Cnotes 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

[Udog]

Super Bowl Betting Trends & Angles

Super Bowl LIV between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will be the 54th installment of the big game on Sunday, Feb. 2, 2020 from Miami Gardens, Florida

Before you start handicapping the matchup and prop wagers, you should check 54 betting angles and trends that our staff have uncovered for this year’s Super Bowl.

1 – Patrick Mahomes is the first QB from a Big 12 school to start a Super Bowl. Also, Mahomes is the first QB from a Texas university (Texas Tech) to start a Super Bowl.

2 – Twice in Super Bowl history a team has been held without a touchdown. The Dolphins (Super Bowl VI) and Rams (Super Bowl LIII) each scored exactly three points in losses, but no team has ever been shut out in the Super Bowl.

3 – Three times an AFC West team has been listed as a favorite in the Super Bowl and has lost outright. The Broncos twice (Super Bowl XXII and XLVIII) and Raiders (Super Bowl XXVII). Those teams lost by 35, 27, and 32 in those defeats.

4 – The last four Super Bowls played in an outdoor stadium have seen the underdog cash, including three outright wins. The Broncos (L), Seahawks (XLVIII), and Saints (XLIV) each grabbed the victory in the underdog role in these contests played in a non-domed stadium.

5 – The 49ers have won five Super Bowl titles in franchise history. A victory against the Chiefs would tie the Patriots and Steelers for the most Super Bowl titles (6) in NFL history.

6 – There have only been six instances where the favorite won the game straight up but failed to cover the number. Those outcomes occurred in 2009, 2005, 2004, 1996, 1989 and 1976. The 2005 classic (See 39 below) featured the Eagles, who were coached the current boss in KC – Andy Reid.

7 – The 49ers are playing in their seventh Super Bowl in franchise history. San Francisco has won five of its first six Super Bowls, but are listed in the underdog role for the first time.

8 – The Chiefs had eight games with a total of 50 or higher. Kansas City cashed the ‘over’ five times in those contests, with only one coming away from Arrowhead Stadium at Detroit in a 34-30 win in Week 4.

9 – This will be the ninth Super Bowl television broadcast produced by FOX and the sixth for the announcing team of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman. In the first eight Super Bowls on the network, the AFC-NFC and Favorite-Underdog results have split at 4-4 while the ‘over’ is 5-3.

10 – There have been 10 Super Bowls played in Miami and San Francisco has played in two of them – beating Cincinnati 20-16 in 1989 (XXIII) before routing San Diego 49-26 in 1995 (XXIX).

11 – This is the 11th Super Bowl with a total of 50 or higher. The ‘under’ has cashed in seven of the 10 Super Bowls involving a total of 50 or more, including last season’s 13-3 win by New England over Los Angeles on a 56 total.

12 – Kansas City stunned Minnesota 23-7 in Super Bowl IV, winning outright as a 12-point underdog. Double-digit underdogs have gone 5-9 straight up in the NFL finale but we haven’t seen a spread this high since 2008 when the Giants stunned the Patriots 17-14 in SB XLII.

13 – The 49ers played four games in the Eastern Time Zone this season and the defense traveled well, surrendering 13.5 points per game (PPG) while going 3-1. The lone loss was a 20-17 decision at Baltimore in Week 13. Kansas City went 3-0 when traveling East and it averaged 32.3 PPG.

14 – Amount of touchdown passes Mahomes has thrown against NFC West opponents in his career. Three of those 14 touchdowns came against San Francisco in a 38-27 home victory in 2018.

15 – Only one player has won the Super Bowl MVP wearing the jersey number 15, which was Packers’ quarterback Bart Starr in each of the first two Super Bowl victories. Mahomes is the favorite to capture the award at DraftKings (IN, NJ & PA only).

16 – The fewest combined points scored in a Super Bowl was 16, which came last season when the Patriots beat the Rams, 13-3. The previous low was 21 points posted in Super Bowl VII when Miami edged Washington, 14-7.

17 – The Chiefs are making their third Super Bowl appearance. This marks the 17th time in Super Bowl history a team is making its third appearance in the big game. The first 16 teams posted an 8-8 record in their third Super Bowl affair with the Eagles being the most recent team in this situation, beating the Patriots in Super Bowl LII.

18 – Kansas City head coach Andy Reid has gone 18-3 in the regular season following a ‘bye’ week and when playing with rest in the playoffs, he’s produced a 4-2 mark with rest. Kyle Shanahan has gone 2-2 with the 49ers when playing with rest, both wins coming this season.

19 – In Super Bowl history, 19 times the winning team has scored between 30 and 39 points. The only point total that has not been posted by a winning team in the history of this game is 36.

20 – The most combined penalties called in a Super Bowl was 20, which happened twice in 52 games. Dallas and Denver did so in Super Bowl XII and the Patriots and Panthers followed suit in SBXXXVIII.

21 – Super Bowl teams that fail to score 21 points in the Super Bowl are 2-23 SU and 4-20-1 ATS. The two winners that failed to eclipse the 21-point plateau were the N.Y. Giants, who beat the Patriots 17-14 in SBXLII, while New England held off Los Angeles in SBLIII, 13-3.

22 – The Chiefs have allowed an average of 22.2 points per game in nine playoff contests coached by Andy Reid, while yielding 20 points or more six times.

23 – Kansas City have scored at least 30 points in 23 games since Mahomes became the starting quarterback in 2018. The Chiefs are averaging 34 points per game in 16 games played away from Arrowhead Stadium with Mahomes under center.

24 – In Super Bowl 31, the Patriots led the Packers 14-10 after the first quarter and that’s the most combined points (24) scored in the first 15 minutes of the finale.

25 – The 'under' has cashed 25 times in Super Bowl history. Nine of the last 14 Super Bowls have finished 'under' the total, including in the last stadium played without a roof in Santa Clara in Super Bowl 50 between the Broncos and Panthers.

26 – The longest time that elapsed in a Super Bowl before either team scored was 26 minutes, which occurred in SB38 between New England and Carolina. Despite the slow start, the pair combined 24 at the end of the first half and a SB record 37 in the final 15 minutes as the Patriots won 32-29 over the Panthers.

27 – The 49ers averaged 27.5 points per game away from Levi’s Stadium this season. San Francisco topped the 30-point mark three times, including a season-high 48 points in a victory at New Orleans in Week 14.

28 – Since Kyle Shanahan took over as coach of the 49ers, the club has averaged 28.3 PPG against NFC opponents in 12 games. SF has gone 8-4.

29 – In Super Bowl 29 (XXIX), San Francisco blasted San Diego 49-26 which was the highest scoring all-time finale.

30 – Jimmy Garoppolo has attempted 30 passes or more seven times this season, while throwing only 27 passes in the playoffs. Mahomes has attempted 30 or more passes 13 times this season, including twice in the postseason.

31 – Mahomes has played in four playoff games, all at home, and KC has never been held under 31 points.

32 –The Kansas City offense scored 32 points in a 35-32 road loss to the Titans in Week 10 of this year's regular season. Since Mahomes took in 2018 as QB, Kansas City has lost four games on the road despite scoring 32, 31, 51 and 40 points.

33 – In their last four encounters against the NFC West, all coming in the 2018 regular season, the Chiefs allowed 33.3 PPG. To no surprise, the ‘over’ went 3-1 in those games while KC went 2-2.

34 – Shanahan has called plays in five postseason games, two this year with the 49ers and three during his previous tenure as an offensive coordinator with the Atlanta Falcons. He owns a 4-1 mark and those teams averaged 34 PPG.

35 – Favorites have gone 35-17 straight up in the Super Bowl, while producing a 28-20-2 ATS mark. One game closed at a pick ‘em, which is in the same neighborhood of the SB 54 number.

36 – In the six all-time Super Bowl playoff appearances by San Francisco, the club averaged 36.5 PPG.

37 – The most combined points scored in the fourth quarter of a Super Bowl is 37, which came between the Panthers (19) and Patriots (18) in SBXXVIII.

38 – Kansas City played in five primetime games this season and the combined points scored in those game was 38.6. The Chiefs went 3-2 while the ‘under’ produced a 4-1 mark. The 49ers went 6-1 in games played at 6:40 p.m. ET or later. The ‘over’ went 4-2-1.

39 – In Super Bowl 39 (XXXIX), New England defeated Philadelphia 24-21 but failed to cover as a seven-point favorite. This was one of two games where the underdog, in this case the Eagles, scored late to affect the point-spread. The other backdoor cover came in SBXIII when Pittsburgh defeated Dallas 35-31. The Cowboys trailed 35-17 and scored 14 points in the final three minutes.

40 – The most field goals made from 40 yards or more in a Super Bowl is three by Saints' kicker Garrett Hartley in their win over the Colts in SBXLIV.

41a – The last time we saw back-to-back ‘under’ tickets in the NFL came in Super Bowl 41 when the Colts defeated the Bears 29-17. Coincidentally, that game was also the last Super Bowl played in Miami.

41b – The 49ers scored more than 41 points three times this season, compared to only one occurrence by the Chiefs.

42 – The amount of points allowed by the 49ers in two Super Bowls at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. San Francisco yielded 16 points to Cincinnati in Super Bowl XXIII and 26 points to San Diego in Super Bowl XXIX.

43 – The most completions in a Super Bowl was 43, which is held by QB Tom Brady in Super Bowl 51 between New England and Atlanta. What’s more impressive is that Brady completed 22 passes in the fourth quarter and overtime against the Falcons.

44 – Washington Redskins running back John Riggins wore number 44 and he’s the only Super Bowl MVP that had a jersey listed in the forties. The most common range for SB MVP jersey numbers falls between 10 and 19.

45 – The largest margin of victory in a Super Bowl is 45, which came in SBXXIV when the 49ers blasted the Broncos, 55-10.

46 – The most points allowed by the 49ers this season, which came in a 48-46 victory at New Orleans in Week 14. In six of San Francisco’s other seven road games this season, the Niners yielded 21 points or less.

47 – The longest reception made by Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce this season went for 47 yards, which came against the Raiders in Week 13. The last time a tight end picked up a catch of at least 40 yards in the Super Bowl was Kevin Boss of the Giants, who hauled in a 45-yard reception in Super Bowl XLII against the Patriots.

48 – There has only been one Super Bowl where the combined score has landed exactly on 48 points. This occurred in SBXLIV when the Saints defeated the Colts 31-17 in 2010.

49 – San Francisco captured a 49-26 victory over San Diego in Super Bowl 29, which was the only time a team scored exactly seven touchdowns and extra points in a game. The 75 combined points was also the most ever scored in a Super Bowl.

50 – The highest amount of passing attempts in a game this season by Mahomes was 50, which came in a 35-32 loss at Tennessee in Week 10. In that game, Mahomes threw for a season-high 446 yards.

51 – The Chiefs scored a season-high 51 points in their 51-31 win over the Houston Texans in the Divisional Playoff round.

52 – Mahomes has thrown five passes of 52 yards or more this season, compared to seven such throws in 2018. Jimmy Garoppolo has connected on three passes of 52 yards or more in 2019.

53 – 49ers' wide receiver Deebo Samuel averaged 53.5 yards per game during the regular season. That is the lowest amount of yards averaged per game by a team's leading wide receiver to play in the Super Bowl since 2017 when Philadelphia's Alshon Jeffery posted 49.3 yards per contest.

54 – This is the first Super Bowl with a total of 54 points. In the four other Super Bowls with a total of 54 points or higher, the ‘under’ connected three times.

 

[Udog]

Super Bowl Historical Betting Stats & Trends:

Underdogs: 13-5 ATS last 18 (24-27-2 ATS all-time)
Over/Under 5-2 last 7 (27-25 all-time)

AFC: 26-27 SU & 24-27-2 ATS
NFC: 27-26 SU & 27-24-2 ATS

 

[Udog]

Hot & Not Report - SB54
Matt Blunt

It's been a few weeks since I produced one of these pieces, and with all the historical digging that's been done leading up to Super Bowl 54, I thought it would be best to put out one more of these for the NFL season. Doing all that backtracking has been fun, but at this point I'm about ready to see the football in the air and this game kicked off. You can view my analysis on four early pieces below:

One more look at a couple historical angles is what will be presented here, and given that it's already known that Kansas City is my selection for this year's game, this piece may feel a bit like some confirmation bias to some. I get that you can find stats for pretty much everything these days and that's just how it is. Using or dismissing the following information is your decision, but there are two more historical ideas that I've found to favor the Chiefs this week that aren't being regurgitated like the “team that wears white wins” I seemingly have seen at every corner during this research.

Some may view what I'm about to present as just as useless/coincidental as the jersey color and that's fine, but why leave some stones unturned?

Who's Hot

Since the NFL went to a six-team per conference playoff in the 1990 season, 22 of the 29 Super Bowl winners made the playoffs the year before

Experience is one of those words that gets chucked around a lot in this industry, and whenever it's used the notion of how to quantify a player or team's level of experience comes up. Without question, quantifying experience levels can be an exercise in absurdity, but this may be one of those scenarios where you can bring some measure of value to it. It's something that could be just as valuable at the beginning of the year in futures markets, but when just looking at the two teams involved in the Super Bowl, history has shown that recent playoff experience for teams has proven to be beneficial. Considering the Chiefs made the postseason a year ago, and San Francisco didn't, it does make this situation relevant this year.

In those 29 Super Bowls – starting with the New York Giants win over the Buffalo Buffalo in Super Bowl 25 – there were three years where both Super Bowl teams failed to make the playoffs the year prior (SB 34, 35, and 38), so we've got to omit those as well.

Now most of those years involved two teams that did make the playoffs the year prior, so the 22 for 29 run isn't as bad as it may seem for the 49ers this year, but it's still not a profitable situation for them. In that 29-year span, when we've had this identical scenario – one team off a playoff season (KC) and one team not (SF) – the team with playoff experience from the previous year is 6-4 straight up (SU).

However, since the NFL merger in 1970 – starting with the SB 6 matchup as SB 5 was Year 1 for the NFL as we know it now – teams with that profile are 13-6 SU all-time in the Super Bowl. That does tilt the scale a bit further towards the Chiefs this week, especially when you consider the New England Patriots aren't involved. Of the four Super Bowl wins in the past 29 for those teams lacking playoff experience from the year before, three of them involved the Patriots.

The most recent being when the Philadelphia Eagles knocked off New England, but the 2011 New York Giants fit that bill as well. New England was also on the right side of that coin back in 2001 when Tom Brady and New England won their first Super Bowl to start their dynasty, upsetting the Rams in one of the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history. The other game to fit the bill was when New Orleans knocked off Peyton Manning's Indianapolis Colts team back in the 2009 season, oddly enough the last time the Super Bowl was played in Miami.

But while San Francisco backers may take that Miami connection as a positive here, even that can be up for dispute. In the six other Super Bowls played in Miami (from SB 10 on), this occurrence has actually happened four other times (SB 10, 23, 29, and 33) and all four of those times, the team that had the recent playoff experience won the game outright. In all four of those wins, the winning team did enter the game as the favorite, but did post a 2-2 ATS record thanks to having some lofty spreads attached.

Again, the dispute there lies in that the 49ers organization was actually a part of two of those victories (SB 23 and 29), but with this year's spread in the range where you've just got to pick the outright winner, the straight up results seem a bit more important.

Granted, the argument that Super Bowls that were played 20+ years ago have nothing to do with this year's game is valid and will be where some choose to hang their hat, but if we can't learn from the past, what else do we have?


Who's Not

Since the start of the 2000 NFL season, Super Bowl teams that enter with the QB who had more regular season passing TD's are 6-13 SU, including 0-4 SU and ATS the past four years

Poking holes in this trend is possible as well as there have been multiple cases where one Super Bowl QB didn't play the same number of games during the year as the other one, but in terms of final tally numbers, that 6-13 SU number holds up. This year's game does feature the two QB's playing a different number of games thanks to Patrick Mahomes injury earlier in the year, but the final regular season tally went like this: Jimmy Garoppolo 27 TD passes, Patrick Mahomes 26 TD passes.

What may be most interesting about this angle is that with all those Super Bowls made by the New England Patriots and Tom Brady, we do have a measuring point specifically for him in proving the validity of this angle. Brady is 6-3 SU in his nine Super Bowl appearances, but all three of those defeats came when he finished the year with more TD passes then his foe, and four of his six wins came when he had fewer TD passes then his foe.

Brady's not involved in this year's game, but considering that big of a sample size for one man, it is hard to completely negate this angle. And the two wins he did get when having more TD passes were against Carolina on a last-second FG, and against Seattle when the Seahawks decided not to run the ball from the one-yard line. Had a bounce or two gone differently, maybe this trend would be perfect for Brady and his nine Super Bowl appearances.

The lack of passing from Jimmy G in these playoffs has been a popular talking point for this game, but this angle kind of flips that upside down. Now, had Mahomes played a full season he would have almost certainly had more passing TD's, but the chips fall as they will, and oddly enough it's working out in KC's favor here.

Whether or not that's how it plays out on Sunday remains to be seen, but I can also leave you with this angle that was last on the chopping block for this piece:
The Super Bowl team with the larger margin of victory in the conference championship game is just 7-11-2 SU in the last 20 Super Bowls (twice both participants had identical margin of victories).
Only three of those wins have come by the underdog, so sorry San Francisco fans, the writing may already be on the wall.

 

[Udog]

Six bullshit Super Bowl betting trends you should never base your bets on

Teams wearing white uniforms have won 13 of the previous 15 Super Bowls – and that has made some 49ers fans excited, as San Fran will wear its "lucky" whites this weekend.

Every year, the Big Game attracts billions of betting bucks – and not all of those dollars are wagered sensibly. There have been plenty of trends mentioned ahead of Sunday's NFL championship game between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs, and we're here to present six that you can not only safely ignore, but openly and gleefully mock those who don't. Here, without further ado, are the WORST Super Bowl trends making the rounds in 2020:

WHITE UNIS, BABY!

If you haven't heard this little nugget yet, you're lucky. And if you have, we can only hope you didn't give it a second thought. Teams wearing white uniforms have won 13 of the previous 15 Super Bowls – and that has made some 49ers fans excited, as San Fran will wear its "lucky" whites this weekend. It doesn't help matters that the Niners are 2-0 when wearing white at the Super Bowl, prevailing in Super Bowl XIV vs. the Bengals and again in Super Bowl XXIV vs. Denver. There's absolutely no rhyme or reason for this trend, but that won't stop some people from putting money on it – and saying "Told ya!" if the 49ers do go on to win.


HEADS WILL ROLL

Ah, the coin flip. Countless millions of dollars are spent on this activity every Super Bowl, with the odds the same as they ever were: -105 for heads, and -105 for tails. There is literally no coin flip-related trend worth pursuing – and yet, you'll see people make their coin-flip wager on the basis of Heads having rode a bit of a hot streak, coming through in nine of the previous 14 Super Bowls. But whether you're a "ride the streak!" bettor, or a "tails are due" wagerer, the simple fact remains (and it's backed by basic finite math): the result of the Super Bowl coin flip is exactly that – a coin flip. Don't overthink this one.


DOME SWEET DOME

Some people just prefer not having to go outside. Like cat ladies. Or professional gamers. And it certainly appears as if you can add the NFC's Super Bowl representatives to that list; the conference has been positively dominant in a dome setting, having won 15 of the past 19 NFL championships played indoors. And here's the best part of all: IT MEANS NOTHING. San Francisco has won just one of its previous five games played in a dome while giving up an average of 34 points per game in that span. And the Chiefs? They're 4-1 SU in a dome setting since 2010. But DON'T BET ON THAT, EITHER!


FAB IN FEBRUARY

On the flip side, what is it about NFC teams refusing to stay competitive once the calendar flips to Feb. 1? Or perhaps this has more to do with the fact that Tom Brady truly is an untiring cyborg, sent to Earth to provide mirth and enjoyment while teaching all of us how to play better football. Whatever the case, the AFC has been a far superior play in Super Bowls played in the month of February, having gone 11-6 SU. That includes Baltimore's 21-19 win over San Fran at Super Bowl XLVII at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. These teams have played one combined February game in their history. Can you say, "sample size fail"?


START FAST, FADE LATE

Both Kansas City and San Francisco got off to hot starts in 2019 – but the Chiefs' loss in their fifth game in the season might just make them a better bet to win this weekend, if you believe in dumb trends. Over the past decade-plus, only two teams that kicked off the season 5-0 (the 2009 New Orleans Saints and the 2015 Denver Broncos) went on to win the Super Bowl. So, as you can see, that 5-0 start by the Niners is a sure sign that they're in trouble Sunday. On the flip side, the last three teams to win the title in Miami all started 5-0 – so you're probably VERY confused by now. Here's a tip: Ignore it all.


TAKE IT TO THE HOUSE

Speaking of NFL championship games played at Hard Rock Stadium, the overwhelming majority of them have featured at least one memorable play (okay, several, but we have a soft spot for this type in particular). Of the 10 kickoff returns for a touchdown in Super Bowl history, four of them have taken place in the five games played at the site of Sunday's showdown – and the 49ers were actually on the wrong end of two of those, at Super Bowl XXIII vs. Cincinnati and Super Bowl XXIX against San Diego. Sounds like a sure thing, then, right? WRONG. It's a cute stat, but not something you should bet on.

 

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


CHOOSING SIDES

We are down to four sleeps till Super Bowl 54. Neither the line nor the total has moved much since it opened on Jan 20 at Sports Interaction. The Chiefs are still 1.5-point chalk after opening at -1 while the total opened at 53.5, peaked at 55 and now sits at 54.

It may sound cliche, but this is a classic defense-against-offense matchup with Kansas City’s top-three DVOA offense facing San Francisco’s No. 2 DVOA defense. The biggest advantage the 49ers have is their defensive-front four who are so disruptive that Robert Saleh seldom has to commit his linebackers and secondary to blitzes. The Niners sat in the bottom-three in blitz percentage as it allows them to drop seven players in coverage.

Not blitzing could also help in another situation as the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes has a quarterback rating of 117.2 when facing the blitz versus 106.3 when not.

Statistically, the Chiefs have 56 first downs through their two playoff games with just eight of those coming on third down — 8-for-18. San Fran’s defense could put Mahomes and the offense in an uncomfortable and unfamiliar position by forcing Kansas City to pass the ball on third down against seven defenders in coverage.

We usually look at player/team props and derivatives, but it wouldn’t be fair if we didn't get our two cents in on the side. We have made our choice and going with the defense — Niners +1.5.


WINNING BIG WITH SPECIAL TEAMS

With a lofty total of 54 points, SB54 could have its fair share of scoring. With scoring comes the usually bland kick returns, unless you’re the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs’ full-time returner, Mecole Hardman, led the league in return yards with 932 — 100 yards more than the next player.

Hardman will have ample opportunities to make something happen as the 49ers have a touchback percentage of 50 percent which ranks in the bottom seven of the league. On top of leading the league in return yards, the K.C. returner with 4.3 wheels also has the longest kickoff return this year at 104 yards and is only one of seven players to score a kickoff return TD. The last kickoff return TD in a Super Bowl was by Jacoby Jones back in 2012.

Very few things in a football game are as exciting as a kickoff return touchdown, especially when it pays 15 times your wager. Find the “Will there be a kickoff return TD” and add the Yes (+1427) to your betting slip.


THE LONGEST YARD

Looking at both the longest score props of the game, the longest touchdown scored prop sits at 44.5 yards while the longest field goal’s total is 47.5 yards. It may be fun to play these bets, but previous Super Bowls haven’t been very profitable for these Overs.

In the last 10 Super Bowls, Over 47.5 yards for the longest field has hit just once — Rams’ Greg Zuerlein’s 53-yarder last year. To make matters even worse the Over is just 3-7 O/U in the Chiefs and 49ers combined previous five games while the Chiefs have attempted just one field goal this postseason.

Since Super Bowl 44, a touchdown of 45 yards or longer has been scored six times, but only in four of the 10 games. Of those six, only one was scored by an offense** (three interception returns, a punt return and a kickoff return). San Francisco is 1-4 O/U longest TD of 44.5 yards in its last five with the only long score coming on a pick-six and Kansas City is 3-2 O/U that total in its last five. 45 Yards is longer than we think as even Stefon Diggs’ TD against the Niners in the Divisional round was shy at 41 yards.

We don’t always like betting with the trends, but this one has our interest and we have no problem hitting the Under on both longest field goal and longest TD.

**So, here is the question: Which QB threw the longest TD in a Super Bowl over the last 10 years?

 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Championship

Super Bowl, Miami:
— Underdogs won five of the last eight Super Bowls.
— Underdogs are 12-6 vs spread in last 18 Super Bowls
— Five of the last seven Super Bowls went over.

— Chiefs are in their first Super Bowl in 50 years; they’re 1-1 in Super Bowls
— KC won its last eight games, scoring 31.6 ppg.
— Chiefs’ last three games went over the total.
— KC is 2-0 this year in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Reid was Eagles’ coach when they lost Super Bowl 15 years ago.

— 49ers are in first Super Bowl since 2012; they’re 5-1 in Super Bowls
— SF won its last four games, scoring 31 ppg.
— Over is 4-1-1 in 49ers’ last six games.
— SF is 5-0 this year in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Shanahan was Atlanta’s OC when they blew a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl

— Chiefs beat San Francisco 38-27 in Week 3 LY; they led 35-10 at halftime.
— Home team won last 10 49er-Chief games, but this is on a neutral field.
— Prediction: Chiefs, 28-27

 

[Udog]

Advantage - Kansas City Chiefs
Kevin Rogers

The Chiefs hosted the AFC championship game in 2018, but lost a shootout in overtime to the eventual champion Patriots. However, Kansas City rebounded this season with another trip to the conference title game and knocked off Tennessee for its first Super Bowl appearance since 1969.

In spite of last season’s Most Valuable Player Patrick Mahomes missing nearly three games due to a dislocated kneecap, the Chiefs still posted 451 points. Kansas City made the Super Bowl even though it scored 114 points less than last season and finished with the exact same 14-2 record in the regular season.

Mahomes threw almost half the touchdown passes from 2018 (50) to this season (26), but also cut down on his interceptions from 12 to 5. The former Texas Tech standout still managed 4,031 yards passing in 13 ½ games, which was only an average of eight yards passing fewer per game than 2018. The Chiefs won seven of eight games away from Arrowhead Stadium with the only loss coming to the Titans in Week 10 on a last-minute touchdown, which was coincidentally the best passing game by Mahomes this season (446 yards).

The Chiefs did an excellent job of not giving away the ball this season by committing only 15 turnovers, which was ranked tied for third-fewest in the league. As mentioned earlier, the five interceptions thrown by Mahomes (zero by Matt Moore in the two games he started) were the second-fewest in the NFL behind Green Bay. Kansas City owned a +8 turnover ratio on the season, compared to San Francisco’s +4 turnover margin as the 49ers threw 13 interceptions, which is the second-most among playoff teams.

Mahomes has never thrown an interception in four career playoff games, compared to 11 touchdown passes. His best passing performance came in the divisional round against the Texans in which he threw for 321 yards and five touchdowns, marking the most touchdowns he posted this season.

VegasInsider.com NFL expert Joe Nelson provides his thoughts on why the Chiefs are worth backing, “Kansas City was sixth in the NFL in opposing quarterback passer rating, ahead of San Francisco. The Chiefs were also eighth in the NFL in red zone touchdown success allowed, while San Francisco was 25th. The Chiefs allowed 4.8 yards per rush this season, but San Francisco wasn’t that much better surrendering 4.4 yards per attempt. While the bulk of the compiling numbers favor San Francisco, there are key numbers that paint these defenses much closer together than the general team statistics over the course of the season. The defensive numbers for San Francisco also got worse in the second half of the season while they improved dramatically for the Chiefs down the stretch.”

The two rallies pulled off by Kansas City just proves its relentless scoring prowess according to Nelson, “The Chiefs have come back from 24-0 and 17-7 in two playoff wins the past two games as this team can handle adversity and won’t panic if there is a big turnover or an early setback. It isn’t clear the 49ers can do that going just 5-3 in single-score games this season. The 49ers lucked into the #1 seed in the NFC with Seattle falling an inch short of the goal line in Week 17. In the NFC Championship, they faced a Packers team that could make a case for being one of the weakest #2 seeds in NFL history as well. Both quality road wins for the 49ers came narrowly with great fortune while the Chiefs dominated its final two road games of the season against quality defenses and will be easier to trust in a neutral site far from home.”

The second half defense has been especially strong for Kansas City down the stretch by allowing double-digit points after halftime only once in the past eight contests. The Chiefs yielded seven points in the second half of each of their playoff wins against the Titans and Texans, while the most points allowed after halftime in this stretch was 14 in the Week 17 home win over the Chargers.

The Chiefs did a better job of limiting top statistical quarterbacks than the 49ers this season. Kansas City has played five games against quarterbacks that finished in the top 10 in passing (Philip Rivers twice, Derek Carr twice, and Tom Brady), while San Francisco played six contests against four such quarterbacks (Jared Goff twice, Russell Wilson twice, Jameis Winston, and Matt Ryan). In spite of the 49ers playing one extra game, they racked up only five interceptions, with three coming in the opener at Tampa Bay. The Chiefs compiled 11 interceptions in those five games, compared to six touchdown passes.

Out of starting quarterbacks that played at least 14 games, Mahomes was sacked the least by getting taken down only 17 times, compared to Jimmy Garoppolo getting sacked 36 times in 16 starts.

 

[Udog]

Advantage - San Francisco 49ers
Kevin Rogers

The 49ers were not a team strongly considered to be the top seed in the NFC playoffs, much less capture its first conference title since 2012. But San Francisco put together a terrific campaign that started with an 8-0 record and a 13-3 finish that included late-season victories over the Saints, Rams, and Seahawks to secure the number one seed and home-field advantage.

Since Jimmy Garoppolo has taken over as starting quarterback of the 49ers late in the 2017 season, San Francisco owns a spectacular 21-5 record. Garoppolo won the final starts of 2017 after getting traded from New England, then went 1-1 to begin 2018 before tearing his ACL in a Week 3 defeat at San Francisco. The season went sideways for the Niners, who finished 4-12, but after Garoppolo rehabbed from the knee injury, San Francisco lost a total of three games in 2019, including two by three points each.

The defense led the way for San Francisco to begin the season, which included limiting six of their first seven opponents to 17 points or less. The 49ers posted 31 points or more four times during this early stretch, including dropping 51 points on Carolina in a Week 8 home blowout. Garoppolo threw for over 300 yards only three times this season, but all three came in victories, including in the wild 48-46 triumph at New Orleans in Week 14.

Although the defensive numbers weren’t as strong down the stretch for San Francisco (31.7 points per game allowed in the last four regular season games), the 49ers shut down the Vikings and Packers in two resounding home playoff victories. San Francisco limited those two NFC North squads to a total of 30 points, while winning each time by 17 points. The Niners allowed a total of 83 yards on the ground in the two victories, after giving up an average of 112.8 yards per game rushing (which was still 16 yards better than the Chiefs).

Since 2013, three NFC teams listed as underdogs in the Super Bowl that won both playoff games at home are 2-1. The Seahawks dominated the Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII, 43-8 and the Eagles outlasted the Patriots, 41-33 in Super Bowl LII. The only loser in this situation was the Falcons in Super Bowl LI, who famously squandered a 28-3 lead over the Patriots in a 34-28 overtime setback as three-point ‘dogs.

NFL handicapper Joe Nelson elaborates on the dominance of the San Francisco defense through the playoffs, “Aaron Rodgers had a 22.3 QBR in the NFC Championship despite being one of the all-time greats in that metric. Kirk Cousins was one of the top-rated quarterbacks in the NFL and he didn’t fare much better vs. the 49ers with the Vikings managing seven first downs. The Chiefs have needed Patrick Mahomes to be brilliant in two playoff wins after digging early holes, he isn’t likely to have great numbers against a 49ers’ defense that held opposing quarterbacks to the seventh-worst rating in the league in the regular season.”

For as much as the Chiefs are thought of as an offensive juggernaut, the 49ers’ offense actually outperformed Kansas City this season, “Kansas City wowed with 86 points in two impressive comeback wins in the playoffs, but even with that scoring the Chiefs have been outscored by the 49ers 543-537 through 18 games. The only major team statistic that the Chiefs beat the 49ers is turnover differential at +8 compared to just +7 counting the playoff games for an inconsequential difference,” Nelson notes.

The 49ers led the NFL in passing yards allowed per game in the NFL at 169.2, while yielding 300 or more yards to a quarterback three times this season. In San Francisco’s three losses, the Niners never gave up more than 240 yards passing as they led or were tied with less than two minutes to go in each defeat.

 

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


FIVE YARDS FOR A WINNER

Looking to diversify your player prop portfolio for Sunday’s game? Well, Jimmy Garoppolo’s rushing total sits at an unheard of 4.5 yards. That’s basically one small jump for a winner. There is obviously a reason why his total is so low as the San Francisco quarterback is averaging just 3.6 yards rushing a game thanks to a 1.4 yards per carry.

The G-man has gone over 4.5 rushing yards in just six of his 18 games this year but is 2-1 O/U in the 49ers three losses. A trend that sits in the QB’s favor is that KC has allowed opposing quarterbacks to top 4.5 yards in six of its last seven games including a 20-yard rushing performance from Tom Brady in Week 14.

If Brady can do it, so can Garoppolo. This one is more fun than anything else, but we are still adding Garoppolo’s Over 4.5 rushing yards to our championship plays.


BETTING ON THE LAST PLAY

The Super Bowl brings us a plethora of game props that aren’t usually available during the regular season. When Over/Under shortest touchdown of 1.5 yards is a standard game prop for you, then you need some weird action to tickle your fancy.

One such play caught our attention: last play of game QB rush (yes -167; no +136). If you’re taking the “no” you will be hoping for a comeback as the victory formation is your greatest enemy and if you’re backing the yes, a quarterback kneel is considered a rushing attempt.

Looking back on each teams’ last five wins, three losses and the last play of the previous seven Super Bowls gives us these results:

San Francisco last five wins — 3-2 Y/N
San Francisco last three losses — 0-3 Y/N

Kansas City last five wins — 5-0 Y/N
Kansas City last three losses — 1-2 Y/N

Last 10 Super Bowls — 4-6 Y/N

This is another bet that you can add to the “fun list” of props as cheering for the plus-money “No” keeps you hoping for the trailing offense to keep possession. We see this closer to a 50/50 bet than the odds suggest and are happy to take the No for +136.


WAITING FOR THE FIRST

We don’t know much about chronological order as we are segueing from the last play of the game to the contest’s first TD. If you’re in the boat that thinks the 49ers won’t have any difficulty rushing the ball against the Chiefs’ No. 29 DVOA rush defense, there are many special bets out there.

The one that took our attention was regarding how the first TD will be scored. Passing TD - First TD of the Game is a big favorite as it sits at -156 while Any Other TD - First TD of the Game is a tempting +120.

The 49ers had the league’s third-best rushing touchdown percentage at just under 50 percent and that number jumps to 85 percent over their last five games. The Chiefs could also help us out with a winner as they have scored rushing TDs at a 42-percent rate of their total offensive TDs, but we like the Niners to get the first crack at an easier touchdown with their defense making life more difficult than the K.C. offense is used to.

We like the Any Other TD - First TD of the Game at +120


KITTLE VS. KELCE

Super Bowl 54 features arguably the two best tight ends in the NFL. Travis Kelce and George Kittle finished first and third respectively in receiving yards this year as Kelce averaged nearly ten yards more than the 49ers TE.

With San Francisco committing to the run, Kittle has stayed in and helped with the blocking as he has been targeted six times in the playoffs and just once in the Conference round. Kelce, on the other hand, put up 134 yards on 10 grabs and a trio of touchdowns in the Divisional game and sputtered a bit versus Tennessee gaining just 30 yards on three grabs.

With the K.C. offense’s motor being driven by the passing game, we will take Kelce to get the most receiving yards between him and Kittle. Kelce pays -120 to outperform the San Fran TE.

 

[Udog]

Total Talk - Super Bowl 54
Chris David

Over/Under Trends and Angles

Prior to last year’s 13-3 snooze-fest in Super Bowl 53 between the Patriots and Rams, the NFL finale had watched the ‘over’ cash in five of the previous six games.

For this year’s Super Bowl 54 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, the oddsmakers are expecting fireworks and the betting public is buying that narrative.

After the matchup was set on Sunday Jan. 19, oddsmakers sent out an opener of 51 ½ and that total has been pushed up to 54 ½ as of Friday before the Super Bowl. The betting trends are leaning heavily to the ‘over’ and if that connects, the profits for the bookmakers will be cut drastically regardless of the 49ers or Chiefs winnings.

While many bettors love cheering points, the total results for the Super Bowl have had nice back-and-forth results. Through the first 53 Super Bowls with listed totals, the ‘over’ owns a slight 27-25 edge.

For my last and final “Total Talk” piece of the season, I’ve dug up plenty of nuggets that could help your Super Bowl total wagers for either the ‘over’ or ‘under’ come Sunday.

Advantage – Over

-- Kansas City averaged 29.6 points per game on the road, ranked third in the league while San Francisco owns the fifth best offense, averaging 27.5 PPG away from home.

-- Make a note that the Chiefs haven’t played outside of Arrowhead since Dec. 22 when they stifled the Bears 26-3 on the road.

-- San Francisco’s last road trip was a bit more recent and the opponent was much tougher as the 49ers outlasted the Seahawks 26-21 on Dec. 29 from CenturyLink Field.

-- The Chiefs went 5-3 versus playoff teams this season and the ‘over’ went 7-1 in those games, which includes a 2-0 record in the AFC Divisional Playoff and Championship rounds. Delving deeper into those games, Kansas City has allowed 27.7 PPG.

-- Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes has appeared in four playoff games and the Chiefs have averaged 37 PPG albeit every contest was played at Arrowhead Stadium.

-- The total on those games were all listed in the fifties and the ‘over’ produced a 3-1 mark.

-- The two teams met in the 2018 regular season and the Chiefs defeated the 49ers 38-27 as six-point home favorites and the ‘over’ (53 ½) connected easily. Mahomes helped KC build a 35-10 lead at halftime and he finished the day with 314 passing yards and three touchdowns. In that game, Jimmy Garoppolo tore his ACL and missed the rest of the season.

-- Including the aforementioned outcome, KC has watched the ‘over’ go 6-2 in its last eight games against NFC opponents and it’s never been held under 26 points.

-- Another angle focusing on Mahomes goes with games off rest. Since he took over as the signal caller in 2018, the Chiefs have scored 40, 31, 40 and 51 points in their last four games off rest.

-- While San Francisco wasn’t as explosive with rest, it’s been formidable this season. The club went 2-0 when playing with rest in 2019, averaging 29 PPG. The Niners defeated Cleveland 31-3 in Week 5 before humbling Minnesota 27-10 in the Divisional Playoffs round.

-- San Francisco has played in six Super Bowls all-time and the ‘over’ has gone 4-2 in those games. The 49ers have averaged 36.5 PPG in those finales and have never been held below 20 points.

-- One of those NFL championships occurred in Miami and the 49ers blasted the Chargers 49-26 in SBXXIX, which is still the highest-scoring Super Bowl of all-time.

-- San Francisco has played in two Super Bowls with totals listed in the fifties and the ‘over’ has cashed in both of those games.

Advantage – Under

-- San Francisco allowed 18.9 PPG on the road this season, ranked fifth in the league. Meanwhile, Kansas City isn’t known to be a defensive power but it only surrendered 20.2 PPG and the unit was actually better on the road (17.9 PPG) than at home (22 PPG).

-- The Niners watched the ‘under’ go 4-3-1 on the road while Kansas City watched the low side go 5-3 on the road.

-- Kansas City closed the season on a 4-1 ‘under’ record away from home and four of those teams were held to 17 points or less.

-- San Francisco has only had two totals close in the fifties this season and the ‘under’ cashed in both games. Each of those contests took place on the road and San Francisco captured 31-17 and 20-7 wins over the Buccaneers and Rams respectively.

-- Versus AFC opponents, San Francisco is on a 5-1 run to the ‘under’ and that includes a 3-1 mark to the low side this season. The defense only allowed 15 PPG this season versus AFC.

-- Travel is always a factor for the Niners, since they are one of five teams that play on the West Coast. When playing in the Eastern Standard Time Zone this season, San Francisco went 3-1 this season the average combined score of those games was 38. The defense held all four opponents to 20 points or less.

-- When playing with rest under head coach Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers have seen the ‘under’ cash in all four games. They’ve gone 2-2 in those games (both wins this season) but the defense surrendered a combined 13 points.

-- This nugget from VI handicapper Alex Smart is a good one and it focuses on Chiefs head coach Andy Reid and his success with rest. Per Smart “Reid is 20-5 to the ‘under’ when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest in all games he has coached since 1992 with the combined average score of those games clicking in at 39 PPG.

-- The Super Bowl has had 11 totals close in the fifties and the ‘under’ has gone 7-4 in those games. Diving deeper into those matchups, the low side has gone 5-2 in the last seven Super Bowls with a total higher than 50 points.

-- In the five Super Bowl wins for the 49ers, the defense has only allowed 17.8 PPG.

-- Kansas City averaged 16.5 PPG in its only two Super Bowl appearances.

Super Bowl 54 Best Bet
Total (Over/Under) Predictions

I was happy to produce a solid regular season mark (29-22, 57%) with my totals but my reckless 6-9 mark in the postseason certainly hurt the overall results. We’re still in the black (barely) on the season and while I don’t go nuts on Super Bowl wagers since it is just one game, I’m confident in these selections. You can hear more of my handicapping approach and analysis on the Bet and Collect Podcast with Kevin Rogers. Thanks for your feedback and support all season!

As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

I believe we’re going to see plenty of scores in this game but I’m not sure how many points will be posted. Kansas City has proven that it can move the chains on anybody but this will be its toughest defensive test. San Francisco’s offense might not appear as explosive yet it had more big plays (106) than the Chiefs (75) this season. A big play is a pass completion of 25-plus yards and a running play of 10-plus yards.

Defensively, the 49ers have a huge edge and I believe the Chiefs will be exposed in this spot. In my opinion, I believe Kansas City has faced three solid quarterbacks on the road this season that have quality offensive talent surrounding them. Those teams were the Lions, Titans and Chargers. Yes, I’m leaving out the Patriots and Tom Brady because New England’s offense was a mess. In those games against Detroit, Tennessee and Los Angeles, the Chiefs allowed an average of 27.3 PPG and 418 defensive yards.

With all that being said, I believe Jimmy G and the San Francisco offense is more potent than those teams and that has me playing the San Francisco 49ers Team Total Over 26 ½.

Another wager that caught my eye was the 1st Quarter Over 10 Points. The 49ers averaged 6.7 PPG in the first 15 minutes of their games this season and that number went up on the road to 6.9 PPG. Per Matt Blunt’s Super Bowl Total Analysis piece, the 49ers and Chiefs both saw 10 or more points scored in 12 of their 18 games. If you aren’t a math wizard, that’s a 67 percent clip to get double-digits and I’ll place the buy order here.

San Francisco 49ers Team Total Over 26 ½
1st Quarter Over 10 Points