NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 6
13 of Saturday’s best games
TCU @ Kansas
TCU (4-0)
— TCU scored 38-42-55 points in its I-A wins.
— TCU passed for 307 yards, ran for 361 more in 55-24 win vs Oklahoma LW.
— Horned Frogs already have road wins at Colorado/SMU.
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 113 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 29 starts
— New coach Dykes is 75-63 SU; this is his 4th HC job.
— In his career, Dykes is 11-15-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last 2+ years, TCU is 5-0 ATS as a road favorite.
Kansas (5-0)
— Kansas was outgained 313-212 in LW’s 14-11 win over Iowa State.
— Jayhawks gave up 446+ yards in three of four I-A games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 89 starts back on offensive line; both returning QB’s have 9 starts
— Kansas is 5-0 SU; last 10 years, they were 18-99 SU
— Since 2017, they’re 8-15 ATS as a home underdog.
— In his career, Leipold is 13-6 ATS as a home underdog.
— Kansas QB Daniels has completed 68% of passes, with 11 TD’s, 1 INT.
— TCU won 3 in row, nine of last ten series games.
— Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Lawrence.
— Over is 3-1 in last four series games.
Arkansas @ Mississippi State
Arkansas (3-2)
— Arkansas lost last two games, 23-21 Texas A&M, 49-26 Alabama.
— Hogs have run for 237.5 yards/games in its I-A tilts.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 15 starts
— Under Pittman, they’re 10-6 ATS as an underdog (0-2 TY).
— Under Pittman, Razorbacks are 12-8-1 ATS in SEC games.
— Last three games, Arkansas is minus-4 in turnovers.
— Under Pittman, Razorbacks are 6-5 ATS coming off a loss.
Mississippi State (4-1)
— Bulldogs hammered Texas A&M 42-24 LY, they were +3 in turnovers.
— Miss State’s only loss was 31-16 at LSU- Tigers ran for 206 yards.
— LSU held them to 214 PY; they threw for 320+ yards in their wins.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 82 starts back on offensive line; soph QB 19 starts
— Under Leach, they’re 16-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Leach, Miss State is 19-16 ATS in SEC games.
— Under Leach, Bulldogs are 20-13 ATS coming off a win.
— Arkansas won last two meetings, 21-14/31-28
— Razorbacks are 4-2 ATS in last six visits to Starkville.
— Over is 11-4 in last fifteen series games.
Purdue @ Maryland
Purdue (3-2)
— Purdue’s two losses: 35-31 Purdue/32-29 at Syracuse
— Boilers’ I-A wins: 28-26 FAU/20-10 at Minnesota
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 77 starts return on offensive line; senior QB has 15 starts
— Under Brohm, Boilers are 14-9 ATS on the road.
— Last 2+ years, Boilers are 7-10 ATS in conference games.
— In its two losses, Purdue was held to 70-61 rushing yards.
— Since 2017, Boilers are 15-12 ATS coming off a win.
Maryland (4-1)
— Terps outgained Michigan State 489-321 in 27-13 win LW.
— Maryland’s only loss: 34-27 (+17) @ Michigan.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 94 starts return on offensive line; junior QB has 17 starts
— Under Locksley, Maryland is 6-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Locksley, Terps are 8-17 ATS in conference games (2-0 TY).
— Maryland gave up 243 YR in its loss; 151 or less in wins.
— Under is 4-1 in Maryland games this season.
— These teams haven’t met since 2019.
— Maryland won two of three meetings since 2006.
— Purdue (+10.5) lost 50-7 at Maryland in 2016.
Tennessee @ LSU
Tennessee (4-0)
— Tennessee won its first four games, scoring 48.8 ppg.
— Vols have thrown ball for 365.8 yards/game so far.
— Vols’ best wins: 34-27 at Pitt, 38-31 over Florida.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 91 starts back on offensive line (4 starters); senior QB has 11 starts
— Last 2+ years, Vols are 3-1 ATS as a road favorite
— In his career, Heupel is 8-8 ATS as a road favorite.
— Tennessee gave up 453 PY in the Florida game.
LSU (4-1)
— LSU won four in row since 24-23 loss to Florida State in opener.
— LSU was outgained 438-270 in LW’s 21-17 win at Auburn.
— Tigers are 2-0 in SEC; they beat Miss State 31-16, running for 206 yards.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 41 starts back on offensive line; QB started 29 games at Arizona State
— Since 2017, LSU is 5-2-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— In his career, Kelly is 13-5-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last 3+ years, LSU is 17-10 ATS coming off a win.
— Four of their five games stayed under the total.
— LSU won last five series games (2-2-1 ATS)
— Vols are 2-1 ATS in last three visits to Baton Rouge.
— Last four series games stayed under the total.
Texas vs Oklahoma (@ Dallas)
Texas (3-2)
— Last three games, Longhorns scored 41-34-38 points.
— Texas lost 20-19 at home to Alabama, 37-34 at Texas Tech.
— Since 2018, they’re 4-8 ATS as a road favorite.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 72 starts back on offensive line.
— Redshirt freshman QB Evers is a transfer from Ohio State.
— went 32-18 SU with Herman as HC; are 8-9 SU with Sarkisian.
— Since 2014, Texas is 12-4 ATS on neutral fields.
Oklahoma (3-2)
— QB Gabriel was knocked silly LW; check status.
— Oklahoma lost first two Big X games, 41-34/55-24.
— Sooners scored 33+ points in four of their five games.
— Last two games, Oklahoma gave up 275-361 rushing yards.
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 125 starts back on offensive line; soph QB had 25 starts at UCF
— Since 2017, Oklahoma is 5-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Since 2018, Sooners are 4-3 ATS coming off a loss.
— Oklahoma won six of last seven series games.
— Sooners won last two meetings, 55-48/53-45.
— Over is 3-1 in last four series games.
— Last time Texas was favored over Oklahoma: 2009.
Utah @ UCLA
Utah (4-1)
— Utes won first two Pac-12 tilts: 34-13 @ ASU, 42-16 Oregon State.
— Utah’s only loss was 26-23 (-2.5) at Florida.
— Last three games, Utah is +7 in turnovers.
— Utes have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 73 starts back on offensive line; junior QB started 12 games
— Utah is 2-5 ATS in last seven games as a road favorite.
— Last 3+ years, Utes are 18-8 ATS coming off a win.
— Since 2016, Utah is 37-18 ATS in Pac-12 games.
UCLA (5-0)
— UCLA scored 40.5 ppg in its four I-A wins.
— Bruins won first two Pac-12 games, 45-17/40-32.
— 6 starters back on offense, 2 on defense
— 84 starts back on offensive line; senior QB has 35 starts
— Under Kelly, they’re 7-5 ATS as a home underdog.
— UCLA is 12-6 ATS in last 18 Pac-12 games.
— Last 3+ years, are 11-6 ATS coming off a win.
— All four of their I-A games went over the total.
— Utah won/covered last five series games, scoring 41+ every time.
— Utes covered their last four visits to Pasadena (3-1 SU).
— Over is 3-1-1 in last five series games.
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State
Texas Tech (3-2)
— Red Raiders are 0-2 on road: 27-14 at NC State, 37-28 at K-State.
— Texas Tech’s I-A wins: 33-30 Houston, 37-34 Texas.
— Last 3+ years, they’re 4-9 ATS as a road underdog.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 124 starts back on offensive line; junior QB had 11 starts at Oregon
— Last two games, Red Raiders allowed 426-459 TY.
— Tech is 6-1 ATS in last seven games coming off a loss.
— Red Raiders are 3-0 scoring 33+ points, 0-2 when they don’t.
Oklahoma State (4-0)
— OSU won Big X opener 36-25 at Baylor, despite giving up 345 PY.
— Cowboys scored 58-34-36 points in its I-A wins.
— OSU gave up 546 TY to Central Michigan, 457 TY at Baylor.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 32 starts
— Since 2018, State is 13-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— OSU is 19-8-1 ATS last 28 games coming off a win.
— Since 2019, Cowboys are 18-10-1 ATS in Big X games.
— Oklahoma State won 11 of last 13 series games.
— Tech covered their last four visits to Stillwater.
— Over is 6-3-1 in last ten series games.
North Carolina @ Miami
North Carolina (4-1)
— UNC scored 35+ points in its three I-A wins.
— Tar Heels gave up 287 rushing yards in 45-32 loss to Notre Dame.
— Tar Heels gave up 235+ rushing yards in three of last four games.
— 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 104 starts back on offensive line; they have a redshirt freshman QB.
— UNC lost last 10 times they scored less than 34 points.
— Last 3+ years, they’re 2-4 ATS as road underdogs.
— Carolina is 5-11-1 ATS last 16 games coming off a win.
Miami (2-2)
— Miami lost last two games: 17-9 at Texas A&M, 45-31 MTSU.
— Miami’s only I-A win: 30-7 over Southern Miss.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 137 starts back on offensive line; soph QB started 9 games
— In his career, Cristobal is 13-24-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last 2+ years, Miami is 4-9 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last two years, Hurricanes were 9-8 ATS in ACC games.
— Miami is 10-14 ATS in last 24 games coming off a loss.
— North Carolina won five of last seven series games.
— Tar Heels are 3-5 ATS in last eight visits to Miami.
— Last four series games went over the total.
Western Kentucky @ Tex-San Antonio
Western Kentucky (3-2)
— WKU allowed 33-34 points in losses, 0-17 in I-A wins.
— Hilltoppers gained 545-470 TY in their two losses.
— 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 39 starts back on offensive line; junior QB had 25 starts at a D2 school
— Under Helton, they’re 12-5 ATS as an underdog.
— WKU is 15-8-1 ATS in last 24 conference games
— WKU’s last three games went over the total.
— Helton is their 6th head coach in last ten years.
Tex-San Antonio (3-2)
— UTSA gave up 36.5 ppg in its four I-A games.
— Roadrunners gave up 452+ yards in last four games.
— UTSA has 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
— Roadrunners have 121 returning starts on offensive line.
— UTSA has senior QB with 28 career starts.
— Roadrunners are 22-9 SU under Traylor (26-46 from 2014-19).
— UTSA is 6-5 ATS last 11 games as a home favorite.
— Three of their four I-A games went over the total.
— UTSA beat Western Kentucky twice LY, 52-46/49-41.
— Before that, teams’ previous meeting was in 2014.
— WKU threw for 523-577 yards in LY’s meetings, still lost both.
Iowa @ Illinois
Iowa (3-2)
— Hawkeyes gave up 11.8 ppg in their four I-A games.
— Hawkeyes’ losses: 10-7 Iowa State, 27-14 Michigan.
— Average total in Iowa’s I-A games: 30.5.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 44 starts return on offensive line; junior QB has 19 starts
— Since 2018, they’re 4-2-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Since 2015, Iowa is +65 in turnovers (93 games)
— Since 2019, Iowa is 4-5 ATS coming off a loss.
Illinois (4-1)
— Illinois won its last three games by combined score of 89-13.
— Indiana threw for 330 yards in 23-20 win over Illinois.
— Illini allowed 222 or fewer TY in its three I-A wins.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 74 starts return on offensive line; QB started 18 games at Syracuse.
— Since 2018, Illini is 6-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— Illinois is 18-10 ATS in its last 28 conference games.
— In his career, Bielema is 35-30 ATS as a home favorite.
— Iowa won eight in row, 13 of last 14 series games.
— Hawkeyes covered their last four visits to Illinois.
— Over is 4-1 in last five series games.
Washington State @ USC
Washington State (4-1)
— Coogs gave up 14-7-9 points in their three I-A wins.
— Wazzu (+17) won 17-14 at Wisconsin despite being outgained 401-253.
— Coogs’ only loss: 44-41 (+6.5) at home to Oregon.
— Ducks passed for 446 yards in that game.
— 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 31 starts back on offensive line; new QB was I-AA All-American at Incarnate Word.
— They’re 4-0-1 ATS last five games as a road underdog
— Coogs are 8-2-1 ATS in last 11 Pac-12 games.
— Wazzu is 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.
USC (5-0)
— Trojans scored 41+ points in four of their five wins.
— USC already has a +14 turnover margin.
— 8 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 109 starts back on offensive line; soph QB started 7 games at Oklahoma
— Since 2017, Trojans are 10-18 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2017, USC is 13-23 ATS in games coming off a win.
— In his career, Riley is 20-14 ATS as a home favorite.
— USC is 3-9 ATS in last dozen conference games.
— USC won three in row, 12 of last 14 series games.
— Coogs covered three of last four visits to the Coliseum.
— Under is 5-1 in last six series games.
Notre Dame vs BYU (@ Las Vegas)
Notre Dame (2-2)
— Notre Dame split its first four games (underdogs 4-0 ATS)
— Irish gained 576 yards in 45-32 win at UNC last game.
— Notre Dame 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Notre Dame has 83 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Notre Dame has freshman backup QB; this is his 3rd start.
— Since 2017, Notre Dame is 29-18-1 ATS as a favorite (0-2 TY).
— Notre Dame is minus-4 in turnovers this year.
— Last three years, Notre Dame is 22-10 ATS coming off a win.
BYU (4-1)
— BYU split road games: 50-21 at USF, 41-20 loss at Oregon.
— This game is on neutral field in a domed stadium.
— Cougars allowed 20+ points in all five games TY.
— BYU has 8 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— BYU has 90 returning starts on the offensive line.
— BYU has junior QB with 10 starts.
— BYU is 7-4 ATS last 11 games as an underdog (0-1 TY).
— Overall, Sitake is 15-9-1 ATS as an underdog.
— BYU gave up 20+ points in every game this year.
— Oregon ran for 212 yards against them; Utah State 204.
— These teams haven’t met since 2013.
K-State @ Iowa State
Kansas State (4-1)
— K-State won first two Big X tilts: 41-34 Oklahoma/37-28 Texas Tech
— K-State’s only loss: they got upset 17-10 at home by Tulane.
— Wildcats ran ball for 259.8 yards/game in their I-A games.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 50 starts back on offensive line; senior QB had 38 starts at Nebraska
— Under Klieman, K-State is 3-0 ATS as a road favorite.
— Under Klieman, K-State is 15-7 ATS coming off a win.
— Last 4+years, K-State is 25-13 ATS in conference games.
Iowa State (3-1)
— Iowa State lost its Big X opener 31-24 at home to Baylor LW.
— Cyclones won their only road game, 10-7 at Iowa.
— 5 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line.
— ISU’s new QB is completing 71.6% of his passes.
— Under Campbell, they’re 8-6-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Under Campbell, they’re 20-9-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Under Campbell, Cyclones are 32-22-2 ATS in conference games.
— Iowa State won three of last four series games.
— Wildcats are 1-3-1 ATS in last five visits to Ames.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.