Capping MLB 2007 #101a Ov/Un plus Las Vegas Q&A

[UncleSteve]

You guys do great work. Great. I can't add much to your complete coverage of MLB, but here is what I try to do once the pitchers have had a couple of starts and some stats get posted up:

I try to play by this simple (I guess it's simple) formula, it's weighed heavily on pitching:

1. Pitcher must have more wins AND less losses than opponent.
2. Pitcher must have a better ERA than opponent
3. Team must have more wins and less losses than opponent.
4. Team must have a winning record when said pitcher starts for them.
5. Pitcher must have a winning history (more wins than losses) vs. team (if that info is available).
6. IF this criteria is met, then I go to last three starts. Pitcher must have a winning record for LAST THREE STARTS and have a better hits/walks percentage than opponent pitcher. If ALL criteria is met, then this is my pick.

I then compare all of the matchups for the day and make my selections by seeing who has the best numbers from the data.

One more deal = I play ALL the American League teams vs. National League when inter-div games start. AL KILLED the NL last year, worked very well.

One thing I haven't been able to figure out how to prevent (maybe someone could help me on this).

Got the pitcher, got the best matchup, got the best team, got a lead going into the 8th inning. A bullpen guy comes in and ~WHAM~ gives up all the hard work by everyone. Or a closer forgets to shut the god damn door!!!

Any ideas on how to figure that one out ? I sometimes try and see if a team's STUD closer pitched the night before and maybe factor this in (thought on this is = he won't pitch tonight, right?)

Any help on this is appreciated = thanks in advance.

Uncle STeve (getting ready for a long MLB fight) Kudos to all your hard workers - I'll help if I can add anything of significance.

 

[sinatrac]

You guys do great work. Great. I can't add much to your complete coverage of MLB, but here is what I try to do once the pitchers have had a couple of starts and some stats get posted up:

I try to play by this simple (I guess it's simple) formula, it's weighed heavily on pitching:

1. Pitcher must have more wins AND less losses than opponent.
2. Pitcher must have a better ERA than opponent
3. Team must have more wins and less losses than opponent.
4. Team must have a winning record when said pitcher starts for them.
5. Pitcher must have a winning history (more wins than losses) vs. team (if that info is available).
6. IF this criteria is met, then I go to last three starts. Pitcher must have a winning record for LAST THREE STARTS and have a better hits/walks percentage than opponent pitcher. If ALL criteria is met, then this is my pick.

I then compare all of the matchups for the day and make my selections by seeing who has the best numbers from the data.

One more deal = I play ALL the American League teams vs. National League when inter-div games start. AL KILLED the NL last year, worked very well.

One thing I haven't been able to figure out how to prevent (maybe someone could help me on this).

Got the pitcher, got the best matchup, got the best team, got a lead going into the 8th inning. A bullpen guy comes in and ~WHAM~ gives up all the hard work by everyone. Or a closer forgets to shut the god damn door!!!

Any ideas on how to figure that one out ? I sometimes try and see if a team's STUD closer pitched the night before and maybe factor this in (thought on this is = he won't pitch tonight, right?)

Any help on this is appreciated = thanks in advance.

Uncle STeve (getting ready for a long MLB fight) Kudos to all your hard workers - I'll help if I can add anything of significance.

If you have offshore, you can bet the 1st 5 innings.

 

[pops69]

pops not sure I get the "betting would tend to follow......." meaning hot team from prev. series would be bet in next?

eg. mets sweep, score a bunch vs cards and cards score nothing. so most will bet mets and against cards, ov mets, under cards. kind of like when you take a shit and only remember the rough paper sliding down your ass.

 

[pops69]

one more run and could have the first fade winner for today. braves line opened at 10 ov un and went to 9-. nine runs now 6th inning so just need one mo

 

[EasyMoney9]

Which books offer 5 inning bets? Can't find it on BetJam unless I'm blind.

Cap'n and pops thanks for the excel sheets.

 

[manchild]

Which books offer 5 inning bets? Can't find it on BetJam unless I'm blind.

Cap'n and pops thanks for the excel sheets.

Bookmaker

 

[pops69]

Which books offer 5 inning bets? Can't find it on BetJam unless I'm blind.

Cap'n and pops thanks for the excel sheets.

check the link below for a list of some that are report them

http://www.pointspread.com/liveodds...1&type=1hf&getmonth=04&getday=02&getyear=2007

won philly over, but lost kc ov fade so 1-1 so far. no stogies yet

 

[EasyMoney9]

Thanks pops and manchild.

 

[pops69]

Washington, Hoye HP. looking good, one left to go, hopefully it will make my day in anaheim

 

[Hamilton]

I know it's a late post, but just got home. The SS showed Meals behind the plate in NY tonight, but due to the rainout MLB.com is showing Poncino. FYI.
Ham.

 

[sinatrac]

Never bet under NYY..line move faders BEWARE.

 

[EasyMoney9]

Washington, Hoye HP. looking good, one left to go, hopefully it will make my day in anaheim

Pops you hoping for Eddings in Anaheim?

Capn- What was the winning % on 1.0+ MOV's for sides last year?

 

[bunbury]

hey fellas, been about a week or so. working for the man during tax season aint no walk in the park, let me tell you ...but I sure im ready to contribute to this thread with what I can. I see Geppi has me penciled in for the last week of April for a little grunt work; Ill be ready to rock.

somebody mentioned pettite is a bad april pitcher at 4 and 9. he's at -300 today. dont care if its the drays. its either drays or no play. -300, yikes.

i only have one play today, besides any root action of course. like hensley with the pads a lot. look for him to have a good outing against a weak giant lineup. Hensley has been very sharp in two career starts against the Giants, allowing two earned runs and eights hits over 12 2-3 innings. Morris coming off of a year where his ERA was 5, the highest in his career.

pads going for the sweep of the giants (and bochy, their old manager) oh how sweet would it be for them to start the season off like that!

fyi, a guy at mad jax posts umpire info, weather, SP's and lineups in one consolidated thread. not much other info other than that though. cant remember his name but it ends with 555. (cant check now cause that site is blocked here at work) good to check out if we dont have our dailys ready although it looks like Nick has been doing a good job!

 

[pops69]

Pops you hoping for Eddings in Anaheim?

Capn- What was the winning % on 1.0+ MOV's for sides last year?

strong possibility of that happening, but dont know yet for sure. only stop he would go, other that they sit out until tomorrow. will know 4 sure in a hour or so

 

[bunbury]

as an addendum, i was checking the captains sheet and it looks as though emmel (hp) and hensley teamed up as recently as september of last year in a very low scoring affair. dont know if that means anything or if that has been tracked but that can only help, I would think. you know, pitcher feeling comfortable with a blue's strike zone, etc. dont know, just thinking out loud.....

 

[CapnHandi]

Pops you hoping for Eddings in Anaheim?

Capn- What was the winning % on 1.0+ MOV's for sides last year?

If you would've bet $100 on all of them with no fav's of more than -130, you would've been +20 units or around +$2k for the year.

 

[bullets]

Washington, Hoye HP. looking good, one left to go, hopefully it will make my day in anaheim

3 in the top of the 1st will make those under plays pucker a little.

 

[pops69]

yep, it was one of those nice 9 to 8- line moves, maybe i'll get to cash this on.

yanks moved back to the 10 spot so nothing there

 

[pops69]

fuck, cuzzi

 

[EasyMoney9]

If you would've bet $100 on all of them with no fav's of more than -130, you would've been +20 units or around +$2k for the year.

That's solid. Thanks Capn, keep up the good work, gonna shoot you an email later tonight got a few questions for ya.