Capping MLB 2007 #101a Ov/Un plus Las Vegas Q&A

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Weather has an important influence on how a baseball travels when it is hit. Air pressure, wind, temperature and humidity are important to note.

Air pressure: Air pressure depends on the elevation of a region and the current weather. Air pressure is usually the most important factor in determining how far a baseball will travel in the air when hit, all else being equal. At higher elevations, air has a lower density. When the air density is lower, baseballs can travel further. Air rubbing against a baseball produces a frictional force. The lower the air density, the smaller this frictional force becomes. Air density also changes depending on whether high pressure or low pressure weather is influencing the region.

Wind: Wind either amplifies or reduces the amount of friction the baseball experiences during flight. Air flowing toward the baseball in flight acts as a force to slow the forward motion. This slows the ball down and reduces its flight path. Wind flowing with the baseball helps it fly longer distances.

Temperature: When air warms, it expands. This warming and expansion lowers the density of the air. This produces longer flight distances, all else being basically equal.

Humidity: At the same temperature, air with a higher dewpoint will be less dense. Click here for an explanation of why this is. At a higher humidity, baseballs will travel a little further, all else being equal.

Optimum for long baseball hits: high elevation, wind blowing out, warm and humid air mass
Minimization for long baseball hits: low elevation, wind blowing in, cold and dry air mass
 

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pops i have a question on your 2006 sheets. you have a pivot table showing average runs scored for each o/u line. For example when the o/u is 9 the avg runs scored was 9.7, but when the game went over it was 13.5. when it went under the avg was 5.5. My question is what use do you make of that information? how does it factor in to capping?
 

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Barry Bonds may have pulled a hamstring last night, may want to check his status at game time.

Ya Barry made a big mistake not going to the AL. He can still hit but he is a joke in the outfield now. I saw that play he hurt himself on. He looked like an old man running to make the play....dude is to fat with bad knees. Just can't run anymore (although he did steal a base yesterday). But catchers suck now and everybody steals 2nd base these days
 

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Ya Barry made a big mistake not going to the AL. He can still hit but he is a joke in the outfield now. I saw that play he hurt himself on. He looked like an old man running to make the play....dude is to fat with bad knees. Just can't run anymore (although he did steal a base yesterday). But catchers suck now and everybody steals 2nd base these days

That's what 'Roids will do to you. Hope that thing does not heal until he is too old to come back.
 

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Ya Barry made a big mistake not going to the AL. He can still hit but he is a joke in the outfield now. I saw that play he hurt himself on. He looked like an old man running to make the play....dude is to fat with bad knees. Just can't run anymore (although he did steal a base yesterday). But catchers suck now and everybody steals 2nd base these days

I think I am the only guy in the world who likes him.
 

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That's what 'Roids will do to you. Hope that thing does not heal until he is too old to come back.

No not to many 43 yr old power hitters left playing. Roids or no roids.

Bullets I like Barry also....but he should have gone to the AL. He ain't gonna make it thru the year without looking like a fool once a week or more on defense
 

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pops i have a question on your 2006 sheets. you have a pivot table showing average runs scored for each o/u line. For example when the o/u is 9 the avg runs scored was 9.7, but when the game went over it was 13.5. when it went under the avg was 5.5. My question is what use do you make of that information? how does it factor in to capping?

here's the way i liked to look at those diff pivot tables. eg in the 9 13.5 example you mentioned is with the filters in col B set to all, as my start point. when my summary's showed a 60/40 or 40/60 game i would than go to these various pivot tables and start using the various filters to see if the teams involved resulted in an major changes to those avg. day/night always first, al nl etc and see what effect each had on that number to try and identify where the game or series was in relation to those avgs. same when for all the other pivots as well

in mlb we know that there are so many things that can happen, so what i tried to always look for are the games that we either in the 60 or 40 bracket and bet with those numbers to try and achieve that w/l % as well

btw: the * were incomplete games
 

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I would think they all do now. That article is old and when the umpires signed the new collective bargaining agreement in 2004 they dropped all opposition to the system.[/quote

They do NOT all have it (according to the show I was listening to), I have made a few inquires, if anyone knows which do not..post it.
 

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The only thing that would be relevent about the ump tape would be if they said they would fire them if they did not adhere to the strike zone. That stuff was in place last year and they did not follow. So unless someone shakes a big stick I think it is meaning less. Ump calls em as he sees them. Some might give the the outside pitch then maybe not.
 

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Fucking Phillies, come on, being a fan of them, I had to hit them today and of course, they are playing par for the course, come on dick heads.
 

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keep an eye on small schedule days like today. i noticed last year that when every team was not playing a bunch of those days would have either all overs or all unders. right now were looking at one of those days, so far all the games have gone under.

the ov/un for this year a close to 50/50 vs last year many more overs up till the all star break. my friend here that makes the lines for mlb told me before the season that he expected more under games than overs

also one of the areas i noticed from last year on new series, betting would tend to follow what happened in the previous series that the team played it.

there's my blasts from the past

enjoy
 

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Most of the articles on the web are dated regarding this Questic system, for monitering the umps. Did find a 1500 game sample which showed VERY LITTLE diff in parks with/without. So probably not worth considering, unless we knew a certain ump was being called on the carpet, seems unlikely that data will be avail.

with without
9.29 runs per game 9.27

62.46 % of strikes 62.67

Keep fishing guys..............gl
 

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Most of the articles on the web are dated regarding this Questic system, for monitering the umps. Did find a 1500 game sample which showed VERY LITTLE diff in parks with/without. So probably not worth considering, unless we knew a certain ump was being called on the carpet, seems unlikely that data will be avail.

with without
9.29 runs per game 9.27

62.46 % of strikes 62.67

Keep fishing guys..............gl

i think your got a dead end there. more interested to know what the teams are hiding by not telling humidity numbers. I think teams are cooking the air depending on who they are playing next, just like colorado did last year with the balls
 

smooth not rich
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keep an eye on small schedule days like today. i noticed last year that when every team was not playing a bunch of those days would have either all overs or all unders. right now were looking at one of those days, so far all the games have gone under.

the ov/un for this year a close to 50/50 vs last year many more overs up till the all star break. my friend here that makes the lines for mlb told me before the season that he expected more under games than overs

also one of the areas i noticed from last year on new series, betting would tend to follow what happened in the previous series that the team played it.

there's my blasts from the past

enjoy
pops not sure I get the "betting would tend to follow......." meaning hot team from prev. series would be bet in next?
 

smooth not rich
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Anyone watching Philly? Wondering what inning the shade either crosses home or the mound????
 

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Right now bottom of the 4th and the home plate is shaded, sun on the mound but plate is shaded.

These fucks cannot get runs across the plate, this team pisses me off.
 

smooth not rich
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Thank a lot! The Cubs play a lot of 2:20 starts and around the 5th or 6th the shade goes across home and for the rest of the game it is really tough on the hitters. So I am tracking starts between 2-5, as I think most parks would have a similiar situation. Combine that with the right ump etc...maybe we come up with something.
 

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No problem Sin, I will keep an eye out for the early Phils games and let you know when the shade comes across the plate. They are on most of the time here locally.
 
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