Bowl Season 2021-2022

[ofred]

Scratch that ECU play. Bowl cancelled. Too bad BC couldn't put together a skeleton squad just enough to play.

1* Air Force +1.5 Louisville's Malik Cunningham will be a handful for AF, just as the triple option AF attack will give Louisville fits. Thought about taking the over, but Air Force uses up so much time on offense, decided not to. Air Force is always a disciplined team, and with extra time to prep, I expect that they'll come up with a way to at least limit Cunningham's runs a bit. Louisville has a number of players injured, transferred or prepping for the draft. Air Force will likely have some tricks up their sleeve, pass more than expected. Two keys DBs for Louisville, Clark and Vance, not with the team. Louisville can get gouged in the run game enough to allow AF to keep the UL offense off the field. Hope so.

1* Auburn/ Houston- under 51 Auburn really doesn't have a good option at QB. Finley's ankle still not allowing him his usual mobility. Freshman QB looks pretty raw. Still, Auburn's defense will be tough for Houston to score on. Houston had an easy schedule, and when they did play a good defense like UC, they were a different offense- not in a good way. I think we'll see a lot of running here, and Houston's run defense is pretty good. Clayton Tune will have to get rid of the ball quickly or get sacked. He is known to hold the ball a bit too long.

 

[ofred]

With WMU in the win column, let's take that 4 units and play...

4.5* Oklahoma -7 Nevada and Florida are lessons that TOO many missing coaches and players are not conducive to likely bowl success. Both teams looked drastically less than they did during the season...although Florida faded late season too. Oklahoma is missing Lincoln Riley and some defensive starters, but Oregon is decimated by players missing. At least 31 scholarship players have not been at bowl practice, and the defense will be a shell of itself. It already had shown weakness in both games with Utah, but also in other games. Oklahoma has pretty much their offense intact, and with Stoops and 10 coaches there, I think they should have a big edge here.

I think having Stoops come back to coach for the bowl game was smart. Oklahoma's season was a pretty good, although not as good as they hoped. Stoops brings some enthusiasm to the team, something to play for. I also think having Kennedy Brooks in the backfield will give the Sooners a nice balance of run/ pass vs. a much weakened defense. For the Ducks, OC Joe Moorhead stuck around to coach for the bowl before leaving for Akron- a step down and a puzzling move for him. But Moorhead has also had recruiting duties for Akron. The Ducks offense does have QB Anthony Brown and RB Travis Dye, but the receiver corps is greatly diminished, some OL are gone, and besides- Brown has had trouble all year getting the ball downfield. Oregon's best option is having Brown run. Oklahoma supposedly has some depth on defense that will help make up for their missing defenders. I just don't see any optimism here at Oregon for this game, and in fact, the whole program seems down in the dumps after Cristobal left, and many players de-committed.

 

[Coaster]

Great calls on WMU, my belated Xmas prezzies.
Thanxs

 

[ofred]

1.5* Minnesota -4 (-114) A pretty good number here considering it's at -5 at some books. Both coaches have had success in their bowl careers. WVU coach Neil Brown had most of his at Troy, where they played some real lightweights in their bowl games. Yet he seems to be making a point of making sure the players enjoy themselves and that seniors get playing time. Pj Fleck, the Gopher coach, has his OC returning, and his team mostly intact. WVU loses their star RB Leddie Brown to NFL Draft prep. Fleck has really done a masterful job at Minnesota considering that the Gophers are an afterthought in the loaded Big 10. They lost their top two RBs, but the young replacements performed very well. His OL is solid. I also prefer Tanner Morgan to WVU QB Jarret Doege. Doege had a few good games this season, but other than their Iowa State game, they were vs. poor defenses. Doege is also a statue in the pocket, easy to sack, and has 33 ints. in his college career.

Minnesota's losses to Illinois and Bowling Green were baffling, but their wins vs. Wisconsin, Purdue and Nebraska..and a shoulda win vs. Iowa where they out-yarded them by 130.... are a sign of how good they can be. The defense really shined unexpectedly. They placed second in the conference in both pass and run defense. West Virginia also had a pretty good defense. They really shined early in the season vs. Oklahoma- although Spencer Rattler was struggling at the time. I don't think Minny will win by a large margin, but I really like how the Big 10 has looked in recent years in bowl games. They are a physical conference more so than the Big 12. I think Fleck and his coaches will have his team ready and excited for this game.

 

[ofred]

Lean: Miss. State -9.5(-120). Gonna kick myself if they crush Texas Tech. Mike Leach gets revenge for Texas Tech screwing him out of money owed- if that's even true.

1* NC State -2 First bowl game for chip Kelly's UCLA team. Couple of defensive starters out for an already mediocre D. However, it's possible that more will be out by tomorrow. Covid tests are pending now that Quantrezz Knight just tested positive with symptoms. NC State also would like to further impress after a 9-3 season in which they lost two nail biters to Miami and Wake. NC State has the much better defense, although UCLA has the edge in the run game. Part of this play is how the PAC 12 has really performed poorly in recent bowl games going back a few years. Oregon State already embarrassed themselves vs. Utah State. NC State has had a grind of a schedule, and to get 9 wins was quite an accomplishment.

 

[ofred]

Upping two plays:
Air Force to 1.5*
NC State to 1.5* Little more juice on both.

 

[919]

1.5* Minnesota -4 (-114) A pretty good number here considering it's at -5 at some books. Both coaches have had success in their bowl careers. WVU coach Neil Brown had most of his at Troy, where they played some real lightweights in their bowl games. Yet he seems to be making a point of making sure the players enjoy themselves and that seniors get playing time. Pj Fleck, the Gopher coach, has his OC returning, and his team mostly intact. WVU loses their star RB Leddie Brown to NFL Draft prep. Fleck has really done a masterful job at Minnesota considering that the Gophers are an afterthought in the loaded Big 10. They lost their top two RBs, but the young replacements performed very well. His OL is solid. I also prefer Tanner Morgan to WVU QB Jarret Doege. Doege had a few good games this season, but other than their Iowa State game, they were vs. poor defenses. Doege is also a statue in the pocket, easy to sack, and has 33 ints. in his college career.

Minnesota's losses to Illinois and Bowling Green were baffling, but their wins vs. Wisconsin, Purdue and Nebraska..and a shoulda win vs. Iowa where they out-yarded them by 130.... are a sign of how good they can be. The defense really shined unexpectedly. They placed second in the conference in both pass and run defense. West Virginia also had a pretty good defense. They really shined early in the season vs. Oklahoma- although Spencer Rattler was struggling at the time. I don't think Minny will win by a large margin, but I really like how the Big 10 has looked in recent years in bowl games. They are a physical conference more so than the Big 12. I think Fleck and his coaches will have his team ready and excited for this game.

If Minn can generate any kind of pressure, WVU will be in serious trouble

 

[Twisted]

Good stuff
Hope you sweep Fred

 

[ofred]

Lean: Miss. State -9.5(-120). Gonna kick myself if they crush Texas Tech. Mike Leach gets revenge for Texas Tech screwing him out of money owed- if that's even true.

1* NC State -2 First bowl game for chip Kelly's UCLA team. Couple of defensive starters out for an already mediocre D. However, it's possible that more will be out by tomorrow. Covid tests are pending now that Quantrezz Knight just tested positive with symptoms. NC State also would like to further impress after a 9-3 season in which they lost two nail biters to Miami and Wake. NC State has the much better defense, although UCLA has the edge in the run game. Part of this play is how the PAC 12 has really performed poorly in recent bowl games going back a few years. Oregon State already embarrassed themselves vs. Utah State. NC State has had a grind of a schedule, and to get 9 wins was quite an accomplishment.

Damn. Thought UCLA would be missing enough players to give NC State the edge, but not so many the game gets cancelled.

 

[ofred]

Air Force, as expected, showing Louisville the unexpected. Some great calls for AF offense. Game far from over, but good start.

1* Maryland -3 (-111) VT's QB and receiver situation is so bad that I can't see them coming from behind in this game, nor converting 3rd and long. I know Maryland's defense will be tested in the run game, but VT's offense might be just too one dimensional. VT lost most of their coaching staff and some key defenders also. Part of this play is a shout out to the Big 10. Maryland got punched by the better teams in the conference, but won the games they should have won. if Maryland's QB can avoid the turnovers, which is not a given, Maryland should win this. Just sensing doom at VT and enthusiasm with Maryland. I cannot bet on a dollar on this VT offense. Even RB Blackshear had his best games vs. garbage ACC defenses like Virginia and Duke. Maryland distributes the ball well offensively, the OL is decent, and they can run the ball well enough to complement the passing game. Bowl games are a one game season, and Maryland will be looking to go 1-0, not thinking of those October beatings to OSU and Michigan.

 

[Coaster]

Thanxs for AF

 

[ofred]

Thanxs for AF

You're welcome. Hope Minny gives us a 3-0 sweep today.

1.5* Clemson -2.5 I like the vibe coming out of Clemson. Seems like even some NFL prospects will play. And DJ Uiagelelei's knee seems to be holding up well at practice. Iowa State will miss Breece Hall, who is also a good receiving threat. Also, not a fan of Brock Purdy. 32 ints. and 18 fumbles at ISU, and feet that get too happy. With Clemson's defensive pressure, his feet might get even happier, and his turnover problem could hurt his team. Clemson will be missing Venable and their OC Tony Elliot. Some Clemson faithful think that Elliot's departure is a good thing. Liked also how Clemson finished the season. They have accepted their lesser season, and are focusing only on this game. Defense will give ISU lots of trouble.

 

[ofred]

3-0 yesterday, and have won last 8 units. Still.. that Army loss hurts. Maryland up to -4.5, Clemson now at -1.5. ??? Will update soon.

3* Tennessee -6 Almost hate to play such a popular pick, with a line that has really jumped so much and lost value. And the SEC has looked bad so far. But a big part of this play is how depleted Purdue is looking. With depletion, comes loss of confidence among the remaining players. Purdue's loss of their stud DL George Karlaftis, a guy that gets double and triple teamed will hurt. Big drop-off to the next DL guys. Now their CB depth, which was already thin, loses a starter. The LT is out(grades?). Most important is high NFL Draft prospect David Bell opting out, and now 2nd best WR, Milton Wright, out. If you've watched Purdue play, the QB is a strict pocket passer, and Bell and Wright seemed to be the only guys getting much separation. With a weak run game already, I have to imagine the Vols will exploit the Purdue QB's immobility.

I also like the enthusiasm and the fast-paced offense Josh Heupel brought to Tenn. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year, but it has been much better than that. The Vols struggled against the best of the SEC, but vs. teams that were comparable to a depleted Purdue team, they shined. Tennessee's D had trouble with mobile QBs, but that shouldn't be an issue here. I think Heupel will have some surprises in store for this game. Tenn. does have their RT out, and 2 CBs- one who is prepping for the draft. The game is in Nashville, and I think Purdue fans are more interested in their excellent basketball team. Nearly a home game for Tenn.

 

[ofred]

1* (little less than 1*) 10 point teaser (-120)
UNC even
Wake -6
Tenn. +4 Just can't pull the trigger on putting much on UNC, the way they can't seem to put anybody away (except maybe Duke). SC has lots of guys missing, but enough on defense and a senior QB to maybe keep the game close. Shane Beamer gets a lot of credit for getting this team to 6-6, while Mack Brown deserves some criticism for getting to only 6-6(and that includes wins over Wofford, Duke and a terrible early season Ga. State team). Howell playing gives UNC the much better QB, so a teaser it is..what the hell.

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

Good luck. Question for me is ....would you rather take UNC to win or SC +20?

 

[Twisted]

Good luck. Question for me is ....would you rather take UNC to win or SC +20?

I think the points seeing how the heels wont break 10 points so teased Cocks to 17 on several tickets.
BOL Gents thnks for the posts

 

[ofred]

Good luck. Question for me is ....would you rather take UNC to win or SC +20?

Yes, good question. After seeing VT and Nevada get hammered, two teams missing legit QBs and other offensive players, I can't even bet on a teaser with some of these underdogs. SC kinda in the same situation.

 

[ofred]

Well, I guess I really under bet Maryland. Anxiously waiting for tonight's game.

3* Wisconsin -6 Never got to see UCLA play and test my theory that the PAC 12 is weak in bowl games. Guess the Ducks might prove that tonight. Wisconsin lost a starting safety to injury, a couple of OL are questionable, and the RB depth is slight behind Braelon Allen. But this Badger team is mostly together in Vegas, even the pro prospects. ASU lost a ton of talent since the end of the season- two top RBs, 2 top CBs, best defender(a LB), only one playmaker left at WR, and a depleted OL. That's not the whole story. I have watched enough PAC 12 football to notice that some teams lack intensity, passion and physicality. Sort of the opposite of the Big 10. USC leads that group, but sometimes Oregon, ASU, Washington, among others, looked not completely "bought in". ASU played pretty bad in the 2nd half of the season, and looked too complacent as they lost. Even Jayden Daniels looked off. His legs will be key here, but honestly, he never faced a D as good as Wisconsin's.

Graham Mertz will also have to be at least a decent game manager. He showed more confidence later in the season. Still, I think the Wisconsin defense and special teams are the big difference here. Coach Paul Chryst has an excellent 5-1 bow record in his last 6 bowls, with the one loss being a game I watched- an unlucky 1 point loss to Oregon. I had the Ducks that game, and felt extremely lucky to win. Wisconsin's energy and team-first attitude wins over an ASU team that only had one signature win- a victory over UCLA on Oct. 2. If Wisky keeps Daniels' from running wild, they win easily.

 

[woodypaige]

With WMU in the win column, let's take that 4 units and play...

4.5* Oklahoma -7 Nevada and Florida are lessons that TOO many missing coaches and players are not conducive to likely bowl success. Both teams looked drastically less than they did during the season...although Florida faded late season too. Oklahoma is missing Lincoln Riley and some defensive starters, but Oregon is decimated by players missing. At least 31 scholarship players have not been at bowl practice, and the defense will be a shell of itself. It already had shown weakness in both games with Utah, but also in other games. Oklahoma has pretty much their offense intact, and with Stoops and 10 coaches there, I think they should have a big edge here.

I think having Stoops come back to coach for the bowl game was smart. Oklahoma's season was a pretty good, although not as good as they hoped. Stoops brings some enthusiasm to the team, something to play for. I also think having Kennedy Brooks in the backfield will give the Sooners a nice balance of run/ pass vs. a much weakened defense. For the Ducks, OC Joe Moorhead stuck around to coach for the bowl before leaving for Akron- a step down and a puzzling move for him. But Moorhead has also had recruiting duties for Akron. The Ducks offense does have QB Anthony Brown and RB Travis Dye, but the receiver corps is greatly diminished, some OL are gone, and besides- Brown has had trouble all year getting the ball downfield. Oregon's best option is having Brown run. Oklahoma supposedly has some depth on defense that will help make up for their missing defenders. I just don't see any optimism here at Oregon for this game, and in fact, the whole program seems down in the dumps after Cristobal left, and many players de-committed.

This one was easy. Then when I read your take, I loved it more. One of the best here.

 

[ofred]

Thanks Woody. On a 9-0 run, +16 units. Hope it continues tomorrow.

1* Pitt/ MSU - over 55.5 (less than 1*, but for bookkeeping purposes a 1* will do). Two awful pass defenses in this game. I'm gonna trust that Nick Patti plays well for Pitt. He's far from a Kenny Pickett, but supposedly he's got mobility, scrambles well before passing, and has the ability to check through his reads. MSU has their best WR back from injury, but loses Kenneth Walker, who's opting out. Considering that both of these defenses are better at run defense, I think we'll see more passes than expected. Pitt cannot expect to keep up without allowing Patti to use a nice bevy of playmakers in the passing game.