can u really make a LIving SPORTS GAMBLING ?

[WVU]

Other than my huge moneyline bets on Florida on this year's college football championship I am not a winning gambler. That was only to try to clear out some Neteller accounts. I do not cap. I do not gamble. I have probably made as much as anyone on this site though. I can guarantee that pure cappers have made no where near as much as pure advantage players.

Cappers still need a bit of luck to win. Pure advantage gamblers just need to get paid when they win. Luck is not in the equation.

 

[sports_quant]

My excel spreadsheet says 87B. I wonder what I am doing wrong... I'm using the formula:

A1*.01*.6-A1*.011*.4 to calculate net gain per bet and then just go down from there... Sean

Sean - i figured it out.... in your example, you're actually betting 1.1% of your bankroll per bet, not 1.0%. What an incredible difference for such a small change in unit size!

 

[sean1]

I don't think so... Every bet has a 60% chance of winning (1%) and a 40% chance of losing (1.1% for the vig)

Sean

 

[doncrizz]

guys guys guys.... pick up the book called "smart money" by michael konik.

http://www.amazon.com/Smart-Money-Bettors-Bookies-Millions/dp/0743277139

Basically the take home message here is... to make a killing in sports betting you MUST:

1) Have a comupter program that spits out better lines than vegas does.

2) Find a place to bet that will let you keep betting if you win.

3) Always try to bet the best line (shopping)

From what he says, #2 is the hardest one. He had to make up multiple fake ID's so he could place the amount he wanted... but the future in sports betting may be in betting exchanges where you get softer lines and can't ever get kicked out.

#1 is tough because you have to either have access to data that vegas doesnt use or use a more advanced prediction system. This requires either a degree in computer science or a genious friend of yours (as in the book).

and #3 is just time consuming and is not practical for those who want to make a living sports betting .. because ppl who do this dont wanna work a 9-5 they wanna sit on their *sses and make money.

But seriously, go and read the book, it will totaly change your outlook on sports betting.

 

[sports_quant]

I don't think so... Every bet has a 60% chance of winning (1%) and a 40% chance of losing (1.1% for the vig)

Sean

Sean - we're saying the same thing. In the scenario you present, you're wager amount is 1.1%, not 1%. i.e. to win 1%, you have to actually wager 1.1%.:toast:

 

[sports_quant]

..... #1 is tough because you have to either have access to data that vegas doesnt use or use a more advanced prediction system. This requires either a degree in computer science or a genious friend of yours (as in the book). ....

Don:
Your post is spot on! It's not that the successful players have access to data that Vegas doesnt. It's that (just as you said) they use a more advanced prediction system. In other words, they take all the public info that is available, and come up with a more accurate line than Vegas does.

How do they do this? Advanced statistical analysis. I am working on just such a program myself. Will it work? We'll see.

 

[sean1]

Wow - sure is a big difference what 1.1 to 1 does vs 1 to .91

Sean

 

[dr03]

http://forums.therx.com/showthread.php?t=433954&highlight=lost+bankroll+blackjack

this thread is the reason why you can't make a living sports gambling. thats 's blackjack, but I've read it time after time with sports to.

 

[WVU]

As long as people are going to try to make a living, then offshore joints are happy.

 

[sports_quant]

http://forums.therx.com/showthread.php?t=433954&highlight=lost+bankroll+blackjack

this thread is the reason why you can't make a living sports gambling. thats 's blackjack, but I've read it time after time with sports to.

You can make a living sports gambling. The market is inefficient. There's a reason that there are syndicates out there who bet, and win, millions of $.

 

[doncrizz]

sports quant:

I can think of serveral different statistics that don't go into vegas's line making equation. I'm not going to go into them but

for the rest of you who are still naive enough to think no one makes a living betting on sports. They are called "betting syndicates" and they employ people that are smarter than the ones setting the lines. They have more advanced software that predicts the lines better. They dont bet NFL because NFL is almost impossible to beat, because books concentrate most of thier efforts on these lines as they are the most heavily bet. NBA, CBB, MLB, and college football is where its at boys n girls... more data, more games, more opportunity.

 

[SportsKing]

Stay away from ALL online casinos. Guaranteed that you will lose long term on average.

Sports gambling is different. Very rare to have a true sharp though.

 

[SportsKing]

Stay away from ALL online casinos. Guaranteed that you will lose long term on average.

Sports gambling is different. Very rare to have a true sharp though.

I mean one who wins long term on average without middling, scalping, or bonus whoring.

 

[hellokitty]

Wow - sure is a big difference what 1.1 to 1 does vs 1 to .91

Sean

Correct me if I'm wrong but:
- this also assumes you increase your bet size after EVERY BET, regardless of the outcome? i.e. if first bet is $110, next bet is $110 x expected return, so on and so forth. So even if you have a 0-1 day, next day on the second bet your bet would be increased to the "second level"
- if the above is true, then if you bet 10 games on a particular day, each consecutive bet gets larger, even without knowing the outcome

I'm not saying that's a "wrong approach" but that's how the spreadsheet works, is that right?

Also up to a certain point, you'd face a limit imposed by books. Realistically how much can you put down a wager, esp. without Pinnacle? $50,000 across several books?

The calculation "shows the point" but it doesn't entirely reflect a realistic scenario, IMHO, "even if you can hit 60% long run".

 

[tgbn]

I mean one who wins long term on average without middling, scalping, or bonus whoring.

Count me in.
I bet boxing, and can certify there's money to be made there if one is willing to do the research.

I've learned that the most basic thing is to know when not to bet.
Another tip is to shop for the best line.

I will throw you people a bone here; the next month supermatch between Hoya and Mayweather has 85% chances in going the full 12 rounds: that's - 240 odds for you

 

[sean1]

Correct me if I'm wrong but:
- this also assumes you increase your bet size after EVERY BET, regardless of the outcome? i.e. if first bet is $110, next bet is $110 x expected return, so on and so forth. So even if you have a 0-1 day, next day on the second bet your bet would be increased to the "second level"

That is the way you figure out the math.... But obviously, you don't win 60% of a bet in reality... You win 100% of 60% of them.. Thus in reality your wager would go up and down, but the rules of mathematics allow me to solve the problem as described...

It is not ideal for days with 10 bets.

I was just giving an illustration of how proposterous 60% is.


Also up to a certain point, you'd face a limit imposed by books. Realistically how much can you put down a wager, esp. without Pinnacle? $50,000 across several books?

Well no one is betting billions and no one is hitting 60%. If you have a billion to bet, open a book and bet at +110.

The calculation "shows the point" but it doesn't entirely reflect a realistic scenario, IMHO, "even if you can hit 60% long run".

Doesnt matter. No one is hitting 60% in the long run. Even 57% in the long run would make you hundreds of millions of dollars... Less than .1% of bettors hit 54% in the long run.

Sean

 

[fathead]

It Doesn't Seem That Hard

I am a long time Horse bettor, new to sports betting, so maybe I am a bit naive. Sometimes that can be an advantage, though, since you have a more positive outlook, not knowing how easy it is to fail. Here is my take on the subject.

I was forced into sports betting this year due to the Pinnacle closure (I would officially like to thank Pinnacle for pulling out of the US since this introduced me to the wonderful world of NBA betting).

What happened was I moved all my money to CRIS (now BookMaker), since they are the 2nd best Horse book. They gave me a very generous freeplay bonus. But then they said, oh by the way, horses don't count toward rollover. So at first I thought I might be in trouble, but then I am thinking, how hard can it be? I am used to 6 to 12 horse fields. Picking one horse at random you hit maybe 12%. With ATS -110 betting, you hit 50% at random and need about 52.5% to make money. I should at least be able to break even, right?

So I watch the NBA for two weeks, spot some patterns and start betting $500 per game. I meet my rollover after a while and see that I have hit over 60%, making more money on the NBA than I did on the horses during the same period. But this is a slow time of year for horses, so not a good comparison, but anyway, it is an eye opener.

So, I think, why stop? I continue betting. So now I am 65-44 or 59.63% winners, and still doing well. These figures include some bonehead bets that I would not make today, but I left them in to be fair. Really it should be well over 60%. All the while these betpoints are piling up for freeplays which works out to about a 1% rebate if you use the 8 way 3 team parlay to cash them. What is great about this is that the slow period for Horses is during Basketball season, so this is going to be perfect for me.

I suppose it could be just a positive statistical deviation, but it doesn't really seem that hard to beat the NBA at all, compared to what I am used to in the Horses.

I can just imagine what responses I will get on this from the veteran sports bettors. Sheesh.

 

[Aceking]

even Federer loses sometimes .

 

[royalfan]

Other than my huge moneyline bets on Florida on this year's college football championship I am not a winning gambler. That was only to try to clear out some Neteller accounts. I do not cap. I do not gamble. I have probably made as much as anyone on this site though. I can guarantee that pure cappers have made no where near as much as pure advantage players.

Cappers still need a bit of luck to win. Pure advantage gamblers just need to get paid when they win. Luck is not in the equation.

Those that resort to non-ethical tactics like opening up a whole bunch of accounts and screwing people, have a shot to make more, but those doing it legitmately with one account have non shot whatsoever to match those of us that striclty win over an extended period of time.

 

[WVU]

Those that resort to non-ethical tactics like opening up a whole bunch of accounts and screwing people, have a shot to make more, but those doing it legitmately with one account have non shot whatsoever to match those of us that striclty win over an extended period of time.

I kinda figured you would chime in here. I made a killing with just my own account and then adapted with the times and continued to make a killing for me and for others. Don't be hatin.