NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 4
Thursday night
West Virginia @ Virginia Tech
West Virginia (1-2)
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— have 107 starts back on offensive line; all five starters are back
— QB is JT Daniels, who previously played at USC/Georgia (7 starts).
— Last 3+ years, WVU is 18-20 SU.
— Last four years, they’re 2-5 ATS as a road favorite.
— WVU is 0-2 vs I-A teams this year, giving up 38-55 points.
— They scored 31-42 points in their two losses.
Virginia Tech (2-1)
— 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line; soph QB started 23 games at Marshall
— Last 4+ years, they’re 27-26 SU.
— Hokies split their two I-A games, giving up 155-199 yards.
— Since 2017, Tech is 4-6 ATS as a home underdog.
— Hokies are 2-10 ATS in their last dozen non-league games.
— New coach Pry spent last six years as DC at Penn State.
— Tech won six of last nine series games.
— West Virginia is 1-3 ATS in last four visits to Blacksburg.
— Since start of last year, Big X teams are 3-1-1 ATS against ACC opponents.
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State
Coastal Carolina (3-0)
— Chanticleers have 4 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
— Coastal has 54 returning starts on offensive line.
— Coastal’s soph QB has 22 career starts.
— Last 2+ years, Chanticleers are 25-3 SU.
— Under Chadwell, Coastal is 5-4 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last 2+ years, Chanticleers are 9-7 ATS in conference games.
— Coastal had 263-221 YR in its two I-A wins.
Georgia State (0-3)
— GSU has 11 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Eagles have 137 returning starts on offensive line.
— Eagles lost their first three games, giving up 37.3 ppg.
— Georgia State lost SU as a 20-point favorite last week.
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Panthers have run ball for 231.2 yards/game this year.
— Charlotte passed for 401 yards against Georgia State LW.
— Last 5+ years, Georgia State is 5-7-2 ATS as home underdogs.
— Road team won last five series games.
— Coastal won 37-34/51-0 in last two visits here.
— Georgia State (+13) won LY’s matchup 42-40.
Friday night
Virginia @ Syracuse
Virginia (2-1)
— Virginia scored 3-16 points in splitting pair of I-A games.
— Cavaliers are minus-3 in turnovers this season.
— 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 22 starts back on offensive line; brought in OL from Harvard/Georgetown
— junior QB has started 20 games.
— Last 4+ years, they’re 9-7 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last 2+ years, they’re 8-4 ATS coming off a win.
— Cavaliers are 11-6 ATS in last 17 conference games.
Syracuse (3-0)
— Syracuse scored 37 ppg in winning first three games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 120 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 13 starts
— Orange gave up 484 passing yards in 32-29 win over Purdue LW
— QB Shrader has thrown 8 TD passes with no INTs so far.
— Orange is already +6 in turnovers.
— Syracuse is 12-7 ATS in last 17 ACC games.
— Since 2018, they’re 7-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— These ACC rivals haven’t met since 2015, for some reason.
Nevada @ Air Force
Nevada (2-2)
— Wolf Pack lost last two games, including 55-41 to I-AA Incarnate Word.
— Incarnate Word passed for 406 yards, ran for 216 more.
— Nevada was held under 275 yards in all three of its I-A games.
— 2 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 44 starts back on offensive line; soph QB had 3 starts at Oklahoma State
— 30-18 SU last four years- their coach bolted to a conference rival
— were +16 in turnovers LY, they’re +8 this year.
— Nevada covered four of last five games as a road underdog.
— 45 players bolted from last year’s team, either graduating/transfers.
Air Force (2-1)
— Air Force crushed Colorado 41-10, then lost 17-14 at Wyoming LW.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 44 starts back on offensive line; senior QB has 18 starts
— Last 3+ years, they’re 26-9 SU.
— Flyboys are 9-5 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.
— Since 2019, Air Force is 14-9 ATS in Mountain West games.
— Since 2018, they’re 7-6-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Underdogs covered four of last five series games.
— Air Force won four of last six meetings.
— Wolf Pack is 1-2 ATS in last three visits to Air Force.
— Over is 5-1 in last six series games.
Boise State @ UTEP
Boise State (2-1)
— Boise got whacked 34-17 at Oregon State, won 31-14 at New Mexico.
— Since 2019, they’re 5-5-1 ATS as road faves- from 2012-18, they were 23-11.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 25 starts
— 9-6 SU since start of LY, after going 88-26 previous nine years.
— Broncos are minus-3 in turnovers this season.
— Boise is 3-8 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.
Texas- El Paso (1-3)
— UTEP was held to 13-13-10 points in its three losses.
— All three of their losses are by 17+ points.
— Last 2 weeks, Miners were held to 274-253 yards by the New Mexico teams.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 94 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 19 starts
— Coach Dimel is 32-37 ATS as an underdog.
— Miners are 7-17 ATS in last 24 non-conference games.
— UTEP outgained North Texas in opener, but lost 31-13.
— Boise (-26) hammered UTEP 54-13 at home last year
— Broncos won last six series games (4-2 ATS)
— Since 2018, Mountain West teams are 10-6 ATS when playing C-USA teams.
Saturday’s top 13 games
TCU @ SMU
TCU (2-0)
— TCU won only I-A game, 38-13 at Colorado.
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 113 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 29 starts
— New coach Dykes is 73-63 SU; this is his 4th HC job.
— Last 5+ years, TCU is 9-5 ATS as a road favorite.
— In his career, Dykes is 10-15-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Horned Frogs are 7-4-1 ATS in last 11 games out of conference.
— TCU opens Big X play next week, at home vs Oklahoma.
SMU (2-1)
— 6 starters back on offense; 7 on defense
— 74 starts back on OL; junior QB has 12 starts
— are 27-12 SU last 3+ years: new coach was OC at Miami.
— This is first time since 2018 they’re a home underdog.
— Since 2017, they’re 4-2 ATS as a home dog.
— 10-4 ATS in last 14 non-conference games.
— SMU lost 34-27 at Maryland LW; Terps ran for 225 yards.
— North Texas also ran for 200+ yards, in 48-10 SMU win.
— TCU coach coached SMU from 2018-21 (30-17)
— SMU won last two meetings, 42-34/41-38.
— Horned Frogs are 4-3-1 ATS in last eight meetings.
— Over is 10-3 in last 13 series games.
— Since 2019, AAC teams are 9-3 ATS when facing Big X opponents.
— SMU hasn’t been favored in this series since 1998.
Duke @ Kansas
Duke (3-0)
— Duke scored 30-31 points in its two I-A wins.
— Northwestern passed for 435 yards in Duke’s 31-23 road win.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 124 starts back on offensive line; 4th year in row they’ll have new QB
— New coach was defensive coordinator at Texas A&M
— They’re 3-0 SU this season, +5 in turnovers;
— From 2019-21, they were 10-19 SU, minus-27 in turnovers
— Since 2020, they’re 2-7 ATS as a road underdog.
— Over last decade, Duke is 34-11 ATS out of conference.
— New coach Elko was DC at Texas A&M the last four years.
Kansas (3-0)
— Kansas scored 55-48 points in pair of I-A road wins.
— Jayhawks gave up 501-446 yards in those upset wins; they were +4 in turnovers.
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 89 starts back on offensive line; both returning QB’s have 9 starts
— Kansas is 3-0 SU; last 10 years, they were 18-99 SU
— last three years, they’re 0-4 ATS as a home favorite.
— Leipold is 13-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last two weeks, Kansas ran for 200-280 yards.
— Duke (-16) hammered Kansas 52-33 at home LY.
— Total yardage in that game: Duke 607-530.
— Before last year, teams hadn’t met since 2014.
— Since 2014, ACC teams are 10-8-1 ATS when playing a Big X foe.
Baylor @ Iowa State
Baylor (2-1)
— Baylor (+2.5) lost its one road game, 26-20 at BYU.
— Bears’ one I-A win was 42-7 at home over Texas State.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 119 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 2 starts
— Aranda is 5-5 ATS as an underdog.
— Since 2019, they’re 5-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— Baylor is 18-11 ATS in its last 29 conference games.
Iowa State (3-0)
— Iowa State allowed 10-7 points in their two I-A wins.
— Cyclones outgained their two I-A opponents, 776-383
— 5 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line.
— ISU’s new QB is completing 74.3% of his passes.
— Under Campbell, they’re 13-14 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last 3+ years, they’re 11-12-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Under Campbell, Cyclones are 32-21-2 ATS in conference games.
— Home side won last four series games.
— Bears lost 38-31/28-14 in last two trips to Iowa State.
— Baylor’s last three series wins were by 3-3-2 points.
— Over is 3-1 in Baylor’s last four visits to Ames.
Clemson @ Wake Forest
Clemson (3-0)
— Clemson won first two I-A games. 41-10/48-20.
— Tigers ran for 280 yards in LW’s win over Louisiana Tech.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 75 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 15 starts
— Lost both coordinators from LY; replaced from within.
— Last 10+ years, they’re 124-17 SU
— Since 2017, they’re 15-8-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last 2+ years, Tigers are 9-11 ATS in ACC games.
Wake Forest (3-0)
— Wake Forest scored 45-37 points in its two I-A wins.
— LW, Deacons were +2 in TO’s in a 37-36 win over Liberty.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 104 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 33 starts
— 25-13 SU last three years (+31 turnover ratio)
— In his career, Clawson is 45-36-1 ATS as an underdog.
— since 2019, Wake is 3-0 ATS as a home underdog.
— Deacons are 10-6 ATS in last sixteen ACC games.
— Clemson won last 13 series games.
— Tigers are 3-7 ATS in last ten visits to Wake Forest.
— Clemson is 5-4-2 ATS in this series when spread is single digits.
— Under is 9-5 in last fourteen series games.
Minnesota @ Michigan State
Minnesota (3-0)
— Minnesota has beaten three stiffs by a combined 149-17.
— Last three years, Gophers are 10-3-1 ATS in road games.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 64 starts return on offensive line; senior QB has 39 starts
— In his career, Fleck is 12-5-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Gophers are 12-6-1 ATS in last 19 games as a favorite overall.
— Minnesota is 26-10 SU the last 3+ years, 3-0 in bowls.
— Gophers are 15-6-1 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win.
Michigan State (2-1)
— Spartans gave up 503 TY in 39-28 loss at Washington LW.
— 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 90 starts return on offensive line; soph QB has 14 starts
— Spartans scored 38.3 ppg in their first three games.
— 13-3 SU since start of LY (16-17 SU previous three years)
— State is 14-19-1 ATS in last 34 conference games.
— Since 2018, MSU is 3-5 ATS as a home underdog.
— Spartans ran ball for 42 yards LW (457 yards in first two games)
— Michigan State won last five series games (1-4 ATS)
— These teams haven’t met since 2017.
— Gophers are 6-1 ATS in last seven visits to East Lansing.
Notre Dame @ North Carolina
Notre Dame (1-2)
— Notre Dame lost two of first three games (underdogs 3-0 ATS)
— Irish was held under 300 yards in two of three games.
— Notre Dame 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Notre Dame has 83 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Notre Dame has freshman backup QB; this is his 2nd start.
— Since 2015, Notre Dame is 8-3 ATS as an underdog.
— Notre Dame is minus-4 in turnovers.
— Last three years, Notre Dame is 21-10 ATS coming off a win.
North Carolina (3-0)
— UNC beat couple of Sun Belt teams, 63-61/35-28.
— Tar Heels gave up 288-235 rushing yards in those games.
— 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 104 starts back on offensive line; they have a redshirt freshman QB.
— Lost last nine times they scored less than 34 points.
— Last two years, they’re 8-4 ATS as home favorites.
— Last 3+ years, UNC is 12-13-1 ATS as a favorite overall.
— Carolina is 5-10-1 ATS last 16 games coming off a win.
— Notre Dame won last four meetings, covered last three
— Irish won 31-17/33-10 in last two trips to Chapel Hill.
— Over is 4-2 in last six series games.
Florida @ Tennessee
Florida (2-1)
— Gators lost 26-16 @ Kentucky; both their wins were by 3 points.
— LW, Florida scored TD with 5:05 left to pull out 31-28 win over USF.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 98 starts back on offensive line (4 starters); soph QB has 1 start
— Gators are 3-11-1 ATS last 15 games coming off a win.
— Since 2016, Florida is 2-5 ATS as a road underdog.
— At Louisiana, Napier was 8-3-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Their next true road game isn’t until November 5th.
Tennessee (3-0)
— Tennessee won its first three games, scoring 52 ppg.
— Vols have thrown ball for 371.3 yards/game so far.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 91 starts back on offensive line (4 starters); senior QB has 11 starts
— Last 2+ years, Vols are 9-4 ATS as a favorite
— In his career, Heupel is 14-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— Tennessee is 6-3 ATS in last nine games as a home favorite.
— Florida won five in row, 16 of last 17 series games.
— Gators covered four of last five games as a series underdog.
— Florida is 8-3 ATS in last 11 visits to Knoxville.
— Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
Texas @ Texas Tech
Texas (2-1)
— Texas is off to 2-1 start, losing 20-19 at home to Alabama.
— Last four years, Longhorns were 6-11 ATS on the road.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 72 starts back on offensive line.
— Redshirt freshman QB Evers is a transfer from Ohio State.
— went 32-18 SU with Herman as HC; are 7-8 SU with Sarkisian.
— since 2018, they’re 4-7 ATS as a road favorite.
— In his career, Sarkisian is 6-6 ATS as a road favorite.
Texas Tech (2-1)
— Tech beat Houston 33-30, then lost 27-14 at NC State.
— Tech outgained Wolfpack 353-270, but was minus-3 in turnovers.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 124 starts back on offensive line; junior QB had 11 starts at Oregon
— Last three years, they’re 5-4 ATS as a home underdog.
— Since 2014, Tech is 27-22-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Tech lost last two games with Texas, 70-35/63-56.
— Longhorns gained 639 yards in last year’s meeting.
— Texas won four in row, 16 of last 19 series games.
— Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in last six visits to Lubbock.
— Last four series games went over the total.
Oregon @ Washington State
Oregon (2-1)
— Ducks were outgained 571-313 in its opening 49-3 loss to Georgia
— Oregon whacked BYU 41-20 LW, running for 212 yards.
— Ducks allowed 439-305 PY in their two I-A games.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; senior QB had 34 starts at Auburn
— Last four years, Ducks are 7-5 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last six years, Oregon is 22-30-1 ATS in Pac-12 tilts.
— Last 2+ years, Oregon is 5-8-2 ATS coming off a win.
— Lanning is Ducks’ 4th coach in seven years; they’re 37-14 SU last 4+ years
Washington State (3-0)
— Coogs gave up 14-7 points in their two I-A wins.
— Wazzu won 17-14 at Wisconsin despite being outgained 401-253.
— 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 31 starts back on offensive line; new QB was I-AA All-American at Incarnate Word.
— since 2017, they’re 5-2 ATS as a home underdog
— Coogs were 7-1-1 ATS in Pac-12 games LY.
— Wazzu is 6-3-1 ATS in last ten games coming off a win.
— Oregon won last three series games, scoring 39.3 ppg.
— Ducks covered once in their last six visits to Pullman.
— Over is 13-4 in last 17 series games.
Arkansas vs Texas A&M (@ Arlington)
Arkansas (3-0)
— Arkansas won first two I-A games, scoring 31-44 points.
— Hogs gave up 352.7 PY/game, including 357 to a I-AA team.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 15 starts
— Under Pittman, they’re 10-4 ATS as an underdog.
— Under Pittman, Razorbacks are 12-6-1 ATS in SEC games.
— Arkansas ran ball for 224-295 yards in its I-A games.
— Hogs do not play a true road game until October 8th.
Texas A&M (2-1)
— Aggies scored 14-17 points in splitting two I-A games.
— A&M gained only 186-264 yards in those two games.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 37 starts back on offensive line; soph QB started 14 games at LSU.
— Under Fisher, Aggies are 14-8 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Fisher, A&M is 18-15 ATS in SEC games.
— Since 2018, A&M is 18-13 ATS coming off a win.
— Texas A&M won nine of last ten series games.
— Razorbacks covered last four meetings.
Iowa @ Rutgers
Iowa (2-1)
— Hawkeyes gave up 10-0 points in splitting two I-A games.
— Hawkeyes scored only 7-27 points in those two games.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 44 starts return on offensive line; junior QB has 19 starts
— Last 4+ years, they’re 22-14 ATS as a favorite.
— Since 2018, Iowa is 8-4 ATS as a road favorite.
— Since 2015, Iowa is +62 in turnovers (91 games)
— Since 2018, Iowa is 20-12-1 ATS coming off a win.
Rutgers (3-0)
— Rutgers won its two I-A games by 1-2 points.
— Scarlet Knights threw for only 110-59 yards in those games.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 73 starts return on offensive line; senior QB has 20 starts; another QB is freshman who threw 5 passes LY.
— Last three years, Rutgers is 3-11 ATS as a home underdog.
— In his career, Schiano is 19-20 ATS as a home dog.
— Last 2+ years, they’re +12 in turnovers (previous two years, they were minus-27)
— Since 2019, Scarlet Knights are 10-17 ATS in Big 14 games.
— Iowa won its two games with Rutgers, 30-0/14-7
— Teams haven’t met since 2019.
Kansas State @ Oklahoma
Kansas State (2-1)
— K-State whacked Missouri 40-12, then got upset 17-10 by Tulane.
— Wildcats threw for only 101-150 yards in their I-A games.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 50 starts back on offensive line; senior QB had 38 starts at Nebraska
— Since 2016, K-State is 16-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Wildcats are 13-7 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
— Last four years, K-State is 23-13 ATS in conference games.
Oklahoma (3-0)
— Sooners won first three games, by 32-30-35 points.
— Oklahoma is averaging 500.7 yards/game.
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 125 starts back on offensive line; soph QB had 25 starts at UCF
— New coach was the DC at Clemson.
— Last 10+ years, they’re 110-24 SU
— Since 2015, they’re 27-17 ATS as a home favorite.
— Sooners have allowed 10 ppg so far this season.
— K-State beat Oklahoma two of last three years, winning as underdogs of 23 and 27 points.
— Wildcats covered four of last five series games.
— Wildcats are 5-3 ATS in last eight visits to Norman.
— Over is 7-1-1 in last nine series games.
USC @ Oregon State
USC (3-0)
— Trojans scored 66-43-45 points in first three games (3-0 ATS).
— USC already has a +10 turnover margin.
— 8 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 109 starts back on offensive line; soph QB started 7 games at Oklahoma
— Trojans are 7-1 ATS last eight games as a road favorite.
— In his career, Riley is 7-11-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— USC gained 500+ yards in all three games this season.
Oregon State (3-0)
— Beavers have already beaten Boise St/Fresno St, good wins.
— Fresno threw for 360 yards in OSU’s 35-32 road win.
— 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 76 starts back on offensive line; junior QB 15 starts
— Last two years, Beavers were 4-1 ATS as home underdogs.
— Last 3 years, Oregon State is 15-9-1 ATS in Pac-12 games.
— OSU is 7-3 ATS in last ten games coming off a win.
— Beavers (+11) upset USC 45-27 in the Coliseum LY.
— USC has still won four of last five series games.
— Trojans are 3-5 ATS in last eight visits to Corvallis.
