Cnotes 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

[Udog]

Sunday Blitz - Week 1
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Falcons at Vikings (-3 ½, 48) – 1:00 PM EST

Following consecutive playoff appearances which included the greatest Super Bowl meltdown of all-time, the Falcons slipped to 7-9 in 2018 and missed the postseason. Atlanta started 1-4 and could never break the .500 mark, while owning one of the worst ATS marks in the league by covering only five games. The Falcons didn’t defeat a single team that made the playoffs, but managed to win their final two road contests of the season at Carolina and Tampa Bay.

The Vikings took a step back following an NFC championship appearance in 2017 as Minnesota posted an 8-7-1 record last season. Kirk Cousins threw for 4,298 yards and 30 touchdowns in his first season with the Vikings, but the running game struggled following rookie Dalvin Cook’s ACL injury in Week 9. Minnesota won seven of eight home contests in 2017, but fell to 5-3 at U.S. Bank Stadium in 2018, while hitting the UNDER in six of eight home games last season.

This series has been owned by the Vikings the last few seasons as Minnesota has claimed all three meetings since 2014. However, the Vikings were listed as underdogs in all three victories, including in a 14-9 triumph in 2017 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium as two-point ‘dogs. Minnesota is hosting Atlanta for the first time since 2014, as the Vikings won 41-28 at TCF Bank Stadium on the campus of the University of Minnesota.

Best Bet: Falcons 21, Vikings 16

Rams (-2 ½, 50) at Panthers – 1:00 PM EST

The last four NFC champions have not returned to the Super Bowl, as Los Angeles looks to buck that trend this season. The Rams are coming off a 13-3 campaign, capped off by their second straight NFC West championship. Los Angeles won six of eight games away from the Coliseum, while owning a solid 13-3 mark on the highway under head coach Sean McVay. Following a 3-0 ATS start in 2018, the Rams slipped to 2-8-1 ATS in the next 11 games before covering four straight games, including the controversial NFC title win at New Orleans.

The Panthers were on their way to the playoffs after a fast 6-2 start, but Carolina fell on hard times by losing seven consecutive games before a victory in the season finale to finish 7-9. Carolina lost four games by six points or less during that dreadful stretch, including home setbacks to Seattle and New Orleans by three points each. The Panthers have fared well in openers the last few seasons by putting together a 4-1 SU/ATS record in Week 1 since 2014, while winning five straight home openers.

These two old division rivals haven’t seen much of each other recently with only three matchups since 2010. The Panthers edged the Rams, 13-10 at the Coliseum in 2016, while L.A. is making its first trip to Charlotte since 2013 in a 30-15 setback. Since McVay was hired in 2017, the Rams own a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record in games played in the Eastern Time Zone, including a 30-16 victory at Detroit last season.

Best Bet: Rams 27, Panthers 23

Giants at Cowboys (-7, 45 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

The ongoing drama during the preseason regarding the contract status of Cowboys’ running back Ezekiel Elliott finally came to end just in time before the season opener. The former Ohio State standout agreed to a six-year, $90 million extension after sitting out the preseason as he will suit in Week 1. The Cowboys overcame a 3-5 start in 2018 to win seven of their final eight games to clinch the NFC East title. Although Dallas was knocked out by Los Angeles in the divisional playoffs, the Cowboys closed last season by compiling an 8-1 record at AT&T Stadium, which included the two-point Wild Card win over Seattle.

The Giants selected Duke’s Daniel Jones with their top pick in the draft to be the heir apparent to veteran Eli Manning under center. However, Jones will remain Manning’s backup to start the season as the Giants try to avoid their third consecutive last-place finish in the NFC East. New York finished 5-11 in 2018, but the Giants were a quality team to back away from Met Life Stadium as they compiled a 7-1 ATS mark on the road.

The lone ATS setback on the highway for the Giants in 2018 came at Dallas in a 20-13 defeat as three-point underdogs in Week 2. The Cowboys swept the Giants for the second consecutive season, while the past three matchups in Arlington have finished UNDER the total. New York is seeking its first win at Dallas since the 2016 opener when the Giants edged the Cowboys, 20-19 in Dak Prescott’s debut.

BEST TOTAL PLAY – (11-6 in 2018)

Under 50 ½ - Chiefs at Jaguars

Kansas City’s offense was the best in the league last season behind Patrick Mahomes and his 50 touchdown passes. The Chiefs head to Jacksonville to face the re-tooled Jaguars, who have more confidence in the quarterback position after signing with former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles. However, Foles didn’t play much in the preseason and takes over an offense that scored 16 points or less in five home games last season. The Chiefs created five turnovers in a 30-14 blowout of the Jaguars last season at Arrowhead, while their road defensive numbers weren’t great but faced the likes of the Chargers, Steelers, Seahawks, Patriots, and Rams (who all ranked in the top eight in offense in the NFL).

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The pressure on the Cleveland Browns will be enormous this season following all the hype in the offseason. The Browns made drastic improvements last season by hanging around the playoff race nearly to the end, while winning seven games following a 1-31 stretch from 2016-17. The Titans finished with a better record than the Browns last season, while posting a perfect 3-0 ATS mark as a road underdog of four points or more. Cleveland closed as a favorite of more than a field goal once in 2018 as the Browns failed to cover in a 26-18 win as 10-point chalk against the Bengals (Browns did lead 26-3 late in fourth).

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

To no one’s surprise, the Colts moved from a 3 ½-point underdog against the Chargers when lines were released at the Westgate Superbook in April all the way up to 6 ½. Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement after the preseason jacked that line in Los Angeles’ favor as the Colts will turn to Jacoby Brissett for the season at quarterback. The positive sign for the Colts is they face a Chargers’ squad that posted a 2-5-1 ATS mark as a home favorite last season.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

Eight teams feature new head coaches this season, including six men coaching their first ever regular season game. Last season, all six coaches in their team debuts lost (Chicago’s Matt Nagy, Detroit’s Matt Patricia, Indianapolis’ Frank Reich, New York’s Pat Shurmur, Oakland’s Jon Gruden, Tennessee’s Mike Vrabel). Three of those teams lost as a home underdog (Giants, Colts, Raiders), as the Cardinals and Dolphins both fall in that position in Week 1. This trend has been temporarily bucked by the Packers, as new head coach Matt LaFleur picked up his first win in Thursday’s 10-3 victory at Chicago.

 

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 1
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Vikings are 10-0-1 ATS (7.59 ppg) since Nov 02, 2008 as a home favorite when the game total is at least 46.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Colts are 0-10 ATS (14.0 ppg) since 2008 in season opening games when the total is under 55.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Steelers are 7-0 ATS (7.00 ppg) since Oct 12, 2015 as a dog facing a team Ben Roethlisberger threw at least 2 touchdowns against last meeting.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
-- Teams in week 1 with 4 or fewer losses (including playoffs) last season are 38-49-1 ATS. Active against LA Rams and New Orleans.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Lions are 8-0 OU (10.38 ppg) since Sep 09, 2007 in the first game of the season.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Jets are 0-7 OU (-8.57 ppg) since Sep 15, 1991 at home when the total is over 40 with a Monday night game next.

 

[Udog]

Armadillo: Top six picks for Week 1 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Panthers +2.5, 845

5) Broncos even, 856

4) Buccaneers even, 862

3) Texans +7, 904

2) Colts +6.5, 1,052

1) Ravens -6.5, 1,080

 

[Udog]

Sunday's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Falcons at Vikings (-4/47), 1 p.m. ET: Running back Dalvin Cook’s return to full strength will be the x-factor set to separate the Vikings from the elite team they were in 2017 (13-3) and the mediocre 8-7-1 unit they were last year. Although he only played in four games as a rookie before tearing his ACL and got into 10 last season, he’s showing off the burst that he brought into the league and should give the offense the boost it was missing in scoring just 10 or fewer points in three of the last five. Receiver Stefon Diggs missed practice earlier in the week but is expected to play through a hamstring issue. Corner Mike Hughes, who shined as a rookie, is coming off a knee injury and may be the only player not ready to go in this opener.

Atlanta is mostly healthy too, but may have to start a rookie at right tackle in late first-round pick Kaleb McGary, who dealt with an injury in camp, so it is dealing with uncertainty up front. WR Julio Jones is expected to play despite his contract situation remaining unsettled. The Falcons lost four of their first five last season and have never defeated Minnesota in September, losing all eight all-time meetings. The Vikings went just 5-3 SU (4-3-1 ATS) at home last season after putting together a 9-1 run (7-3 ATS) spanning the end of the US Bank Stadium’s first season and its second.

Redskins at Eagles (-10/45), 1 p.m. ET: Carson Wentz will play in his first game since being shelved last December and didn’t get in during the preseason. Per Philly observers, he’s looked sharp in joint practices and looks noticeably leaner, losing the brace he was playing with to help protect him last season after his ACL surgery. He’ll have two new running backs to hand off to with Bears import Jordan Howard and rookie Miles Sanders taking over. New deep threat Desean Jackson has returned to Eagles nation and is expected to play after dealing with a hand issue late in the preseason.

Colt McCoy was the frontrunner to start this one when camp began but couldn’t get on the field to prepare and is still strengthening his leg. Case Keenum gets the nod and will work with a receiving corps featuring four players whose next catch will be their first as pros. Paul Richardson and rookie third-round pick Terry McLaurin are expected to be his top targets at wideout. Tight end Jordan Reed should play despite coming off a concussion. Derrius Guice won the running back job over Adrian Peterson, but both are worse off for tackle Trent Williams’ continued holdout. Philadelphia has won the last four meetings between these NFC East rivals, capturing each by double-digits.

Bills at Jets (-3/41.5), 1 p.m. ET: Sam Darnold and Josh Allen will be tied together as long as they’re at the helm for their respective teams. They were the second and third quarterbacks taken behind Baker Mayfield in the 2018 draft and started against one another in Week 14 last December. Darnold picked up the win while Allen ran for over 100 yards and threw for more than 200. Combined, they threw three picks. Since both teams were going nowhere 10 months ago, this contest will have a completely different feel as the season opener.

The Adam Gase era begins against a Greg McDermott’s Bills, who beat Miami in three of four head-to-head meetings over the past two seasons but stunningly cut LeSean McCoy in the preseason, moving forward with veterans Frank Gore and T.J. Yeldon in addition to rookie Devin Singletary. Le’Veon Bell joining the Jets is even bigger news that Gase’s hiring and should further aid Darnold’s progression. The ‘over’ is 4-2 in the last six meetings between these teams, cashing in each of the last three games.

Ravens (-6.5/39.5) at Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET: Baltimore has won its last three season openers under John Harbaugh by a combined score of 80-10 and has produced victories in eight of 11 under their long-tenured head coach. Flacco started every one of those, capturing the first as a rookie, but he’s set to debut under center for the Broncos on Monday night.

South Florida native Lamar Jackson looks to improve on a 6-1 regular-season record as the Ravens’ starter and will look to ruin Brian Flores’ coaching debut with the Dolphins. Miami’s personnel moves point to it tanking for Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa this season, and that includes riding with veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick over Josh Rosen. RB Kenyan Drake is expected to get a lot of touches after being cleared from a foot injury that has bothered him the past few weeks. After dealing star left tackle Laremy Tunsil, Julien Davenport is likely to replace him on Miami’s new-look offensive line. The Ravens will have everyone on the roster available so long as rookie WR “Hollywood” Brown plays through a foot issue. This is a homecoming game for him too.

Chiefs (-3.5/51.5) at Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET: Kansas City WR Tyreek Hill avoided suspension and now gets another matchup with Jalen Ramsey, who called him a “return specialist” last season and held him to just four catches and 61 yards when they matched up for the first time last season. Ramsey is expected to shadow him throughout the field, so reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes should have the option to again feature Travis Kelce and take new toy LeSean McCoy out for a spin.

Jacksonville lost at Arrowhead 30-14 last Oct. 7 in a game where former starter Blake Bortles was intercepted four times. Former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles was acquired in the offseason and looks to pull off a home upset to set the tone for a big year. After limited action in the preseason, we’ll finally get to see him debut despite abdominal soreness. Left tackle Cam Robinson (knee) and his backup, Cedric Ogbuehi (hamstring), appeared on this week’s injury report. The Chiefs are 5-1 in openers under Andy Reid, winning the last four. Four of those victories have come on the road, including the very first, a 28-2 rout in Jacksonville. The Jaguars have lost their last four matchups against Kansas City, last winning in 2009.

Titans at Browns (-5/45.5), 1 p.m. ET: Baker Mayfield looks to build on a spectacular rookie season by helping the Browns open a season with a victory for the first time 2004 after watching last season’s 20-20 tie against Pittsburgh as Tyrod Taylor’s backup in his debut. A lot has transpired over the past 12 months and new weapons Odell Beckham, Jr. and Kareem Hunt will be deployed here to try and help Mayfield move the ball against one of the NFL’s most talented secondaries. ODB is reportedly still dealing with a hip issue but should debut for the Browns. Safeties Kevin Byard and Kenny Vaccaro could ruin the party in Cleveland, where its team being favored at home was news less than a year ago.

Marcus Mariota held off the charge of the newly acquired Ryan Tannehill and has a new coordinator calling the shots with Arthur Smith replacing current Packers head coach Matt LaFleur. The game plan is expected to be heavy on ball control and running back, who broke out as a 1,000-yard rusher for the first time, scoring 12 touchdowns. He’ll be running behind a line that will have tackle Jack Conklin in the mix but could be without projected starting right guard Kevin Pamphile.

Rams (-1.5/50) at Panthers, 1 p.m. ET: Cam Newton has come through shoulder surgery and feels he’s sufficiently healed from a foot injury suffered in the third preseason game, so the Panthers’ offense should have some bite since he’ll be able to throw the ball downfield for a change. TE Greg Olson is also healthy, WR Curtis Samuel is expected to take a step forward and Christian McCaffrey emerged as one of the league’s best weapons, so Norv Turner has plenty to work with as he looks to match wits with Sean McVay.

The Rams gave Jared Goff $110 million guaranteed this past week, extending him in the hopes he’ll have more productive Super Bowls ahead of him. Todd Gurley, whose lack of involvement in the most recent NFL title game due to a knee injury was glaring, isn’t going to be on a pitch count as he attempts to pick up where he left off pre-injury. Carolina has won four of its past five season openers. The Rams went 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS) on the road last season.

Bengals at Seahawks (-9.5/44), 4:05 p.m. ET: With A.J. Green out for at least another month, the Bengals have had to install new head coach Zac Taylor’s offense with key receivers sidelined. The expectation is that they’ll unveil elements of his up-tempo offense that should feature backs Joe Mixon, Giovani Bernard and Samaje Perine. Undrafted rookie Damion Willis will fill in for Green opposite Tyler Boyd and top tackle Cordy Glenn could be sidelined with a concussion that would make an already unstable offensive line situation even worse.

Pete Carroll hasn’t gotten enough credit for rebuilding Seattle’s defense on the run the way he has, but they’ll be tested to start the season with games against the Steelers, Saints, Rams and Browns. We’ll see whether newcomers like Jadeveon Clowney, Ziggy Ansah, Al Woods and rookies L.J. Collier and Marquise Blair hit the ground running. Offensively, Russell Wilson has a new red-zone weapon in second-round pick D.K. Metcalf. The Seahawks have won 10 straight home openers, the last nine under Carroll, and have given up 16 or fewer points in all of them.

Colts at Chargers (-6.5/44.5), 4:05 p.m. ET: The Colts were just a three-point underdog when this line was released and Andrew Luck’s inclusion was still expected. After announcing his retirement, L.A. became a much heavier favorite despite the increasing likelihood that star RB Melvin Gordon wouldn’t be involved either. Still holding out and likely to be traded, Gordon will be absent as Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson try to replicate his production.

Indianapolis won’t find it as simple to replace Luck, although Jacoby Brissett has plenty of experience doing so after starting most of 2017. The Colts went 4-11 with him as the starter and saw him complete just two passes for two yards last season, but they’re hopeful that he can help salvage the season. Another former Pats backup, Brian Hoyer, will be the No. 2. The Chargers are 10-6 SU (6-10 ATS) at the Stub Hub Center, struggling to find a true homefield advantage in a building where opposing fans often outnumber those rooting for L.A. This will be the Colts’ first visit to this stadium after losing three of four in San Diego over the past 15 years.

49ers at Bucs (-1.5/50.5), 4:05 p.m. ET: Jimmy Garoppolo had a miserable preseason, both in games he played and in practices where he battled turnover issues. Coming off a torn ACL, he’s having trouble getting his timing back and could have a difficult time getting settled in if the Bucs are able to get after him as Todd Bowles debuts as Bruce Arians’ defensive coordinator. Rookie top pick Devin White debuts next to Lavonte David, who has been cleared to play after a knee issue.

Last year’s first-rounder, Vita Vea, also practiced in full. The 49ers will have center Weston Richburg available in addition to Joe Staley up front, but their defense could have issues in the back with Jimmie Ward (hand), Jason Verrett (ankle) and K’Waun Williams (knee) all questionable. No. 2 overall pick Nick Bosa is likely to debut as a third-down pass rusher despite being sidelined for weeks by a high ankle sprain. Since losing his first start, Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston has won three straight openers.

Lions (-2.5/46) at Cardinals, 4:25 p.m. ET: For months, we’ve heard all about the Cardinals working in secret to get top pick Kyler Murray up to speed running Kliff Kingsbury’s high-octane offense. Can a college offense flourish in the NFL? Unsurprisingly, Kingsbury didn’t divulge much during the preseason, putting together vanilla game plans and essentially hiding how far along Arizona really is in installing his concepts in Year 1 of a very interesting experiment. The Lions open their second season under former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, who has had months to decipher what might be coming in Glendale on Sunday by combing through Texas Tech and Oklahoma film. It’s certainly not ideal, but he should be prepared for what should be a chess match.

The Lions added Arizona training camp backup QB Charles Kanoff to their practice squad, hoping to seek further insight into what might be coming. Lions standout linebacker Jarrad Davis is questionable with an ankle injury while Arizona could be without LB Hassan Riddick. Cards’ right tackle Marcus Gilbert and Detroit center Frank Ragnow are expected to play through lower body injuries. If Matthew Stafford is coaxed into a shootout, he’ll be working against a secondary missing top corners Patrick Peterson (suspension) and Robert Alford (broken leg).

Giants at Cowboys (-7/45.5), 4:25 p.m. ET: Ezekiel Elliott probably won’t see his usual workload after just returning this week after signing a six-year $90 million extension, but he’ll start and is expected to have enough juice to help Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper fuel Dallas’ offense. Jason Witten is making his return to the NFL and Randall Cobb debuts. It remains to be seen how everything comes together since there hasn’t been much time devoted to working as a unit given Elliott’s holdout and Cooper’s heel injury. The Cowboys defense also has a few question with Robert Quinn suspended and Randy Gregory still not reinstated. New York will have Eli Manning at the controls for at least one more season opener as it looks to turn the page from the Odell era.

The Giants have dropped seven of their last eight openers and have dropped nine of 12 against the Cowboys, including four in succession. New York has won only one of its last six at AT&T Stadium, winning in Week 1 of 2016 thanks to a late TD pass from Manning to the now-retired Victor Cruz. We’ll see whether New York has solved its offensive line woes. It should help matters that new right tackle Mike Remmers (illness) is expected to play next to new right guard Kevin Zeitler.

Steelers at Patriots (-5.5/49.5), 8:20 p.m. ET: Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger will both be Hall of Famers and have eight Super Bowl wins between them but there’s an obvious pecking order that has really shone through in Foxboro. Although Pittsburgh won last season’s meeting in Week 15 last December, Brady has won all five games he’s played in against the Steelers at Gillette Stadium, throwing 18 touchdowns without being intercepted.

The 42-year-old Brady led New England to a 28-21 win over Pittsburgh in Week 1 of the ’15 season and has won three of his last four openers. He’ll have Demariyus Thomas as a target in addition to the recently reinstated Josh Gordon but Julian Edelman should remain his security blanket with Rob Gronkowski gone. Roethlisberger is expected to ride with Juju Smith-Schuster as his go-to with the trifling Antonio Brown causing headaches with the Raiders. With James Conner back, expect Pittsburgh to try and shorten the game by running the ball and attempting to control time of possession.

Brady should be able to excel through the air by picking on the fact the Steelers will have to start an inexperienced free safety in AAF product Kameron Kelly, who should start with Sean Davis unlikely to return from an ankle injury.

 

[Udog]

SNF - Steelers at Patriots
Matt Blunt

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Betting Odds: New England -5.5, Total 49

Last Five Head-to-Head Meetings:

Dec. 16, 2018 - Pittsburgh 17 vs. New England 10 (Steelers +2.5, Under 55.5)
Dec. 17, 2017 - New England 27 at Pittsburgh 24 (Patriots -2.5, Under 52.5)
Jan. 22, 2017 - New England 36 vs. Pittsburgh 17 (Patriots -6, Over 49.5)
Oct. 23, 2016 - New England 27 at Pittsburgh 16 (Patriots - 7, Under 49)
Sept. 10, 2015 - New England 28 vs. Pittsburgh 21 (Patriots -7, Under 51)

There might be some big names gone from what's become an annual game between the Steelers and Patriots on Sunday night, but that doesn't mean the first SNF game of the season won't be a good one. There won't be LeVeon Bell, Antonio Brown, or Rob Gronkowski involved on the field in this contest – the 5th straight year these two have met in the regular season – as it's a year of reloading and redefining their identity for both New England and Pittsburgh.

There is still plenty of talent on both sidelines, and in another year where both have their sights set on division titles and more accolades from there, owning the head-to-head tiebreaker could prove to be important by the time Santa is snooping around our chimneys. But we are a long ways away from that entering the conversation, as now it's all about whether or not the Patriots can win this game by about a TD.

With this year being the 100th anniversary of the NFL, the usual spot on TNF to open up a new campaign for the defending champs was pushed back to give the longest rivalry (Green Bay/Chicago) in the league the spotlight on opening night. And while that game wasn't all that aesthetically pleasing, it was expected given that starters on both sides had next to nothing in terms of preseason action and were working out plenty of kinks on TNF. That's something to keep in mind as you go through the entire Week 1 card, but for this SNF game we should get a much better overall brand of football.

Total Talk

History suggests that we will in the sense that over the past eight years, Week 1 SNF games are 6-2 O/U with an average of 48.25 points scored. One of those two 'unders' against the closing number came in the 2016 year when the Patriots opened up in Arizona on SNF with Jimmy Garoppolo under center while Brady served his suspension. There weren't many believers in the Patriots that day, but the 'under' also only came in by the hook, so there is a case to be made that these Week 1 prime time games tend to be a swoon for 'over' bettors.

That hasn't been the case according to the market this week as action has been hot and heavy on the 'under' for weeks now after this game originally opened up at 51.5. Obviously missing all those big name playmakers as “known” entities plays a part in that, but both franchises are likely looking for more of a defensive identity as it is.

Betting percentages currently show a strong 80+% of bets on this 'under' so far, and that historical average of 48.25 points for Week 1 SNF games would still cash an 'under' ticket at the current number. However, if you break down that set of eight games that have opened up the SNF season in the past to just the non-division matchups – remember, with the defending champs typically getting the TNF showcase, SNF was reserved for divisional rivalries, this year that's flipped – the O/U mark is 3-1 O/U with that lone being the Garoppolo start vs Arizona that lost by the hook. The Average points scored there clocks in at exactly 50 points per game, which puts this current line of 49 right in the cross hairs of history.

Side Spiel

Regarding the side, the spread has seen about a 55/45 split in favor of New England, as the number keeps bouncing around between -5.5 and -6. That type of two-way action is what oddsmakers prefer to see, and until we get to see what these revamped identities for both teams start to look like, it's hard to confidently side with either group in this spot.

Bettors on the Steelers side of things are looking at a possible “addition by subtraction” scenario this year with the distractions of Bell and Brown being gone, as the less off-field stuff that a football team has to answer to each week is never a bad thing. The Steelers seemed to survive on the field without Bell last year as they remain high on Conner and the rest of their RB core, but the production lost from Brown's departure will have to be made up somewhere, and that's a lot to put on the shoulders of young guys like JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Washington who find themselves in prominent roles this year.

From a Patriots backer perspective, relying on the known entity of the Brady/Belichick duo is a big part of why someone would lay these points, even with New England being a slow starter both SU and ATS traditionally these past few years. Brady's another year older at 42 years old, and with his security blanket in Gronk now retired, things will look a bit different. But it's not like Brady hasn't played well (or often) when the oft-injured Gronk wasn't on the field, and that could easily be the case for New England this season too.

The Patriots side also has the backing of history in terms of what defending champions have done the following year out of the gate, but Pittsburgh is a quality foe where six points does have the look of a number that could potentially be too high.

Final Feelings

Cases for and against each side are rather easy to make, and the ones for each side tend to lack conviction, so the spread is one that's probably best to pass on for the week. Openers of -5.5 tend to bring some indecision from an oddsmaking perspective as well in that that spread resides in no man's land and is placed with the intention of moving. The fact that this line has essentially stayed in that range for months suggests that there is plenty of indecision from an overall betting perspective too.

The total is one where I believe the better betting option lies, and while it is hard to ignore the respective move down, the 'over' between these two teams is where I'm going.

Both QB's are vets that have seen it all in this league, and with months of prep time already completed, the questions that bettors may have about new faces in prominent roles on both sides, is probably just flat out confidence from Brady and Roethlisberger's perspective. Getting to 50 points isn't a huge ask for these two teams, and given the initial negative feedback from TNF about it being a sloppy, non-entertaining game, I'm sure the NFL wouldn't mind to have it's next prime time showcase of the year turn into a back-and-forth shootout.

As long as the total stays below 50, 'over' should be the way to go.

Best Bet: Over 49 points

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 8
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


ATL at MIN 01:00 PM
ATL +3.5
U 47.0


LAR at CAR 01:00 PM
CAR +1.5
U 50.0


TEN at CLE 01:00 PM
TEN +5.5
O 45.0


KC at JAC 01:00 PM
JAC +3.5
O 51.0


WAS at PHI 01:00 PM
WAS +10.5
O 44.5


BUF at NYJ 01:00 PM
BUF +2.5
O 40.5


BAL at MIA 01:00 PM
BAL -7.0
U 40.0




BACK IN A FEW WITH AFTERNOON GAMES

 

[CNOTES]

LATE AFTERNOON GAMES;


CIN at SEA 04:05 PM
SEA -10.0
U 44.0


IND at LAC 04:05 PM
IND +6.5
O 44.5


SF at TB 04:25 PM
SF +1.0
U 51.0


NYG at DAL 04:25 PM
NYG +7.5
O 45.5


DET at ARI 04:25 PM
DET -2.5
U 46.0

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY NIGHT BEST BETS:


PIT at NE 08:20 PM


NE -5.5


U 49.0

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Today, Week 1
September 8, 2019
By The Associated Press


SCOREBOARD

Monday, Sept. 9


Houston at New Orleans, 7:10 p.m. The Texans have won three of the past four AFC South titles. J.J. Watt led the AFC with 16 sacks and had a career-high seven forced fumbles in 2018. Deshaun Watson had 4,165 yards and 26 TDs passing. The Saints were the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs in 2018, and lost to the L.A. Rams in the NFC title game marred by NFL-acknowledged officiating mistakes.


---


Denver at Oakland, 10:20 p.m. Joe Flacco makes his Denver debut as the Broncos head to Oakland for the final time in the regular season before the Raiders move to Las Vegas in 2020. The Raiders enter the game after a drama-filled week involving wide receiver Antonio Brown, who was released on Saturday and later signed with the New England Patriots.


---


STARS


Passing

- Lamar Jackson, Ravens, was 17 for 20 for 324 yards and five touchdown passes and a perfect 158.3 rating in Baltimore's 59-10 rout of Miami.


- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, finished 25 for 33 for 378 yards and three touchdowns in Kansas City's 40-26 win over Jacksonville.


- Dak Prescott, Cowboys, was 25 for 32 for 405 yards and a career high-tying four touchdown passes in Dallas' 35-17 win over the New York Giants. He also had a perfect passer rating.


- Carson Wentz, Eagles, was 28 for 39 for 313 yards and three touchdowns in Philadelphia's 32-27 win over Washington.


- Andy Dalton, Bengals, finished 35 for 51 for a career-high 418 yards and two touchdown passes in Cincinnati's 21-20 loss to Seattle.


- Matthew Stafford, Lions, was 27 for 45 for 385 yards and three touchdown passes in Detroit's 27-27 tie with Arizona.


- Case Keenum, Redskins, finished 30 for 44 for 380 yards and three touchdowns in Washington's 32-27 loss to Philadelphia.


---


Rushing


- Marlon Mack, Colts, had 25 carries for 174 yards and a touchdown in Indianapolis' 30-24 overtime loss to the L.A. Chargers.


- Christian McCaffrey, Panthers, had 19 carries for 128 yards and two touchdowns in Carolina's 30-27 loss to the L.A. Rams.


- Dalvin Cook, Vikings, finished with 21 carries for 111 yards and two touchdowns in Minnesota's 28-12 victory over Atlanta.


- Mark Ingram, Ravens, had 14 carries for 107 yards and two touchdowns in Baltimore's 59-10 win over Miami.


- Saquon Barkley, Giants, had 11 carries for 120 yards in New York's 35-17 loss to Dallas.


- Austin Ekeler, Chargers, had 12 carries for 58 yards and the winning touchdown in overtime, and added six receptions for 96 yards and two touchdowns as Los Angeles topped Indianapolis 30-24.


---


Receiving


- Sammy Watkins, Chiefs, had nine receptions for 198 yards and touchdowns of 68, 49 and 3 yards in Kansas City's 40-26 win over Jacksonville.


- DeSean Jackson, Eagles, finished with eight catches for 154 yards and two touchdowns in Philadelphia's 32-27 win over Washington. Jackson's touchdowns covered 51 and 53 yards and gave him 31 TDs of at least 50 yards in his career. Only Hall of Famer Jerry Rice had more at 36.


- Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, Ravens. First-round pick Brown had four catches for 147 yards and touchdowns of 47 and 83 yards, and Andrews had eight catches for 108 yards and a touchdown in Baltimore's 59-10 win over Miami.


- D.J. Chark, Jaguars, had four receptions for 146 yards and a touchdown in Jacksonville's 40-26 loss Kansas City.


- Terry McLaurin, Redskins, had five catches for 125 yards and a touchdown in Washington's 32-27 loss to Philadelphia.


- Michael Gallup, Cowboys, had seven catches for 158 yards in Dallas' 35-17 win over the N.Y. Giants.


- John Ross, Bengals, had seven catches for 158 yards and two touchdowns in Cincinnati's 21-20 loss to Seattle.


- Keenan Allen, Chargers, had eight catches for 123 yards and a touchdown in Los Angeles' 30-24 overtime win over Indianapolis.


- John Brown, Bills, had seven catches for 123 yards and a touchdown in Buffalo's 17-16 win over the Jets.


- Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, had eight catches for 113 yards and a touchdown in Arizona's 27-27 tie with Detroit. He surpassed Antonio Gates (116 TDs) for the sixth most in NFL history.


---


Special Teams


- Harrison Butker, Chiefs, was 4 for 4 on field goals and extra points in Kansas City's 40-26 win over Jacksonville.


- Zane Gonzalez, Cardinals, was 4 for 4 on field goals in Arizona's 27-27 tie with Detroit.


---


Defense


- C.J. Mosley and Jordan Jenkins, Jets. Mosley returned an interception 17 yards for a touchdown and Jenkins tackled Frank Gore in the end zone for a safety in a 17-16 loss to Buffalo.


- Cameron Wake and Malcolm Butler, Titans. Wake had 2+ sacks, including a safety, and Butler returned an interception 38 yards for touchdown in Tennessee's 43-13 win over Cleveland.


- Richard Sherman and Ahkello Witherspoon, 49ers. Sherman returned an interception 31 yards for a touchdown and Witherspoon returned an interception 25 yards for a touchdown in San Francisco's 31-17 win over Tampa Bay.


- Devon Kennard, Lions, had three sacks in Detroit's 27-27 tie with Arizona.


- Vernon Hargreaves, Buccaneers, returned an interception 15 yards for a touchdown in Tampa Bay's 31-17 loss to San Francisco.


---


MILESTONES


Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald became the franchise's leader in regular-season games played with 235. He broke the record set by kicker Jim Bakken. ... Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones became the second-fastest player to reach 700 receptions as he did it in his 112th game. ... The Jets' Le'Veon Bell became the fastest player in NFL history to get 8,000 yards from scrimmage for his career. He reached the milestone with a 5-yard run, his first carry for New York in the first quarter of his 63rd game. The 27-year-old Bell entered the game with 7,996 yards from scrimmage.


---


PURPLE REIGN


The Ravens blasted the Dolphins 59-10 and set several team records in the process. They set a franchise record for points in the first half, and an NFL record for points in the first half of an opener, taking a 42-10 lead at the break. They broke franchise marks for points and total yards with 643. Lamar Jackson tied a franchise record with five touchdowns passing. The Ravens have outscored the Dolphins 137-16 in three meetings since 2016.


---


STREAKS & STATS


DeSean Jackson caught two touchdown passes in the Eagles' 32-27 win over Washington. Those were his first regular-season receiving touchdowns with Philadelphia since Dec. 15, 2013. ... The Browns committed 18 penalties for 182 yards and lost to the Titans 43-13 and fell to 1-19-1 in openers since 1999. ... Panthers quarterback Cam Newton was held to a career-low minus-2 yards rushing in Carolina's 30-27 loss to the L.A. Rams. ... Indianapolis' Adam Vinatieri experienced something for the first time in his 24-year career: two missed field goals and a missed extra point in the same game in a 30-24 loss to the Chargers. It is the 18th time he has missed two or more field goals in a game. ... The Chargers' Ty Long became the first player since Miami's Olindo Mare in 1997 to have an extra point, field goal and punt in his first NFL game.


---


EJECTIONS


Three players were ejected from games on the opening Sunday. Browns starting left tackle Greg Robinson was disqualified for kicking Titans safety Kenny Vaccaro. The drama began at the end of a running play in the second quarter when Robinson was on the ground and delivered a blow with his leg to Vaccaro. ... Jaguars linebacker Myles Jack was ejected after taking a swing at Chiefs linebacker Demarcus Robinson. Jack had to be restrained by two team officials and essentially pulled off the field. Jack and receiver Sammy Watkins got into a shoving match after a play, and then Robinson came in and shoved Jack in the back. ... San Francisco linebacker Kwon Alexander was penalized 15 yards and dismissed for lowering his helmet to initiate contact on a hit to Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston as he was sliding after a 5-yard run. Alexander, who spent the past four seasons with the Buccaneers, was playing in his first game since signing with the 49ers as a free agent this year.


---


CITY OF BROTHERLY LOVE


Philadelphia 76ers forward Mike Scott was involved in a fight with Eagles fans while tailgating outside the stadium after he wore a Redskins jersey and hat to the party. Scott didn't appear to get injured in the video of the fight. He stuck around and took selfies, according to posts by other fans. Scott has become a popular player in the city for responding to invitations on social media and showing up to hang out with fans. He dropped in at wedding reception earlier in the summer.


---


SIDELINED


Nick Foles broke his left collarbone when Chris Jones hit him hard and landed on top of him as Foles threw a 35-yard touchdown pass to DJ Chark in the Jaguars' 40-26 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Foles will have surgery Monday. He is expected to be put on injured reserve, which would make him ineligible to play again until Week 11 at the earliest. It was one of two significant shoulder injuries in Jacksonville. The Chiefs lost star receiver Tyreek Hill after he landed on his shoulder in the first half, and Hill was taken to a hospital after the game for treatment. ... Jets linebacker C.J. Mosley, departed with a groin injury against the Bills, a key moment in Buffalo's rally to a 17-16 victory. The Jets also lost rookie defensive lineman Quinnen Williams, the No. 3 overall pick in the draft, with an ankle injury. Williams was in a walking boot after the game. ... Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield had his right X-rayed after Cleveland's season-opening 43-13 flop against Tennessee. The X-rays were negative and Mayfield, who left with his wrist heavily taped, said he would be ''all right.'' ... The Washington Redskins lost two defensive linemen, Jonathan Allen (left knee) and Caleb Brantley (right ankle), in their loss to the Eagles. Philadelphia defensive tackle Malik Jackson limped off the field in the fourth quarter and wore a walking boot after the game.


---


SPEAKING


''You all can crown them if you want to crown them. We still have to play football.'' - Titans tight end Delanie Walker, who had two touchdown receptions in his team's 43-13 rout of Cleveland which fizzled in its highly anticipated opener.


---


''I couldn't stay calm. I was overly excited like a kid before Christmas, knowing what I mean to the city and what the city means to me. I couldn't think of it being any other way,'' - Eagles receiver DeSean Jackson on playing his first game back in Philadelphia since former Eagles coach Chip Kelly cut him following his third Pro Bowl season in 2013.


---


''Not bad for a running back.'' - Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, who tied a franchise record with five touchdowns passing in Baltimore's 59-10 win over Miami.

 

[CNOTES]

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……

Eagles 30, Redskins 27:
— Washington led 20-7 at the half.
— Redskins threw 45 passes, ran ball only 13 times.
— Washington is 1-6 vs spread in last seven NFC East road games.


— Eagles had TD plays of 51-53 yards, both on 3rd and 10 passes.
— Philly converted 11-17 third down plays.
— Eagle offense in 2nd half: four drives, 43 plays, 272 yards, 25 points.


Bills 17, Jets 16:
— Buffalo’s first seven drives: 35 plays, 165 yards, outscored 8-0 by Jet defense.
— Buffalo’s last four drives: 28 plays, 220 yards, 17 points.
— 38-yard pass from Allen to Brown with 3:00 left was the game-winner.


— Jets were outgained 370-223; they averaged only 3.4 yards/pass attempt.
— Jets’ new kicker missed a PAT and a 45-yard FG.
— Not many teams are +3 in turnovers and lose; Jets had four takeaways (+3).


Vikings 28, Falcons 12:
— Atlanta turned ball over three times, was only 2-8 on third down.
— Falcons had punt blocked on first series, threw INT on second series.
— Last 2+ years, Atlanta is now 4-13 vs spread on road (1-7 as road dog).


— Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 23-7-1 vs spread as a HF, 17-2-1 outside NFC North.
— Minnesota threw only 10 passes the whole game; that doesn’t happen much.
— Vikings won/covered their last five home openers.


Ravens 59, Dolphins 10:
— Baltimore had ball 10 times, scored eight TD’s, kicked a FG.
— Jackson was 17-20/324 passing; he is 7-1 as an NFL starter.
— Ravens won last four Week 1 games by combined score of 139-20.


— Miami ran only 12 times for 21 yards; they were -3 in turnovers.
— Dolphins gave app 643 yards, were down 42-10 at halftime.
— 2020 NFL Draft begins April 23rd in Las Vegas.


Chiefs 40, Jaguars 26:
— McCoy carried ball 10 times for 81 yards in his KC debut.
— KC had a 14-yard advantage in starting field position.
— Five of KC’s seven plays of 20+ yards came on first down.


— Nick Foles broke his clavicle, is out indefinitely.
— Backup QB Minshew was 22-25/275 passing, with two TD’s.
— Both teams averaged 10+ yards/pass attempt, which doesn’t happen much.


Titans 43, Browns 13:
— Tennessee defense scored nine points, gave up only 13.
— Titans were +3 in turnovers (3-0), had 11-yard edge in field position.
— Tennessee won/covered six of last seven road openers.


— Cleveland were called for 18 penalties for 182 yards.
— Since re-joining NFL in 1999, Browns are 1-19-1 SU in Week 1
— Last 9+ years, Cleveland is 7-15-2 as a home favorite.


Rams 30, Panthers 27:
— 89 of Gurley’s 97 rushing yards came in second half.
— LA converted 9-17 third down plays.
— Rams had one punt blocked, another deflected; no bueno.


— McCaffery had 29 touches for 209 yards; their WR’s caught only 11 passes.
— Newton ran ball only three times, for minus-2 yards.
— First time in six years that Carolina lost its home opener.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL SEPT. OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS




DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


09/08/2019.....16-10-0.....61.54%.....+25.00
09/05/2019..... 1-1-0....... 50.00%.... -0.50




Totals..............17-11-0.... 50.00%..... +24.50




*****************************




BEST BETS:




DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


09/08/2019.............6 - 5............+2.50...............8 - 3..............+23.50...........+26.00
09/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.50...............1 - 0..............+5.00..............-0.50




Totals......................6 - 6............-3.00..............9 - 3 ..............+28.50..............+25.50

 

[CNOTES]

Books earn small Week 1 win
September 8, 2019
By Micah Roberts


Despite the perfect storm brewing in Nevada sportsbooks on Sunday’s NFL Week 1 action with the three most popular teams winning and covering the number early, the books got a few breaks with an overhyped favored squad losing at home outright, a popular two-team teaser crashing, a sweet backdoor cover for the house, and one of the lowest-rated teams coming from the dead to salvage a tie.

After all the results were posted from the first 12 games on Sunday, as usual, it came down to the Sunday Night Football game to decide their fate.

“Even though we took sharp action on the Steelers we give away half the day’s winning if the Patriots cover due to the large parlay risk accumulated on the day,” said MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback.”The Cardinals really eliminated a lot of risk for us.”

The Patriots rolled the Steelers 33-3 as 5 ½-point home favorites in wire-to-wire fashion.

Jay Kornegay of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook says the Cardinals are their second-worst rated team behind the Dolphins and they're barely just ahead of the Raiders. More on the Dolphins in a bit, but let’s talk about the biggest favorite of the week where the Eagles were -10 at home over the Redskins only to see quarterback Case Keenum catch fire and lead Washington to a 17-0 lead.

Philadelphia was a popular parlay and teaser play, and It’s likely a few disgruntled bettors threw their bets slips away early on. But the Eagles chopped away and not only took the lead in the second-half, but they also had the cover in line, 32-20, with just a few 3:18 remaining. It was gift cover and the roars throughout every book could be heard on the strip. But just as Eagles bettors were buying their celebratory gift-cover cocktail, Keenum struck again with 12 seconds left. Final score: Eagles 32-27.


“We were fortunate with the Redskins backdoor cover and getting then getting the Titans to win outright changed the trajectory of our day,” Stoneback said of the morning games after the most popular parlay teams of the Ravens, Rams, and Chiefs all got covers to go along with the Overs. That a nice six-bagger.

“Loads of liability rolling into the afternoon slate,” said Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick. “Thank goodness for the Titans win and Redskins backdoor or we’d be looking at a disaster.”

The Redskins seemed to be the gateway for most books to escape the public parlay from gaining too much momentum. That, and the Browns losing 43-13 at home to the Titans as 5 ½-point favorites. The Browns losing coupled with Seattle (-9) beating Cincinnati by only a 21-20 score knocked out any momentum from heavy teaser risk on the day.

“It was a nice backdoor for us on the spread, but we could have cleaned up on the larger Eagles money-line bets we took,” said Kornegay who had the Eagles -450 posted on the money-line.

When the Redskins scored the last touchdown, you can imagine the scene in any sportsbook where not many took the points with the heavy road underdog Washington.

“It was real quiet in the book (Mirage) when the Redskins scored with only a sound of a few moans,” Stoneback said.

Favorites went 4-3 against the spread in the early games with two underdogs (Titans, Bills) winning outright, but the 'dogs came back stronger in the afternoon going 3-1-1 ATS which helped negate the lone favorite winning.


The Cowboys looked impressive in their 35-17 home win as seven-point home favorites against the Giants. The trendy pick of the week was those making a case to take the points with the Giants, but Dallas quickly disposed of that notion.

The Chargers (-6) technically got a push in their 30-24 overtime win against the Colts in Carson, CA (no real home-field edge), but the game was once at -7 and -6 ½ for quite a while after Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck announced his retirement. It went from -3 ½ to -7 quickly. Despite future Hall of Fame kicker Adam Vinatieri missing two fields goals and an extra-point in a game for the first time in his career, QB Jacoby Brissett led the Colts to a late TD and 2-point conversion to send it into overtime, 24-24.

But the major turning point of the day for the house was the Cardinals (+3) coming back to score 18 unanswered points in the fourth quarter at home against the Lions who were up 24-6. Rookie QB Kyler Murray couldn’t get anything going and rookie head coach Kliff Kingsbury looked like a deer in headlights as his slick offense was looking like the walking dead.


The Lions went from pick’em to -3 (Even) by kickoff. The game ended in a 27-27 tie, but the Cardinals got the money and sent a sure 'under' ticket (46) to cash the high side. And the Cards offense actually looked very good in their final five possessions, four which resulted in scores.

The lowest rated team, the Dolphins, proved their preseason rating was way overrated. No team will be adjusted more than the Dolphins in the next week after they got blasted 59-10 by Baltimore at home while surrendering 643 total yards. Bettors knew the Dolphins were dirty rags as well and bet the Ravens at a 10-to-1 ratio at CG Technology books coming into the weekend. Between key players being traded, existing players wanting to be traded, and morale at an all-time low, I can’t ever remember the Browns being so lifeless when at their worst.


Miami opened +14 ½ at home to New England in Week 2 but that number is already creeping upwards.


But Kornegay cautioned.


"The biggest overreactions in the NFL by the public are always following Week 1, but yes, there's no doubt the Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL."

The Ravens will get to pick on the No. 2 worst rated team next Sunday in Week 2 as they’re -13 ½ at home against the Cardinals.


West Coast time zone teams traveling East for a 10:00 a.m. PT game doesn’t usually work out well, and the Cardinals will be having a rookie QB in his first road start. There are so many reasons to believe that the Ravens will have their way with their new pass-happy offense. But is it more about QB Lamar Jackson being improved or the Dolphins just being awful?


Something to ponder during the week with such a huge number!

 

[CNOTES]

MNF Doubleheader Essentials
September 9, 2019
By Tony Mejia


Texas at Saints (-6.5/52), 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN: .


The Saints take the field in a game that counts for the first time since being robbed in January’s NFC Championship game. Outside of losing running back Mark Ingram to the Ravens, a few veteran linemen retiring and a couple of defenders leaving via free agency, the team that should’ve been out there against the Patriots in Super Bowl XLIII returns intact. 40-year-old Drew Brees is aging like the finest of wines and returns to engineer an offense that scored 30 or more points in 10 of 16 games last season.


A great first test awaits with the Texans in town, especially since there’s a lot of variables in play since Houston’s most recent preseason game. The Texans upgraded their left tackle situation by adding Laremy Tunsil, unquestionably the Dolphins’ best player. They’ve addressed the unfortunate loss of Lamar Miller to a torn ACL and MCL in the “dress rehearsal” game by dealing for Duke Johnson and also added WR Kenny Stills to give Deshaun Watson four excellent threats at wideout. The addition of Tunsil to protect him is the game-changer, which sets the stage for the Texans to take the next step in emerging as Super Bowl contender.


Although they’ve won three AFC South titles in four seasons, a glance at NFL betting futures tells you how lightly regarded Houston is in terms of being a legitimate threat to win a championship. The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook hung 50-to-1 odds on the Texans to win a Super Bowl and have them at 25-to-1 to win the conference, which ranks seventh among AFC teams. Why their number would be placed behind the Jaguars and Ravens is debatable, but a case can be made that they’re among the most undervalued quality teams in the NFL. You can still get in on a projected win total of 8.5 that looks awfully appealing since Jacksonville has lost QB Nick Foles for a few weeks due to a broken clavicle and Andrew Luck’s retirement makes the Colts more vulnerable. Tennessee looked fantastic in destroying the Browns, but I’d still prefer Houston to win the division (7/4).


In visiting New Orleans, the Texans will test themselves against a team that is going to be favored in almost every game so long as Brees and top playmakers Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas stay healthy. Westgate set the Saints’ projected win total at 10.5 after last season’s 13-3 run and made them the overwhelming favorite to capture the NFC South (5/7). They’re listed as the NFC co-favorite at 5/1 alongside the Bears and Eagles and at 12/1, lagging only behind the Chiefs (5/1) and Patriots (6/1) in terms of Super Bowl odds.


Even if they’re unable to post an upset, simply testing themselves before the Jags come to town on Sunday with rookie backup Gardner Minshew at the controls in place of the injured Foles should prove beneficial for the Texans, who can look at this debut as a freeroll of sorts given how the schedule lays out. Because new pieces like Tunsil, Carols Hyde, Johnson and Stills all have to gel quickly, Houston comes into this one a substantial underdog, opening at plus-7 with some action dropping them to a 6.5-point ‘dog as of Sunday night. A moneyline wager would play out +240, which was the same figure the division-rival Colts were getting out in Carson in their eventual overtime loss to the Chargers. Watson played all 16 games in 2018 in coming back from an ACL tear and has mostly impressed thus far throughout his career. He’s twice lost duels with Tom Brady but has put together a number of record-setting performances and presided over Houston’s nine-game winning streak last season. He passed for at least 375 yards in three straight weeks and struck the right balance of taking off and running an hanging in the pocket despite a porous offensive line that contributed to him being sacked 62 times last season. Brees was only sacked 17 times despite only 16 fewer pass attempts, so think twice about partaking in any J.J. Watt sack props.


If Tunsil gives Watson the assistance he’s expected to provide and can keep the likes of Cam Jordan away from him on Monday, he’s definitely got weapons on the outside who can help Houston keep up with whatever pace the Saints set. DeAndre Hopkins is among the NFL’s top receiver, Keke Coutee can be a game-changer in the slot and Will Fuller and Stills can take advantage when teams are forced to play them one-on-one. The total here opened at 54 and has been bet down to 52. That figure was eclipsed in seven of the Saints’ 16 regular-season games but was surpassed just three times in contests involving the Texans.


Houston was 5-3 (3-3-2 ATS) on the road last season, while the Saints were 7-3 at the Superdome if you lump in their playoff results. New Orleans did fail to cover in any of their last four home games. DT Sheldon Rankins is still working his way back from an Achilles tear and will miss this game for New Orleans, who will also be without DE Mario Edwards (hamstring). LB Craig Robertson is questionable, which is the same designation shared by starting offensive linemen Greg Mancz (ankle) and Tytus Howard (finger), the Texans’ most recent first-round pick. Coutee (ankle) is also uncertain to play.


Brees’ Saints won both of their Monday night games last season, while the Texans won in their lone appearance, blowing out the Titans 34-17 to set a franchise record for consecutive wins. Houston is 2-2 against the Saints, winning the last meeting in 2015. The Texans are 0-2 in New Orleans.


Raiders at Broncos (-2.5/42), 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN:


Week 1 closes with a divisional matchup at Mile High as the Raiders begin their final season before moving to Las Vegas by putting a tumultuous training camp behind them.


Your late-night drinking game involves the serving of your choice whenever Antonio Brown is mentioned. Be careful or you won’t make it to halftime. Brown didn’t make it to the season opener, successfully getting himself waived after clashing with GM Mike Mayock and not doing his part to fit in with the team who envisioned him eclipsing QB Derek Carr as the face of the franchise prior to the team moving in behind Mandalay Bay next season.


Instead, Brown arrived with burnt feet, feuded with the NFL over its new helmet policy and never did get on the field during the preseason. Even his stint on HBO’s Hard Knocks left much to be desired, especially since shooting had wrapped by the time he had his confrontation with Mayock over fines incurred due to his protests. Brown apologized to the team and was expected to play on Monday but then went to social media with a strange video he put together himself and ultimately got his wish to go elsewhere. He signed with the New England Patriots in what is potentially the most impactful pickup we’ve seen over the last eight months.


Jon Gruden and the Raiders were left picking up the pieces and signed rookie Keelan Doss back off Jacksonville’s practice squad after reluctantly parting ways with the training camp standout on cutdown day. Carr’s go-to receiver now figure to be newcomer Tyrell Williams, rookie Hunter Renfrow and tight end Darren Waller. Another rookie, Alabama product Josh Jacobs, is likely to get a lot of carries alongside fourth-year backup DeAndre Washington and pass-catching threat Jalen Richard.


Uncertainty over Brown’s availability greatly affected this point spread. Oakland opened as a 2.5-point road favorite, dipped to a pick’em, became a 2.5-point ‘dog when it appeared that Brown would be suspended and then improved to plus-1 when Gruden announced he’d be starting and that his teammates had made him a captain. Since his release, the number returned to 2.5 and a total that opened at 43.5 had settled at 42.


The Raiders are extremely young. Gruden is still setting the foundation and securing personnel he wishes to take with him to Vegas, which means he’s willing to take some lumps. A handful of undrafted free agents made the team. The majority of the group has only been around a handful of years. Carr and free safety Lamarcus Joyner are the leaders, but there’s plenty of room for others to emerge. The defense added hard-hitting linebacker Vontaze Burfict from Cincinnati and will sign up for his aggressiveness to trickle down to the younger guys. First-round pick Jonathan Abram is a thumper with a nasty streak who will be looking to have an impact at strong safety, so the unit that coordinator Paul Guenther is trying to piece together will obviously have an edge to it.


Offensively, Gruden and veteran coordinator Greg Olson will be looking for playmakers to emerge and never accounted for Brown not being around to make life easier for everyone else. Considering the Broncos woke up on Saturday morning expecting to see him, their game plan now has to change on the run. New head coach Vic Fangio and defensive coordinator Ed Donatell have worked together on a couple of teams over the years and will look to help revitalize a unit that struggled under Vance Joseph after years of being considered among the NFL’s best due to the presence of playmakers like Von Miller, Derek Wolfe and CB Chris Harris, Jr.


Although LBs Brandon Marshall and Shane Ray and CBs Bradley Roby and Jamar Taylor signed elsewhere, there’s plenty for Fangio to work with key veterans back and emerging star Bradley Chubb coming off a 12-sack rookie season.


John Elway went out and signed QB Joe Flacco to try and help stabilize the offense with his arm and experience, but first-time NFL offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello is adamant that his attack will be run-based, centering on getting explosive young backs Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman the ball. Offseason tweaks like adding pass-catching back Theo Riddick and athletic tight end Jake Butt have both hit a snag due to unfortunate injuries, so the development of the team’s young backs and receivers like Courtland Sutton, DaeSean Hamilton, Tim Patrick and rookie Juwann Wifnree will dictate how effective Flacco can be early on.


Denver’s projected win total has been set at 7. Oakland’s total was set at 6 even before Brown’s departure, so now that their Super Bowl odds are 100/1, you should know not to tune in for a masterpiece in the nightcap of this MNF doubleheader. The Chiefs and Chargers are the AFC West’s heavyweights and the Broncos (14/1) Raiders (16/1) are longshots to win the division who will likely be vying to stay out of the cellar.


The teams split last season’s meetings, but Oakland has captured 11 of the last 15 against the Broncos. The ‘under’ has prevailed in seven of the last eight matchups, including the last five in succession. Denver inside linebacker Todd Davis (calf) is expected to miss the opener, so Fangio will have to get creative to fill that spot. Oakland lost starting guard Gabe Jackson (MCL) early in preseason and won’t have him back until October at the earliest. Projected fill-in Richie Incognito is suspended for the first two games, so Gruden will have to shore up that spot next to center Rodney Hudson, the league’s highest-paid player at his position.


The Broncos have won their last seven season openers and have started at least 2-0 six straight years. The Raiders were the last team to beat them in a Week 1, winning a 23-20 decision on a Monday night at Mile High in 2011. Gruden lost in his return to the sideline in last year’s season-opener, getting crushed 33-13 in the second half of an MNF twinbill similar to this one. Weather shouldn’t be a concern with light winds and temperatures in the 70s in the forecast.

 

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 1
Joe Williams


Overall Notes


National Football League Week 1 Results


Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-4-1
Against the Spread 6-7-1


Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 6-7-1
Against the Spread 3-10-1


Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-6


National Football League Year-to-Date Results


Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-4-1
Against the Spread 6-7-1


Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 6-7-1
Against the Spread 3-10-1


Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-6


The largest underdogs to win straight up
Titans (+5.5, ML +205) at Browns, 43-13
Bills (+3, ML +145) at Jets, 17-16
Packers (+3, ML +150) at Bears, 10-3


The largest favorite to cover
Cowboys (-7) vs. Giants, 35-17
Ravens (-7) at Dolphins, 59-10
Patriots (-6) vs. Steelers, 33-3
Vikings (-4) vs. Falcons, 28-12


Don't Believe the Hype


-- The Tennessee Titans (+5.5, ML +205) routed the Cleveland Browns, who entered the 2019 season with tremendous hype and expectations. About two hours into the season, that same ol' feeling was setting in on the shores of Lake Erie in what has been referred to as the 'Factory of Sadness'. It was a sad day for bettors, too, as the Browns had plenty of side bettors driving the line from 4 1/2 to 5 1/2 at one point. As Titans TE Delanie Walker said, borrowing a line from former NFL coach Dennis Green, "They are who we thought they were." The Browns will play on Monday Night Football on the road in Week 2 against the New York Jets, and one of those teams will leave the field next week with an 0-2 SU hole to start the season.


Nicked Up


-- The Jacksonville Jaguars landed big-ticket free agent QB Nick Foles during the offseason, but he was forced out early against the Kansas City Chiefs due to a broken collarbone, and he will be out indefinitely. So now the starting quarterback, perhaps just temporarily, will fall to rookie Gardner Minshew, who was a graduate transfer sensation for Mike Leach at Washington State last season. You can be sure some will be beating that Colin Kaepernick drum, too. They need something, as a season of promise has already changed in the course of three hours, after getting paddled by the Chiefs.


South Florida Fade


-- Back in the day, Dan Marino was lighting it up for the Miami Dolphins, while the Miami Hurricanes were running college football. These days, the Hurricanes are 0-2 SU/1-1 ATS and likely already eliminated from the College Football Playoff chase, while the Dolphins kicked off their season with a 59-10 ass beating from the Baltimore Ravens. Instead of calling their venue 'Hard Rock Stadium', it should be called 'Hard Pass'. If you're a sports fan in South Florida looking to stretch your dollar, you should likely be able to cheap seats very soon. Heck, you can even toss in the Florida Atlantic Owls and Florida International Golden Panthers, two more South Florida teams who are 0-2 SU.


The good news for bettors, at least as far as the Dolphins are concerned, is that they welcome the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots to Hard Pass...err, Hard Rock Stadium in Week 2. After the Pats spanked the Pittsburgh Steelers by a 33-3 count on Sunday Night Football, will we be looking at a potential 20-point favorite on the road by the time the game closes next week? The Patriots opened as 'just' a 14 1/2-point favorite after the Week 1 games on Sunday wrapped up.


Total Recall


-- The game with the highest total on the board Sunday was the San Francisco 49ers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (51) battle at Raymond James Stadium. With just 13 points on the board at halftime, 'under' bettors were feeling might confident. This game also featured four touchdowns called back due to penalty, which is certainly helpful.


Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston did his best to assist 'over' bettors, tossing not one, but two pick-sixes in this one. That was quite the change for the Niners, who recorded a total of two interceptions during the entire 2018 season. They picked off Winston three times total, including late in the game to make it 31-17, immediately giving the Bucs the ball back with just over two minutes to go. If you were holding an 'under' ticket, you got an eerie feeling that the Bucs were gonna score in garbage time and ruin a good things, as under bettors were on the right side all day. Luckily, the 49ers defense stepped up and kept disaster from happening.


-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Ravens-Dolphins (40.5) game. The Ravens scored 42 points themselves in the first half to send 'over' bettors into the black. The second-lowest total on the board was the Buffalo Bills-New York Jets (41.5) battle. The teams combined for a total of six points in the first half, too deep of a hole for 'over' bettors to overcome. There was a flurry of scoring in the seconf half -- 27 total points to be exact -- but the damage was already done early, including a scoreless second.


-- The 'under' is 2-0 in two primetime games so far during the 2019 regular season schedule, with the Monday Night Football doubleheader with the Houston Texans-New Orleans Saints (53.5) and Denver Broncos-Oakland Raiders (43) still pending. The 'over' is 0-2 (0.0%), during the early 2019 primetime schedule with two games still pending.


Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.


In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.


In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.


In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.


In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.


Injury Report


-- Chargers WR Mike Williams (knee) checked out of the Week 1 game against the Colts due to a knee ailment.


-- Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill (shoulder) was hospitalized after suffering a collarbone injury in Jacksonville. It has been determined that he will not require surgery, but Hill will miss a "few weeks," according to NFL.com.


-- Colts WR Devin Funchess (collarbone) will have a second opinion, but initial tests suggest a broken collarbone for the new Colts receiver.


-- 49ers RB Tevin Coleman (ankle) suffered an ankle injury in Tampa Bay, leaving head coach Kyle Shanahan "concerned".


-- Jaguars QB Nick Foles (collarbone/clavicle) suffered a fractured clavicle and will undergo surgery on Monday. It's uncertain if he is done for the entire season, but he'll miss significant time.


-- Steelers WR Juju Smith-Schuster (toe) suffered a toe injury late in the fourth quarter of Sunday's blowout loss in New England, and he is expected to undergo X-rays.


Looking Ahead


-- The Panthers will host the Buccaneers on Thursday night at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, a game featuring a pair of 0-1 SU/ATS teams. In this series the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings, with the road team 7-3 ATS in the past 10 in the series. The 'under' is also 5-1 in the past six battles, and 13-6 in the previous 19 encounters in the Queen City. Interestingly, something's gotta give with these two teams, as Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in their past five appearances on Thursday Night Football, while Carolina is 0-4 ATS in their past four on TNF.


-- The Cowboys and Redskins will meet in the nation's capital, and both clubs are playing their second divisional game in as many weeks. Dallas is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the previous five inside the NFC East. While Washington blew a 17-point lead in Philadelphia in Week 1, they were able to cover to improve to 1-4 ATS in the past five divisional games. The road team is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings, with the Cowboys 4-1 ATS in the past five trips to D.C. The underdog is 31-11 ATS in the past 42 in this series, too. If you're a total bettor, remember that the 'over' has cashed in six of the past seven meetings.


-- The Vikings and Packers lock horns in an NFC North early-season showdown. Someone is going to leave the field with a 2-0 SU record, too. The home team has cashed in five of the past six meetings in this series, with the Vikings just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 forays into Lambeau Field. The 'under' has also connected in seven of the past nine meetings. For Minnesota, the under is 22-7 in the past 29 inside the NFC North, while the under is a perfect 4-0 in the past four divisional games for Green Bay, including their 10-3 win in Week 1 at Chicago.


-- The Jaguars travel to Houston to meet the Texans. Jacksonville is just 1-5-1 ATS in the past seven on the road, and 1-5-1 ATS in the past seven inside the AFC South, too. Will the rookie Minshew turn their fortunes around? The Jaguars are 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight meetings, the road team is 11-4-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings and the underdog is 9-4 ATS in the previous 13 battles. The trends point to Jacksonville, but logic seems to point at Houston.


-- The Patriots travel to the heat and humidity of South Florida to take on the Dolphins. That might be the most difficult obstacle for New England. The Patriots are 19-8 ATS in their past 27 road games, and they're 6-2 ATS in the past eight inside the division. The Dolphins have posted a 6-1 ATS mark in the past seven at home against the Patriots, but that was with much more talented rosters. The home team is also 14-3 ATS in the past 17 in this series.


-- The Chiefs land in Oaktown to battle the Raiders. Kansas City is 13-4 ATS in the past 17 against AFC West foes, and they're 7-2-1 ATS in the past 10 on the road, including their Week 1 whitewashing of the Jags. The Raiders are just 5-11 ATS in their past 16 home battles against the Chiefs, and the 'over' is 5-1 in the past six in the Black Hole.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Week 2 odds are up, and Saints-Rams could be heaviest-bet game on docket
Patrick Everson


Todd Gurley and Los Angeles opened their NFC title defense with a win and cover at Carolina. The Rams opened as 3-point home favorites in Week 2 vs. the Saints, a rematch of the NFC title game.


There’s still a “Monday Night Football” doubleheader to close NFL Week 1, but the Week 2 numbers are up, topped by the line for an NFC Championship Game rematch. Covers checks in on the opening odds and early action for four games, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.


New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-3)


Los Angeles fended off a comeback to open defense of its NFC title with a season-opening victory Sunday. The Rams (1-0 SU and ATS) led by 13 points multiple times, including 23-10 late in the third quarter, then held on for a 30-27 win as 1.5-point road favorites.


New Orleans still has Week 1 work to do, opening the Monday twinbill at home against Houston. But the Saints surely recall the last time they were on the field for a meaningful game, in January’s NFC Championship Game. Drew Brees and Co. were 3-point home favorites to the Rams, got the short end of a now infamous noncall of pass interference and lost 26-23 in overtime.


“NFC Championship Game rematch could be the most heavily bet game of the day,” Murray said of a key clash on the Sunday docket. “There’s no reason to move off -3 here yet. The Rams took care of business. The Saints in action Monday night.”


Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-3)


Tennessee got it done in Week 1 against a team that arguably received more offseason hype than any other outfit. The Titans (1-0 SU and ATS) gave up an early touchdown at Cleveland, but ended up leading much of the game and ran away in the second half for a 43-13 win as 5.5-point underdogs.


Indianapolis, without the recently retired Andrew Luck at quarterback, perhaps showed it will not be a pushover this season. On Sunday against the Chargers, Jacoby Brissett led the Colts (0-1 SU, 0-0-1 ATS) to a touchdown and 2-point conversion in the final minute to tie the game at 24, but Indy fell short in overtime 30-24 catching 6 points in Los Angeles.


“We opened Titans -3 and moved to Titans -3 (-120) off action we took on that side,” Murray said. “Both teams impressed today, the Titans with a great win in Cleveland, the Colts really hung in there on the road against the Chargers. Indianapolis might have won with a better kicking game.”


Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)


Seattle travels across the country for one of next Sunday’s early kickoffs, after barely hanging on as big home chalk in Week 1. The Seahawks (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) went back-and-forth with Cincinnati on Sunday, eking out a 21-20 victory as 9.5-point faves.


Pittsburgh missed the playoffs last season, then opened the 2019-20 campaign against the defending Super Bowl champions. Under the Sunday night lights, the Steelers () wilted in a 33-3 loss at New England getting 5.5 points.


“We opened Steelers -4.5, but it’s off the board, as they are currently getting throttled by the Patriots,” Murray said while Pittsburgh-New England game was in the fourth quarter. “We may see this line come down a little between now and Monday morning, although the Seahawks’ performance today wasn’t anything special either.”


Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3)


Green Bay is already off to a good start in the NFC North as it prepares for another big rivalry game. The Packers (1-0 SU and ATS) put the clamps on Chicago in a Week 1 defensive slugfest, posting a 10-3 victory as 3.5-point road ‘dogs.


Minnesota, which reached the NFC title game two seasons ago but missed the postseason last year, stormed out of the gate in Week 1. The Vikings (1-0 SU and ATS) built a 21-0 halftime lead against Atlanta and coasted to a 28-12 victory giving 3.5 points at home Sunday.


“Great win for the Vikings over the Falcons. Only 10 passing attempts from Kirk Cousins,” Murray said. “The Vikings are clearly looking to establish the run. They’ll need to move it on the ground effectively against what appears to be an improved Packers defense.”


The line opened -3 but at even money for the Pack, then briefly ticked to -2.5 (-120) before going back to the opener.

 

[CNOTES]

SORRY FOR THE LATE POST WAS STUCK IN TRAFFIC.....BUT THIS IS WHAT I WENT WITH...




MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 9
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


HOU at NO
HOU +6.5
O 52.5


DEN at OAK 10:20 PM
DEN -2.0
U 42.5

 

[CNOTES]

Watt criticizes Texans defense after opening loss
September 10, 2019
By The Associated Press


NEW ORLEANS (AP) Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans appeared poised several times to open the season with a victory over the favored New Orleans Saints in the Superdome.


J.J. Watt laid the blame on the defense for letting it get away.


Houston led 14-3 at halftime, 21-10 in the third quarter and 28-27 with 37 seconds left, only to let the Saints pull out a dramatic victory on a last-second field goal.


Watson had turned in a memorable performance, and his third touchdown pass gave the Texans a last-minute lead. But Drew Brees completed three straight passes and Wil Lutz drilled a 58-yard kick as time ran out to hand Houston a frustrating 30-28 loss.


''That's on us,'' Watt said of the Texans defense. ''There's a lot of things that are on us. To hold them to three points in the first half and then give up 27 in the second, that's just terrible. And for our offense to give us the lead with 40 seconds left, or whatever it was, and not win the game, we'll take 100 percent of that blame, as we should.''


The Saints scored touchdowns on their first three possessions of the second half, punted only once after the break and added two field goals in the final minute.


Lutz's winning kick spoiled a huge night from Watson, who ran for a 21-yard touchdown on a fourth-down play and completed 20 of 30 passes for 268 yards. His final two passes were perfect strikes to DeAndre Hopkins for 38 yards and former Saints receiver Kenny Stills on a 37-yard post pattern as the Texans went 75 yards in 13 seconds to take one last late lead.


''As long as we can keep it within range, we are in every game, and that's what Deshaun Watson gives us,'' Texans coach Bill O'Brien said. ''He's a great player, he's competitive, he's calm and he's poised. He's got all that.''


Hopkins had eight catches for 111 yards and two touchdowns.


The Texans also ran for 180 yards, more than the Saints allowed in any game last season. Carlos Hyde, picked up in a trade with the Kansas City Chiefs at the end of August, had 83 yards on 10 carries.


It wasn't quite enough in New Orleans.


''Every loss is tough,'' Watson said. ''Getting blown out, losing by 14 or losing on a last-second field goal is very tough. That's football. You've got to give that kicker props. He did a great job for them.''


Converting six consecutive third downs, Houston scored touchdowns on three consecutive drives spanning the end of the first half and the start of the third quarter. The streak ended when Saints safety Marcus Williams intercepted Watson's lofted pass down the sideline for William Fuller.


The Texans gave up four sacks on their next two possessions, leading to punts.


''We have to shore some things up,'' O'Brien said. ''They got us on a couple of blitzes. We did block them at times, but we have to block them more consistently and the ball has to come out a little quicker at times.''


Watt did not want to hear anything about the offense's shortcomings. Double-teamed constantly, the three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year did not have a tackle or an assist for only the second time in his nine-year NFL career.


''It's very frustrating, but that's something you have to deal with when you're in the position I'm in,'' he said. ''You've got to find a way to get there, and tonight I didn't. I take that on me. We'll feel the emotions of this for 24 hours, then we'll move on to Jacksonville, but right now it does hurt.''




************************************




Carr, Jacobs lead Raiders past Flacco, Broncos 24-16
September 10, 2019
By The Associated Press


OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) ��� Derek Carr threw a touchdown pass on the opening drive of the season, rookie Josh Jacobs ran for two scores and the Oakland Raiders responded to a tumultuous week surrounding former receiver Antonio Brown by beating the Denver Broncos 24-16 on Monday night.


The Raiders (1-0) took out all the frustration over the drama surrounding Brown with a convincing win over the AFC West rival Broncos (0-1). The offensive line cleared holes for Jacobs and protected Carr, and the defense harassed Joe Flacco into three sacks and kept Denver out of the end zone until 2:15 remained in the game.


The win spoiled the Denver debuts for Flacco and coach Vic Fangio and ended the NFL's longest opening weekend winning streak at seven games.


The Raiders took the opening kickoff and marched 75 yards in 10 plays. Carr completed all five passes to four receivers, capped by an 8-yard TD to Tyrell Williams.


Oakland added another score in the second quarter when Jacobs capped a 95-yard drive with a 2-yard run to make it 14-0. Jacobs scored again in the fourth quarter, becoming the first Raider to run for two TDs in his debut.


Carr completed 22 of 26 passes for 259 yards and wasn't sacked once after going down 51 times last year. Jacobs had 23 carries for 85 yards and a 28-yard reception. Wiliams had six catches for 105 yards, including a game-sealing 10-yard catch on third down after the two-minute warning.


Flacco was 21 for 31 for 268 yards with a 1-yard TD pass to Emmanuel Sanders in Sanders' first game back from a ruptured Achilles' tendon.


SAINTS 30, TEXANS 28


NEW ORLEANS (AP) Wil Lutz made a 58-yard field goal as time expired to lift New Orleans over Houston in game that had three scoring plays in the final minute.


Deshaun Watson threw a 37-yard touchdown pass to former Saints receiver Kenny Stills with 37 seconds left, capping a two-play, 75-yard drive that put the Texans in front after they began their final possession down by six with 50 seconds left.


But there was just enough time remaining for Saints quarterback Drew Brees, who capped a 370-yard, two-touchdown performance by completing a 15-yard pass to Tedd Ginn Jr, an 11-yarder to Michael Thomas and another pass to Ginn for 9 yards in quick succession. That allowed New Orleans to save its final timeout until just 2 seconds remained and set up Lutz's game-winning boot.


The 40-year-old Brees completed 32 of 43 passes. He threw one interception deep in Houston territory in the first half that could have proved costly, but did enough to make up for it.


Watson completed 20 of 30 passes for 268 yards and three touchdowns - two of them to DeAndre Hopkins - and also ran for a 21-yard score on a fourth-down play.

 

[CNOTES]

WEEK 2


Thursday, September 12, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:20 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers Carolina Panthers


***************************


Sunday, September 15, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Arizona Cardinals Baltimore Ravens
1:00 PM San Francisco 49ers Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM Los Angeles Chargers Detroit Lions
1:00 PM Minnesota Vikings Green Bay Packers
1:00 PM Jacksonville Jaguars Houston Texans
1:00 PM New England Patriots Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM Buffalo Bills New York Giants
1:00 PM Seattle Seahawks Pittsburgh Steelers
1:00 PM Indianapolis Colts Tennessee Titans
1:00 PM Dallas Cowboys Washington Redskins
4:05 PM Kansas City Chiefs Oakland Raiders
4:25 PM Chicago Bears Denver Broncos
4:25 PM New Orleans Saints Los Angeles Rams
8:20 PM Philadelphia Eagles Atlanta Falcons


*******************************


Monday, September 16, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Cleveland Browns New York Jets




************************************************




NFL SEPT. OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS




DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


09/09/2019.......3-1-0......75.00%........+9.50
09/08/2019.....16-10-0.....61.54%........+25.00
09/05/2019..... 1-1-0....... 50.00%....... -0.50




Totals..............20-12-0.... 62.50%....... +34.00




*****************************




BEST BETS:




DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


09/09/2019.............1 - 1.............-0.50...............2 - 0..............+10.00............+9.50
09/08/2019.............6 - 5............+2.50...............8 - 3..............+23.50...........+26.00
09/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.50...............1 - 0..............+5.00..............-0.50




Totals......................7 - 7............-3.50.............11 - 3 ..............+38.50.............+35.00

 

[CNOTES]

Tuesday’s 6-pack


Six interesting pointspreads for this week’s college football:


— Washington State (-7.5) @ Houston


— NC State (-7) @ West Virginia


— Air Force @ Colorado (-3.5)


— USC (-4.5) @ BYU


— Iowa (-1.5) @ Iowa State


— Arizona State @ Michigan State (-13.5)

Quote of the Day
“The scary thing for Atlanta wasn’t in the score in Minnesota, though that wasn’t good. It was that the offensive line, after massive offseason investments there, wasn’t better. Matt Ryan was sacked four times. And if you take away two 12-yard Ryan scrambles, the Falcons rushed for just 49 yards on 15 carries. Which obviously isn’t good enough”
Albert Breer


Tuesday’s quiz
How many NFL teams share their stadium with a major league baseball team?


Monday’s quiz
Matt Prater holds record for the longest field goal in NFL history, a 64-yarder in 2013.

Sunday’s quiz
Sam Elliott played Bradley Cooper’s brother in A Star is Born.


********************


Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) Last 10 years, NFL teams that won by 28+ points in Week 1 are 1-10 vs spread in Week 2.


NFL teams that lost by 28+ points in Week 1 are 7-3-1 vs spread in Week 2.


12) Gardner Minshew is Jacksonville’s new starting QB; he has an interesting story:


— Minshew was at Troy State for a semester but transferred to Northwest Mississippi CC.
— He led Northwest Mississippi to the 2015 NJCAA national championship, then moved on to play ball at East Carolina.
— He split playing time in two years at ECU, then was going to transfer to Alabama for his last year, sit on the bench in hopes of learning under Nick Saban and becoming a coach someday.


— But he transferred to Washington State instead, because they needed a QB last year, and he lit the Pac-12 up under coach Mike Leach.
— He threw 50+ passes in 10 of his 13 starts at Wazzu, was Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year .
— Now he is Jacksonville’s starting QB. He’ll be able to write a great book someday.


11) Last four years in the NFL, the teams that played on Thursday night in Week 1 have covered seven of eight games in Week 2. This year, that would be Green Bay/Chicago.


10) If you’re an Arizona Cardinal fan, 4th quarter of Sunday’s game with Detroit had to be very exciting, with Kyler Murray leading a comeback from down 24-6 to force OT.


First three quarters were ugly; it will be interesting to follow them this season. Once they play some games and that offense is on film more, will defenses find it easier to stop them?


9) 49ers intercepted three passes at Tampa Bay Sunday; they picked off two passes all of last season.


8) Strange fact of the day:


Odell Beckham Jr wore a watch while he played Sunday; the watch is a Richard Mille 011 Orange Storm, which sold for $160,000 when it was first produced in 2014, but is supposed to be worth as much as $340,000 now- only 30 of them were made.


7) Saints 30, Texans 28:
— Houston led 14-3 at the half but allowed 27 points in 2nd half.
— Watson threw for 268 yards, ran for 40 more but took some big hits.
— Game went over the total despite a scoreless first quarter.


— Lutz kicked a 58-yard FG at the gun for the dramatic win.
— Total yardage was 510-414; Brees threw ball for 370 yards.
— Thomas, Ginn both had 100+ receiving yards.


6) Raiders 24, Broncos 16
— ESPN should make Levy-Greise-Riddick the regular Monday night broadcast team; they’re very good.
— Down 21-6 with around 8:00 left, Denver kicked a field goal that didn’t help them at all.
— David Carr had a very big game; completed 22-26 passes.


5) Jacksonville traded a 5th-round draft pick to the Steelers for QB Josh Dobbs, who will back up Gardner Minshew. Dobbs was a 2-year starter in college at Tennessee.


4) Lynn Swann resigned as USC’s athletic director; would be nice if the school hired someone to be AD who didn’t play football for the Trojans- their last three athletic directors were Mike Garrett, Pat Haden and Swann.


3) Since August 1st, Cardinals’ P Jack Flaherty has allowed three earned runs in 54 IP.


2) San Francisco Giants are 69-75 in Bruce Bochy’s last season as manager, but a word of caution— the Giants have the best record in baseball (33-15) in one-run games, meaning they’re likely to regress some next year, especially with a new (and probably lesser) manager in 2020.


1) Red Sox fired Dave Dombrowski the year after they won the World Series; seriously?


Is there no loyalty left in the world? Unless he was showing up to work drunk, how do you fire a guy whose Boston teams finished first three of his four years there, and still has an outside shot at making the playoffs this year?


Lot of internal politics in professional sports, lot of back stabbing.

 

[CNOTES]

Close Calls - Week 1
September 10, 2019
By Joe Nelson


Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in Week 1 of the NFL regular season.


Philadelphia Eagles (-10) 32, Washington Redskins 27 (44): Case Keenum hit several big plays early in his Washington debut as the Redskins stunned the Eagles with a 17-0 lead 20 minutes into the game and held on to a 20-7 edge at halftime. Philadelphia erased that lead in a three-minute span in the third quarter with back-to-back scores to lead by one heading into the fourth. The Eagles kept the momentum with an early fourth quarter touchdown and then a field goal with about three minutes remaining put the Eagles past the heavy home favorite spread for the first time in the game leading by 12. Having punted on its first three possessions of the second half with a total of five yards gained, Washington put together a 16-play, 75-yard drive that ended with an underdog cover saving touchdown with six seconds on the clock.


Buffalo Bills (+2½) 17, New York Jets 16 (41): The Jets took the lead early on an interception return touchdown but missed the PAT and that was the only scoring of the first half with Josh Allen having four turnovers for the Bills. The Jets led 8-0 after a safety on Buffalo’s first offensive snap of the third quarter and with good field position they added a touchdown to lead 16-0. Buffalo finally answered with a field goal and then in the fourth quarter produced an impressive touchdown drive to trail by only six with about 10 minutes to go. The Jets picked up a first down, but opted to punt short of midfield rather than risk going for it on 4th-and-2. Allen led an 8-play, 80-yard touchdown in just three minutes as the Bills took a 17-16 lead with about three minutes to go. The Jets got close to midfield on its next drive but couldn’t convert for a one-point loss in a game where new kicker Kaare Vedvik missed two kicks.


Tennessee Titans (+5½) 43, Cleveland Browns 13 (44): The Browns crept back in this game with a touchdown to trail by only two late in the third quarter but a 75-yard touchdown followed to put the Titans in commanding position leading 22-13 through three quarters. Those on the ‘under’ still had some room to work with but back-to-back Baker Mayfield interceptions handed the Titans short fields and Tennessee scored quickly on drives of only 35 and 34 yards to push the total ‘over’, eventually adding a Malcolm Butler pick-6 later in the game for good measure to create the blowout 30-point final margin.


Arizona Cardinals (+3) 27, Detroit Lions 27 (48½): Laying just a few points against 2018’s worst NFL team seemed too good to be true, but the Lions got out to a 17-0 edge in the second quarter and after the defense held Arizona to a pair of field goals, wound up in front 24-6 early in the fourth quarter. Zane Gonzalez added a field goal to trim the margin to 15 points and Detroit had a 3-and-out. Kyler Murray then led his first NFL touchdown drive with David Johnson going in from 27 yards and the Cardinals were within a single score with six minutes to go. Detroit should have been able to put the game away, but Arizona exhausted its timeouts and ultimately the Lions had to punt from midfield, with a poor effort going only 11 yards.


With a short field, Arizona was able to work its way down the field and Murray again delivered a touchdown as well as a two-point conversion to tie the game. Arizona went first in overtime and reached the Detroit 8-yard-line but had to settle for a short field goal. The Lions likewise couldn’t get through to the end zone and tied the game at 27-27. Arizona faced a dilemma on 4th-and-7 from the Detroit 46 with the risky options to try an extremely long field goal or go for the 1st down both likely to hand the game to the Lions if they failed. The Cardinals played for the tie and punted to the Detroit 5-yard-line where the Lions didn’t offer much of a threat to deliver a miracle late score.


Los Angeles Chargers (-6½) 30, Indianapolis Colts 24 (44½): Side and total results faced a dramatic finish in the battle of 2018 AFC playoff teams. The Chargers had a 17-6 lead at halftime after Adam Vinatieri missed a PAT and a field goal to cost the Colts. He hit for three on the first drive of the third quarter, but the Chargers answered with a touchdown to lead by 15. In two plays, the Colts answered back to get back within a single score down eight, just short of a spread that bounced between 7 and 6½ before even sliding to just 6 at some outlets by kickoff. The Colts got the break they needed late in the third quarter with a muffed punt return catch, but Vinatieri would miss again from just 29 yards early in the fourth to keep the margin at eight.


The Chargers moved to 1st-and-goal with a chance to put the game away, but an interception in the end zone gave the Colts new life. Sixteen plays later, the Colts found the end zone while converting a 4th down along the way. The two-point conversion with less than a minute on the clock could have ended the spread uncertainty, but Marlon Mack got through and tied the game to force overtime. The Chargers got the ball first and hit a big early play that withstood review. On 3rd-and-1, the Colts needed a stop to stay in the game, but the Chargers converted and ran into the end zone on the next play. With no PAT needed in OT, most on the Colts still covered while the late Indianapolis touchdown secured the ‘over’ as well.


New Orleans Saints (-6½) 30, Houston Texans 28 (51½): With a 14-3 halftime lead, the Texans underdog cover appeared on track on a line that dipped from +7 to +6½. New Orleans scored quickly out of halftime, but the Texans were able to answer to maintain an 11-point lead. A late third quarter touchdown put the Saints down by four and a few plays later Deshaun Watson was intercepted giving the Saints the ball back near midfield. On the first play of the fourth quarter, the Saints took their first lead by three. Both teams had to punt before Houston appeared to climb into scoring range reaching the New Orleans 44. Watson took an 11-yard sack and Houston had to punt. Pinned deep the Saints got 41 yards on a huge 3rd-and-2 play and eventually had a new set of downs on the 33-yard-line of Houston, with those on the Saints and the ‘over’ eagerly awaiting a score.


Houston’s defense held leaving the Saints to kick a field goal with 50 seconds left, leading by only six. Watson needed only two plays to find the end zone with completions for 48 and 37 yards as the Texans stunned the Superdome crowd. The game was tied ahead of the PAT which Ka’imi Fairbarin incredibly missed right, a controversial flag came out as Fairbairn was contacted well after his kicking leg came back down and on the retry Houston went up by one to take overtime out of the picture and confirm the underdog cover. New Orleans would use the final 37 seconds to go 35 yards and Will Lutz came through with a 58-yard field goal for a dramatic win for the Saints.