6-4 so far, slightly in the black. Fresno was disappointing. Didn't know Ronnie Rivers wasn't playing.
Upping SD State to a 4*. The last half unit at +1. I'd be surprised is this doesn't end up SD State -3 by game time.
3* UNT +3 The MAC is 0-3 in bowl games, although NIU covered. EMU and Toledo looked like s**t. Part of this play is that. The MAC plays terrible defense, and although Miami, OH is in the top 3rd of the conference defensively, it isn't saying much. Kent torched them for 48, Ohio for 33. Still, Miami is a decent defensive team. UNT is the number one Conference USA running team, by far. They outgunned #2 UTSA by 67 yards per game. UNT came on strong 2nd half. After their 17 penalty loss to Marshall, HC Seth Littrell called his team out for playing selfishly. It might have turned the season around. They lost a close game to Liberty that was somewhat decided by 2 turnovers. Then they rattled off 5 straight wins, including beating UTSA handily and UTEP.
This is basically a home game in Frisco. The fans and players seem generally excited to play this game. UNT has recruited well the last few years, and that young talent really seemed to play well 2nd half of 2021. Miami has the advantage in the passing game, but UNT's pass defense played pretty well also 2nd half. UNT has 1,000 yard rusher in Torrey, but their 2 freshmen backups, who play a lot, are threats for break-away runs. They averaged 6 ypc. QB Austin Aune is a decent veteran dual threat although his accuracy is inconsistent. UNT's beatdown of UTSA and the enthusiasm for a semi-home game after a 5 game winning streak, makes the difference here.
Upping SD State to a 4*. The last half unit at +1. I'd be surprised is this doesn't end up SD State -3 by game time.
3* UNT +3 The MAC is 0-3 in bowl games, although NIU covered. EMU and Toledo looked like s**t. Part of this play is that. The MAC plays terrible defense, and although Miami, OH is in the top 3rd of the conference defensively, it isn't saying much. Kent torched them for 48, Ohio for 33. Still, Miami is a decent defensive team. UNT is the number one Conference USA running team, by far. They outgunned #2 UTSA by 67 yards per game. UNT came on strong 2nd half. After their 17 penalty loss to Marshall, HC Seth Littrell called his team out for playing selfishly. It might have turned the season around. They lost a close game to Liberty that was somewhat decided by 2 turnovers. Then they rattled off 5 straight wins, including beating UTSA handily and UTEP.
This is basically a home game in Frisco. The fans and players seem generally excited to play this game. UNT has recruited well the last few years, and that young talent really seemed to play well 2nd half of 2021. Miami has the advantage in the passing game, but UNT's pass defense played pretty well also 2nd half. UNT has 1,000 yard rusher in Torrey, but their 2 freshmen backups, who play a lot, are threats for break-away runs. They averaged 6 ypc. QB Austin Aune is a decent veteran dual threat although his accuracy is inconsistent. UNT's beatdown of UTSA and the enthusiasm for a semi-home game after a 5 game winning streak, makes the difference here.
1.3* Hawaii +9 Is anyone taking the Rainbows after the recent revelations about Todd Graham? Yes, Graham is an a**hole. Yes, he has burned bridges in multiple stops. Now he lost his starting QB and RB to the transfer portal. It's very likely that Graham is a jerk and a pretty good coach. It sounds like he has summed the bleeding a bit by owning up to the toxic culture at Hawaii. Except for the above mentioned pair, it sound like no other key players are leaving. The game is in Hawaii. Hawaii won their last 2 bowl games under Graham as underdogs, last year as 8 point dogs. Memphis will not have their leading receiver who is getting ready for the draft. Memphis also doesn't' run the ball all that well, the defense is mediocre, and playing in Hawaii, they have got a distraction too. Hawaii won two games at the end of the season, at Wyoming by a bunch, and vs.CSU. The defense has improved during the season, they will try everything in this game, and it's up to their freshman QB to at least manage the game without too many mistakes. He does have some experience.
1* UCF +7 (-120) Florida has the more talented team, but that's been true in many of their games this season, and they still played badly much of the time. Just too much going on with Florida. Will the interim coaches play everybody? Emory Jones is supposed to start at QB, even though he has announced he will transfer? Really? Will he share QB duties with the young QBs? UCF has got the stability factor by a lot here, and that will give them the advantage preparing for this game. UCF has nothing to lose as they are the underdog to state powerhouse UF. I just got a sense that Florida will not execute well, will pile up the penalties, and look even worse than their awful 2nd half of the season. Malzahn has prepped numerous Auburn teams for bowl games, and though his record is spotty, he should have his UCF team ready to play.
Hey Fred… I just read an article about Todd Graham. Sounds like the players really dont like him. It was even brought up that he will make 40k bonus if he wins the bowl game. IDK if I trust Hawaii players to give a crap about this game as most, if not all the players want him gone. Motivation sounds to be at an all time low in Hawaii. I get your point as to who would bet on Hawaii after the recent news tho. Would be really hard to put a dollar on Hawaii after what I just read. Haha
Like what?
Hoku, I read the same article. My first instinct was to jump all over Memphis. But on further examination, I think Hawaii +8 or 9 was a good value. Memphis has plenty of flaws and Hawaii is tough at home. The Hawaii QB is the X factor. I think the Hawaii players do not want to lose a home game and will play hard.
another factor is the extended visit time in Hawaii on the islands. I have a buddy who refs MWC and always talks about a number of factors that influence weird game outcomes when Hawaii is at home. Mostly the time zone differences affecting judgement on their end, but more so that visiting teams have trouble staying focused and locked into game prep mode. I always suspected that bowl teams have an extended length of time in HI and that could lead to poor performance. A team from AAC isn't usually a well-oiled program machine like a P5 program should be.
Agree, many times, teams treat this bowl as a reward, a vacation, and are not focused nor driven to win, and Hawaii takes full advantage.
Visitor is in paradise, Hawaii is there already and focuses on football.
Question here is the Hawaii coach lost his team, they say, and the QB and other key players already left...
Visitor is in paradise, Hawaii is there already and focuses on football.
Question here is the Hawaii coach lost his team, they say, and the QB and other key players already left...
my stance on this is IF they really want to move on from Graham, they have Robert Anae fully unemployed for the first time in 10+ years. He's turned them down before for the Hc job, but now Mendenhall's abrupt resignation left the UVA staff in the wind. UVA forums a week or so ago were talking about how his wife really wanted to get back to the islands, but he's still in the OC consideration for a number of jobs, namely Syracuse now.
Army is at 6.5 at most places. Your call, but I still think it's an okay play there.
Memphis top WR opting out of Hawaii game. Schager, the freshman Hawaii QB has thrown 107 passes. The extra time off will give him more time to get reps and coaching in practice. Also noticed that Bookmaker, which takes "whale" bets, is at -7.5 (-112) . Extra juice to get the 7.5 seems like they are getting some large bets on Hawaii.
Memphis top WR opting out of Hawaii game. Schager, the freshman Hawaii QB has thrown 107 passes. The extra time off will give him more time to get reps and coaching in practice. Also noticed that Bookmaker, which takes "whale" bets, is at -7.5 (-112) . Extra juice to get the 7.5 seems like they are getting some large bets on Hawaii.
2* WMU -6.5 This line opened at Nevada -6 before 20+ players left the team, along with most of the coaching staff. One of the few guys left, their interim coach, Vai Taua, was the RB coach. Apparently, he didn't have any offers elsewhere. I don't think the 12.5 point swing compensates enough for what Nevada will be putting out there Dec. 27 at 8:00 in the morning. Nevada might have a week and a half of practice missing their star QB, almost all of the WRs and the NFL prospect at TE. Two starting OL also left. An OL that was last in the Mt. West in YPC for their running game. Carson Strong had a great season at QB, but his WRs and TE were an exceptional bunch too. Strong benefitted from a corps that was great at "up for grabs" passes. Nevada also loses their top defensive tackler, and 2 others on that side of the ball. Nevada's red zone defense was poor, and they depended too much on turnovers.
WMU has been a bit of a disappointment this season, but as of now, only their #2 WR is transferring. I am going to gamble that everyone else will want to play since the game is basically a home game, and for the seniors/ NFL prospects, it gives them that one more chance to shine in front of their home crowd. WMU is middle of the pack defensively in the MAC, but I just don't see them having much trouble with a Nevada offense that is almost completely revamped, with ALL of the playmakers gone except a RB. WMU also led the MAC in 3rd and 1st down defensive efficiency. They have a NFL prospect QB, and playmakers, and a decent OL. For the Nevada players, the 3 hour time difference could be tough. They'll have to get up at 3 in the morning Reno time. Playing on a MAC team is always iffy, but usually 1-2 of them play well in bowl games.
WMU has been a bit of a disappointment this season, but as of now, only their #2 WR is transferring. I am going to gamble that everyone else will want to play since the game is basically a home game, and for the seniors/ NFL prospects, it gives them that one more chance to shine in front of their home crowd. WMU is middle of the pack defensively in the MAC, but I just don't see them having much trouble with a Nevada offense that is almost completely revamped, with ALL of the playmakers gone except a RB. WMU also led the MAC in 3rd and 1st down defensive efficiency. They have a NFL prospect QB, and playmakers, and a decent OL. For the Nevada players, the 3 hour time difference could be tough. They'll have to get up at 3 in the morning Reno time. Playing on a MAC team is always iffy, but usually 1-2 of them play well in bowl games.
1.5* ECU BC will be playing this bowl missing 3 of their starting OL, two that are going to be drafted for sure, and all 3 are on various All-ACC teams. They also lose their best cover corner opting out. Six players so far. Now Jurkovec is playing, although he didn't play all that well since returning from his injury. Zay Flowers is also returning for another year and will play. Yet if the OL is decimated, won't the offense suffer to run or pass block. I think so. ECU seems like they took a step up this year on both sides of the ball. BC has 5 wins against terrible competition, and one win at home vs. VT. BC's stats are somewhat deceptive. Yes, they beat up on UMass, Colgate, Temple, Missouri(at home), and Georgia Tech, but in their 6 losses, they looked like a really bad team at times.
