sean winbet iceman
enjoyed reading your posts on this subject. have been sports betting prof since 1988 but more fortunate as some. for a couple years after did work appx 20 hrs a week as a system analyst and my wife had a decent job with all the perks so took some pressure off. never had children. but it was a solitary life and we missed so much. when i quit my job about 1993 and just wagered i put in like 60 hrs a week. neighbors would mention getting up n middle of night to go to bathroom and light would be on in my office. wife and i cdidn't take vacations without my laptop downloading data and capping first few hours of the day. then have to stop what we were doing to go call the book. but it was profitable and i enjoyed it but it took a toll on her. now i only bet nba bases and hockey. have much more free time. like you i cap all math. make my own lines in bases and hockey and look for a certain amt of overlay and in nba use math to look for a c.o.w. chance of winning vs the spread. never ever touch nfl. it is vegas biggest money maker and so few plays hard to find weakness in lines. this is last year of nba as not as profitable as in yrs past with drugs,suspensions and changes to the game.
i have a separate br for each sport and bet 2% on a daily basis. ex. start 10k bet 6 games at 200 win 4 next day bet 2% of 10580 etc. also
beleive one must keep astute records of their performance and if one can't maintain a 55% win % in said sport should give it up. all plays are wagered equally none stronger than the other. in ml sports bases pucks use a lot of r/r parlays to cut down on vig.
but the keys to betting and making a living are:
(1) br can't be under capitalized
(2) money managent
(3) discipline
(4) very important...confidence and intestinal fortitude. there will be losing days ,,plenty of them have to shrug them off and go on remember a
58% capper will have only appx. 210 winning days and lose 155 of 'em
one thing one should do which i know they don't is analyze your winning bets as much if not more than your losing ones. most times when you lose a bet you can almost see why.turnovers, missed ft etc but one should try to find some common factors in each win. altho i use the spreadsheet for my lines i like to see why i won the bet. as sports betting seems to be getting tougher and tougher have started looking at horses and over past 5+ mos have been able to maintain a 10% profit on my br almost daily
but so far only on paper. just can't quite pull the trigger and go to horses and drop sports. but as i look at my records and the less amt of time required hope to be able to do so by first of next month.
good luck to all
enjoyed reading your posts on this subject. have been sports betting prof since 1988 but more fortunate as some. for a couple years after did work appx 20 hrs a week as a system analyst and my wife had a decent job with all the perks so took some pressure off. never had children. but it was a solitary life and we missed so much. when i quit my job about 1993 and just wagered i put in like 60 hrs a week. neighbors would mention getting up n middle of night to go to bathroom and light would be on in my office. wife and i cdidn't take vacations without my laptop downloading data and capping first few hours of the day. then have to stop what we were doing to go call the book. but it was profitable and i enjoyed it but it took a toll on her. now i only bet nba bases and hockey. have much more free time. like you i cap all math. make my own lines in bases and hockey and look for a certain amt of overlay and in nba use math to look for a c.o.w. chance of winning vs the spread. never ever touch nfl. it is vegas biggest money maker and so few plays hard to find weakness in lines. this is last year of nba as not as profitable as in yrs past with drugs,suspensions and changes to the game.
i have a separate br for each sport and bet 2% on a daily basis. ex. start 10k bet 6 games at 200 win 4 next day bet 2% of 10580 etc. also
beleive one must keep astute records of their performance and if one can't maintain a 55% win % in said sport should give it up. all plays are wagered equally none stronger than the other. in ml sports bases pucks use a lot of r/r parlays to cut down on vig.
but the keys to betting and making a living are:
(1) br can't be under capitalized
(2) money managent
(3) discipline
(4) very important...confidence and intestinal fortitude. there will be losing days ,,plenty of them have to shrug them off and go on remember a
58% capper will have only appx. 210 winning days and lose 155 of 'em
one thing one should do which i know they don't is analyze your winning bets as much if not more than your losing ones. most times when you lose a bet you can almost see why.turnovers, missed ft etc but one should try to find some common factors in each win. altho i use the spreadsheet for my lines i like to see why i won the bet. as sports betting seems to be getting tougher and tougher have started looking at horses and over past 5+ mos have been able to maintain a 10% profit on my br almost daily
but so far only on paper. just can't quite pull the trigger and go to horses and drop sports. but as i look at my records and the less amt of time required hope to be able to do so by first of next month.
good luck to all
Max, c.o.w. is just that chance of winning. it gives me a win probability. i look for games with a c.o.w. of 58% and better. there are many ways to come up with it. thank god for computers and excel. one method i use is with m.o.v. margin of victory. i use this to determine what a point is worth, ex: say dal has a m.o.v. of 13 and portland has a m.o.v. of -12 added together = 25 you add a plus and a minus and you subtract minus minus and plus plus. but anyway take that 25 and divide into 50 =2 so a pt. is worth 2.00 why use 50? well every team has a 50% c.o.w. early on.
now if mia has a mov of 8 and bos is -4 then mia is 12 pts better so say line is mia -8 take the 12-8 =4 4x2.00 =8 add to the 50 and we get 58% so in this scenario i know every game with 4pts or more diff has a 58% c.o.w. but this is only one of the methods i use. also incorporate h/c adv. and p/rs (h/c home court adv. prs power ratings) hope this clears things
as far as r/r parlays that's round-robin parlays with ml games like to straight bet up to and inc. -160 again using math i make my own line using each team's off and def figures. if i determine ottowa is -218 vs carolina and the line is -185 then i have an overlay and want to bet it but it exceeds my -160 criteria so i put this game along with others of same nature in parlays.
hope i answered your ????? gl
max, back to nba and m.o.v. i take the highest team which in ex, is dal and add the lowest team which in ex, was port. can be any team as long as you find the hi amd low
now if mia has a mov of 8 and bos is -4 then mia is 12 pts better so say line is mia -8 take the 12-8 =4 4x2.00 =8 add to the 50 and we get 58% so in this scenario i know every game with 4pts or more diff has a 58% c.o.w. but this is only one of the methods i use. also incorporate h/c adv. and p/rs (h/c home court adv. prs power ratings) hope this clears things
as far as r/r parlays that's round-robin parlays with ml games like to straight bet up to and inc. -160 again using math i make my own line using each team's off and def figures. if i determine ottowa is -218 vs carolina and the line is -185 then i have an overlay and want to bet it but it exceeds my -160 criteria so i put this game along with others of same nature in parlays.
hope i answered your ????? gl
max, back to nba and m.o.v. i take the highest team which in ex, is dal and add the lowest team which in ex, was port. can be any team as long as you find the hi amd low
Last edited:
Yes and it is simple how.........Find an above average starting freshman hoops player or QB at a low tier D1 school which posts lines for their games(say Arkansas State).....and hook up with his dirty ass to fix several games over the next four years. PRESTO.....You're a millionaire!!! LOL.
Ice the thread is can u make a living betting sports. none that bets sports for a living can do so on 53%. you are barely breaking even. in above sample of 3000 plays at 200 a game would make appx. 7500.00 not anywhere acceptable to anyone betting for a living. at 55% a decent 33k
however,that is basket and fb a straight -110 line. even at 55% and if have 5 or more games must use some parlays to make 50k plus.
now dgb mentioned something about betting the ml. no way in hell can make it in bases and hockey with 53-55% unless you have a good method to pick some dogs with. betting a favs at -150 one would have to hit 60% to break just even. guys i know bet up to -160 so we are talking high 60%-70% and anything higher than -160 use r/r parlays.
however,that is basket and fb a straight -110 line. even at 55% and if have 5 or more games must use some parlays to make 50k plus.
now dgb mentioned something about betting the ml. no way in hell can make it in bases and hockey with 53-55% unless you have a good method to pick some dogs with. betting a favs at -150 one would have to hit 60% to break just even. guys i know bet up to -160 so we are talking high 60%-70% and anything higher than -160 use r/r parlays.
