Monday's Best Bet
April 17, 2017
NBA Playoffs Best Bet
Game 2: Indiana vs. Cleveland
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Cleveland (-8.5); Total set at 209
With all the talk after Game 1 being about the Pacers missed shot at the buzzer and who on Indiana should have taken that shot, many are failing to remember that Indiana played a hell of a game for 48 minutes and cashed an ATS ticket as sizable underdogs fairly easily.
Tonight the Pacers get another crack at this Cleveland team who still showed that their defensive issues haven't quite been resolved. Will the Pacers get over the hump with the outright win tonight, or will Cleveland hunker down and dominate Indiana like this point spread suggests?
After a 2-0 ATS start to the NBA playoffs with two outright underdog winners in Milwaukee and Chicago, let's get right to tonight's best bet on this Cavs/Pacers game.
Sportsbook.ag Best Bet: Indiana/Cleveland Under 209
The 109-108 score wasn't that uncommon for these two teams as their final three meetings of the year – all played from February or beyond – were high scoring affairs. Cleveland topped the 130+ point mark twice (one in OT) and now game between these two during that span finished with less than 217 points. So why is the 'under' the best bet tonight?
Well for one, the Game 1 shooting percentages for both teams were well above the norm as Indiana was 49.4% from the field while Cleveland came in at 53.8%. Those numbers are absurdly high for an opening game of a playoff series, let alone the opening game of the playoffs in general, and the 22 combined three-point shots made likely won't be reached tonight.
Each side has a much thorough understanding of how the other plans on attacking them and with adjustments critical to success this time of year, both sides should make some of the necessary ones to have more success defensively.
Secondly, I've already touched on the idea that Cleveland “tanked” down the stretch to avoid Chicago, and that they've stated multiple times that while there are issues defensively for them, they were in no hurry to “show their hand” and give competitors ample film to know what to expect.
For all intents and purposes the Cavs stuck to that idea in Game 1, going out there believing they could beat Indiana with their offense alone and that's exactly what happened. However, the fact that Indiana was one make away from stealing Game 1 couldn't have sat well with the Cavs and we should see their defensive intensity pick up quite a bit here.
That's not to say Cleveland will expose their cards face up after one scare, but adding a few wrinkles here and there should make life much more difficult for the Pacers this evening.
Finally, there has been quite a bit of overreaction to how Game 1 played considering many bettors got burned on that total. Game 1 opened up in the 213 range, was instantly bet down to 212 and 211, before further movement saw the game bottom out at 207.5 before a bit of money came back the other way.
With that much action on the 'under' getting burned – and it really was never in question after the 1st half – bettors are expecting a similar script to play out in Game 2 and backing the 'over' because of it.
Right now, VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers show about 75% of the bets on tonight's total being on the high side and it's puzzling to think that that many people who felt so strongly about the 'under' in Game 1 can flip their tune in a heartbeat because of one result.
Many of those signs and reasons behind backing an 'under' between these two teams still exist two days later, and you saw in the 4th quarter (41 points scored) that come crunch time both sides aren't afraid to lock it down.
Given how close Game 1 was, expect the defense to reach that “lock down mode” much earlier tonight as those same bettors that got burned with the 'under' in Game 1 and are now flipping to the 'over' will likely get burned again.
April 17, 2017
NBA Playoffs Best Bet
Game 2: Indiana vs. Cleveland
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Cleveland (-8.5); Total set at 209
With all the talk after Game 1 being about the Pacers missed shot at the buzzer and who on Indiana should have taken that shot, many are failing to remember that Indiana played a hell of a game for 48 minutes and cashed an ATS ticket as sizable underdogs fairly easily.
Tonight the Pacers get another crack at this Cleveland team who still showed that their defensive issues haven't quite been resolved. Will the Pacers get over the hump with the outright win tonight, or will Cleveland hunker down and dominate Indiana like this point spread suggests?
After a 2-0 ATS start to the NBA playoffs with two outright underdog winners in Milwaukee and Chicago, let's get right to tonight's best bet on this Cavs/Pacers game.
Sportsbook.ag Best Bet: Indiana/Cleveland Under 209
The 109-108 score wasn't that uncommon for these two teams as their final three meetings of the year – all played from February or beyond – were high scoring affairs. Cleveland topped the 130+ point mark twice (one in OT) and now game between these two during that span finished with less than 217 points. So why is the 'under' the best bet tonight?
Well for one, the Game 1 shooting percentages for both teams were well above the norm as Indiana was 49.4% from the field while Cleveland came in at 53.8%. Those numbers are absurdly high for an opening game of a playoff series, let alone the opening game of the playoffs in general, and the 22 combined three-point shots made likely won't be reached tonight.
Each side has a much thorough understanding of how the other plans on attacking them and with adjustments critical to success this time of year, both sides should make some of the necessary ones to have more success defensively.
Secondly, I've already touched on the idea that Cleveland “tanked” down the stretch to avoid Chicago, and that they've stated multiple times that while there are issues defensively for them, they were in no hurry to “show their hand” and give competitors ample film to know what to expect.
For all intents and purposes the Cavs stuck to that idea in Game 1, going out there believing they could beat Indiana with their offense alone and that's exactly what happened. However, the fact that Indiana was one make away from stealing Game 1 couldn't have sat well with the Cavs and we should see their defensive intensity pick up quite a bit here.
That's not to say Cleveland will expose their cards face up after one scare, but adding a few wrinkles here and there should make life much more difficult for the Pacers this evening.
Finally, there has been quite a bit of overreaction to how Game 1 played considering many bettors got burned on that total. Game 1 opened up in the 213 range, was instantly bet down to 212 and 211, before further movement saw the game bottom out at 207.5 before a bit of money came back the other way.
With that much action on the 'under' getting burned – and it really was never in question after the 1st half – bettors are expecting a similar script to play out in Game 2 and backing the 'over' because of it.
Right now, VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers show about 75% of the bets on tonight's total being on the high side and it's puzzling to think that that many people who felt so strongly about the 'under' in Game 1 can flip their tune in a heartbeat because of one result.
Many of those signs and reasons behind backing an 'under' between these two teams still exist two days later, and you saw in the 4th quarter (41 points scored) that come crunch time both sides aren't afraid to lock it down.
Given how close Game 1 was, expect the defense to reach that “lock down mode” much earlier tonight as those same bettors that got burned with the 'under' in Game 1 and are now flipping to the 'over' will likely get burned again.