Baseball Talk... On going Record....Tips on capping the game

[RPReno]

FRI - PHI -280 TOR un8 -115
The line on PHI is high for a reason. I think it is about right. They don't add to the line at this level. The NYY line was always 30 over the correct line. Remember lines are set for the house to move bets and win as much as they think they can from the public.

Don't be afraid of the vig. I think this is the best matchup of the season so far. I set chances of loss at <7%. However if you are manok then play the RL which I think is also strong.
The TOR under fits my system which is 4/1 since ALL STAR.

dad

 

[RPReno]

BTW - I like PHI ML, RL, 1st inn & 1st 5.

dad

 

[TheSheriff]

wow......did they shit the bed or what?

 

[RPReno]

It happens. I am still way up on bets -200 or more since All Star.
Just not posted here.
On paper this was the best matchup of the season
But over the years the best looking lose more often than they win.
Therefore You can avoid high vig losses w/ selective capping

There will be some high vig gms that lose and the target is to avoid them.
But not let the high vig discourage.
Sun look at PHI. -285 RL -130
Halladay 15/4 - 8/1 H - 0.97 WHIP H
Wang pitched well last out and should be considered.
I won't lay the ML or the RL. Will parlay w/ CINC or SF especially if SF loses Sat.
Or maybe all 3.
Or maybe 2 parlays.
To be determined but after Wang's last outing I would definitely avoid the ML or the RL
This probably means PHI will win by 3 or more runs.

GL to you. There are many more winners out there.

 

[Bruins4Life]

"Just not posted here". Never like reading that line.

 

[EastCoastplayer]

It happens. I am still way up on bets -200 or more since All Star.
Just not posted here.
On paper this was the best matchup of the season
But over the years the best looking lose more often than they win.
Therefore You can avoid high vig losses w/ selective capping

There will be some high vig gms that lose and the target is to avoid them.
But not let the high vig discourage.
Sun look at PHI. -285 RL -130
Halladay 15/4 - 8/1 H - 0.97 WHIP H
Wang pitched well last out and should be considered.
I won't lay the ML or the RL. Will parlay w/ CINC or SF especially if SF loses Sat.
Or maybe all 3.
Or maybe 2 parlays.
To be determined but after Wang's last outing I would definitely avoid the ML or the RL
This probably means PHI will win by 3 or more runs.

GL to you. There are many more winners out there.

If I remember correctly you lost like 8 or 9 in a row with odds of -165 or higher not to long ago.

 

[EastCoastplayer]

I have one question RPReno. If you love betting -200, -300 etc., why not bet the first 5 innings? You are betting the pitcher at high odds, why bet those high odds when bullpens come into play 95% of the time?

 

[RPReno]

I have one question RPReno. If you love betting -200, -300 etc., why not bet the first 5 innings? You are betting the pitcher at high odds, why bet those high odds when bullpens come into play 95% of the time?

I do not love betting high lines. Only when they look like the plays. Even tho I post here I generally play 1st 5 to avoid pens. However some tms have questionable pens and then I play the gm as an escape route if necessary.

Don't recall any 8 or 9 in a row. Refresh my memory.

I spent 3 wonderful yrs in Syracuse while in law school watching those great football tms '58-'60. A great city and the surrounding areas. But you have to like snow.

dad

 

[RPReno]

MON - MW -155
dad

 

[blackchina]

Thanks RP, keep it up

 

[RPReno]

MON - DET -134

dad

 

[RPReno]

TUE - CINC -136
dad

 

[RPReno]

WED - PHI -181
dad

 

[TheSheriff]

Damn those Phillies.......Mon & Tuesday WINNERS!

WTD....2-1 +0.19

Thanks Dad, keep up the good stuff!
At least one out here who still enjoys your stuff! Which by the way I ALWAYS play ur picks as a RL -1.5 if over -120 ML. As so many more games are by 2+ runs!

So for me this week is: 2-1 +155
Tigers -1.5 +135........winner
Reds -1.5 +120..........winner
Phillies -1.5 +110........loss

Again, thanks & keep up the good stuff!

 

[RPReno]

7/3 since All Star
SAT - NYY -185 gm 1 w/ Nova/Matusz

dad

 

[RPReno]

I believe gm cancelled. Off the board.

dad

 

[RPReno]

SUN - NYY -203 gm2 Nova/Matusz
dad

 

[RPReno]

MON - LAD -165

dad

 

[RPReno]

WED - PHI -165
dad

 

[TheSheriff]

Nice one....I took ML & -1.5

Winner, Winner!