CNOTES 2022-2023 NBA TRENDS, NEWS, BEST BETS AND OPINIONS THRU THE PLAYOFFS !

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FRIDAY, MARCH 3​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
ORL at CHA07:00 PMCHA +4.0
O 226.0
+500 +500
BK at BOS07:30 PMBOS -11.0
O 228.0
+500 +500
POR at ATL07:30 PMATL -7.0
O 241.5
+500 +500
UTA at OKC08:00 PMUTA +1.0
O 232.0
+500 +500
PHO at CHI08:00 PMPHO -4.0
O 223.0
+500 +500
NY at MIA08:00 PMNY -2.5
U 215.5
+500 +500
MEM at DEN10:00 PMDEN -5.0
O 234.0
+500 +500
NO at GS10:00 PMGS -4.0
U 230.5
+500 +500
LAC at SAC10:00 PMSAC -6.0
U 239.5
+500 +500
MIN at LAL10:30 PMMIN +1.0
O 227.5
+500 +500
 

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Pending Picks​

DateLeagueGameScoreStatusPick
Mar 3, 2023NBANew Orleans
Golden State
-
-
10:00 PMUnder 230.5

Completed Picks​

DateLeagueGameScorePickOutcome
Mar 2, 2023NCAABHawaii
CSU Northridge
81
55
CSN +8.0Loss
Mar 1, 2023NCAABPenn St.
Northwestern
68
65
NW -3.5Loss
 

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Completed Picks​

DateLeagueGameScorePickOutcome
Mar 3, 2023NBANew Orleans
Golden State
99
108
Under 230.5Win
Mar 2, 2023NCAABHawaii
CSU Northridge
81
55
CSN +8.0Loss
Mar 1, 2023NCAABPenn St.
Northwestern
68
65
NW -3.5Loss
 

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Armadillo Sports

Saturday’s 6-pack

Odds to win the Southern Conference tournament…….
6-5— Furman
12-5— NC-Greensboro
4-1— Samford
14-1— Chattanooga
20-1— Wofford, East Tennessee State
25-1— Western Carolina

Tweet of the Day
“Poker is 100% skill and 50% luck.”
Phil Hellmuth

Saturday’s quiz
Butler made it to the Final Four two years in a row under coach Brad Stevens (2010-11);; what conference did the Bulldogs play in back then?

Friday’s quiz
VCU made the national championship game in 2011, as a #11-seed; Shaka Smart was their coach.

Thursday’s quiz
In the old TV show Gilligan’s Island, the rich guy’s name was Thurston Howell.

******************************

Saturday’s Den: Trends for conference tournaments, and other stuff

— Since 2015, there have been seven A-15 tournaments; seven different teams won those seven tournaments. Dayton/Fordham aren’t among those seven schools, so it could be eight teams in eight years after this year’s tournament.

VCU hasn’t won the A-15 tournament since 2015, which is surprising, since their regular season conference record during that time is 99-40.

— Toledo won the first MAC tournament, in 1980; they haven’t won one since. Rockets are 47-9 in conference games the last three years; this should be the year they end their drought and get back to the NCAA Tournament. Four different teams won last five MAC tourneys.

— Last six years, six different teams have won the CAA tournament; three of those six teams were the #1 seed. Charleston is the #1-seed this year; last time they won the CAA conference tournament was 2018.

— In Conference USA, five different teams won the last five conference tournaments; Florida Atlantic is the #1-seed; they haven’t won any conference tournament since 2002, when they won the Atlantic Sun tourney. #2/#3 seeds this year are North Texas/UAB, who won this event the last two years.

— In the Summit League, 10 of the last 11 conference tournaments have been won by either North Dakota State or South Dakota State; the event is held in Sioux Falls, SD every year.

This year, Oral Roberts is clearly the best team, going 18-0 in Summit games, five games better than anyone else. ORU won this event as the #3-seed three years ago. #1-seed won the Summit tournament five of the last eight years.

— Iona Gaels won five of the last six MAAC tournaments, actually five of last seven- they lost in the 2020 tournament, which was never finished because of COVID. Iona jogged to another regular season title this year; they’ll be favored to win in Atlantic City next week.

— #1-seed has won the Pac-12 tournament five of the last seven years, with Arizona winning four of those tournaments. UCLA will be the #1-seed this year; they haven’t won the Pac-12 tourney since 2014, USC hasn’t won it since 2009.

— Big Sky tournament has been won by the #1-seed 10 of the last 11 years; Eastern Washington won as the #2-seed two years ago. EWU is also the #1-seed this year; they lost their last two games, after an 18-game winning streak. #2-seed Montana State is clearly the next best team; they won the conference tournament last year.

— #1-seed has won the last nine Southern Conference tournaments; four different teams won the last four. Wofford in 2014 was the last non-#1-seed (#3-seed) to win the event. Furman/Samford tied for first place in the regular season this year; neither team has won the SoCon tournament in this century.

— In the ACC, four different teams won last four ACC tournaments; Virginia in 2018 was last #1-seed to win it. North Carolina hasn’t won the ACC tourney since 2016; Duke won in 2017, 2019.

— In the Big 14, #1-seed has won only one of last five conference tournaments; four different teams won the last four. Purdue is going to be the #1-seed, despite going 3-4 in their last seven games. Right now, there is a 6-way tie for second place in the Big 14, with one game to go.

— Jay Wright’s Villanova team won five of last seven Big East tournaments; they were the #1-seed in three of those five years, but Wright is working on TV now. Villanova is the #6-seed in the Big East this year, in Kyle Neptune’s first year as coach.

Marquette will be the #1-seed this year; Shaka Smart has won three conference tournaments in 12 years as a head coach, the last one with Texas two years ago.

— In the Big West, five different teams won the last six conference tournaments, with Cal State-Fullerton winning in 2018, 2022. #1-seed won two of last five tournaments. Irvine and Santa Barbara are tied for first with one game left in the regular season, with three other teams just a game behind those two.

— Loyola, Chicago won three of last five MVC Tournaments, but they’ve moved on to the A-15; Bradley won in 2019/2020- they won their 11th game in a row Friday, are the #1 seed in this year’s edition of Arch Madness.

— #1-seed won four of last six Mountain West tournaments; San Diego State won it only once in the last four years, despite going 55-15 in conference games those four seasons. Aztecs figure to be the #1-seed again this season.

UNLV hosts this tournament; they haven’t won the Mountain West tournament since 2008, back when BYU/TCU were also in the Mountain West.

Elsewhere………
Colorado State 92, New Mexico 84— Lobos were the last unbeaten team in the country; their first loss was January 3rd, but now they’ve lost 8 of their last 11 games and will need to win the Mountain West tournament to make the NCAA’s.

BYU 82, Portland 71— Portland led by 13 at halftime, got outscored 52-28 in second half. Cougars advance to play LMU Saturday at Orleans Arena.

Campbell 81, Longwood 68— #7-seed Camels upset #2-seed Longwood in the Big South quarterfinals. During the season, Longwood beat Campbell twice, by 24-25 points.

Toledo 87, Ball State 81— Rockets win the MAC regular season title; they won the first MAC tournament in 1980, haven’t won one since— they’ll need to win the tournament to make it to the NCAA’s.

Missouri Valley tournament
Drake 74, Murray State 62
Indiana State 94, Belmont 91


Big fish, small pond, that’s the secret to being a winning mid-major program. So many of these teams have success, then the administrators’ eyes get bigger than their stomach, and they move up to a bigger league, trying to join the big boys. It doesn’t work very often.

Murray State/Belmont were the big fish in the Ohio Valley; now neither one made the semi-final in their new league, a much better league.
 

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TORONTO is 16-4 Under (11.6 Units) in road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.

CLEVELAND is 11-1 Under (9.9 Units) in home games on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.

HOUSTON is 10-32 ATS (-25.2 Units) after 7 or more consecutive losses in the last 3 seasons.

ATLANTA is 13-33 ATS (-23.3 Units) in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games in the last 3 seasons.

PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days in the current season.

SACRAMENTO is 10-2 Over (7.8 Units) in home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 in the current season.




NBA

Saturday, March 4


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Trend Report
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Toronto @ Washington
Toronto
Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
Toronto is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing Washington
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Toronto
Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

Detroit @ Cleveland
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Detroit is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games

Atlanta @ Miami
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 8 games when playing Atlanta

Houston @ San Antonio
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing San Antonio
San Antonio
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games

Philadelphia @ Milwaukee
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Minnesota @ Sacramento
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
Sacramento
Sacramento is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Sacramento's last 11 games


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NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, March 4


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TORONTO (31 - 33) at WASHINGTON (30 - 32) - 3/4/2023, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 16-27 ATS (-13.7 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
TORONTO is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
TORONTO is 170-213 ATS (-64.3 Units) in March games since 1996.
TORONTO is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
WASHINGTON is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 63-77 ATS (-21.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 169-210 ATS (-62.0 Units) off an upset win as an underdog since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 4-3 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 5-3 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (15 - 48) at CLEVELAND (39 - 26) - 3/4/2023, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
DETROIT is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CLEVELAND is 30-19 ATS (+9.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEVELAND is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in home games this season.
DETROIT is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.
CLEVELAND is 34-52 ATS (-23.2 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 5-4 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 7-3 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (13 - 49) at SAN ANTONIO (16 - 47) - 3/4/2023, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 22-36 ATS (-17.6 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 20-34 ATS (-17.4 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
HOUSTON is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.
HOUSTON is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
HOUSTON is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.
HOUSTON is 32-56 ATS (-29.6 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
HOUSTON is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
HOUSTON is 41-58 ATS (-22.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 22-34 ATS (-15.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 623-539 ATS (+30.1 Units) in home games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 218-174 ATS (+26.6 Units) in March games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 33-20 ATS (+11.0 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 938-829 ATS (+26.1 Units) after allowing 105 points or less since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 230-184 ATS (+27.6 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 496-425 ATS (+28.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 26-37 ATS (-14.7 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 25-37 ATS (-15.7 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 24-37 ATS (-16.7 Units) as an underdog this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 6-3 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 7-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (32 - 31) at MIAMI (33 - 31) - 3/4/2023, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 67-83 ATS (-24.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 62-91 ATS (-38.1 Units) in road games on Saturday games since 1996.
ATLANTA is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 126-162 ATS (-52.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
MIAMI is 22-40 ATS (-22.0 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 12-29 ATS (-19.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
MIAMI is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home games this season.
MIAMI is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games in March games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
MIAMI is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 8-5 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 9-5 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
10 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (40 - 22) at MILWAUKEE (45 - 17) - 3/4/2023, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 28-17 ATS (+9.3 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
MILWAUKEE is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 36-26 ATS (+7.4 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 224-286 ATS (-90.6 Units) in home games in the second half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 5-3 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 6-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (33 - 32) at SACRAMENTO (37 - 25) - 3/4/2023, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 5-3 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 5-3 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 

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NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, March 4


Wqb6iiY.png
 

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SATURDAY, MARCH 4​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
TOR at WAS05:00 PMWAS +2.0
O 222.5
+500 +500
DET at CLE07:30 PMCLE -15.5
U 218.0
+500 +500
ATL at MIA08:00 PMMIA -2.5
O 225.5
+500 +500
HOU at SA08:00 PMSA +1.0
O 230.5
+500 +500
PHI at MIL08:30 PMMIL -4.5
U 231.5
+500 +500
MIN at SAC10:00 PMSAC -5.0
O 237.5
+500 +500
 

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Armadillo Sports

Sunday’s 6-pack

Five best batting averages in spring training:
.583— Henry Ramos, Cubs
.500— Jordan Walker, StL
.455— James Outman, LA
.438— Cavan Biggio, Tor
.438— Oscar Colas, CWS
.429— Eloy Jimenez, CWS

Tweet of the Day
“Wait a minute, you gonna make $70M and you can’t play basketball 3 or 4 days a week?’… They fly private. They got the best medical stuff ever created… People working in the steel mill every day, I’m pretty sure they tired too, but they go to work every day.”
Charles Barkley, on load management in the NBA

Sunday’s quiz
In the old animated TV show The Jetsons, what high school did George’s daughter Judy go to?

Saturday’s quiz
Butler made it to the Final Four two years in a row under coach Brad Stevens (2010-11); the Bulldogs played in the Horizon League back then.

Friday’s quiz
VCU made the national championship game in 2011, as a #11-seed; Shaka Smart was their coach.

*******************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a college basketball Saturday

WCC

I’m sitting here at 3:15am watching the second overtime of the San Francisco-Saint Mary’s game from the WCC tournament in Las Vegas. It reminds me that ESPN’s old College Basketball Marathon, where they showed games for like 30 straight hours on a Monday/Tuesday, early in the season, was great fun. They should bring it back next year.

San Francisco 93, Santa Clara 87 2OT— Great game, ton of action, but it is 3:25am and I’m posting this and going to sleep. Maybe I’ll watch a movie first, but I’m signing off here.

OVC
SE Missouri State 89, Tennessee Tech 82, OT— First ticket to March Madness is punched by the Redhawks, who at one point this season, were 5-9. SE Missouri won four games in four days to win their first conference title in 23 years, and they had to play overtime on the 4th day, after blowing an 11-point second half lead.

This game is what March is all about; just getting into the NCAA’s is a huge deal for these guys and they did it in dramatic style.

Old guy rant: In an era where rich NBA guys sometimes don’t play on consecutive days, four Redhawks played 36:00+ in this game, while playing for the fourth day in a row.

Northeast Conference
Merrimack 71, Sacred Heart 60
Fairleigh Dickinson 70, St Francis PA 50


Merrimack is the top seed, but they’re not eligible for the NCAA Tournament; this is only their 4th year in Division I, so Fairleigh Dickinson punches the second ticket to the NCAA’s- they go to the NCAA’s for the first time since 2019, no matter happens in the NEC final.

SEC
Texas A&M 67, Alabama 61— Aggies were 6-5 on Christmas Day; they’re 17-3 since then, winning eight of their last nine games. A&M was 27-28 on the foul line; they’re the #2-seed in SEC tournament, finishing a game behind Alabama.

Kentucky 88, Arkansas 79— Wildcats finish 21-10, 12-6 in SEC play, winning five of last six regular season games. Kentucky fans who have been whining about Calipari can put a sock in it; Bracketology has Kentucky as a 7-seed in NCAA’s.

Arkansas has lost three in row, five of last seven games; they’ll be the #10 seed in SEC tourney, making them a bubble team for the NCAAs if they don’t win a game next week.

Big X
Iowa Sate 73, Baylor 58— Gambling is hard. This score makes no sense; Cyclones had lost four games in a row, but they shot 62.5% inside arc and won fairly easily. Now they can relax; they are in the NCAA’s, will be playing for seeding at the Big X tournament.

West Virginia 89, Kansas State 81— Mountaineers get off the bubble, winning three of last four games, scoring 80 ppg.

ACC
Duke 82, North Carolina 77— Tar Heels are 2-10 vs Quad 1 teams; how many wins do they need in the ACC tournament, to get to the NCAA’s? Tar Heels finished 7th in the ACC; no pre-season #1 team has ever missed the NCAA Tournament.

Miami 78, Pitt 76— Won’t know for sure until we see the brackets next Sunday, but kind of like Miami as a Cinderella Final Four team. Hurricanes won eight of last nine games, and they blew a 25-point lead in the one loss.

Miami is #28 experience team, with #144 continuity not bad; they’re #22 in offense efficiency, and important metric for the NCAA Tournament.

Big East
Marquette 96, St John’s 94
— On Christmas Day, Marquette was 9-4; they’re 16-2 since then, and won the Big East regular season title. by two games.

Shaka Smart is a really good coach; he is 44-19 in two years at Marquette, but fact of the matter is, he hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 2013, losing his last seven NCAA Tourney games. He got VCU to the Final Four as an 11-seed in 2011, went WL in next two tournaments, but has come up dry since. This could be the year his team makes another run in the NCAA’s.

Sun Belt
South Alabama 78, Southern Miss 61— #1-seed Southern Miss was a great story this year, after going 24-65 the last three years, but they get upset in first round of Sun Belt tourney. USA outscored the Eagles 52-34 in the second half; they’ve won 10 of their last 12 games.

Mountain West
San Jose State 63, Air Force 61— Spartans trailed 45-25 early in second half, but rallied to win and move to 19-12; they’ll have a bye in the Mountain West tournament for the first time ever.

UNLV 69, Nevada 67 OT— Rebels upset their in-state rivals, giving them their first home loss this season. UNLV jumped out to a 13-0 lead, but trailed 54-46 with 2:27 left. Nevada was 23-35 on foul line, Rebels were 8-11. Nevada finishes as the #4-seed in Mountain West, UNLV #7.

Southern Conference
Chattanooga 85, Samford 82
— #7-seed Mocs upset #2-seed Samford, making 15-28 shots on the arc. Kid on Samford scored 27 points in 28:00 and he didn’t start. Bulldogs are 42-22 the last two seasons, but went 1-2 in the SoCon tournament.

Atlantic 15
VCU 74, George Washington 68— Rams with regular season title by three games, but this is going to be the first time in over a decade this league gets only one team in NCAAs, which makes the conference tournament huge, obviously. Last seven years, seven different teams won the A-15 tournament; next week is going to be fun.

Missouri Valley
Bradley 71, Indiana State 70
— Braves won their 12th straight game, shooting 62% inside the arc; they advance to play Drake in MVC finals Sunday. Bradley survived 5-24 shooting on the arc.

Conference USA
UAB 93, Charlotte 91, 2OT— Jordan Walker scored 41 points for the Blazers; he was 8-20 on the arc. Charlotte’s whole team was 8-23 on the arc. UAB has won six in a row, 10 of last 11 games; if they play North Texas in the C-USA semi-finals next week, that’ll be a great game.

Florida Atlantic 76, Louisiana Tech 72— Owls are having their best season ever, with a 28-3 record heading into the C-USA Tournament; FAU hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2002. Bracketology has FAU as a #9-seed; they could conceivably get in as an at-large team, if they lose in the conference tournament.
 

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MEMPHIS are 9-0 ATS (9 Units) in home games after scoring 105 points or less in the current season.

DALLAS are 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games in the last 3 seasons.

LA LAKERS are 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) vs. division opponents in the last 3 seasons.

INDIANA is 77-51 Over (20.9 Units) after a loss in the last 3 seasons.

ORLANDO is 14-4 ATS (9.6 Units) after 2+ road games in the current season.

CHARLOTTE is 7-0 Over (7 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents in the current season.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-0 Over (8 Units) in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

HOUSTON is 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) in home games after failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread in the last 3 seasons.

BOSTON is 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons.

MILWAUKEE is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite in the current season.

MEMPHIS are 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) after scoring 105 points or less in the current season.
 

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Sunday, March 5


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Trend Report
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Phoenix @ Dallas
Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games on the road
Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing at home against Phoenix

Indiana @ Chicago
Indiana
Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indiana's last 8 games when playing Chicago
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games when playing Indiana

Golden State @ LA Lakers
Golden State
Golden State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 6 games

Portland @ Orlando
Portland
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Portland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Orlando's last 11 games

Charlotte @ Brooklyn
Charlotte
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Charlotte's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Charlotte's last 6 games on the road
Brooklyn
Brooklyn is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Charlotte
Brooklyn is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home

Utah @ Oklahoma City
Utah
Utah is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah's last 6 games
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Utah
Oklahoma City is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Utah

San Antonio @ Houston
San Antonio
San Antonio is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Houston's last 21 games when playing at home against San Antonio

New York @ Boston
New York
New York is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New York is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Boston
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games at home

Milwaukee @ Washington
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Milwaukee

Memphis @ LA Clippers
Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 5 games
Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games when playing Memphis
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Clippers's last 11 games when playing at home against Memphis


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Long Sheet

Sunday, March 5


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PHOENIX (35 - 29) at DALLAS (33 - 31) - 3/5/2023, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 25-37 ATS (-15.7 Units) after allowing 105 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 31-17 ATS (+12.3 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 150-116 ATS (+22.4 Units) on Sunday games since 1996.
DALLAS is 48-35 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 140-109 ATS (+20.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 91-68 ATS (+16.2 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 57-38 ATS (+15.2 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 24-37 ATS (-16.7 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) as a favorite this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 9-7 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 10-6 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
10 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (34 - 30) at LA LAKERS (30 - 34) - 3/5/2023, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in road games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 18-32 ATS (-17.2 Units) in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 56-89 ATS (-41.9 Units) in road games on Sunday games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 99-121 ATS (-34.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 168-214 ATS (-67.4 Units) in March games since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 6-5 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 6-5 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (28 - 36) at CHICAGO (29 - 35) - 3/5/2023, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 31-14 ATS (+15.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 106-76 ATS (+22.4 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 5-5 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 6-4 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (29 - 34) at ORLANDO (27 - 37) - 3/5/2023, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 62-81 ATS (-27.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 46-62 ATS (-22.2 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 32-54 ATS (-27.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 28-44 ATS (-20.4 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 32-50 ATS (-23.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 30-21 ATS (+6.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
ORLANDO is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in non-conference games this season.
ORLANDO is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 3-2 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 3-2 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHARLOTTE (20 - 45) at BROOKLYN (35 - 28) - 3/5/2023, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 27-36 ATS (-12.6 Units) in all games this season.
CHARLOTTE is 24-33 ATS (-12.3 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
BROOKLYN is 65-81 ATS (-24.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 49-65 ATS (-22.5 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 33-57 ATS (-29.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 24-48 ATS (-28.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 20-38 ATS (-21.8 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) after allowing 105 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 21-34 ATS (-16.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 5-4 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN is 6-3 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (31 - 33) at OKLAHOMA CITY (29 - 34) - 3/5/2023, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 24-36 ATS (-15.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 32-22 ATS (+7.8 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) on Sunday games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) after allowing 105 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) as an underdog this season.
UTAH is 117-85 ATS (+23.5 Units) on Sunday games since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-3 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 8-1 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (16 - 48) at HOUSTON (14 - 49) - 3/5/2023, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 26-38 ATS (-15.8 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 25-38 ATS (-16.8 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 24-38 ATS (-17.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) in road games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 218-175 ATS (+25.5 Units) in March games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 446-379 ATS (+29.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
HOUSTON is 23-36 ATS (-16.6 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 21-34 ATS (-16.4 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
HOUSTON is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.
HOUSTON is 38-66 ATS (-34.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 34-52 ATS (-23.2 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 33-56 ATS (-28.6 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 30-60 ATS (-36.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 6-4 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 7-3 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW YORK (38 - 27) at BOSTON (45 - 19) - 3/5/2023, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 89-75 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 49-33 ATS (+12.7 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 36-26 ATS (+7.4 Units) in all games this season.
NEW YORK is 30-21 ATS (+6.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
NEW YORK is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games this season.
NEW YORK is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 6-4 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 6-4 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (38 - 24) at LA CLIPPERS (33 - 33) - 3/5/2023, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in road games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 40-25 ATS (+12.5 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 88-64 ATS (+17.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 70-51 ATS (+13.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 55-38 ATS (+13.2 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) against Pacific division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after scoring 100 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 122-158 ATS (-51.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 5-2 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 5-2 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (45 - 18) at WASHINGTON (30 - 33) - 3/5/2023, 7:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 35-24 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 28-18 ATS (+8.2 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
MILWAUKEE is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing on back-to-back days this season.
MILWAUKEE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 63-78 ATS (-22.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-4 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 6-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (14 - 49) at MEMPHIS (38 - 24) - 3/5/2023, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 5-3 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 7-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SUNDAY, MARCH 5​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
PHO at DAL01:00 PMDAL -1.0
O 234.0
+500 +500
GS at LAL03:30 PMGS -5.0
U 235.5
+500 +500
IND at CHI03:30 PMCHI -6.5
U 224.0
+500 +500
POR at ORL06:00 PMORL -2.5
U 229.0
+500 +500
CHA at BK06:00 PMCHA +8.0
O 227.0
+500 +500
SA at HOU07:00 PMSA +2.5
O 230.0
+500 +500
UTA at OKC07:00 PMUTA +6.0
O 235.0
+500 +500
MIL at WAS07:30 PMMIL -4.5
O 227.5
+500 +500
NY at BOS07:30 PMBOS -5.5
U 228.0
+500 +500
MEM at LAC10:00 PMLAC -7.0
U 228.0
+500 +500
 

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Jun 22, 2009
Messages
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Tokens
Armadillo Sports

Monday’s 6-pack

The last 11 days for college basketball referee John Higgins:
February 23- Washington State @ Stanford
February 24- Wyoming @ Colorado State
February 25- USC @ Utah
February 26- UCLA @ Colorado
February 27- Baylor @ Oklahoma State
February 28- Texas Tech @ Kansas

March 1- Texas @ TCU
March 2- Valparaiso vs Murray State @ St Louis
March 3- Northern Iowa vs Bradley @ St Louis
March 4- Kansas State @ West Virginia
March 5- Drake vs Bradley @ St Louis

Quote of the Day
“What I’m saying from this point and through the weekend tournament, we have to understand how we got to play, how we got to fight, how we have to execute. If that means win games like today, great. if it means ah, they made a bank shot, they made a walk on a step back — drag his foot, walk and make it, and they don’t call it and it’s like ‘boom’ and you lose the game?

Stuff like that happens. It happens. But as long as we play, we fight, we execute, we’re preparing for that next tournament. And that’s the most important thing.”
John Calipari

Monday’s quiz
How many Division I college basketball teams are there in the state of Indiana?

Sunday’s quiz
In the old animated TV show The Jetsons, George’s daughter Judy went to Orbit High School.

Saturday’s quiz
Butler made it to the Final Four two years in a row under coach Brad Stevens (2010-11); the Bulldogs played in the Horizon League back then.

****************************

Monday’s Den: Does success in conference tournaments predict success in the NCAA’s?

— There have already been several upsets in the mid/lower conference tournaments, which will put the teams who win those tournaments in the four play-in games in Dayton March 14-15.

SE Missouri State, Fairleigh Dickinson figure to be headed to Dayton; if Montana State wins the Big Sky, they’ll probably avoid a play-in game, but maybe not. If Northern Arizona wins the Big Sky, they’re definitely headed to Dayton. Kennesaw State might also be in a play-in game, in their first-ever NCAA Tournament.

Life figures to be a little easier in the first round this year, for the #1 and #2-seeds.

— When the NCAA Tournament brackets come out next week, how do you choose the four teams you think will make the Final Four? There are a lot of theories on this…….

Today, we’re going to examine whether success in the conference tournament leads to winning a national championship. This obviously only applies to the multi-bid, big $$$$ leagues; the mid-major teams have to win their conference tournament just to get in the tournament.

— Over the last 20 years, nine of the 20 national champs also won their conference tournament
— Only two of the last seven national champs also won their conference tournament.

— In the last 20 years, no team has won a national championship without winning its first game in their conference tournament.
— In the last 20 years, of the 80 teams who made the Final Four, teams went 70-10 in the first game in their conference tournament.

— In the last 20 years, the eventual national champ only went 12-8 in their second conference tournament game.
— In the last 20 years, teams that lost the national championship game went 12-7 in their second conference tournament
— In the last 20 years, teams that lost the national semi-finals went 26-5 in their second conference tournament game.

In the conference tournaments with Sunday finals, I’ve often thought that coaches aren’t all that heartbroken if their team loses on Saturday; playing on Sunday, then maybe having to play their first NCAA tourney game on Thursday is a quick turnaround.

Recent years (twice in last seven years) suggest that just because a team loses in its conference tournament doesn’t mean they won’t win a national title. Losing the first game of a tournament appears to be a pretty big red flag.

— Anyone ever had lemon Oreo cookies? They were talking about them on the Duke-North Carolina game Saturday night, now I have to buy some to see if they’re any good, unless someone tells me they’re hideous. Early returns have been in favor of them.

— If you like college basketball, ESPN+ is a great thing to have; can watch ballgames and replays of games night and day, even obscure games.

Furman 83, Western Carolina 80 OT— Last year, Furman lost the SoCon final 64-63 in OT, after leading by 12 early on, losing on a leaning 3-pointer at the buzzer; it was a very devastating loss for a Paladin squad that has not made the NCAA’s since 1980.

Sunday, Furman led this game by 20 early in the second half; they blew the lead, their best player fouled out in overtime, but they pulled the game out, and advance to the SoCon final against Chattanooga Monday night the same Chattanooga team that beat them in last year’s final.

Houston 67, Memphis 65— Cougars trailed 56-51 with 6:34 left; Jamal Shead hit an 18-footer as time expired to give Houston a dramatic road win.

The Final Four is in Houston next month, in Jim Nantz’s last year doing the tournament on CBS. Nantz is a Houston alum; he played on the golf team. Are the Cougars a team of destiny?

Drake 77, Bradley 51— Drake scored 1.26 points/possession, led by 20 at the half, and won Arch Madness for the first time since 2008. Bulldogs start three graduate students; they’ve got a lot of experience/continuity. Plus, they shoot the ball well.

NC-Asheville 77, Campbell 73— 7th-seed Camels led by 14 with 7:35 left in game, but couldn’t get over the hump and #1-seed Asheville wins its 9th straight game, making NCAA’s for first time since 2016. Asheville has won 18 of its last 19 games.

South Alabama 75, James Madison 66— 8th-seeded Jaguars were 8-13 on January 26th; since then, they’re 11-2, allowing 62.7 ppg in first three games of this tournament. South Alabama is a thin team (#339 in bench minutes) playing for third day in row tomorrow; they’re #347 team in continuity- they play #2-seed Louisiana tomorrow night in the Sun Belt final.

Kennesaw State 67, Liberty 66— Three years ago, Owls were 1-28; now they’re in the NCAA’s for the first time ever. Hopefully they’ll avoid a play-in game and get to enjoy their status for an extra couple days. Kennesaw played the A-Sun tournament at home; two of their three wins were by a single point.

— Texas Tech suspended basketball coach Mark Adams for what the school calls an “inappropriate, unacceptable, and racially insensitive comment.”

From ESPN.com: “Adams was encouraging a player to be more receptive to coaching and ‘referenced Bible verses about workers, teachers, parents, and slaves serving their masters.’ Adams apologized to the team after he found out the player was upset about the use of the Bible verse.”

Adams is 66 years old; he is 43-25 in two seasons as Tech’s coach. Tech made the Sweet 16 last year; they’re 16-15, 5-13 this year. Rich boosters like the Sweet 16 a lot better than they like a 5-13 conference record.

— Longwood Lancers are 20-12 this season; they have a player Michael Christmas, who wears number 25, which makes sense, seeing how Christmas is on the 25th and all.

— Bradley Braves were the #1-seed in the Missouri Valley tournament; this was the first time Bradley was the #1-seed in Arch Madness since 1996.

— North Carolina F Leaky Black is in his fifth year of college basketball; Saturday night was his 153rd game for the Tar Heels, which is a school record.

— More and more mid-major/low major teams seem to recruiting foreign players; Saint Mary’s has thrived for years thanks to recruiting Australian players. Teams who don’t get on ESPN a lot have to be creative where they get talented players.
 

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Messages
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Tokens
BOSTON is 17-6 ATS (10.4 Units) in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

PORTLAND is 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) when playing 6 or less games in 14 days in the last 3 seasons.

PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days in the current season.

MIAMI is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in home games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread in the last 3 seas...

DENVER is 37-17 Over (18.3 Units) in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 in the last 3 seasons.

SACRAMENTO is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games in the current season.




NBA
Dunkel

Monday, March 6


NUzOMmy.png





NBA

Monday, March 6


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Trend Report
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Boston @ Cleveland
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 8 games on the road
Boston is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland
Cleveland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston

Philadelphia @ Indiana
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Indiana
Indiana
Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Portland @ Detroit
Portland
Portland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 12 games when playing at home against Portland

Atlanta @ Miami
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 9 games when playing Miami
Miami
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

Toronto @ Denver
Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver
Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

New Orleans @ Sacramento
New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games
Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 5 games at home
Sacramento is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games


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