NCAAF
Weather Report
Bowl Season
Central Florida Knights Betting Analysis
John Rhys Plumlee was the starting quarterback for UCF this season after transferring in from Ole Miss. Plumlee was one of the most dangerous dual-threat options in the country, leading the Knights with over 2,400 passing yards and more than 840 rushing yards with 25 total touchdowns.
Unfortunately, he has been dealing with a tricky hamstring injury, and he also missed time with a strained shoulder and a concussion earlier in the year. That could lead to freshman Thomas Castellanos receiving his first collegiate start.
Castellanos is a solid runner, but he has not looked sharp as a passer. The freshman had a nice performance against outmatched Temple in garbage time, yet we saw the real Castellanos in the AAC Championship Game against Tulane. He went 2-8 for seven yards and was sacked twice by the Green Wave. Top receiver Ryan O’Keefe won’t take part in this game either after entering the transfer portal, hurting UCF’s big play ability.
Isaiah Boswer and R.J. Harvey will be the go-to backs in this game. Bowser has been the short yardage back, running for 760 yards (3.9 YPC) with 14 touchdowns, while Harvey is the more explosive option with 767 yards (6.8 YPC) and five touchdowns.
UCF ranked 41st in Defensive SP+ this season. The Knights won’t have starting linebacker Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste in this game as he is entering the transfer portal, and top cornerback Davonte Brown will be absent as well. This defense doesn’t create a lot of havoc plays with UCF ranking outside the top 100 nationally in both sack rate and interception rate.
Duke Blue Devils Betting Analysis
Whereas UCF will be without some real important players, Duke returns almost everyone of importance for the Military Bowl. Riley Leonard was a sharp dual-threat quarterback, completing 63.6% of his passes for 2,794 yards (7.7 YPA) with 20 touchdowns and six interceptions. Leonard is also the Blue Devils’ leading rusher with 636 yards (5.6 YPC) and 11 touchdowns.
Wide receivers Jalon Calhoun and Jordan Moore are the two players to watch in the passing game. Calhoun caught 56 passes for 811 yards and four touchdowns this year, while Moore hauled in 57 passes for 643 yards and five TDs. Sahmir Hagans is coming off a strong outing against Wake Forest in the season finale with eight receptions for 139 yards and two TDs. Jaquez Moore has been the most explosive running back (6.9 YPC), but Jordan Waters and Jaylen Coleman saw more carries.
Duke ranked 48th in Defensive SP+ on the year. The Blue Devils allowed just 23.1 PPG (32nd nationally), and they were excellent at stopping the run. Opponents averaged a scant 3.5 YPC against this front seven, so that does not bode well for run-heavy UCF. DeWayne Carter was fantastic up front with 5.5 sacks and three forced fumbles, and he was tied for the team lead in sacks with defensive back Brandon Johnson.
Kansas Jayhawks Betting Analysis
After a 5-0 start to the season, Kansas fell apart in mid-October. Starting quarterback Jalon Daniels went down with an injury in the narrow loss to TCU on College Gameday, and that kept the Jayhawks from being as dynamic on offense. While Jason Bean is a little better passer than Daniels, he wasn’t the same kind of running threat.
Daniels started the last two games for Kansas. During the season, he completed 65.7% of his passes for 1,470 yards (8.4 YPA) and threw 13 touchdown passes compared to just two interceptions. He was also the second-leading rusher on the Jayhawks, picking up 398 yards and six touchdowns on the ground while averaging 6.3 YPC.
Devin Neal ran for 1,061 yards (6.2 YPC) and nine touchdowns as the go-to back in this offense. Backup Daniel Hishaw Jr. was supposed to help carry the load, but he was injured in October and will not be available for this game either.
Leading receiver Lawrence Arnold is expected to play after suffering an injury in the season finale against Kansas State, and that’s good news considering Luke Grimm is the only other player with more than 30 receptions on the roster. Still, Kansas ranked 13th in Offensive SP+ as Leipold has been able to have a lot of success with this hybrid offense.
The Jayhawks do not have a good defense though. Kansas ranked 107th in Defensive SP+ and ranked outside the top 100 in most defensive categories. They allowed 36.0 PPG and 474.5 YPG in the regular season, so this game could turn into a shootout.
Sophomore Cobee Bryant was a First Team All-Big 12 selection though with eight passes defensed and three interceptions. Lonnie Phelps was a Second Team All-Big 12 selection and led the Jayhawks with seven sacks.
Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Analysis
K.J. Jefferson will be playing in this game, and that’s enormous for Arkansas. The Razorbacks don’t have their second- and third-string quarterbacks available due to injury and transfer, and four of the top six receivers during the regular season are either opting out or in the transfer portal.
Jefferson completed 68.3% of his passes for 2,361 yards (8.7 YPA) with 22 touchdowns and four interceptions in the regular season. Matt Landers (44 receptions, 780 yards, 7 TDs) and running back Raheim Sanders (28 receptions, 271 yards, 2 TDs) are the only two players on the roster with more than 10 receptions on the year.
Sanders was a Second Team All-SEC running back this season. He was one of the most explosive runners in the conference, picking up 1,426 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground while averaging 6.5 YPC.
His decision to take part in this bowl game is huge as the next leading rushers (A.J. Green - 4.2 YPC, Rashod Dubinion - 3.5 YPC) aren’t nearly as effective. First Team All-SEC center Ricky Stromberg decided to opt out of this game in order to focus on the NFL Draft.
Arkansas is ranked 64th in Defensive SP+. The Razorbacks allowed a whopping 6.3 yards per play this season, as SEC West opponents could do whatever they wanted on offense against this unit.
They are going to be without their best players in this bowl game as linebackers Drew Sanders and Bumper Pool are both opting out after finishing first and second on the team in tackles.
Both Sanders and Pool were All-SEC selections, and Sanders was excellent with 9.5 sacks. The secondary is in disarray right now too as Jalen Catalon is still injured and three other defensive backs hit the transfer portal.
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Analysis
After flirting with a few schools in the transfer portal, Drake Maye decided to return to Chapel Hill for another season with the North Carolina Tar Heels. Maye was a First Team All-ACC selection after completing 67.2% of his passes for 4,115 yards (8.5 YPA) with 35 touchdowns against seven interceptions in 2022. He was also the leading rusher for the Tar Heels with 653 yards (3.8 YPC) and seven touchdowns. Maye struggled over his last three starts though, completing under 60% of his passes with a touchdown and four picks in three consecutive losses for UNC.
Standout receiver Josh Downs will be unavailable after deciding to opt out in order to concentrate on the NFL Draft. Downs was a First Team All-ACC pick and had 94 receptions for 1,029 yards and 11 touchdowns. Antoine Green will look to take on more of a role after averaging 18.6 YPR with seven touchdown receptions, and tight ends Bryson Nesbit and Kamari Morales are threats on short yardage and in the red zone. Elijah Green and Omarion Hampton are averaging 4.5 YPC each as the top two running backs.
This North Carolina defense is ranked 106th in SP+. The Tar Heels rank outside the top 100 in interception rate and sack rate, so Bo Nix has the potential to explode on Wednesday night. This front seven took some hits to its depth with backups exiting via the transfer portal, but the real problem is in the secondary. Tony Grimes, Storm Duck, and Cam’Ron Kelly all saw a lot of action, and all three players entered the transfer portal.
Oregon Ducks Betting Analysis
To the surprise of some, Bo Nix announced that he will be playing in the Holiday Bowl and returning to Oregon for his final year of eligibility in 2023. Nix was a mediocre quarterback in three seasons at Auburn, but he was able to rejuvenate his career by moving out west. He completed 71.5% of his passes for 3,389 yards (8.9 YPA) with 27 touchdowns and six interceptions this season as his excellent offensive line gave him time and only allowed Nix to be sacked four times. Nix ended up being the third leading rusher on the Ducks too with 504 yards and 14 touchdowns.
Oregon ranked 5th in Offensive SP+ as the Ducks had a lot of success on the ground. Bucky Irving led the team with 906 yards (6.3 YPC) and three touchdowns, while Noah Whittington ran for 754 yards (5.9 YPC) and five TDs. Troy Franklin was the big play threat at receiver with 56 receptions for 867 yards and eight touchdowns, and Kris Hutson and Chase Cota are the underneath targets. T.J. Bass and Alex Forsyth were both First Team All-PAC 12 offensive linemen, and they are supposed to suit up for this game.
The Ducks have a middle-of-the-pack defense. They have really struggled to get after the quarterback without Kayvon Thibodeaux though, ranking 129th nationally in sack rate. To make matters worse, their top two defenders will be opting out of this game in order to focus on the NFL Draft. First Team All-PAC 12 cornerback Christian Gonzalez led the team with seven passes defensed and four interceptions, while Second Team All-PAC 12 linebacker Noah Sewell was a playmaker.
Texas Tech Red Raiders Betting Analysis
Three different players saw significant action under center for Texas Tech this season. Donovan Smith took the most snaps, but he decided to transfer to Houston earlier this month in order to learn under Dana Holgorsen.
Behren Morton has taken the second-most snaps, but he is dealing with an injury, so Tyler Shough is likely to get the start. Shough has seen a decent amount of action after transferring in from Oregon following the 2020 season. He completed 59.4% of his passes for 1,062 yards (7.7 YPA) with six touchdowns and three interceptions this year, so the offense is in good hands.
Jerand Bradley, Xavier White, and Myles Price are the three leading receivers for the Red Raiders. All three players had at least 40 receptions and 475 receiving yards, but Bradley was the deep threat and averaged 15.3 YPR with five touchdowns. SaRodorick Thompson and Tahj Brooks split the carries in the backfield, and Shough was the best runner of the quarterbacks.
Turnovers have been a problem for Texas Tech all year. The Red Raiders threw a combined 17 interceptions, and they rank 114th in giveaways. This defense ranked 87th in SP+. Texas Tech surrendered 5.8 yards per play and was subpar against both the run and the pass.
They had a probable first-round pick on this defense in linebacker Tyree Wilson, but he was injured late in the season and opted out of the bowl game. We could see some issues in the secondary too as safeties Kobee Minor and Reggie Pearson Jr. have entered the transfer portal and won’t be able to play on Wednesday night.
Mississippi Rebels Betting Analysis
Lane Kiffin is an offensive genius and made Ole Miss competitive even though it was a rebuilding year for the Rebels. They went 8-4 during the regular season despite losing a lot of starters from 2021 due to graduation, and this offense finished 19th in SP+.
USC transfer Jaxson Dart had a nice season in Kiffin’s system. Dart completed 62.6% of his passes for 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions, and he averaged 8.1 YPA. He was a better mobile threat than anyone expected either, running for 548 yards while averaging 4.7 YPC.
Star receiver Jonathan Mingo wasn’t at 100% for much of the season due to injury, but he still finished with 48 receptions for 808 yards and five touchdowns. Malik Heath led the Rebels with 52 catches for 834 yards and four touchdowns.
The star of this offense was freshman running back Quinshon Judkins. TCU transfer Zach Evans was supposed to be the No. 1 back in this offense and had a very nice season with 899 rushing yards (6.6 YPC) and eight touchdowns. However, Judkins showed that he was a special talent and took over the starting job in late September. The freshman was a First Team All-SEC pick with 1,476 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns.
Ole Miss ranked 42nd in Defensive SP+. The pass defense was decent, but they will be without rotation cornerback Miles Battle after he opted to enter the transfer portal. This team does not force a lot of turnovers with just seven interceptions, and they have had trouble with dual-threat signal callers throughout the season.
