Sunday's Early Tips
April 15, 2017
Eastern Conference First Round
No. 5 Atlanta at No. 4 Washington (TNT, 6:30 p.m. ET)
2016-17 Regular Season (Wizards 3-1)
Oct. 27 Wizards at Hawks (-4) 114-99 (Over 202.5)
Nov. 4 Hawks at Wizards (-1.5) 95-92 (Under 205.5)
Jan. 27 Wizards (+3.5) at Hawks 112-86 (Under 214.5)
Mar. 22 Hawks at Wizards (-7.5) 104-100 (Under 215.5)
-- This is a rematch of the Eastern Conference semifinals two seasons ago, a series won by Atlanta (43-39 straight up, 39-43 against the spread) in six games. This time around, Washington has home-court advantage after finishing fourth in the Eastern Conference. Most books have the Wizards listed as -240 favorites to advance, while the Hawks are +200 underdogs for the series (risk $100 to win $200).
-- As of late Saturday afternoon, most betting shops had Washington installed as a five-point favorite for Sunday’s Game 1 at Verizon Center. The total was 209, while the Hawks were +185 on the money line (risk $100 to win $185).
-- Washington (49-33 SU, 42-39 ATS) has posted a 30-11 SU record and a 23-18 ATS mark at home this year.
-- The Wizards are led by one of The Association’s premier backcourts in point guard John Wall and shooting guard Bradley Beal. Wall is averaging team-highs in scoring (23.1 points per game), assists (10.7 APG) and steals (2.0 SPG). The University of Kentucky product shot at a career-best 45.1 percent clip from the field during the regular seasons. Wall also pulled down 4.2 rebounds per game. Beal is averaging 23.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.1 steals per game. The fifth-year guard, who helped the Florida Gators get to the Elite Eight during his lone season in the college ranks, also shot at a career-high pace (48.2%) from the field this year. Beal made 40.4 percent of his 3-balls during the regular season and 82.5 percent of his free throws.
-- Washington center Ian Mahinmi has a left calf strain and isn’t expected to be ready to play for about two weeks. The 30-year-old reserve averages 5.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 0.8 blocked shots per conteState
-- Washington is third in the NBA in field-goal percentage (47.5%) and fifth in scoring (109.2 points per game).
-- These teams met four times during the regular season. After Atlanta won a 114-99 decision at Philips Arena on Oct. 27, the Wizards ripped off three straight wins in the head-to-head series. They covered the number in the first two wins, but Atlanta took the money in the final encounter. The Hawks hooked up their backers as 7.5-point underdogs in a 104-100 loss at Washington on March 22. Beal paced the winners with 28 points, nine rebounds and four steals, while Wall produced 22 points, 10 assists, four steals and a pair of steals. Tim Hardaway Jr. scored a team-best 29 points in the losing effort. The University of Michigan product had two steals and three assists without committing a turnover. Hardaway made 9-of-16 shots from the field. Dwight Howard finished with 14 points and 15 rebounds.
-- Atlanta only has one starter left from the team that eliminated the Wizards en route to the Eastern Conference finals two years ago. First, the Hawks lost DeMarre Carroll in free agency. Next, they traded Jeff Teague and lost Al Horford via free agency. When a mid-season trade was made with Atlanta moving Kyle Korver to Cleveland, there was only Paul Millsap remaining from the starters on that team that finished first in the East by a wide margin and won 60 regular-season games despite resting starters consistently for the last six weeks.
-- Millsap had another All-Star campaign and appears poised to opt out of his thee-year contract and become an unrestricted free agent this coming offseason. Millsap is averaging 18.1 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.3 steals and 0.9 blocked shots per game.
-- Atlanta sent Teague to Indiana to make room for Dennis Schroder, who moved into the starting lineup after averaging in double figures coming off the bench the two previous seasons. Schroder averaged 17.9 points, 6.3 assists and 3.1 rebounds per game in 79 regular-season contests. The trade to the Pacers brought back a first-round pick that was used on Taurean Prince, a small forward who averaged 5.7 points and 2.7 rebounds per game as a rookie.
-- Atlanta inked Dwight Howard in free agency last summer and re-signed Kent Bazemore to a lucrative $70 million deal. Howard averaged 13.5 points, 12.7 rebounds and 1.2 blocked shots per game. Bazemore averaged 11.0 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.3 steals per game. He hit only 40.9 percent of his shots from the field and 34.6 percent from downtown.
-- The big development for the Hawks this year was the emergence of Hardaway. He averaged 14.5 PPG, draining 45.5 percent of his field-goal attempts. Hardaway has been particularly hot of late, scoring 23, 22 and 21 points in a crucial three-game stretch that included wins over Cleveland (twice) and Boston.
-- Atlanta held on to the fifth seed thanks to a four-game winning streak that included the three aforementioned victories and a 103-76 beatdown of Charlotte that sealed up the No. 5 spot in the EaState This became huge when Boston edged the Cavs for the East’s top slot. Now the winner of this series won’t have to face the defending champs in the East semifinals.
-- Mike Budenholzer’s squad went 20-21 SU and 22-19 ATS in its regular-season road assignments.
-- Atlanta owns a 6-1 spread record with three outright victories in its last seven games as an underdog.
-- The ‘over’ has been a monster money maker for the Wizards, cashing at 51-31 overall clip. The ‘over’ is 25-16 in their home outings. With that said, Washington saw the ‘under’ prevail in three of its last four regular-season contests.
-- The ‘under’ went 48-32-2 overall for the Hawks during the regular season, going 25-14-2 in their road games. Since Feb. 13, the ‘under’ is on a 19-8-1 roll in Atlanta games.
-- The ‘over’ hit in Atlanta’s win over the Wizards (114-99) in October, but the ‘under’ cashed in the next three head-to-head encounters.
-- Tip-off is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on TNT.
Western Conference First Round
No. 8 Portland at No. 1 Golden State (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
2016-17 Regular Season (Warriors 4-0)
Nov. 1 Warriors (-5) at Blazers 127-104 (Over 225.5)
Dec. 17 Blazers at Warriors (-14) 135-90 (Under 234)
Jan. 4 Blazers at Warriors (-16) 125-117 (Over 222)
Jan. 29 Warriors (-6) at Blazers 113-111 (Under 224.5)
-- This is a rematch of last year’s West semifinals won by Golden State in five games. However, the series was much closer than the five-game length suggests. In fact, Portland went to halftime with the lead in all five games of the series. After Portland won Game 3 by double digits, it trailed 2-1 going into Game 4 at home. The Trail Blazers led by 10 at intermission, only to eventually lose 132-125 in overtime. Then in Game 5, the Warriors overcame a five-point halftime deficit to win a 125-121 decision thanks to a 33-point effort from Klay Thompson, who buried 13-of-17 FGs and 6-of-9 launches from 3-point land.
-- As of late Saturday afternoon, most books had Golden State (67-15 SU, 40-39-3 ATS) listed as a 14.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 220. The Trail Blazers were +1200 on the money line (risk $100 to win $1,200). For first-half wagers, the Warriors were favored by 8.5 points with a 108-point tally.
-- Golden State is the -7000 favorite to win the series. Gamblers can earn a 20/1 payout by backing the Trail Blazers to pull a shocking upset and advance to the West semifinals.
-- Steve Kerr’s team beat Portland in all four regular-season meetings, but the Trail Blazers took the cash in the last two encounters. When these clubs squared off on Jan. 29 at Moda Center, Golden State captured a 113-111 win but the Trail Blazers covered the spread as six-point home underdogs. Kevin Durant coughed up seven turnovers, but he scored 33 points, pulled down 10 rebounds and dished out six assists. Thompson added 27 points, while Zaza Pachulia tallied 12 points, two steals, three rebounds and five assists without a turnover. C.J. McCollum finished with 28 points, seven boards and three assists in the losing effort. Damian Lillard finished with 19 points and eight assists.
-- Golden State has compiled a 36-5 SU record and a 21-18-2 ATS ledger in its home games.
-- Golden State is ranked No. 1 in the NBA in scoring (115.9 PPG), FG percentage (49.5%), FG percentage defense (43.5%) and defending the 3-point line (32.4%).
-- Golden State forward Draymond Green (10.2 PPG, 7.9 RPG) averages team-highs in assists (7.0 APG), steals (2.0 SPG) and blocked shots (1.4 BPG). Steph Curry is averaging a team-best 25.3 PPG while shooting at a 46.8 percent clip from the field and 41.1 percent from 3-point range. Curry also averages 6.8 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game. Kevin Durant, the prized free-agent score for the team that’s looking to go to the NBA Finals for a third straight season, averages 25.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.6 blocked shots and 1.1 steals per game. Thompson is scoring at a 22.3 PPG clip.
-- Portland (41-41 SU, 40-42 ATS) has limped to a 16-25 SU record and a 18-23 ATS mark in its road games. The Trail Blazers have been double-digit underdogs eight times this season, going 4-4 ATS with a pair of outright victories.
-- Since the start of March, Portland has played its best basketball by posting a 17-6 record both SU and ATS.
-- Portland is led by one of the league’s best backcourts with Lillard and McCollum. Lillard enjoyed another stellar campaign, averaging 27.0 points, 5.9 assists and 4.9 rebounds per game. Meanwhile, McCollum averages 23.0 points, 3.6 assists and 3.6 rebounds per game. Lillard (89.5%) and McCollum (91.2%) are two of The Association’s best FT shooters.
-- Portland is thin on the interior after losing Festus Ezeli and Ed Davis (4.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG) to season-ending injuries. Also, center Jusuf Nurkic is listed as ‘doubtful’ for Game 1 due to a leg injury. Nurkic is averaging 15.2 points, 10.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.9 blocked shots and 1.2 steals per game.
-- Golden State veteran reserve forward Matt Barnes is ‘out’ indefinitely with an ankle injury. In 20 games with the Warriors, Barnes averaged 5.7 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game.
-- The ‘over’ is 44-37-1 overall for the Trail Blazers, 22-19 in their road outings.
-- The ‘under’ is 50-32 overall for the Warriors, 22-19 in their home games.
-- The totals were a wash (2-2) in this year’s four head-to-head meetings, but the ‘over’ is 7-3 in the last 10 encounters dating back to last season.
-- ABC will have the broadcast from Oak-Town at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
