CNOTES 2025-2026 FOOTBALL SCHEDULE + NEWS, NOTES BEST BETS !

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NFL BEST BETS !

09/21/2025.....................11 - 7 - 1...................61.11%..................+ 16.50
09/18/2025......................2 - 0 - 0..................100.00%..................+ 10.00
09/15/2025......................2 - 2 - 0....................50.00%..................- 1.00
09/14/2025.....................4 - 12 - 0..................25.00%...................- 40.50
09/11/2025......................0 - 2 - 0...................00.00%...................- 11.00
09/08/2025......................0 - 2 - 0...................00.00%...................- 11.00
09/07/2025......................8 - 7 - 0...................53.33%....................+ 1.50


TOTALS.........................27 -32 - 1...................45.76%....................- 35.50
 

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Monday’s 6-pack:
— Reds 1, Cubs 0- If the playoffs started today, Cincinnati would be in.
— Mariners 7, Astros 3- Seattle sweeps the Astros, leads AL West by 3 games.
— Twins 6, Guardians 2- Loss ends Cleveland’s 10-game winning streak.
— Rays 7, Red Sox 3- Boston/Cleveland are tied for AL’s last Wild Card slot.
— Blue Jays 8, Royals 5- Toronto clinches a spot in the playoffs.
— Marlins 4, Rangers 2- Marlins have won six games in a row.

Quote of the Day
“I loved it, and also their D-coordinator was the one that cut me in Carolina.”
Baker Mayfield, talking about Jets’ DC Steve Wilks

Monday’s quiz
Who is the Carolina Panthers’ all-time leader in passing yardage?

Sunday’s quiz
Hall of Famer Dick Vermeil is the only head coach who coached both the Eagles, Rams in a Super Bowl.

Saturday’s quiz
Of all the current major league ballplayers, Giancarlo Stanton has hit the most career home runs.

***************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……..

Browns 13, Packers 10
Browns kicked a 55-yard FG at the gun for the win.
Green Bay led 10-0 with 4:00 left in the game.
Cleveland’s first seven drives: 41 plays, 113 yards, no points
Cleveland’s last three drives: 18 plays, 83 yards, 13 points
Packers had 14 penalties for 75 yards, Browns 8 for 90.
Green Bay was 10-18 on third down, Cleveland 4-13.
Packers are 4-12-1 ATS last 17 games as a road favorite.
Total yardage: Green Bay 230, Cleveland 221.

Buccaneers 29, Jets 27
Jets took 27-26 lead, scoring TD on blocked FG with 1:49 left.
Tampa Bay kicked a 36-yard FG 0:03 left for the win.
Bucs are 3-0, with all three wins coming on last-minute scores.
Last time Tampa Bay was 3-0 was 2005.
Buccaneers led 23-6 after the third quarter.
Bucs outgained Jets 347-267; they were +2 in turnovers.
Tampa Bay survived 14 penalties for 124 yards.
Jets lost first three games, giving up 34-30-29 points.

Eagles 33, Rams 27
Rams led 26-7 early in the third quarter.
Rams had two FG’s blocked; the last one was run back for a TD.
Eagles in first half: 21 plays, 29 yards, 7 points
Eagles in second half: 40 plays, 260 yards, 20 points
Saquon Barkley was held to 55 yards on 22 touches.
AJ Brown caught six passes for 109 yards.
Eagles won ten of last eleven series games.
Rams were 4-6 on FG’s; need to be better in red zone.

Chargers 23, Broncos 20
Chargers kicked a 43-yard FG at the gun for the win.
Chargers had tied game on a 20-yard TD pass with 2:44 left.
Bolts have already beaten all three of their AFC West rivals.
Justin Herbert is the youngest QB ever with 2,000 career completions.
Chargers were 8-17 on third down, Denver 2-13.
Bolts ran 80 plays for 376 yards, Denver 48 plays for 265 yards.
Chargers are 7-2 SU/9-0 ATS last 9 games vs AFC West rivals.
Under Payton, Denver is 6-9 ATS as a road underdog.

Colts 41, Titans 20
Colts are off to a 3-0 start, scoring 32-29-41 points.
Colts have scored on 20 of 25 drives, have punted once.
Indianapolis led 20-6 at halftime.
Colts outgained first two opponents by 207-149-83 yards.
Rookie QB Ward threw a horrendous pick-6 on third play of game.
Titans have three TD’s, 10 FG’s on their 34 drives.
Tennessee is 3-11 ATS last 14 games as an underdog.
Indianapolis won/covered last five series games.

Jaguars 17, Texans 10
Jaguars drove 83 yards in 7 plays, scored winning TD with 1:48 left.
Just third win for Jaguars in last 15 games vs Houston.
Jaguars are 5-2 ATS in last seven AFC South home games.
Jaguars have had three takeaways in all three games this year.
Houston’s only TD was a 50-yard pass to Collins with 9:17 left.
Texans lost first three games, by 1-5-7 points.
Texans have only three TD’s on 30 drives this year.
Both teams converted 4-15 third down plays.

Steelers 21, Patriots 14
Steelers drove 67 yards in nine plays, scored GW TD with 2:16 left.
Steelers’ first two drives: 20 plays, 144 yards, 14 points
Steelers are 26-14-1 ATS last 41 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Pittsburgh ran ball 26 times for only 64 yards.
NE outgained Steelers 369-203, but had 5 turnovers, losing 4 fumbles.
Patriots are 4-13-1 ATS last 18 games as a home underdog.
NE is 9-18-3 ATS last 30 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Patriots had a drive that took 17 plays, 92 yards, but it ended in an INT.

Famous birthdays, September 22:
Harold Carmichael, 76
Jeffrey Leonard, 70
Wally Backman, 66
Scott Baio, 65
Vince Coleman, 64
Mark Guthrie, 60
Mike Matheny, 55
Alexei Ramírez, 44
Carlos Correa, 31
Jeremy Pena, 28

Vikings 48, Bengals 10
Vikings had defensive TD’s of 87-66 yards in the first half.
Minnesota outgained the Bengals, 352-171.
Will Reichard made a 62-yard FG, longest in Viking history.
QB Wentz has a 48-47-1 record; he’s won a game for 5 different teams. .
Cincinnati got outgained by 186-50-181 yards in their first 3 games.
Bengals have run ball 61 times for only 147 yards in those games.
Bengals’ first four drives: 17 plays, 20 yards, no points.
Cincinnati turned ball over five times on 13 drives.

Panthers 30, Falcons 0
Panthers scored on 11-yard pick-6 to go ahead 17-0 in 3rd quarter.
Ryan Fitzgerald made a 57-yard field goal for Carolina.
Panthers are 13-8-1 ATS last 22 games as a home underdog.
Carolina is 7-2-1 ATS in last ten NFC South home games.
Falcons missed FG’s (49-55 yards) on two of first three drives.
Under Morris, Atlanta is 3-6-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Morris, Atlanta is 5-11 ATS in games coming off a win.
Morris is 30-49 as a head coach.

Commanders 41, Raiders 24
Washington ran for 174 yards in 1st half, led 20-10 at half.
Under Quinn, Commanders are 8-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Last three years, Washington is 10-6 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Mariota was 15-21/207 yards passing in his first start since 2022.
Commanders ran a punt back 90 yards for a TD.
Raiders were 3-14 on third down, Las Vegas 5-10.
Raiders have run ball 71 times for only 217 yards.
Las Vegas is 19-25-1 ATS in last 45 games coming off a loss.

49ers 16, Cardinals 15
49ers kicked a 35-yard FG with 0:04 left for the win.
49ers drove 57 yards in 10 plays to set up the FG.
Cardinals took 15-13 lead on a safety with 3:26 left.
49ers led 6-3 at half; it was 6-6 after three quarters.
49ers outgained Arizona 355-260, but ran for only 73 yards.
Last 2+ years, 49ers are 7-12-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
Last two years, 49ers are 1-6 ATS in NFC West home games.
49ers are 3-0, took over first place in NFC West.

Seahawks 44, Saints 13
Seattle ran a punt back 95 yards for a TD in first quarter.
Seattle also blocked a punt later in the first quarter.
Seattle’s first seven drives: 39 plays, 283 yards, 37 points
Jason Myers kicked a 56-yard field goal for the Seahawks.
Saints have converted only 12-36 third down plays.
New Orleans has been outscored 71-23 in first half of games.
Spencer Rattler is 0-9 as an NFL starting QB.
Saints are 7-14 ATS in last 21 games coming off a loss.

Bears 31, Cowboys 14
Caleb Williams threw for 298 yards, four TD’s.
Williams hit Luther Burden with a 65-yard TD pass on a flea flicker.
Bears scored on four of first six drives, led 24-14 at halftime.
Chicago is 6-3-1 ATS last ten games as a home underdog.
Last two games, Cowboys allowed 422-298 passing yards.
Chicago was 8-14 on third down, Dallas 3-11.
Chicago averaged 10.6 yards/pass attempt.
Dallas is 4-7 ATS in last 11 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.

Chiefs 22, Giants 9
Chiefs were 3-4 on field goals, on five first half drives (led 9-6 at half)
Chiefs in second half: 29 plays, 184 yards, 13 points.
Chiefs were 8-15 on third down, Giants 1-10.
Chiefs are 8-4 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
Last 14 years, Giants are 2-12 SU/1-13 ATS in home openers.
Malik Nabers caught only two passes for 13 yards.
Giants in second half: 33 plays, 152 yards, 3 points.
QB Wilson is 130-88-1 as an NFL starter, 23-35 last 4+ years.
 

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NFL
Weather Report

Monday, September 22


F7SVXBF.png





NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 3

Lions
@ Ravens (-4.5)
Lions (1-1)
Lions lost 27-13 at Green Bay, squashed the Bears 52-21 LW.
Detroit is 22-11 ATS last 33 games coming off a win.
QB Goff is 86-58-1 as an NFL starter, 44-31-1 with Detroit.
Campbell is 47-38-1 as an NFL head coach.
Detroit has two new coordinators this season.
Lions are 13-9 ATS last 22 games as a road underdog.
Detroit is 13-7 ATS in last 20 games vs AFC teams


Ravens (1-1)
Ravens lost 41-40 in Buffalo, beat the Browns 41-17.
LW, Ravens scored 24 points on four 2nd half drives.
Last two years, Baltimore is 14-10 ATS coming off a win.
QB Jackson is 74-30 as an NFL starter
John Harbaugh is 186-116 as an NFL head coach.
Last 2+ years, Baltimore is 11-6 ATS as a home favorite.
Ravens are 10-5 ATS in last 15 games vs NFC teams.


Ravens are 5-0 SU/4-1 in last five series games.
Lions lost last three visits to Baltimore: 38-6/44-20/48-3.
 

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Monday, September 22

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
DET at BAL08:15 PMBAL -4.5
O 53.5
+500 +500
 

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Monday, Sep 22
8:15pm ET on ESPN
Jared Goff vs. Lamar Jackson
Logo
➤The Ravens own the longest active streak as a betting favorite, with this week's streak being up to 21 games. Their last game as an underdog came back in Week 1 of last season vs. the Chiefs.

➤In the last two regular seasons, the Ravens are 25-11 to their team total over, the best mark for any team in the NFL. If you just look at this year and last year, in Lamar Jackson’s 21 starts, the over in the full game is 16-5, the best mark of any QB in the NFL.

➤A good spot here for Baltimore…

At home in either the afternoon or night game window, Lamar Jackson is 15-3 SU and 11-7 ATS in his career.
At home in night games, John Harbaugh is 23-4 SU (15-12 ATS) as coach of the Ravens. In November or earlier, Harbaugh is 19-1 SU in this spot.
Lamar has played 26 total games vs. the NFC in his career, and he is 24-2 SU but just 13-12-1 ATS. Oddly enough, his two losses have come against the NFC East, while he is 3-0 SU vs. the NFC North.
On Monday Night Football, Lamar is 7-2 SU and has 22 passing TDs and 0 interceptions. Lamar has thrown 2+ pass TDs in 7 straight primetime games.

➤Lions throttled the Bears last week, winning by 31 points. Most spots would tell you time to fade Detroit, but under Dan Campbell, Detroit is 16-4 ATS in their game directly after winning by 11+ points in their previous game – foot on the pedal.

➤Jared Goff has made 37 starts at night in primetime in his pro career. He is 21-5 SU as a favorite and 3-8 SU as an underdog.

➤Ravens bring a juggernaut offense to the table against the Lions this week. Goff and Campbell have faced an opponent averaging 28+ PPG on the season 11 times. They started their tenure 7-0 SU, they are 1-3 SU since the beginning of last season, losing to the Commanders, Bills and Bucs.

➤Ravens put up 40+ points in both Weeks 1 and 2 – they join the Saints last year, Packers in 2020, Broncos in 2013, and Saints in 2009 to accomplish that in the Wild Card era.

➤The narrative behind Goff indoors and outdoors exists, but sometimes can be overblown. In Goff’s career, he has started nine outdoor games where his team closed +200 or higher on the moneyline, which is close to the line for Week 3 – Goff’s team is 0-8-1 SU in those games, losing by 15.7 PPG.
 

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System: Have to keep running this back. Extended rest unders.

Matches: BAL/DET

NFL Icon

$$: Under with both teams extended rest (SEASON)
the game was played during the 2025-26 or 2024-25 or 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 or 2019-20 or 2018-19 season
the away team's game number is between 2 and 100
the home team's game number is between 2 and 100
the game is played during the Postseason or Regular season
betting on the Under
the home team has had between 8 and 100 days off
the Visitor team has had between 8 and 100 days off
$3,583
WON
111-66-2
RECORD
63%
WIN%
 

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Detroit @ Baltimore -4.5, Total 52.5​

Ravens 26-4 SU in its last 30 non conference games

Lions 19-5 ATS in its last 24 games on the road

Ravens have won 5 straight vs Lions

Lions covered 7 straight Week 3 games

Lions 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games played on a Monday.

Lions 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as the underdog.

OVER is 16-5 Baltimore’s last 21 games.

OVER is 9-3 Baltimore’s last 12 games played on a Monday

Detroit is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games.

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games.

Detroit is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games.

Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against Bal


Despite all of that, it’s hard to suggest a play on the Ravens. For as good as Baltimore has been under John Harbaugh, the team is just 47-54-1 against the spread when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points with him on the sidelines. The Ravens are also just 61-64-2 ATS as home favorites in that span.
Also, some of the systems and trends supporting the Lions are out of control. One of the systems has an ROI of 35.0% since 2021, and it’s that underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that completed at least 64.0% of their passes last season are 41-17 against the spread in Weeks 1 to 3. On top of that, Detroit is 15-4 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points under Dan Campbell. The team is also 7-0 ATS when playing away from home after a game in which it rushed for 175 or more yards with Campbell on the sidelines. If you drop that to 150 or more and take the location out of the equation, the Lions are 9-0 ATS in their next game.
 

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NFL BEST BETS !

09/22/2025.......................1 - 1 - 0...................50.00%...................- 0.50
09/21/2025.....................11 - 7 - 1...................61.11%..................+ 16.50
09/18/2025......................2 - 0 - 0..................100.00%..................+ 10.00
09/15/2025......................2 - 2 - 0....................50.00%..................- 1.00
09/14/2025.....................4 - 12 - 0..................25.00%...................- 40.50
09/11/2025......................0 - 2 - 0...................00.00%...................- 11.00
09/08/2025......................0 - 2 - 0...................00.00%...................- 11.00
09/07/2025......................8 - 7 - 0...................53.33%....................+ 1.50


TOTALS.........................28 -33 - 1...................45.90%....................- 36.00
 

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Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Week 4 NFL spreads…….
— Seahawks @ Arizona (-1.5)
— Vikings (-3.5) vs Steelers (@ Dublin, Ireland)
— Chargers (-6.5) @ Giants
— Titans @ Houston (-6.5)
— Commanders (-2.5) @ Atlanta
— Saints @ Buffalo (-15.5)

Quote of the Day
“I’ve said it a million times to you guys — I don’t think I’ve obviously said it enough to our team — the goal is to go 1-0 every week. And it pisses me off when we start talking about things outside of the next game. Things that are way down the road. Like, focus on, keep the focus on the present, on the now, and worry about getting better each and every day.”
Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur

Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the Milwaukee Brewers, who has hit the most home runs?

Monday’s quiz
Cam Newton is the Carolina Panthers’ all-time leader in passing yardage.

Sunday’s quiz
Hall of Famer Dick Vermeil is the only head coach who coached both the Eagles, Rams in a Super Bowl.

*******************************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Trends for every MLB team……

Trends for every major league team
(thru Sunday’s games)

— Arizona (79-77)
Arizona is 7-4 its last eleven games.
Diamondbacks are 20-27 in one-run games.
Arizona is 25-21 vs NL West foes, 54-56 vs everyone else.
Arizona scored in 1st inning in 11 of last 16 home games.

— Braves (73-83)
Braves won their last eight games.
Atlanta is 36-39 at home, 37-44 on the road.
Braves are 28-21 vs NL East rivals, 45-62 vs everyone else.
Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.

— Cubs (88-68)
Chicago lost its last four games.
Cubs are holding #1 Wild Card slot in NL
Under is 13-5-2 in their last 20 road games.
Cubs are 69-46 vs righty starters, 19-22 vs lefties.

— Reds (80-76)
Cincinnati won its last five games.
Reds are 60-53 vs righty starters, 20-23 vs lefties.
Under is 8-3-1 in their last 11 road games.
Reds are holding the NL’s last Wild Card slot.

— Rockies (43-113)
Colorado lost 16 of its last 20 games.
Over is 6-2 in Rockies’ last eight games.
Rockies are 8-34 vs lefty starters, 35-79 vs righties.
Colorado scored a first inning run in only one of last 37 road games.

— Dodgers (88-68)
Dodgers won 10 of their last 14 games.
LA leads San Diego by three games in NL West.
Dodgers are 64-45 vs righty starters, 24-23 vs lefties.
Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games.

— Marlins (76-80)
Marlins are 10-1 in their last 11 games.
Miami is 36-42 at home, 40-38 on the road.
Over is 9-4 in Marlins’ last 13 games.
Marlins are 57-55 vs righty starters, 19-25 vs lefties.

— Brewers (95-61)
Brewers are 6-3 in their last nine games.
Milwaukee is 51-27 at home, 44-34 on the road.
Over is 17-7-1 in their last 25 home games.
Right now, Milwaukee is the #1 seed in the NL.

— Mets (80-76)
Mets are 4-11 in their last fifteen games.
Mets are 49-32 at home, 31-44 on the road.
Over is 8-5-1 in their last 14 road games.
Right now, Mets trail Cincinnati by half-game for last NL Wild Card slot.

— Phillies (92-64)
Phillies are 1-3 in their last four games.
Phillies are 70-39 vs righty starters, 22-25 vs lefties.
Over is 10-2 in their last 12 games.
Right now, Phillies are #2 seed in the NL.

— Pirates (67-89)
Pirates lost 12 of their last 15 games.
Pittsburgh is 44-37 at home, 23-52 on the road.
Under is 11-4 in their last 15 games.
Pirates are 53-69 vs righty starters, 14-20 vs lefties.

— St Louis (76-80)
St Louis is 4-8 in its last 12 games.
Cardinals are 1-5 in last six series openers.
St Louis is 44-37 at home, 32-43 on the road.
Under is 8-3 in their last eleven home games.

— Padres (85-71)
San Diego is 9-10 in its last 19 games.
Padres are 47-28 at home, 38-43 on the road.
Padres are 61-48 vs righty starters, 24-23 vs lefties.
San Diego has a 5-game for the #2 Wild Card slot in NL.

— Giants (77-79)
Giants lost eight of their last 11 games.
Giants are 61-51 vs righty pitchers, 16-28 vs lefties.
Over is 7-2 in their last nine home games.
SF is three games out of the NL’s last Wild Card slot.


— Washington (64-92)
Nationals are 4-8 in their last 12 games.
Washington is 47-64 vs righty starters, 17-28 vs lefties.
Under is 5-3-1 in their last nine games.
Nationals are 22-16 in one-run games.

Famous birthdays, September 23rd:
Bruce Springsteen, 76
Dennis Lamp, 73
Jason Alexander, 66
Larry Krystkowiak, 61
Pete Harnisch, 59
Cuonzo Martin, 54
Matt Kemp, 41
Brian Brohm, 40

— Orioles (73-83)
Baltimore is 12-7 in its last 19 games.
Orioles are 52-58 vs vs righty starters, 21-25 vs lefties.
Under is 15-0 in their last fifteen home games.
Orioles are 20-26 vs AL East rivals, 53-57 vs everyone else.

— Red Sox (85-71)
Red Sox are 4-6 in their last ten games.
Boston is 46-32 at home, 39-39 on road.
Over is 3-0 in their last three games.
Red Sox have #2 AL Wild Card slot, one game ahead of Cleveland/Houston.

— White Sox (58-98)
Chicago lost eight of its last eleven games.
White Sox are 33-48 at home, 25-50 on the road.
Under is 8-2 in their last ten games.
Chicago is 43-77 vs righty starters, 15-21 vs lefties.

— Cleveland (84-72)
Cleveland is 14-2 in its last 16 games.
Guardians are tied with Astros for AL’s last Wild Card slot.
Guardians are also game behind Detroit in AL Central.
Guardians are 66-48 vs righty starters, 18-24 vs lefties.
Under is 16-3 in their last nineteen games.

— Detroit (85-71)
Detroit is 7-18 in its last 25 games.
Tigers lead Cleveland by one game in AL Central.
Over is 12-6 in their last eighteen games.
Detroit is 20-10 in one-run games.

— Houston (84-72)
Astros are tied for last Wild Card slot in AL.
Astros are 14-21 in their last 35 home games.
Astros trail Seattle by three games in AL West.
Over is 8-2 in their last ten home games.

— Royals (78-78)
Royals are 14-17 in their last 31 games.
Kansas City is 61-66 vs righty starters, 17-12 vs lefties.
Over is 7-2 in Royals’ last nine games.
Royals scored in first inning in 15 of last 28 home games.

— Angels (70-86)
Angels are 11-24 in their last 35 games.
Over is 10-6 in their last sixteen games.
Angels are 59-70 vs righty starters, 11-16 vs lefties.
Angels are in last place in AL West ($206M payroll)

— Twins (67-89)
Twins lost 26 of their last 38 games.
Minnesota is 38-43 at home, 29-46 on the road.
Over is 16-6 in their last 22 home games.
Twins are 2-10 in last 12 games where winning run scored from 7th inning on.

— New York (88-68)
New York is 8-3 in its last 11 games.
Under is 4-0 in their last four games.
New York is 71-51 vs righty starters, 17-17 vs lefties.
Right now, New York has the #1 Wild Card slot in AL.

— A’s (73-83)
A’s are 7-3 in their last ten games.
A’s didn’t score in their last two games.
A’s are 55-68 vs righty starters, 18-15 vs lefties.
A’s are 9-5 in extra innings this season.

— Seattle (87-69)
Mariners won 14 of their last 15 games.
Seattle is 33-10 in its last 43 home games.
Over is 13-6 in their last nineteen games.
Seattle leads Houston by three games in AL West.

— Tampa Bay (76-80)
Tampa Bay is 4-7 in its last 11 games.
Rays are 41-40 at home, 35-40 on the road.
Over is 5-2 in their last seven road games.
Rays are 7-15 in last 22 games where winning run scored from 7th inning on.

— Texas (79-77)
Rangers lost their last seven games.
Texas is five games out of the AL’s last Wild Card slot.
Texas is 62-55 vs righty starters, 17-22 vs lefties
Rangers are 47-31 at home, 32-46 on road.

— Toronto (90-66)
Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last five games.
Blue Jays scored total of 11 runs in those five games.
Under is 11-5 in their last 16 games.
Toronto leads New York by two games in AL East.
 

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NFL

Week 4


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, September 25
8:15 PM ET
Seattle VS Arizona
Seattle is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 9 games.
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
Seattle is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games against Arizona.
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 12 games against Seattle.
Arizona is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home.
Arizona is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Seattle.

Sunday, September 28
9:30 AM ET
Minnesota VS Pittsburgh
Minnesota is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games.
Minnesota is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games.
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games against Pittsburgh.
Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road.
Pittsburgh is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games.
Pittsburgh is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games against Minnesota.

1:00 PM ET
Tennessee VS Houston
Tennessee is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games.
Tennessee is 0-9 SU in its last 9 games.
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against Houston.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games.
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games against Tennessee.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games at home.

1:00 PM ET
Washington VS Atlanta
Washington is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games.
Washington is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games.
Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games against Atlanta.
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games against Atlanta.
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 12 games.
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games at home.

1:00 PM ET
New Orleans VS Buffalo
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans' last 9 games.
New Orleans is 0-7 SU in its last 7 games.
New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against Buffalo.
Buffalo is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games.
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games against New Orleans.

1:00 PM ET
Carolina VS New England
Carolina is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games.
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Carolina's last 18 games.
Carolina is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games.
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against New England.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 10 games.
New England is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games.
New England is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games at home.
New England is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference conference.

1:00 PM ET
Los Angeles VS New York
LA Chargers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Chargers' last 8 games.
LA Chargers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games.
LA Chargers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games against NY Giants.
NY Giants is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants' last 6 games.
NY Giants is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Giants' last 7 games against LA Chargers.

1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia VS Tampa Bay
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games.
Philadelphia is 9-0 SU in its last 9 games.
Philadelphia is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games against Tampa Bay.
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Tampa Bay's last 18 games.
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games against Philadelphia.
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home.

4:05 PM ET
Indianapolis VS Los Angeles
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis' last 6 games.
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
Indianapolis is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games against LA Rams.
LA Rams is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams' last 6 games.
LA Rams is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Rams' last 7 games against Indianapolis.

4:05 PM ET
Jacksonville VS San Francisco
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 9 games.
Jacksonville is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games.
Jacksonville is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games against San Francisco.
San Francisco is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games against Jacksonville.
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home.

4:25 PM ET
Chicago VS Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games.
Chicago is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games.
Chicago is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games against Las Vegas.
Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games against Las Vegas.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Las Vegas' last 9 games.
Las Vegas is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games.
Las Vegas is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home.
Las Vegas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago.

8:20 PM ET
Green Bay VS Dallas
Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games.
Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games.
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games against Dallas.
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas' last 5 games against Green Bay.
Dallas is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas' last 7 games when playing at home against Green Bay.

Monday, September 29
7:15 PM ET
New York VS Miami
The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Jets' last 10 games.
NY Jets is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games.
NY Jets is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games against Miami.
NY Jets is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games against Miami.
Miami is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games.
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games against NY Jets.

8:15 PM ET
Cincinnati VS Denver
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Cincinnati's last 13 games.
Cincinnati is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games.
Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games against Denver.
Cincinnati is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games against Denver.
Denver is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games.
Denver is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games.
Denver is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games at home.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 

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Armadillo's Write-up

Week 4

Thursday’s game
Seahawks
(–1.5) @ Cardinals
Seahawks (2-1)
Seahawks won last two games, scoring 31-44 points.
LW, Seattle ran punt back for TD, also blocked a punt.
Seattle is 1-3-2 ATS in last six games as a road favorite.
Darnold is 37-40 as an NFL starter.
Seahawks are his 4th team the last four years.
MacDonald is 12-8 as a head coach.
Since 2020, Seattle is 16-22-3 ATS in games coming off a win.
Seahawks are 7-5 ATS last 12 NFC West road games.
Seattle is 12-14-2 ATS in last 28 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.


Cardinals (2-1)
Cardinals lost 16-15 at gun to the 49ers last week.
Last two games, Cardinals converted only 8-24 third down plays.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 7-4 ATS as a home underdog.
Murray is 38-47-1 as an NFL starter.
Gannon is 14-23 in 2+ years as a head coach.
Since 2019, Arizona is 6-12 ATS in NFC West home games.
Arizona is 21-13 ATS in last 34 games coming off a win.
Arizona is 13-10 ATS in last 23 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.


Seattle won last six series games (5-1 ATS).
Seahawks are 7-1 SU/4-3-1 ATS in last eight visits to Arizona.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
 

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Wednesday’s 6-pack:
NBA players with the all-time best plus-minus differentials:
+9,509— Tim Duncan
+9,208— Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
+8,263— Tony Parker
+7,298— Manu Ginobili
+6,714— Bill Russell
+6,679— Scottie Pippen

Quote of the Day
“It’s baseball. If they were asking us to do calculus, I’d be scared to death….…as long as this stays baseball, let’s go see if we are good enough.”
Reds’ manager Terry Francona

Wednesday’s quiz
Right now, which college football team has the longest active winning streak?

Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the Milwaukee Brewers, Ryan Braun has hit the most home runs.

Monday’s quiz
Cam Newton is the Carolina Panthers’ all-time leader in passing yardage.

***************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……..

— Guardians 5, Tigers 2
Teams are now tied for first in AL Central.
On July 8, Detroit was 15.5 games ahead of Cleveland.
Detroit hitters struck out 19 times in this game.

— Mets 9, Cubs 7
Cubs led this game 6-1 after four innings.
Francisco Alvarez hit the game-winning HR in the 8th inning.
Mets regain the NL’s last Wild Card slot, by a game over Reds/Arizona.

— Pirates 4, Reds 2
Oneil Cruz hit a two-run homer for Pittsburgh.
Pirates scored all four of their runs in the 2nd inning.
Reds have won five straight games four times this year, but are now 0-4 in that sixth game.

— Diamondbacks 5, Dodgers 4
Dodgers led 4-0 in the 7th inning.
Geraldo Perdomo’s 2-run single was a walk-off in the 9th.
Shohei Ohtani allowed 5 baserunners in his six scoreless IP.

— Red Sox 4, Blue Jays 1
Toronto has lost five of six games; their AL East lead is one game.
Tied 1-1 after five innings, Boston scored 3 runs in the sixth.
Red Sox lead Detroit by a game for the AL’s #2 Wild Card slot.

— Mariners 4, Rockies 3
Josh Naylor hit a 3-run double in the bottom of the 8th.
Mariners clinched a playoff spot; they’re 15-1 in their last 16 games.
Right now, Seattle would be the #2-seed in the AL.

— A’s 5, Astros 1
A’s first run scored when an easy pop-up fell safely in front of the mound.
Jeffrey Springs allowed three hits in his five IP.
Houston is a game behind Detroit for the AL’s last Wild Card slot.

— Major League Baseball will have a replay challenge system for balls/strikes, starting next season; this will be very interesting to follow.
The rules, according to MLB:
Each team will get two challenges and can keep them if they’re successful
Challenges can only be initiated by a pitcher, catcher, or batter, and the request must come right after the pitch
To signal a challenge, the pitcher, catcher, or batter will tap his hat or helmet to let the umpire know
No help from the dugout or other players on the field is allowed

Famous birthdays, September 24th:
Joe Greene, 79
Gordon Clapp, 77
Hubie Brooks, 69
Rafael Palmeiro, 61
Kevin Millar, 54
Eddie George, 52
Drew Gooden, 44
Keith Null, 40
Luis Morales, 23

Lions 38, Ravens 30
Detroit ran ball for 224 yards, outgained Ravens 426-318.
Montgomery had 12 carries for 151 yards.
Lions in second half: 28 plays, 221 yards, 24 points.
Detroit converted 7-14 on third down, 3-3 on fourth down
Score was tied 14-14 at halftime.
Ravens have scored 40-41-30 points, but are 1-2.
Baltimore allowed 41-38 points in its two losses.
In Week 3, favorites were 9-7 ATS; over was 8-8.

— New Jersey Giants are starting rookie QB Jaxson Dart against the Chargers this week, which will be his first NFL start.
Likely reason: Russell Wilson’s stats in the red zone so far:
4-for-18 passing, 16 yards, no TD’s, one first down. Not good.

— 0-3 Tennessee Titans are changing playcallers; QB coach Bo Hardegree is taking over for head coach Brian Callahan. Hardegree was the interim offensive coordinator for the Raiders for the second half of the 2023 season.

— Tampa Bay Bucs’ star WR Mike Evans is expected to miss 3-4 weeks (hamstring strain).

— Since 1939, only one NFL team has had a three-game span with:
No turnovers
Zero or one punt.
The 2025 Indianapolis Colts, off to a 3-0 start.

— Syracuse QB Steve Angeli tore his Achilles tendon, is out for the year; he was 98-156/1,352 passing in Syracuse’s 3-1 start.

— Oklahoma QB John Mateer hurt his thumb last week, is going to have surgery on Wednesday and is expected to miss 3+ weeks. So far this season, Mateer is 95-141/1,215 passing in the Sooners’ 4-0 start.
 

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Messages
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Wednesday’s 6-pack:
NBA players with the all-time best plus-minus differentials:
+9,509— Tim Duncan
+9,208— Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
+8,263— Tony Parker
+7,298— Manu Ginobili
+6,714— Bill Russell
+6,679— Scottie Pippen

Quote of the Day
“It’s baseball. If they were asking us to do calculus, I’d be scared to death….…as long as this stays baseball, let’s go see if we are good enough.”
Reds’ manager Terry Francona

Wednesday’s quiz
Right now, which college football team has the longest active winning streak?

Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the Milwaukee Brewers, Ryan Braun has hit the most home runs.

Monday’s quiz
Cam Newton is the Carolina Panthers’ all-time leader in passing yardage.

***************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……..

— Guardians 5, Tigers 2
Teams are now tied for first in AL Central.
On July 8, Detroit was 15.5 games ahead of Cleveland.
Detroit hitters struck out 19 times in this game.

— Mets 9, Cubs 7
Cubs led this game 6-1 after four innings.
Francisco Alvarez hit the game-winning HR in the 8th inning.
Mets regain the NL’s last Wild Card slot, by a game over Reds/Arizona.

— Pirates 4, Reds 2
Oneil Cruz hit a two-run homer for Pittsburgh.
Pirates scored all four of their runs in the 2nd inning.
Reds have won five straight games four times this year, but are now 0-4 in that sixth game.

— Diamondbacks 5, Dodgers 4
Dodgers led 4-0 in the 7th inning.
Geraldo Perdomo’s 2-run single was a walk-off in the 9th.
Shohei Ohtani allowed 5 baserunners in his six scoreless IP.

— Red Sox 4, Blue Jays 1
Toronto has lost five of six games; their AL East lead is one game.
Tied 1-1 after five innings, Boston scored 3 runs in the sixth.
Red Sox lead Detroit by a game for the AL’s #2 Wild Card slot.

— Mariners 4, Rockies 3
Josh Naylor hit a 3-run double in the bottom of the 8th.
Mariners clinched a playoff spot; they’re 15-1 in their last 16 games.
Right now, Seattle would be the #2-seed in the AL.

— A’s 5, Astros 1
A’s first run scored when an easy pop-up fell safely in front of the mound.
Jeffrey Springs allowed three hits in his five IP.
Houston is a game behind Detroit for the AL’s last Wild Card slot.

— Major League Baseball will have a replay challenge system for balls/strikes, starting next season; this will be very interesting to follow.
The rules, according to MLB:
Each team will get two challenges and can keep them if they’re successful
Challenges can only be initiated by a pitcher, catcher, or batter, and the request must come right after the pitch
To signal a challenge, the pitcher, catcher, or batter will tap his hat or helmet to let the umpire know
No help from the dugout or other players on the field is allowed

Famous birthdays, September 24th:
Joe Greene, 79
Gordon Clapp, 77
Hubie Brooks, 69
Rafael Palmeiro, 61
Kevin Millar, 54
Eddie George, 52
Drew Gooden, 44
Keith Null, 40
Luis Morales, 23

Lions 38, Ravens 30
Detroit ran ball for 224 yards, outgained Ravens 426-318.
Montgomery had 12 carries for 151 yards.
Lions in second half: 28 plays, 221 yards, 24 points.
Detroit converted 7-14 on third down, 3-3 on fourth down
Score was tied 14-14 at halftime.
Ravens have scored 40-41-30 points, but are 1-2.
Baltimore allowed 41-38 points in its two losses.
In Week 3, favorites were 9-7 ATS; over was 8-8.

— New Jersey Giants are starting rookie QB Jaxson Dart against the Chargers this week, which will be his first NFL start.
Likely reason: Russell Wilson’s stats in the red zone so far:
4-for-18 passing, 16 yards, no TD’s, one first down. Not good.

— 0-3 Tennessee Titans are changing playcallers; QB coach Bo Hardegree is taking over for head coach Brian Callahan. Hardegree was the interim offensive coordinator for the Raiders for the second half of the 2023 season.

— Tampa Bay Bucs’ star WR Mike Evans is expected to miss 3-4 weeks (hamstring strain).

— Since 1939, only one NFL team has had a three-game span with:
No turnovers
Zero or one punt.
The 2025 Indianapolis Colts, off to a 3-0 start.

— Syracuse QB Steve Angeli tore his Achilles tendon, is out for the year; he was 98-156/1,352 passing in Syracuse’s 3-1 start.

— Oklahoma QB John Mateer hurt his thumb last week, is going to have surgery on Wednesday and is expected to miss 3+ weeks. So far this season, Mateer is 95-141/1,215 passing in the Sooners’ 4-0 start.
 

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Thursday’s 7-pack:
Last seven NFL QB’s who started in Week 1 of their rookie season
— Cam Ward, Titans
— Caleb Williams, Bears
— Jayden Daniels, Commanders
— Bo Nix, Broncos
— Bryce Young, Panthers
— CJ Stroud, Texans
— Anthony Richardson, Colts

Quote of the Day
“I believe the only way to protect my own rights is to protect the rights of others.”
Dwight Eisenhower, 1953

Thursday’s quiz
First time the Seattle Seahawks played in a Super Bowl, who was their QB?

Wednesday’s quiz
Right now, Memphis Tigers have the longest active winning streak in college football- they’ve won their last eight games.

Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the Milwaukee Brewers, Ryan Braun has hit the most home runs.

****************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….

— Guardians 5, Tigers 1
George Valera had the go-ahead home run for Cleveland.
Guardians now lead AL Central by a game, with four games left.
Detroit has lost 8 in a row, is out of first place for first time since April 22.

— A’s 6, Astros 0
Shea Langeliers went 4-for-4 with a home run.
Luis Severino got 19 outs, allowed only three hits.
Astros have lost 5 in a row, trail Detroit by a game for last Wild Card slot.

— Cubs 10, Mets 3
Cubs scored 5 runs in third inning, snapped a five-game losing skid.
Matthew Boyd got 16 outs, allowed only two hits.
Juan Soto hit his 43rd home run for the Mets

— Pirates 4, Reds 3 (11)
Spencer Horwitz had the game-winning double for Pittsburgh.
Reds remain a game behind the Mets for the last NL’s Wild Card slot.
Noelvi Marte hit an inside-the-park home run for the Reds.

— Mariners 9, Rockies 2
Seattle clinches its first AL West title since 2001.
Cal Raleigh hit two home runs, now has 60 this season.
Luis Castillo got 22 outs, allowed only one baserunner.

— Red Sox 7, Blue Jays 1
Garrett Crochet tossed 8 shutout innings.
Red Sox lead Detroit by two games for the AL’s second Wild Card.
Toronto/New York are now tied for first in AL East.

Famous birthdays, September 25th:
Michael Douglas, 81
Bob McAdoo, 74
Glenn Hubbard, 68
Geno Petralli, 66
Heather Locklear, 64
Scottie Pippen, 60
Will Smith, 56
Catherine Zeta-Jones, 55
Matt Hasselbeck, 50
Rocco Baldelli, 44
Alec Ogletree, 34
Brandin Cooks, 32

— College football conference trends:
Home favorites in conference games are 12-10 ATS
Home underdogs in conference games are 11-7 ATS

American
Home underdogs 1-5 ATS in non-conference games
Road underdogs 8-4 ATS in non-conference games

ACC
Home favorites 6-10 ATS in non-conference games
Road underdogs 1-5 ATS in non-conference games

Big 10
Favorites 14-16 ATS in non-conference games

Big X
Favorites 13-9 ATS in non-conference games
Underdogs 3-4 ATS in non-conference games

Conference USA
14-9 ATS in non-conference games, 6-3 at home.

Mid American
Underdogs 18-15 ATS in non-conference games

Mountain West
Underdogs 12-6 ATS in non-conference games

SEC
19-16 ATS in non-conference games, 4-2 as underdogs

Sun Belt
Underdogs 10-13 ATS in non-conference games

— Tampa Bay Rays were sold for $1.7B this week, are expected to stay in the Tampa/St Pete area of western Florida. Stuart Sternberg had owned the team since 2004; back then, he bought the team for $200M, so a tidy profit right there.

— Was watching the Brewers-Padres game Monday night; Roberto Ortiz was the home plate umpire and boy, did the Milwaukee TV guys shred his performance.
Don’t think I’ve ever heard TV guys rip an umpire like that, especially considering that the Brewers are already locked in to a really good seed in the playoffs, not like it was a huge game for them, but hitters/pitchers looked confused by several of his calls.

— Auburn basketball coach Bruce Pearl stepped down this week; he takes an ambassador’s role in the athletic department, while his son Steven Pearl got a 5-year contract to take over for his father.
He went 246-125 at Auburn, leading the Tigers to two Final Fours.

— Oklahoma State fired longtime football coach Mike Gundy, who was 170-90 in 21 years coaching the Cowboys, 12-6 in bowl games. He gets paid $15M to go away; would like to hear him on TV, think he’d be an interesting voice in today’s NIL-dominated world.

— Atlanta Falcons fired their WR coach Ike Hilliard after Sunday’s 30-0 loss at Carolina; Passing game coordinator T.J. Yates is going to take over Hilliard’s duties, and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson will be on the sideline during games, instead of in the press box.

— Playoff picture with 4 days left in the regular season:
NL: Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers. Wild Cards: Cubs, Padres, Mets
AL: Blue Jays, Guardians, Mariners. Wild Cards: New York, Red Sox, Tigers
 

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Thursday, September 25


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NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 4

Thursday’s game
Seahawks
(–1.5) @ Cardinals
Seahawks (2-1)
Seahawks won last two games, scoring 31-44 points.
LW, Seattle ran punt back for TD, also blocked a punt.
Darnold is 37-40 as an NFL starter.
Seahawks are his 4th team the last four years.
MacDonald is 12-8 as a head coach.


Seattle is 1-3-2 ATS in last six games as a road favorite.
Since 2020, Seattle is 16-22-3 ATS in games coming off a win.
Seahawks are 7-5 ATS last 12 NFC West road games.
Seattle is 12-14-2 ATS in last 28 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.


Cardinals (2-1)
Cardinals lost 16-15 at gun to the 49ers last week.
Last two games, Cardinals converted only 8-24 third down plays.
Murray is 38-47-1 as an NFL starter.
Gannon is 14-23 in 2+ years as a head coach.


Under Gannon, Arizona is 7-4 ATS as a home underdog.
Since 2019, Arizona is 6-12 ATS in NFC West home games.
Arizona is 21-13 ATS in last 34 games coming off a win.
Arizona is 13-10 ATS in last 23 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.


Seattle won last six series games (5-1 ATS).
Seahawks are 7-1 SU/4-3-1 ATS in last eight visits to Arizona.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
NFL-wide, home teams are 8-11 ATS in divisional games.
 

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Messages
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Seahawks vs. Cardinals: Three must-know storylines for Thursday's Week 4 prime-time game

  • WHERE: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.)
  • WHEN: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • WAYS TO WATCH: Prime Video, NFL+
The Cardinals and Seahawks will meet in a key early-season divisional matchup on Thursday at State Farm Stadium. Each team enters Week 4 in at 2-1, even if they appear to be approaching via different vectors.
After dropping a close one in Week 1, the Seahawks impressively beat the Steelers and Saints by multiple scores, thanks to an improving offense and terrific special teams. Arizona, meanwhile, was fortunate to win its first two games and couldn’t protect a late lead this past Sunday at San Francisco.
Seattle is going for its eighth straight win over the Cardinals. The Seahawks have beaten the Cardinals four straight times in Glendale, Ariz., with Arizona last beating them at home in 2020.
The loser will fall to 0-2 in the NFC West. According to NFL Research, only 18 out of the 187 teams that started 0-2 in division games made the playoffs (9.6%) since division realignment in 2002.

Three must-know storylines

1) Darnold coming on, but Seahawks' run game remains limited

It might be too soon to say the Seahawks have a top-10 offense, but that unit is trending in the right direction. Sam Darnold has been mostly good through three games in Seattle, completing 70.3% of his passes (sixth-best in the NFL), averaging a career-best 9.0 yards per attempt and taking only three sacks. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has assumed the lead receiving role, Cooper Kupp has been solid and rookie WR Tory Horton is making a case for more chances, with three TDs in three games. Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet have combined for 15 first downs and four TDs, even if the run game hasn't been phenomenal yet. Darnold hasn't scrambled much, and the Seahawks have yet to weaponize rookie QB Jalen Milroe as a runner, so perhaps we might see some of that on Thursday. The Cardinals have mostly done a good job defending opponents' ground games, and they've allowed only one first-half TD total this season, but defending the pass is a growing concern. They're neither supplying enough pressure nor making enough plays against the pass.

Related Links

2) Cardinals offense stuck in neutral, must find answers post-Conner
As if Sunday's late loss to the Niners wasn't painful enough, the news that James Conner would be done for the season due to a foot injuyr might have hurt more. Trey Benson will hop into the lead role now, averaging 5.0 yards per rush in his career, but Benson has never had more than 13 touches in an NFL game. He's going to need help, and run blocking must be better. Left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. and his backup, Kelvin Beachum, are both injury questions for Thursday. But it's not just the run game that needs fixing. Kyler Murray hasn't been bad, but the passing-game limitations have been glaring. There were three critical dropped passes in the second half vs. the 49ers. Trey McBride has been good but is below his 2024 production rate. Surprisingly, so is Marvin Harrison Jr., who was guilty of a bad drop on Sunday and hasn't had more than six targets in a game this season. No other receiver or tight end has more than four receptions in 2025, and the Cardinals have only two TD passes in their past 10 quarters. Jonathan Gannon has defended play caller Drew Petzing, but the Cardinals have to show more offensively going forward.

3) Seahawks defense becoming a top-tier unit
You might be surprised to realize that Seattle is allowing the second-fewest points per game (15.7) through three weeks, allowing 18 or fewer in all three games. The biggest issue has been in the secondary, having played the past two games without Pro Bowl cornerback Devon Witherspoon (knee) and rookie defensive back Nick Emmanwori (ankle). Julian Love (hamstring) also was hurt in Week 3, although Derion Kendrick, who replaced Witherspoon on Sunday, had two interceptions. It's not clear who among those three will be available on Thursday at Arizona, but the Seahawks have made do without each of them. The run defense ranks third at 3.2 yards per attempt. The Seahawks are also generating the fourth-best QB pressure rate at 44.3 percent, despite blitzing at the second-lowest rate in the NFL (17.2 percent). One big reason has been the play of Byron Murphy II, who leads all NFL defensive tackles with 13 pressures. He's not been double-teamed as often this season and is wreaking more havoc inside.

Seahawks' Week 4 injury report

PlayerGame statusMon. practiceTues. practiceWed. practice
Elijah Arroyo, TE (groin)---LPLPFP
Zach Charbonnet, RB (foot)QUESTIONABLEFPFPFP
Nick Emmanwori, S (ankle)DOUBTFULLPLPFP
Ernest Jones, LB (shoulder)---FPFPFP
Josh Jones, G/T (ankle)OUTDNPDNPDNP
Julian Love, S (hamstring)---LPLPFP
Boye Mafe, LB (toe)QUESTIONABLELPLPFP
Robbie Ouzts, FB (ankle)DNPDNPIR
Jalen Sundell, C (ankle/elbow)---LPLPFP
Leonard Williams, DE (elbow/shoulder)---LPLPFP
Devon Witherspoon, CB (knee)---LPLPFP
Anthony Bradford, G (back)QUESTIONABLE------LP

Cardinals' Week 4 injury report

PlayerGame statusMon. practiceTues. practiceWed. practice
Kelvin Beachum, OT (knee/rest)QUESTIONABLEDNPDNPLP
Evan Brown, G (ankle)QUESTIONABLELPLPLP
James Conner, RB (foot)DNPIR
Akeem Davis-Gaither, LB (elbow)QUESTIONABLELPLPLP
Darren Hall, CB (ankle)QUESTIONABLELPLPLP
Will Hernandez, G (knee)QUESTIONABLELPLPLP
Paris Johnson, OT (knee)QUESTIONABLELPLPLP
Will Johnson, CB (groin)DOUBTFULDNPDNPDNP
Zay Jones, WR (concussion)OUTDNPDNPDNP
 

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Thursday, Sep 25
8:20pm ET on Amazon
Sam Darnold vs. Kyler Murray
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➤Seahawks have dominated the Cardinals over the last few years, going 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS since the calendar turned to 2022. In terms of Kyler Murray, he is 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in his career against the Seahawks, with his last SU win coming all the way back in 2020.

➤Early on, this is going to be a race to see who can survive the longest. When looking at first half against the spread marks when teams are on short rest, Sam Darnold is 3-7 1H ATS in his career – although his team is averaging 18.3 PPG in the 1H in this spot since 2022 – and Kyler Murray is 2-9 1H ATS in that spot.

➤Against the NFC West, Kyler Murray is unfathomable 6-24 against the first half spread, including 1-14 1H ATS vs. NFC West in his last 15 starts. Of 245 QBs since 2005, Kyler’s 6-24 1H ATS is the worst for any QB – 2nd-worst is Tony Romo at 17-31 1H ATS.

➤A 49er effect? The Cardinals have lost five consecutive games outright in their game directly after facing the 49ers, including going 4-18 SU in that spot since 2012. Kyler Murray himself is 2-6 SU after Arizona faces San Francisco.

➤A Minnesota thing? Sam Darnold has started seven career games after being a 6+ pt favorite in his previous start. With the Vikings, he went 5-0 SU in this spot. Prior to that, he went 0-2 SU.

➤The road at night hasn’t been an easy spot for Seattle. Dating back to 2018, they are 4-10 SU and 5-9 ATS on the road in primetime. After beating the Bears on the road at night in Week 17 last year, this would be their first consecutive wins in this spot since 2017 if they get the victory.

➤Kyler Murray and Trevor Lawrence entered this season 15-17 SU and 10-11 SU respectively as favorites in their careers – they are both 2-0 SU as favorites so far this season. With a loss Thursday, here is the list Kyler will be on:

Most QB Starts as Favorite, Under .500 as Fav. Career
Michael Vick, 21-22 SU (43 games)
Robert Griffin, 7-8 SU (15 games)
Chad Henne, 5-8 SU (13 games)

➤The Kyler Murray home vs. road splits when it comes to totals are drastic. When he starts on the road, the under is 28-13-1 (68%), 2nd-best mark of 279 QBs since 2003. When he starts at home, the ver is 26-18, the 4th-best mark of 120 QBs since he was drafted.

➤As starter for the Cardinals, Kyler Murray is 8-22 SU against the NFC West, including 3-10 SU since 2022. Kyler has never finished a season above .500 SU vs. his own division. Since his 1st start, a $100 bettor would be down $842, 2nd-worst mark of 116 QBs, ahead of just Justin Fields.

➤Unlike against the Saints, the Seahawks might need a better Cooper Kupp against the Cardinals this week.

Kupp’s Pct of Routes with a Positive Separation Score (Fantasy Pts, min. 300 routes)
2025: 13%
2024: 14.6%
2023: 16.5%
2022: 28.4%

➤The Seahawks, Vikings and Panthers all won by 30 pts or more in Week 3. In a teams first 7 games of the regular season, teams are 36-57-3 ATS (39%) the game after winning by 30 pts or more since 2003.
 

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THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

· There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 27-22 SU but 16-31-2 ATS (34%) in the last 49. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 44-27 SU and 42-26-3 ATS (61.8%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+1.5 vs SEA)

· Home underdogs on TNF have really struggled of late, going 6-21 SU and 10-17 ATS (37%) in their last 27, scoring just 15.1 PPG. In terms of totals, 17 of the last 25 (68%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under.
System Match (FADE):
ARIZONA (+1.5 vs SEA)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-ARI (o/u at 43.5)

· Unfortunately, home cooking has not solved the ills for Thursday home teams coming off a loss in their most recent game, as they have been a brutal bet over the last five seasons, going 27-33 SU and 23-36-1 ATS (39%).
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+1.5 vs SEA)


Good TNF Team Trends
Seattle 10-6 SU and 8-6-2 ATS in the last 16
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-1.5 at ARI)

(101) SEATTLE (2-1) at (102) ARIZONA (2-1)
* ARIZONA’s Jonathan Gannon is on a 6-2 Over the total streak vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-ARI (o/u at 43.5)

* SEATTLE is 41-52-1 ATS (44.1%) when coming off SU win since 2015
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 at ARI)

* ARIZONA is 27-31 ATS (46.6%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 13-19 ATS (40.6%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
* ARIZONA is 31-18 ATS (63.3%) as an underdog since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of ARIZONA (+1.5 vs SEA)
 

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