Card Counting in blackjack

[Livinthedream]

The problem with counting is you need to stay reasonably sober, have a sufficent bankroll to catch the positive shoes and avoid detection. Not easy.

 

[ECS]

I figured you guys saw that on A&E, it was when they aired all the casino scams, MIT BJ team. This guys was amazing, he used sleight of hand. He would put a chocolate chip (5k) under a black chip on a busy roulette table. If his color didn't hit he would switch it w/ 2 blacks chips. The key was the angle of the top chip, he would push it slightly forward so from the dealers angle, they couldn't really tell what was the color of the chip under it without really looking. Was the most profitable casino scam ever.... I'll do a search to see if i can find him....

Isnt this the guy who wrote the book called American Roulette? Pretty sweet book and he made millions post pasting bets, good read....

 

[ECS]

I used to play when I lived in Vegas, I didn't try much for comps,didn't need a room.

I used the simple count of +1 for 2-6, and -1 for tens ans aces, and a high differential in bet sizes.

The game has changed, harder to win now.

Don't expect much in comps for 5-25 play, if anything at all.

Any of many books can teach you the counting systems. Lawrence Revere's book is good. Thorpe is the original guy. Patterson and Wong are good too.

Its kind of too late for BJ,IMO. It used to be good much like sports used to be good when there was Neteller, bonuses,reliable books,etc.

I hear ya, ya the hi-lo method is the one ive learned. The actual count I believe is not very difficult to do, and nobody gave me a second glance when I was raising my bets from 5-25 when the count got hot....

 

[ECS]

yes, but a counter needs to vary bet size, and typical players bet the same amount consistently, changing bet size from 1 unit to 5 units stands out as play typical of a counter, and the casino can say... go away.

The deck fluctuates to being favorable and unfavorable to the player, betting more when favorable gains the advantage, but is hard to do for long.

You can't realistically bet $10, then suddenly $100, then back to $10. You'd have a better chance of that with a shoe game. In a hand-held game, that move often causes the dealer to shuffle.

I think really it takes a strong will to not pop it up and get greedy. Trust me, I was chomping at the bit, had about 1.5 decks left in the shoe and my true count was over 15. I went from 5 too 25/30 and actually got a nice fat 11 that doubled to 25 and hit the 10, but I really wanted to be dropping down 50-100, I just thought that would be way to obvious so I went about my business....

 

[ElJefe]

I think really it takes a strong will to not pop it up and get greedy. Trust me, I was chomping at the bit, had about 1.5 decks left in the shoe and my true count was over 15. I went from 5 too 25/30 and actually got a nice fat 11 that doubled to 25 and hit the 10, but I really wanted to be dropping down 50-100, I just thought that would be way to obvious so I went about my business....

It always seems best to finally unload big when a good advantage comes up. But it's all in relation to your overall bankroll. Even with the greatest of advantages, you're still looking at a 40-45% of losing. So you've got to be ready to take the loss if it happens.

 

[sunnyblue100]

yes, but a counter needs to vary bet size, and typical players bet the same amount consistently, changing bet size from 1 unit to 5 units stands out as play typical of a counter, and the casino can say... go away.

The deck fluctuates to being favorable and unfavorable to the player, betting more when favorable gains the advantage, but is hard to do for long.

You can't realistically bet $10, then suddenly $100, then back to $10. You'd have a better chance of that with a shoe game. In a hand-held game, that move often causes the dealer to shuffle.

I heard that you have to pretend to be a casual player, you can't just concentrate on card counting, you have to, for instance, bs with dealer and other players all the time.

 

[Doug]

I hear ya, ya the hi-lo method is the one ive learned. The actual count I believe is not very difficult to do, and nobody gave me a second glance when I was raising my bets from 5-25 when the count got hot....

5 to 25 isn't huge

50 to 250 would get more notice.

 

[sunnyblue100]

Maybe it's actually easy to make money in online blackjack? After all, it;s machine generated algorithm, no true RNG, there must be some flaw that can be taken advantage of.

 

[sunnyblue100]

5 to 25 isn't huge

50 to 250 would get more notice.

But since card counting only gives you slight advantage, say the actual payout is now 100.1%, you have to bet $10000 overall to make $10. If you play 5 to 25, it takes longer than an hour to bet $10000 and make 10 bucks.

 

[Doug]

Maybe it's actually easy to make money in online blackjack? After all, it;s machine generated algorithm, no true RNG, there must be some flaw that can be taken advantage of.

I doubt online can be beaten, its a new shuffle every hand, I have no idea how to beat it.

 

[Doug]

But since card counting only gives you slight advantage, say the actual payout is now 100.1%, you have to bet $10000 overall to make $10. If you play 5 to 25, it takes longer than an hour to bet $10000 and make 10 bucks.

I think it gets a lot better than that, depends on rules where you are playing. Wong's book ( Professional Blackjack) breaks it down to hourly expectations.

You can make refinements also when counting, like standing on 16 vs. 10 with a positive count for example.

Penetration level is very important. A game dealt close to the last possible round is huge for the player. How big a spread you can pull off is important,etc.

You could win big flat-betting if you were allowed a computer to figure best play by inputting played cards, and changing play according to what has been dealt, you'd vary from basic strategy a lot. Nobody can do that in their head.

 

[Doug]

I heard that you have to pretend to be a casual player, you can't just concentrate on card counting, you have to, for instance, bs with dealer and other players all the time.

it gets easier in time. Beginners should start with one deck ( or two) so if they lose count there will be a shuffle soon.

 

[fhmesq44]

you can count all day long betting $5-$25/hand and they won't care. They probably wouldn't care if you went from $50 to $250 like Doug references.

I imagine they don't even waste their time considering counting on the smaller tables.

If you want comps at a decent vegas casino, they want a minimum of of 4 hours/day at $125/hand. I think Mandalay last time I was there said 5/day at $200 or something absurd like that.

 

[Doug]

A 3-1 spread ratio between bet sizes used to be considered acceptable, and would be tolerated at most places, 5-1 is kind of pushing it,IMO.

 

[fhmesq44]

A 3-1 spread ratio between bet sizes used to be considered acceptable, and would be tolerated at most places, 5-1 is kind of pushing it,IMO.

My point has more to do with the amounts than the spreads. at $250/hand, Mandalay or Caesars or whatever big casino isn't going to care IMO, they certainly won't care at $25/hand.

 

[Doug]

agree that 5-25 will fly pretty easily, won't get comps though.

I think you might be able to swing a room comp downtown midweek at 50-75 hand for a few hours play a day, at a place like 4Queens or Plaza.

 

[WVU]

nm

 

[ECS]

It always seems best to finally unload big when a good advantage comes up. But it's all in relation to your overall bankroll. Even with the greatest of advantages, you're still looking at a 40-45% of losing. So you've got to be ready to take the loss if it happens.

For sure, which is never fun, believe me, I had a huge bet out once during that run and when the 11 came I was sweatin bullets

 

[ECS]

you can count all day long betting $5-$25/hand and they won't care. They probably wouldn't care if you went from $50 to $250 like Doug references.

I imagine they don't even waste their time considering counting on the smaller tables.

If you want comps at a decent vegas casino, they want a minimum of of 4 hours/day at $125/hand. I think Mandalay last time I was there said 5/day at $200 or something absurd like that.

which is why I want to stay their, I dont care to only make a little, I just want to swing the odds in my favor a little bit

 

[WVU]

in the old days counting could get you close to 100.3% but that was playing $5-$250 spreads.

you need to be able to do better than a 5 times spread to get an advantage big enough to be worth attempting