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THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS



CIN at ATL 12:08 PM
CIN +110
O 7.5

+500 +500


MIA at CHC 02:08 PM
MIA +160
O 7.0

+500 +500


STL at SD 07:08 PM
STL +140
U 8.5

+500 +500


MIL at LAD 10:08 PM
MIL +200
U 7.5

+500 +500
 

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RECORD THRU THE WORLS SERIES:




DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


10/01/2020 1-5-0 16.67% -2100 Detail


09/30/2020 9-7-0 56.25% +900 Detail


09/29/2020 2-6-0 25.00% -2525 Detail



TOTALS..........12-18-0.......40.00.......-3725
 

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Friday’s 6-pack


Odds to win the college hoop national title next April:



10-1— Gonzaga
12-1— Baylor
14-1— Villanova
16-1— Kentucky
18-1— Virginia
20-1— Duke, Texas Tech




Americans who have died from COVID-19: 206,005
Please wear a mask when you go out.




Quote of the Day
“We know that we can win. We do. But we know that we’ve got to play perfect, man. We know we can’t not rebound and not get back. So coming into Game 2, all the adversity, backs against the wall, yadda, yadda, yadda, we got to win.”
Miami Heat star Jimmy Butler, whose team will be missing two starters tonight


Friday’s quiz
Which NFL team drafted John Elway?


Thursday’s quiz
New York Jets were first AFL team to beat an NFL team in a Super Bowl, Super Bowl III


Wednesday’s quiz
The first Super Bowl was played in the LA Coliseum.




**********************************




Friday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Thursday


13) From James Logan: This week’s NFL games come with an average over/under of 49.9 points; since 2006, that would be the highest average over/under for any NFL weekend.
48.7- Week 11, 2018
48.2- Week 3, 2020
48.0- Week 10, 2018
47.8- Week 8, 2018
47.7- Week 9, 2018
47.3- Week 5, 2018
47.3- Week 7, 2018
47.1- Week 13, 2018
46.9- Week 11, 2014
46.8- Week 2, 2019


Ironic thing is that in those ten weeks, under wound up going 85-59-1 (59%)


12) Penalties per game are down about 1.5 flags per game over the previous four years; holding calls are down roughly 40%. Another reason for more scoring, higher totals.


11) Reader named Greg sent me this stat Thursday morning: over last 33 NFL games, if you bet first half totals, over is now 26-7, 16-1 in the last 17 games played.


Good weather is part of it, but is it easier to run an offense with no crowd noise? Fair question.


10) A’s 6, White Sox 4 (Oakland wins series 2-1)
— 17 pitchers were used in this game; none of them got more than six outs.
— Chicago led 3-0 after third inning.
— A’s win their first playoff series since 2006.
— For season, White Sox wound up 15-0 vs lefty starters, 23-27 vs righties.
— Tim Anderson had nine hits in three games for Chicago.


9) Braves 5, Reds 0 (Atlanta wins series 2-0):
— Cincinnati scored zero runs in 22 innings in this series. Zero. None. Bupkis.
— Rookie Anderson threw six shutout innings for Atlanta.
— Ozuna, Duvall both homered in a 4-run 8th inning.


8) Padres 11, Cardinals 9 (series 1-1):
— St Louis led 4-2 after five innings, before the Padres’ bats exploded.
— Fernando Tatis homered twice, knocked in five runs.
— 17 pitchers were used in this game, too.


7) Dodgers 3, Brewers 0 (LA wins series 2-0)
— Kershaw threw eight shutout innings, struck out 13.
— Milwaukee had a guy picked off first when they were down 3-0 in 8th inning; no bueno.
— At no point this season were the Brewers ever over .500.


6) Sunday’s Steeler-Titans game was postponed until later this season, after more Tennessee players tested positive for COVID.


5) Marlins’ OF Starling Marte broke his pinkie Wednesday; he can still pinch-run or play the field, but he can’t swing a bat for a while.


4) Philadelphia 76ers acted quickly, named Doc Rivers their new head coach.


3) Week or so ago, New York catcher Gary Sanchez was called for catcher’s interference three times in a 5-game stretch; he is the first major league catcher to do that since Vic Roznovsky of the Cubs, on September 28-29, 1965.


2) Philadelphia Eagles have been outscored 49-16 in second half of games this year.


1) Denver 37, NJ Jets 28:
— McManus drilled a 52-yard FG with 3:08 left for the win.
— Rookie QB Rypien was 19-31/242 in his first NFL start, but he did throw three INT’s.
— AFC West teams are 7-3-1 ATS outside their division.


— Jets had six personal fouls in this game, four in the first half.
— Jets lost their first four games, allowing 32.5 ppg.
— Jets are 6-11-1 ATS in their last 18 home games.


 

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Armadillo: Friday's six-pack


Odds to win the college hoop national title next April:
10-1— Gonzaga
12-1— Baylor
14-1— Villanova
16-1— Kentucky
18-1— Virginia
20-1— Duke, Texas Tech


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 206,005
Please wear a mask when you go out.




**********


Armadillo: Friday's Den: Wrapping up a busy Thursday


13) From James Logan: This week’s NFL games come with an average over/under of 49.9 points; since 2006, that would be the highest average over/under for any NFL weekend.
48.7- Week 11, 2018
48.2- Week 3, 2020
48.0- Week 10, 2018
47.8- Week 8, 2018
47.7- Week 9, 2018
47.3- Week 5, 2018
47.3- Week 7, 2018
47.1- Week 13, 2018
46.9- Week 11, 2014
46.8- Week 2, 2019


Ironic thing is that in those ten weeks, under wound up going 85-59-1 (59%)


12) Penalties per game are down about 1.5 flags per game over the previous four years; holding calls are down roughly 40%. Another reason for more scoring, higher totals.


11) Reader named Greg sent me this stat Thursday morning: over last 33 NFL games, if you bet first half totals, over is now 26-7, 16-1 in the last 17 games played.


Good weather is part of it, but is it easier to run an offense with no crowd noise? Fair question.


10) A’s 6, White Sox 4 (Oakland wins series 2-1)
— 17 pitchers were used in this game; none of them got more than six outs.
— Chicago led 3-0 after third inning.
— A’s win their first playoff series since 2006.
— For season, White Sox wound up 15-0 vs lefty starters, 23-27 vs righties.
— Tim Anderson had nine hits in three games for Chicago.


9) Braves 5, Reds 0 (Atlanta wins series 2-0):
— Cincinnati scored zero runs in 22 innings in this series. Zero. None. Bupkis.
— Rookie Anderson threw six shutout innings for Atlanta.
— Ozuna, Duvall both homered in a 4-run 8th inning.


8) Padres 11, Cardinals 9 (series 1-1):
— St Louis led 4-2 after five innings, before the Padres’ bats exploded.
— Fernando Tatis homered twice, knocked in five runs.
— 17 pitchers were used in this game, too.


7) Dodgers 3, Brewers 0 (LA wins series 2-0)
— Kershaw threw eight shutout innings, struck out 13.
— Milwaukee had a guy picked off first when they were down 3-0 in 8th inning; no bueno.
— At no point this season were the Brewers ever over .500.


6) Sunday’s Steeler-Titans game was postponed until later this season, after more Tennessee players tested positive for COVID.


5) Marlins’ OF Starling Marte broke his pinkie Wednesday; he can still pinch-run or play the field, but he can’t swing a bat for a while.


4) Philadelphia 76ers acted quickly, named Doc Rivers their new head coach.


3) Week or so ago, New York catcher Gary Sanchez was called for catcher’s interference three times in a 5-game stretch; he is the first major league catcher to do that since Vic Roznovsky of the Cubs, on September 28-29, 1965.


2) Philadelphia Eagles have been outscored 49-16 in second half of games this year.


1) Denver 37, NJ Jets 28:
— McManus drilled a 52-yard FG with 3:08 left for the win.
— Rookie QB Rypien was 19-31/242 in his first NFL start, but he did throw three INT’s.
— AFC West teams are 7-3-1 ATS outside their division.


— Jets had six personal fouls in this game, four in the first half.
— Jets lost their first four games, allowing 32.5 ppg.
— Jets are 6-11-1 ATS in their last 18 home games.
 

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MLB public betting, line movement for October 2
Patrick Everson


Starter Sixto Sanchez and the Marlins look to finish off the Cubs in Friday's Game 2 of the best-of-3 wild-card series. However, Chicago has Yu Darvish on the hill and is a -200 favorite at FanDuel.


MLB betting odds are up for Friday’s wild-card playoffs schedule, with only two games after three more teams advanced to the divisional round with Thursday victories. The Chicago Cubs extended their season by at least a day after Game 2 was postponed, so they’ll again look to avoid elimination against the Miami Marlins.


FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday’s games.


MLB line movement


Chicago hopes an extra day proves good for Yu Darvish, who is 8-3 with a 2.01 ERA heading into this must-win situation. The Cubs, dealt a 5-1 Game 1 loss on Wednesday, went up as -200 favorites in Game 2 at FanDuel, with Miami +174 for a 2:08 p.m. ET first pitch. There was no line movement through Thursday night.


The San Diego Padres had a great regular season, but it looked like the postseason was going to be a short one. San Diego lost Game 1 to the St. Louis Cardinals 7-4, then trailed 6-2 in the sixth inning of Game 2 Thursday. But the Padres’ offense caught fire en route to an 11-9 win to force Friday’s Game 3, at 10:08 p.m. ET.


With starters not set, most sportsbooks didn’t post Game 3 until Friday morning, so check back.


MLB public betting


The Cubs are the more public team by a mile, but early betting splits at FanDuel showed two-way action, with 55 percent of bets on the Marlins and money dead even through Thursday night.
 

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up


Friday, October 2



Best-of-3 series


National League
Miami (1-0) @ Chicago

Rookie Sanchez is 3-2, 3.46 in his first seven MLB starts.
— Marlins are 3-4 in his starts, 2-1 on the road.
— Under is 5-2 in his starts.
— He’s never faced Chicago; this is his first playoff appearance.


— Miami is 9-8 in its last 17 games, winning four of last five.
— Marlins are in playoffs for first time since 2003.
— Miami is 21-14 on the road (11-15 at home).
— Over is 8-5 in their last thirteen games.


Darvish is 0-2, 4.74 in his last three starts; he is 5-3, 2.73 in nine home starts.
— Cubs are 8-3 in his starts, 6-3 at home.
— Under is 5-1 in his last six starts.
— Darvish is 2-4, 5.81 in six playoff starts.
— He is 2-1, 6.06 in five career starts vs Miami.


— Chicago had only four hits in yesterday’s 5-1 loss.
— Cubs lost seven of their last ten games overall.
— Chicago is 19-15 at home this season.
— Cubs are in playoffs for fifth time in six years; they won World Series in 2016.
— Under is 8-4 in their last 12 games.


St Louis @ San Diego (series 1-1)
Flaherty is 2-2, 7.11 in his last four starts.
— St Louis is 5-4 in his starts, 2-2 on the road.
— Over is 5-4 in his starts this year.
— Flaherty is 1-0, 1.10 in three starts vs San Diego.
— He is 1-1, 4.24 in three career playoff starts.


— Cardinals are 9-5 in their last 14 games.
— St Louis is in playoffs for 8th time in 12 years, 2nd time in last five.
— Cardinals are 17-16 on the road this season.
— Under is 7-4 in their last 11 games.


Sounds like a bullpen game for the Padres.


— San Diego is 14-7 in their last 21 games.
— Padres are in playoffs for first time since 2006.
— San Diego is 28-13 vs right-handed starters.
— Over is 5-0 in their last five games.








MLB

Friday, October 2


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Miami @ Chi Cubs
Miami
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Miami
Chi Cubs is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Miami


St. Louis @ San Diego
St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games on the road
St. Louis is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
 

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MLB
Dunkel


Friday, October 2


Miami @ Chicago Cubs


Game 971-972
October 2, 2020 @ 2:08 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Miami
(Sanchez) 15.137
Chicago Cubs
(Darvish) 16.547
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 1 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago Cubs
-200
7
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(-200); Under


St. Louis @ San Diego



Game 977-978
October 2, 2020 @ 7:08 pm


Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Flaherty) 15.015
San Diego
(TBD) 16.597
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 1 1/2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
N/A








MLB
Long Sheet


Friday, October 2



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MIAMI (32 - 29) at CHICAGO CUBS (34 - 27) - 2:08 PM
SIXTO SANCHEZ (R) vs. YU DARVISH (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 32-29 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MIAMI is 17-14 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
MIAMI is 25-17 (+16.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1908-1937 (-279.9 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1025-899 (-151.9 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 18-28 (-22.2 Units) against the money line in home games in October games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 219-239 (-54.8 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 959-949 (-170.0 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1420-1448 (-214.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 (+1.6 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

SIXTO SANCHEZ vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
No recent starts.

YU DARVISH vs. MIAMI since 1997
DARVISH is 2-1 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 6.07 and a WHIP of 1.575.
His team's record is 4-1 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+1.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (31 - 29) at SAN DIEGO (38 - 24) - 7:08 PM
JACK FLAHERTY (R) vs. ADRIAN MOREJON (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-1 (+0.5 Units) against SAN DIEGO this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

JACK FLAHERTY vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
FLAHERTY is 1-0 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 1.10 and a WHIP of 1.164.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.0 units)

ADRIAN MOREJON vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
No recent starts.
 

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FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS



MIA at CHC 02:08 PM


MIA +175


O 7.0

 

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RECORD THRU THE WORLS SERIES:




DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


10/02/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -725 Detail


10/01/2020 1-5-0 16.67% -2100 Detail



09/30/2020 9-7-0 56.25% +900 Detail


09/29/2020 2-6-0 25.00% -2525 Detail



TOTALS..........13-21-0.......38.23.......-44.50
 

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Armadillo: Monday's six-pack


NFL leaders in rushing yardage:
424— Dalvin Cook, Minn
335— Nick Chubb, Clev
319— Derrick Henry, Tenn
315— Joe Mixon, Cin
303— Aaron Jones, GB
300— Josh Jacobs, LV


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 208,025
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.




**********


Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up a football Sunday


Notes:
— New England-Kansas City game will be Monday at 7pm on CBS; Atlanta-Green Bay game moves back to 8:50pm, on ESPN.
— Sunday, there were 13 touchdowns scored before the first FG was kicked, which is unusual.


Saints 35, Detroit 29:
— Brees threw an INT on the Saints’ 1st play of the game; the next five times they had the ball: 46 plays, 359 yards, 35 points.
— New Orleans has been outscored 72-44 in 2nd half of games.
— Saints are 13-4 ATS in last 17 games as a road favorite.


— Detroit led 14-0 after 4:37 of this game.
— Lions are 10-25-1 under Matt Patricia; their last coach was 36-28, and he got fired.
— Detroit is 6-10 ATS in its last 16 games as a home underdog.


Carolina 31, Cardinals 21:
— Murray ran ball for 78 yards, but threw for only 133 yards— Hopkins caught 7 balls, for only 41 yards.
— Arizona was outgained 444-262; Redbirds converted only 3-9 third down plays.
— Cardinals are 3-5ATS in last eight games as a road favorite.


— Carolina’s first four drives: 34 plays, 222 yards, 16 first downs, 21 points.
— Panthers won their last five games with Arizona.
— Carolina is 6-3-1 ATS in last ten games as a home underdog.


Cincinnati 33, Jaguars 25:
— Jaguars lost last three games, allowing 33-31-33 points.
— Jacksonville is 5-9-1 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.
— AFC South teams are 3-7 ATS outside their division, 1-5 on road.


— Bengals scored 30-23-33 points in their last three games.
— Cincy has only six plays of 20+ yards in its three games.
— AFC North teams are 8-2-1 ATS outside their division.


Browns 49, Dallas 38:
— On their first seven drives, Browns scored five TD’s, kicked a FG.
— Cleveland won its last three games, scoring 35-34-49 points, first time they’ve scored 30+ points three games in a row since they became a franchise in 1999.
— Browns ran ball for 307 yards, are averaging 207 ypg on ground this season.


— Dallas lost three of first four games; despite scoring 109 points in their last three games.
— Cowboys turned ball over nine times (-8) in last three games- they lost field position by 17-14-9 yards in those games.
— NFC East teams are 2-11-1 ATS outside their division, 0-5 if favored.


Vikings 31, Houston 23:
— Minnesota averaged 9.9 yards/pass attempt, had six plays of 20+ yards.
— Dalvin Cook ran 27 times for 130 yards, two TD’s.
— Minnesota won its last five games with the Texans.


— Houston lost its first four games, giving up 29 ppg.
— Texans’ first three drives: 12 plays, 16 yards, three punts.
— Houston has been outscored 55-36 in the 2nd half of games.


Seahawks 31, Miami 23
— Seattle won all four games, but they’ve given up 27.3 ppg (over 4-0).
— Seahawks have 19 touchdowns on 42 drives; they’re +5 in turnovers.
— Seattle is 7-1-4 ATS in its last 12 games as a road favorite.
— Seahawks won field position all four games, by 6-13-14-9 yards.


— Miami scored six times, but only one of those was a touchdown.
— Seattle wasn’t called for a penalty the whole game.
— Miami is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games vs NFC teams.


Tampa Bay 38, Chargers 31:
— Herbert averaged 10.3 yards/pass attempt, but Chargers are 0-3 in his starts.
— Chargers ran ball for only 46 yards, were outgained 484-324.
— LA’s four games were decided by total of 18 points.
— Chargers actually converted 20-38 on 3rd down in their three losses.


— Tampa Bay won its last three games, scoring 97 points (12 TD’s on 32 drives).
— Buccaneers’ last five drives: 30 plays, 285 yards, four TD’s, one FG
— Tampa Bay is 5-12-3 ATS in its last 20 games as a home favorite.


Ravens 31, Washington 17:
— Ravens are scoring 30.5 ppg in their 3-1 start this year
—Baltimore is outscoring teams 47-20 in 2nd half of games.
— Ravens are 7-0-1 ATS in last eight games as a road favorite.


— Washington lost its last three games, giving up 95 points, 462 rushing yards.
— Washington has been outscored 75-24 in the first half this season.
— Redskins have converted only 18-54 (33.3%) of third down plays.


LA Rams 17, NJ Giants 9:
— Giants lost their first four games, scoring 11.8 ppg.
— Big Blue was in red zone four times, scored only nine points.
— This year, Giants have only 28 points in ten trips to red zone.
— Giants are 12-3 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.


— Rams were held to only 240 yards, but Goff hit a 55-yard TD pass to Kupp on a 3rd down play with 6:56 left, when things were getting dicey.
— LA has outscored opponents 59-23 in second half of games.
— Rams have converted 27-52 third down plays this season.


Colts 19, Chicago 11
— Indy won its last three games, allowing total of 29 points.
— Colts drove 53 yards for a TD on its first drive, didn’t score another TD all day.
— Colts have allowed only 11 plays of 20+ yards in four games.


— Indianapolis had an 11-yard edge in field position.
— Chicago threw the ball 42 times, ran ball 16 times for 28 yards.
— Bears trailed three of their four games at halftime.


Bills 30, Las Vegas 23
— Bills were +2 in turnovers, won field position by 14 yards.
— Buffalo won its first four games, scoring 27-31-35-30 points.
— Bills converted 50%+ of their 3rd down plays in all four games.


— Raiders scored 34-34 points in their wins, 20-23 in their losses.
— Las Vegas turned ball over five times in its last two games (-4).
— All four Raider games went over the total.


Eagles 25, San Francisco 20
— Eagles were outgained 417-267, but were +2 in turnovers.
— Philly scored TD’s 0:08 apart in the 4th quarter, one on defense.
— Eagles are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog.
— Eagles won five of last six visits to San Francisco.


— 49ers yanked QB Mullens after a 4th quarter pick-6; 3rd-stringer Beathard almost pulled off an amazing comeback.
— 49ers converted 20 of last 36 third down plays.
— SF is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games as a home favorite.
 

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MLB public betting, line movement, sharp money for October 5
Patrick Everson


DJ LeMahieu and the Yankees face the AL East rival Rays on Monday in Game 1 of the best-of-5 American League Division Series. FanDuel sportsbook opened New York -130 and moved to -148.


MLB betting odds are back on the board after a couple of days off, with Monday’s schedule ushering in the divisional round. The ALDS takes the stage first, with the New York Yankees facing the AL East rival Tampa Bay Rays, and the Houston Astros meeting the Oakland Athletics


FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Monday’s games.


MLB line movement


Fifth-seeded New York made quick work of No. 4 host Cleveland last week, winning Games 1 and 2 to advance to the ALDS. Likewise, top-seeded Tampa Bay didn’t mess around, sweeping eighth-seeded Toronto 2-0 in the best-of-three series.


For Game 1 of the best-of-five series, which will be played at San Diego’s Petco Park, FanDuel opened the Yankees -130 and moved to -148 by Sunday afternoon. The Rays are +128 for an 8:07 p.m. ET first pitch.


Defending AL champion Houston was seeded sixth, but took care of No. 3 seed Minnesota, also winning the best-of-three series 2-0 last week. No. 2 seed Oakland needed all three games to get by the No. 7 Chicago White Sox, winning Thursday’s Game 3 by a 6-4 score. FanDuel opened at A's -152/Astros +132 and moved to -142/+124 Sunday evening.


Monday's game starts at 4:07 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles.


MLB sharp money


The Yankees-Rays total moved from 7.5 to 7 at FanDuel on Sunday, with 54 percent of tickets/69 percent of money on the Under.


MLB public betting


The Yankees were a popular moneyline play at FanDuel, with 61 percent of bets and 90 percent of money on the Pinstripes, through Sunday afternoon. New York was even more popular at -1.5 on the runline, attracting 89 percent of tickets and 93 percent of money.
 

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901NY YANKEES -902 TAMPA BAY
NY YANKEES are 6-14 SU (-11.5 Units) in road games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the current season.


903HOUSTON -904 OAKLAND
HOUSTON is 21-33 SU (-15.7 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.








MLB
Dunkel


Monday, October 5


Houston @ Oakland


Game 903-904
October 5, 2020 @ 4:07 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(McCullers) 15.852
Oakland
(Bassitt) 14.217
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
-145
8
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+125); Over


NY Yankees @ Tampa Bay



Game 901-902
October 5, 2020 @ 8:07 pm


Dunkel Rating:
NY Yankees
(Cole) 19.011
Tampa Bay
(Snell) 17.563
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 1 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-130
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-130); Under









MLB
Long Sheet


Monday, October 5



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NY YANKEES (35 - 27) vs. TAMPA BAY (42 - 20) - 8:07 PM
GERRIT COLE (R) vs. BLAKE SNELL (L)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 8-12 (-9.8 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents this season.
TAMPA BAY is 42-20 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 30-9 (+21.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 30-14 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 32-12 (+16.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 144-84 (+39.1 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 15-4 (+11.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SNELL is 23-10 (+15.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 8-2 (+7.5 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)

GERRIT COLE vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
COLE is 2-3 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.12 and a WHIP of 1.092.
His team's record is 5-4 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-4. (-0.5 units)

BLAKE SNELL vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
SNELL is 4-6 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.31 and a WHIP of 1.435.
His team's record is 9-9 (+0.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-9. (-2.8 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (31 - 31) vs. OAKLAND (38 - 25) - 4:07 PM
ZACK GREINKE (R) vs. JESUS LUZARDO (L)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 31-31 (-9.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 19-21 (-11.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
GREINKE is 20-26 (-17.9 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
OAKLAND is 134-90 (+26.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 84-57 (+24.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 153-115 (+27.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 7-3 (+3.9 Units) against HOUSTON this season
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.5 Units)

ZACK GREINKE vs. OAKLAND since 1997
GREINKE is 9-3 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 2.96 and a WHIP of 1.223.
His team's record is 9-8 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-10. (-4.8 units)

JESUS LUZARDO vs. HOUSTON since 1997
LUZARDO is 1-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 2.84 and a WHIP of 0.947.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------






MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up


Monday, October 5



Best-of-5 series American League


Houston vs Oakland (@ Los Angeles)

McCullers is 0-0, 3.57 in his last four starts; he beat the A’s 6-2 in Houston August 29, allowing two runs in six IP.
— Astros are 5-6 in his starts, 1-5 on the road.
— Under is 6-1 in his last seven starts
— McCullers is 1-0, 2.53 in 11 career playoff games (4 starts), totaling 32 IP
— He is 5-2, 4.04 in nine career starts vs Oakland.


— Houston allowed only two runs in sweeping the Twins in Minnesota last week.
— Astros are in the playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won the ’17 World Series.
— Houston is 11-23 on the road this season- this is a neutral site.
— Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games.


Bassitt is 4-0, 0.53 in his last five starts; he is 1-1, 2.65 in three starts vs Houston this year.
— Oakland is 9-3 in his starts, 3-2 on the road.
— Under is 9-3 in his starts this season.
— He allowed one run in seven IP vs Chicago LW, his first postseason start.
— Bassitt is 3-2, 3.53 in nine career games (8 starts) vs Houston.


— A’s won three of their last four games.
— Oakland is in playoffs for 3rd year in row, 6th time in nine years.
— A’s are 14-14 on the road- this is a neutral site.
— Over is 4-1-1 in their last six games.


— A’s won seven of ten games with Houston this season.


New York vs Tampa Bay (@ San Diego)
Cole is 4-0, 1.29 in his last four starts; he is 0-1, 4.96 in three starts vs Tampa Bay this year.
— New York is 9-4 in his starts, 5-2 on the road.
— Over is 7-4-2 in his starts this season.
— Cole is 7-4, 2.60 in 11 career postseason starts.
— He is 0-3, 4.07 in seven career starts against the Rays.


— New York scored 22 runs in their sweep of the Indians in Cleveland last week.
— New York is in the playoffs for 4th year in a row.
— New York is 13-18 on the road this season.
— Over is 7-3 in their last ten games.


Snell is 6-0, 2.57 in his last seven starts; he is 1-1, 3.77 in three starts vs NY this season.
— Rays are 10-2 in his starts, 5-1 on the road.
— Over is 7-4-1 in his starts this season.
— Snell is 1-1, 0.82 in four career playoff games (2 starts).
— He is 4-6, 4.31 in 18 career starts vs New York.


— Tampa Bay won its last six games overall; they held Toronto to three runs in their sweep of the Blue Jays last week.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 20-11 away from home this season.
— Under is 8-3 in their last eleven games.
— Tampa Bay has couple OF’s (Renfroe, Margot) who called San Diego home last year.


— Tampa Bay won eight of ten games with New York this season.








MLB

Monday, October 5


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Houston @ Oakland
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Oakland
Oakland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Houston
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston


NY Yankees @ Tampa Bay
NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 7 games on the road
NY Yankees is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
 

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AL Divisional Series Cheat Sheet
Kevin Rogers


The Wild Card round is over as the 16-team field has been sliced in half to eight squads seeking a World Series title. No team will have home-field advantage the rest of the way as the four remaining series will be played at neutral sites in California and Texas.


The divisional playoff round in the American League will take place in San Diego and Los Angeles. AL East rivals Tampa Bay and New York will square off at Petco Park, while AL West foes Oakland and Houston hook up at Dodger Stadium.


#1 Tampa Bay Rays vs. #5 New York Yankees


at Petco Park, San Diego



TB: 42-20 SU, 28-31-3 O/U
NYY: 35-27 SU, 31-27-4 O/U


Series Price


Tampa Bay -110
New York -110


Series Schedule


Game 1 - Monday, Oct. 5 - 8:07 p.m. ET (TBS)
Game 2 - Tuesday, Oct. 6 - TBD (TBS)
Game 3 - Wednesday, Oct. 7 - TBD (TBS)
Game 4 - Thursday, Oct. 8 - (If Necessary)
Game 5 - Friday, Oct. 9 - (If Necessary)


The Rays and Yankees aren't exactly the best of friends as these two division rivals are meeting in the postseason for the first time ever. Tampa Bay cruised to the AL East title for the third time in franchise history and first time since 2010. The Yankees are making their fourth straight playoff appearance as they are seeking their first World Series trip since 2009.


Tampa Bay took care of Toronto in the Wild Card round by outscoring the Blue Jays, 11-3 in a pair of wins. Former Cy Young winner Blake Snell won his first ever playoff start in a 3-1 triumph in Game 1, followed by six-run second inning breakout by the Rays in an 8-2 blowout in Game 2.


The Yankees' potent offense showed up by posting a pair of double-digit run performances in a two-game sweep of the Indians. New York rolled past Cleveland in the series opener, 12-3 behind Gerrit Cole's 13 strikeouts in seven innings. The Yankees erased an early 4-0 hole and a ninth-inning deficit to capture Game 2 by a 10-9 count behind three home runs, including a grand slam by third baseman Gio Urshela.


The Rays have advanced to the ALCS only once in franchise history, coming during their World Series run in 2008. The Yankees are seeking their third ALCS appearance in the last four seasons as they lost to the Astros the first two times (and are still alive in the other ALDS matchup).


Tampa Bay dominated the season series by taking eight of 10 meetings from New York. The Rays knocked off the Yankees five of six times in the Bronx, while Tampa Bay went 2-1 in three games against Cole, who is scheduled to start Game 1. Rays' hurler Tyler Glasnow defeated Cole and the Yankees twice, as the right-hander struck out 17 batters in the two victories.




#2 Oakland Athletics vs. #6 Houston Astros


at Dodger Stadium - Los Angeles



OAK: 38-25 SU, 28-33-2 O/U
HOU: 31-31 SU, 29-30-3 O/U


Series Price


Oakland -120
Houston +100


Series Schedule


Game 1 - Monday, Oct. 5 - 4:07 p.m. ET (TBS)
Game 2 - Tuesday, Oct. 6 - TBD (TBS)
Game 3 - Wednesday, Oct. 7 - TBD (TBS)
Game 4 - Thursday, Oct. 8 - (If Necessary)
Game 5 - Friday, Oct. 9 - (If Necessary)


No matter the sign-stealing controversy, the injuries, the managerial change prior to the season - the Astros just won't go away. Houston finished the season as one of two playoff teams to own a losing record, but the Astros managed a two-game sweep of the Twins, who have amazingly lost 18 consecutive playoff contests since 2004.

The Astros are still the defending American League champions and are seeking a third World Series trip since 2017. Houston's pitching carried them past Minnesota in the Wild Card round by allowing one run in each of the two wins. Houston cashed as a road underdog in each victory, as the Astros entered the playoffs with the worst away mark of any postseason squad.


The Athletics put up a dud offensively in Game 1 against the White Sox, but Oakland rebounded with five runs in a Game 2 victory and six runs in the series-clinching triumph of Game 3. The A's rallied from a 3-0 deficit in the deciding game with a four-run fourth inning to capture a playoff series for the first time since 2006.


Oakland has had some tough luck in the Wild Card round the last few seasons, but is playing in the ALDS for the first time since 2013, when the A's fell to the Tigers in five games. The Astros have advanced past the ALDS each of the last three seasons, but needed five games to knock out the Rays in 2019.


The A's won six of 10 meetings this season from the Astros, as Houston was limited to two runs or fewer in seven of those games. As a result, seven of those matchups finished 'under' the total, while the favorite won eight of 10 times.
 

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MONDAY, OCTOBER 5


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS



HOU at OAK 04:07 PM
OAK -145
U 8.5

+500 +500


NYY at TB 08:07 PM
TB +125
U 7.0

+500 +500
 

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RECORD THRU THE WORLS SERIES:




DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


10/05/2020 0-4-0 0.00% -2325 Detail

10/02/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -725 Detail


10/01/2020 1-5-0 16.67% -2100 Detail



09/30/2020 9-7-0 56.25% +900 Detail


09/29/2020 2-6-0 25.00% -2525 Detail



TOTALS....13-25-0 34.21% 67.75
 

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Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack


Payrolls of the eight baseball teams still playing:
— New York $249,788,488
— Los Angeles $222,115,000
— Houston $214,090,057
— Atlanta $158,026,375
— San Diego $151,453,350
— Oakland $95,455,433
— Miami $73,114,200
— Tampa Bay $72,489,233


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 210,013
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.




**********


Armadillo: Tuesday's Den: Nobody asked me, but……


13) Kansas City 26, Patriots 10:
— New England travelled to Kansas City Monday morning, played their #2-3 QB’s.
— Patriots had two empty trips to red zone; QB Hoyer was then replaced by Stidham.
— New England ran ball for 185 yards, but turned it over four times.


— KC won its first four games, scoring 29.3 ppg- they’re first team EVER to start out 4-0 four years in a row.
— Chiefs gave up 526 YR the last three weeks, 175.3/game.
— KC is 19-10 ATS in its last 29 games as a home favorite.


12) Green Bay 30, Falcons 16:
— Falcons are 0-4; they led one game 26-10 with 7:00 left, led 29-10 at halftime in another game. Coach’s job has to be in jeopardy.
— Atlanta has been outscored 84-46 in second half of games.
— Home side won last seven series games.


— Green Bay won its first four games, scoring 43-42-37-30 points.
— Three of four Packer games went over the total.
— Packers covered eight of last 11 games as a home favorite.


11) Houston Texans fired coach Bill O’Brien after their 0-4 start; Romeo Crennel is the interim coach. O’Brien had a 52-48 regular season record, with five winning seasons out of seven, but there has long been a power struggle within the Texans about personnel control, so the trade of DeAndre Hopkins, and subsequent 0-4 start, sealed O’Brien’s fate.


10) Dallas Cowboys’ defense has allowed 15 TD’s on their opponents’ last 37 drives- that’s not good. On the bright side, Dak Prescott is the first NFL player ever to pass for 450+ yards three games in a row.


9) Can’t remember an NFL game where both teams had 30+ first downs; Cleveland had 33, Dallas 35 in the Browns’ 49-38 win Sunday.


8) Only two players ever have won an NBA championship with three different teams; Robert Horry, John Salley. Lebron James would become the third if the Lakers win this year.


7) Word of the Day: quisling


According to the Oxford Dictionary, a quisling is “a traitor who collaborates with an enemy force occupying their country.”


The word originated in Norway, where a guy named Vidkun Quisling was a Norwegian military officer, politician, and Nazi collaborator in the 1930’s.


6) Not often a football team runs the ball for 300+ yards, let alone 400+; Kentucky ran it for 407 yards in their 42-41 overtime loss to Ole Miss Saturday.


On Signing Day next February, when college teams are announcing their new recruits, Ole Miss better have signed a hell of a lot of kids who play defense- they need ‘em.


5) In 2007, Michigan State’s football team had three QB’s on its roster who started NFL games this weekend: Brian Hoyer, Kirk Cousins, Nick Foles.


4) Before Saturday, the last time Oklahoma lost a football game at Iowa State was 1960, a couple months before my first birthday.


3) Baseball happenings over the last few days:
— Phillies demoted GM Matt Klentak, after the team spent a boatload of $$$ the last few years but never made the playoffs. Philly had the worst bullpen in the majors this year and they failed to re-sign free agent-to-be C JP Realmuto.
— Angels told GM Billy Eppler to take a hike; in five years under Eppler’s watch, the Halos went a combined 332-376 (.469), with no winning seasons, even though the Angels have the best player in baseball on their team. Pitching still matters.
— Washington Nationals fired their pitching coach, who was surprised by the move.


2) Houston 10, A’s 5:
— Tide turned when Houston scored four unearned runs in top of the 6th.
— Alex Bregman has homered in a playoff game on October 5 four years in a row.
— Weird watching an A’s-Astros game and seeing batboys wearing Dodger uniforms.


1) New York 9, Tampa Bay 3:
— Cole went six innings, got his first win in eight career starts vs Tampa Bay.
— New York scored 31 runs in its first three playoff games.
— Stanton hit a grand slam in the ninth inning.
 

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MLB public betting, line movement for October 6
Patrick Everson


Mookie Betts and the Dodgers open their NLDS against the Padres in Game 1 Tuesday night. With San Diego's starter not set, most books didn't post a line on this game Monday night.


MLB betting odds are posted and getting action for the Tuesday schedule, with all four divisional series on the field. The Los Angeles Dodgers open their NLDS against the NL West rival San Diego Padres, while the New York Yankees look to take a 2-0 ALDS lead on the Tampa Bay Rays.


FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Tuesday’s games.


MLB line movement


Top-seeded Los Angeles swept away the Milwaukee Brewers in two games in the wild-card round, capped by a 3-0 win Thursday. San Diego needed all three games against the St. Louis Cardinals, notching a wild 11-9 win in Game 2 Thursday and a 4-0 shutout in Game 3 Friday.


By late Monday night, the Padres still hadn’t set their starter, so most sportsbooks hadn’t posted a line for this 9:38 p.m. ET Game 1 in Arlington, Texas. Check back Tuesday for updates, and keep in mind that the four league division series are at neutral sites.


New York hammered Tampa Bay 9-3 in Game 1 of their ALDS Tuesday, capped by a ninth-inning grand slam from Giancarlo Stanton. FanDuel opened Tampa Bay a -116 favorite for Game 2 and moved to -124, with New York +108 for an 8:10 p.m. ET start at San Diego’s Petco Park.


The Houston Astros rolled over the Oakland Athletics 10-5 in Game 1 of their ALDS Tuesday. For Game 2, Oakland opened -114 and the line then dipped to a -108 pick 'em for a 4:37 p.m. ET first pitch at Dodger Stadium.


Back in the NLDS, the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves open the day with a 2:08 p.m. ET Game 1 in Houston. Both teams advanced from the wild-card round with two-game sweeps, Miami over the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta over the Cincinnati Reds. FanDuel opened Game 1 at Atlanta -205/Miami +176 and moved to -200/+174.


MLB public betting


Early moneyline bettors at FanDuel expect the Yankees to prevail, with 79 percent of tickets and 66 percent of money on the Pinstripes through Monday night. Astros-A’s is two-way play, with 53 percent of tickets/54 percent of money on Oakland, and Marlins-Braves is two-way as well, with Atlanta attracting 52 percent of bets and the money split 50/50.
 

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