NFL Week 3 picks and score predictions: Winless Giants take Chiefs to the wire, 49ers edge unbeaten Cardinals
Here's your weekly dose of John Breech's NFL picks
If you're looking for a strategy to make picks in Week 3, don't overthink it, just take all the bird teams. I'm guessing all you ornithologists out there already do that every week, but everyone else might want to get on board because the bird teams went UNDEFEATED in Week 2.The Seahawks, Cardinals, Eagles, Falcons and Ravens all won, marking the first time since 2019 that all the bird teams won in the same week. The only way the week could have been any better for the bird teams is if Big Bird had handled the coin toss for one of the games.
Although the bird teams had a solid week, it wasn't so great for starting quarterbacks around the NFL as Joe Burrow (toe), J.J. McCarthy (ankle), Jayden Daniels (knee) and Justin Fields (concussion) all suffered some sort of injury. And let's not forget that Brock Purdy didn't even play in Week 2 due to an injury. We haven't even started Week 3 and 15% of the starting quarterbacks in the league have already gone down.
At the rate things are going, there's a 40% chance we're going to get Mac Jones vs. Jake Browning in the Super Bowl.
Speaking of those two, they'll both be starting this week and Jones will be starting against a bird team. Will I actually pick a bird team to lose? Let's get to the picks and find out.
Actually, before I get to the picks, here's your weekly reminder to check out all the picks from every NFL writer here at CBSSports.com.
The reason you should click over and check out the other experts this week is because you're going to want to print out my picks from last week and put them on your fridge. In Week 2, I went 15-1 and I would have gone 16-0 if I didn't stupidly pick against one of the bird teams. In case I didn't make myself clear, NEVER PICK AGAINST BIRD TEAMS.
With that in mind, let's get to the picks.
NFL Week 3 picks
Cincinnati (2-0) at Minnesota (1-1)
1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)If you're wondering how things are going in Minnesota, let met just put it like this: The Bengals just lost their starting quarterback for at least three months and I think you could make the argument that their season is still going better than Minnesota's.
The Vikings finished with a 14-3 record last season, but instead of sticking with the quarterback who got them there (Sam Darnold), Kevin O'Connell turned the keys to the offense over to J.J. McCarthy. He has played eight quarters so far and he has looked impressive for exactly one of those quarters and I'm not even sure we can count that quarter as impressive because it came against a Bears defense that gave up 51 points to the Lions in Week 2.
McCarthy has been so bad that Vikings fans aren now wishing that Minnesota had kept Daniel Jones.
Not everyone Vikings is wishing the team had Daniel Jones. Some other fans wish the Vikings had Kirk Cousins.
And this fan is so desperate, he's willing to trade a first-round pick to the Seahawks to get Darnold back.
These fans all have one thing in common and that's the fact that they wish the Vikings had anyone besides McCarthy at quarterback. I guess the good news is that their wish is going to come true this week because it's looking like Carson Wentz is going to be starting for the Vikings (McCarthy is unlikely to play due to an ankle injury).
If Wentz somehow leads the Vikings to a win over the Bengals and then O'Connell sends him back to the bench, there might be a mutiny in the Vikings' locker room. And just for the record, I've seen every Pirates of the Caribbean movie, so I know a possible mutiny when I see one.
With Wentz getting set to play, it's going to be a battle of the backups in Minnesota this week. For the Bengals, Jake Browning will be making his first start of the year. Browning is coming off a game where he threw three interceptions, but he also led a 92-yard game-winning drive. Based on the fact that Wentz and Browning are both making their first starts of the year, we probably won't be getting a shootout on Sunday.
There are only three teams in the NFL that are averaging less than 250 yards per game through two weeks and two of those teams will be playing in this game. We might only see eight yards of offense by both teams combined during the first quarter.
The Bengals are three plays away from being 0-2, but somehow, they seem to find a way to win every week and they're playing a Vikings team that still hasn't scored a first-quarter touchdown, a second-quarter touchdown or a third-quarter touchdown this year. That's a lot of quarters without a touchdown. I think I'll take the Bengals.
PICK: Bengals 23-20 over Vikings | Bengals +3.5 | Odds via BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first football wager loses:
Indianapolis (2-0) at Tennessee (0-2)
1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
The Colts suddenly look like the best team in the NFL and all it took was adding Daniel Jones to the team. Sorry Vikings fans, you can't have him. Through two weeks, no one has been able to figure out how to stop the Colts offense:
- Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL in rushing yards
- Tyler Warren leads the NFL in receiving yards by a tight end
- Daniel Jones is second in the NFL in passing yards
If Jones leads the Colts to the Super Bowl, someone will definitely have to turn that into a movie and the good news is that we already have the title for it.
With all the hype surrounding this team heading into Week 3, a classic move by the Colts would be for them to lose this game and that's not entirely impossible. The Titans have actually played well at times this year, especially on defense. Although they're 0-2, they held a second half lead against both the Broncos and Rams before eventually losing.
The problem for the Titans is that Cam Ward always seems to be running for his life. Whenever he drops back to pass, I've noticed that one of three things seems to happen: He gets sacked, he throws an incomplete pass or the play is blown dead because the Titans get called for a penalty.
Ward has already been sacked 11 times, which is the most of any quarterback in the NFL through two weeks. That puts him on pace to take 93.5 sacks this year, which would blow by the current NFL record of 76, a mark that was set in 2002 by David Carr.
The Colts offense can move the ball and the Titans offense can't, so I think we all know where I'm going with this pick: The legend of Indiana Jones lives on for another week.
PICK: Colts 23-16 over Titans | Colts -3 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook, where you can get 20 100% profit boosts with the promo code CBS20X. Get started here:
Arizona (2-0) at San Francisco (2-0)
4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo, try for free)According to Kyle Shanahan, there's a chance that Brock Purdy could play this week, but I'm not buying it. I mean, there's also a chance that a talking hamster will show up at my house and give me a check for $1 million, but I won't be holding my breath waiting for that, just like I won't be holding my breath expecting Purdy to play.
If Purdy is out, that means we're going to be getting another week of Mac Jones, who has given us even more proof that you can put almost anyone in Kyle Shanahan's offense and it will succeed. At this point, I'm convinced that a kicker could throw for 250 yards in Shanahan's offense. During their Week 2 game against the Saints, the 49ers didn't have Purdy or George Kittle, but they still managed to put up 344 yards and that was mostly thanks to Jones, who threw for 279 yards.
Jones' passing total was more than Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen threw for in Week 2. Am I saying that Jones is better than those three? Maybe, but I'll need to see him play at least one more game in Shanahan's offense to be sure.
As good as the 49ers' offense has been, the reason they're winning games is because of the defense. The return of Robert Saleh has given the unit a huge boost: The 49ers have surrendered the sixth-fewest yards in the NFL this year.
During the preseason, I picked the 49ers to win the NFC West and preseason me would punch present day me in the face if I picked against the 49ers here, so I'm going to have to roll with San Francisco. And no, I do NOT feel good about picking against a bird team. I'm already regretting it.
PICK: 49ers 20-16 over Cardinals | 49ers -1.5 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets after a winning $5 wager:
Kansas City (0-2) at N.Y. Giants (0-2)
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Fubo, try for free)
I have no idea how it happened, but the CHIEFS are playing in a Week 3 game involving two winless teams and it might be the best game on the schedule this week. Well, it might not be the best, but it should certainly be the most entertaining. For one, you have the Giants, who find a new way to lose every week. In Week 2, I can't even blame them for losing. The only reason they lost is because Brandon Aubrey went out and hit the third-longest field goal in NFL history to force overtime.
If Aubrey doesn't hit this kick, the Giants are 1-1. And then just to add insult to injury, Aubrey beat them in overtime with another field goal.
As for the Chiefs, we have already reached the point of the season where Travis Kelce is yelling at his teammates on the sideline for no reason.
Was he yelling at them because the Chiefs gave up a touchdown? No.
We he yelling at them because someone fumbled? No.
Was he yelling at them after Patrick Mahomes scored a touchdown to give Kansas City a 10-7 lead? Yes.
I think he needs to have a long talk with Taylor Swift about when it's OK to yell at your teammates.
Through two weeks, the Chiefs have struggled on both sides of the ball. With Rashee Rice suspended and Xavier Worthy out due to a shoulder, Mahomes is basically out there throwing passes to himself (and Kelce). Due to the Chiefs lack of weapons, the Giants actually match up somewhat well with them.
The only question here is what version of the Giants' offense will be showing up: Will it be the version that only scored six points against the Commanders in Week 1 or will it be the unstoppable version that put up 37 on the Cowboys in Week 2?
One crazy thing about this matchup that if I told you the NFL's leading passer was playing in this game, you'd probably assume that it was Patrick Mahomes, BUT IT'S NOT. Through two weeks, Russell Wilson is leading the NFL in passing yards with an average of 309 yards per game.
If Wilson goes off, the Giants could pull off a Giant upset here.
If the Chiefs had beaten the Eagles in Week 2, I think I would have taken the Giants, but at 0-2, the Chiefs are going to be desperate. The Giants will also be desperate, but in a situation like this, I'll take the team that has been to the Super Bowl in five of the past six years.
PICK: Chiefs 27-24 over Giants | Giants +6 | Odds via BetMGM
Detroit (1-1) at Baltimore (1-1)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, Fubo, try for free)
I know they lost in Week 1, but the Ravens might be scariest team in the NFL. They've played two games and they have hit the FORTY-POINT mark in both games. The Ravens are the fifth team over the past 20 years to open the season by scoring 40 points or more in back-to-back games and two of those five teams ended up playing in the Super Bowl (2009 Saints, 2013 Broncos).
You could argue that the Ravens' weakest link on offense this season has been Derrick Henry. In Week 1, he had a huge game with 169 yards, but he also lost a fumble late in the fourth quarter that allowed the Bills to come back and win. In Week 2, he ran for just 23 yards. Based on how the first two weeks have gone, I feel like the Lions are going to get an angry Henry and let me just say that the last person I would ever want to tackle is an angry Henry. I have never tried to tackle a steamroller, but I feel like that's what it would be like to tackle Henry when he's angry.
Although Henry struggled against the Browns in Week 2, the Ravens still managed to score 41 points. Since there is clearly no way of stopping the Ravens' offense, the only question is whether the Lions will be able to keep up. This is a Detroit team that couldn't get out of its own way during a Week 1 loss where they scored just 13 points against the Packers. However, in Week 2, they looked like the Lions of old by scoring 51 points against the Bears in a game where Jared Goff threw five touchdown passes.
If you can get pressure on Goff, you can slow down the Lions' offense, but getting pressure on him could be difficult for a Ravens team that likely won't have Kyle Van Noy. The pass-rusher, who led the team in sacks last year, is dealing with a hamstring injury and most likely won't be playing, so that could open the door for Goff to have a huge night (Goff threw for 334 yards and five touchdowns in Week 2).
Even if Goff goes off, I can't pick against the Ravens. Not only do they have an angry Henry, but they're also 18-2 straight up in their past 20 home prime-time games.
PICK: Ravens 41-31 over Lions | Ravens -6 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
NFL Week 3 picks: All the rest
Bills 30-20 over Dolphins
Packers 31-17 over Browns
Colts 23-16 over Titans
Steelers 19-16 over Patriots
Eagles 20-17 over Rams
Buccaneers 24-17 over Jets
Commanders 30-23 over Raiders
Falcons 24-13 over Panthers
Jaguars 22-19 over Texans
Chargers 27-24 over Broncos
Seahawks 27-13 over Saints
Cowboys 30-27 over Bears
Last Week
Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Patriots would go on the road and beat the Dolphins in Miami for the first time in six years, and guess what happened? The Patriots beat the Dolphins in Miami for the first time since 2019. For me, making this pick was easy because when it comes to picking games, I only have one rule: If your team has to hold a players-only meeting after the first week of the season, then there's a 100% chance I'm going to pick against your team. I call this the JJ Watt rule because JJ once explained why those meetings are never a good sign."If you're at players-only meetings point, just go ahead and book your January vacations. It is over," Watt said.
I don't want to say the Dolphins' season is over before we even get to Week 3, but based on Watt's comment, the Dolphins' season might already be over.
Worst pick: Last week, I picked against one bird team and that came when I inexplicably took the Steelers to beat the Seahawks. I only made the pick because I assumed that Mike Tomlin had taught his rookies the basics of the NFL rule book, you know, like the fact that you can't just let a kickoff ROLL INTO THE END ZONE without fielding it.
As Kaleb Johnson found out on Sunday, if you do not field the ball on a kickoff, the other team can recover it in the end zone for a touchdown. I'm pretty sure that most teams cover this rule on the first day of practice, except for the Steelers, apparently.
This was the ONLY straight-up pick I missed in Week 2, but I deserved it, because I picked against a bird team.
Picks Record
Straight up in Week 2: 15-1SU overall: 26-6
Against the spread in Week 2: 10-6
ATS overall: 17-15
