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MLB
Weather Report


Tuesday, October 6



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905NY YANKEES -906 TAMPA BAY
NY YANKEES are 6-14 SU (-11.5 Units) in road games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the current season.


907HOUSTON -908 OAKLAND
HOUSTON is 21-33 SU (-15.7 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.


909MIAMI -910 ATLANTA
MIAMI is 22-7 SU (12.8 Units) in road games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.


911SAN DIEGO -912 LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 35-22 SU (11.3 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.








MLB
Long Sheet


Tuesday, October 6



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NY YANKEES (35 - 27) vs. TAMPA BAY (42 - 20) - 8:10 PM
MASAHIRO TANAKA (R) vs. TYLER GLASNOW (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 8-2 (+7.5 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)

MASAHIRO TANAKA vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
TANAKA is 11-5 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.31 and a WHIP of 0.921.
His team's record is 14-7 (+6.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 11-10. (+0.4 units)

TYLER GLASNOW vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
GLASNOW is 1-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 3.70 and a WHIP of 1.315.
His team's record is 3-2 (+1.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+1.9 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (31 - 31) vs. OAKLAND (38 - 25) - 4:37 PM
FRAMBER VALDEZ (L) vs. SEAN MANAEA (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 7-3 (+3.9 Units) against HOUSTON this season
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.5 Units)

FRAMBER VALDEZ vs. OAKLAND since 1997
VALDEZ is 0-1 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 1.143.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

SEAN MANAEA vs. HOUSTON since 1997
MANAEA is 3-5 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 3.26 and a WHIP of 1.186.
His team's record is 4-9 (-4.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-7. (-2.6 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (33 - 29) vs. ATLANTA (37 - 25) - 2:08 PM
SANDY ALCANTARA (R) vs. MAX FRIED (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 136-93 (+21.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 119-72 (+37.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 12-3 (+8.6 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
ATLANTA is 175-121 (+41.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 59-41 (+17.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
FRIED is 33-9 (+19.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FRIED is 21-6 (+12.5 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FRIED is 18-3 (+14.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MIAMI is 33-29 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MIAMI is 21-19 (+9.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
ALCANTARA is 12-10 (+11.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ATLANTA is 35-47 (-24.8 Units) against the money line in playoff games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 6-4 (-0.2 Units) against MIAMI this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.7 Units)

SANDY ALCANTARA vs. ATLANTA since 1997
ALCANTARA is 0-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 2.41 and a WHIP of 1.125.
His team's record is 2-1 (+2.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.3 units)

MAX FRIED vs. MIAMI since 1997
FRIED is 0-1 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 5.13 and a WHIP of 1.633.
His team's record is 5-1 (+3.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-1. (+3.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (39 - 24) vs. LA DODGERS (45 - 17) - 9:38 PM
KYLE DAVIES (R) vs. WALKER BUEHLER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 28-13 (+12.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
SAN DIEGO is 46-34 (+29.3 Units) against the money line in road games after shutting out their opponent since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 6-4 (-0.3 Units) against SAN DIEGO this season
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.6 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)

KYLE DAVIES vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
DAVIES is 0-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 9.34 and a WHIP of 1.845.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

WALKER BUEHLER vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
BUEHLER is 4-0 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 1.36 and a WHIP of 0.727.
His team's record is 4-1 (+2.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-3. (-1.3 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------






MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up


Tuesday, October 6



Best-of-5 series


American League
Houston (1-0) vs Oakland (@ Los Angeles)

Valdez is 3-0, 0.98 in his last three starts.
— Astros are 7-4 in his starts, 4-2 on the road.
— Over is 7-2 in his last eight starts
— Valdez threw five shutout innings in his first playoff start LW.
— He is 0-1, 2.25 in three career games (1 start) vs Oakland.


— Houston won their first three playoff games.
— Astros are in the playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won the ’17 World Series.
— Houston is 12-23 on the road this season.
— Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games.


Manaea is 1-1, 3.50 in his last three starts.
— Oakland is 7-4 in his starts, 3-3 on the road.
— Over is 6-3 in his last nine starts.
— He allowed four runs in two IP in his first postseason start., in LY’s Wild Card game vs Tampa Bay
— Manaea is 3-5, 3.27 in 13 career starts vs Houston.


— A’s are 2-2 in the playoffs; they gave up four unearned runs in decisive 6th inning Monday.
— Oakland is in playoffs for 3rd year in row, 6th time in nine years.
— A’s are 14-15 on the road this season.
— Over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.


— A’s are 7-4 vs Houston this season.


New York (1-0) vs Tampa Bay (@ San Diego)
Garcia is 3-2, 5.24 in his first six MLB starts.
— New York is 4-2 in his starts, 1-2 on the road.
— Over is 4-1-1 in his starts this season.
— This is his first postseason start, his first start against the Rays.


— New York scored 31 runs in their first three playoff games.
— New York is in the playoffs for 4th year in a row.
— New York is 14-18 on the road this season.
— Over is 8-3 in their last 11 games.


Glasnow is
— Rays are 10-2 in his starts, 5-1 on the road.
— Over is 7-4-1 in his starts this season.
— Glasnow is 1-2, 5,54 in three career playoff starts.
— He is 1-2, 3.70 in five career starts vs New York.


— Tampa Bay won six of its last seven games overall.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 20-12 away from home this season.
— Under is 8-4 in their last 12 games.


— Tampa Bay won eight of 11 games with New York this season.


National League
Miami vs Atlanta (@ Houston)

Alcantara is 2-0, 2.25 in his last three starts.
— Marlins are 6-2 in his starts, 4-0 away from home.
— His last four starts went under the total.
— Alcantara allowed one run in 6.2 IP in his first playoff start, at Wrigley last week.
— He is 0-0, 2.41 in three career starts vs Atlanta.


— Marlins won five of their last six games; they allowed one run in their sweep of Chicago last week.
— Miami is in the playoffs for first time since 2003.
— Marlins are 20-14 away from home this season.
— Miami is 7-12 vs lefty starters this year.
— Five of their last six games stayed under the total.


Fried is 7-0, 1.99 in 12 starts this year; he was 0-0, 2.45 in two starts vs Miami.
— Braves are 11-1 in his starts, 5-0 away from home.
— Over is 6-3-1 in his last ten starts.
— Fried threw seven shutout innings in his first playoff start LW; he had given up five runs in six relief stints (6.1 IP) in previous years.
— He is 0-1, 5.13 in six career starts vs Miami.


— Braves won seven of last ten games; they didn’t allow a run in their sweep of Cincinnati last week.
— Atlanta is in the playoffs for third year in a row.
— Braves are 16-14 away from home.
— Over is 5-3 in Atlanta’s last eight games.


— Braves went 6-4 against Miami this season.


San Diego vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Davies is 0-2, 5.29 in his last four starts; he was 0-2, 3.46 vs LA this season.
— Padres are 9-4 in his starts, 5-2 away from home.
— Under is 7-6 in his starts, 3-4 on road.
— Davies allowed four runs in three IP in two playoff games (1 start).
— He is 3-3, 2.37 in eight career starts against the Dodgers.


— San Diego won five of its last six games.
— Padres are in playoffs for first time since 2006.
— San Diego is 16-12 away from home.
— Over is 4-2-1 in their last seven games.


Buehler is 0-0, 4.02 in his last four starts.
— Dodgers are 8-1 in his starts, 3-1 away from home.
— Under is 6-3 in his starts, 4-1 in his last five.
— He is 4-0, 1.36 in five career starts vs San Diego.
— Buehler is 1-1, 2.90 in seven career playoff starts.


— Dodgers are 45-17 this year; they won their last six games.
— LA is in playoffs for 8th year in a row; they haven’t won a World Series since 1988.
— Los Angeles is 22-8 away from home.
— Under is 6-3-1 in their last ten games.


— Dodgers are 6-4 vs San Diego this season.








MLB

Tuesday, October 6


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Miami @ Atlanta
Miami
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami


Houston @ Oakland
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 13 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Houston's last 16 games
Oakland
Oakland is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Houston
Oakland is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing Houston


NY Yankees @ Tampa Bay
NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 7 of NY Yankees's last 8 games on the road
NY Yankees is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home


San Diego @ LA Dodgers
San Diego
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
San Diego is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
 

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NL Divisional Series Cheat Sheet
Kevin Rogers


The Wild Card round is over as the 16-team field has been sliced in half to eight squads seeking a World Series title. No team will have home-field advantage the rest of the way as the four remaining series will be played at neutral sites in California and Texas.


The divisional playoff round in the National League will take place in Arlington and Houston. NL East rivals Atlanta and Miami will square off at Minute Maid Park, while NL West foes Los Angeles and San Diego hook up at Globe Life Park.


#1 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. #4 San Diego Padres
at Globe Life Park, Arlington



LAD: 45-17 SU, 27-28-7 O/U
SD: 39-24 SU, 30-31-2 O/U


Series Price


Los Angeles -280
San Diego +240


Series Schedule


Game 1 - Tuesday, Oct. 6 - 9:38 p.m. ET (FS1)
Game 2 - Wednesday, Oct. 7 - TBD (FS1 or MLB)
Game 3 - Thursday, Oct. 8 - (FS1 or MLB)
Game 4 - Friday, Oct. 9 - (If Necessary)
Game 5 - Saturday, Oct. 10 - (If Necessary)


The Dodgers owned the best fifth winning percentage in a season in Major League history at .717 and didn't disappoint in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Los Angeles easily eliminated Milwaukee in two games, capped off by a 2-0 shutout in the clinching contest. Clayton Kershaw delivered eight shutout innings and struck out 13 batters as the three-time Cy Young winner is returning to elite form with the Dodgers winning eight of his last nine starts.


The Padres were one of two teams pushed to three games in the Wild Card round (Athletics the other). San Diego overcame a loss in the opener and a 4-0 deficit in Game 2 to beat St. Louis, 11-9 to force a decisive third game at Petco Park. The Padres used nine pitchers to pull off a 4-0 shutout of the Cardinals in Game 3 and win a playoff series for the first time since capturing the 1998 National League pennant.


Padres' star shortstop Fernando Tatis, Jr. hit .444 against the Cardinals, including two monster home runs in the Game 2 comeback win. San Diego's pitching staff is still depleted heading into the NLDS with in-season acquisition Mike Clevinger dealing with an arm injury. Clevinger (3-2, 3.02 ERA) hopes to return against the Dodgers, while Dinelson Lamet (3-1, 2.09 ERA) is sidelined with a biceps injury.


The Dodgers are obviously the team to beat this postseason although Los Angeles has won eight straight NL West titles and has not captured a World Series title in this span. L.A. has lost three times in the NLDS since 2014, including an exit in this round last season in five games to eventual champion Washington.


These two NL West squads have never faced each other in the playoffs, as the Padres are only the second division opponent the Dodgers have ever played in the postseason (swept Arizona in 2017 NLDS). Los Angeles won six of 10 regular season meetings with San Diego, while the Padres were limited to two runs or fewer in four of the six defeats.




#2 Atlanta Braves vs. #6 Miami Marlins
at Minute Maid Park - Houston



ATL: 37-25 SU, 32-25-5 O/U
MIA: 33-29 SU, 32-29-1 O/U


Series Price


Atlanta -300
Miami +250


Series Schedule


Game 1 - Tuesday, Oct. 6 - 2:38 p.m. ET (FS1)
Game 2 - Wednesday, Oct. 7 - TBD (FS1 or MLB)
Game 3 - Thursday, Oct. 8 - (FS1 or MLB)
Game 4 - Friday, Oct. 9 - (If Necessary)
Game 5 - Saturday, Oct. 10 - (If Necessary)


It's no surprise the Braves are in the NLDS, although it is Atlanta's first postseason series victory since 2001 after knocking out light-hitting Cincinnati in two games of the Wild Card round. However, Miami continued its shocking run to the Divisional Round after picking up a pair of road wins over NL Central champion Chicago.

The Braves have dealt with plenty of injuries to their starting pitching staff this season, but Atlanta shut out Cincinnati in a pair of wins in the Wild Card round over a 22-inning span. Following a 1-0 triumph in 13 innings of the series opener, the Braves broke out the bats late in a 5-0 blanking of the Reds to secure the franchise's first advancement in the playoffs in nearly 20 years.


The Marlins weren't expected to do much in the competitive NL East this season, then things got complicated when a COVID-19 outbreak happened less than a week into the season. But Miami overcame that issue and basically stayed above the .500 mark for most of the season to clinch a playoff berth for the first time since winning the World Series in 2003. The Marlins limited the Cubs to one run in a two-game sweep at Wrigley Field to improve to 5-1 in their last six games overall with all five victories coming as a substantial underdog.


On their way to their first-ever championship in 1997, the Marlins knocked off the Braves in the NLCS in the only playoff matchup in franchise history. Atlanta put together a 6-4 record against Miami this season, which included taking three of four at Truist Park late in the season. The Braves dropped 29 runs on the Marlins in a 20-run blowout on September 9, but the 'under' went 5-4-1 in the 10 meetings.
 

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TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS



MIA at ATL 02:08 PM
MIA +167
U 8.0

+500 +500


HOU at OAK 04:37 PM
OAK -110
O 9.0

+500 +500


NYY at TB 08:10 PM
NYY -105
O 8.0

+500 +500


SD at LAD 09:38 PM
LAD -165
O 8.5

+500 +500
 

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MLB
Dunkel

Tuesday, October 6


Miami @ Atlanta

Game 909-910
October 6, 2020 @ 2:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
(Alcantara) 17.487
Atlanta
(Fried) 16.319
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
-200
8
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+170); Over

Houston @ Oakland


Game 907-908
October 6, 2020 @ 4:37 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(Valdez) 16.289
Oakland
(Manaea) 13.781
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 2 1/2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
-115
9
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-105); Over

NY Yankees @ Tampa Bay


Game 905-906
October 6, 2020 @ 8:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Yankees
(Garcia) 17.827
Tampa Bay
(Glasnow) 16.319
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-125
8
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(+105); Under

San Diego @ LA Dodgers


Game 911-912
October 6, 2020 @ 9:38 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
(TBD) 15.839
LA Dodgers
(Buehler) 18.250
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 2 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-155
8
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-155); Under
 

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RECORD THRU THE WORLS SERIES:




DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


10/06/2020 2-6-0 25.00% -2225 Detail


10/05/2020 0-4-0 0.00% -2325 Detail

10/02/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -725 Detail


10/01/2020 1-5-0 16.67% -2100 Detail



09/30/2020 9-7-0 56.25% +900 Detail


09/29/2020 2-6-0 25.00% -2525 Detail



TOTALS....15-31-0 32.60% 90.00
 

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Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack


Six interesting spreads for college games this weekend:
— Oklahoma (-2) @ Texas
— Florida (-7) @ Texas A&M
— Tennessee @ Georgia (-13.5)
— Texas Tech @ Iowa State (-13)
— Mississippi State @ Kentucky (-3)
— Miami @ Clemson (-15)


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 210,616
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.




**********


Armadillo: Wednesday's Den: Mid-week musings…….


13) Once in a while it is good to talk about nice things that people do; when the Houston Rockets got eliminated from the NBA playoffs and left the Orlando bubble, Russell Westbrook left an $8,000 tip for the staff at the Grand Floridian Hotel where the Rockets stayed for two months.


12) Green Bay Packers have been very impressive in their 4-0 start:
— They’re scoring 38 ppg (17 TDs on 35 drives)
— Green Bay has gone 3/out once on those 35 drives. Once.
— Packers haven’t turned the ball over yet.
— Green Bay has converted 23-45 third down plays.


11) We’ll talk more later in the season about 3-and-outs and their importance in determining good field position, but so far this season, NFL teams that won field position by 10+ yards are 23-1 SU in those games, the only loss Atlanta’s 40-39 debacle in Dallas.


10) Dak Prescott is the first NFL player ever to throw 200+ passes in the first four games of a season- he’s thrown 201. Previous record holder was Drew Brees in 2012 (191).


9) There is a very funny TV commercial that Dr Pepper runs during college football games; people are watching a game on TV outdoors on a patio, kicker comes in to kick the winning field goal, and a guy says how the kicker is doing great and “can’t miss” so of course, he misses.


Next thing, you see the guy in the back of a police car, arrested for jinxing the home team, with Brian Bosworth the arresting officer. Good stuff.


8) Kansas City Chiefs are rolling at 4-0, but they’ve missed a PAT in three straight games; when the weather gets colder and the playoffs get closer, that needs to be cleaned up.


7) Get well soon to Bobby Bowden, 90; the great football coach at Florida State tested positive for COVID after he had an infection in his leg. Get well soon, coach.


6) Lakers’ guard Alex Caruso skipped his sister’s wedding so he could stay in the NBA bubble and keep playing for the Lakers. Hopefully he upgraded the gift he gave to her.


5) Lakers 102, Miami 96 (LA leads 3-1):
— Heat’s bench shot a combined 4-18 from the floor.
— Miami was +11 in the 6:00 Anthony Davis didn’t play.


4) Atlanta 9, Miami 5: (Braves lead 1-0)
— Braves scored six times in the bottom of the 7th.
— d’Arnaud went 3-3, knocked in four runs.
— Marlins made 174 roster moves during this chaotic, 60-game season.


3) Los Angeles 5, San Diego 1 (LA leads 1-0)
— Dodgers didn’t get a hit until the sixth inning.
— San Diego manager Tingler was tossed in 6th inning for voicing his complaints about the umpire’s strike zone.


2) Houston 5, A’s 2 (Astros lead 2-0)
— Springer hit two homers, knocked in three runs.
— Oakland hit two homers, didn’t get anyone else in scoring position.


1) Tampa Bay 7, New York 5 (series 1-1)
— Rays hit four home runs, evened the series.
— Glasnow struck out 10 guys in five innings, got the win.
— Stanton hit two homers for New York.
 

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MLB public betting, line movement for October 7
Patrick Everson


Randy Arozarena and the Rays meet the Yankees in Game 3 of the ALDS on Wednesday night. Caesars sportsbooks opened New York a -122 favorite, with Tampa Bay a +112 underdog.


MLB betting odds are on the board for Wednesday’s schedule, with all eight contestants on the field in the ALDS and NLDS. The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees are knotted up heading to Game 3, while the defending AL champion Houston Astros go for a sweep of the Oakland Athletics.


Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Wednesday’s games.

MLB line movement


Tampa Bay bounced back from a 9-3 drubbing in Game 1 to beat New York 7-5 Tuesday and tie the best-of-five ALDS at a game apiece. Game 3, with a 7:10 p.m. ET start, opened at Yankees -122/Rays +112 late Tuesday night, with no early line movement.


Houston notched a 5-2 victory Tuesday to take a 2-0 series lead and can eliminate Oakland in a 3:35 p.m. ET first pitch. Caesars books opened Game 3 at Astros -115/A’s +105 and made the smallest possible move Tuesday night, to -116/+106.


The Los Angeles Dodgers send ace Clayton Kershaw out for Game 2 of their NLDS against the San Diego Padres. In Game 1 Tuesday, the Dodgers broke a 1-1 tie with four runs in the sixth inning and made those runs stand up in a 5-1 victory. With that game ending late, most sportsbooks didn’t post the Game 2 line Tuesday night, so check back for updates on this 9:08 p.m. ET contest.


The baseball day begins at 2:08 p.m. ET, with Game 2 of the Miami Marlins-Atlanta Braves NLDS. In Game 1, Atlanta exploded for six runs in the seventh inning en route to a 9-5 victory. The Braves opened -200 at Caesars for Game 2, with Miami +180, and there was no movement Tuesday night.


MLB public betting


The Consensus is often indicative of public opinion, and in a limited sample late Monday night, the Yankees were getting 80 percent of early picks for Game 3 against the Rays. The Astros were landing 69 percent of early Consensus picks against the A’s, and the Braves were drawing 61 percent of early picks against the Marlins.




*************************************




MLB
Dunkel


Wednesday, October 7


Miami @ Atlanta


Game 917-918
October 7, 2020 @ 2:08 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Miami
(Lopez) 17.262
Atlanta
(Anderson) 16.195
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 1
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
-200
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+170); Over


Oakland @ Houston



Game 915-916
October 7, 2020 @ 3:35 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
(Luzardo) 16.438
Houston
(Urquidy) 14.932
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-125
9
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+105); Under


Tampa Bay @ NY Yankees



Game 913-914
October 7, 2020 @ 7:10 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Morton) 17.977
NY Yankees
(Tanaka) 16.170
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-125
9
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+105); Over


San Diego @ LA Dodgers



Game 919-920
October 7, 2020 @ 9:08 pm


Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
(TBD) 15.760
LA Dodgers
(Kershaw) 18.328
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 2 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
N/A








MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up


Wednesday, October 7



Best-of-5 series


Miami vs Atlanta (1-0) (@ Houston)

Lopez is 3-0, 1.56 in his last three starts; he is 2-1, 5.52 vs Atlanta this year.
— Marlins are 6-5 in his starts, 3-3 away from home.
— Over is 6-4-1 in his starts this year.
— This will be his first playoff appearance.
— Lopez is 2-4, 4.43 in eight career starts vs Atlanta.


— Marlins won five of their last seven games.
— Miami is in the playoffs for first time since 2003.
— Marlins are 20-15 away from home this season.
— Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.


Anderson is 4-2, 2.35 in his first seven MLB starts.
— Braves are 4-3 in his starts, 2-1 away from home.
— Under is 4-1-2 in his starts this year.
— He threw six shutout innings against the Reds in LW’s playoff series.
— Anderson is 0-1, 4.15 in two career starts vs Miami.


— Braves won eight of their last 11 games.
— Atlanta is in the playoffs for third year in a row.
— Braves are 17-14 away from home.
— Over is 6-3 in Atlanta’s last eight games.


— Braves are 7-4 against Miami this season.


Houston (1-0) vs Oakland (@ Los Angeles)
Urquidy is 1-1, 2.65 in six starts this season.
— Astros are 3-3 in his starts, 1-3 on the road.
— Under is 4-1-1 in his starts
— Urquidy is 1-0, 1.26 in five playoff games (2 starts)
— He is 0-1, 2.45 in two career starts vs Oakland.


— Houston won their first four playoff games.
— Astros are in the playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won the ’17 World Series.
— Houston is 13-23 on the road this season, but won four in row on road.
— Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games.


Luzardo is 1-1, 3.86 in his last four starts.
— Oakland is 6-4 in his starts, 1-2 on the road.
— Under is 6-1 in his last seven starts.
— He allowed three runs in 3.1 IP in his first postseason start, in LY’s Wild Card game vs Chicago
— Luzardo is 1-0, 2.84 in two career starts vs Houston.


— A’s are 2-3 in the playoffs; need a win here to keep the season going.
— Oakland is in playoffs for 3rd year in row, 6th time in nine years.
— A’s are 14-16 on the road this season.
— Over is 5-2-1 in their last seven games.


— A’s are 7-5 vs Houston this season, 0-2 this week.


New York (1-1) vs Tampa Bay (@ San Diego)
Tanaka is 2-2, 6.75 in his last five starts; he is 1-1, 4.80 in three starts vs Tampa.
— New York is 6-5 in his starts, 1-4 on the road.
— Over is 4-0 in his last four starts.
— He is 5-3, 2.70 in nine postseason starts.
— Tanaka is 11-5, 3.31 in 21 career starts vs Tampa Bay.


— New York scored 36 runs in their first four playoff games.
— New York is in the playoffs for 4th year in a row.
— New York is 14-19 on the road this season.
— Over is 9-3 in their last 12 games.


Morton is 2-1, 5.03 in his last four starts, 0-0, 2.25 in two starts vs NY.
— Rays are 5-4 in his starts, 2-2 on the road.
— Under is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
— Morton is 4-2, 3.70 in nine career playoff games (8 starts).
— He is 4-3, 3.83 in ten career starts vs New York.


— Tampa Bay won seven of its last eight games overall.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 21-12 away from home this season.
— Under is 8-5 in their last 13 games.


— Tampa Bay won nine of 12 games with New York this season.


San Diego vs Los Angeles (1-0) (@ Arlington)
Davies is 0-2, 5.29 in his last four starts; he was 0-2, 3.46 vs LA this season.
— Padres are 9-4 in his starts, 5-2 away from home.
— Under is 7-6 in his starts, 3-4 on road.
— Davies allowed four runs in three IP in two playoff games (1 start).
— He is 3-3, 2.37 in eight career starts against the Dodgers.


— San Diego won five of its last seven games.
— Padres are in playoffs for first time since 2006.
— San Diego is 16-13 away from home.
— Over is 4-3-1 in their last eight games.


Kershaw is 2-1, 2.84 in his last four starts.
— Dodgers are 8-2 in his starts, 5-1 away from home.
— Under is 5-5 in his starts, 3-3 on the road.
— He is 21-7, 2.03 in 40 career starts vs San Diego.
— Kershaw is 10-11, 4.22 in 33 career playoff games (26 starts).


— Dodgers are 46-17 this year; they won their last seven games.
— LA is in playoffs for 8th year in a row; they haven’t won a World Series since 1988.
— Los Angeles is 23-8 away from home.
— Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games.


— Dodgers are 7-4 vs San Diego this season.








MLB

Wednesday, October 7


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Miami @ Atlanta
Miami
Miami is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Miami's last 18 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami


Oakland @ Houston
Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing Houston
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games at home
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland


Tampa Bay @ NY Yankees
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tampa Bay's last 11 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games
NY Yankees is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home


San Diego @ LA Dodgers
San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
San Diego is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games




-------------------------------------------------------------------




MLB
Long Sheet


Wednesday, October 7



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TAMPA BAY (43 - 21) vs. NY YANKEES (36 - 28) - 7:10 PM
CHARLIE MORTON (R) vs. MASAHIRO TANAKA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 43-21 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 33-13 (+16.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 144-85 (+38.1 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 16-5 (+11.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NY YANKEES are 9-13 (-9.8 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents this season.
NY YANKEES are 43-43 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 10-18 (-15.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 9-3 (+7.5 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)

CHARLIE MORTON vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
MORTON is 5-3 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.32 and a WHIP of 1.210.
His team's record is 7-5 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 8-4. (+3.8 units)

MASAHIRO TANAKA vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
TANAKA is 11-5 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.31 and a WHIP of 0.921.
His team's record is 14-7 (+6.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 11-10. (+0.4 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (38 - 27) vs. HOUSTON (33 - 31) - 3:35 PM
JESUS LUZARDO (L) vs. JOSE URQUIDY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 134-92 (+24.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 153-116 (+26.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 93-58 (+36.3 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 51-36 (+20.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 55-42 (-16.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 15-20 (-22.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 7-15 (-11.5 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 7-5 (+1.6 Units) against HOUSTON this season
8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.4 Units)

JESUS LUZARDO vs. HOUSTON since 1997
LUZARDO is 1-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 2.84 and a WHIP of 0.947.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

JOSE URQUIDY vs. OAKLAND since 1997
URQUIDY is 0-1 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 2.45 and a WHIP of 0.636.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (33 - 30) vs. ATLANTA (38 - 25) - 2:08 PM
PABLO LOPEZ (R) vs. IAN ANDERSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 137-93 (+22.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 120-72 (+38.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 13-3 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
ATLANTA is 176-121 (+42.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 60-41 (+18.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 33-30 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MIAMI is 21-20 (+8.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
MIAMI is 26-17 (+18.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
MIAMI is 9-5 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 7-4 (+0.9 Units) against MIAMI this season
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.3 Units)

PABLO LOPEZ vs. ATLANTA since 1997
LOPEZ is 2-4 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 4.43 and a WHIP of 1.352.
His team's record is 2-6 (-3.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-4. (-0.4 units)

IAN ANDERSON vs. MIAMI since 1997
ANDERSON is 0-1 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 1.04 and a WHIP of 1.499.
His team's record is 0-2 (-4.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (39 - 25) vs. LA DODGERS (46 - 17) - 9:08 PM
ZACH DAVIES (R) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 7-4 (+0.8 Units) against SAN DIEGO this season
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)

ZACH DAVIES vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
DAVIES is 3-3 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 2.37 and a WHIP of 1.054.
His team's record is 3-5 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-7. (-7.1 units)


CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
KERSHAW is 21-7 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 2.03 and a WHIP of 0.977.
His team's record is 30-10 (+10.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 23-17. (+5.2 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------




913TAMPA BAY -914 NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 66-55 SU (5.5 Units) when the money line is -100 to -150 in the last 3 seasons.


915OAKLAND -916 HOUSTON
OAKLAND is 3-11 SU (-10.3 Units) in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start in the current season.


917MIAMI -918 ATLANTA
MIAMI is 22-8 SU (11.6 Units) in road games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.


919SAN DIEGO -920 LA DODGERS
SAN DIEGO is 10-22 SU (-14.2 Units) in road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games in the last 3 seasons.
 

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WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 7


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS



MIA at ATL 02:08 PM
MIA +180
U 8.5



OAK at HOU 03:35 PM
HOU -105
U 9.0
 

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RECORD THRU THE WORLS SERIES:


DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD



10/07/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1075 Detail


10/06/2020 2-6-0 25.00% -2225 Detail


10/05/2020 0-4-0 0.00% -2325 Detail


10/02/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -725 Detail


10/01/2020 1-5-0 16.67% -2100 Detail


09/30/2020 9-7-0 56.25% +900 Detail


09/29/2020 2-6-0 25.00% -2525 Detail


TOTALS....16-34-0 32.00% -100.75
 

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Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack


NFL leaders in receiving yards:
403— Stefan Diggs Buff, DK Metcalf, Sea
401— Amari Cooper, Dal
397— DeAndre Hopkins, Ariz
387— Terry McLaurin, Wash
377— Robby Anderson, Car
349— Calvin Ridley, Atl


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 211,513
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.




**********


Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….


13) Atlanta 2, Miami 0: (Braves lead 2-0)
— Rookie Anderson (from Albany area) tossed 5.2 scoreless innings.
— d’Arnaud, Swanson homered for the Braves.
— There were only seven hits total in this game.


12) Los Angeles 6, San Diego 5 (LA leads 2-0)
— Seager went 3-4, scored twice, knocked in two runs.
— Bellinger made a great catch, robbing Tatis of a HR in centerfield.
— First four guys in LA’s lineup went 7-15.


11) A’s 9, Houston 7 (Astros lead 2-1)
— Pinder tied game with a 3-run tater in 7th inning.
— Diekman/Hendriks shut Astros out over last 4.1 innings.
— Altuve had three hits, is starting to look like his old self.


10) Tampa Bay 8, New York 4 (Rays lead 2-1)
— Wendle, Arozarena had three hits each for Tampa Bay.
— Rays’ #8-9 hitters knocked in three runs each.
— Stanton hit two another homer for New York.


9) Tennessee Titans still aren’t practicing; Friday is the earliest their facility can open, as they struggle to escape the grip of COVID. Titans are supposed to play Buffalo Sunday; I’m thinking we’ll find out about a possible Week 18 being added to the regular season this weekend, with the extra week before the Super Bowl being removed to make room for it.


8) New England CB Stephon Gilmore tested positive for COVID, now the Patriots’ facility is closed until further notice- they’re supposed to host Denver Sunday.


7) New Orleans Saints have allowed 244 yards on pass interference penalties this year; no other team has allowed more than 100.


6) Not sure what I think about the cameras that are in the bases at the ballgames shown by Turner Sports this week. They’re not as good as pylon cameras at football games, that’s for sure.


Whoever suggested to put a camera in the pylons deserved a big promotion.


5) Jets will start Joe Flacco at QB this week; Sam Darnold has a banged-up shoulder. Jets lost the last six games Darnold didn’t start.


Washington benched Dwayne Haskins, will start Kyle Allen at QB this week.


4) Saturday’s LSU-Missouri football game with was switched from Baton Rouge to Columbia because of the big storm hitting Louisiana this weekend.


3) NHL is talking about starting next season January 1st. NBA is talking about mid-January; MLK Day sounds like a good starting point.


2) Get well soon to Indians manager Terry Francona, who underwent several surgeries in a four-day span and required an extended stay in intensive care at the Cleveland Clinic while dealing with medical issues that sidelined him for 46 of Cleveland’s 60 games this season.


The 61-year-old Francona plans to return to Cleveland in 2021; I hope he does.


1) Lot of yapping in the Padres-Dodgers series; I know people want the players to show their personalities more, but this showboating after home runs has gone up a lot, and it increases tensions, especially in playoff games. Someone’s going to get drilled pretty soon, and there aren’t supposed to be any fights in the COVID era.


When Cody Bellinger made that great catch last night, in the 6th inning, the pitcher threw his glove with joy and was pounding his chest like he just hit the lottery, as teams exchanged pleasantries from across the diamond.


I know I’ll sound like a miserable older guy here, but put a lid on it until the game is over, then be as happy as you want.
 

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MLB public betting, line movement for October 8
Patrick Everson


Giancarlo Stanton and the Yankees need a win in Thursday's Game 4 to extend the ALDS against the Rays. Caesars sportsbooks opened New York a -117 favorite, with Tampa Bay +107.


MLB betting odds are on the board for Thursday’s schedule, with all eight contestants again on the field in the ALDS and NLDS. The Tampa Bay Rays can take command against the New York Yankees in Game 4, while the Los Angeles Dodgers go for a three-game sweep of the San Diego Padres.


Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Thursday’s games.


MLB line movement


Tampa Bay took the upper hand against New York with an 8-4 victory Wednesday to grab a 2-1 lead in the best-of-five series. Caesars books opened Game 4 at Yankees -117/Rays +107, and there was no movement through Wednesday night for this 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch.


Los Angeles held on for a 6-5 victory over San Diego on Wednesday night, taking a 2-0 NLDS lead and looking for a sweep in a 9:08 p.m. ET start tonight. With the late-night finish of Game 2, most sportsbooks held off on posting the Game 3 line Wednesday, so check back for updates.


The Oakland A’s climbed into their series against the Houston Astros, and not a moment too soon, winning a 9-7 shootout in Game 3 to pull within 2-1 in the ALDS. With Houston’s starter not set by late Wednesday night, the line for Thursday’s 3:35 p.m. ET contest wasn’t yet on the board.


Back in the NLDS, the Atlanta Braves can finish off the Miami Marlins in three games with a victory in a 2:08 p.m. ET clash. The Braves took a 2-0 series lead with a 2-0 victory Wednesday, and Caesars installed Atlanta as a -135 favorite for Game 3, with Miami +125.


MLB public betting


The Consensus, often a good measure of where the public stands, showed the Yankees getting 65 percent of picks through Wednesday night. Braves-Marlins was a little closer to two-way play, with an early lean to the underdog, as Miami was landing 57 percent of picks.
 

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up


Thursday, October 8



Best-of-5 series


Miami vs Atlanta (2-0) (@ Houston)

Rookie Sanchez is 4-2, 3.07 in his first eight MLB starts.
— Marlins are 4-4 in his starts, 3-1 away from home.
— Under is 6-2 in his starts this year.
— Sanchez tossed five shutout innings in his first playoff start.
— Sanche is 1-0, 4.00 in two starts vs Atlanta.


— Marlins won five of their last eight games.
— Miami is in the playoffs for first time since 2003.
— Marlins are 20-16 away from home this season.
— Six of their last eight games stayed under the total.


Wright is 2-0, 2.84 in his last three starts; he is 0-2, 9.00 vs Miami this year.
— Braves are 4-4 in his starts, 2-3 away from home.
— Under is 5-3 in his starts this year.
— This will be his first playoff appearance.
— Wright is 0-2, 6.93 in three career starts vs Miami.


— Braves won nine of their last 12 games.
— Atlanta is in the playoffs for third year in a row.
— Braves are 18-14 away from home.
— Over is 6-4 in Atlanta’s last ten games.


— Braves are 8-4 against Miami this season.


Houston (2-1) vs Oakland (@ Los Angeles)
Javier is 3-1, 3.67 in his last five starts.
— Astros are 7-3 in his starts, 3-2 on the road.
— Under is 3-1 in his last five starts
— Javier threw four shutout innings in two playoff appearances.
— He is 0-2, 9.00 in three games (2 starts) vs Oakland.


— Houston won four of their first five playoff games.
— Astros are in the playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won the ’17 World Series.
— Houston is 13-24 on the road this season.
— Under is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games.


Montas is 2-2, 5.76 in his last four starts.
— Oakland is 6-5 in his starts, 1-4 on the road.
— Over is 4-1-2 in his last seven starts.
— He allowed one run in two IP in his first postseason appearance.
— Montas is 4-3, 4.50 in nine career games (7 starts) vs Houston.


— A’s are 3-3 in the playoffs; need a win here to keep the season going.
— Oakland is in playoffs for 3rd year in row, 6th time in nine years.
— A’s are 15-16 on the road this season.
— Over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.


— A’s are 8-5 vs Houston this season, 1-2 this week.


New York vs Tampa Bay (2-1) (@ San Diego)
Montgomery is 0-1, 4.74 in his last four starts.
— New York is 6-4 in his starts, 1-3 on the road.
— Under is 6-4 in his starts.
— This is his first postseason start.
— Montgomery is 1-2, 5.14 in six career starts vs Tampa Bay.


— New York scored 40 runs in their first five playoff games.
— New York is in the playoffs for 4th year in a row.
— New York is 14-20 on the road this season.
— Over is 10-3 in their last 13 games.


Bullpen game for Tampa Bay


— Tampa Bay won eight of its last nine games overall.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 22-12 away from home this season.
— Under is 8-6 in their last 14 games.


— Tampa Bay won 10 of 13 games with New York this season.


San Diego vs Los Angeles (2-0) (@ Arlington)
Bullpen game for both sides


— San Diego won five of its last eight games.
— Padres are in playoffs for first time since 2006.
— San Diego is 16-14 away from home.
— Over is 5-3-1 in their last nine games.


Bullpen game for both sides


— Dodgers are 47-17 this year; they won their last eight games.
— LA is in playoffs for 8th year in a row; they haven’t won a World Series since 1988.
— Los Angeles is 24-8 away from home.
— Under is 7-4-1 in their last 12 games.


— Dodgers are 7-4 vs San Diego this season.
 

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MLB

Thursday, October 8


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Atlanta @ Miami
Atlanta
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta


Oakland @ Houston
Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games
Oakland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games


Tampa Bay @ NY Yankees
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Tampa Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games
NY Yankees is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home


LA Dodgers @ San Diego
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
LA Dodgers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Diego
San Diego
San Diego is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
San Diego is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games at home




----------------------------------------------------




921ATLANTA -922 MIAMI
MIAMI is 22-9 SU (10.4 Units) in road games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.


923OAKLAND -924 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 23-34 SU (-14.9 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.


925TAMPA BAY -926 NY YANKEES
TAMPA BAY is 16-4 SU (11.6 Units) in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games in the current season.


927LA DODGERS -928 SAN DIEGO
LA DODGERS are 10-1 SU (8.9 Units) when playing on Thursday in the current season.


------------------------------------------




MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 8



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


ATLANTA (39 - 25) vs. MIAMI (33 - 31) - 2:08 PM
KYLE WRIGHT (R) vs. SIXTO SANCHEZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 33-31 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MIAMI is 26-18 (+17.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ATLANTA is 138-93 (+23.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 121-72 (+39.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 14-3 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
ATLANTA is 177-121 (+43.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 61-41 (+19.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 8-4 (+1.9 Units) against MIAMI this season
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.7 Units)

KYLE WRIGHT vs. MIAMI since 1997
WRIGHT is 0-2 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 6.92 and a WHIP of 1.769.
His team's record is 0-3 (-3.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

SIXTO SANCHEZ vs. ATLANTA since 1997
SANCHEZ is 1-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 4.00 and a WHIP of 1.333.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


OAKLAND (39 - 27) vs. HOUSTON (33 - 32) - 3:35 PM
FRANKIE MONTAS (R) vs. CRISTIAN JAVIER (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 8-5 (+2.6 Units) against HOUSTON this season
8 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.3 Units)

FRANKIE MONTAS vs. HOUSTON since 1997
MONTAS is 4-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 3.55 and a WHIP of 1.369.
His team's record is 4-3 (+2.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-5. (-3.5 units)

CRISTIAN JAVIER vs. OAKLAND since 1997
JAVIER is 0-2 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 7.88 and a WHIP of 1.375.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (44 - 21) vs. NY YANKEES (36 - 29) - 7:10 PM
RYAN THOMPSON (R) vs. JORDAN MONTGOMERY (L)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 44-21 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 31-14 (+10.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
TAMPA BAY is 28-14 (+9.4 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
TAMPA BAY is 17-5 (+12.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NY YANKEES are 9-14 (-11.1 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents this season.
NY YANKEES are 43-44 (-15.7 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 10-19 (-16.7 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
NY YANKEES are 13-16 (-9.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 10-3 (+8.7 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
8 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.8 Units)

RYAN THOMPSON vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
THOMPSON is 0-0 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.500.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

JORDAN MONTGOMERY vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
MONTGOMERY is 1-2 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 5.14 and a WHIP of 1.761.
His team's record is 3-3 (-0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.4 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA DODGERS (47 - 17) vs. SAN DIEGO (39 - 26) - 9:08 PM
JULIO URIAS (L) vs. ADRIAN MOREJON (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 8-4 (+1.8 Units) against SAN DIEGO this season
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.7 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)

JULIO URIAS vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
URIAS is 1-0 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 2.46 and a WHIP of 0.819.
His team's record is 2-1 (-0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

ADRIAN MOREJON vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
MOREJON is 0-1 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)



-------------------------------------------




MLB
Dunkel

Thursday, October 8


Atlanta @ Miami


Game 921-922
October 8, 2020 @ 2:08 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Wright) 17.328
Miami
(Sanchez) 14.848
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 2 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
-135
9
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-135); Under


Oakland @ Houston



Game 923-924
October 8, 2020 @ 3:35 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
(Montas) 15.931
Houston
(TBD) 14.874
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 1
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-115
9
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-105); Over


Tampa Bay @ NY Yankees



Game 925-926
October 8, 2020 @ 7:10 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Thompson) 18.296
NY Yankees
(Montgmery) 15.851
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2 1/2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-140
9
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+120); Over


LA Dodgers @ San Diego



Game 927-928
October 8, 2020 @ 9:08 pm


Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(TBD) 15.737
San Diego
(Morejon) 17.352
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-210
9
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+180); Under
 

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THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS



ATL at MIA 02:08 PM
MIA +110
U 9.0

+500 +500


TB at NYY 07:10 PM
TB +110
U 9.0

+500 +500
 

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Messages
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THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS



OAK at HOU 03:35 PM
HOU -110
O 9.0

+500 +500


LAD at SD 09:08 PM
SD +155
U 9.0

+500 +500
 

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Messages
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Armadillo: Friday's six-pack


NFL leaders in scoring (thru four weeks):
46— Randy Bullock, Cin
45— Rodrigo Blankenship, Ind
42— Alvin Kamara, NO; Dalvin Cook, Minn
40— Mason Crosby, GB
39— Daniel Carlson, LV
38— Justin Tucker, Balt


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 212,420
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.




**********


Armadillo: Friday's Den: Wrapping up a busy Thursday


13) Chicago 20, Tampa Bay 19:
— Tampa Bay scored 23-19 points in their losses, 31-28-38 in its wins.
— Buccaneers outgained Chicago 339-243.
— When Brady threw an incompletion on 4th down on Tampa’s last drive, he didn’t know it was 4th down. Surprising thing to see.


— Santos kicked a 38-yard FG with 1:13 left for the win.
— Chicago has won four of its first five games, their best start since 2012. 
— Bears are 14-3-1 ATS in last 18 games as a home underdog.


12) Atlanta 7, Miami 0: (Braves win 3-0)
— Braves have thrown four shutouts in five playoff games.
— Travis d’Arnaud had two more RBI for Atlanta, which makes the NLCS for first time since 2001.
— Excellent season for Miami, which shocked the world by making the playoffs.


11) Los Angeles 12, San Diego 3 (LA wins 3-0)
— Padres were up against it here, with Clevinger/Lamet both hurt coming in.
— Dodgers broke it open with five runs in third inning.
— Will Smith had five hits, scored three times of LA.


10) Houston 11, A’s 4 (Astros win 3-1)
— Brantley scored three runs, knocked in three more.
— Correa went 3-4 with five RBI.
— Astros are in their 4th consecutive ALCS.


9) New York 5, Tampa Bay 1 (series 2-2)
— Bronx bullpen threw five shutout innings in relief of Montgomery.
— Gleyber Torres scored two runs, knocked in two more.
— Decisive Game 5 is tonight in San Diego.


8) Sunday’s Denver-New England game was moved to 5pm Monday, first half of a Monday night twinbill with Chargers-Saints.


Buffalo-Tennessee has been moved from Sunday to 7pm Tuesday, assuming the Titans get healthier.
If the Buffalo-Tennessee game is played Tuesday, then the Week 6 Bills-Chiefs game gets pushed back from Thursday night to Sunday afternoon.


7) Houston 49, Tulane 31— Not often a team playing its season opener opposes a team playing its 4th game of the year, but welcome to 2020.


Tulane scored two defensive TD’s in the first 6:00 of this game, but wound up getting run off the field by Houston’s explosive passing game.


Cougars threw for 319 yards, outgained Tulane 476-211- they had TD passes of 41, 62 yards.


6) Los Angeles Chargers showed good common sense by naming rookie Justin Herbert their starting QB going forward; the kid has played well so far, might as well let him play so he gets the needed experience and also so their fanbase gets excited and will want to buy tickets next season, in the new domed stadium.


5) This week, someone posted a video on Twitter of a Kentucky basketball practice from 2018; John Calipari tells the team that if Tyler Herro can make eight 3-pointers in a row, he’ll end that day’s practice early. 

First shot, swish; he runs down to the other end, makes another. He goes end-to-end three other times, makes all eight shots, and his teammates erupt with joy.


Huge change in basketball over the last 10-15 years; skill development. The Curry/Thompson Golden State teams have shown how shooting can make teams great and make a guy rich, and guys have worked their butts off to become great shooters. Herro was a steal for Miami with the 13th pick of last year’s draft.



4) For some reason the other night, I’m sitting here at 2am with a Texas-Oklahoma football game from 1984 on TV. Keith Jackson/Frank Broyles calling a rain-soaked game, was great fun to listen to. Not much passing; shoulder pads were a lot bigger then.


3) Random movie trivia, part 1: When they filmed the movie The Blues Brothers in 1980, they wrecked 103 cars during the filming, 60 of which were police cars, at $4,000 a pop.


2) Random movie trivia, part 2: Until Thursday, I had no idea that actor Jon Voight was Angelina Jolie’s father.


1) Best wishes to Kansas football coach Les Miles, one of our favorites, who tested positive for COVID this week. Get well soon, coach.
 

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MLB
Dunkel


Friday, October 9


NY Yankees @ Tampa Bay


Game 933-934
October 9, 2020 @ 7:10 pm


Dunkel Rating:
NY Yankees
(Cole) 17.577
Tampa Bay
(Glasnow) 16.570
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-155
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-155); Under









MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up


Friday, October 9



Best-of-5 series


New York vs Tampa Bay (2-2) (@ San Diego)

Cole is 5-0, 1.85 in his last five starts; he is pitching on 3 days’ rest here.
— New York is 10-4 in his starts, 4-2 on the road.
— His last four starts all went over; NY scored 45 runs in those games.
— He is 8-4, 2.75 in 12 postseason starts.
— Cole is 1-3, 4.13 in eight career starts vs Tampa Bay.


— New York scored 45 runs in their first six playoff games.
— New York is in the playoffs for 4th year in a row.
— New York is 15-20 on the road this season.
— Over is 10-4 in their last 14 games.


They say Glasnow is starting, but on two days’ rest; he threw 93 pitches Tuesday- chances are this is a bullpen game.
— Rays won last ten times Glasnow started.
— Glasnow gave up four runs in five IP (93 PT) vs New York Tuesday.
— Don’t think rest of his stats are relevant; hard to believe they’d risk his health by throwing him for very long on two days’ rest.


— Tampa Bay won eight of its last ten games overall.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 22-13 away from home this season.
— Under is 9-6 in their last 15 games.


— Tampa Bay won 10 of 14 games with New York this season.








MLB

Friday, October 9


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NY Yankees @ Tampa Bay
NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Yankees's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Tampa Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home




-----------------------------------------------------




MLB
Long Sheet


Friday, October 9



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NY YANKEES (37 - 29) vs. TAMPA BAY (44 - 22) - 7:10 PM
GERRIT COLE (R) vs. TYLER GLASNOW (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 10-14 (-10.1 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents this season.
NY YANKEES are 44-44 (-14.7 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 44-22 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 31-15 (+9.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
TAMPA BAY is 34-13 (+17.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 17-6 (+11.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GLASNOW is 21-6 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 10-4 (+7.7 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)

GERRIT COLE vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
COLE is 3-3 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.25 and a WHIP of 1.115.
His team's record is 6-4 (-0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-4. (+0.6 units)

TYLER GLASNOW vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
GLASNOW is 2-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.29 and a WHIP of 1.295.
His team's record is 4-2 (+2.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-1. (+2.9 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




933NY YANKEES -934 TAMPA BAY
NY YANKEES are 8-16 SU (-11.8 Units) in road games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the current season.
 

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FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS



NYY at TB 07:10 PM


NYY -155


O 7.5
 

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Messages
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RECORD THRU THE WORLS SERIES:


DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD





10/09/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1325 Detail


10/08/2020 4-4-0 50.00% -50 Detail


10/07/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1075 Detail


10/06/2020 2-6-0 25.00% -2225 Detail


10/05/2020 0-4-0 0.00% -2325 Detail


10/02/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -725 Detail


10/01/2020 1-5-0 16.67% -2100 Detail


09/30/2020 9-7-0 56.25% +900 Detail


09/29/2020 2-6-0 25.00% -2525 Detail


TOTALS....20-40-0 33.33% -114.55
 

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