Cnotes mlb playoffs thru the world series news,trends,picks !

CNOTES · Oct 11, 2020

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

NFL’s all-time regular season passing yardage leaders:
78,422— Drew Brees
75,946— Tom Brady
71,940— Peyton Manning
71,838— Brett Favre
61,361— Dan Marino
60,255— Philip Rivers

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 214,171
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

**********

Armadillo: Sunday's Den: Wrapping up a college football Saturday

13) Oklahoma 53, Texas 45 OT:
— Texas scored two TD’s in last 3:17 to force OT.
— Both kickers missed a field goal in one of the OT’s.
— Oklahoma benched QB Rattler in 2nd quarter, but he played 2nd half.
— Texas is 1-2 in Big X: 63-56/31-33/45-53. Wild games.

12) Texas A&M 41, Florida 38:
— Florida QB Kyle Trask is named after Kyle Field, where A&M plays their games; both his parents went to Texas A&M.
— Gators led 28-17 with 5:00 left in third quarter.
— A&M gained 543 yards, converted 12-15 on third down.
— Aggies scored 10 points in last 4:30, kicking a 26-yard FG for the win.

11) Missouri 45, LSU 41:
— LSU had ball 1st-and-goal on 1-yard line in last minute, didn’t score- they threw the ball on 3rd and 4th down.
— LSU is 1-2, with 44-34/45-41 losses. Tough time to be the defensive coordinator.
— Missouri gained 586 yards, threw for 406.
— LSU scored 41 points, despite going 0-10 on third down.

10) Duke 38, Syracuse 24— Misleading final score:
— Total yardage: 645-286, Duke
— First downs: 36-11, Duke
— Blue Devils ran ball for 363 yards.
— If I looked at the team stats without knowing the score, would’ve said Duke, by 28-30 points, but Blue Devils were minus-4 in turnovers, which kept Syracuse within reach.

9) Auburn 30, Arkansas 28:
— Auburn led 17-0 midway thru second quarter.
— Tigers kicked 39-yard FG with 0:07 left for the win, but a controversial call on a spiked ball/fumble in the last minute saved Auburn’s bacon.
— Arkansas QB Franks was 22-30/318 yards passing, with four TD’s.
— Auburn ran for 259 yards on a soggy field; surprisingly, no turnovers either way.

8) Alabama 63, Ole Miss 48:
— Total yardage was 723-647; truly terrible defense.
— Ole Miss allowed 51-41-63 points in their first three games.
— Alabama ran 71 plays, only 7 on third down- they converted 6 of them.
— Crimson Tide gained 723 yards on 71 plays, over 10 yards/play.

7) Upsets of the Week:
— Missouri (+14) 45, LSU 41
— Kansas State (+10.5) 21, TCU 14
— NC State (+7) 21, Virginia 14
— Boston College (+6.5) 31, Pitt 30
— Middle Tennessee (+6.5) 31, FIU 28
— Texas A&M (+6) 41, Florida 38
— East Carolina (+6) 44, South Florida 24

6) Boston College 31, Pittsburgh 30 OT:
— BC led 24-14 with 3:00 left in third quarter.
— Pitt’s kicker tied game with a 58-yard FG in last minute, then missed a PAT in overtime.
— Pitt was only 4-18 on 3rd down, but converted 3-4 on 4th down.

5) Georgia 44, Tennessee 21:
— Georgia poached QB’s from Wake Forest/USC to play this year, but former walk-on Bennett is now the starter, and the Dawgs are 3-0- he was 16-27/238 passing in this game.
— Bennett had to go play at Smith JC in Mississippi before Georgia gave him a scholarship.
— Dawgs ran football for 193 yards, outgained Tennessee 431-214.

4) Kentucky 24, Mississippi State 2:
— Two weeks ago, Miss State QB Costello threw for 623 yards; he got benched in this game, came back in 4th quarter and threw a pick-6. No bueno.
— Kentucky lost 42-41 to Ole Miss last week, so great job by their defense here.

3) NC State 38, Virginia 21:
— Virginia turned ball over four times (-3), converted only 4-18 on 3rd down.
— Cavaliers threw ball for 323 yards, outgained State 405-363.
— Wolfpack is off to a 3-1 start, despite playing three road games.

2) Home favorites/home underdogs against spread, by conference:
AAC 2-3-1……2-0
ACC 6-6-1……6-2
Big X 6-3……3-2
C-USA 0-7……1-2
SEC 5-6……5-4
Sun Belt 1-1……3-1

1) I miss watching Pac-12 football until 2am on Saturday nights; look forward to when they start their season, on November 7th.

CNOTES · Oct 11, 2020

MLB public betting, line movement October 11
Patrick Everson

Caesars sportsbooks opened the ALCS Game 1 at Rays -150/Astros +130, and there was no movement through Saturday evening. The total opened 8.5 (Under -120), and that also didn’t move Saturday night

MLB betting odds are on the board for the lone Sunday matchup, Game 1 of the ALCS. The defending AL champion Houston Astros are seeking their third World Series berth in the last four seasons, while the Tampa Bay Rays aim to reach the Fall Classic for just the second time in franchise history.

FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Sunday’s ALCS game. Covers will update this action report with MLB sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement through game time.

MLB line movement

Wild-card Houston has rolled through the postseason so far, going 5-1 while sweeping a best-of-three series against Minnesota and beating Oakland in four games, capped by Thursday’s 11-6 victory. Top-seeded Tampa Bay needed all five games against the New York Yankees in the ALDS, advancing Friday night with a 5-1 victory.

Caesars sportsbooks opened Game 1 at Rays -150/Astros +130, and there was no movement through Saturday evening. The total opened 8.5 (Under -120), and that also didn’t move Saturday night. First pitch is at 7:37 p.m. ET Sunday, at San Diego’s Petco Park.

MLB public betting

The consensus is often indicative of where the public stands, and early on, it’s with the underdog for Game 1. Through Saturday evening, the Astros were attracting 68 percent of picks against the Rays.

The total saw more two-way play, with 56 percent of early consensus picks on the Under.

CNOTES · Oct 11, 2020

MLB
Weather Report

Sunday, October 11

961HOUSTON -962 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 31-22 SU (11.4 Units) in home games vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game over the last 2 seasons.

MLB
Long Sheet

Sunday, October 11

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (34 - 32) at TAMPA BAY (45 - 22) - 7:37 PM
LANCE MCCULLERS JR. (R) vs. BLAKE SNELL (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

LANCE MCCULLERS JR. vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
MCCULLERS JR. is 1-2 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.79 and a WHIP of 1.211.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

BLAKE SNELL vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SNELL is 2-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 4.54 and a WHIP of 1.458.
His team's record is 4-3 (+2.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-5. (-3.3 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, October 11

Best-of-7 series

Houston vs Tampa Bay (@ San Diego)
Valdez is 4-0, 1.42 in his last four starts.
— Houston is 8-4 in his starts, 5-2 away from home.
— Under is 3-1 in his last four starts.
— Valdez is 2-0, 1.50 in his two playoff starts.
— He hasn’t pitched against Tampa Bay.

— Astros won five of six playoff games; they scored 33 runs in their last four games.
— Houston is in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won World Series in 2017, lost World Series last season.
— Over is 3-3 in their playoff games.
— Astros are 14-24 on road, but won five of last six road tilts.

Snell is 1-2, 3.32 in his last four starts.
— Tampa Bay is 9-5 in his starts, 4-2 away from home.
— Over is 7-2 in his last nine starts.
— Snell is 1-2, 2.81 in five playoff games (3 starts).
— He is 2-2, 4.73 in six career starts vs Houston.

— Tampa Bay won five of its seven playoff games; they eliminated New York Friday, so quick turnaround here.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 25-13 away from home this season.
— Under is 4-3 in their playoff games.

— Rays lost ALDS 3-2 to Houston last season.

CNOTES · Oct 11, 2020

MLB
Dunkel

Sunday, October 11

Houston @ Tampa Bay

Game 961-962
October 11, 2020 @ 7:37 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(Valdez) 15.351
Tampa Bay
(Snell) 17.704
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-150
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-150); Under

MLB

Sunday, October 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Houston @ Tampa Bay
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston

CNOTES · Oct 11, 2020

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

HOU at TB 07:37 PM

TB -135

U 8.5

CNOTES · Oct 12, 2020

ALCS & NLCS RECORD:

10/11/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

CNOTES · Oct 12, 2020

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Some interesting spreads for Week 6 NFL games:
— Chicago @ Carolina (-2.5)
— Detroit (-3) @ Jacksonville
— Atlanta @ Minnesota (-3.5)
— Washington @ NJ Giants (-3.5)
— Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-4.5)
— Baltimore (-7.5) @ Philadelphia

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 214,639
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

**********

Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up a busy sports Sunday……

Raiders 40, Kansas City 32
— Raiders’ five first half drives: 27 plays, 333 yards, 24 points.
— Raiders in 4th quarter: 224 plays, 118 yards, 17 points.
— Las Vegas snaps a 7-game losing streak in Arrowhead.
— All five Raiders games went over the total.

— Chiefs’ first four drives: 25 plays, 212 yards, 21 points.
— Chiefs’ last eight drives: 42 plays, 181 yards, 11 points.
— Chiefs are 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite.

Pittsburgh 38, Eagles 29
— Philly is giving up 29 ppg this year, allowing 18 TD’s on 54 drives.
— Eagles are off to a 1-3-1 start; they led three of the games at halftime.
— Teams combined to convert 21-29 third down plays in this game.
— NFC East teams are 3-13 ATS outside their division.

— Steelers won their first four games, scoring 26-26-28-38 points.
— Four teams Pittsburgh beat have a combined record of 2-13-1.
— Claypool caught 7 balls for 110 yards, three TD’s, also ran for a TD.
— Home team won seven of last eight series games.

Rams 30, Washington 10
— Rams won four of first five games; this was their third east coast game in last four weeks.
— Rams’ first three drives: 23 plays, 234 yards, 20 points.
— Under McVay, LA is 14-8 ATS as a road favorite.
— Second half was played in a steady rain; tough weather for both offenses.

— Redskins in second half: 22 plays, minus-6 yards, no first downs.
— Washington lost its last four games, giving up 31.3 ppg.
— Redskins have been outscored 95-34 in the first half this season.
— Kudos to Alex Smith who played for first time in over 600 days after shattering his leg in a 2018 game. Tough guy,

Houston 30, Jaguars 14
— Jaguars started two drives in Houston territory, didn’t score either time.
— Jaguars lost their last four games, giving up 31.5 ppg.
— Jacksonville is 5-10-1 ATS in last sixteen games as a road underdog.
— Jaguars lost despite an 11-yard edge in field position; very unusual.

— Houston gets its first win; they fired their coach last week.
— Watson threw for 359 yards and three TD’s.
— Cooks caught eight footballs for 161 yards.
— Texans won five in row, nine of last 11 series games

Cardinals 30, NJ Jets 10
— Murray threw for 380 yards; Hopkins caught six balls for 131 yards.
— Cardinals outgained the Jets, 496-255.
— Four of five Arizona games stayed under the total.

— Jets lost their first five games, giving up 32.2 ppg.
— Jets scored only 32 points in their last ten red zone drives.
— New York is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a home underdog.

Baltimore 27, Bengals 3
— Bengals’ first half drives: 31 plays, 80 yards, zero points.
— Cincy converted only 3-16 third down plays.
— Bengals had only one play longer than 19 yards.

— Baltimore scored 27+ points in its four wins, 20 in their loss.
— Four of five Raven games stayed under the total.
— Baltimore has outscored opponents 47-20 in second half.
— Baltimore won last four series games, by 3-6-36-24 points.

Panthers 23, Atlanta 16
— Carolina won its last three games, outscoring foes 59-21 in first half.
— Panthers converted 29-59 third down plays this season.
— Carolina snap a 5-game losing streak to the Falcons.

— Falcons lost their first five games, giving up 32.2 ppg.
— Atlanta had a 92-yard TD drive on its first drive, but that was their only touchdown.
— Falcons scored only 3 points on two red zone drives in 4th quarter.
— Atlanta is 5-9 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite./
— Falcons fired their coach and GM Sunday night.

Dolphins 43, San Francisco 17
— Miami scored a TD, had three FG’s in last 4:38 of the first half.
— Miami scored 31.3 ppg in its last four games (12 TD’s on 39 drives).
— Fitzpatrick threw for 350 yards, three TD’s.

— Road team won all five San Francisco games.
— Niners scored 31-36 points in their wins; 20-20-17 in their losses.
— QB Garoppolo played first half, Beathard the second- they have QB issues.
— 49ers are 5-13-1 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite.

Dallas 37, NJ Giants 34
— Giants led 17-3 midway thru 2nd quarter.
— Both teams scored a defensive touchdown.
— Giants had couple TD’s called back by sketchy penalty calls, one on a fake FG.
— Giants covered 13 of last 16 games as a road underdog.

— Costly win; Dak Prescott has a compound fracture of his ankle.
— Cowboys gave up 40 points/game the last four weeks.
— Last four Dallas games went over the total.
— Cowboys won last seven series games.

Cleveland 32, Colts 23
— Colts were in red zone four times, scored only 16 points.
— Rivers threw a pick-6 in 3rd quarter; Colts ran kickoff back for a TD.
— Both QB’s in this game threw two INT’s.

— Cleveland won its last four games, scoring 35-34-49-32 points.
— Cleveland’s first half drives: 45 plays, 289 yards, two TD’s, two FG’s.
— Browns converted 10-17 third down plays.
— AFC North teams are 10-2-1 ATS outside their division.

Seattle 27, Vikings 26
— Seahawks scored a 6-yard TD with 0:15 left for the win- they drove 94 yards for the winning score.
— Seahawks scored three TD’s in a 1:53 span of the 3rd quarter.
— Seattle is 8-13-1 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite

— Vikings led 13-0 at the half; they led 26-21, had 4th-and-foot on the Seattle 6 at the 2:00 warning- they went for it, didn’t get it, then they lost.
— Minnesota lost four of first five games, despite scoring 26+ points four times.
— NFC North teams are 9-4 ATS outside their division.

Rays 2, Astros 1 (Tampa Bay leads 1-0)
— Took Snell 105 pitches to get thru five innings, but he did.
— Tampa’s bullpen tossed four scoreless frames, putting five men on base.
— Altuve homered for Houston’s only run.

Lakers 106, Miami 93 (LA wins NBA title, 4-2)
— Lakers win their 17th NBA title.
— This game wasn’t close; LA led 64-36 at halftime.
— Lebron James is third player ever to win an NBA title for three different teams.

CNOTES · Oct 12, 2020

MLB public betting, line movement October 12
Patrick Everson

Cody Bellinger and the Dodgers look to keep their perfect postseason intact against the Braves in Game 1 of the NLCS on Monday night. Caesars sportsbooks have Los Angeles a -138 favorite.

MLB betting odds are on the board for a Monday double dip, courtesy of the NLCS and ALCS. The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers square off in Game 1 of the NLCS in Arlington, Texas, preceded by Game 2 of the ALCS between the Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays in San Diego.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Monday’s games. Covers will update this action report with MLB sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement through game time.

MLB line movement

Los Angeles finished this shortened regular season with the best record in the majors, so it’s no surprise to see the Dodgers in the NLCS. L.A. is a perfect 5-0 in the postseason thus far, coming off a 3-0 sweep of the San Diego Padres in the NLDS. Likewise, Atlanta is 5-0, sweeping the Miami Marlins in the divisional round.

Caesars sportsbooks opened the Dodgers -145 Game 1 favorites, with Atlanta +135, and by late Sunday evening, the moneyline was at Dodgers -138/Braves +128. The total opened at 8 and stuck there through Sunday for Monday’s 8:08 p.m. ET first pitch.

Tampa Bay claimed a 2-1 victory over Houston in Game 1 of the ALCS on Sunday. PointsBet USA opened Game 2 at Rays -135/Astros +115, and there was no movement through Sunday night for Monday’s 4:07 p.m. ET start. PointsBet opened the total at 8 and momentarily ticked to 7.5 before going back to 8.

MLB public betting

The Dodgers are always a public team, and that’s showing up in early Covers Consensus play, with 64 percent of picks on Los Angeles through Sunday night. The total was getting two-way play, with 52 percent of picks on the Over.

Astros-Rays Game 2 is also getting two-way traction, with 52 percent of early Covers Consensus picks on Tampa Bay. On the total, 56 percent of picks through Sunday night were on the Over.

CNOTES · Oct 12, 2020

MLB
Weather Report

Monday, October 12

CNOTES · Oct 12, 2020

963HOUSTON -964 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 77-56 SU (15.4 Units) in home games against right-handed starters in the last 3 seasons.

965ATLANTA -966 LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 37-23 SU (12.5 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.

MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, October 12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (34 - 32) at TAMPA BAY (45 - 22) - 4:07 PM
TYLER GLASNOW (R) vs. CHARLIE MORTON (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

TYLER GLASNOW vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.

CHARLIE MORTON vs. HOUSTON since 1997
MORTON is 5-6 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 5.92 and a WHIP of 1.604.
His team's record is 6-6 (+0.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-8. (-4.8 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (40 - 25) vs. LA DODGERS (48 - 17) - 8:08 PM
MAX FRIED (L) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 139-93 (+24.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 62-41 (+20.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
FRIED is 12-1 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
FRIED is 26-7 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FRIED is 22-6 (+13.5 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FRIED is 19-3 (+15.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 2-9 (-9.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Monday over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MAX FRIED vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
FRIED is 0-2 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 6.55 and a WHIP of 1.909.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. ATLANTA since 1997
KERSHAW is 7-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 1.49 and a WHIP of 0.900.
His team's record is 12-2 (+8.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-6. (+0.8 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, October 12

Best-of-7 series

Houston vs Tampa Bay (1-0) (@ San Diego)
McCullers is 0-3, 4.98 in his last five starts.
— Houston is 6-6 in his starts, 2-5 away from home.
— Under is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
— McCullers is 1-0, 3.25 in 12 playoff games (5 starts).
— He is 1-2, 3.79 in three career starts vs Tampa Bay.

— Astros won five of their seven playoff games.
— Houston is in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won World Series in 2017, lost World Series last season.
— Over is 3-4 in their playoff games.
— Astros are 14-25 on road this season.

Former Astro Morton is 3-0, 4.20 in his last three starts.
— Tampa Bay is 6-4 in his starts, 2-2 away from home.
— Under is 6-1 in his last seven starts.
— Morton is 5-2, 3.50 in ten playoff games (9 starts).
— He is 4-6, 6.28 in 11 career starts vs Houston.

— Tampa Bay won six of its eight playoff games.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 26-13 away from home this season.
— Under is 5-3 in their playoff games.

— Rays lost ALDS 3-2 to Houston last season.

National League
Atlanta vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Fried is 0-0, 3.19 in his last three starts.
— Atlanta is 12-1 in his starts, 5-0 away from home.
— Over is 4-1 in his last five starts.
— Fried is 0-0, 4.67 in 10 playoff games (2 starts).
— He is 0-2, 6.55 in three career starts vs Atlanta.

— Braves threw four shutouts in winning first five playoff games.
— Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
— Braves are 21-14 away from home this season.
— Under is 4-1 in their playoff games.

Buehler is 0-0, 3.66 in his last five starts.
— Dodgers are 9-1 in his starts, winning last eight.
— Under is 5-1 in his last six starts.
— Buehler is 1-1, 2.84 in eight career playoff starts.
— He is 2-0, 2.92 in two starts vs Atlanta.

— Dodgers are 48-17 this year, winning last nine games.
— LA outscored foes 30-11 in their five playoff wins.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 27-8 away from home this season.
— Under is 4-2 in their last six games.

MLB

Monday, October 12

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Houston @ Tampa Bay
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston

Atlanta @ LA Dodgers
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Dodgers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MLB
Dunkel

Monday, October 12

Houston @ Tampa Bay

Game 963-964
October 12, 2020 @ 4:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(McCullers) 16.469
Tampa Bay
(Morton) 15.387
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-135
8
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+115); Over

Atlanta @ LA Dodgers

Game 965-966
October 12, 2020 @ 8:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Fried) 16.781
LA Dodgers
(Buehler) 19.190
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 2 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-145
8
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-145); Under

CNOTES · Oct 12, 2020

MONDAY, OCTOBER 12

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

HOU at TB 04:07 PM
TB -130
U 8.0
+500 +500

ATL at LAD 08:08 PM
LAD -140
U 8.0
+500 +500

varkeyboy · Oct 12, 2020

GL BRADDAC C! Cheers to an awesome week ahead.

CNOTES · Oct 13, 2020

cheersgif

CNOTES · Oct 13, 2020

ALCS & NLCS RECORD:

10/12/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +800 Detail
10/11/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals........5-1-0.......83.33%.....+1800

varkeyboy · Oct 13, 2020

Kabooooooom!!!

CNOTES · Oct 13, 2020

Tuesday’s 6-pack
Some interesting spreads for Week 6 college games:
— Auburn (-3.5) @ South Carolina
— Virginia (-3) @ Wake Forest
— Kentucky @ Tennessee (-6)
— Ole Miss (-3) @ Arkansas
— LSU @ Florida (-13)
— Georgia @ Alabama (-6)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 214,985
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“I love Matt (Ryan). I hope he’s going to be part of our plans going forward but that won’t be a decision I make,”
Falcons’ owner Arthur Blank, talking about his team’s quarterback after he fired the team’s coach Sunday night

Tuesday’s quiz
Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin once coached an NFL team for 20 games; which team?

Monday’s quiz
Dolphins’ QB Ryan Fitzpatrick played his college football at Harvard.

Sunday’s quiz
Since 1970, four former USC football coaches have also been NFL head coaches:
John McKay, John Robinson, Pete Carroll, Lane Kiffin

***********************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) New Orleans 30, Chargers 27 OT
— Chargers lost their last four games, two of them in OT.
— Under Lynn, LA’s record in games decided by 8 or fewer points is 3-13.
— Chargers missed a PAT, hit the upright on a 50-yard FG at gun in regulation.
— Chargers are 9-7-2 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog.

— Saints scored 30+ points in four of their five games.
— Sanders caught 12 footballs for 122 yards.
— All five New Orleans games went over the total.
— Saints allowed 34-37 points in their losses; 23-29-27 in their wins.
— New Orleans is 7-13 ATS in its last 20 games as a home favorite.

12) Tonight’s Buffalo-Tennessee game won’t be the first NFL regular season game played on a Tuesday; 10 years ago, Vikings beat Philly 24-14 on a game postponed because of a blizzard in Philadelphia. It was Michael Vick’s rookie year; Joe Webb was the Vikings’ QB.

11) Thru five weeks, NFC East doesn’t have a team at .500 or better; this is only third time this ever happened- the 2013 NFC East (Eagles wound up winning it at 10-6) and 1968 Century Division (Browns wound up 10-4, after starting out 2-3).

10) One of the coolest things about baseball is that heroes come in all shapes and sizes; Mike Brosseau got Tampa Bay into the ALCS when he homered in the 8th inning of Game 5 in the ALDS.

Brosseau played college ball at Oakland in Michigsn- he was undrafted out of college, didn’t get to AA until 2018, but he got to AAA and the majors last year, and hit .302 in 86 AB’s this year. Now he’s hit one of the, if not THE biggest home run in Rays’ history.

9) Random fact: 8 of 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL transferred while they were in college, and that doesn’t count the guys who went to junior college.

8) Dak Prescott’s shattered ankle means that Andy Dalton is now the Dallas QB; his backup is rookie Ben DiNucci, a 7th round draft pick from I-AA James Madison.

Guy on social media wrote a factual tweet about how Prescott was playing this year on a 1-year tender, rather than signing a lucrative multi-year deal, and the shattered ankle makes giving him a multi-year deal very risky. The guy got roasted by others for reporting facts- welcome to 2020.

7) Seahawks won 27-26 in dramatic fashion Sunday night, but they went 0-7 on third down conversions. Not often a team scores 27 points without converting one third down play- they did convert both their 4th down tries, including the game-winning TD with 0:15 left.

6) The Wall Street Journal reports that Red Sox owner John Henry “is in talks to join with an investment vehicle for an $8 billion deal that would take his famed sports holdings public, according to people familiar with the matter.”

Fenway Sports Group’s holdings include:
— Boston Red Sox
— Fenway Park
— New England Sports Network
— Liverpool soccer team
— Salem Red Sox
— Roush Fenway Racing
— Fenway Sports Management

5) Chicago White Sox fired manager Rick Renteria Monday; White Sox went 35-25 this year, lost in the Wild Card round in three games to Oakland. Overall, Renteria went 236-309 as skipper of the Pale Hose, after going 73-89 in his one year managing the Cubs- they fired him when Joe Maddon became available.

White Sox were 32-16 at one point this season, but went 4-11 in their last 15 games, and that was enough to get Renteria shown the door.

4) Clemson Tigers have now won 36 consecutive regular season football games.

3) Lakers’ championship this year is their 17th ever; five of those 17 titles came when the team was in Minneapolis (Minnesota is the Land of 10,000 Lakes).
— Rajon Rondo joins Clyde Lovelettte as only players ever to win a title as both a Laker and a Celtic.
— Lebron James took some heat for passing to Danny Green for an open 3-pointer at the end of Game 5; to me, that is part of what makes James so great, he trusted his teammate to make a shot (Green is a career 40% shooter on the arc). Green missed, but that’s not the point. Great teams have players who trust each other, and addition to great talent, that is why they win.

2) Rays 4, Astros 2 (Tampa Bay leads 2-0)
— Bregman flied to center with bases loaded to end the game.
— Margot hit a 3-run homer in the first inning, after an Altuve throwing error.
— Zunino hit a 454-foot homer for the Rays- he has three homers this postseason, after he hit .147 during the regular season.
— In MLB history, teams that went up 2-0 in best-of-7 series have won the series 72 of 85 times (84.7%).

1) Braves 5, Dodgers 1 (Atlanta leads 1-0):
— Braves scored four times in ninth inning; they’re 6-0 in the playoffs.
— Riley, Albies homered in the decisive 9th inning.
— Teams were a combined 1-14 with runners in scoring position.
— Roughly 11,000 fans were allowed to come in and watch this game, in Arlington TX.

CNOTES · Oct 13, 2020

MLB public betting, line movement October 13
Patrick Everson

Brandon Lowe and the Rays look to take a commanding 3-0 ALCS lead when they meet the Astros on Wednesday night. Caesars sportsbooks opened Game 3 a -105 pick 'em.

MLB betting odds are on the board for a Tuesday schedule that again has both the ALCS and NLCS in play. The Tampa Bay Rays can take firm control of their series against the Houston Astros, and Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers look to bounce back against the Atlanta Braves.

Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement and public betting for Tuesday’s games.

MLB line movement

Tampa Bay notched a 4-2 victory Monday over Houston to take a 2-0 lead in the ALCS. A Rays win in Tuesday’s 8:40 p.m. ET Game 3 would make it very difficult for the defending AL champion Astros to return to the World Series. Caesars books opened Game 3 a -105 pick ‘em, and there was no movement through Monday night.

Atlanta and Los Angeles played a Game 1 gem in the NLCS, going to the ninth inning tied at 1. Then the Braves produced four runs in the top of the ninth to get a 5-1 victory. But with Kershaw toeing the slab in Tuesday’s 6:05 p.m. ET start, Caesars opened at Dodgers -155/Braves +145 late Monday night.

MLB public betting

The consensus is often a good indicator of what the public thinks, and on Monday night, there was belief that Houston would rebound in Game 3. The Astros were taking 70 percent of early picks against the Rays.

Likewise, the expectation Monday night was that the Dodgers would knot up the series with the Braves. Los Angeles was attracting 67 percent of early consensus picks.

*********************************

MLB
Dunkel

Tuesday, October 13

Atlanta @ LA Dodgers

Game 969-970
October 13, 2020 @ 6:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Anderson) 18.576
LA Dodgers
(Kershaw) 17.396
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-160
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+140); Under

Tampa Bay @ Houston

Game 967-968
October 13, 2020 @ 8:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Yarbrough) 15.315
Houston
(Urquidy) 16.498
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-115
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-105); Over

MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 13

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TAMPA BAY (47 - 22) at HOUSTON (34 - 34) - 8:40 PM
RYAN YARBROUGH (L) vs. JOSE URQUIDY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 47-22 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 23-8 (+11.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
TAMPA BAY is 26-14 (+12.9 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 31-15 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 36-13 (+20.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 30-15 (+10.4 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
HOUSTON is 34-34 (-9.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 89-71 (-21.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 46-42 (-23.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against HOUSTON this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

RYAN YARBROUGH vs. HOUSTON since 1997
YARBROUGH is 0-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 0.833.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

JOSE URQUIDY vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.

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ATLANTA (41 - 25) vs. LA DODGERS (48 - 18) - 6:05 PM
IAN ANDERSON (R) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 140-93 (+25.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 16-5 (+11.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 (+1.4 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

IAN ANDERSON vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
No recent starts.

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. ATLANTA since 1997
KERSHAW is 7-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 1.49 and a WHIP of 0.900.
His team's record is 12-2 (+8.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-6. (+0.8 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 13

Best-of-7 series

Houston vs Tampa Bay (2-0) (@ San Diego)
Urquidy is 0-0, 3.74 in his last four starts.
— Houston is 3-4 in his starts, 1-3 away from home.
— Under is 4-3 in his seven starts.
— Urquidy is 1-0, 2.89 in six playoff games (3 starts).
— He has never pitched against Tampa Bay.

— Astros won five of their eight playoff games, but scored total of 3 runs in losing first two games in this series.
— Houston is in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won World Series in 2017, lost World Series last season.
— Under is 5-3 in their playoff games.
— Astros are 14-26 on road this season.

Yarbrough has a 2.14 RA in his last four appearances (21 IP)
— Tampa Bay is 4-5 in his starts, 3-3 away from home, but some of his appearances aren’t starts.
— Under is 7-2 in his starts this year.
— Yarbrough allowed two runs in 8 IP in four playoff stints, all in relief.
— He is 0-1, 2.92 in 2 career games (1 start) vs Houston.

— Tampa Bay won seven of its nine playoff games.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 27-13 away from home this season.
— Under is 6-3 in their playoff games.

— Rays lost ALDS 3-2 to Houston last season.

Atlanta (1-0) vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Anderson is 5-2, 2.05 in his first eight MLB starts.
— Atlanta is 12-1 in his starts, 5-0 away from home.
— Under is 5-1-2 in his starts.
— Anderson has thrown 11.2 scoreless innings in the playoffs.
— He has never pitched against the Dodgers.

— Braves allowed total of six runs in winning first six playoff games.
— Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
— Braves are 22-14 away from home this season.
— Under is 5-1 in their playoff games.

Kershaw is 3-0, 2.67 in his last four starts.
— Dodgers are 9-2 in his starts this season.
— Over is 4-2 in his last six starts.
— Kershaw is 11-11, 4.23 in 34 career playoff games (27 starts).
— He is 5-0, 1.78 in 11 starts vs Atlanta.

— Dodgers are 48-18 this year, winning nine of last ten games.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 27-9 away from home this season.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.

MLB

Tuesday, October 13

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Atlanta @ LA Dodgers
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Tampa Bay @ Houston
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tampa Bay's last 13 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Houston
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay