Baseball from Across the Pond

[drew15]

5TH MAY



SECTION 1 24-49 -16.55

Tampa Bay -137
Colorado +127

-----------------------------------
SECTION 2 25-26 +6.76

Washington +188
Colorado +127
Pittsburgh +156
LA Dodgers +157
Texas +147

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ULTIMATE UNDERDOGS 24-31 -2.19

05/05 Houston +137 (@ St Louis) Albers/Wells
05/05 Colorado +127 (@ Cincinnati) Cook/Harang
05/05 Baltimore +105 (vs. Cleveland) Cabrera/Sowers
05/05 Oakland +137 (@ Tampa Bay) Kennedy/Kazmir

 

[TheWolf]

0-6 again yesterday.

 

[drew15]

6th May


SECTION 1 26-49 -14.55

Arizona +106
Atlanta -118
Washington +139
Colorado +160
Detroit -101

-----------------------------------
SECTION 2 28-28 +9.07

Washington +139
Boston -162
Philadelphia -133
Pittsburgh +204
Oakland -131

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ULTIMATE UNDERDOGS 27-32 +0.50

05/06 LA Dodgers +110 (@ Atlanta) Wolf/Davies
05/06 Texas +114 (vs. Toronto) Loe/Burnett
05/06 CWS +122 (@ LA Angels) Buehrle/Colon

 

[Stabler12]

I agree it's good to share ideas, but in truth, I haven't really seen any one come forward and share ideas with me accept trentmoney who mentioned;

"since there are 14 al teams and 16 nl teams, instead of excluding top 20 in each league (not an even ratio), i exclude top 1.5 starters for each team (aces, then top half of #2's in theory), so i exclude top 21 in al and i exclude top 24 in nl."

That I will have to look into unless trentmoney has some figures.


SO IT REALLY IS ONE WAY TRAFFIC FROM WHERE I AM SITTING

I have to take issue w/ this Drew, I think for the purposes of this discussion, we are on the topic of YOUR system, and I don't believe many of us are in the position of modifying something you've taken years to develop. I personally am trying to contribute by asking questions, giving an opinion or two, and generally staying positive on the prospects of the system.

I stumbled onto a lengthy explanation of the system a couple of months ago, have recently found your posts and don't feel I have the right to come into your thread and suggest anything different from what has been successful long term. If you'd like to have some info on some NFL data I've researched over the years, I'd be happy to share, but this is neither the time or place.

Finally, I understand your frustration at working on this and having someone else take credit for it, but the people who've asked questions here are for the most part, respectful of what you've come with, and appreciative that you've answered their questions.

 

[drew15]

I agree Stabler12 with what you have said. Perhaps it was in-appropiate of me to post such comments here at the RX. It is frustrating, but this system has been floated about so many times now over the last two seasons, I just thought others may have picked up modifications from other threads and forums.

I am always on the look out to cut back on the number of plays. If that means losing some profit, then so be. By less selections, stakes can be increased, so profits less effected.

However, I am one for a higher ROI (return on investment) and I feel that ROI is a great measure of how good a system is.



7th May


SECTION 1 29-51 -13.65

-----------------------------------
SECTION 2 31-30 +9.20

Seattle +156
Washington +213
Baltimore +113
Cincinnati +130

----------------------------------
ULTIMATE UNDERDOGS 29-33 +1.86

05/07 San Diego +115 (@ Atlanta) Young/James
05/07 Colorado +118 (@ St Louis) Francis/Reyes
05/07 Baltimore +113 (vs. Cleveland) Trachsel/Carmone

 

[Stabler12]

I agree Stabler12 with what you have said. Perhaps it was in-appropiate of me to post such comments here at the RX. It is frustrating, but this system has been floated about so many times now over the last two seasons, I just thought others may have picked up modifications from other threads and forums.

I am always on the look out to cut back on the number of plays. If that means losing some profit, then so be. By less selections, stakes can be increased, so profits less effected.

However, I am one for a higher ROI (return on investment) and I feel that ROI is a great measure of how good a system is.



7th May

----------------------------------
ULTIMATE UNDERDOGS 29-33 +1.86

05/07 San Diego +115 (@ Atlanta) Young/James
05/07 Colorado +118 (@ St Louis) Francis/Reyes
05/07 Baltimore +113 (vs. Cleveland) Trachsel/Carmone

I agree Drew, less is usually more. BTW, I pulled the Baltimore game since Carmona had been farmed out and had not pitched 10 major-league innings in the last 10 days. The pitching rules can get a little hairy, but I think what helps the bottom line would be not playing on stale or injured pitchers.

What I was wondering is, you stated that BOTH pitchers need to meet the qualifications, wouldn't it be advantageous if the FAVORED pitcher was coming off injury or inactivity, and did NOT qualify innings-wise? I realize I'm now backtracking from the 'less is more' approach, but was hoping to get your thoughts on this.

Thanks for the measured response, I look forward to reading your thread daily (after working it out myself for comparison) as I believe this system is viable long-term, even at slightly reduced levels of return. GL!

 

[TheWolf]

Drew....Can you explain what all the different sections of plays are...I looked in previous posts of yours but couldnt seem to find any explanation there either. Thanks.

 

[drew15]

Both section 1 and 2 are various other systems that I am testing for this season. They are a group of systems based on how teams perform in first or last game of a series, starters having thrown 'x' amount of innings last start and a few others. I just grouped several together to cut down additional writings.


8th May


SECTION 1 29-51 -13.65

Toronto +165
Texas +202
CWS +100
Colorado +128
Seattle +186 x2
Oakland -107

-----------------------------------
SECTION 2 32-33 +7.76

Pittsburgh +150

----------------------------------
ULTIMATE UNDERDOGS 31-34 +3.19

Cincinnati +106 (vs. Houston) Milton/Rodriquez
Philadelphia +104 (@ Arizona) Eaton/Owings
CWS +100 (@ Minnesota) Vazquez/Bonser

 

[Stabler12]

Drew, not questioning, just trying to understand-Owings and Bonser have not pitched 10 innings in the last 10 days, do those 2 games still qualify?

 

[Stabler12]

Sorry, I just figured out that Owings had already made his first start off the DL, and on Bonser I guess I just had a senior moment. Either that or I couldn't find a + number on chicago when I looked earlier. Please when you have time could you address my concerns on post #46? Thanks, and GL.

 

[TheWolf]

Damn Chisox bullpen blows a great outing by Vazquez:/

 

[drew15]

Stabler12

ref post #46: You make a very valid point and in truth I haven't researched if it would be profitable to play against a pitcher returning from the DL or being brought into the rotation having pitched in relief. I just noticed that it was losing units when the above applied to the dog, so decided on making the amendment on pitchers to fit across the board.


9th May



SECTION 1 30-57 -18.65

Toronto +158
Washington +184
Philadelphia +100
Houston +122
Pittsburgh +130
Oakland -119 x2

-----------------------------------
SECTION 2 33-33 +9.26

LA Dodgers +111
Colorado +125
Pittsburgh +130

----------------------------------
ULTIMATE UNDERDOGS 31-37 +0.19

05/09 Colorado +125 (@ St Louis) Hirsh/Wainwright
05/09 LA Dodgers +111 (@ Florida) Tomko/Willis
05/09 San Diego +134 (@ Atlanta) Maddux/Smoltz
05/09 Tampa Bay +125 (@ Baltimore) Shields/Bedard
05/09 Cleveland +111 (@ LA Angels) Byrd/Weaver

 

[Stabler12]

Thanks Drew, and GL. I feel like if I can get an underdog going against a pitcher who has not benefited from regular work, for whatever reason, there may be additional value.

Also, would like to add that the Cub-Pirate under looks good tonight due to the top 20 pitchers facing off system in that game, and the extra bonus of them having played a 4:39 game last night. Only fresh players should be the 2 starters.

Thanks for posting the UU's!

 

[CalvinTy]

Thanks Drew, and GL. I feel like if I can get an underdog going against a pitcher who has not benefited from regular work, for whatever reason, there may be additional value.

Also, would like to add that the Cub-Pirate under looks good tonight due to the top 20 pitchers facing off system in that game, and the extra bonus of them having played a 4:39 game last night. Only fresh players should be the 2 starters.

Thanks for posting the UU's!

Great discussion, drew15 & Stabler12. By the way, I just had to respond to Cubs/Pirates comment about tonight's Under. I wholeheartedly agree with this. It's at U7.5 but still a good hit to go Under on.

* CalvinTy

 

[Stabler12]

Great discussion, drew15 & Stabler12. By the way, I just had to respond to Cubs/Pirates comment about tonight's Under. I wholeheartedly agree with this. It's at U7.5 but still a good hit to go Under on.

* CalvinTy

Thanks Calvin, GL to us on that under!:thumbsup:

 

[Stabler12]

Great discussion, drew15 & Stabler12. By the way, I just had to respond to Cubs/Pirates comment about tonight's Under. I wholeheartedly agree with this. It's at U7.5 but still a good hit to go Under on.

* CalvinTy

That's about as easy as an "under" bet can be! Glad you cashed!:thumbsup:

 

[CalvinTy]

That's about as easy as an "under" bet can be! Glad you cashed!:thumbsup:

Yes, certainly did! Glad you cashed as well, Stabler12!

* CalvinTy

 

[drew15]

10th May


SECTION 1 32-63 -20.43

Texas +260
Tampa Bay +145
Boston +137
Oakland -129
Seattle +215

-----------------------------------
SECTION 2 34-35 +8.37

Texas +260 x2
San Diego +171

----------------------------------
ULTIMATE UNDERDOGS 32-41 -2.70

05/10 Florida +120 (vs. LA Dodgers) Mitre/Lowe
05/10 Houston +137 (@ Cincinnati) Albers/Harang
05/10 San Francisco +110 (@ Colorado) Lowry/Cook
05/10 CWS +107 (@ Minnesota) Contreras/Silva

 

[drew15]

11th May



SECTION 1 35-65 -17.17

Oakland +116 x3

-----------------------------------
SECTION 2 36-36 +12.57

Texas +107

----------------------------------
ULTIMATE UNDERDOGS 34-43 -2.33

05/11 Chicago Cubs +107 (@ Philadelphia) Hill/Hamels
05/11 Houston +112 (vs. Arizona) Sampson/Webb
05/11 Cincinnati +115 (@ LA Dodgers) Arroyo/Wolf
05/11 Texas +107 (vs. LA Angels) Padillia/Lackey
05/11 Oakland +116 (vs. Cleveland) Blanton/Sabathia
05/11 Seattle +111 (vs. NY Yankees) Washburn/Rasner

 

[Stabler12]

I thought Rasner was a non-qualifier. But that gets to the point of the favored pitcher question again.