.
— Indy has one Week 1 win the last nine years,
— Colts outgained Houston, 517-299.
— Texans’ last six drives: 30 plays, 75 yards, no points.
— Both of Houston’s TD’s came on drives of only 58 yards.
— Last 2+ years, Houston is 5-2 ATS in AFC South home games.
Steelers 23, Bengals 20, OT
— Bengals missed game-winning PAT with 0:02 left that forced OT.
— Their long snapper was hurt; they also missed a 29-yard FG in OT.
— Bengals were in red zone five times, scored only two TD’s.
— Last 5+ years, Bengals are 7-12 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last 20 years, team that lost Super Bowl is 4-16 ATS in Week 1 the next season.
— Steelers picked off four passes, were +5 in turnovers.
— Boswell walked it off with a 53-yard FG in OT.
— Fitzpatrick scored on a pick-6 2:17 into the game.
— Pittsburgh is 10-2 ATS last 12 games as an AFC North underdog.
— Bengals outgained Pitt 432-267, ran 94 plays to 61 for Steelers.
Commanders 28, Jaguars 22
— Jaguars only scored 16 points in five trips to red zone.
— Jags had six plays of 20+ yards; five of them came on 1st-and-10.
— Jacksonville had 13 penalties for 90 yards.
— Pederson is 9-14 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last 9+ years, Jaguars are 6-32 ATS vs NFC teams.
— Wentz threw TD passes of 49-24 yards in last 10:00 in a comeback win.
— Washington scored on first two drives, led 14-3 at halftime.
— Commanders converted 7-10 on third down, Jaguars 3-12.
— Washington had three 4th down plays that gained 20+ yards.
Bears 19, 49ers 10
— Last quarter of this game was played in a rainy quagmire.
— Both QB’s completed less than half their passes.
— 49ers led 7-0 at halftime.
— Since 1994, 49ers are 2-9 ATS as a favorite in their road opener.
— Bears in 1st half: 30 plays, 68 yards, no points.
— Bears in 2nd half: 23 plays, 175 yards, 19 points.
— Under is 6-0 in their last six home openers.
— Bears won in Week 1 for only 2nd time the last nine years,
Dolphins 20, Patriots 7:
— Miami had three drives in first half, gained 47-45-92 yards.
— Miami scored defensive TD on a strip/sack in 2nd quarter.
— Last 2+ years, Dolphins were 13-5 ATS at home.
— Last 4+ years, Miami is 9-4-1 ATS in AFC East home games.
— Patriots’ only TD came on a 92-yard drive in 3rd quarter.
— New England lost five of last six visits to Miami.
— Last 2+ years, they’re 5-8 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— NE is 17-17 SU since Brady left; 4-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last 6+ years, under is 32-16-1 in their road games.
Saints 27, Falcons 26
— Atlanta led 26-10 with 12:00 left in game.
— Saints kicked 51-yard FG with 0:19 left for the win.
— Saints won their last five visits to Atlanta.
— Since 2010, New Orleans is 2-11 ATS in road openers, 0-7 if favored.
— Falcons scored five of first eight times they had ball.
— Falcons scored only once in their last five drives.
— New Orleans won eight of last ten series games.
— Since 1999, Atlanta is 8-2 ATS as an underdog in home openers.
— Falcons started out 0-1 six of the last seven seasons.
Ravens 24, Jets 9:
— Lamar Jackson threw TD passes of 25-17-55 yards.
— Jackson ran ball only six times, for 17 yards.
— Ravens are 10-5 ATS in last 15 road openers.
— Last seven years, Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in Week 1 games.
— Ravens won field position by 10 yards.
— Jets converted only 2-14 third down plays.
— Jets threw 59 passes, ran ball only 17 times (for 83 yards)
— Jets lost last five home openers (0-4 ATS), scoring 11.2 ppg.
— Last 2+ years, Jets are 11-21 ATS as an underdog.
— Jets started out 0-1 six of last seven seasons.
Eagles 38, Lions 35:
— Eagles scored on a pick-6 that made score 21-7 in 2nd quarter.
— Philly ran ball for 216 yards.
— Four rushing TD’s, by four different Eagles.
— Last 2+ years, Eagles are 2-6 ATS as road favorites.
— Eagles started out 1-0 in 10 of last 12 seasons.
— Lions converted 9-14 on 3rd down, Philly 10-17.
— Detroit went 3/out on four of first five drives.
— Lions scored three TD’s on four 2nd half drives.
— Detroit’s last 12 season openers have gone over the total.
— Lions are 3-14-1 SU in last 18 games, but 12-6 ATS
Chiefs 44, Cardinals 21
— Chiefs’ first three drives: 29 plays, 236 yards, 20 points.
— Kansas City ran 66 plays, only eight of them on 3rd down.
— Chiefs wound up scoring six TD’s on their 11 drives.
— Kansas City started 1-0 the last eight years, scoring 36.3 ppg.
— Chiefs are 18-6-1 ATS last 25 games with a spread of 3 or less.
— Cardinals gave up 9.2 yards per pass play.
— Arizona was 3-12 on third down, Chiefs 5-8.
— Chiefs outgained the Cardinals, 488-282.
— Last 3+ years, over is 15-10 in Cardinal home games.
— Since 2016, Cardinals are 14-23 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
Vikings 23, Packers 7
— Green Bay in first half: 25 plays, 101 yards, 6 first downs, no points.
— Packers turned ball over twice (-2), were 3-9 on third down.
— Last 6+ years, Green Bay is 10-14-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last 6+ years, Packers are 8-11 ATS in NFC North road games.
— Minnesota led 17-0 at halftime.
— Jefferson caught nine passes for 184 yards.
— Over last 10+ years, Vikings are 18-6 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last 7+ years, Minnesota is 13-8-1 ATS in NFC North home games.
Chargers 24, Raiders 19:
— Carr was sacked six times, threw three picks.
— Raiders were minus-3 in turnovers.
— Chargers had 9-yard edge in average field position.
— Last 6+ years, Raiders are 7-12 ATS in AFC West road tilts.
— Chargers scored three TD’s, kicked FG on first six drives.
— Chargers led 17-3 at halftime.
— Bolts lost WR Allen to hamstring injury; they play on Thursday this week.
— Fourth year in row Chargers started the season with a win.
Giants 21, Titans 20
— Trailing 20-13, Giants scored TD with 1:06 left, went for 2 points and got it.
— Giants trailed 13-0 at halftime.
— Giants in first half: 27 plays, 116 yards, no points.
— Giants in second half: 31 plays, 264 yards, 21 points.
— Last four years, Giants are 20-10 ATS as a road underdog.
— Giants ran ball for 238 yards against Tennessee.
— Titans converted only 3-11 third down plays.
— Henry ran ball for only 82 yards on 21 carries.
— Last 4+ years, they’re 10-12 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2013, Titans are 0-6-1 ATS as a favorite in home openers.
Buccaneers 19, Cowboys 3
— Dak Prescott hurt his right thumb, is out multiple weeks.
— Will they call 49ers about Jimmy Garoppolo?
— Elliott ran ball for 52 yards on only 10 carries,
— Cowboys converted only 3-15 third down plays.
— Last 3+ years, Dallas is 6-11 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Bucs had ball five times in first half, tried five field goals (4-5)
— Fournette ran ball for 127 yards.
— Tampa Bay had 12-yard advantage in average field position.
— Bucs were only team in NFL not to allow a TD this week.
— With Brady at QB, Bucs are 3-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday
Browns 26, Panthers 24:
— Rookie K York drilled a 58-yard FG with 0:08 left for the win.
— Cleveland led 14-0 in second quarter.
— Browns ran ball for 217 yards.
— First three drives: 19 plays, 55 yards, no points.
— Last eight drives: two TD’s, four FG’s; 59 plays, 344 yards.
— Panthers’ first five drives: 19 plays, 13 yards, no points.
— Panthers in 4th quarter: 19 plays, 214 yards, 17 points.
— Carolina kicked FG with 1:13 left to take 24-23 lead.
— Last 3+ years, Carolina is 6-18-1 ATS at home.
— Last 3+ years, Carolina is 15-35 SU
Colts 20, Texans 20
— Colts trailed 20-3 after three quarters.
— Taylor ran ball 31 times for 161 yards.
— Colts gained 245 yards in first 3 quarters, 278 yards in 4th quarter/OT.
— Colts missed a 42-yard FG in overtime.
— Indy has one Week 1 win the last nine years,
— Colts outgained Houston, 517-299.
— Texans’ last six drives: 30 plays, 75 yards, no points.
— Both of Houston’s TD’s came on drives of only 58 yards.
— Last 2+ years, Houston is 5-2 ATS in AFC South home games.
Steelers 23, Bengals 20, OT
— Bengals missed game-winning PAT with 0:02 left that forced OT.
— Their long snapper was hurt; they also missed a 29-yard FG in OT.
— Bengals were in red zone five times, scored only two TD’s.
— Last 5+ years, Bengals are 7-12 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last 20 years, team that lost Super Bowl is 4-16 ATS in Week 1 the next season.
— Steelers picked off four passes, were +5 in turnovers.
— Boswell walked it off with a 53-yard FG in OT.
— Fitzpatrick scored on a pick-6 2:17 into the game.
— Pittsburgh is 10-2 ATS last 12 games as an AFC North underdog.
— Bengals outgained Pitt 432-267, ran 94 plays to 61 for Steelers.
Commanders 28, Jaguars 22
— Jaguars only scored 16 points in five trips to red zone.
— Jags had six plays of 20+ yards; five of them came on 1st-and-10.
— Jacksonville had 13 penalties for 90 yards.
— Pederson is 9-14 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last 9+ years, Jaguars are 6-32 ATS vs NFC teams.
— Wentz threw TD passes of 49-24 yards in last 10:00 in a comeback win.
— Washington scored on first two drives, led 14-3 at halftime.
— Commanders converted 7-10 on third down, Jaguars 3-12.
— Washington had three 4th down plays that gained 20+ yards.
Bears 19, 49ers 10
— Last quarter of this game was played in a rainy quagmire.
— Both QB’s completed less than half their passes.
— 49ers led 7-0 at halftime.
— Since 1994, 49ers are 2-9 ATS as a favorite in their road opener.
— Bears in 1st half: 30 plays, 68 yards, no points.
— Bears in 2nd half: 23 plays, 175 yards, 19 points.
— Under is 6-0 in their last six home openers.
— Bears won in Week 1 for only 2nd time the last nine years,
Dolphins 20, Patriots 7:
— Miami had three drives in first half, gained 47-45-92 yards.
— Miami scored defensive TD on a strip/sack in 2nd quarter.
— Last 2+ years, Dolphins were 13-5 ATS at home.
— Last 4+ years, Miami is 9-4-1 ATS in AFC East home games.
— Patriots’ only TD came on a 92-yard drive in 3rd quarter.
— New England lost five of last six visits to Miami.
— Last 2+ years, they’re 5-8 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— NE is 17-17 SU since Brady left; 4-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last 6+ years, under is 32-16-1 in their road games.
Saints 27, Falcons 26
— Atlanta led 26-10 with 12:00 left in game.
— Saints kicked 51-yard FG with 0:19 left for the win.
— Saints won their last five visits to Atlanta.
— Since 2010, New Orleans is 2-11 ATS in road openers, 0-7 if favored.
— Falcons scored five of first eight times they had ball.
— Falcons scored only once in their last five drives.
— New Orleans won eight of last ten series games.
— Since 1999, Atlanta is 8-2 ATS as an underdog in home openers.
— Falcons started out 0-1 six of the last seven seasons.
Ravens 24, Jets 9:
— Lamar Jackson threw TD passes of 25-17-55 yards.
— Jackson ran ball only six times, for 17 yards.
— Ravens are 10-5 ATS in last 15 road openers.
— Last seven years, Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in Week 1 games.
— Ravens won field position by 10 yards.
— Jets converted only 2-14 third down plays.
— Jets threw 59 passes, ran ball only 17 times (for 83 yards)
— Jets lost last five home openers (0-4 ATS), scoring 11.2 ppg.
— Last 2+ years, Jets are 11-21 ATS as an underdog.
— Jets started out 0-1 six of last seven seasons.
Eagles 38, Lions 35:
— Eagles scored on a pick-6 that made score 21-7 in 2nd quarter.
— Philly ran ball for 216 yards.
— Four rushing TD’s, by four different Eagles.
— Last 2+ years, Eagles are 2-6 ATS as road favorites.
— Eagles started out 1-0 in 10 of last 12 seasons.
— Lions converted 9-14 on 3rd down, Philly 10-17.
— Detroit went 3/out on four of first five drives.
— Lions scored three TD’s on four 2nd half drives.
— Detroit’s last 12 season openers have gone over the total.
— Lions are 3-14-1 SU in last 18 games, but 12-6 ATS
Chiefs 44, Cardinals 21
— Chiefs’ first three drives: 29 plays, 236 yards, 20 points.
— Kansas City ran 66 plays, only eight of them on 3rd down.
— Chiefs wound up scoring six TD’s on their 11 drives.
— Kansas City started 1-0 the last eight years, scoring 36.3 ppg.
— Chiefs are 18-6-1 ATS last 25 games with a spread of 3 or less.
— Cardinals gave up 9.2 yards per pass play.
— Arizona was 3-12 on third down, Chiefs 5-8.
— Chiefs outgained the Cardinals, 488-282.
— Last 3+ years, over is 15-10 in Cardinal home games.
— Since 2016, Cardinals are 14-23 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
Vikings 23, Packers 7
— Green Bay in first half: 25 plays, 101 yards, 6 first downs, no points.
— Packers turned ball over twice (-2), were 3-9 on third down.
— Last 6+ years, Green Bay is 10-14-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last 6+ years, Packers are 8-11 ATS in NFC North road games.
— Minnesota led 17-0 at halftime.
— Jefferson caught nine passes for 184 yards.
— Over last 10+ years, Vikings are 18-6 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last 7+ years, Minnesota is 13-8-1 ATS in NFC North home games.
Chargers 24, Raiders 19:
— Carr was sacked six times, threw three picks.
— Raiders were minus-3 in turnovers.
— Chargers had 9-yard edge in average field position.
— Last 6+ years, Raiders are 7-12 ATS in AFC West road tilts.
— Chargers scored three TD’s, kicked FG on first six drives.
— Chargers led 17-3 at halftime.
— Bolts lost WR Allen to hamstring injury; they play on Thursday this week.
— Fourth year in row Chargers started the season with a win.
Giants 21, Titans 20
— Trailing 20-13, Giants scored TD with 1:06 left, went for 2 points and got it.
— Giants trailed 13-0 at halftime.
— Giants in first half: 27 plays, 116 yards, no points.
— Giants in second half: 31 plays, 264 yards, 21 points.
— Last four years, Giants are 20-10 ATS as a road underdog.
— Giants ran ball for 238 yards against Tennessee.
— Titans converted only 3-11 third down plays.
— Henry ran ball for only 82 yards on 21 carries.
— Last 4+ years, they’re 10-12 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2013, Titans are 0-6-1 ATS as a favorite in home openers.
Buccaneers 19, Cowboys 3
— Dak Prescott hurt his right thumb, is out multiple weeks.
— Will they call 49ers about Jimmy Garoppolo?
— Elliott ran ball for 52 yards on only 10 carries,
— Cowboys converted only 3-15 third down plays.
— Last 3+ years, Dallas is 6-11 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Bucs had ball five times in first half, tried five field goals (4-5)
— Fournette ran ball for 127 yards.
— Tampa Bay had 12-yard advantage in average field position.
— Bucs were only team in NFL not to allow a TD this week.
— With Brady at QB, Bucs are 3-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
NFL OPINIONS AND BEST BETS
09/12/22....................0-2-0.................00.00%................-11.00
09/11/22..................14-14-0...............50.00%................- 7.00
09/08/22....................1-1-0.................50.00%................- 0.50
TOTALS..................15-17-0..............46.87%................-18.50
************************************************** *****************
BEST BETS
09/12/22...................0-2-0..................00.00%...............-11.00
09/11/22.................11-7-0..................61.11%..............+ 16.50
09/08/22..................1-1-0..................50.00%................- 0.50
TOTALS...............12-10.0.................54.54%...............+ 5.00
09/12/22....................0-2-0.................00.00%................-11.00
09/11/22..................14-14-0...............50.00%................- 7.00
09/08/22....................1-1-0.................50.00%................- 0.50
TOTALS..................15-17-0..............46.87%................-18.50
************************************************** *****************
BEST BETS
09/12/22...................0-2-0..................00.00%...............-11.00
09/11/22.................11-7-0..................61.11%..............+ 16.50
09/08/22..................1-1-0..................50.00%................- 0.50
TOTALS...............12-10.0.................54.54%...............+ 5.00
NFL Week 1 Rewind
Daniel Dobish
NFL WEEK 1 RESULTS
WAGER (Favorites-Underdogs)
Straight Up (SU): 10-5-1
Against the Spread (ATS): 8-8
WAGER (Home-Away)
Straight Up (SU): 6-9-1
Against the Spread (ATS): 10-6
WAGER (Totals O/U)
Over-Under: 5-11
NFL SEASON RESULTS
WAGER (Favorites-Underdogs)
Straight Up (SU): 10-5-1
Against the Spread (ATS): 8-8
WAGER (Home-Away)
Straight Up (SU): 6-9-1
Against the Spread (ATS): 10-6
WAGER (Totals O/U)
Over-Under: 5-11
BIGGEST UNDERDOGS TO CASH
Giants (+7.5, ML +290) 21 @ Titans 20
Steelers (+7.5, ML +265) 23 @ Bengals 20 (OT)
Seahawks (+7, ML +260) 17 vs. Broncos 16
Bears (+6.5, ML +230) 19 vs. 49ers 10
BIGGEST FAVORITES TO CASH
Chiefs (-6.5) 44 @ Cardinals 21
Ravens (-6.5) 24 @ Jets 9
Chargers (-4.5) 24 vs. Raiders 19
Dolphins (-3.5) 20 vs. Patriots 7
BIGGEST ROAD FAVORITES TO CASH
Ravens (-6.5) 24 @ Jets 9
BIGGEST BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK
The bad beats in the NFL aren't nearly as dirty as college football, but we still have them.
If you were holding a Raiders +4.5 ticket, you were sucking wind all day long. The Raiders were down 17-3 at halftime, and just couldn't get their new-look offense moving. However, RB Brandon Bolden scored on an 18-yard reception from QB Derek Carr, and the Raiders were in business. I wonder what the astronomical odds of Bolden being the first Vegas TD scorer were, by the way.
The Chargers restored their 14-point lead with a scoring connection from QB Justin Herbert to TE Gerald Everett, making it 24-10 midway through the third. The Raiders wouldn't go away, though. A field goal late in the third made it 24-13.
Both teams saw the defenses take over in the fourth quarter, but the Raiders weren't done. With 4:32 to go in regulation, Carr hit WR Davante Adams for a 3-yard TD, making it 24-19. The Raiders elected to go for two, and much to the dismay of those holding +4.5 tickets, they misfired. The final score was 24-19, and Raiders side bettors missed by a half-point. Ouch.
BAD BEAT HONORABLE MENTIONS
N.Y. GIANTS at TENNESSEE (-5.5, Total - 44)
This was a sickening finish for both Titans side bettors laying -5.5, while individuals holding OVER tickets couldn't believe their fortunes, either.
The Titans fired out to a 13-0 lead at halftime, and this looked like the same ol' G-Men despite the change to head coach Brian Daboll. But the third quarter is when the Giants came alive, and, in particular, RB Saquon Barkley resurfaced.
After years of nagging injuries, Barkley is back, and he looked awfully dangerous. The Giants saw Barkley score early in the third quarter, making it 13-6. The G-Men then struck with a big play, as QB Daniel Jones hooked up with WR Sterling Shepard for a 65-yard score, knotting up the game at 13-13.
The Titans struck late in the third, as QB Ryan Tannehill found RB Dontrell Hilliard for his second touchdown catch of the day, making it 20-13.
Jones attempted to hit Barkley in the left corner of the end zone in the fourth quarter, but he was picked off. Daboll came over to Jones on the bench, and bawled out the quarterback. It apparently lit a fire under the signal caller, as the next time the Giants got the ball back, Jones led the team down the field for a touchdown with just 66 seconds left in regulation. Instead of playing for overtime, Daboll elected to go for two, and Jones hit Barkley for the go-ahead conversion, making it 21-20.
The hopes of the Titans side bettors went up in smoke. But OVER bettors still had a chance, as the Titans drove down the field. However, PK Randy Bullock misfired on a game-winning field goal at the buzzer, crushing OVER bettors, and anyone who might have decided to foolishly bet the money line.
PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI (Total - 44.5)
This game was wild. The Steelers took the lead on a pick-six by FS Minkah Fitzpatrick just 2:17 into the game, one of four interceptions and five total turnovers by QB Joe Burrow. It got worse.
The defending AFC champs were down 17-6 at halftime. The scoring slowed to a crawl in the second half, and we had a 48-yard field goal from PK Chris Boswell early in the fourth quarter to make it 20-14 in favor of the visitors.
The Bengals nearly pulled it off, however, driving the field, with Burrow hitting WR Ja'Marr Chase with a 6-yard touchdown with just :02 left in regulation. The Bengals simply needed an extra point to win. And PK Evan McPherson's PAT was blocked.
Can you imagine the sinking feeling of being on the right side of the UNDER all day long, only to have overtime spoil your day? Well, luckily Boswell and McPherson each misfired on field goal attempts in OT. It went all the way down to the wire before Boswell finally cashed in, walking it off for a 23-20 win in OT. UNDER bettors hung on, and OVER bettors, nearly gifted a winner, suffered a bad beat, although it certainly wasn't a textbook bad beat.
JACKSONVILLE (+2.5, Total - 43.5) at WASHINGTON
The Commanders went up 14-3 at halftime, and things were looking good for the newly named home side. But the Jaguars fought back, scoring a touchdown and field goal in the third quarter to cut the lead to 14-12.
It got better for the Jags, as they scored another field goal and touchdown, turning things from a 14-3 deficit, to a 22-14 lead for the visitors. However, Washington quickly answered, as WR Terry McLaurin posted a 49-yard touchdown to cut the lead to 22-20, although it missed on a 2-point attempt.
UNDER bettors were hanging in there, but rookie WR Jamar Dotson hauled in a 24-yard touchdown from QB Carson Wentz, making it 28-22, handing Jaguars side bettors, Jaguars money line bettors and UNDER bettors a bad beat with one flick of the wrist.
Daniel Dobish
NFL WEEK 1 RESULTS
WAGER (Favorites-Underdogs)
Straight Up (SU): 10-5-1
Against the Spread (ATS): 8-8
WAGER (Home-Away)
Straight Up (SU): 6-9-1
Against the Spread (ATS): 10-6
WAGER (Totals O/U)
Over-Under: 5-11
NFL SEASON RESULTS
WAGER (Favorites-Underdogs)
Straight Up (SU): 10-5-1
Against the Spread (ATS): 8-8
WAGER (Home-Away)
Straight Up (SU): 6-9-1
Against the Spread (ATS): 10-6
WAGER (Totals O/U)
Over-Under: 5-11
BIGGEST UNDERDOGS TO CASH
Giants (+7.5, ML +290) 21 @ Titans 20
Steelers (+7.5, ML +265) 23 @ Bengals 20 (OT)
Seahawks (+7, ML +260) 17 vs. Broncos 16
Bears (+6.5, ML +230) 19 vs. 49ers 10
BIGGEST FAVORITES TO CASH
Chiefs (-6.5) 44 @ Cardinals 21
Ravens (-6.5) 24 @ Jets 9
Chargers (-4.5) 24 vs. Raiders 19
Dolphins (-3.5) 20 vs. Patriots 7
BIGGEST ROAD FAVORITES TO CASH
Ravens (-6.5) 24 @ Jets 9
BIGGEST BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK
The bad beats in the NFL aren't nearly as dirty as college football, but we still have them.
If you were holding a Raiders +4.5 ticket, you were sucking wind all day long. The Raiders were down 17-3 at halftime, and just couldn't get their new-look offense moving. However, RB Brandon Bolden scored on an 18-yard reception from QB Derek Carr, and the Raiders were in business. I wonder what the astronomical odds of Bolden being the first Vegas TD scorer were, by the way.
The Chargers restored their 14-point lead with a scoring connection from QB Justin Herbert to TE Gerald Everett, making it 24-10 midway through the third. The Raiders wouldn't go away, though. A field goal late in the third made it 24-13.
Both teams saw the defenses take over in the fourth quarter, but the Raiders weren't done. With 4:32 to go in regulation, Carr hit WR Davante Adams for a 3-yard TD, making it 24-19. The Raiders elected to go for two, and much to the dismay of those holding +4.5 tickets, they misfired. The final score was 24-19, and Raiders side bettors missed by a half-point. Ouch.
BAD BEAT HONORABLE MENTIONS
N.Y. GIANTS at TENNESSEE (-5.5, Total - 44)
This was a sickening finish for both Titans side bettors laying -5.5, while individuals holding OVER tickets couldn't believe their fortunes, either.
The Titans fired out to a 13-0 lead at halftime, and this looked like the same ol' G-Men despite the change to head coach Brian Daboll. But the third quarter is when the Giants came alive, and, in particular, RB Saquon Barkley resurfaced.
After years of nagging injuries, Barkley is back, and he looked awfully dangerous. The Giants saw Barkley score early in the third quarter, making it 13-6. The G-Men then struck with a big play, as QB Daniel Jones hooked up with WR Sterling Shepard for a 65-yard score, knotting up the game at 13-13.
The Titans struck late in the third, as QB Ryan Tannehill found RB Dontrell Hilliard for his second touchdown catch of the day, making it 20-13.
Jones attempted to hit Barkley in the left corner of the end zone in the fourth quarter, but he was picked off. Daboll came over to Jones on the bench, and bawled out the quarterback. It apparently lit a fire under the signal caller, as the next time the Giants got the ball back, Jones led the team down the field for a touchdown with just 66 seconds left in regulation. Instead of playing for overtime, Daboll elected to go for two, and Jones hit Barkley for the go-ahead conversion, making it 21-20.
The hopes of the Titans side bettors went up in smoke. But OVER bettors still had a chance, as the Titans drove down the field. However, PK Randy Bullock misfired on a game-winning field goal at the buzzer, crushing OVER bettors, and anyone who might have decided to foolishly bet the money line.
PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI (Total - 44.5)
This game was wild. The Steelers took the lead on a pick-six by FS Minkah Fitzpatrick just 2:17 into the game, one of four interceptions and five total turnovers by QB Joe Burrow. It got worse.
The defending AFC champs were down 17-6 at halftime. The scoring slowed to a crawl in the second half, and we had a 48-yard field goal from PK Chris Boswell early in the fourth quarter to make it 20-14 in favor of the visitors.
The Bengals nearly pulled it off, however, driving the field, with Burrow hitting WR Ja'Marr Chase with a 6-yard touchdown with just :02 left in regulation. The Bengals simply needed an extra point to win. And PK Evan McPherson's PAT was blocked.
Can you imagine the sinking feeling of being on the right side of the UNDER all day long, only to have overtime spoil your day? Well, luckily Boswell and McPherson each misfired on field goal attempts in OT. It went all the way down to the wire before Boswell finally cashed in, walking it off for a 23-20 win in OT. UNDER bettors hung on, and OVER bettors, nearly gifted a winner, suffered a bad beat, although it certainly wasn't a textbook bad beat.
JACKSONVILLE (+2.5, Total - 43.5) at WASHINGTON
The Commanders went up 14-3 at halftime, and things were looking good for the newly named home side. But the Jaguars fought back, scoring a touchdown and field goal in the third quarter to cut the lead to 14-12.
It got better for the Jags, as they scored another field goal and touchdown, turning things from a 14-3 deficit, to a 22-14 lead for the visitors. However, Washington quickly answered, as WR Terry McLaurin posted a 49-yard touchdown to cut the lead to 22-20, although it missed on a 2-point attempt.
UNDER bettors were hanging in there, but rookie WR Jamar Dotson hauled in a 24-yard touchdown from QB Carson Wentz, making it 28-22, handing Jaguars side bettors, Jaguars money line bettors and UNDER bettors a bad beat with one flick of the wrist.
NFL
Week 2
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LA Chargers @ Kansas City
LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games on the road
Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City's last 9 games
Kansas City is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
New Orleans
New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
Carolina @ NY Giants
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of NY Giants's last 12 games
NY Jets @ Cleveland
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
NY Jets is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
New England @ Pittsburgh
New England
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-0-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing New England
Miami @ Baltimore
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
Miami is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Baltimore
Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Miami
Baltimore is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Miami
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville
Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Washington @ Detroit
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington's last 11 games when playing Detroit
Washington is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games when playing Detroit
Detroit
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
Seattle @ San Francisco
Seattle
Seattle is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games when playing San Francisco
Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Francisco's last 9 games
San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta @ LA Rams
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Rams's last 8 games at home
LA Rams is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
Arizona @ Las Vegas
Arizona
Arizona is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Arizona is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 6 games
Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Houston @ Denver
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games on the road
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Denver's last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing Houston
Cincinnati @ Dallas
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
Dallas
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Chicago @ Green Bay
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Tennessee @ Buffalo
Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tennessee's last 10 games on the road
Buffalo
Buffalo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Buffalo is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games at home
Minnesota @ Philadelphia
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Minnesota's last 11 games on the road
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 2
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LA Chargers @ Kansas City
LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games on the road
Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City's last 9 games
Kansas City is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
New Orleans
New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
Carolina @ NY Giants
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of NY Giants's last 12 games
NY Jets @ Cleveland
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
NY Jets is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
New England @ Pittsburgh
New England
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-0-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing New England
Miami @ Baltimore
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
Miami is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Baltimore
Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Miami
Baltimore is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Miami
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville
Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Washington @ Detroit
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington's last 11 games when playing Detroit
Washington is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games when playing Detroit
Detroit
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
Seattle @ San Francisco
Seattle
Seattle is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games when playing San Francisco
Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Francisco's last 9 games
San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta @ LA Rams
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Rams's last 8 games at home
LA Rams is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
Arizona @ Las Vegas
Arizona
Arizona is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Arizona is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 6 games
Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Houston @ Denver
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games on the road
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Denver's last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing Houston
Cincinnati @ Dallas
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
Dallas
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Chicago @ Green Bay
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Tennessee @ Buffalo
Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tennessee's last 10 games on the road
Buffalo
Buffalo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Buffalo is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games at home
Minnesota @ Philadelphia
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Minnesota's last 11 games on the road
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 2
Thursday game
Chargers (1-0) @ Chiefs (1-0)
— Short week, long travel for Chargers this week.
— Chargers were +3 in turnovers, beat Raiders 24-19 (-3) last week.
— Last three years, Bolts are 3-6 ATS in AFC West road games.
— Since 2015, Chargers are 21-12-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Bolts are 4-1-1 ATS in last six road openers.
— Under is 3-0 in their last three road openers.
— Last three years, Chargers are 7-10-1 ATS coming off a win.
–Star WR Allen (hamstring) unlikely to play here.
— Chiefs scored six TD’s on 11 drives, won 44-21 at Arizona LW.
— Chiefs outgained Arizona 488-282; only 8 of their 66 plays were on 3rd down.
— Kansas City won/covered four of last five home openers.
— Last two years, Chiefs are 7-9 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2016, Kansas City is 11-7 ATS in AFC West home games.
— Since 2017, Chiefs are 30-23-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Over is 5-0-2 in their last seven home openers.
— Chiefs won 13 of last 16 series games, but Chargers won their last two visits to Arrowhead.
— Chargers are 5-2 ATS in last seven visits to Kansas City.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight meetings.
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 2
Thursday game
Chargers (1-0) @ Chiefs (1-0)
— Short week, long travel for Chargers this week.
— Chargers were +3 in turnovers, beat Raiders 24-19 (-3) last week.
— Last three years, Bolts are 3-6 ATS in AFC West road games.
— Since 2015, Chargers are 21-12-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Bolts are 4-1-1 ATS in last six road openers.
— Under is 3-0 in their last three road openers.
— Last three years, Chargers are 7-10-1 ATS coming off a win.
–Star WR Allen (hamstring) unlikely to play here.
— Chiefs scored six TD’s on 11 drives, won 44-21 at Arizona LW.
— Chiefs outgained Arizona 488-282; only 8 of their 66 plays were on 3rd down.
— Kansas City won/covered four of last five home openers.
— Last two years, Chiefs are 7-9 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2016, Kansas City is 11-7 ATS in AFC West home games.
— Since 2017, Chiefs are 30-23-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Over is 5-0-2 in their last seven home openers.
— Chiefs won 13 of last 16 series games, but Chargers won their last two visits to Arrowhead.
— Chargers are 5-2 ATS in last seven visits to Kansas City.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight meetings.
This guy has no idea what he's talking about is if he thinks losing your Raiders wager was a bad beat.
Not sure how the Gman quote got in there but disrregard it and anytthing he says about the NFL.
NFL OPINIONS AND BEST BETS
09/15/22....................2-0-0................100.00%..............+10.00
09/12/22....................0-2-0.................00.00%................-11.00
09/11/22..................14-14-0...............50.00%................- 7.00
09/08/22....................1-1-0.................50.00%................- 0.50
TOTALS..................17-17-0...............50.00%................-8.50
************************************************** *****************
BEST BETS
09/15/22...................2-0-0................100.00%..............+10.00
09/12/22...................0-2-0..................00.00%...............-11.00
09/11/22.................11-7-0..................61.11%..............+ 16.50
09/08/22..................1-1-0..................50.00%................- 0.50
TOTALS...............14-10.0.................58.33%...............+ 15.00
09/15/22....................2-0-0................100.00%..............+10.00
09/12/22....................0-2-0.................00.00%................-11.00
09/11/22..................14-14-0...............50.00%................- 7.00
09/08/22....................1-1-0.................50.00%................- 0.50
TOTALS..................17-17-0...............50.00%................-8.50
************************************************** *****************
BEST BETS
09/15/22...................2-0-0................100.00%..............+10.00
09/12/22...................0-2-0..................00.00%...............-11.00
09/11/22.................11-7-0..................61.11%..............+ 16.50
09/08/22..................1-1-0..................50.00%................- 0.50
TOTALS...............14-10.0.................58.33%...............+ 15.00
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 18
| Game | Time(ET) | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB at NO | 01:00 PM | TB -2.5 U 44.0 | +500 +500 |
| NYJ at CLE | 01:00 PM | CLE -6.5 U 38.5 | +500 +500 |
| NE at PIT | 01:00 PM | PIT +3.0 U 40.0 | +500 +500 |
| IND at JAC | 01:00 PM | JAC +3.0 U 43.5 | +500 +500 |
| MIA at BAL | 01:00 PM | BAL -3.0 U 44.0 | +500 +500 |
| WAS at DET | 01:00 PM | DET +1.0 O 48.5 | +500 +500 |
| CAR at NYG | 01:00 PM | CAR -1.0 O 44.0 | +500 +500 |
