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Afc & Nfc Conference Championship Games
- Thread starter TheComputerGroup
- Start date
I heard that Ray Lewis will be doing some pre-game commentary so that should be a good omen.
Lol, hope so......
I will probably pass on a side on NE. I am a PAtriots fan but I can't lay 9.5 vs that defense. So I would probably say Jax is where the value is. I will pass. Will angle the total.
I feel pretty confident in Minny. Then again, I just bet against them (pushed) and Atlanta (lost) so I need to look closer. I do think these defenses are getting too much respect on totals. Both gave up some points yesterday, especially Jax.
I also can't fathom that Keenum, Bortles and Foles are among the final 4. I wanted Brees to make it to add some narrative to the possibilities.
Amazing how we thought we would see Brady, Bree's, Ben & Ryan.......& now its Brady, Foles, Keenum & Bortles.
My cringe meter is with Foles first......even tho I bet Philly last week, I was still nervous cuz we had to rely on their defense, instead of Wentz & the offense. I think the last of the old men goes out this week, Mr Brady.
Amazing how we thought we would see Brady, Bree's, Ben & Ryan.......& now its Brady, Foles, Keenum & Bortles.
My cringe meter is with Foles first......even tho I bet Philly last week, I was still nervous cuz we had to rely on their defense, instead of Wentz & the offense. I think the last of the old men goes out this week, Mr Brady.
Really? Your hitching your wagon to one of these guys, Foles, Keenum or Bortles? Brady has more SB rings than all three of the others have playoff wins. Good luck with that logic!
Really? Your hitching your wagon to one of these guys, Foles, Keenum or Bortles? Brady has more SB rings than all three of the others have playoff wins. Good luck with that logic!
Yeah, what am I thinking.......the 10-6 Giants & Eli kicked the 3 SB ring wearing 16-0 undefeated Brady in the teeth as a +14 pt dog 17-14 SU.......
Hmm.....the 9-7 (2011) Giants repeated the kick in the teeth on the 13-3 Patriots winning again SU as a +3 pt dog 21-17.......
No matter how many rings Brady has, he's beatable at the right time, & IMO, I don't think Pats win it this year.......
Pats won their 1st SB by cheating, everyone knows it......& actually, it favored me, my local had Pats ML at 6-1, & +14.5, jumped on both & never looked back......but I'm not blinded by being a fan of any team........entirely too many people look at things threw Patriots goggles, thinking they will never lose.......goodness sakes, when Brady & Belichick leave, Pats fans will think its the end of the world......like a heroin addict high for years until the money runs out, then reality hits.
Do I ever bet on the Pats? Yes I do, & I bet against them as I did this season with Miami ML & +10 on MNF. There are many die hard Pats fans that have made a ton of money & they bet them every game, even the die hards on here had Pats -10 on MNF on this site with Pitt the following week, just didn't understand the logic.
Anyway, one team will cover & one won't......I think Jags cover & think they have a great chance to win SU.
Forgot to mention that Eli Manning is the most over rated Qb to ever win 2 SB's, & it was against the best Qb of all time, lol!
Since 1984 in terms conference championship games teams that have been favored by 9 like the Patriots so far are 3-0 SU and ATS.
Not a big stat......& is this an exact -9? This line won't go up past 9.5 IMO, I think it will come down to 8.5 by Sunday
Yeah, what am I thinking.......the 10-6 Giants & Eli kicked the 3 SB ring wearing 16-0 undefeated Brady in the teeth as a +14 pt dog 17-14 SU.......
Hmm.....the 9-7 (2011) Giants repeated the kick in the teeth on the 13-3 Patriots winning again SU as a +3 pt dog 21-17.......
No matter how many rings Brady has, he's beatable at the right time, & IMO, I don't think Pats win it this year.......
Pats won their 1st SB by cheating, everyone knows it......& actually, it favored me, my local had Pats ML at 6-1, & +14.5, jumped on both & never looked back......but I'm not blinded by being a fan of any team........entirely too many people look at things threw Patriots goggles, thinking they will never lose.......goodness sakes, when Brady & Belichick leave, Pats fans will think its the end of the world......like a heroin addict high for years until the money runs out, then reality hits.
Do I ever bet on the Pats? Yes I do, & I bet against them as I did this season with Miami ML & +10 on MNF. There are many die hard Pats fans that have made a ton of money & they bet them every game, even the die hards on here had Pats -10 on MNF on this site with Pitt the following week, just didn't understand the logic.
Anyway, one team will cover & one won't......I think Jags cover & think they have a great chance to win SU.
You are talking about ancient history with Eli and the Giants, the Giants D gave Eli a chance to close his eyes and chuck up a Hail Mary to Tyree. I get you're hatred of NE but they have really withstood the test of time. In this spot I just can't wrap my mind around Blake Bortles, going into NE on this stage and even covering the number. Everyone is touting the Jags defense here as unbelievable, is this the same one I watched give up 42 to an underachieving, misdirected Steelers offense? What do you think McDaniels and Brady will do to them? Good luck to all but I just think this will be another blowout when it's all said and done. It's NE or nothing for me, I couldn't bet the Jags with a gun to my head in "THIS" spot.
N.E. has been holding nearly every down for 17 years and its never called. At least now most reasonable minded people now see it and and call it for the joke the NFL is.Very good point with Coughlin. IMO some teams go to extreme measures to ensure NE is not stealing plays, signals, etc, and some just do it but do not go far enough. Also IMO after the debacle last week the refs can hardly railroad the Jags as badly as they did the Titans. Hey did anyone notice there were (almost?) no offensive line holding calls in the NE-Titan game while it still mattered? Most NFL game there are several, even numerous calls. IMO if they let that go, it favors NE with the immobile pocket passer. Subtle but it matters.
We shall see.
I go with NE a lot, but last week I had to take Titans + 14, better OL, better DL, mobile QB, top RB, and they got hosed.
I cannot decide other than make sure it is a small wager. Philly + 3 looks good at this point, though...
GL!
You will never convince a NE fan so don't bother. I do feel everything will come out within 5 years of Brady's retirement (kind of the whole Bond's and MLB etc.) and people will finally know the truth.
Until then bet NE, spread might be tough but the NFL will NOT allow NE to lose this game at any costs. If they have to bring in officials from the NFC game to make it 21 against 11 they will.
Its very expensive but I'm considering putting my wife and child on NE money-line. hell of a price but it is as guaranteed as NE holding every down and the ref keeps the yellow bandanna in his pocket.
Once again i enjoy all of your commentary. well done sebone
Bobbyjones2,
I totally agree with you and even said the same thing re: perhaps I am being shortsighted and pounced too early. But since I devour this stuff almost 24/7 all year let alone the playoffs I grabbed PHI -4 (-115) AT 2 A.M. AT BODOG.EU AND MY LOCAL BOOK HONOURED IT AS WELL.
I also have a futures bet that pays $5000 for PHI-NE to meet in SB so I am not backing down from that either. I laid it back in week # 8 long before Wentz went down.
I've enjoyed a bountiful season, bowl run and playoffs so far so what the hell...stay humble, stick to our capping guns and may the train keep 'a rolling. :toast:
Dome team heading outside off win of all wins on a short week.. I take my chances
N.E. has been holding nearly every down for 17 years and its never called. At least now most reasonable minded people now see it and and call it for the joke the NFL is.
You will never convince a NE fan so don't bother. I do feel everything will come out within 5 years of Brady's retirement (kind of the whole Bond's and MLB etc.) and people will finally know the truth.
Until then bet NE, spread might be tough but the NFL will NOT allow NE to lose this game at any costs. If they have to bring in officials from the NFC game to make it 21 against 11 they will.
Its very expensive but I'm considering putting my wife and child on NE money-line. hell of a price but it is as guaranteed as NE holding every down and the ref keeps the yellow bandanna in his pocket.
Once again i enjoy all of your commentary. well done sebone
I've been watching the NFL since before the "Merger" if you even know what that is. There is "Holding" on every single play in the NFL and since these players have gotten bigger. faster and stronger over the years there is no other way for these linemen to even remotely do their "JOB" or what is expected of them without "HOLDING" in some sort of way of the guy that is lined up across from them. To me. what is being called is the obvious take downs, throat holds, pan cake blocks etc. It's totally subjective to the crew calling the game but in reality you could throw a flag on any play, so what's the answer? I don't know and the NFL certainly doesn't know!!
Philly vs Vikings trends:
Minnesota is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
Minnesota is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 6 games
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia’s last 8 games
Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Philadelphia is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games at home
Philadelphia is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Minnesota
Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
Minnesota is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 6 games
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia’s last 8 games
Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Philadelphia is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games at home
Philadelphia is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Minnesota
Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota
Yeah, what am I thinking.......the 10-6 Giants & Eli kicked the 3 SB ring wearing 16-0 undefeated Brady in the teeth as a +14 pt dog 17-14 SU.......
Hmm.....the 9-7 (2011) Giants repeated the kick in the teeth on the 13-3 Patriots winning again SU as a +3 pt dog 21-17.......
No matter how many rings Brady has, he's beatable at the right time, & IMO, I don't think Pats win it this year.......
Pats won their 1st SB by cheating, everyone knows it......& actually, it favored me, my local had Pats ML at 6-1, & +14.5, jumped on both & never looked back......but I'm not blinded by being a fan of any team........entirely too many people look at things threw Patriots goggles, thinking they will never lose.......goodness sakes, when Brady & Belichick leave, Pats fans will think its the end of the world......like a heroin addict high for years until the money runs out, then reality hits.
Do I ever bet on the Pats? Yes I do, & I bet against them as I did this season with Miami ML & +10 on MNF. There are many die hard Pats fans that have made a ton of money & they bet them every game, even the die hards on here had Pats -10 on MNF on this site with Pitt the following week, just didn't understand the logic.
Anyway, one team will cover & one won't......I think Jags cover & think they have a great chance to win SU.
NE are definitely beatable this year, even if they beat Jax I would be extremely confident of Min beating them soundly (IF Min can get past Philly which is no certainty)...if NE got Philly in the SB I would like NE's chances to win handily....if Jax can start well and not be playing catch up they have a great shot
Here are a few more interesting stats regarding the NFC championship game :
1) The last eight AFC/NFC championship games have been won by the home team
2) Minnesota Vikings are 3-12 straight up all time in road playoff games
3) The Vikings three losses this year saw two of them on grass
4) Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS as a home playoff dog
5) The last time Philadelphia went to the Super Bowl was in 2004 and the team they met was the New England Patriots.
And the two teams that they had to get through on their way there?
ATLANTA FALCONS AND MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Well, one down and one to go!
1) The last eight AFC/NFC championship games have been won by the home team
2) Minnesota Vikings are 3-12 straight up all time in road playoff games
3) The Vikings three losses this year saw two of them on grass
4) Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS as a home playoff dog
5) The last time Philadelphia went to the Super Bowl was in 2004 and the team they met was the New England Patriots.
And the two teams that they had to get through on their way there?
ATLANTA FALCONS AND MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Well, one down and one to go!
Here we are, down to 3 games left on the season, oh how fast it always goes by when watching & betting football, adding all the holidays in between, etc.....
Patriots did to the Titans what they usually do to teams up in Foxboro, win games (with the help of a few terrible calls against their opponents by the refs), & this is the Pats 4th str championship game, which means you still gotta be great no matter how much the refs wanna help.
Was watching Fox news & they were talking about the Vikings ending, & the weather lady stated she was rooting for Philly, & as long as the Pats don't win, cuz Brady doesn't need another ring, let someone else win she said, lol.....I think everyone in america agrees with her sentiments except for people in Boston & a few outside.
The Titans did beat the Jags twice this season, but the last game in week 17 had the Jags going thru the motions, they were focused on the SB. Amazing how Bortles goes from looking like crap vs Bills to looking like Montana vs the Steelers.
Jags defense gave up 42 points on the road, but IMO, the defense wasn't fully cranked in this game, & the offense took over & Pitt didn't get their revenge, again getting embarrassed at home in the playoffs.
We all know what the Patriots are capable of, & if the flag happy refs keep it to a fair called game, the Jaguars will go into Foxboro & win SU........sure the Pats have Belichick & Brady, the best coach & Qb combo of all time, close by is Walsh & Montana.
I think the game plan Belichick will have is to get the ball out fast & dink pass, Brady wont have all the time to throw like he has past several games, & I do know the Jags will blitz Brady & try to get him off his game.
I think Jags defense will get to Brady & sack him several times, that's the only way to beat the Pats.......let's not forget Tom Coughlin is the executive vice president of football operations for the Jags, & he defeated Belichick & Brady twice in the super bowl with the Giants & Eli Manning.......if he can do that with Manning, he can do it with Bortles.....but this Jags defense is so much better than those teams the Giants had.
Coughlin knows how to beat Belichick in the big game, & I'm sure he's giving the coaches plenty of info.......nobody thought the Jags would get this far, including me, but they've gotten here on their defense & their RB Fournette (check injury report).
I will be taking (Jaguars plus points & ML, waiting for a better ML, both locals have Jags +9.5)
Will be back with my NFC write-ups
Correction 7th straight championship game and it's Goodell & Kraft, the best commissioner & owner combo of all time.
Correction 7th straight championship game and it's Goodell & Kraft, the best commissioner & owner combo of all time.
Lol, very true.......my friend sent a team picture of the Patriots, it was all referees, lmao!
A team scoring 40 or more points in the previous playoff game are 9-28 ATS next game since 1990......there you go Pats fans.
