can u really make a LIving SPORTS GAMBLING ?

[ganchrow]

If you start with 10,000$ and bet 1% per game and hit 60% at -110 and make 1000 bets/year, guess what you have in 10 years? $87,600,000,000 That's 87 billion.

i come up with $20.5 billion, but your point is correct.

1.0014545 raised to the 10,000th power on a $10k bankroll = $20.5b

In fact, to calculate the growth of a bankroll over a time it is not correct to simply raise 1 plus edge times bet size to the number of trials power. This should be clear when you consider the results obtained using this method when hitting 50% over 2 trials given payout odds of +99,900 (decimal: 1,000.0), and a 1% of bankroll bet, implying an expected return of 499% of bankroll per bet (obviously completely unrealistic, but I'm just trying to demonstrate a point).

By the methodology given above the resulting bankroll would be $10,000*(1+499%)² = $358,801.

However, the actual resulting bankroll would only be $108,801.^*

In general after n bets, np of which were winners, a starting bankroll of B₀, a wager per trial of X (as percentage of bankroll), and decimal odds of O, the resulting bankroll, B is given by:

B = B₀ * (1 + (O-1)*X)^np * (1-X)^n(1-p)
​

Hence, the actual resulting bankroll starting with $10,000 after hitting 60% across 10,000 bets, at payout odds of -110 (decimal: 1.9091) would be:

B = $10,000 * (1 + (1.9091-1)*1%)^6,000 * (1-1%)^4,000
≈ $13,259,897,312

​

I discuss this in my article on Kelly and expected growth.

<hr>
^* If you win the 1st bet and lose the 2nd:

Bankroll after winning 1st bet
= $10,000 + 1%*$10,000*999
= $109,900

Bankroll after losing 2nd bet
= $109,900 - 1%*$109,900
= $108,801
​

If, you were to lose the 1st bet and win the 2nd your results would of course be identical:

Bankroll after losing 1st bet
= $10,000 - 1%*$10,000
= $9,900

Bankroll after losing 2nd bet
= $109,900 + 1%*$9,900*999
= $108,801
​

 

[ganchrow]

f that calculator does not come out +EV, it is erroneous...

Given that I provided the "optimal result" figures for the calculator, you can be assured they're correct.

 

[dick7470]

You need 3 things to make money betting sports:

1. A good sized bankroll. I would recommend $50,000 with bonuses or $100,000 with no bonuses if you don't wish to have a job too.
2. Multiple books.
3. Ability not to overbet.


-Sean

Sean,

This all looks correct but what about the actual bets? Given 1 thru 3, do they matter without the ability to pick winner?

thanks

 

[cd329]

Its really funny how you can find threads like this one on every single gambling board on the net.
First off all the guys who say they can make a living betting sports all year long are lying their asses off and i would bet that they dont have a pot to piss in or a window to throw it out of.
The truth is maybe 5 percent of all gamblers in the world make money betting, so that right there should tell you how hard it is to do. Now if you think your in that 5 percent catergory, my hat goes off to you and i say congrats.
On top of that you need a huge bankroll and have to bet large amounts on each play to make a living at it.
Also if you had a huge bankroll like 500k, there are way better ways to use that money to make more money, then risking betting on some outcome of a sporting event.
Lastly you just gotta love the guys who say they can win every year for the next 40 years in every sport, now thats fuckin funny. If you have a good day job, dont quit it, thinking you can earn it gambling, because gambling has been around for thousands of years and in the end, the house always wins in everything, cause the percentages are stacked in their favor to always come out that way.
Watch how tough it becomes to pick winners when you are needing those winners to pay your mortage, grocery bill, health insurance, etc etc.
In closing, all of us gamblers dream of doing nothing but making a living off gambling, becoming rich and living the good life like professional bettor billy walters, but truth is for 95 percent of us in the world, its always gonna be just a dream and nothing more. In the end we are all just kidding ourselves.
good luck everybody

 

[wilheim]

...

 

[flacapper]

.

 

[MREAST]

Lots of good answers, but what it comes down to is DON'T GAMBLE...INVEST!!!! Gamblers will wager everyday because they need the action, and need to see the money rise. An investor, picks for value in the line, and dumps down on the advantage only. A gambler looks for his account to rise, the investor is intereted in his ROI! The difference is simple, a gambler calls and asks what is your winning percentage, an investor calls and wants to know your ROI. I want the guy looking for ROI, he can be helped, the other guy will lose no matter what percentage you hit!

 

[bobsimmons]

Does Pinnacle Pay the Same Person Year After Year?

Here is the question to be answered. Please assume his system works as I am more concerned about whether Pinnacle would pay out monthly $1,000:


Question to be answered:
ASSUMING HIS SYSTEM WORKS, WOULD PINNACLE LIKELY PAY HIM MONTH AFTER MONTH AND YEAR AFTER YEAR IF HE IS ONLY PULLING $1,000 PER MONTH OUT OF THAT SPORTS BOOK?



Has anyone on this forum, who has been using sports betting as a way of making a living, had good experience with Pinnacle paying you monthly year after year after year?


I have a friend that I am concerned about.....


He wants to go and live in Ecuador where you can survive easily on $795 per month as a single person and he wants to place $25,000 USD value of Norwegian Kroner into Pinnacle Sports and use his proven system to generate $1,000 USD value per month which will allow him to live free of the control of the evil empire to the north that he wants to escape from.


I would hate for him to get down there and have Pinnacle limit his bets. He must not be invested in a sports book that limits or cancels his betting privileges.


ASSUMING HIS SYSTEM WORKS, WOULD PINNACLE LIKELY PAY HIM MONTH AFTER MONTH AND YEAR AFTER YEAR IF HE IS ONLY PULLING $1,000 PER MONTH OUT OF THAT SPORTS BOOK?


Thanks, Bob (<)<

 

[SayHeyKid]

First and foremost, Pinnacle is one of the few books that takes all action and very seldomly limits customers in terms of how much they can wager there. That said, what you bet has alot to do with when books limit you. If you're betting NBA, NFL, Tennis, or other semi "popular" sports Pinnacle won't limit you.

However, if you're focusing on obscure international sports, obscure soccer matches, college basketball totals, or challenger tennis and winning very consistantly almost every book out there will put a limit on you, including Pinny if you bet and win enough. Pinnacle is one of the last books that will limit their customers though, I'd tell your friend to take his chance.

 

[mrstein]

I agree with the Kid..........He will have no issues with Pinny.

Stein

 

[timotinbowen]

Also if you had a huge bankroll like 500k, there are way better ways to use that money to make more money, then risking betting on some outcome of a sporting event.

Care to point me in the direction of one of these "way better ways"?

I started betting sports three years ago for about $100/game, and after losing for 6 months, began to take it seriously (more seriously than anything i've ever done). If I told you what my unit size is now, you wouldn't believe me (don't ask, you really wouldn't believe me). Certainly I've run above expectation, including an extraordinary CBB season last year, but I promise this can be an extremely +EV venture. Having said that, many don't know what it takes, or seem incapable of balancing their emotions/workload required to build a bankroll.

In 6 months I'll be moving to Vegas, and buying a house (paid for with sports betting winnings). I'll take advantage of the early line posts at the major books for as long as my action is welcomed.

Be careful making blanket statements about the unbeatability of sports gambling. It's very true that NEARLY everyone will lose (keeping books in business), but there are huge market inefficiencies that can be exploited.

 

[mamatried]

Care to point me in the direction of one of these "way better ways"?

I started betting sports three years ago for about $100/game, and after losing for 6 months, began to take it seriously (more seriously than anything i've ever done). If I told you what my unit size is now, you wouldn't believe me (don't ask, you really wouldn't believe me). Certainly I've run above expectation, including an extraordinary CBB season last year, but I promise this can be an extremely +EV venture. Having said that, many don't know what it takes, or seem incapable of balancing their emotions/workload required to build a bankroll.

In 6 months I'll be moving to Vegas, and buying a house (paid for with sports betting winnings). I'll take advantage of the early line posts at the major books for as long as my action is welcomed.

Be careful making blanket statements about the unbeatability of sports gambling. It's very true that NEARLY everyone will lose (keeping books in business), but there are huge market inefficiencies that can be exploited.

VERY TRUE. I've given notice to my employer, and will be quitting my job on 12/31 to pursue sports gambling as a full time vocation (with some poker on the side). And I have a 4 1/2 year old son to support.

 

[Iceman]

Moving to Vegas to do this fulltime is completely worthless unless you have the hook up from credit people out here. Betting early and often is way easier online not to mention how much you can accomplish going this route (betting from home).

 

[mrstein]

Iceman............

Is 100% correct. So many people think by moving to vegas its going to change the way they bet and they will have the upper hand. FALSE.

Been here 40 years. Books dont look out for your best intrest.

If you are thinking of really retiring and soley looking to play action the rest of your life. Suggestion move to south-east Asia EX: PHILLIPPINES or Thailand and open up accounts with Pinnacle and Bet365 and you will be much better off and your cost of living will be much less and there are more women there then you will even know what to do ????

In other words your quality of Life will be Very Nice Indeed.

Stay away from Vegas you will go broke FAST............

Stein

 

[EzMoney012]

iceman............

Is 100% correct. So many people think by moving to vegas its going to change the way they bet and they will have the upper hand. False.

Been here 40 years. Books dont look out for your best intrest.

If you are thinking of really retiring and soley looking to play action the rest of your life. Suggestion move to south-east asia ex: Phillippines or thailand and open up accounts with pinnacle and bet365 and you will be much better off and your cost of living will be much less and there are more women there then you will even know what to do ????

In other words your quality of life will be very nice indeed.

Stay away from vegas you will go broke fast............

Stein

 

[Peeig]

Iceman............

Is 100% correct. So many people think by moving to vegas its going to change the way they bet and they will have the upper hand. FALSE.

Been here 40 years. Books dont look out for your best intrest.

If you are thinking of really retiring and soley looking to play action the rest of your life. Suggestion move to south-east Asia EX: PHILLIPPINES or Thailand and open up accounts with Pinnacle and Bet365 and you will be much better off and your cost of living will be much less and there are more women there then you will even know what to do ????

In other words your quality of Life will be Very Nice Indeed.

Stay away from Vegas you will go broke FAST............

Stein

I could see moving to Vegas as you have access to some of the big competitions........and if you do any other advantage gambling or want to take advantage of promotions (7X points days etc).......moving to Vegas would be worth it to you.

 

[Card32]

I know one thing it would be stressful as hell

 

[mr.inpak]

for me personally scalping and middling

 

[MaxValue]

looking back at this post...and fast forward 3 years...much harder to make a living on sports-betting because of the hassle of getting money in and out of the offshore books.

Curious to see how posters like Sean 1 are still doing and if all the current offshore money obstacles have changed the way they think about this topic?

 

[bobsimmons]

Any current comments added to this discussion would be appreciated. Also, which books besides Pinny do not close down or limit the accounts of consistent takers of money out of the books would be most appreciated.