3rd May
SECTION 1 23-42 -10.57
Tampa Bay +102
Toronto +149
Seattle +200 x3
-----------------------------------
SECTION 2 23-23 +6.93
Minnesota -105
Toronto +149
----------------------------------
ULTIMATE UNDERDOGS 22-25 +1.61
05/03 Cincinatti +119 (@ Houston) Milton/Rodriquez
05/03 Kansas City +114 (vs. LA Angels) Meche/Weaver
NOTE: The average line for the underdogs was 5 cents lower in 2006 than it was in 2005. This year after one month the average line is 11 cents lower than in 2006. That's a huge 16 cents less on average per selection and as a result, the profits are being hugely effected.
At the same stage last year, the system was in the positive with 18.12 units generated and that was with only 7 winners more than losers.
It has been my concern for a few years now that the over exposure of this system appearing on many forums has had a knock on effect, and books have decided to shave underdog lines at an alarming rate.
I will continue to monitor this system in the hope that it is just a glitch, but looking at past numbers, I don't feel that is the case. In all probability, it is the case of over exposure and books becoming aware of such matters and making neccessary adjustments.
Going back over the last ten seasons, 78% of the total profits generated on average have been acquired upto the all-star break (mid July). The worst year still managed to produce 63% of the yearly profits in the first half of the season. The best year saw profits reach a season high before the second half took back 10.31 units of profit.
So the omens are not looking good this season.
SECTION 1 23-42 -10.57
Tampa Bay +102
Toronto +149
Seattle +200 x3
-----------------------------------
SECTION 2 23-23 +6.93
Minnesota -105
Toronto +149
----------------------------------
ULTIMATE UNDERDOGS 22-25 +1.61
05/03 Cincinatti +119 (@ Houston) Milton/Rodriquez
05/03 Kansas City +114 (vs. LA Angels) Meche/Weaver
NOTE: The average line for the underdogs was 5 cents lower in 2006 than it was in 2005. This year after one month the average line is 11 cents lower than in 2006. That's a huge 16 cents less on average per selection and as a result, the profits are being hugely effected.
At the same stage last year, the system was in the positive with 18.12 units generated and that was with only 7 winners more than losers.
It has been my concern for a few years now that the over exposure of this system appearing on many forums has had a knock on effect, and books have decided to shave underdog lines at an alarming rate.
I will continue to monitor this system in the hope that it is just a glitch, but looking at past numbers, I don't feel that is the case. In all probability, it is the case of over exposure and books becoming aware of such matters and making neccessary adjustments.
Going back over the last ten seasons, 78% of the total profits generated on average have been acquired upto the all-star break (mid July). The worst year still managed to produce 63% of the yearly profits in the first half of the season. The best year saw profits reach a season high before the second half took back 10.31 units of profit.
So the omens are not looking good this season.
Keep up with the faith, drew15. I, however, understand your concerns as books do show their ability to adapt. I'm certain that their computers now have a basic idea of what games the UU system would be flagged so they will anticipate a "higher number of wagers" on some dogs.
But with some books offering dime lines, I try to understand how dogs are still weak priced. Perhaps it's just that more teams are evenly-matched (especially early in season, but you say that it's not the same from the last 2 years).
It's not like there have been many strong favorites this past month, when you think about it. Many perennial favorites aren't doing well now. So the dogs are not as higher dogs anymore. Dunno.
I wanted to follow your system in mid-April but didn't get back on the saddle until beginning of this month. I'll be checking in this thread from now on. GL to us!
* CalvinTy
But with some books offering dime lines, I try to understand how dogs are still weak priced. Perhaps it's just that more teams are evenly-matched (especially early in season, but you say that it's not the same from the last 2 years).
It's not like there have been many strong favorites this past month, when you think about it. Many perennial favorites aren't doing well now. So the dogs are not as higher dogs anymore. Dunno.
I wanted to follow your system in mid-April but didn't get back on the saddle until beginning of this month. I'll be checking in this thread from now on. GL to us!
* CalvinTy
I was concerned about this myself. Just from experience, I've noticed some real values out there so far on strong arm faves....example Sheets the other day....at -130 or so. Good value to me. The overnights too are getting hit real early and the value of the system dogs is depreciating too it seems.
On a side note, Drew, I was thinking of fading the Under the Gun philosophy now that the've adjusted totals on that......is this wise or no?
Also, what are your Section 1 and Section 2 plays? Thanks in advance Drew.
how do you determine the plays? Is it the following or is there more criteria?
-eliminate all dogs greater than +150
-eliminate if dogs has lost 3 in a row or favorite has won 3 in a row
-eliminate if favorite team's pitcher is in top 20 of the saragin ratings
Is that it or there more to it? Thanks and good luck!
-eliminate all dogs greater than +150
-eliminate if dogs has lost 3 in a row or favorite has won 3 in a row
-eliminate if favorite team's pitcher is in top 20 of the saragin ratings
Is that it or there more to it? Thanks and good luck!
Alright Drew, creator of this system.....lets see some numbers on what this system has done over the last 6-10 years, because Im tired of getting my balls kicked in for the last week. You were quick to jump in here & take credit for it, now be quick to vindicate it when it has gone in the tank! Thanks, my brother from across the pond!
both starters have to have made three starts before they become eligibale. If making a spot start out of the bullpen, must have tossed 10+ innings in last 2 weeks.
Pitchers returning off the DL must make one start to be come eligiable.
NO Inter-league play.
Starters must make a start after all-star break unless able to pitch withing six days of last start.
System ends between game 145 and 150 of the regular season. I usually end when the series is completed inside that time frame. If a series is due to end for one or both of the teams from their 151st game onwards, then those teams will not qualify for any games during that series or beyond.
AS FOR FULL RESULTS OF THE LAST SIX TO TEN YEARS, WHY SHOULD I POST THESE. ASK STOFFO FOR THEM? or all the others who have been playing this system over the last few seasons. I have nothing to prove or to confirm.
I have posted the amendments several times. Take them on board or leave them .............. your choice.
Yes I agree the system is under-performing and I posted my concerns regarding this yesterday. However, every now and again a system or angle or trend will have a downside period. That period may be 1 week, it could be 2 months, even one or more seasons. But if you said to someone that you could make 200+ units in 5 years just betting underdogs in baseball, then that other person would want a piece of the action.
I NEVER said that the system was infallible. It has served me well over the years and I view it as a long term investment. I bet many sports for a living, it's my full time job, and have done so since 1998. So anything I do I do it for the "big picture". I mean Rome was never built in a day, nor was Vegas for that matter.
If people want instant success, then this system is not for them, and there never is any system that is guaranteed. Those that came in for the first time this year, then sorry, you are unfortunate. Those that played it over the last few seasons are still playing with the profit, unless they have spent it.
FINALLY; Arizona was not a play on Thursday due to Ownings returning off the 15-day DL.
Pitchers returning off the DL must make one start to be come eligiable.
NO Inter-league play.
Starters must make a start after all-star break unless able to pitch withing six days of last start.
System ends between game 145 and 150 of the regular season. I usually end when the series is completed inside that time frame. If a series is due to end for one or both of the teams from their 151st game onwards, then those teams will not qualify for any games during that series or beyond.
AS FOR FULL RESULTS OF THE LAST SIX TO TEN YEARS, WHY SHOULD I POST THESE. ASK STOFFO FOR THEM? or all the others who have been playing this system over the last few seasons. I have nothing to prove or to confirm.
I have posted the amendments several times. Take them on board or leave them .............. your choice.
Yes I agree the system is under-performing and I posted my concerns regarding this yesterday. However, every now and again a system or angle or trend will have a downside period. That period may be 1 week, it could be 2 months, even one or more seasons. But if you said to someone that you could make 200+ units in 5 years just betting underdogs in baseball, then that other person would want a piece of the action.
I NEVER said that the system was infallible. It has served me well over the years and I view it as a long term investment. I bet many sports for a living, it's my full time job, and have done so since 1998. So anything I do I do it for the "big picture". I mean Rome was never built in a day, nor was Vegas for that matter.
If people want instant success, then this system is not for them, and there never is any system that is guaranteed. Those that came in for the first time this year, then sorry, you are unfortunate. Those that played it over the last few seasons are still playing with the profit, unless they have spent it.
FINALLY; Arizona was not a play on Thursday due to Ownings returning off the 15-day DL.
4th May
SECTION 1 24-46 -13.55
Tampa Bay +119
LA Dodgers +150
Cleveland +116
-----------------------------------
SECTION 2 23-25 +4.93
LA Dodgers +150
Seattle +168
Colorado +115
----------------------------------
ULTIMATE UNDERDOGS 23-26 +1.75
05/04 San Diego +112 (@ Florida) Maddux/willis
05/04 LA Dodgers +150 (@ Atlanta) Tomko/Smoltz
05/04 Pittsburgh +149 (@ Milwaukee) Maholm/Vargas
05/04 Houston +122 (@ St Louis) Sampson/Wainwright
05/04 San Francisco +106 (vs. Philadelphia) Morris/Moyer
05/04 Cleveland +116 (@ Baltimore) Byrd/Bedard
SECTION 1 24-46 -13.55
Tampa Bay +119
LA Dodgers +150
Cleveland +116
-----------------------------------
SECTION 2 23-25 +4.93
LA Dodgers +150
Seattle +168
Colorado +115
----------------------------------
ULTIMATE UNDERDOGS 23-26 +1.75
05/04 San Diego +112 (@ Florida) Maddux/willis
05/04 LA Dodgers +150 (@ Atlanta) Tomko/Smoltz
05/04 Pittsburgh +149 (@ Milwaukee) Maholm/Vargas
05/04 Houston +122 (@ St Louis) Sampson/Wainwright
05/04 San Francisco +106 (vs. Philadelphia) Morris/Moyer
05/04 Cleveland +116 (@ Baltimore) Byrd/Bedard
Thanks very much Drew, for the clarifications. And I agree, you have nothing to prove, and you're not compelled to list past results.
I believe your modifications regarding pitchers will keep us off stale pitchers, pitchers coming off injuries, etc. In the Arizona example yesterday, I thought the favored team's pitcher would be the only one to concern ourselves with, so I played them.
Would I be correct to say that we can bet AGAINST a pitcher coming off the
DL, or one that is over-rested, and out of rotation?
Finally, I would disagree with the notion that a system that is slightly above break-even after just a couple of weeks is "tanking" and needs modification. Dogs have been pounded this year so far, and the system is holding its own. Should a normal fave-dog % prevail, I believe the ultimate underdog system will certainly have its day by year's end.
Thanks again, Drew.
I believe your modifications regarding pitchers will keep us off stale pitchers, pitchers coming off injuries, etc. In the Arizona example yesterday, I thought the favored team's pitcher would be the only one to concern ourselves with, so I played them.
Would I be correct to say that we can bet AGAINST a pitcher coming off the
DL, or one that is over-rested, and out of rotation?
Finally, I would disagree with the notion that a system that is slightly above break-even after just a couple of weeks is "tanking" and needs modification. Dogs have been pounded this year so far, and the system is holding its own. Should a normal fave-dog % prevail, I believe the ultimate underdog system will certainly have its day by year's end.
Thanks again, Drew.
drew-
i have been playing this system for 3 weeks and am up units...
as with all systems, you can't just play them blindly, but must actually believe in their principles and philosophies!!
DON'T JUST PLAY THIS SYSTEM BC SOMEONE SAID IT'S A WINNER!!
if you agree with the reasoning, then play it, but do not just play it blindly
what i like about this system is the fact that you don't have to pick a winning percentage to win $$$
i also love the fact that in every other sports betting spreads:
you lose going 1-1 (-10)
you lose more going 5-5 (-50)
and you lose even more going 10-10 (-100)
with this system:
you win going 1-1
you win even more going 5-5
and you win the most going 10-10!!!
one tweak that i've made:
since there are 14 al teams and 16 nl teams, instead of excluding top 20 in each league (not an even ratio), i exclude top 1.5 starters for each team (aces, then top half of #2's in theory)
so i exclude top 21 in al
and i exclude top 24 in nl
thus tonight i am not fading moyer #23 (san fran +106)
drew, once again, thanks for all your help!!!
oh yeah, one more thing:
if you believe in a system's theory, then you have to look at a large sample, not just 3 weeks
if you play 10 seasons and win 8, that is a winning system
the 2 years you lose it sucks for the moment, but over the long haul it is still a winner
you have to think like that if you want to make $$$ in this business
good luck
:toast:
trentmoney
I certainly do look at the big picture - long term. That's why I wager on sports for a living. I have no 9 till 5 job. I'm solely dedicated to betting.
I am concerned that the average price is lower per selection over the last few years than what it was the preceding 8 years on average, but perhaps that may have something also to do with better linemakers and bettors being more clued up and not wagering so often on the public teams.
Also, take a look at the likes of Baltimore and Kansas City this year. These teams, were regular teams to feature in seasons past and although the Royals still fit the criteria on a regular basis this season so far, their lines have been 17 cents lower. Maybe it's because they are a better team than last year, well certainly more stable pitching.
I am sure long term, this will all pull around and I from a personnal view point would settle for 20 units profit at season end.
Yeah, a huge drop off from seasons past, but a profit is a profit and atleast the off-shore's etc haven't taken my money.
I will answer any questions that I can, but like others I can make mistakes selecting wrong plays etc. All part of trying to work numerous sports in such a small window of time.
GOOD LUCK TO YOU ALL.
I certainly do look at the big picture - long term. That's why I wager on sports for a living. I have no 9 till 5 job. I'm solely dedicated to betting.
I am concerned that the average price is lower per selection over the last few years than what it was the preceding 8 years on average, but perhaps that may have something also to do with better linemakers and bettors being more clued up and not wagering so often on the public teams.
Also, take a look at the likes of Baltimore and Kansas City this year. These teams, were regular teams to feature in seasons past and although the Royals still fit the criteria on a regular basis this season so far, their lines have been 17 cents lower. Maybe it's because they are a better team than last year, well certainly more stable pitching.
I am sure long term, this will all pull around and I from a personnal view point would settle for 20 units profit at season end.
Yeah, a huge drop off from seasons past, but a profit is a profit and atleast the off-shore's etc haven't taken my money.
I will answer any questions that I can, but like others I can make mistakes selecting wrong plays etc. All part of trying to work numerous sports in such a small window of time.
GOOD LUCK TO YOU ALL.
drew,
my "big-picture" comments were aimed at the others who seem to be looking for results immediately... obviously, you see the panoramic view...!!
if you're curious as to how the tweaks affect my plays you can check my thread-right now i'm up 8.5 units
i actually had arizona last night since i hadn't read your tip regarding the disabled list, although owings pitched well and if the closer didn't blow the save i would be up almost 11 units... oh well, closers got to close!!!
would like to chat about nba in the future, worked a system well that hit 32-9 first 5 weeks and then .500 next 5 weeks so i stopped end of march... still won units
good luck
I agree it's good to share ideas, but in truth, I haven't really seen any one come forward and share ideas with me accept trentmoney who mentioned;
"since there are 14 al teams and 16 nl teams, instead of excluding top 20 in each league (not an even ratio), i exclude top 1.5 starters for each team (aces, then top half of #2's in theory), so i exclude top 21 in al and i exclude top 24 in nl."
That I will have to look into unless trentmoney has some figures.
SO IT REALLY IS ONE WAY TRAFFIC FROM WHERE I AM SITTING
"since there are 14 al teams and 16 nl teams, instead of excluding top 20 in each league (not an even ratio), i exclude top 1.5 starters for each team (aces, then top half of #2's in theory), so i exclude top 21 in al and i exclude top 24 in nl."
That I will have to look into unless trentmoney has some figures.
SO IT REALLY IS ONE WAY TRAFFIC FROM WHERE I AM SITTING
