| Date | W-L-T | % | Units | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/28/2022 | 5-3-0 | 62.50% | +850 | Detail |
| 12/27/2022 | 3-1-0 | 75.00% | +950 | Detail |
| 12/24/2022 | 0-2-0 | 0.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 12/23/2022 | 1-2-1 | 37.50% | -600 | Detail |
| 12/22/2022 | 1-1-0 | 50.00% | -50 | Detail |
| 12/21/2022 | 2-0-0 | 100.00% | +1000 | Detail |
| 12/20/2022 | 2-2-0 | 50.00% | -100 | Detail |
| 12/19/2022 | 0-2-0 | 0.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 12/17/2022 | 6-6-0 | 50.00% | -300 | Detail |
| 12/16/2022 | 3-1-0 | 75.00% | +950 | Detail |
Armadillo Sports
— Arkansas 55, Kansas 53, OT
Arkansas led 38-13 with 4:00 left in third quarter.
Kansas scored 15 points in last 1:05 to force overtime.
Jayhawks’ QB Daniels was 37-55/544 passing, with 5 TD’s.
Arkansas ran ball for 394 yards.
— Duke 30, Central Florida 13
Duke is now 35-12 ATS in its last 47 non-ACC games.
Blue Devils won five of last six games, overall.
UCF was 0-4 this season scoring less than 27 points.
Duke ran ball for 177 yards, was +2 in turnovers.
— Oregon 28, North Carolina 27
Ducks drove 79 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:19 left.
UNC converted 5-15 on 3rd down, 4-4 on 4th down.
Oregon ran ball for 209 yards (6.5 yards/carry).
Carolina lost its last four games, after a 9-1 start.
— Texas Tech 42, Ole Miss 25
Red Raiders led 26-7 at halftime.
Ole Miss turned ball over five times, Texas Tech three times.
Tech ran ball for 242 yards (5 yards/carry).
Penalties: Rebels had 8 for 86 yards, Tech 3 for 15.
— Texas Tech gave football coach Joey McGuire a six-year, $26.6M contract; Tech went 8-5 this season, their first 8-win season since 2013.
— Arkansas 55, Kansas 53, OT
Arkansas led 38-13 with 4:00 left in third quarter.
Kansas scored 15 points in last 1:05 to force overtime.
Jayhawks’ QB Daniels was 37-55/544 passing, with 5 TD’s.
Arkansas ran ball for 394 yards.
— Duke 30, Central Florida 13
Duke is now 35-12 ATS in its last 47 non-ACC games.
Blue Devils won five of last six games, overall.
UCF was 0-4 this season scoring less than 27 points.
Duke ran ball for 177 yards, was +2 in turnovers.
— Oregon 28, North Carolina 27
Ducks drove 79 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:19 left.
UNC converted 5-15 on 3rd down, 4-4 on 4th down.
Oregon ran ball for 209 yards (6.5 yards/carry).
Carolina lost its last four games, after a 9-1 start.
— Texas Tech 42, Ole Miss 25
Red Raiders led 26-7 at halftime.
Ole Miss turned ball over five times, Texas Tech three times.
Tech ran ball for 242 yards (5 yards/carry).
Penalties: Rebels had 8 for 86 yards, Tech 3 for 15.
— Texas Tech gave football coach Joey McGuire a six-year, $26.6M contract; Tech went 8-5 this season, their first 8-win season since 2013.
NCAAF
Weather Report
Bowl Season
Syracuse Orange Betting Analysis
Two-time all-conference running back Sean Tucker opted out of this game in order to focus on the NFL Draft, depriving Syracuse of its most explosive weapon on offense.
The Orange received even more bad news last week when standout left tackle Matthew Bergeron opted out after receiving a very good draft grade. That will put a lot of pressure on quarterback Garrett Shrader, and we have seen him fold in these moments.
Shrader is completing 65% of his passes for 2,310 yards (8.7 YPA) with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions on the year. He is also the leading rusher on the team with Tucker out, as Shrader ran for 415 yards (3.1 YPC) and seven touchdowns during the regular season.
The good news is that he will have his best receivers available for this game, including Oronde Gadsden II. Gadsden caught 54 passes for 891 yards and six touchdowns this season, proving to be a chip off the old block.
Syracuse ranked 50th in Defensive SP+ this season. This was one of Dino Babers’ better defenses, as they have typically struggled given how quick the offense runs. However, a sharp secondary will be much worse than we saw during the regular season due to injuries, transfers, and opt outs.
Star cornerback Garrett Williams suffered a season-ending injury in late October and is now focusing on the NFL Draft. Fellow starters in the secondary Darian Chestnut and Ja’Had Carter entered the transfer portal, so it was huge for the Orange to get Jeremiah Wilson back.
Wilson put his name in the transfer portal too but decided to come back and will now be the anchor of this unit.
Minnesota Golden Gophers Betting Analysis
If Tanner Morgan is unable to play or is limited, then freshman Athan Kaliakmanis will see the bulk of the snaps under center for Minnesota. Kaliakmanis isn’t nearly as polished of a passer as Morgan, completing just 52% of his passes for 866 yards (8.5 YPA) with three touchdowns and four interceptions.
The freshman is a much better scrambler though, averaging 4.7 YPC, and this offense will be very RPO heavy when he is under center. The star of Minnesota’s offense is Mohamed Ibrahim. He was a First Team All-Big Ten selection after running for over 1,500 yards and 19 touchdowns, as Ibrahim averaged 5.2 YPC.
Minnesota leaned on the ground game even more than it had in the recent past under P.J. Fleck as Morgan and standout receiver Chris Autman-Bell both suffered major injuries. This offensive line was led by First Team All-Big Ten center John Michael Schmitz, and the guards flanking him were both Third Team All-Big Ten selections.
Minnesota ranked fifth in Defensive SP+ this season. The Golden Gophers ranked in the top five in scoring defense (13.6 PPG) and total defense (287.3 YPG) as the secondary was superb. Safety Michael Dixon and linebacker Braelen Oliver will be missed after entering the transfer portal, but every other major contributor will be taking part in the bowl game.
They should be able to limit Syracuse’s offense, as teams fare much better against the Orange when they have more than one week to prepare for his scheme.
Oklahoma Sooners Betting Analysis
Oklahoma ranked 12th in Offensive SP+, but the Sooners will be missing quite a few of the starters from that unit in this game. Offensive tackles Wanya Morris and Anton Harrison both opted out of the Cheez-It Bowl in order to focus on the NFL Draft, and star running back Eric Gray is also saving his body from the extra wear and tear.
That will really hurt Oklahoma’s ground game as Gray was a Second Team All-Big 12 selection that ran for 1,366 yards (6.4 YPC) and 11 touchdowns in 2022. Neither Jovantae Barnes nor Marcus Major was as effective as the tandem combined to average just 4.4 YPC in a platoon behind Gray.
Dillon Gabriel was not as effective as offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby hoped he would be after transferring to Oklahoma from UCF. Gabriel put up nice numbers, completing 63% of his passes for 2,925 yards (8.5 YPA) with 24 touchdowns and six interceptions.
However, that pales in comparison to what we have seen from starters in this system over the last decade. Marvin Mims Jr. was a First Team All-Big 12 selection with 52 receptions for 1,006 yards and six touchdowns, and tight end Brayden Willis was a true red zone threat with 35 catches for 456 yards and seven touchdowns.
The Sooners have a mediocre defense, but what else is new? Even though Brent Venables was brought in to fix this side of the ball, Oklahoma was ranked 66th in Defensive SP+.
Jalen Redmond opted out of this game in order to prepare for the NFL Draft, and that’s a hit along the defensive line. However, this defense is pretty much intact aside for the absence of Redmond.
Florida State Seminoles Betting Analysis
The Seminoles received great news when Jordan Travis announced that he would both play in this bowl game and return for another season. Travis isn’t the type of quarterback that will thrive at the next level, but he is a star at this one.
He was a Second Team All-ACC selection after completing 63.2% of his passes for 2,796 yards (8.9 YPA) with 22 touchdowns and four interceptions. Travis is a superb runner too and picked up 367 yards and seven TDs on the ground while averaging 7.6 YPC when you exclude sack yardage.
Trey Benson heads a three-man backfield for Florida State alongside Treshaun Ward and Lawrance Toafili. Benson (6.8 YPC) and Ward (6.4 YPC) are the big play threats, while Toafili is the short yardage rusher.
Meanwhile, Johnny Wilson is a receiver that will be playing on Sundays and caught 35 passes for 695 yards and five touchdowns this season. The offensive line has improved by leaps and bounds too as it was one of the worst position groups in the Power Five under former coach Willie Taggart.
Florida State’s defense ranked 31st in SP+. The Seminoles allowed 20.8 PPG (17th nationally) and 320.3 YPG (13th nationally). Their two best players will be turning pro next season, but First Team All-ACC defensive end Jared Verse and First Team All-ACC safety Jammie Robinson will play in this game. That gives FSU a humongous boost as they are both game changing talents.
Texas Longhorns Betting Analysis
Quinn Ewers was a very highly touted recruit coming out of high school, but he failed to beat out C.J. Stroud for the starting job at Ohio State and was a bit underwhelming in his first year at Texas considering the expectations placed upon his shoulders.
Ewers completed just 56.6% of his passes for 1,808 yards (7.3 YPA) with 14 touchdowns and six interceptions. His performance tailed off markedly over the second half of the season, but he will definitely be the starter after backup Hudson Card entered the transfer portal.
Texas had one of the best ground games in the country in 2022, but two-time First Team All-Big 12 running back Bijan Robinson and backup Roschon Johnson opted out of the Alamo Bowl in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. Robinson and Johnson ran for 2,134 yards and 23 touchdowns this season while averaging 6.0 YPC, and that’s a huge loss for the Longhorns.
The good news is that the trio of primary pass catchers is still intact as receivers Xavier Worthy and Jordan Whittington are still active alongside tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders. No other receiver has more than five receptions, so they can’t afford to lose one of these players.
The Longhorns ranked 14th in Defensive SP+. Texas finally shored up its issues on this side of the ball, allowing 4.7 yards per play. This defense didn’t create a lot of havoc plays, instead focusing on the fundamentals in order to show improvement.
Unfortunately, they won’t have First Team All-Big 12 linebacker DeMarvion Overshown in this game as he is entering the NFL Draft, but leading tackler Jaylan Ford will be on the field on Thursday night.
Washington Huskies Betting Analysis
New head coach Kalen DeBoer had a great first season in charge of Washington. The Huskies went 10-2 and challenged for the PAC 12 Championship, as Indiana transfer quarterback Michael Penix thrived out west.
Penix managed to stay relatively healthy after an injury-plagued career in Bloomington, and he completed 66% of his passes for 4,354 yards (8.7 YPA) with 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He doesn’t take off as much as he used to because of injury concerns, but he can still pick up chunks of yards with his legs from time to time.
Washington boasted two all-conference offensive linemen in Jaxson Kirkland and Troy Fautanu. Wayne Taulapapa was the leading rusher with 779 yards (6.2 YPC) and 10 touchdowns, while Cameron Davis was a short yardage back that found the end zone 13 times.
First Team All-PAC 12 WR Rome Odunze was the leading receiver with 70 receptions for 1,088 yards and seven touchdowns, and his presence allowed Jalen McMillan to finish with a similar stat line (71 catches for 1,040 yards and eight TDs).
The Huskies have the 59th ranked defense by SP+. Washington isn’t as strong on this side of the ball as it was under Chris Petersen and Jimmy Lake.
The front seven performed well, but the secondary was porous and conceded 8.1 YPA and 259.2 YPG through the air. It will be important for First Team All-PAC 12 defensive linemen Bralen Trice and Jeremiah Martin to apply pressure as they teamed up to record 16.5 of Washington’s 35 total sacks.
Weather Report
Bowl Season
Syracuse Orange Betting Analysis
Two-time all-conference running back Sean Tucker opted out of this game in order to focus on the NFL Draft, depriving Syracuse of its most explosive weapon on offense.
The Orange received even more bad news last week when standout left tackle Matthew Bergeron opted out after receiving a very good draft grade. That will put a lot of pressure on quarterback Garrett Shrader, and we have seen him fold in these moments.
Shrader is completing 65% of his passes for 2,310 yards (8.7 YPA) with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions on the year. He is also the leading rusher on the team with Tucker out, as Shrader ran for 415 yards (3.1 YPC) and seven touchdowns during the regular season.
The good news is that he will have his best receivers available for this game, including Oronde Gadsden II. Gadsden caught 54 passes for 891 yards and six touchdowns this season, proving to be a chip off the old block.
Syracuse ranked 50th in Defensive SP+ this season. This was one of Dino Babers’ better defenses, as they have typically struggled given how quick the offense runs. However, a sharp secondary will be much worse than we saw during the regular season due to injuries, transfers, and opt outs.
Star cornerback Garrett Williams suffered a season-ending injury in late October and is now focusing on the NFL Draft. Fellow starters in the secondary Darian Chestnut and Ja’Had Carter entered the transfer portal, so it was huge for the Orange to get Jeremiah Wilson back.
Wilson put his name in the transfer portal too but decided to come back and will now be the anchor of this unit.
Minnesota Golden Gophers Betting Analysis
If Tanner Morgan is unable to play or is limited, then freshman Athan Kaliakmanis will see the bulk of the snaps under center for Minnesota. Kaliakmanis isn’t nearly as polished of a passer as Morgan, completing just 52% of his passes for 866 yards (8.5 YPA) with three touchdowns and four interceptions.
The freshman is a much better scrambler though, averaging 4.7 YPC, and this offense will be very RPO heavy when he is under center. The star of Minnesota’s offense is Mohamed Ibrahim. He was a First Team All-Big Ten selection after running for over 1,500 yards and 19 touchdowns, as Ibrahim averaged 5.2 YPC.
Minnesota leaned on the ground game even more than it had in the recent past under P.J. Fleck as Morgan and standout receiver Chris Autman-Bell both suffered major injuries. This offensive line was led by First Team All-Big Ten center John Michael Schmitz, and the guards flanking him were both Third Team All-Big Ten selections.
Minnesota ranked fifth in Defensive SP+ this season. The Golden Gophers ranked in the top five in scoring defense (13.6 PPG) and total defense (287.3 YPG) as the secondary was superb. Safety Michael Dixon and linebacker Braelen Oliver will be missed after entering the transfer portal, but every other major contributor will be taking part in the bowl game.
They should be able to limit Syracuse’s offense, as teams fare much better against the Orange when they have more than one week to prepare for his scheme.
Oklahoma Sooners Betting Analysis
Oklahoma ranked 12th in Offensive SP+, but the Sooners will be missing quite a few of the starters from that unit in this game. Offensive tackles Wanya Morris and Anton Harrison both opted out of the Cheez-It Bowl in order to focus on the NFL Draft, and star running back Eric Gray is also saving his body from the extra wear and tear.
That will really hurt Oklahoma’s ground game as Gray was a Second Team All-Big 12 selection that ran for 1,366 yards (6.4 YPC) and 11 touchdowns in 2022. Neither Jovantae Barnes nor Marcus Major was as effective as the tandem combined to average just 4.4 YPC in a platoon behind Gray.
Dillon Gabriel was not as effective as offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby hoped he would be after transferring to Oklahoma from UCF. Gabriel put up nice numbers, completing 63% of his passes for 2,925 yards (8.5 YPA) with 24 touchdowns and six interceptions.
However, that pales in comparison to what we have seen from starters in this system over the last decade. Marvin Mims Jr. was a First Team All-Big 12 selection with 52 receptions for 1,006 yards and six touchdowns, and tight end Brayden Willis was a true red zone threat with 35 catches for 456 yards and seven touchdowns.
The Sooners have a mediocre defense, but what else is new? Even though Brent Venables was brought in to fix this side of the ball, Oklahoma was ranked 66th in Defensive SP+.
Jalen Redmond opted out of this game in order to prepare for the NFL Draft, and that’s a hit along the defensive line. However, this defense is pretty much intact aside for the absence of Redmond.
Florida State Seminoles Betting Analysis
The Seminoles received great news when Jordan Travis announced that he would both play in this bowl game and return for another season. Travis isn’t the type of quarterback that will thrive at the next level, but he is a star at this one.
He was a Second Team All-ACC selection after completing 63.2% of his passes for 2,796 yards (8.9 YPA) with 22 touchdowns and four interceptions. Travis is a superb runner too and picked up 367 yards and seven TDs on the ground while averaging 7.6 YPC when you exclude sack yardage.
Trey Benson heads a three-man backfield for Florida State alongside Treshaun Ward and Lawrance Toafili. Benson (6.8 YPC) and Ward (6.4 YPC) are the big play threats, while Toafili is the short yardage rusher.
Meanwhile, Johnny Wilson is a receiver that will be playing on Sundays and caught 35 passes for 695 yards and five touchdowns this season. The offensive line has improved by leaps and bounds too as it was one of the worst position groups in the Power Five under former coach Willie Taggart.
Florida State’s defense ranked 31st in SP+. The Seminoles allowed 20.8 PPG (17th nationally) and 320.3 YPG (13th nationally). Their two best players will be turning pro next season, but First Team All-ACC defensive end Jared Verse and First Team All-ACC safety Jammie Robinson will play in this game. That gives FSU a humongous boost as they are both game changing talents.
Texas Longhorns Betting Analysis
Quinn Ewers was a very highly touted recruit coming out of high school, but he failed to beat out C.J. Stroud for the starting job at Ohio State and was a bit underwhelming in his first year at Texas considering the expectations placed upon his shoulders.
Ewers completed just 56.6% of his passes for 1,808 yards (7.3 YPA) with 14 touchdowns and six interceptions. His performance tailed off markedly over the second half of the season, but he will definitely be the starter after backup Hudson Card entered the transfer portal.
Texas had one of the best ground games in the country in 2022, but two-time First Team All-Big 12 running back Bijan Robinson and backup Roschon Johnson opted out of the Alamo Bowl in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. Robinson and Johnson ran for 2,134 yards and 23 touchdowns this season while averaging 6.0 YPC, and that’s a huge loss for the Longhorns.
The good news is that the trio of primary pass catchers is still intact as receivers Xavier Worthy and Jordan Whittington are still active alongside tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders. No other receiver has more than five receptions, so they can’t afford to lose one of these players.
The Longhorns ranked 14th in Defensive SP+. Texas finally shored up its issues on this side of the ball, allowing 4.7 yards per play. This defense didn’t create a lot of havoc plays, instead focusing on the fundamentals in order to show improvement.
Unfortunately, they won’t have First Team All-Big 12 linebacker DeMarvion Overshown in this game as he is entering the NFL Draft, but leading tackler Jaylan Ford will be on the field on Thursday night.
Washington Huskies Betting Analysis
New head coach Kalen DeBoer had a great first season in charge of Washington. The Huskies went 10-2 and challenged for the PAC 12 Championship, as Indiana transfer quarterback Michael Penix thrived out west.
Penix managed to stay relatively healthy after an injury-plagued career in Bloomington, and he completed 66% of his passes for 4,354 yards (8.7 YPA) with 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He doesn’t take off as much as he used to because of injury concerns, but he can still pick up chunks of yards with his legs from time to time.
Washington boasted two all-conference offensive linemen in Jaxson Kirkland and Troy Fautanu. Wayne Taulapapa was the leading rusher with 779 yards (6.2 YPC) and 10 touchdowns, while Cameron Davis was a short yardage back that found the end zone 13 times.
First Team All-PAC 12 WR Rome Odunze was the leading receiver with 70 receptions for 1,088 yards and seven touchdowns, and his presence allowed Jalen McMillan to finish with a similar stat line (71 catches for 1,040 yards and eight TDs).
The Huskies have the 59th ranked defense by SP+. Washington isn’t as strong on this side of the ball as it was under Chris Petersen and Jimmy Lake.
The front seven performed well, but the secondary was porous and conceded 8.1 YPA and 259.2 YPG through the air. It will be important for First Team All-PAC 12 defensive linemen Bralen Trice and Jeremiah Martin to apply pressure as they teamed up to record 16.5 of Washington’s 35 total sacks.
NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
December 31
Music City Bowl (@ Nashville)
Iowa vs Kentucky
Iowa (7-5)
— Hawkeyes won four of last five games, after a 3-4 start.
— Iowa allowed 13 or fewer points in all seven wins.
— Hawkeyes are 0-3 allowing more than 13 points.
— Average total in Iowa’s I-A games: 33.9.
— Hawkeyes have been held under 300 yards in 9 of 12 games.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 44 starts return on offensive line; junior QB has 19 starts
— Since 2018, they’re 5-3-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Since 2015, Iowa is +68 in turnovers (98 games)
— Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Iowa won three of last four bowl games (4-0 ATS)
Kentucky (7-5)
— QB Levis is skipping in this game, is turning pro.
— Kentucky is 3-5 in last eight games, after a 4-0 start.
— Wildcats are 6-0 when they score 26+, 1-5 if they score less than 26.
— Kentucky gained less than 300 TY in three of last five games.
— Wildcats are 1-4 when they allow 22+ points.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 45 starts back on offensive line; junior QB 13 starts
— Kentucky covered eight of last nine games as an underdog.
— Last three games, Wildcats allowed 225 rushing yards/game.
— Last eight Kentucky games stayed under the total.
— Wildcats won their last four bowls, all by 7 or fewer points.
— Kentucky (-3.5) beat Iowa 20-17 last year in the Citrus Bowl.
— Underdogs are 3-1 ATS last four Music City Bowls.
— SEC teams are 4-1 ATS in last five Music City Bowls.
— Since 2019, Big 14 teams are 9-4 ATS in bowls vs SEC teams.
Sugar Bowl (@ New Orleans)
Alabama vs Kansas State
Alabama (10-2)
— Alabama won its last three games, scoring 30-34-49 points.
— Alabama gave up 52-32 points in its two losses.
— Crimson Tide scored 30+ points in its last six games.
— Crimson Tide is 19-13-1 ATS last 33 games as a favorite.
— Alabama is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 non-conference games.
— This is only Alabama’s 2nd game this year with single-digit spread.
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 104 starts back on offensive line; soph QB 15 starts
— Alabama gained 465+ TY in three of last four games.
— Alabama is minus-2 in turnovers (+76 from 2015-21)
— Crimson Tide won five of its last seven bowls.
Kansas State (10-3)
— K-State is 9-0 scoring 31+ points, 1-3 when they score less.
— K-State won its last four games, scoring 31-48-47-31 points.
— Under Klieman, Wildcats are 14-9 ATS as an underdog.
— K-State is 7-2 ATS in games with a single-digit spread.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 50 starts back on offensive line; senior QB had 38 starts at Nebraska
— Under Klieman, K-State is 7-4 ATS in non-conference games.
— K-State is +14 in turnovers this season.
— Wildcats are 3-2 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Over is 6-4 in Wildcats’ last ten games.
— K-State won three of its last four bowls, scoring 31.8 ppg.
— Alabama has 75 players who were 4 or 5-star recruits; K-State has 3.
— Underdogs won/covered three of last four Sugar Bowls.
— Last ten years, SEC teams are 3-6 SU in this bowl.
— Last three years, Big X teams are 6-1 ATS vs SEC teams.
Fiesta Bowl (@ Phoenix)
Michigan vs TCU
TCU (12-1)
— TCU scored 34+ points in 10 of 13 games this season.
— Last three games, Frogs allowed 198.7 rushing yards/game.
— TCU is 8-13-1 ATS in last 22 games as an underdog.
— in his career, Dykes is 32-34-1 ATS as an underdog.
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 113 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 29 starts
— Horned Frogs gained 400+ TY in 11 of their 13 games.
— TCU is +9 in turnovers this season.
— In his career, Dykes is 83-64 SU; this is his 4th HC job.
— Four of last five TCU games stayed under the total.
— TCU won three of its last four bowl games SU.
Michigan (12-0)
— Letdown spot after Michigan hammered Ohio State last week.
— Michigan ran ball for 252+ yards in five of last six games.
— Wolverines held 9 of 12 opponents under 300 TY.
— Ohio State threw for 349 yards, had 492 TY vs Michigan LW.
— 9 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 85 starts return on offensive line; soph QB has 15 starts
— Wolverines are 15-6-1 ATS last 22 games as a favorite.
— Michigan is 6-1 ATS in last seven non-conference games.
— Under is 8-4-1 in their games this season.
— Michigan lost its last five bowls (favored in 3 of the 5)
— Wolverines scored 15.3 ppg in their last four bowls.
— Favorites won/covered four of last five Fiesta Bowls.
— Big X underdogs are 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 games against Big 14.
Peach Bowl (@ Atlanta)
Ohio State vs Georgia
Ohio State (11-1)
— Ohio State scored 40+ points in nine of 12 games.
— Buckeyes gave up 30-45 points in their last two games.
— OSU gave up 318-278 PY in those two games.
— 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— have 69 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 12 starts.
— Ohio State is underdog for first time since ’20 national title game.
— Last 11 years, Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS as an underdog.
— Buckeyes lost 45-23 to Michigan, their first loss this season.
— Nine of their last ten games went over the total.
— Ohio State is 4-2 in last six bowls, giving up 52-45 points in last two.
Georgia (13-0)
— Dawgs have 12 wins by 10+ points (beat Missouri 26-22).
— 10 of their 13 wins are by 17+ points.
— 7 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
— 62 starts back on offensive line; senior QB has 17 starts
— Smart is 21-8 ATS as a favorite away from home.
— Dawgs are 7-1 ATS in last seven non-conference games.
— Last three games, Georgia ran ball for 255.3 yards/game.
— Dawgs held 11 of 13 foes to 100 or fewer rushing yards.
— Dawgs are 19-10 ATS in last 29 games as a favorite.
— Over is 3-1 in Georgia’s last four games.
— Georgia won its last four bowl games (3-1 ATS)
— Underdogs are 6-4 ATS last ten Peach Bowls.
— Average total in last five Peach Bowls: 61.0.
— Since 2017, Big 14 teams are 20-10 SU vs ACC teams.
— Big 14 teams are 14-10 ATS last 24 games vs ACC teams.
NCAAF
Bowl Season
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Trend Report
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Alabama @ Kansas State
Alabama
Alabama is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games
Alabama is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Kansas State
Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Iowa @ Kentucky
Iowa
Iowa is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Iowa is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Kentucky
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kentucky's last 5 games
Kentucky is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games
Texas Christian @ Michigan
Texas Christian
Texas Christian is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas Christian's last 5 games
Michigan
Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Ohio State @ Georgia
Ohio State
Ohio State is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Ohio State's last 10 games
Georgia
Georgia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia's last 6 games
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Saturday, December 31
Sugar Bowl Trends
Alabama vs. Kansas State (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Nick Saban surprisingly just 6-9 vs. spread last 15 bowl/playoff games.
Cats 1-1 SU and vs. line in bowls for Klieman.
Cats on 12-5-1 spread surge since mid 2021, and covered last four this season.
Saban 1-5-1 last seven vs. spread in 2022, now 1-5 vs. spread last six away from Tuscaloosa.
Tech Play: Kansas State
Music City Bowl Trends
Iowa vs. Kentucky (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Ugh! Rematch of Citrus Bowl LY won by Cats 20-17.
Mark Stoops has now won last four bowls outright and 3-1-1 vs. line last five bowls.
Kirk Ferentz 3-1 SU, 3-0-1 vs. points last four bowls.
Cats 10-4-1 vs. spread since late 2021, also 5-1 as dog this season.
Hawkeyes won and covered 4 of last 5 in 2022.
UK “under” 12-1 since late 2021, Iowa “under” 9-4 since late 2021.
Tech Play: Kentucky & Under
Fiesta Bowl Trends
TCU vs. Michigan (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Frogs haven’t bowled since 2018 Cheez-it win over Cal in the Gary Patterson era, though Sonny Dykes 0-1 in bowls at SMU (2019 Boca Raton).
Harbaugh 0-5 SU and vs. line in bowls/playoffs with Wolverines, most recently a loss last year vs. Georgia in Orange Bowl.
TCU 9-3 vs. spread this season (2-1 as dog), also “under” 4-1 last five after 6-2 “over” to begin season.
Michigan 19-7-1 vs. spread since start of 2021.
Wolves have seen “under” go 9-4-1 since late 2021.
Tech Play: TCU & Under
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl Trends
Ohio State vs. Georgia (ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Kirby Smart won and covered both playoff games last year.
Bucks now 1-3 vs. spread last four bowls/playoffs under Ryan Day.
OSU just 1-4 vs. spread last five bowls.
Georgia is 17-11 vs. spread since last season, though modest 7-6 in 2022.
OSU 1-4 vs. spread last five this season.
Bucks on 10-3 “over” ruin since late 2021.
Tech Play: Georgia & Over
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
December 31
Music City Bowl (@ Nashville)
Iowa vs Kentucky
Iowa (7-5)
— Hawkeyes won four of last five games, after a 3-4 start.
— Iowa allowed 13 or fewer points in all seven wins.
— Hawkeyes are 0-3 allowing more than 13 points.
— Average total in Iowa’s I-A games: 33.9.
— Hawkeyes have been held under 300 yards in 9 of 12 games.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 44 starts return on offensive line; junior QB has 19 starts
— Since 2018, they’re 5-3-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Since 2015, Iowa is +68 in turnovers (98 games)
— Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Iowa won three of last four bowl games (4-0 ATS)
Kentucky (7-5)
— QB Levis is skipping in this game, is turning pro.
— Kentucky is 3-5 in last eight games, after a 4-0 start.
— Wildcats are 6-0 when they score 26+, 1-5 if they score less than 26.
— Kentucky gained less than 300 TY in three of last five games.
— Wildcats are 1-4 when they allow 22+ points.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 45 starts back on offensive line; junior QB 13 starts
— Kentucky covered eight of last nine games as an underdog.
— Last three games, Wildcats allowed 225 rushing yards/game.
— Last eight Kentucky games stayed under the total.
— Wildcats won their last four bowls, all by 7 or fewer points.
— Kentucky (-3.5) beat Iowa 20-17 last year in the Citrus Bowl.
— Underdogs are 3-1 ATS last four Music City Bowls.
— SEC teams are 4-1 ATS in last five Music City Bowls.
— Since 2019, Big 14 teams are 9-4 ATS in bowls vs SEC teams.
Sugar Bowl (@ New Orleans)
Alabama vs Kansas State
Alabama (10-2)
— Alabama won its last three games, scoring 30-34-49 points.
— Alabama gave up 52-32 points in its two losses.
— Crimson Tide scored 30+ points in its last six games.
— Crimson Tide is 19-13-1 ATS last 33 games as a favorite.
— Alabama is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 non-conference games.
— This is only Alabama’s 2nd game this year with single-digit spread.
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 104 starts back on offensive line; soph QB 15 starts
— Alabama gained 465+ TY in three of last four games.
— Alabama is minus-2 in turnovers (+76 from 2015-21)
— Crimson Tide won five of its last seven bowls.
Kansas State (10-3)
— K-State is 9-0 scoring 31+ points, 1-3 when they score less.
— K-State won its last four games, scoring 31-48-47-31 points.
— Under Klieman, Wildcats are 14-9 ATS as an underdog.
— K-State is 7-2 ATS in games with a single-digit spread.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 50 starts back on offensive line; senior QB had 38 starts at Nebraska
— Under Klieman, K-State is 7-4 ATS in non-conference games.
— K-State is +14 in turnovers this season.
— Wildcats are 3-2 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Over is 6-4 in Wildcats’ last ten games.
— K-State won three of its last four bowls, scoring 31.8 ppg.
— Alabama has 75 players who were 4 or 5-star recruits; K-State has 3.
— Underdogs won/covered three of last four Sugar Bowls.
— Last ten years, SEC teams are 3-6 SU in this bowl.
— Last three years, Big X teams are 6-1 ATS vs SEC teams.
Fiesta Bowl (@ Phoenix)
Michigan vs TCU
TCU (12-1)
— TCU scored 34+ points in 10 of 13 games this season.
— Last three games, Frogs allowed 198.7 rushing yards/game.
— TCU is 8-13-1 ATS in last 22 games as an underdog.
— in his career, Dykes is 32-34-1 ATS as an underdog.
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 113 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 29 starts
— Horned Frogs gained 400+ TY in 11 of their 13 games.
— TCU is +9 in turnovers this season.
— In his career, Dykes is 83-64 SU; this is his 4th HC job.
— Four of last five TCU games stayed under the total.
— TCU won three of its last four bowl games SU.
Michigan (12-0)
— Letdown spot after Michigan hammered Ohio State last week.
— Michigan ran ball for 252+ yards in five of last six games.
— Wolverines held 9 of 12 opponents under 300 TY.
— Ohio State threw for 349 yards, had 492 TY vs Michigan LW.
— 9 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 85 starts return on offensive line; soph QB has 15 starts
— Wolverines are 15-6-1 ATS last 22 games as a favorite.
— Michigan is 6-1 ATS in last seven non-conference games.
— Under is 8-4-1 in their games this season.
— Michigan lost its last five bowls (favored in 3 of the 5)
— Wolverines scored 15.3 ppg in their last four bowls.
— Favorites won/covered four of last five Fiesta Bowls.
— Big X underdogs are 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 games against Big 14.
Peach Bowl (@ Atlanta)
Ohio State vs Georgia
Ohio State (11-1)
— Ohio State scored 40+ points in nine of 12 games.
— Buckeyes gave up 30-45 points in their last two games.
— OSU gave up 318-278 PY in those two games.
— 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— have 69 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 12 starts.
— Ohio State is underdog for first time since ’20 national title game.
— Last 11 years, Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS as an underdog.
— Buckeyes lost 45-23 to Michigan, their first loss this season.
— Nine of their last ten games went over the total.
— Ohio State is 4-2 in last six bowls, giving up 52-45 points in last two.
Georgia (13-0)
— Dawgs have 12 wins by 10+ points (beat Missouri 26-22).
— 10 of their 13 wins are by 17+ points.
— 7 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
— 62 starts back on offensive line; senior QB has 17 starts
— Smart is 21-8 ATS as a favorite away from home.
— Dawgs are 7-1 ATS in last seven non-conference games.
— Last three games, Georgia ran ball for 255.3 yards/game.
— Dawgs held 11 of 13 foes to 100 or fewer rushing yards.
— Dawgs are 19-10 ATS in last 29 games as a favorite.
— Over is 3-1 in Georgia’s last four games.
— Georgia won its last four bowl games (3-1 ATS)
— Underdogs are 6-4 ATS last ten Peach Bowls.
— Average total in last five Peach Bowls: 61.0.
— Since 2017, Big 14 teams are 20-10 SU vs ACC teams.
— Big 14 teams are 14-10 ATS last 24 games vs ACC teams.
NCAAF
Bowl Season
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Alabama @ Kansas State
Alabama
Alabama is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games
Alabama is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Kansas State
Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Iowa @ Kentucky
Iowa
Iowa is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Iowa is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Kentucky
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kentucky's last 5 games
Kentucky is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games
Texas Christian @ Michigan
Texas Christian
Texas Christian is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas Christian's last 5 games
Michigan
Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Ohio State @ Georgia
Ohio State
Ohio State is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Ohio State's last 10 games
Georgia
Georgia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia's last 6 games
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Saturday, December 31
Sugar Bowl Trends
Alabama vs. Kansas State (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Nick Saban surprisingly just 6-9 vs. spread last 15 bowl/playoff games.
Cats 1-1 SU and vs. line in bowls for Klieman.
Cats on 12-5-1 spread surge since mid 2021, and covered last four this season.
Saban 1-5-1 last seven vs. spread in 2022, now 1-5 vs. spread last six away from Tuscaloosa.
Tech Play: Kansas State
Music City Bowl Trends
Iowa vs. Kentucky (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Ugh! Rematch of Citrus Bowl LY won by Cats 20-17.
Mark Stoops has now won last four bowls outright and 3-1-1 vs. line last five bowls.
Kirk Ferentz 3-1 SU, 3-0-1 vs. points last four bowls.
Cats 10-4-1 vs. spread since late 2021, also 5-1 as dog this season.
Hawkeyes won and covered 4 of last 5 in 2022.
UK “under” 12-1 since late 2021, Iowa “under” 9-4 since late 2021.
Tech Play: Kentucky & Under
Fiesta Bowl Trends
TCU vs. Michigan (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Frogs haven’t bowled since 2018 Cheez-it win over Cal in the Gary Patterson era, though Sonny Dykes 0-1 in bowls at SMU (2019 Boca Raton).
Harbaugh 0-5 SU and vs. line in bowls/playoffs with Wolverines, most recently a loss last year vs. Georgia in Orange Bowl.
TCU 9-3 vs. spread this season (2-1 as dog), also “under” 4-1 last five after 6-2 “over” to begin season.
Michigan 19-7-1 vs. spread since start of 2021.
Wolves have seen “under” go 9-4-1 since late 2021.
Tech Play: TCU & Under
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl Trends
Ohio State vs. Georgia (ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Kirby Smart won and covered both playoff games last year.
Bucks now 1-3 vs. spread last four bowls/playoffs under Ryan Day.
OSU just 1-4 vs. spread last five bowls.
Georgia is 17-11 vs. spread since last season, though modest 7-6 in 2022.
OSU 1-4 vs. spread last five this season.
Bucks on 10-3 “over” ruin since late 2021.
Tech Play: Georgia & Over
| Date | W-L-T | % | Units | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/29/2022 | 2-2-0 | 50.00% | -100 | Detail |
| 12/28/2022 | 5-3-0 | 62.50% | +850 | Detail |
| 12/27/2022 | 3-1-0 | 75.00% | +950 | Detail |
| 12/24/2022 | 0-2-0 | 0.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 12/23/2022 | 1-2-1 | 37.50% | -600 | Detail |
| 12/22/2022 | 1-1-0 | 50.00% | -50 | Detail |
| 12/21/2022 | 2-0-0 | 100.00% | +1000 | Detail |
| 12/20/2022 | 2-2-0 | 50.00% | -100 | Detail |
| 12/19/2022 | 0-2-0 | 0.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 12/17/2022 | 6-6-0 | 50.00% | -300 | Detail |
| 12/16/2022 | 3-1-0 | 75.00% | +950 | Detail |
NCAAF
Weather Report
Bowl Season
N.C. State Wolfpack Betting Analysis
The Wolfpack were very dangerous on offense when Devin Leary was on the field. However, NC State fell apart over the second half of the season after Leary went down with an injury.
Leary announced that he was transferring to Kentucky with the intention of replacing Will Levis earlier this month, so either M.J. Morris or Ben Finley will start under center for NC State.
Morris is reportedly healthy ahead of the bowl game after an injury-checkered last few weeks of the regular season, but head coach Dave Doeren has not declared whether Morris or Finley will be the starter.
Morris and Finley are both freshmen, so whoever gets the start is the presumptive No. 1 QB going into the 2023 season.
NC State’s offense already has plenty of questions as big play threat Devin Carter entered the transfer portal. No one knows whether or not explosive running back Demie Sumo-Karngbaye will be available for this game as he has been dealing with injuries, so Jordan Houston is likely to see the bulk of the carries.
Thayer Thomas leads the Wolfpack with 53 receptions for 588 yards and four touchdowns.
The Wolfpack ranked 13th in Defensive SP+. They had a strong front seven and forced a lot of turnovers in the secondary. Six different players recorded multiple interceptions with Aydan White leading NC State with four picks.
Devan Boykin may not be healthy enough to suit up in this game, but it looks like this unit will largely be intact.
Maryland Terrapins Betting Analysis
Taulia Tagovailoa has made a name for himself at Maryland since transferring over from Alabama after the 2019 season.
The younger brother of Tua Tagovailoa decided to make a name for himself after his brother was a Heisman Trophy finalist for the Crimson Tide, and he found a great landing spot with the Terrapins.
In his three seasons as a starter, Tagovailoa has completed over 68% of his passes for 7,658 yards (8.1 YPA) with 50 touchdowns and 24 interceptions.
However, he will be at a disadvantage in the bowl game as Maryland’s three most talented receivers are opting out to enter the NFL Draft.
Rakim Jarrett, Jacob Copeland, and Dontay Demus Jr. were all highly touted recruits coming out of high school. They didn’t post big numbers with the Terps this season, but Jarrett and Demus have dealt with injuries.
Tight end C.J. Dippre is also unavailable after entering the transfer portal. Jeshaun Jones and tight end Corey Dyches are both set to suit up though, and they each had 35 receptions or more this season.
Running back Roman Hemby will carry the load in the backfield, and he ran for 924 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 5.6 YPC this season. Hemby was also a factor in the passing game with 30+ receptions.
Maryland’s defense is ranked 46th in SP+. The Terps did a great job of limiting opponents in the passing game, allowing 6.3 YPA while keeping things in front of them.
Unfortunately, they will be without linebacker Ahmad McCullough, as he entered the transfer portal, and cornerback Deonte Banks opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft after a strong season.
Maryland did receive good news though when linebacker Durell Nchami announced that he would take part in the bowl game despite leaving school to prepare for the NFL Draft.
Pittsburgh Panthers Betting Analysis
Four-year backup Nick Patti will receive just his second start with the Pittsburgh Panthers on Friday at the Sun Bowl. Patti was the backup to Kenny Pickett for three years, and he was the secondary signal caller behind USC transfer Kedon Slovis this season.
Slovis re-entered the transfer portal and joined BYU earlier this month, so Patti will be called upon once more. In his four-year career at Pitt, he has completed 51 of 87 passes for 558 yards with four touchdowns and an interception.
Unfortunately for Patti, most of Pittsburgh’s best players on offense are not taking part in this bowl game. Standout running back Israel Abanikanda was a First Team All-ACC selection and ran for 1,431 yards and 20 touchdowns, so he is opting out to focus on the NFL Draft.
Offensive tackles Gabe Houy and Carter Warren are both opting out too, but the good news is that First Team All-ACC guard Marcus Minor did confirm he will play in this game.
Leading receiver Jared Wayne will also take part in the Sun Bowl after catching 55 passes for 1,012 yards with five touchdowns.
Standout defensive tackle Calijah Kancey was an All-American that drew comparisons to alum Aaron Donald, so Kancey is opting out in anticipation of being a first round pick. This defense is going to be without a lot more than just Kancey too as leading tackler SirVocea Dennis and second-leading tackler Brandon Hill are opting out.
Defensive lineman Habakkuk Baldonado is questionable to play due to injury, while edge rusher Deslin Alexandre also opted out in order to focus on the NFL Draft. Pittsburgh’s defense ranked 52nd in SP+, but this defense is a shadow of that one.
UCLA Bruins Betting Analysis
Meanwhile, UCLA will have almost its full complement of players for the Sun Bowl. For a while, we didn’t know the status of Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Zach Charbonnet, and Jake Bobo, but all three players seem set to start on Friday.
Super senior DTR had the best season of his career in 2022. He completed 69.8% of his passes for 2,883 yards (8.1 YPA) with 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
DTR was only sacked 15 times, and he was the second-leading rusher on the Bruins behind Charbonnet. He ran for 631 yards (5.6 YPC) and 11 touchdowns.
Charbonnet ran for 1,359 yards and 14 touchdowns while averaging 7.0 YPC this season. He was the third-leading receiver behind Bobo and Kazmeir Allen as well.
Bobo led the Bruins with 54 catches for 789 yards and seven touchdowns, while Allen had 49 receptions for 403 yards and two TDs.
This UCLA defense doesn’t need to do much considering how good the offense has been under Chip Kelly the last two years. The Bruins ranked 84th in Defensive SP+, but they did a very good job stopping the run (3.9 YPC).
Linebacker Laiatu Latu was superb with 9.5 sacks and three forced fumbles on his way to First Team All-PAC 12 honors.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Analysis
Tyler Buchner suffered what was thought to be a season-ending shoulder injury in Notre Dame’s Week 2 loss against Marshall.
However, Buchner was cleared to play in the Gator Bowl earlier this month after Drew Pyne announced that he was transferring to Arizona State.
It will be interesting to see how much Notre Dame decides to have him run in this game given he is coming off a shoulder injury, but he is at his best when he has the opportunity to run or throw.
The situation at tight end is dire. Michael Mayer was by far the best tight end in the country and hauled in 67 passes for 809 yards and nine touchdowns.
To no one’s surprise, Mayer opted to skip the bowl game since he is a lock to be a first round pick in the NFL Draft, but Holden Staes (one receptions for 11 yards) is the only tight end on the team with experience.
Cane Berrong entered the transfer portal, and Kevin Bauman and Eli Raridon are injured, stretching the depth at this position group.
Notre Dame is likely to have a run-heavy game plan since the top receiver is Lorenzo Styles with 30 receptions for 340 yards and a TD with Mayer out.
No one else has more than 20 receptions on the roster. This team has three solid running backs in Audric Estime, Logan Diggs, and Chris Tyree though.
Estime averaged 5.8 YPC and ran for 11 touchdowns, while Tyree is a receiving threat out of the backfield too.
The Fighting Irish are ranked 36th in Defensive SP+. They were great at getting to the quarterback this year, but their ability to do that will be severely limited without Isaiah Foskey.
He was responsible for 11 of Notre Dame’s 35 sacks, and no other player had more than three sacks.
Starting cornerback Cam Hart will miss this game due to injury, but Benjamin Morrison is set to start and led the Irish with five interceptions.
South Carolina Gamecocks Betting Analysis
Spencer Rattler will take part in the Gator Bowl, and there’s a decent chance that this is his last collegiate game. Rattler had an up-and-down season in Columbia to match his up-and-down time at Oklahoma, but there’s no doubt that he has the pure talent to play on Sunday if he can find more consistency.
Rattler absolutely torched No. 5 Tennessee’s defense in a 63-38 blowout victory, completing 30 of 37 passes for 438 yards and six touchdowns without a turnover. However, in his other 11 starts, he threw 10 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
There will be a lot of new faces in this offense though, especially at the skill positions. Top running back MarShawn Lloyd entered the transfer portal, and No. 3 running back Christian Beal-Smith is injured and considered doubtful to play.
Star tight end Jaheim Bell also entered the transfer portal, and No. 2 tight end Austin Stogner announced that he was returning to Oklahoma earlier this month.
No. 3 wide receiver Josh Vann didn’t make the trip to Jacksonville with the team, and No. 2 wide receiver Jalen Brooks is considered doubtful due to an unspecified issue.
That is sure to cause a lot of consternation at times, even with three weeks of practice to try and prepare for this game.
South Carolina had the best special teams in the country per SP+. This defense was above average by the same metric, but the Gamecocks will be missing three of their starters in the secondary.
Cam Smith, Darius Rush, and Devonni Reed have all opted out to enter the NFL Draft, so that will put a lot of pressure on safeties D.Q. Smith and Nick Emmanwori.
The Gamecocks’ front seven allowed 5.0 YPC and 197.2 YPG on the ground, so the Irish could have a lot of success with the ground game.
Ohio Bobcats Betting Analysis
MAC Offensive Player of the Year Kurtis Rourke was having a phenomenal season for Ohio. Rourke was an outstanding dual-threat quarterback like older brother Nathan Rourke, but he suffered a season-ending knee injury in mid-November. Sophomore C.J. Harris has ended up starting the last two games, and he hasn’t been nearly as effective. Harris has completed 27 of 52 passes for 359 yards with one touchdown and one interception. That led to the Bobcats losing in the MAC Championship Game once more.
Sieh Bangura was one of the top running backs in the MAC this season, and he will likely see more of a workload with Rourke injured. The freshman had at least 20 carries in each of his last four games, and Bangura ended the season running for 940 yards (4.8 YPC) and 12 touchdowns. First Team All-MAC wide receiver Sam Wiglusz should be the top target in the passing game with 69 receptions for 850 yards and 11 touchdowns. Jacoby Jones (17.4 YPR) and James Bostic (18.5 YPR) are big play threats, but they will likely be muted with Rourke out.
Ohio doesn’t have a good defense, ranking 95th nationally in SP+. However, the Bobcats were opportunistic and one of the best teams when it came to forcing turnovers. They had 11 interceptions and forced 15 fumbles (recovering 13 of those fumbles). Linebacker Bryce Houston was second on the team in tackles and led the Bobcats with 5.5 sacks. Zach Sanders and Tariq Drake tied for the team lead with three interceptions apiece.
Wyoming Cowboys Betting Analysis
The Wyoming offense has been extremely challenged ever since Josh Allen turned pro. Wyoming was ranked 123rd in Offensive SP+ this season as neither Andrew Peasley nor Jayden Clemons performed well under center. Peasley completed just 51.4% of his passes for 1,388 yards (5.7 YPA) with nine touchdowns and eight interceptions. He threw five picks in his last three games, so that led to Clemons seeing more action. Clemons has completed just 12 of 29 passes for 145 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions in relief, and he hasn’t been a marked improvement as a runner either. Peasley averaged 4.7 YPC and Clemons ran for 4.5 YPC.
Titus Swen led the Cowboys with 1,039 rushing yards (5.0 YPC) and eight touchdowns on the ground. However, he decided that he would enter the NFL Draft, and he won’t be taking part in the bowl game. Second-leading rusher Dawaiian McNeely averaged 5.7 YPC and third-leading rusher D.Q. James averaged 8.6 YPC, but both players are expected to miss this game due to injury. Joey Braasch (29 attempts) was the only other running back on the roster with experience, but he entered the transfer portal, so no one is quite sure what Craig Bohl will do at running back. Leading receiver Joshua Cobbs is in the portal too.
Wyoming has a solid defense, as the Cowboys rank 62nd in Defensive SP+. They have struggled at forcing turnovers this season, but they have done a very good job of getting after quarterbacks. Linebacker Easton Gibbs was a First Team All-MWC selection after leading the team in tackles, and DeVonne Harris, Jordan Bertagnole, Braden Siders, and Oluwaseyi Omotosho all recorded at least five sacks.
Tennessee Volunteers Betting Analysis
With Hendon Hooker out, the Tennessee Volunteers will be forced to start Joe Milton under center. Milton transferred in from Michigan last year and was originally the starting quarterback ahead of Hooker. However, the same inconsistency that plagued him in Ann Arbor eventually led to Milton being benched. He has thrived in limited action this year though, completing 34 of 54 passes for 720 yards and seven touchdowns.
Milton will not have the benefit of throwing to Tennessee’s top two receivers though. Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman both made the decision to opt out of this game in order to focus on the NFL Draft. The Volunteers still have players like Bru McCoy, Ramel Keyton, and Squirrel White, but they aren’t as talented as Hyatt and Tillman. Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small will split carries at running back, and they could play more of a role in this game. Left tackle Darnell Wright will enter the NFL Draft in a few months, but he has decided to play in this bowl game.
The Volunteers were excellent against the run in 2022. They allowed just 3.3 YPC, so opponents took to the air almost 40 times a game in order to try to keep up with this high-octane offense. Linebacker Jeremy Banks opted out of this game in order to start his NFL career, but defensive end Byron Young will close out his collegiate career in the Orange Bowl before heading to the next level. That’s great news for the Vols as Young was a First Team All-SEC selection this season.
Clemson Tigers Betting Analysis
After two underwhelming years under center, Clemson and D.J. Uiagalelei have officially parted ways. Uiagalelei did show improvement from last season to this season, greatly improving his touchdown to interception ratio, but the school and the player were both ready to move on from one another. The Cade Klubnik era is now officially underway, and Clemson hopes he can be more like Deshaun Watson or Trevor Lawrence and less like Tahj Boyd or Kelly Bryant.
Klubnik completed 31 of 46 passes for 377 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in limited action this season. He is a quality dual threat that averaged 4.0 YPC, so look for a good mix of RPO in the play calling on Friday night. No. 3 receiver Beaux Collins is injured and will miss the Orange Bowl, but top two receivers Antonio Williams and Joseph Ngata will be available. Perhaps more importantly, the entire offensive line and Will Shipley Jr. is ready to go, giving Klubnik a lot of help in his first start.
Clemson ranked 23rd in Defensive SP+ at the end of the regular season. The Tigers won’t have defensive end Myles Murphy and linebacker Trenton Simpson available for this game after both players decided to opt out in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. However, the good news for Dabo Swinney and company is that it sounds like every other major contributor will suit up, including Bryan Bresee.
Weather Report
Bowl Season
N.C. State Wolfpack Betting Analysis
The Wolfpack were very dangerous on offense when Devin Leary was on the field. However, NC State fell apart over the second half of the season after Leary went down with an injury.
Leary announced that he was transferring to Kentucky with the intention of replacing Will Levis earlier this month, so either M.J. Morris or Ben Finley will start under center for NC State.
Morris is reportedly healthy ahead of the bowl game after an injury-checkered last few weeks of the regular season, but head coach Dave Doeren has not declared whether Morris or Finley will be the starter.
Morris and Finley are both freshmen, so whoever gets the start is the presumptive No. 1 QB going into the 2023 season.
NC State’s offense already has plenty of questions as big play threat Devin Carter entered the transfer portal. No one knows whether or not explosive running back Demie Sumo-Karngbaye will be available for this game as he has been dealing with injuries, so Jordan Houston is likely to see the bulk of the carries.
Thayer Thomas leads the Wolfpack with 53 receptions for 588 yards and four touchdowns.
The Wolfpack ranked 13th in Defensive SP+. They had a strong front seven and forced a lot of turnovers in the secondary. Six different players recorded multiple interceptions with Aydan White leading NC State with four picks.
Devan Boykin may not be healthy enough to suit up in this game, but it looks like this unit will largely be intact.
Maryland Terrapins Betting Analysis
Taulia Tagovailoa has made a name for himself at Maryland since transferring over from Alabama after the 2019 season.
The younger brother of Tua Tagovailoa decided to make a name for himself after his brother was a Heisman Trophy finalist for the Crimson Tide, and he found a great landing spot with the Terrapins.
In his three seasons as a starter, Tagovailoa has completed over 68% of his passes for 7,658 yards (8.1 YPA) with 50 touchdowns and 24 interceptions.
However, he will be at a disadvantage in the bowl game as Maryland’s three most talented receivers are opting out to enter the NFL Draft.
Rakim Jarrett, Jacob Copeland, and Dontay Demus Jr. were all highly touted recruits coming out of high school. They didn’t post big numbers with the Terps this season, but Jarrett and Demus have dealt with injuries.
Tight end C.J. Dippre is also unavailable after entering the transfer portal. Jeshaun Jones and tight end Corey Dyches are both set to suit up though, and they each had 35 receptions or more this season.
Running back Roman Hemby will carry the load in the backfield, and he ran for 924 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 5.6 YPC this season. Hemby was also a factor in the passing game with 30+ receptions.
Maryland’s defense is ranked 46th in SP+. The Terps did a great job of limiting opponents in the passing game, allowing 6.3 YPA while keeping things in front of them.
Unfortunately, they will be without linebacker Ahmad McCullough, as he entered the transfer portal, and cornerback Deonte Banks opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft after a strong season.
Maryland did receive good news though when linebacker Durell Nchami announced that he would take part in the bowl game despite leaving school to prepare for the NFL Draft.
Pittsburgh Panthers Betting Analysis
Four-year backup Nick Patti will receive just his second start with the Pittsburgh Panthers on Friday at the Sun Bowl. Patti was the backup to Kenny Pickett for three years, and he was the secondary signal caller behind USC transfer Kedon Slovis this season.
Slovis re-entered the transfer portal and joined BYU earlier this month, so Patti will be called upon once more. In his four-year career at Pitt, he has completed 51 of 87 passes for 558 yards with four touchdowns and an interception.
Unfortunately for Patti, most of Pittsburgh’s best players on offense are not taking part in this bowl game. Standout running back Israel Abanikanda was a First Team All-ACC selection and ran for 1,431 yards and 20 touchdowns, so he is opting out to focus on the NFL Draft.
Offensive tackles Gabe Houy and Carter Warren are both opting out too, but the good news is that First Team All-ACC guard Marcus Minor did confirm he will play in this game.
Leading receiver Jared Wayne will also take part in the Sun Bowl after catching 55 passes for 1,012 yards with five touchdowns.
Standout defensive tackle Calijah Kancey was an All-American that drew comparisons to alum Aaron Donald, so Kancey is opting out in anticipation of being a first round pick. This defense is going to be without a lot more than just Kancey too as leading tackler SirVocea Dennis and second-leading tackler Brandon Hill are opting out.
Defensive lineman Habakkuk Baldonado is questionable to play due to injury, while edge rusher Deslin Alexandre also opted out in order to focus on the NFL Draft. Pittsburgh’s defense ranked 52nd in SP+, but this defense is a shadow of that one.
UCLA Bruins Betting Analysis
Meanwhile, UCLA will have almost its full complement of players for the Sun Bowl. For a while, we didn’t know the status of Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Zach Charbonnet, and Jake Bobo, but all three players seem set to start on Friday.
Super senior DTR had the best season of his career in 2022. He completed 69.8% of his passes for 2,883 yards (8.1 YPA) with 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
DTR was only sacked 15 times, and he was the second-leading rusher on the Bruins behind Charbonnet. He ran for 631 yards (5.6 YPC) and 11 touchdowns.
Charbonnet ran for 1,359 yards and 14 touchdowns while averaging 7.0 YPC this season. He was the third-leading receiver behind Bobo and Kazmeir Allen as well.
Bobo led the Bruins with 54 catches for 789 yards and seven touchdowns, while Allen had 49 receptions for 403 yards and two TDs.
This UCLA defense doesn’t need to do much considering how good the offense has been under Chip Kelly the last two years. The Bruins ranked 84th in Defensive SP+, but they did a very good job stopping the run (3.9 YPC).
Linebacker Laiatu Latu was superb with 9.5 sacks and three forced fumbles on his way to First Team All-PAC 12 honors.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Analysis
Tyler Buchner suffered what was thought to be a season-ending shoulder injury in Notre Dame’s Week 2 loss against Marshall.
However, Buchner was cleared to play in the Gator Bowl earlier this month after Drew Pyne announced that he was transferring to Arizona State.
It will be interesting to see how much Notre Dame decides to have him run in this game given he is coming off a shoulder injury, but he is at his best when he has the opportunity to run or throw.
The situation at tight end is dire. Michael Mayer was by far the best tight end in the country and hauled in 67 passes for 809 yards and nine touchdowns.
To no one’s surprise, Mayer opted to skip the bowl game since he is a lock to be a first round pick in the NFL Draft, but Holden Staes (one receptions for 11 yards) is the only tight end on the team with experience.
Cane Berrong entered the transfer portal, and Kevin Bauman and Eli Raridon are injured, stretching the depth at this position group.
Notre Dame is likely to have a run-heavy game plan since the top receiver is Lorenzo Styles with 30 receptions for 340 yards and a TD with Mayer out.
No one else has more than 20 receptions on the roster. This team has three solid running backs in Audric Estime, Logan Diggs, and Chris Tyree though.
Estime averaged 5.8 YPC and ran for 11 touchdowns, while Tyree is a receiving threat out of the backfield too.
The Fighting Irish are ranked 36th in Defensive SP+. They were great at getting to the quarterback this year, but their ability to do that will be severely limited without Isaiah Foskey.
He was responsible for 11 of Notre Dame’s 35 sacks, and no other player had more than three sacks.
Starting cornerback Cam Hart will miss this game due to injury, but Benjamin Morrison is set to start and led the Irish with five interceptions.
South Carolina Gamecocks Betting Analysis
Spencer Rattler will take part in the Gator Bowl, and there’s a decent chance that this is his last collegiate game. Rattler had an up-and-down season in Columbia to match his up-and-down time at Oklahoma, but there’s no doubt that he has the pure talent to play on Sunday if he can find more consistency.
Rattler absolutely torched No. 5 Tennessee’s defense in a 63-38 blowout victory, completing 30 of 37 passes for 438 yards and six touchdowns without a turnover. However, in his other 11 starts, he threw 10 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
There will be a lot of new faces in this offense though, especially at the skill positions. Top running back MarShawn Lloyd entered the transfer portal, and No. 3 running back Christian Beal-Smith is injured and considered doubtful to play.
Star tight end Jaheim Bell also entered the transfer portal, and No. 2 tight end Austin Stogner announced that he was returning to Oklahoma earlier this month.
No. 3 wide receiver Josh Vann didn’t make the trip to Jacksonville with the team, and No. 2 wide receiver Jalen Brooks is considered doubtful due to an unspecified issue.
That is sure to cause a lot of consternation at times, even with three weeks of practice to try and prepare for this game.
South Carolina had the best special teams in the country per SP+. This defense was above average by the same metric, but the Gamecocks will be missing three of their starters in the secondary.
Cam Smith, Darius Rush, and Devonni Reed have all opted out to enter the NFL Draft, so that will put a lot of pressure on safeties D.Q. Smith and Nick Emmanwori.
The Gamecocks’ front seven allowed 5.0 YPC and 197.2 YPG on the ground, so the Irish could have a lot of success with the ground game.
Ohio Bobcats Betting Analysis
MAC Offensive Player of the Year Kurtis Rourke was having a phenomenal season for Ohio. Rourke was an outstanding dual-threat quarterback like older brother Nathan Rourke, but he suffered a season-ending knee injury in mid-November. Sophomore C.J. Harris has ended up starting the last two games, and he hasn’t been nearly as effective. Harris has completed 27 of 52 passes for 359 yards with one touchdown and one interception. That led to the Bobcats losing in the MAC Championship Game once more.
Sieh Bangura was one of the top running backs in the MAC this season, and he will likely see more of a workload with Rourke injured. The freshman had at least 20 carries in each of his last four games, and Bangura ended the season running for 940 yards (4.8 YPC) and 12 touchdowns. First Team All-MAC wide receiver Sam Wiglusz should be the top target in the passing game with 69 receptions for 850 yards and 11 touchdowns. Jacoby Jones (17.4 YPR) and James Bostic (18.5 YPR) are big play threats, but they will likely be muted with Rourke out.
Ohio doesn’t have a good defense, ranking 95th nationally in SP+. However, the Bobcats were opportunistic and one of the best teams when it came to forcing turnovers. They had 11 interceptions and forced 15 fumbles (recovering 13 of those fumbles). Linebacker Bryce Houston was second on the team in tackles and led the Bobcats with 5.5 sacks. Zach Sanders and Tariq Drake tied for the team lead with three interceptions apiece.
Wyoming Cowboys Betting Analysis
The Wyoming offense has been extremely challenged ever since Josh Allen turned pro. Wyoming was ranked 123rd in Offensive SP+ this season as neither Andrew Peasley nor Jayden Clemons performed well under center. Peasley completed just 51.4% of his passes for 1,388 yards (5.7 YPA) with nine touchdowns and eight interceptions. He threw five picks in his last three games, so that led to Clemons seeing more action. Clemons has completed just 12 of 29 passes for 145 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions in relief, and he hasn’t been a marked improvement as a runner either. Peasley averaged 4.7 YPC and Clemons ran for 4.5 YPC.
Titus Swen led the Cowboys with 1,039 rushing yards (5.0 YPC) and eight touchdowns on the ground. However, he decided that he would enter the NFL Draft, and he won’t be taking part in the bowl game. Second-leading rusher Dawaiian McNeely averaged 5.7 YPC and third-leading rusher D.Q. James averaged 8.6 YPC, but both players are expected to miss this game due to injury. Joey Braasch (29 attempts) was the only other running back on the roster with experience, but he entered the transfer portal, so no one is quite sure what Craig Bohl will do at running back. Leading receiver Joshua Cobbs is in the portal too.
Wyoming has a solid defense, as the Cowboys rank 62nd in Defensive SP+. They have struggled at forcing turnovers this season, but they have done a very good job of getting after quarterbacks. Linebacker Easton Gibbs was a First Team All-MWC selection after leading the team in tackles, and DeVonne Harris, Jordan Bertagnole, Braden Siders, and Oluwaseyi Omotosho all recorded at least five sacks.
Tennessee Volunteers Betting Analysis
With Hendon Hooker out, the Tennessee Volunteers will be forced to start Joe Milton under center. Milton transferred in from Michigan last year and was originally the starting quarterback ahead of Hooker. However, the same inconsistency that plagued him in Ann Arbor eventually led to Milton being benched. He has thrived in limited action this year though, completing 34 of 54 passes for 720 yards and seven touchdowns.
Milton will not have the benefit of throwing to Tennessee’s top two receivers though. Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman both made the decision to opt out of this game in order to focus on the NFL Draft. The Volunteers still have players like Bru McCoy, Ramel Keyton, and Squirrel White, but they aren’t as talented as Hyatt and Tillman. Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small will split carries at running back, and they could play more of a role in this game. Left tackle Darnell Wright will enter the NFL Draft in a few months, but he has decided to play in this bowl game.
The Volunteers were excellent against the run in 2022. They allowed just 3.3 YPC, so opponents took to the air almost 40 times a game in order to try to keep up with this high-octane offense. Linebacker Jeremy Banks opted out of this game in order to start his NFL career, but defensive end Byron Young will close out his collegiate career in the Orange Bowl before heading to the next level. That’s great news for the Vols as Young was a First Team All-SEC selection this season.
Clemson Tigers Betting Analysis
After two underwhelming years under center, Clemson and D.J. Uiagalelei have officially parted ways. Uiagalelei did show improvement from last season to this season, greatly improving his touchdown to interception ratio, but the school and the player were both ready to move on from one another. The Cade Klubnik era is now officially underway, and Clemson hopes he can be more like Deshaun Watson or Trevor Lawrence and less like Tahj Boyd or Kelly Bryant.
Klubnik completed 31 of 46 passes for 377 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in limited action this season. He is a quality dual threat that averaged 4.0 YPC, so look for a good mix of RPO in the play calling on Friday night. No. 3 receiver Beaux Collins is injured and will miss the Orange Bowl, but top two receivers Antonio Williams and Joseph Ngata will be available. Perhaps more importantly, the entire offensive line and Will Shipley Jr. is ready to go, giving Klubnik a lot of help in his first start.
Clemson ranked 23rd in Defensive SP+ at the end of the regular season. The Tigers won’t have defensive end Myles Murphy and linebacker Trenton Simpson available for this game after both players decided to opt out in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. However, the good news for Dabo Swinney and company is that it sounds like every other major contributor will suit up, including Bryan Bresee.
| Date | W-L-T | % | Units | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/30/2022 | 5-3-0 | 62.50% | +850 | Detail |
| 12/29/2022 | 2-2-0 | 50.00% | -100 | Detail |
| 12/28/2022 | 5-3-0 | 62.50% | +850 | Detail |
| 12/27/2022 | 3-1-0 | 75.00% | +950 | Detail |
| 12/24/2022 | 0-2-0 | 0.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 12/23/2022 | 1-2-1 | 37.50% | -600 | Detail |
| 12/22/2022 | 1-1-0 | 50.00% | -50 | Detail |
| 12/21/2022 | 2-0-0 | 100.00% | +1000 | Detail |
| 12/20/2022 | 2-2-0 | 50.00% | -100 | Detail |
| 12/19/2022 | 0-2-0 | 0.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 12/17/2022 | 6-6-0 | 50.00% | -300 | Detail |
| 12/16/2022 | 3-1-0 | 75.00% | +950 | Detail |
Armadillo Sports
— Washington 27, Texas 20
Washington converted 11-20 third down plays.
Huskies went 11-2 in Kalen DeBoer’s first year as coach.
Texas was 30-18 under Tom Herman; they’re 13-12 under Steve Sarkisian.
— Florida State 35, Oklahoma 32
Oklahoma led 25-18 with 12:00 left in game.
Seminoles scored 17 points in last 11:05, kicked GW field goal with 0:55 left.
This was Oklahoma’s first losing season (6-7) since 1998.
Florida State QB Travis threw for 418 yards, two TD’s.
— Minnesota 28, Syracuse 20
Syracuse started season 6-0; they finished it 7-6.
Orange outgained Minnesota, 477-215.
Gophers scored on a 70-yard pick-6 to make score 21-10.
Minnesota RB Ibrahim finished his college career with 4,668 rushing yards and 53 TD’s in 40 games; he was a 2-star recruit coming out of high school.
— Maryland 16, NC State 12
Wolfpack kicked four FG’s, none longer than 38 yards.
Maryland was 10-21 on third down, State 5-18.
Wolfpack completed only 22-48 passes; they’ve lost last three bowls.
— Pittsburgh 37, UCLA 35
UCLA led 28-14 after a pick-6 with 8:45 left in third quarter.
Pitt took 34-28 lead on field goal with 4:24 left.
Bruins scored TD with 0:34 left, to go ahead 35-34.
Pitt kicked 47-yard FG with 0:04 left for the win.
— Notre Dame 45, South Carolina 38
Gamecocks had two pick-6’s, scored TD on fake FG and still lost.
Notre Dame drove 80 yards, scored game-winning TD with 1:38 left.
Notre Dame was 11-19 on third down, Carolina 5-15.
— Ohio U 30, Wyoming 27 OT
Wyoming led 14-6 after first quarter.
Ohio kicked 46-yard FG with 0:04 left to force OT.
Bobcats outgained Wyoming, 385-291.
— Tennessee 31, Clemson 14
Vols finished 11-2 for first time since 2001
Clemson got into Tennessee territory on 9 of their first 10 drives, but could only manage two field goals.
Clemson ran 101 plays for 484 yards, but only scored 14 points.
— Washington 27, Texas 20
Washington converted 11-20 third down plays.
Huskies went 11-2 in Kalen DeBoer’s first year as coach.
Texas was 30-18 under Tom Herman; they’re 13-12 under Steve Sarkisian.
— Florida State 35, Oklahoma 32
Oklahoma led 25-18 with 12:00 left in game.
Seminoles scored 17 points in last 11:05, kicked GW field goal with 0:55 left.
This was Oklahoma’s first losing season (6-7) since 1998.
Florida State QB Travis threw for 418 yards, two TD’s.
— Minnesota 28, Syracuse 20
Syracuse started season 6-0; they finished it 7-6.
Orange outgained Minnesota, 477-215.
Gophers scored on a 70-yard pick-6 to make score 21-10.
Minnesota RB Ibrahim finished his college career with 4,668 rushing yards and 53 TD’s in 40 games; he was a 2-star recruit coming out of high school.
— Maryland 16, NC State 12
Wolfpack kicked four FG’s, none longer than 38 yards.
Maryland was 10-21 on third down, State 5-18.
Wolfpack completed only 22-48 passes; they’ve lost last three bowls.
— Pittsburgh 37, UCLA 35
UCLA led 28-14 after a pick-6 with 8:45 left in third quarter.
Pitt took 34-28 lead on field goal with 4:24 left.
Bruins scored TD with 0:34 left, to go ahead 35-34.
Pitt kicked 47-yard FG with 0:04 left for the win.
— Notre Dame 45, South Carolina 38
Gamecocks had two pick-6’s, scored TD on fake FG and still lost.
Notre Dame drove 80 yards, scored game-winning TD with 1:38 left.
Notre Dame was 11-19 on third down, Carolina 5-15.
— Ohio U 30, Wyoming 27 OT
Wyoming led 14-6 after first quarter.
Ohio kicked 46-yard FG with 0:04 left to force OT.
Bobcats outgained Wyoming, 385-291.
— Tennessee 31, Clemson 14
Vols finished 11-2 for first time since 2001
Clemson got into Tennessee territory on 9 of their first 10 drives, but could only manage two field goals.
Clemson ran 101 plays for 484 yards, but only scored 14 points.
NCAAF
Weather Report
Bowl Season
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Analysis
Bryce Young is likely to be the first Alabama player selected with the No. 1 overall pick in the Nick Saban era. The Crimson Tide haven’t had a player go 1-1 since Joe Namath was taken with the first overall pick in the 1965 AFL Draft, but there is something truly special about Young.
He nearly willed Alabama to a win over Georgia in last year’s CFP National Championship Game, and Young posted solid numbers this season although Alabama did not have great receivers or an elite offensive line.
He completed 64.1% of his passes for 3,007 yards (8.4 YPA) with 27 touchdowns and five interceptions on the season, and he was a decent scrambler when the occasion called for it too.
Georgia Tech transfer Jahmyr Gibbs was a dark horse Heisman Trophy candidate for most of the season. Gibbs was Alabama’s best running back, picking up 850 rushing yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 6.3 YPC.
He was also the third leading receiver on the team with 42 receptions for 378 yards and three TDs. With Traeshon Holden transferring out of Tuscaloosa, the two receivers to watch in this game are Ja’Corey Brooks and Jermaine Burton.
Meanwhile, the other running back to keep an eye on alongside Gibbs is Jase McClellan.
Alabama ended the season ranked 4th overall in SP+ and 12th in Defensive SP+. The Crimson Tide boasted the best defensive player in the country in Will Anderson, and he had another dominant season with 10 sacks despite consistent double teams.
Anderson is a two-time All-American and was named the SEC Defensive Player of the Year for the last two seasons, so he should have an enormous impact on this game.
Linebacker Henry To’o To’o and defensive backs Kool-Aid McKinstry and Jordan Battle were also First Team All-SEC selections, so Kansas State will have a hard time moving the ball if this unit is locked in.
Kansas State Wildcats Betting Analysis
Adrian Martinez reportedly might be healthy enough to see action in this game, but Will Howard has been the more dynamic option under center since taking over as the starting quarterback.
Howard is completing 61.6% of his passes for 1,423 yards (8.7 YPA) with 15 touchdowns and two interceptions. He doesn’t represent the same mobile threat as Martinez, but he is a much better passer, and defenses have to respect his ability to throw downfield and make big plays.
Still, don’t be surprised if Martinez comes in with certain packages to use his mobility.
Top receiver Malik Knowles has been cleared to play after leaving the Big 12 Championship Game due to injury. Knowles was Kansas State’s best receiver with 47 receptions for 719 yards and two TDs in the passing game, so his return is big news.
Phillip Brooks, Kade Warner, and tight end Ben Sinnott have also seen extensive action as well as three-time Second Team All-Big 12 running back Deuce Vaughn. The 5’6 Vaughn ran for 1,425 yards and eight touchdowns, and he caught 42 passes for 378 yards and three TDs.
The Wildcats have one of the top defensive players in the country too in Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Felix Anudike-Uzomah.
Anudike-Uzomah was a big part of why Kansas State ranked 16th in Defensive SP+.
This secondary was superb too, and cornerback Julius Brents was named First Team All-Big 12 after leading the Wildcats with four interceptions.
Starting cornerback Ekow Boye-Doe is expected to play in this game too after sustaining an injury in late November.
Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Analysis
The Hawkeyes will have a brand new quarterback for this bowl game as starter Spencer Petras is injured and backup Alex Padilla entered the transfer portal.
Petras and Padilla were the only two players to throw passes for Iowa this season, so Kirk Ferentz will have to rely on scout team quarterback Joey Labas to lead the way.
Labas is a redshirt freshman that was a three-star recruit out of high school, and he has yet to throw a pass. He is a mobile threat with his legs though, so Kentucky must be on the lookout for that.
Kaleb Johnson was the top running back on the team, and Iowa will likely run him 20+ times in this game. Johnson ran for 762 yards (5.4 YPC) and six touchdowns in the regular season, while backup Leshon Williams could only muster 3.6 YPC.
Standout tight end Sam LaPorta could have opted out to focus on the NFL Draft, but he instead decided to suit up one more time for the Hawkeyes.
LaPorta led the team with 53 receptions for 601 yards and a touchdown. Nico Ragaini and tight end Luke Lachey will also take part in this game, but Arland Bruce IV is entering the transfer portal.
While Iowa’s offense ended the year ranked a putrid 120th in SP+, the defense was the best in the country according to the same metric.
The Hawkeyes allowed just 15.5 PPG and 292.3 YPG, and they conceded just 4.1 yards per play (tops in the FBS). Six different players on this defense earned all-conference honors with First Team All-Big Ten linebacker Jack Campbell leading the way.
Cooper DeJean and Riley Moss are also suiting up one more time for Iowa, but safety Kaevon Merriweather opted out in order to start preparing for the NFL Draft.
Kentucky Wildcats Betting Analysis
Kentucky’s offense will look a lot different without projected first-round pick Will Levis under center. Levis has the prototypical size and arm strength that NFL teams covet, but he never thrived at the collegiate level.
In his stead, head coach Mark Stoops has said that three different players will take snaps for Kentucky.
Redshirt freshman Kaiya Sheron seems likely to receiver the bulk of the snaps after being the primary backup (29 attempts) during the season, but true freshman Destin Wade and Iowa transfer Deuce Hogan will see action.
Top running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. has opted out of this game in order to focus on the NFL Draft and No. 2 back Kavosiey Smoke has entered the transfer portal.
JuTahn McClain (49 carries for 238 yards) is likely to be the starting running back in their absence. The Wildcats will have their top two receivers available though as Barion Brown and Dane Key are both taking part in the Music City Bowl.
No. 3 receiver Tayvion Robinson is out though, and no other player has more than 20 receptions.
The Wildcats ranked sixth in Defensive SP+ during the regular season. Kentucky did a very good job stopping opposing quarterbacks, but the front seven did have trouble against power run games at times.
The good news is that Kentucky only had one opt-out or transfer on this side of the ball though.
Top cornerback Carrington Valentine is leaving school for the NFL, yet everyone else is scheduled to play for the Wildcats on Saturday.
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Analysis
TCU hired Sonny Dykes away from crosstown rival SMU in order to give this dormant offense a spark. The Horned Frogs had been a defense-focused team for the last two decades under Gary Patterson, and it was clear that the program needed a shakeup.
Dykes has proven to be a positive disruptor as Max Duggan totally turned his career around in his final season at TCU.
Duggan was the definition of a mediocre quarterback through his first three seasons at TCU. He did show improvement as a junior in 2021, but there was a reason that Oklahoma transfer Chandler Morris was named the starting quarterback against Colorado in the season opener.
However, Morris was not sharp against the Buffaloes, and that led to Dykes turning to Duggan next week against FCS Tarleton State.
This offense has thrived with Duggan under center and is currently ranked 6th nationally in Offensive SP+. The senior quarterback has completed 64.9% of his passes for 3,321 yards (9.0 YPA) with 30 touchdowns against four interceptions and was named Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year.
Two-time First Team All-Big 12 WR Quentin Johnston is a receiver that will be playing on Sundays, and he has had the opportunity to get healthy again after being slowed by injury over the second half of the season.
Despite the injury, Johnston leads TCU with 53 receptions for 903 yards and five touchdowns. Taye Barber is another big play threat for Duggan, while Derius Davis and Savion Williams are quality complementary receivers.
Kendre Miller has been one of the most dangerous running backs in the Big 12 this season. Miller has run for 1,342 yards and 17 touchdowns while averaging 6.2 YPC, and he has the benefit of running behind two First Team All-Big 12 offensive linemen in Alan Ali and Steve Avila.
That balance has helped make TCU’s offense especially scary, and the Horned Frogs have a potential game changing return man in Derius Davis.
TCU’s defense ranked 33rd in SP+. The Horned Frogs were above average against the pass but just decent against the run, and that’s a concern against a team like Michigan. Linebacker Dee Winters will see a lot of attention and led TCU with 7.5 sacks while being a first team all-conference selection.
Defensive backs Josh Newton and Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson both earned similar accolades after recording 10+ pass breakups, but the lack of size along the defensive line needs to be addressed in the game plan.
Michigan Wolverines Betting Analysis
Jim Harbaugh had Michigan start the season with a platoon system at quarterback. Cade McNamara and J.J. McCarthy split series over the first couple games, but it quickly became clear that McCarthy was the best option.
McNamara has already announced that he will transfer to Iowa after McCarthy was an all-conference selection. McCarthy completed 65.3% of his passes for 2,376 yards (8.3 YPA) with 20 touchdowns and three interceptions.
He was only sacked nine times as he is a dangerous runner too, picking up 254 rushing yards (4.2 YPC) and four TDs on the ground.
Star running back Blake Corum will be unavailable in the College Football Playoff after tearing his meniscus in the penultimate game of the regular season.
Corum was a First Team All-Big 12 running back after picking up 1,463 yards (5.9 YPC) and 18 touchdowns in 2022, but Michigan has an excellent replacement in Donovan Edwards.
Although Edwards is dealing with a hand injury, he ran for 872 yards and seven TDs while averaging 7.5 YPC in the regular season.
Edwards carved up Ohio State and Purdue’s defenses in Michigan’s last two games as this offensive line had four all-conference picks led by guard Zak Zinter.
Ronnie Bell is the only dangerous threat on the perimeter for Michigan. Bell had 56 receptions for 754 yards and three touchdowns in the regular season.
Cornelius Johnson is a big play threat (15.6 YPR and six TDs), while tight end Luke Schoonmaker was the only other player on the roster with more than 20 receptions.
Michigan’s defense was superb this season, ranking 4th nationally in SP+. The Wolverines were fantastic in pretty much every category, allowing just 13.4 PPG and 277.1 YPG, and the run defense was the second-best in college football.
Although they lost Aidan Hutchinson to the NFL, Mike Morris and Mazi Smith were both First Team All-Big Ten defensive linemen and shut down ground games.
D.J. Turner was an excellent defensive back and earned all-conference honors with 10+ pass breakups, and it’s hard to find a weak link at any level on this defense.
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Analysis
This offense was projected to be the best in the country at the start of the season. However, Ohio State never had the explosiveness we saw at times last year.
Top running back TreVeyon Henderson and top receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had their seasons plagued by injuries, and both Henderson and Smith-Njigba will be unavailable for the Peach Bowl due to those issues.
Still, C.J. Stroud was a First Team All-Big Ten quarterback. Stroud completed 66.2% of his passes for 3,340 yards (9.4 YPA) with 37 touchdowns and six interceptions. We didn’t see Stroud run the ball much, but he didn’t need to in this offense.
Miyan Williams was the No. 1 running back on Ohio State with Henderson injured for most of the season. Wiliams also dealt with a leg injury late in the year, but he is expected to be the starting running back for the Buckeyes in the Peach Bowl.
He ran for 817 yards (6.5 YPC) and 13 touchdowns, and freshman Dallas Hayden emerged as the No. 2 back with Henderson out.
Although Smith-Njigba only played in three games this season, Ohio State still had two 1,000-yard receivers in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka.
Harrison thrived as the go-to receiver with 72 receptions for 1,157 yards and 12 touchdowns, while Egbuka caught 66 passes for 1,039 yards and nine TDs.
Ohio State’s defense is much better than it was in 2021. The Buckeyes ranked 15th in Defensive SP+ in their first season under new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, and they were balanced against the run and the pass.
Linebacker Tommy Eichenberg led the Buckeyes in tackles and was a First Team All-Big Ten selection, and Zach Harrison can be a real difference maker at defensive end.
Georgia Bulldogs Betting Analysis
Kirby Smart is old school when it comes to his offense, but the Bulldogs have been more pass-oriented than you might think this season. Georgia has only run the ball on 53.6% of its plays even though the Bulldogs are averaging 5.7 YPC. They have allowed Stetson Bennett to take to the air more, and he rewarded them with a fine season.
Bennett completed 68.1% of his passes for 3,425 yards (8.7 YPA) with 20 touchdowns and six interceptions.
He was only sacked seven times behind a star-studded offensive line, but he also showed some mobility by averaging 6.0 YPC with seven touchdowns once you take out sack yardage.
Georgia’s best threat in the passing game was tight end Brock Bowers. The versatile tight end was named First Team All-SEC after catching a team-high 52 passes for 726 yards and six touchdowns.
Bowers also showed that he has some wheels with three rushing touchdowns, and that made this ground game even more versatile.
Unfortunately, No. 1 receiver Ladd McConkey is questionable to play in the Peach Bowl after being injured in the SEC Championship Game.
The ground game is in great shape. Kenny McIntosh is the leading rusher on the Bulldogs with 709 yards (5.2 YPC) and 10 touchdowns.
Daijun Edwards is right behind him and is averaging 5.4 YPC, while Kendall MIlton and Branson Robinson provide depth. McIntosh is also the third leading receiver with 37 receptions for 449 yards and a TD.
The other big question hovering around this offense is the status of First Team All-SEC OT Warren McClendon. As with McConkey, McClendon suffered a knee injury in the SEC Championship Game, and his status is unknown prior to the Peach Bowl. That would be a big loss for Georgia.
Georgia’s defense is ranked 2nd in Defensive SP+. The Bulldogs had one of the best run defenses in the country, allowing just 3.0 YPC and 81.8 YPG on the ground. Jalen Carter is a probable top five pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and was a First Team All-SEC selection.
Unfortunately, top pass rusher Nolan Smith was lost for the season in late October. Starting safety Dan Jackson suffered a season-ending injury two months ago as well, but Georgia has done a better job of overcoming that setback.
Senior cornerback Christopher Smith had a fine year too and will be asked to help shut down some of the best receivers in college football.
Weather Report
Bowl Season
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Analysis
Bryce Young is likely to be the first Alabama player selected with the No. 1 overall pick in the Nick Saban era. The Crimson Tide haven’t had a player go 1-1 since Joe Namath was taken with the first overall pick in the 1965 AFL Draft, but there is something truly special about Young.
He nearly willed Alabama to a win over Georgia in last year’s CFP National Championship Game, and Young posted solid numbers this season although Alabama did not have great receivers or an elite offensive line.
He completed 64.1% of his passes for 3,007 yards (8.4 YPA) with 27 touchdowns and five interceptions on the season, and he was a decent scrambler when the occasion called for it too.
Georgia Tech transfer Jahmyr Gibbs was a dark horse Heisman Trophy candidate for most of the season. Gibbs was Alabama’s best running back, picking up 850 rushing yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 6.3 YPC.
He was also the third leading receiver on the team with 42 receptions for 378 yards and three TDs. With Traeshon Holden transferring out of Tuscaloosa, the two receivers to watch in this game are Ja’Corey Brooks and Jermaine Burton.
Meanwhile, the other running back to keep an eye on alongside Gibbs is Jase McClellan.
Alabama ended the season ranked 4th overall in SP+ and 12th in Defensive SP+. The Crimson Tide boasted the best defensive player in the country in Will Anderson, and he had another dominant season with 10 sacks despite consistent double teams.
Anderson is a two-time All-American and was named the SEC Defensive Player of the Year for the last two seasons, so he should have an enormous impact on this game.
Linebacker Henry To’o To’o and defensive backs Kool-Aid McKinstry and Jordan Battle were also First Team All-SEC selections, so Kansas State will have a hard time moving the ball if this unit is locked in.
Kansas State Wildcats Betting Analysis
Adrian Martinez reportedly might be healthy enough to see action in this game, but Will Howard has been the more dynamic option under center since taking over as the starting quarterback.
Howard is completing 61.6% of his passes for 1,423 yards (8.7 YPA) with 15 touchdowns and two interceptions. He doesn’t represent the same mobile threat as Martinez, but he is a much better passer, and defenses have to respect his ability to throw downfield and make big plays.
Still, don’t be surprised if Martinez comes in with certain packages to use his mobility.
Top receiver Malik Knowles has been cleared to play after leaving the Big 12 Championship Game due to injury. Knowles was Kansas State’s best receiver with 47 receptions for 719 yards and two TDs in the passing game, so his return is big news.
Phillip Brooks, Kade Warner, and tight end Ben Sinnott have also seen extensive action as well as three-time Second Team All-Big 12 running back Deuce Vaughn. The 5’6 Vaughn ran for 1,425 yards and eight touchdowns, and he caught 42 passes for 378 yards and three TDs.
The Wildcats have one of the top defensive players in the country too in Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Felix Anudike-Uzomah.
Anudike-Uzomah was a big part of why Kansas State ranked 16th in Defensive SP+.
This secondary was superb too, and cornerback Julius Brents was named First Team All-Big 12 after leading the Wildcats with four interceptions.
Starting cornerback Ekow Boye-Doe is expected to play in this game too after sustaining an injury in late November.
Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Analysis
The Hawkeyes will have a brand new quarterback for this bowl game as starter Spencer Petras is injured and backup Alex Padilla entered the transfer portal.
Petras and Padilla were the only two players to throw passes for Iowa this season, so Kirk Ferentz will have to rely on scout team quarterback Joey Labas to lead the way.
Labas is a redshirt freshman that was a three-star recruit out of high school, and he has yet to throw a pass. He is a mobile threat with his legs though, so Kentucky must be on the lookout for that.
Kaleb Johnson was the top running back on the team, and Iowa will likely run him 20+ times in this game. Johnson ran for 762 yards (5.4 YPC) and six touchdowns in the regular season, while backup Leshon Williams could only muster 3.6 YPC.
Standout tight end Sam LaPorta could have opted out to focus on the NFL Draft, but he instead decided to suit up one more time for the Hawkeyes.
LaPorta led the team with 53 receptions for 601 yards and a touchdown. Nico Ragaini and tight end Luke Lachey will also take part in this game, but Arland Bruce IV is entering the transfer portal.
While Iowa’s offense ended the year ranked a putrid 120th in SP+, the defense was the best in the country according to the same metric.
The Hawkeyes allowed just 15.5 PPG and 292.3 YPG, and they conceded just 4.1 yards per play (tops in the FBS). Six different players on this defense earned all-conference honors with First Team All-Big Ten linebacker Jack Campbell leading the way.
Cooper DeJean and Riley Moss are also suiting up one more time for Iowa, but safety Kaevon Merriweather opted out in order to start preparing for the NFL Draft.
Kentucky Wildcats Betting Analysis
Kentucky’s offense will look a lot different without projected first-round pick Will Levis under center. Levis has the prototypical size and arm strength that NFL teams covet, but he never thrived at the collegiate level.
In his stead, head coach Mark Stoops has said that three different players will take snaps for Kentucky.
Redshirt freshman Kaiya Sheron seems likely to receiver the bulk of the snaps after being the primary backup (29 attempts) during the season, but true freshman Destin Wade and Iowa transfer Deuce Hogan will see action.
Top running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. has opted out of this game in order to focus on the NFL Draft and No. 2 back Kavosiey Smoke has entered the transfer portal.
JuTahn McClain (49 carries for 238 yards) is likely to be the starting running back in their absence. The Wildcats will have their top two receivers available though as Barion Brown and Dane Key are both taking part in the Music City Bowl.
No. 3 receiver Tayvion Robinson is out though, and no other player has more than 20 receptions.
The Wildcats ranked sixth in Defensive SP+ during the regular season. Kentucky did a very good job stopping opposing quarterbacks, but the front seven did have trouble against power run games at times.
The good news is that Kentucky only had one opt-out or transfer on this side of the ball though.
Top cornerback Carrington Valentine is leaving school for the NFL, yet everyone else is scheduled to play for the Wildcats on Saturday.
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Analysis
TCU hired Sonny Dykes away from crosstown rival SMU in order to give this dormant offense a spark. The Horned Frogs had been a defense-focused team for the last two decades under Gary Patterson, and it was clear that the program needed a shakeup.
Dykes has proven to be a positive disruptor as Max Duggan totally turned his career around in his final season at TCU.
Duggan was the definition of a mediocre quarterback through his first three seasons at TCU. He did show improvement as a junior in 2021, but there was a reason that Oklahoma transfer Chandler Morris was named the starting quarterback against Colorado in the season opener.
However, Morris was not sharp against the Buffaloes, and that led to Dykes turning to Duggan next week against FCS Tarleton State.
This offense has thrived with Duggan under center and is currently ranked 6th nationally in Offensive SP+. The senior quarterback has completed 64.9% of his passes for 3,321 yards (9.0 YPA) with 30 touchdowns against four interceptions and was named Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year.
Two-time First Team All-Big 12 WR Quentin Johnston is a receiver that will be playing on Sundays, and he has had the opportunity to get healthy again after being slowed by injury over the second half of the season.
Despite the injury, Johnston leads TCU with 53 receptions for 903 yards and five touchdowns. Taye Barber is another big play threat for Duggan, while Derius Davis and Savion Williams are quality complementary receivers.
Kendre Miller has been one of the most dangerous running backs in the Big 12 this season. Miller has run for 1,342 yards and 17 touchdowns while averaging 6.2 YPC, and he has the benefit of running behind two First Team All-Big 12 offensive linemen in Alan Ali and Steve Avila.
That balance has helped make TCU’s offense especially scary, and the Horned Frogs have a potential game changing return man in Derius Davis.
TCU’s defense ranked 33rd in SP+. The Horned Frogs were above average against the pass but just decent against the run, and that’s a concern against a team like Michigan. Linebacker Dee Winters will see a lot of attention and led TCU with 7.5 sacks while being a first team all-conference selection.
Defensive backs Josh Newton and Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson both earned similar accolades after recording 10+ pass breakups, but the lack of size along the defensive line needs to be addressed in the game plan.
Michigan Wolverines Betting Analysis
Jim Harbaugh had Michigan start the season with a platoon system at quarterback. Cade McNamara and J.J. McCarthy split series over the first couple games, but it quickly became clear that McCarthy was the best option.
McNamara has already announced that he will transfer to Iowa after McCarthy was an all-conference selection. McCarthy completed 65.3% of his passes for 2,376 yards (8.3 YPA) with 20 touchdowns and three interceptions.
He was only sacked nine times as he is a dangerous runner too, picking up 254 rushing yards (4.2 YPC) and four TDs on the ground.
Star running back Blake Corum will be unavailable in the College Football Playoff after tearing his meniscus in the penultimate game of the regular season.
Corum was a First Team All-Big 12 running back after picking up 1,463 yards (5.9 YPC) and 18 touchdowns in 2022, but Michigan has an excellent replacement in Donovan Edwards.
Although Edwards is dealing with a hand injury, he ran for 872 yards and seven TDs while averaging 7.5 YPC in the regular season.
Edwards carved up Ohio State and Purdue’s defenses in Michigan’s last two games as this offensive line had four all-conference picks led by guard Zak Zinter.
Ronnie Bell is the only dangerous threat on the perimeter for Michigan. Bell had 56 receptions for 754 yards and three touchdowns in the regular season.
Cornelius Johnson is a big play threat (15.6 YPR and six TDs), while tight end Luke Schoonmaker was the only other player on the roster with more than 20 receptions.
Michigan’s defense was superb this season, ranking 4th nationally in SP+. The Wolverines were fantastic in pretty much every category, allowing just 13.4 PPG and 277.1 YPG, and the run defense was the second-best in college football.
Although they lost Aidan Hutchinson to the NFL, Mike Morris and Mazi Smith were both First Team All-Big Ten defensive linemen and shut down ground games.
D.J. Turner was an excellent defensive back and earned all-conference honors with 10+ pass breakups, and it’s hard to find a weak link at any level on this defense.
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Analysis
This offense was projected to be the best in the country at the start of the season. However, Ohio State never had the explosiveness we saw at times last year.
Top running back TreVeyon Henderson and top receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had their seasons plagued by injuries, and both Henderson and Smith-Njigba will be unavailable for the Peach Bowl due to those issues.
Still, C.J. Stroud was a First Team All-Big Ten quarterback. Stroud completed 66.2% of his passes for 3,340 yards (9.4 YPA) with 37 touchdowns and six interceptions. We didn’t see Stroud run the ball much, but he didn’t need to in this offense.
Miyan Williams was the No. 1 running back on Ohio State with Henderson injured for most of the season. Wiliams also dealt with a leg injury late in the year, but he is expected to be the starting running back for the Buckeyes in the Peach Bowl.
He ran for 817 yards (6.5 YPC) and 13 touchdowns, and freshman Dallas Hayden emerged as the No. 2 back with Henderson out.
Although Smith-Njigba only played in three games this season, Ohio State still had two 1,000-yard receivers in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka.
Harrison thrived as the go-to receiver with 72 receptions for 1,157 yards and 12 touchdowns, while Egbuka caught 66 passes for 1,039 yards and nine TDs.
Ohio State’s defense is much better than it was in 2021. The Buckeyes ranked 15th in Defensive SP+ in their first season under new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, and they were balanced against the run and the pass.
Linebacker Tommy Eichenberg led the Buckeyes in tackles and was a First Team All-Big Ten selection, and Zach Harrison can be a real difference maker at defensive end.
Georgia Bulldogs Betting Analysis
Kirby Smart is old school when it comes to his offense, but the Bulldogs have been more pass-oriented than you might think this season. Georgia has only run the ball on 53.6% of its plays even though the Bulldogs are averaging 5.7 YPC. They have allowed Stetson Bennett to take to the air more, and he rewarded them with a fine season.
Bennett completed 68.1% of his passes for 3,425 yards (8.7 YPA) with 20 touchdowns and six interceptions.
He was only sacked seven times behind a star-studded offensive line, but he also showed some mobility by averaging 6.0 YPC with seven touchdowns once you take out sack yardage.
Georgia’s best threat in the passing game was tight end Brock Bowers. The versatile tight end was named First Team All-SEC after catching a team-high 52 passes for 726 yards and six touchdowns.
Bowers also showed that he has some wheels with three rushing touchdowns, and that made this ground game even more versatile.
Unfortunately, No. 1 receiver Ladd McConkey is questionable to play in the Peach Bowl after being injured in the SEC Championship Game.
The ground game is in great shape. Kenny McIntosh is the leading rusher on the Bulldogs with 709 yards (5.2 YPC) and 10 touchdowns.
Daijun Edwards is right behind him and is averaging 5.4 YPC, while Kendall MIlton and Branson Robinson provide depth. McIntosh is also the third leading receiver with 37 receptions for 449 yards and a TD.
The other big question hovering around this offense is the status of First Team All-SEC OT Warren McClendon. As with McConkey, McClendon suffered a knee injury in the SEC Championship Game, and his status is unknown prior to the Peach Bowl. That would be a big loss for Georgia.
Georgia’s defense is ranked 2nd in Defensive SP+. The Bulldogs had one of the best run defenses in the country, allowing just 3.0 YPC and 81.8 YPG on the ground. Jalen Carter is a probable top five pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and was a First Team All-SEC selection.
Unfortunately, top pass rusher Nolan Smith was lost for the season in late October. Starting safety Dan Jackson suffered a season-ending injury two months ago as well, but Georgia has done a better job of overcoming that setback.
Senior cornerback Christopher Smith had a fine year too and will be asked to help shut down some of the best receivers in college football.
NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
January 2
ReliaQuest Bowl (Tampa)
Mississippi State vs Illinois
Mississippi State (8-4)
MSU coach Leach passed away December 12; I’m thinking stats/trends don’t matter so much for this game, but I’ll post them.
— Bulldogs scored 24+ points in wins, 19 or less in losses.
— Miss State is 2-3 SU away from home, losing by 15-10-24 points.
— Miss State’s only road win was 39-17 (-11) at Arizona.
— Bulldogs are 5-4 ATS last nine games as an underdog.
— MSU is 7-9 SU last 16 games decided by 7 or less points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 82 starts back on offensive line; soph QB 19 starts
— Bulldogs are 6-4-1 ATS last 11 non-conference games.
— Over is 6-3 in Bulldogs’ last nine games.
— Miss State lost three of last four bowls, giving up 31.3 ppg.
— Would appear that assistant coach Steve Spurrier Jr will be MSU’s #1 coach on offense in this game.
Illinois (8-4)
— Illinois lost three of its last four games, after a 7-1 start.
— Last 3 games, Illinois allowed 358.7 yards/game (217.5 first eight I-A tilts)
— Illini was held to 20-15-24-17 points in losses (6-0 score 26+ points)
— Illinois is 1-4 SU in games decided by 8 or less points.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 74 starts return on offensive line; QB started 18 games at Syracuse.
— Under Bielema, Illinois is 9-3 ATS as an underdog.
— Illinois is 3-6 ATS in its last nine non-conference games.
— In his career, Bielema is 4-5 SU in bowl games.
— Under is 6-4 in their last ten games.
— This is Illini’s first bowl since 2019, second one since 2014.
— Illinois lost last two bowls: 35-20/35-18. Their last bowl win: 2011.
— Underdogs covered four of last five Outback Bowls.
— Last ten years, SEC teams are 7-3 vs Big 14 in this game.
— Since 2019, Big 14 teams are 9-4 ATS vs SEC teams.
Citrus Bowl (@ Orlando)
LSU vs Purdue
LSU (9-4)
— Tigers lost its last two games, giving up 38-50 points
— LSU gave up 274-255 RY in those two games.
— LSU is 7-1 when it scores more than 23 points.
— Tigers are 2-4 SU when they score less than 31 points.
— LSU is 7-12 ATS in last 19 games as a favorite.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 41 starts back on offensive line; QB started 29 games at Arizona State
— In his career, Kelly is 7-6 SU in bowl games.
— LSU is 6-2 ATS in last eight non-conference games
— Six of last seven LSU games went over the total.
— LSU won three of last four bowls, scoring 43.5 ppg.
Purdue (8-5)
— Purdue’s coach bolted to Louisville; they’ve got an interim coach.
— Drew Brees is on board as an interim offensive assistant.
— Purdue won three of last four games, scoring 25 ppg.
— Purdue is 17-10 ATS last 27 games as an underdog.
— Boilers’ losses this year are by 4-3-11-21-21 points.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 77 starts return on offensive line; senior QB has 15 starts
— Boilers are 20-12 ATS last 32 games as an underdog.
— Boilers are 12-8 ATS in last 20 non-conference games.
— In its losses, Purdue was held to 82 rushing yards/game.
— Under is 3-1 in Purdue’s last four games.
— Purdue is 3-2 in last five bowls, scoring 30.2 ppg.
— Average total in those five bowls: 76.8.
— Favorites are 7-4 ATS in last eleven Citrus Bowls.
— Last ten years, SEC is 7-2 SU vs Big 14 teams in this bowl.
— Since 2019, Big 14 teams are 9-4 ATS vs SEC teams.
Cotton Bowl (@ Arlington, TX)
USC vs Tulane
USC (11-2)
— USC’s only losses were 43-42/47-24, both to Utah.
— Last seven games, USC scored 41.9 ppg.
— Trojans scored 38+ points in 10 of their 13 games.
— USC has a +21 turnover margin this season.
— Last seven games, USC gave up 35.9 ppg.
— 8 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 109 starts back on offensive line; soph QB started 7 games at Oklahoma
— Trojans are 7-5 ATS this year as a favorite.
— In his career, Riley is 31-29 ATS as a favorite.
— USC is 5-1 ATS in last six non-conference games.
— Over is 7-0 in Trojans’ last seven games.
— Riley was 1-3 SU in bowl games while at Oklahoma.
— USC lost three of last four bowl games; their last bowl was in 2019.
Tulane (11-2)
— Tulane was 2-10 last year; this is a remarkable turnaround.
— Green Wave won eight of its last nine games.
— Tulane scored 35.9 ppg in those nine games.
— Tulane is 8-5-1 ATS last 14 games as an underdog.
— Green Wave is 8-0 allowing 24 or less points.
— Tulane gave up 27-38 points in its two losses.
— 9 starters back on offense; 9 on defense
— 108 starts back on OL; soph QB has 18 starts
— In his career, Fritz is 22-19-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Last four games, Tulane allowed 214.3 rushing yards/game.
— Over is 6-1 in their last seven games.
— Tulane is 3-2 SU in its last five bowls.
— Favorites won/covered last seven Cotton Bowls.
— Since 2014, AAC teams are 7-2 SU/8-1 ATS vs Pac-12 squads.
Rose Bowl (@ Pasadena)
Utah vs Penn State
Utah (10-3)
— Utes won six of its last seven games.
— Last five games, Utah ran ball for 269.4 yards/game.
— Utes are 1-5 ATS this year in games with single digit spread.
— Utah scored 32+ points in 10 of their last 12 games.
— Utah is +8 in turnovers this season.
— Utes have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 73 starts back on offensive line; junior QB started 12 games
— Utah is 9-12 ATS in last 21 games as a favorite.
— Utah is 4-8 ATS in last 12 non-conference games.
— Whittingham is 11-4 in his career in bowls, but…….
— Utah lost last three bowls, giving up 31-38-48 points.
— Four of their last six games stayed under the total.
Penn State (10-2)
— Penn State won its four games, scoring 41.3 ppg.
— Nittany Lions held last five opponents under 100 YR.
— Penn State gave up 41-44 points in losses to Michigan/Ohio State
— PSU played only one game decided by less than 10 points (1-0)
— Penn State has 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
— Penn State has 36 returning starts on offensive line.
— Penn State has a senior QB, with 33 starts.
— Under Franklin, Penn State is 10-13 ATS as an underdog.
— Last four games, Penn State is +6 in turnovers.
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Nittany Lions are 2-3 SU in last five bowl games.
— Penn State (+7) lost Rose Bowl 52-49 six years ago.
— Underdogs covered five of last six Rose Bowls.
— Pac-12 teams are 6-3 SU in their last nine Rose Bowls.
— Big 14 teams are 9-12 ATS in last 21 games vs Pac-12 teams.
NCAAF
Bowl Season
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Trend Report
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Mississippi State @ Illinois
Mississippi State
Mississippi State is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Mississippi State's last 9 games
Illinois
Illinois is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
Illinois is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Tulane @ Southern California
Tulane
Tulane is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Tulane is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Southern California
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Southern California's last 5 games
Southern California is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
Louisiana State @ Purdue
Louisiana State
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Louisiana State's last 7 games
Louisiana State is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
Purdue
Purdue is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Purdue's last 15 games
Penn State @ Utah
Penn State
Penn State is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Penn State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Utah
Utah is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
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Monday, Jan. 2
Reliaquest Bowl Trends
Miss State vs. Illinois (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Of course the (Mike) Leach factor here.
Zach Arnett promoted for Bulldogs.
MSU 1-3 vs. line last four years in bowls, Illini hasn’t bowled since 2019 Redbox vs Cal, no bowl wins since 2011 vs. UCLA.
Brett Bielema was 2-1 SU and vs. line in bowls with Arkansas, 3-3 vs. spread in bowls with Wiscy.
Illinois 13-6-1 vs. spread since early 2021, no covers last three years in bowls/
Also “under” 15-7-1 since Bielema arrived last year.
Tech Play: Illinois & Under
Cotton Bowl Trends
Tulane vs. USC (ESPN, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Wave last bowled in 2020, lost Potato vs. Nevada, but Willie Fritz did win and cover bowls in 2018 & ‘19.
USC no bowls since 2019 Holiday (lost to Iowa), Trojans no covers last five bowls.
Lincoln Riley 2-3 SU and vs. spread in bowls with Sooners.
Wave 11-2 vs. spread this season, 15-3 last 18 vs. line since late 2021.
Tulane 5-0 vs. line away from home this season, and has covered last three as dog.
Wave “over” last four in 2022.
Trojans “over” 10-3 this season, 16-6 "over" since early 2021.
Tech Play: Tulane & Over
Citrus Bowl Trends
LSU vs. Purdue (ABC, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Note Jeff Brohm move to ‘Ville, Brian Brohm will be interim HC for Boilermakers in bowl.
Purdue won and covered Music City vs. Vols last year.
Brian Kelly just 3-6 vs. spread his last nine bowls with Notre Dame.
LSU Tigers were depleted and lost big in Texas Bowl last year.
Boilermakers 4-3 vs. line away this season but only 5-8 overall vs. spread, 3-3 as dog.
LSU lost last two outright this season and just 1-3 last four vs. spread.
Tigers also 1-5 vs. line away from Baton Rouge in 2022.
LSU “over” 6-1 to close season.
Purdue 10-5 “over” since late 2021.
Tech Play: Purdue & Over
Rose Bowl Trends
Penn State vs. Utah (ESPN, 5:00 p.m. ET)
James Franklin lost Outback Bowl LY, 3-3 vs. spread last six bowls with Nittany Lions.
Kyle Whittingham 10-4 SU, 9-5 vs. spread in bowls with Utes, though has lost last two outright (covered vs. OSU in Rose LY).
Penn State 5-0-1 vs. spread down stretch in 2022, 8-3 vs. line this season.
PSU “over” 8-4 in 2022.
Utes 15-8 vs. line since early 2021, also on 14-9 “over” run.
Tech Play: Utah & Over
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
January 2
ReliaQuest Bowl (Tampa)
Mississippi State vs Illinois
Mississippi State (8-4)
MSU coach Leach passed away December 12; I’m thinking stats/trends don’t matter so much for this game, but I’ll post them.
— Bulldogs scored 24+ points in wins, 19 or less in losses.
— Miss State is 2-3 SU away from home, losing by 15-10-24 points.
— Miss State’s only road win was 39-17 (-11) at Arizona.
— Bulldogs are 5-4 ATS last nine games as an underdog.
— MSU is 7-9 SU last 16 games decided by 7 or less points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 82 starts back on offensive line; soph QB 19 starts
— Bulldogs are 6-4-1 ATS last 11 non-conference games.
— Over is 6-3 in Bulldogs’ last nine games.
— Miss State lost three of last four bowls, giving up 31.3 ppg.
— Would appear that assistant coach Steve Spurrier Jr will be MSU’s #1 coach on offense in this game.
Illinois (8-4)
— Illinois lost three of its last four games, after a 7-1 start.
— Last 3 games, Illinois allowed 358.7 yards/game (217.5 first eight I-A tilts)
— Illini was held to 20-15-24-17 points in losses (6-0 score 26+ points)
— Illinois is 1-4 SU in games decided by 8 or less points.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 74 starts return on offensive line; QB started 18 games at Syracuse.
— Under Bielema, Illinois is 9-3 ATS as an underdog.
— Illinois is 3-6 ATS in its last nine non-conference games.
— In his career, Bielema is 4-5 SU in bowl games.
— Under is 6-4 in their last ten games.
— This is Illini’s first bowl since 2019, second one since 2014.
— Illinois lost last two bowls: 35-20/35-18. Their last bowl win: 2011.
— Underdogs covered four of last five Outback Bowls.
— Last ten years, SEC teams are 7-3 vs Big 14 in this game.
— Since 2019, Big 14 teams are 9-4 ATS vs SEC teams.
Citrus Bowl (@ Orlando)
LSU vs Purdue
LSU (9-4)
— Tigers lost its last two games, giving up 38-50 points
— LSU gave up 274-255 RY in those two games.
— LSU is 7-1 when it scores more than 23 points.
— Tigers are 2-4 SU when they score less than 31 points.
— LSU is 7-12 ATS in last 19 games as a favorite.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 41 starts back on offensive line; QB started 29 games at Arizona State
— In his career, Kelly is 7-6 SU in bowl games.
— LSU is 6-2 ATS in last eight non-conference games
— Six of last seven LSU games went over the total.
— LSU won three of last four bowls, scoring 43.5 ppg.
Purdue (8-5)
— Purdue’s coach bolted to Louisville; they’ve got an interim coach.
— Drew Brees is on board as an interim offensive assistant.
— Purdue won three of last four games, scoring 25 ppg.
— Purdue is 17-10 ATS last 27 games as an underdog.
— Boilers’ losses this year are by 4-3-11-21-21 points.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 77 starts return on offensive line; senior QB has 15 starts
— Boilers are 20-12 ATS last 32 games as an underdog.
— Boilers are 12-8 ATS in last 20 non-conference games.
— In its losses, Purdue was held to 82 rushing yards/game.
— Under is 3-1 in Purdue’s last four games.
— Purdue is 3-2 in last five bowls, scoring 30.2 ppg.
— Average total in those five bowls: 76.8.
— Favorites are 7-4 ATS in last eleven Citrus Bowls.
— Last ten years, SEC is 7-2 SU vs Big 14 teams in this bowl.
— Since 2019, Big 14 teams are 9-4 ATS vs SEC teams.
Cotton Bowl (@ Arlington, TX)
USC vs Tulane
USC (11-2)
— USC’s only losses were 43-42/47-24, both to Utah.
— Last seven games, USC scored 41.9 ppg.
— Trojans scored 38+ points in 10 of their 13 games.
— USC has a +21 turnover margin this season.
— Last seven games, USC gave up 35.9 ppg.
— 8 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 109 starts back on offensive line; soph QB started 7 games at Oklahoma
— Trojans are 7-5 ATS this year as a favorite.
— In his career, Riley is 31-29 ATS as a favorite.
— USC is 5-1 ATS in last six non-conference games.
— Over is 7-0 in Trojans’ last seven games.
— Riley was 1-3 SU in bowl games while at Oklahoma.
— USC lost three of last four bowl games; their last bowl was in 2019.
Tulane (11-2)
— Tulane was 2-10 last year; this is a remarkable turnaround.
— Green Wave won eight of its last nine games.
— Tulane scored 35.9 ppg in those nine games.
— Tulane is 8-5-1 ATS last 14 games as an underdog.
— Green Wave is 8-0 allowing 24 or less points.
— Tulane gave up 27-38 points in its two losses.
— 9 starters back on offense; 9 on defense
— 108 starts back on OL; soph QB has 18 starts
— In his career, Fritz is 22-19-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Last four games, Tulane allowed 214.3 rushing yards/game.
— Over is 6-1 in their last seven games.
— Tulane is 3-2 SU in its last five bowls.
— Favorites won/covered last seven Cotton Bowls.
— Since 2014, AAC teams are 7-2 SU/8-1 ATS vs Pac-12 squads.
Rose Bowl (@ Pasadena)
Utah vs Penn State
Utah (10-3)
— Utes won six of its last seven games.
— Last five games, Utah ran ball for 269.4 yards/game.
— Utes are 1-5 ATS this year in games with single digit spread.
— Utah scored 32+ points in 10 of their last 12 games.
— Utah is +8 in turnovers this season.
— Utes have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 73 starts back on offensive line; junior QB started 12 games
— Utah is 9-12 ATS in last 21 games as a favorite.
— Utah is 4-8 ATS in last 12 non-conference games.
— Whittingham is 11-4 in his career in bowls, but…….
— Utah lost last three bowls, giving up 31-38-48 points.
— Four of their last six games stayed under the total.
Penn State (10-2)
— Penn State won its four games, scoring 41.3 ppg.
— Nittany Lions held last five opponents under 100 YR.
— Penn State gave up 41-44 points in losses to Michigan/Ohio State
— PSU played only one game decided by less than 10 points (1-0)
— Penn State has 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
— Penn State has 36 returning starts on offensive line.
— Penn State has a senior QB, with 33 starts.
— Under Franklin, Penn State is 10-13 ATS as an underdog.
— Last four games, Penn State is +6 in turnovers.
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Nittany Lions are 2-3 SU in last five bowl games.
— Penn State (+7) lost Rose Bowl 52-49 six years ago.
— Underdogs covered five of last six Rose Bowls.
— Pac-12 teams are 6-3 SU in their last nine Rose Bowls.
— Big 14 teams are 9-12 ATS in last 21 games vs Pac-12 teams.
NCAAF
Bowl Season
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Trend Report
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Mississippi State @ Illinois
Mississippi State
Mississippi State is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Mississippi State's last 9 games
Illinois
Illinois is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
Illinois is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Tulane @ Southern California
Tulane
Tulane is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Tulane is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Southern California
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Southern California's last 5 games
Southern California is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
Louisiana State @ Purdue
Louisiana State
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Louisiana State's last 7 games
Louisiana State is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
Purdue
Purdue is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Purdue's last 15 games
Penn State @ Utah
Penn State
Penn State is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Penn State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Utah
Utah is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
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Monday, Jan. 2
Reliaquest Bowl Trends
Miss State vs. Illinois (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Of course the (Mike) Leach factor here.
Zach Arnett promoted for Bulldogs.
MSU 1-3 vs. line last four years in bowls, Illini hasn’t bowled since 2019 Redbox vs Cal, no bowl wins since 2011 vs. UCLA.
Brett Bielema was 2-1 SU and vs. line in bowls with Arkansas, 3-3 vs. spread in bowls with Wiscy.
Illinois 13-6-1 vs. spread since early 2021, no covers last three years in bowls/
Also “under” 15-7-1 since Bielema arrived last year.
Tech Play: Illinois & Under
Cotton Bowl Trends
Tulane vs. USC (ESPN, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Wave last bowled in 2020, lost Potato vs. Nevada, but Willie Fritz did win and cover bowls in 2018 & ‘19.
USC no bowls since 2019 Holiday (lost to Iowa), Trojans no covers last five bowls.
Lincoln Riley 2-3 SU and vs. spread in bowls with Sooners.
Wave 11-2 vs. spread this season, 15-3 last 18 vs. line since late 2021.
Tulane 5-0 vs. line away from home this season, and has covered last three as dog.
Wave “over” last four in 2022.
Trojans “over” 10-3 this season, 16-6 "over" since early 2021.
Tech Play: Tulane & Over
Citrus Bowl Trends
LSU vs. Purdue (ABC, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Note Jeff Brohm move to ‘Ville, Brian Brohm will be interim HC for Boilermakers in bowl.
Purdue won and covered Music City vs. Vols last year.
Brian Kelly just 3-6 vs. spread his last nine bowls with Notre Dame.
LSU Tigers were depleted and lost big in Texas Bowl last year.
Boilermakers 4-3 vs. line away this season but only 5-8 overall vs. spread, 3-3 as dog.
LSU lost last two outright this season and just 1-3 last four vs. spread.
Tigers also 1-5 vs. line away from Baton Rouge in 2022.
LSU “over” 6-1 to close season.
Purdue 10-5 “over” since late 2021.
Tech Play: Purdue & Over
Rose Bowl Trends
Penn State vs. Utah (ESPN, 5:00 p.m. ET)
James Franklin lost Outback Bowl LY, 3-3 vs. spread last six bowls with Nittany Lions.
Kyle Whittingham 10-4 SU, 9-5 vs. spread in bowls with Utes, though has lost last two outright (covered vs. OSU in Rose LY).
Penn State 5-0-1 vs. spread down stretch in 2022, 8-3 vs. line this season.
PSU “over” 8-4 in 2022.
Utes 15-8 vs. line since early 2021, also on 14-9 “over” run.
Tech Play: Utah & Over
| Date | W-L-T | % | Units | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2022 | 5-3-0 | 62.50% | +850 | Detail |
| 12/30/2022 | 5-3-0 | 62.50% | +850 | Detail |
| 12/29/2022 | 2-2-0 | 50.00% | -100 | Detail |
| 12/28/2022 | 5-3-0 | 62.50% | +850 | Detail |
| 12/27/2022 | 3-1-0 | 75.00% | +950 | Detail |
| 12/24/2022 | 0-2-0 | 0.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 12/23/2022 | 1-2-1 | 37.50% | -600 | Detail |
| 12/22/2022 | 1-1-0 | 50.00% | -50 | Detail |
| 12/21/2022 | 2-0-0 | 100.00% | +1000 | Detail |
| 12/20/2022 | 2-2-0 | 50.00% | -100 | Detail |
| 12/19/2022 | 0-2-0 | 0.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 12/17/2022 | 6-6-0 | 50.00% | -300 | Detail |
| 12/16/2022 | 3-1-0 | 75.00% | +950 | Detail |
Armadillo Sports
TCU 51, Michigan 45
— TCU led 21-6 at halftime; Michigan scored 39 points in 2nd half, and still lost.
— TCU was 8-16 on third down, Wolverines were 3-13.
— Both teams turned the ball over three times.
— Horned Frogs scored 34+ points in 11 of 14 games this season.
— Michigan lost its last six bowls (they were favored in 4 of the 6)
Georgia 42, Ohio State 41
— Ohio State led 38-24 after the third quarter.
— Dawgs drove 72 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:54 left.
— Both teams averaged over 10 yards/pass attempt.
— Georgia gained 533 yards, converted only 2-10 on third down.
— Buckeyes were 11-0, then gave up 45-42 points in losing last two games.
— This game ended just after midnight; damn near had a heart attack when some of my neighbors shot off fireworks as midnight struck.
Iowa 21, Kentucky 0
— Iowa scored two defensive TD’s; their offense scored once.
— Neither team scored in the second half.
— Iowa was 0-11 on third down, Wildcats were 2-18 (3-5 on 4th)
— Hawkeyes won five of last six games, after a 3-4 start.
— This game had lowest total of any game in last 25 years, still stayed under.
Alabama 45, Kansas State 20
— Alabama QB Young was 15-21/321 passing, with 5 TD’s.
— Crimson Tide ran 55 plays for 496 yards (9.0 yards/play)
— Alabama won its last four games, scoring 30-34-49-45 points.
— Alabama has 75 players who were 4 or 5-star recruits; K-State has 3.
— Crimson Tide won five of its last seven bowls.
TCU 51, Michigan 45
— TCU led 21-6 at halftime; Michigan scored 39 points in 2nd half, and still lost.
— TCU was 8-16 on third down, Wolverines were 3-13.
— Both teams turned the ball over three times.
— Horned Frogs scored 34+ points in 11 of 14 games this season.
— Michigan lost its last six bowls (they were favored in 4 of the 6)
Georgia 42, Ohio State 41
— Ohio State led 38-24 after the third quarter.
— Dawgs drove 72 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:54 left.
— Both teams averaged over 10 yards/pass attempt.
— Georgia gained 533 yards, converted only 2-10 on third down.
— Buckeyes were 11-0, then gave up 45-42 points in losing last two games.
— This game ended just after midnight; damn near had a heart attack when some of my neighbors shot off fireworks as midnight struck.
Iowa 21, Kentucky 0
— Iowa scored two defensive TD’s; their offense scored once.
— Neither team scored in the second half.
— Iowa was 0-11 on third down, Wildcats were 2-18 (3-5 on 4th)
— Hawkeyes won five of last six games, after a 3-4 start.
— This game had lowest total of any game in last 25 years, still stayed under.
Alabama 45, Kansas State 20
— Alabama QB Young was 15-21/321 passing, with 5 TD’s.
— Crimson Tide ran 55 plays for 496 yards (9.0 yards/play)
— Alabama won its last four games, scoring 30-34-49-45 points.
— Alabama has 75 players who were 4 or 5-star recruits; K-State has 3.
— Crimson Tide won five of its last seven bowls.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Analysis
Will Rogers was Mississippi State’s starting quarterback for the entirety of the Mike Leach era. Rogers has a ton of experience in this system, and he completed 68.2% of his passes for 3,713 yards (6.6 YPA) with 34 touchdowns and six interceptions on the season.
Leading receiver Rara Thomas decided to enter the transfer portal after catching 44 passes for 626 yards and seven touchdowns. Thomas will be missed but not as much as he would be in other systems as the Bulldogs had nine players catch at least 20 passes this season.
Rufus Harvey, Caleb Ducking, and Lideatrick Griffin are the three most dangerous receivers on the roster now.
Mississippi State had a dangerous running back tandem this season as Jo’quavious Marks and Dillon Johnson largely split the carries. Marks ran for 532 yards (5.2 YPC) and nine TDs, while Johnson ran for 488 yards (5.5 YPC) and three TDs.
Both players caught at least 45 passes too in order to help the short passing game. Marks is set to see the bulk of the carries against Illinois though after Johnson entered the transfer portal.
Leach didn’t have many good defenses during his two-decade coaching tenure, but defensive coordinator turned head coach Zach Arnett had an excellent unit in 2022. Arnett ran a 3-3-5 (reminding old fans of the Jackie Sherrill days) system, and Mississippi State ended up having the 27th best defense per SP+.
The strength of the defense was in the secondary. First Team All-SEC cornerback Emmanuel Forbes will suit up one more time before turning pro, and he could have a huge impact in this game.
Safety Jackie Matthews will be following in Forbes’ footsteps, but his backfield partner Collin Duncan decided to skip the bowl game in order to focus on the NFL Draft.
Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Analysis
Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito had a fine season under center for Illinois. DeVito wasn’t asked to throw much in this run-heavy offense (Illinois ran on 58.1% of its plays), but he played well when called upon by Bret Bielema. He completed 69.9% of his passes for 2,397 yards (7.2 YPA) with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions.
Unfortunately, Illinois won’t have standout running back Chase Brown available for this game. Brown made the decision to opt out and prepare for the NFL Draft after suffering an injury late in the season.
He was one of the best running backs in college football this season with 355 touches for 1,883 yards and 12 touchdowns. That will thrust Reggie Love III into the spotlight, but he wasn’t as efficient as Brown during the regular season.
Isaiah Williams is the player to watch in the passing game for Illinois. Williams caught a lot of underneath passes and finished the regular season with 72 catches for 595 yards and five touchdowns. Pat Bryant and Brian Hightower should also see some attention, and they are more likely to be targeted downfield.
The Fighting Illini had the third-best defense in the country per SP+. Illinois was fantastic on this side of the ball, conceding just 13.4 PPG and 277.4 YPG.
They have the best pass defense in college football and lead the nation in interception rate, but they will be significantly weaker in the secondary as First Team All-Big Ten defensive backs Devon Witherspoon and Sydney Brown opted out of this game to focus on the NFL Draft.
Jartavius Martin did decide to play in this game, giving the unit a boost, but this secondary will have some fresh faces while facing a more pass-happy team than any other opponent they have faced this season.
Tulane Green Wave Betting Analysis
This is the biggest game Tulane has played in the 21st Century, so it’s no surprise that there are no opt outs for the Green Wave.
The offense is led by Tyjae Spears, who became the first non-quarterback to be named AAC Offensive Player of the Year last month. Spears ran for 1,376 yards (6.5 YPC) and 15 touchdowns in Willie Fritz’s hybrid option offense.
Michael Pratt was a Second Team All-AAC selection after putting together his best season yet under center for the Green Wave. Pratt completed 64.5% of his passes for 2,776 yards (8.6 YPA) with 25 touchdowns and five interceptions. He also showed his mobility with 395 yards (3.5 YPC) and 10 touchdowns as a runner.
These receivers aren’t great, but they have been able to get the job done in this offense. Shae Wyatt and Duece Watts were the big play threats for Tulane as Wyatt caught 35 passes for 692 yards and seven TDs, while Watts hauled in 31 receptions for 574 yards and eight TDs.
Jha’Quan Jackson, Lawrence Keys III, and tight end Tyrick James are the underneath threats to watch in the passing game.
Tulane’s defense was ranked 30th in Defensive SP+. The Green Wave had one of the most underrated secondaries in the country though, allowing just 6.1 YPA.
Cornerback Jarius Monroe and safety Macon Clark were First Team All-AAC selections, and linebacker Dorian Williams was one of the best defensive players in the conference.
USC Trojans Betting Analysis
Caleb Williams may have brought the enmity of Oklahoma fans when he decided to leave Norman and head to USC with Lincoln Riley, but it’s hard to criticize him for the decision after the numbers he posted this season.
Williams thrived with a collection of great receivers in Riley’s offense, completing 66.1% of his passes for 4,075 yards (9.1 YPA) with 37 touchdowns and four interceptions on his way to winning the Heisman Trophy.
He was also a dangerous runner, averaging 7.8 YPC with 10 rushing touchdowns once you take out sack yardage. However, his mobility may be limited in this game as Williams has been dealing with a hamstring injury.
This offense will be without leading rusher Travis Dye though. The Oregon transfer suffered a season-ending knee injury in November, leading to Stanford transfer Austin Jones taking over as the top running back. Jones ran for 644 yards (5.7 YPC) and 10 touchdowns this season, and he was more of a receiving threat out of the backfield than Dye.
Standout receiver Jordan Addison will skip this game after suffering an ankle injury. Addison was the Biletnikoff Award winner as the nation’s top receiver at Pittsburgh last year, and he led USC with 59 receptions for 875 yards and eight touchdowns in 2022.
Tahj Washington and Mario Williams are excellent receivers in their own right, so the loss of Addison won’t impact the Trojans as much as it would other teams.
USC’s defense is ranked 71st in SP+. The Trojans surrendered 415.1 YPG and struggled against both the run and the pass. Defensive lineman Tuli Tuipulotu was outstanding and ended up being named PAC 12 Defensive Player of the Year after recording 12.5 sacks and 21 tackles for loss this season.
However, there weren’t really any other playmakers on this side of the ball. Defensive backs Mekhi Blackmon and Calen Bullock earned all-conference honors, but their impact will be muted against Tulane’s offense.
Will Rogers was Mississippi State’s starting quarterback for the entirety of the Mike Leach era. Rogers has a ton of experience in this system, and he completed 68.2% of his passes for 3,713 yards (6.6 YPA) with 34 touchdowns and six interceptions on the season.
Leading receiver Rara Thomas decided to enter the transfer portal after catching 44 passes for 626 yards and seven touchdowns. Thomas will be missed but not as much as he would be in other systems as the Bulldogs had nine players catch at least 20 passes this season.
Rufus Harvey, Caleb Ducking, and Lideatrick Griffin are the three most dangerous receivers on the roster now.
Mississippi State had a dangerous running back tandem this season as Jo’quavious Marks and Dillon Johnson largely split the carries. Marks ran for 532 yards (5.2 YPC) and nine TDs, while Johnson ran for 488 yards (5.5 YPC) and three TDs.
Both players caught at least 45 passes too in order to help the short passing game. Marks is set to see the bulk of the carries against Illinois though after Johnson entered the transfer portal.
Leach didn’t have many good defenses during his two-decade coaching tenure, but defensive coordinator turned head coach Zach Arnett had an excellent unit in 2022. Arnett ran a 3-3-5 (reminding old fans of the Jackie Sherrill days) system, and Mississippi State ended up having the 27th best defense per SP+.
The strength of the defense was in the secondary. First Team All-SEC cornerback Emmanuel Forbes will suit up one more time before turning pro, and he could have a huge impact in this game.
Safety Jackie Matthews will be following in Forbes’ footsteps, but his backfield partner Collin Duncan decided to skip the bowl game in order to focus on the NFL Draft.
Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Analysis
Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito had a fine season under center for Illinois. DeVito wasn’t asked to throw much in this run-heavy offense (Illinois ran on 58.1% of its plays), but he played well when called upon by Bret Bielema. He completed 69.9% of his passes for 2,397 yards (7.2 YPA) with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions.
Unfortunately, Illinois won’t have standout running back Chase Brown available for this game. Brown made the decision to opt out and prepare for the NFL Draft after suffering an injury late in the season.
He was one of the best running backs in college football this season with 355 touches for 1,883 yards and 12 touchdowns. That will thrust Reggie Love III into the spotlight, but he wasn’t as efficient as Brown during the regular season.
Isaiah Williams is the player to watch in the passing game for Illinois. Williams caught a lot of underneath passes and finished the regular season with 72 catches for 595 yards and five touchdowns. Pat Bryant and Brian Hightower should also see some attention, and they are more likely to be targeted downfield.
The Fighting Illini had the third-best defense in the country per SP+. Illinois was fantastic on this side of the ball, conceding just 13.4 PPG and 277.4 YPG.
They have the best pass defense in college football and lead the nation in interception rate, but they will be significantly weaker in the secondary as First Team All-Big Ten defensive backs Devon Witherspoon and Sydney Brown opted out of this game to focus on the NFL Draft.
Jartavius Martin did decide to play in this game, giving the unit a boost, but this secondary will have some fresh faces while facing a more pass-happy team than any other opponent they have faced this season.
Tulane Green Wave Betting Analysis
This is the biggest game Tulane has played in the 21st Century, so it’s no surprise that there are no opt outs for the Green Wave.
The offense is led by Tyjae Spears, who became the first non-quarterback to be named AAC Offensive Player of the Year last month. Spears ran for 1,376 yards (6.5 YPC) and 15 touchdowns in Willie Fritz’s hybrid option offense.
Michael Pratt was a Second Team All-AAC selection after putting together his best season yet under center for the Green Wave. Pratt completed 64.5% of his passes for 2,776 yards (8.6 YPA) with 25 touchdowns and five interceptions. He also showed his mobility with 395 yards (3.5 YPC) and 10 touchdowns as a runner.
These receivers aren’t great, but they have been able to get the job done in this offense. Shae Wyatt and Duece Watts were the big play threats for Tulane as Wyatt caught 35 passes for 692 yards and seven TDs, while Watts hauled in 31 receptions for 574 yards and eight TDs.
Jha’Quan Jackson, Lawrence Keys III, and tight end Tyrick James are the underneath threats to watch in the passing game.
Tulane’s defense was ranked 30th in Defensive SP+. The Green Wave had one of the most underrated secondaries in the country though, allowing just 6.1 YPA.
Cornerback Jarius Monroe and safety Macon Clark were First Team All-AAC selections, and linebacker Dorian Williams was one of the best defensive players in the conference.
USC Trojans Betting Analysis
Caleb Williams may have brought the enmity of Oklahoma fans when he decided to leave Norman and head to USC with Lincoln Riley, but it’s hard to criticize him for the decision after the numbers he posted this season.
Williams thrived with a collection of great receivers in Riley’s offense, completing 66.1% of his passes for 4,075 yards (9.1 YPA) with 37 touchdowns and four interceptions on his way to winning the Heisman Trophy.
He was also a dangerous runner, averaging 7.8 YPC with 10 rushing touchdowns once you take out sack yardage. However, his mobility may be limited in this game as Williams has been dealing with a hamstring injury.
This offense will be without leading rusher Travis Dye though. The Oregon transfer suffered a season-ending knee injury in November, leading to Stanford transfer Austin Jones taking over as the top running back. Jones ran for 644 yards (5.7 YPC) and 10 touchdowns this season, and he was more of a receiving threat out of the backfield than Dye.
Standout receiver Jordan Addison will skip this game after suffering an ankle injury. Addison was the Biletnikoff Award winner as the nation’s top receiver at Pittsburgh last year, and he led USC with 59 receptions for 875 yards and eight touchdowns in 2022.
Tahj Washington and Mario Williams are excellent receivers in their own right, so the loss of Addison won’t impact the Trojans as much as it would other teams.
USC’s defense is ranked 71st in SP+. The Trojans surrendered 415.1 YPG and struggled against both the run and the pass. Defensive lineman Tuli Tuipulotu was outstanding and ended up being named PAC 12 Defensive Player of the Year after recording 12.5 sacks and 21 tackles for loss this season.
However, there weren’t really any other playmakers on this side of the ball. Defensive backs Mekhi Blackmon and Calen Bullock earned all-conference honors, but their impact will be muted against Tulane’s offense.
LSU Tigers Betting Analysis
It looks like Jayden Daniels will be able to play in this game. The Arizona State transfer improved markedly over the course of the season, but he had a nagging ankle injury by the end of the year. It was clear that Daniels wasn’t at 100% in the SEC Championship Game, yet he has had a month to rest and recuperate, and reports are that he will suit up on Monday. Daniels completed 68.5% of his passes for 2,774 yards (7.5 YPA) with 16 touchdowns and three interceptions on the season, and he was the leading rusher for LSU too with 818 yards (4.5 YPC) and 11 touchdowns.
Josh Williams, Noah Cain, and John Emery III split the backfield workload and all three players will take part in the Citrus Bowl. However, there will be a lot of talent missing from the receiving corps. Kayshon Boutte was slated to take part in the bowl game but decided not to play earlier this week. Jaray Jenkins opted out, Kyren Lacy is injured, and Jack Bech entered the transfer portal, so LSU doesn’t have a lot of depth behind Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. against the Boilermakers.
LSU’s defense ranked 32nd in SP+ this season. Unfortunately for the Bayou Bengals, this defense won’t have a lot of its talent in this game. Star defensive ends Ali Gaye and B.J. Ojulari both opted out to focus on the NFL Draft. Nose tackle Jaquelin Roy and defensive backs Jay Ward and Mekhi Garner followed suit shortly afterwards, and several other players entered the transfer portal. The linebackers will be the strength of this defense with Micah Baskerville and sensational freshman Harold Perkins Jr. leading the way.
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Analysis
The Boilermakers won’t have star quarterback Aidan O’Connell available for this game as he decided to opt out in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. O’Connell is seen as a mid-round pick after completing 64.1% of his passes for 3,490 yards (7.0 YPA) with 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Austin Burton will now start in his place, and Burton didn’t see much action in the regular season. He completed 24 of 32 passes for 199 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. Unlike O’Connell, Burton is a little bit of a mobile threat, so that will give this offense something new.
This offense will need some kind of spark as the receiving corps has been decimated due to opt outs and injuries. Top receiver Charlie Jones opted out after a season in which he caught 110 passes for 1,361 yards and 12 touchdowns, and standout tight end Payne Durham opted out too. T.J. Sheffield is the top returning option with 39 receptions for 424 yards and three touchdowns, but the good news is that the top two running backs are still at West Lafayette. Devin Mockobee had 211 touches for 1,168 yards and nine touchdowns, and Dylan Downing was solid in short yardage situations.
Purdue ranked 54th in Defensive SP+ even though the Boilermakers didn’t place a single player on the all-conference team. Cornerback Cory Trice was arguably the best player on this side of the ball, and he will be opting out after leading the team with 10 pass breakups. Safety Cam Allen had three interceptions and six pass breakups, and Jack Sullivan led the team with 5.5 sacks.
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Analysis
The Nittany Lions were blown out by both Michigan and Ohio State, but they took care of business against everyone else on their schedule including Auburn and Purdue. Sean Clifford has been an above average quarterback during his time in Happy Valley, and the four-year starter completed 63.6% of his passes for 2,543 yards (7.7 YPA) with 22 touchdowns and seven interceptions. However, he won’t have his top option on the perimeter in the Rose Bowl as Parker Washington opted out of the game in order to declare for the NFL Draft.
Mitchell Tinsley and tight end Brenton Strange will likely be the primary targets for Clifford with Washington out. Tight end Theo Johnson and KeAndre Lambert-Smith are players to watch in the red zone.
Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen split the carries in the backfield after Keyvone Lee was sidelined for most of the season with an injury. Singleton ran for 941 yards (6.3 YPC) and 10 touchdowns, while Allen ran for 830 yards (5.3 YPC) and nine TDs.
Penn State ranked 11th in Defensive SP+ this season. Elite cornerback Joey Porter Jr. is a three-time all-conference award winner at the position, but he decided to opt out of the Rose Bowl in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. Everyone else on this defense is slated to play though, including All-Big Ten selections like Abdul Carter, P.J. Mustipher, and Kalen King.
Utah Utes Betting Analysis
Cam Rising is still developing, but he had a strong sophomore season under center for Utah. Rising completed 66.2% of his passes for 2,939 yards (8.1 YPA) with 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He was only sacked eight times behind an excellent offensive line that had multiple all-conference selections, and that helped Rising run for 409 yards and six touchdowns.
This offense depends on tight ends more than any other offense in the league. However, Brant Kuithe suffered a season-ending injury in late September, and Dalton Kincaid decided to opt out rather than risk injury in the bowl game. Devaughn Vele is the leading returning receiver with 50 receptions for 595 yards and five touchdowns, and tight end Thomas Yassmin should see a heavy workload with Kuithe and Kincaid absent.
Utah has a very good ground game. The Utes ran for almost 3,000 yards this season as five different players had at least 360 rushing yards. Top running back Tavion Thomas opted out of the Rose Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft, but Micah Bernard, Jaylon Glover, and Ja’Quinden Jackson have all flashed for moments.
The Utes rank 21st in Defensive SP+ coming into bowl season. Utah has done a very good job stopping the run with the size up front, but the secondary has left something to be desired. That means Clark Phillips III’s decision to opt out after leading the team with six interceptions is a very big blow. Junior Tafuna and Karene Reid are sophomores that will be asked to play a much bigger role after being named Second Team All-PAC 12 picks.
It looks like Jayden Daniels will be able to play in this game. The Arizona State transfer improved markedly over the course of the season, but he had a nagging ankle injury by the end of the year. It was clear that Daniels wasn’t at 100% in the SEC Championship Game, yet he has had a month to rest and recuperate, and reports are that he will suit up on Monday. Daniels completed 68.5% of his passes for 2,774 yards (7.5 YPA) with 16 touchdowns and three interceptions on the season, and he was the leading rusher for LSU too with 818 yards (4.5 YPC) and 11 touchdowns.
Josh Williams, Noah Cain, and John Emery III split the backfield workload and all three players will take part in the Citrus Bowl. However, there will be a lot of talent missing from the receiving corps. Kayshon Boutte was slated to take part in the bowl game but decided not to play earlier this week. Jaray Jenkins opted out, Kyren Lacy is injured, and Jack Bech entered the transfer portal, so LSU doesn’t have a lot of depth behind Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. against the Boilermakers.
LSU’s defense ranked 32nd in SP+ this season. Unfortunately for the Bayou Bengals, this defense won’t have a lot of its talent in this game. Star defensive ends Ali Gaye and B.J. Ojulari both opted out to focus on the NFL Draft. Nose tackle Jaquelin Roy and defensive backs Jay Ward and Mekhi Garner followed suit shortly afterwards, and several other players entered the transfer portal. The linebackers will be the strength of this defense with Micah Baskerville and sensational freshman Harold Perkins Jr. leading the way.
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Analysis
The Boilermakers won’t have star quarterback Aidan O’Connell available for this game as he decided to opt out in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. O’Connell is seen as a mid-round pick after completing 64.1% of his passes for 3,490 yards (7.0 YPA) with 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Austin Burton will now start in his place, and Burton didn’t see much action in the regular season. He completed 24 of 32 passes for 199 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. Unlike O’Connell, Burton is a little bit of a mobile threat, so that will give this offense something new.
This offense will need some kind of spark as the receiving corps has been decimated due to opt outs and injuries. Top receiver Charlie Jones opted out after a season in which he caught 110 passes for 1,361 yards and 12 touchdowns, and standout tight end Payne Durham opted out too. T.J. Sheffield is the top returning option with 39 receptions for 424 yards and three touchdowns, but the good news is that the top two running backs are still at West Lafayette. Devin Mockobee had 211 touches for 1,168 yards and nine touchdowns, and Dylan Downing was solid in short yardage situations.
Purdue ranked 54th in Defensive SP+ even though the Boilermakers didn’t place a single player on the all-conference team. Cornerback Cory Trice was arguably the best player on this side of the ball, and he will be opting out after leading the team with 10 pass breakups. Safety Cam Allen had three interceptions and six pass breakups, and Jack Sullivan led the team with 5.5 sacks.
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Analysis
The Nittany Lions were blown out by both Michigan and Ohio State, but they took care of business against everyone else on their schedule including Auburn and Purdue. Sean Clifford has been an above average quarterback during his time in Happy Valley, and the four-year starter completed 63.6% of his passes for 2,543 yards (7.7 YPA) with 22 touchdowns and seven interceptions. However, he won’t have his top option on the perimeter in the Rose Bowl as Parker Washington opted out of the game in order to declare for the NFL Draft.
Mitchell Tinsley and tight end Brenton Strange will likely be the primary targets for Clifford with Washington out. Tight end Theo Johnson and KeAndre Lambert-Smith are players to watch in the red zone.
Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen split the carries in the backfield after Keyvone Lee was sidelined for most of the season with an injury. Singleton ran for 941 yards (6.3 YPC) and 10 touchdowns, while Allen ran for 830 yards (5.3 YPC) and nine TDs.
Penn State ranked 11th in Defensive SP+ this season. Elite cornerback Joey Porter Jr. is a three-time all-conference award winner at the position, but he decided to opt out of the Rose Bowl in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. Everyone else on this defense is slated to play though, including All-Big Ten selections like Abdul Carter, P.J. Mustipher, and Kalen King.
Utah Utes Betting Analysis
Cam Rising is still developing, but he had a strong sophomore season under center for Utah. Rising completed 66.2% of his passes for 2,939 yards (8.1 YPA) with 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He was only sacked eight times behind an excellent offensive line that had multiple all-conference selections, and that helped Rising run for 409 yards and six touchdowns.
This offense depends on tight ends more than any other offense in the league. However, Brant Kuithe suffered a season-ending injury in late September, and Dalton Kincaid decided to opt out rather than risk injury in the bowl game. Devaughn Vele is the leading returning receiver with 50 receptions for 595 yards and five touchdowns, and tight end Thomas Yassmin should see a heavy workload with Kuithe and Kincaid absent.
Utah has a very good ground game. The Utes ran for almost 3,000 yards this season as five different players had at least 360 rushing yards. Top running back Tavion Thomas opted out of the Rose Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft, but Micah Bernard, Jaylon Glover, and Ja’Quinden Jackson have all flashed for moments.
The Utes rank 21st in Defensive SP+ coming into bowl season. Utah has done a very good job stopping the run with the size up front, but the secondary has left something to be desired. That means Clark Phillips III’s decision to opt out after leading the team with six interceptions is a very big blow. Junior Tafuna and Karene Reid are sophomores that will be asked to play a much bigger role after being named Second Team All-PAC 12 picks.
| Date | W-L-T | % | Units | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/2023 | 1-1-0 | 50.00% | -50 | Detail |
| 12/31/2022 | 5-3-0 | 62.50% | +850 | Detail |
| 12/30/2022 | 5-3-0 | 62.50% | +850 | Detail |
| 12/29/2022 | 2-2-0 | 50.00% | -100 | Detail |
| 12/28/2022 | 5-3-0 | 62.50% | +850 | Detail |
| 12/27/2022 | 3-1-0 | 75.00% | +950 | Detail |
| 12/24/2022 | 0-2-0 | 0.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 12/23/2022 | 1-2-1 | 37.50% | -600 | Detail |
| 12/22/2022 | 1-1-0 | 50.00% | -50 | Detail |
| 12/21/2022 | 2-0-0 | 100.00% | +1000 | Detail |
| 12/20/2022 | 2-2-0 | 50.00% | -100 | Detail |
| 12/19/2022 | 0-2-0 | 0.00% | -1100 | Detail |
| 12/17/2022 | 6-6-0 | 50.00% | -300 | Detail |
| 12/16/2022 | 3-1-0 | 75.00% | +950 | Detail |
