The All-Star Break brings us to the end of the "first half" of the Major League Baseball season. I wanted to spend some time at this juncture running through mistakes I saw bettors making in the first three months of the season.
Bullpens
Offenses
Whenever I hear a "bad beat" story, it's almost always about how a bullpen blew a late lead. Hey, that happens to everybody at some point. But, if you're betting on teams with bad bullpens, you DESERVE those bad beats!
- There was a long reluctance to accept that we were in another great pitching year. People wanted to bet Overs. When totals started dropping down to 7, 6.5, and even 6, they doubled down figuring offenses would start to hit. That worked sometimes. But, on the whole, bettors chasing offense have been disappointed. With steroids out of the game, you have to adjust your scoring expectations downward. This has been very tough for younger bettors who's entire gambling lives were during the steroid era. Old-timers can remember back to lower scoring eras, and were able to adjust quicker.
- Bettors were too quick to draw conclusions based on the first few weeks of results. Remember when Boston and Tampa Bay started out pretty slowly? When they got things going, too many gamblers had already decided those teams were overrated. Bettors missed out on some very good runs that made big money for teams who handicapped on overall team talent rather than what happened a week or two ago. This is something that happens in every sport. I think one of the strengths of oddsmakers is that they post their openers based on Power Ratings that reflect team talent rather than a short term sample that may be giving a bad read.
- Bettors focused too much on starting pitching and not enough on other elements. There are still WAY too many baseball bettors who think that starting pitching is everything when trying to pick a winner. These days, many starting pitchers only last six innings anyway. That's only two-thirds of the game. And, it's not like all offenses are created equal. At the bare minimum, you have to analyze a game based on:
Bullpens
Offenses
Whenever I hear a "bad beat" story, it's almost always about how a bullpen blew a late lead. Hey, that happens to everybody at some point. But, if you're betting on teams with bad bullpens, you DESERVE those bad beats!
SAT - BOST -280
Don't let the vig scare you. It is the highest this season and it is so high for a reason.
Beavan gave up 1 ER Home to weak SD in 7 inn, 2 ER Away to LAA again weak in 6.33 and 3 H to TX in 6.67
He is away in Bost where the Bosox are 29-17. I see him getting rocked and struggling to go 5. SEA is 20-30 Away and on a 13 gm slide.
I like BOST 1st 5 and even RL at -130
I also like NYY but I don't play a tm after a double digit win.
dad
Don't let the vig scare you. It is the highest this season and it is so high for a reason.
Beavan gave up 1 ER Home to weak SD in 7 inn, 2 ER Away to LAA again weak in 6.33 and 3 H to TX in 6.67
He is away in Bost where the Bosox are 29-17. I see him getting rocked and struggling to go 5. SEA is 20-30 Away and on a 13 gm slide.
I like BOST 1st 5 and even RL at -130
I also like NYY but I don't play a tm after a double digit win.
dad
