2017 NCAA Systems

[Gold_finger]

roltide - do you use this system for all of your bets? Also, where do you get all the data? Thanks!!!

 

[rolltide]

roltide - do you use this system for all of your bets? Also, where do you get all the data? Thanks!!!

i get the data from killersports...i create the parameters based on the sdql language (based on python)

no, i don't bet strictly on systems at all...just one tool I use and I share those systems weekly findings at therxforum.

 

[rolltide]

week 2 nfl example of a SDQL query...

week 2 PLAY ON home dogs that lost week 1 and playing an opponent that did not win their game by double digits. 18-1 (on IND, on NO)

HD and week = 2 and p:L and season > 2009 and op:margin < 11
SU: 13-6-0 (3.53, 68.4%) Teaser Records ATS: 18-1-0 (7.53, 94.7%) avg line: 4.0 +6: 19-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 10-9-0 (52.6%) +10: 19-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 6-13-0 (31.6%) O/U: 12-7-0 (1.71, 63.2%) avg total: 43.6 +6: 7-12-0 (36.8%) -6: 14-5-0 (73.7%) +10: 3-16-0 (15.8%) -10: 16-3-0 (84.2%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 30.0 134.7 33.8 239.1 20.8 1.3 6.5 6.4 4.5 7.1 24.4 Opp 23.5 97.1 38.7 257.3 24.0 1.3 3.9 6.4 4.8 5.7 20.9
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 17, 2017 view Sunday 2 2017 Colts Cardinals home 7.5 44.5 Sep 17, 2017 view Sunday 2 2017 Saints Patriots home 6.5 54.5 Sep 18, 2016 view Sunday 2 2016 Browns Ravens home 20-2 0-10 0-7 0-6 20-25 5.5 43.0 -5 0.5 2.0 1.2 0.8 L W O 0 Sep 18, 2016 view Sunday 2 2016 Rams Seahawks home 3-0 3-3 0-0 3-0 9-3 5.5 38.0 6 11.5 -26.0 -7.2 -18.8 W W U 0 Sep 20, 2015 view Sunday 2 2015 Jaguars Dolphins home 10-3 10-10 0-7 3-0 23-20 5.0 42.5 3 8 0.5 4.2 -3.8 W W O 0 Sep 20, 2015 view Sunday 2 2015 Raiders Ravens home 10-10 10-10 10-0 7-13 37-33 6.5 42.5 4 10.5 27.5 19.0 8.5 W W O 0 Sep 20, 2015 view Sunday 2 2015 Redskins Rams home 10-0 7-0 0-10 7-0 24-10 3.0 41.5 14 17.0 -7.5 4.8 -12.2 W W U 0 Sep 14, 2014 view Sunday 2 2014 Browns Saints home 10-0 6-10 7-7 3-7 26-24 5.0 49.5 2 7.0 0.5 3.8 -3.2 W W O 0 Sep 15, 2013 Sunday 2 2013 Bills Panthers home 0-0 3-7 11-7 10-9 24-23 3.0 44.0 1 4.0 3.0 3.5 -0.5 W W O 0 Sep 15, 2013 Sunday 2 2013 Cardinals Lions home 0-0 10-14 6-7 9-0 25-21 1.5 47.0 4 5.5 -1 2.2 -3.2 W W U 0 Sep 15, 2013 Sunday 2 2013 Buccaneers Saints home 7-10 0-0 0-3 7-3 14-16 3.0 48.0 -2 1.0 -18.0 -8.5 -9.5 L W U 0 Sep 16, 2012 Sunday 2 2012 Colts Vikings home 7-3 10-3 3-0 3-14 23-20 2.0 44.5 3 5.0 -1.5 1.8 -3.2 W W U 0 Sep 16, 2012 Sunday 2 2012 Panthers Saints home 7-10 14-3 7-0 7-14 35-27 2.5 52.5 8 10.5 9.5 10.0 -0.5 W W O 0 Sep 16, 2012 Sunday 2 2012 Dolphins Raiders home 7-7 0-3 14-0 14-3 35-13 1.0 41.0 22 23.0 7 15.0 -8.0 W W O 0 Sep 16, 2012 Sunday 2 2012 Rams Redskins home 3-14 13-7 7-7 8-0 31-28 3.5 43.5 3 6.5 15.5 11.0 4.5 W W O 0 Sep 16, 2012 Sunday 2 2012 Seahawks Cowboys home 10-0 3-7 7-0 7-0 27-7 3.0 42.5 20 23.0 -8.5 7.2 -15.8 W W U 0 Sep 18, 2011 Sunday 2 2011 Colts Browns home 3-0 6-14 3-0 7-13 19-27 2.5 39.0 -8 -5.5 7.0 0.8 6.2 L L O 0 Sep 18, 2011 Sunday 2 2011 Panthers Packers home 10-0 3-7 0-16 10-7 23-30 10.0 45.0 -7 3.0 8.0 5.5 2.5 L W O 0 Sep 20, 2010 Monday 2 2010 Fortyniners Saints home 0-9 7-0 7-7 8-9 22-25 5.0 43.5 -3 2.0 3.5 2.8 0.8 L W O 0 Sep 19, 2010 Sunday 2 2010 Bengals Ravens home 0-0 6-0 3-7 6-3 15-10 2.0 39.5 5 7.0 -14.5 -3.8 -10.8 W W U 0 Sep 19, 2010 Sunday 2 2010 Lions Eagles home 7-7 10-14 0-7 15-7 32-35 6.5 41.5 -3 3.5 25.5 14.5 11.0 L W O 0 Showing 1 to 21 of 21 entries

 

[Gold_finger]

very cool. so i have to learn Python to be able to run those queries?

 

[rolltide]

very cool. so i have to learn Python to be able to run those queries?

no, you need to know the language to write queries. the basics, such as that nfl one i just posted, are very easy to learn and some leagues, like NFL, have nice shortcuts available for certain parameters which do not exist for college football.

 

[indiana]

R/tide.........how are you doing with your soccer action..........hope all is well, BOL this weekend.........indy

 

[sunshine11]

Hi Roll. I was wondering how a team does in the NFL after getting shut out the week before (Cincy) 0 ? And does the next game stay under or go over? Thanx.

 

[rolltide]

Hi Roll. I was wondering how a team does in the NFL after getting shut out the week before (Cincy) 0 ? And does the next game stay under or go over? Thanx.

points = 0
SU: 85-114-1 (-2.35, 42.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 105-91-4 (0.66, 53.6%) avg line: 3.0 +6: 144-53-3 (73.1%) -6: 65-133-2 (32.8%) +10: 169-29-2 (85.4%) -10: 40-158-2 (20.2%) O/U: 96-98-6 (0.46, 49.5%) avg total: 38.7 +6: 63-133-4 (32.1%) -6: 131-66-3 (66.5%) +10: 45-151-4 (23.0%) -10: 153-45-2 (77.3%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 28.0 111.7 31.6 192.1 18.3 1.9 4.2 5.2 3.9 5.0 18.4 Opp 29.0 120.5 32.0 205.9 19.0 1.8 4.2 6.9 3.9 5.7 20.8
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 14, 2017 view Thursday 2 2017 Bengals Texans home -6.0 37.5

 

[sunshine11]

So not much advantage I think. Thanx

 

[ScottL]

My records have teams off a Shutout Home Loss at 25-4 ATS if now in Week 10 or later of the NFL schedule. No Plays in at least 2 Seasons though.

 

[sunshine11]

I read just a little bit ago. If its a home shut out loss and they are at home it's 70% ATS

 

[rolltide]

I read just a little bit ago. If its a home shut out loss and they are at home it's 70% ATS

H and p:HL and points = 0 SU: 12-11-0 (-1.30, 52.2%) Teaser Records ATS: 14-8-1 (2.07, 63.6%) avg line: 3.4 +6: 18-5-0 (78.3%) -6: 9-13-1 (40.9%) +10: 21-2-0 (91.3%) -10: 5-17-1 (22.7%) O/U: 11-11-1 (3.72, 50.0%) avg total: 37.7 +6: 9-14-0 (39.1%) -6: 15-8-0 (65.2%) +10: 8-14-1 (36.4%) -10: 17-5-1 (77.3%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 26.0 98.2 32.6 200.3 18.7 2.2 3.2 6.3 4.1 6.3 20.0 Opp 28.9 124.5 35.0 220.3 21.4 1.8 4.6 6.2 4.3 6.0 21.3 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 14, 2017 view Thursday 2 2017 Bengals Texans home -6.0 37.5

 

[rolltide]

My records have teams off a Shutout Home Loss at 25-4 ATS if now in Week 10 or later of the NFL schedule. No Plays in at least 2 Seasons though.

week > 9 and p:HL and points = 0 and date > 19921201
SU: 17-13-0 (0.87, 56.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 25-5-0 (6.42, 83.3%) avg line: 5.5 +6: 29-1-0 (96.7%) -6: 16-14-0 (53.3%) +10: 29-1-0 (96.7%) -10: 10-19-1 (34.5%) O/U: 10-19-1 (-1.75, 34.5%) avg total: 38.2 +6: 9-21-0 (30.0%) -6: 17-13-0 (56.7%) +10: 8-21-1 (27.6%) -10: 20-10-0 (66.7%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 29.6 112.9 29.5 187.2 17.0 1.7 4.7 5.0 2.9 5.8 18.7 Opp 28.6 117.5 34.8 197.2 19.3 2.3 3.9 5.8 3.4 4.6 17.8

 

[sunshine11]

14-8 not to bad.

 

[ScottL]

Thanks for the query results RT. Surprisingly it reveals these teams off the late season shutout loss, although they do cover at a good rate, are NOT doing so because of proper adjustments on OFFENSE. Good spot for UNDER as well

 

[tnvolfan]

RT....thanks for posting all these different queries....last week had winners everywhere in cfb...didn't do a final tally
but seemed like it was a high % of winners when I looked at it............

 

[sunshine11]

Thanks for posting.

 

[rolltide]

a couple more NFL from a new newsletter i subscribed to....


1) week 2 teams with point spread +/- 3.5 of even vs opponent that just scored 30+ are 35-8 SU, 30-10-3 ATS (on Wash, on NYG). makes sense...vegas has no belief in that team despite 30+ points scored and probably overachieved last week


2) teams blown out in week 1 divisional games are 11-1-1 ATS the following week (great angle but hou and cincy canceled each other out)


3) home teams week 2 that lost away week 1 are 36-19-1 ATS L7 years (on NO, LAC, IND, SEA, NYG)


4) game 2 dogs in 2nd of b2b divisional game are 17-5 ATS (on JAX, on CLE)


5) oppose teams that played on the showcased opening thur game, 16-7-1 (on NO, on PHI) - interesting considering the extra prep time but keep in mind NO played monday while NE played previous Thur. those MON vs THU are usually very bad spread covers for the MON team (6 straight noncovers....see below...active 3 more times this year. Still prefer NO due to the public inflating this line which should be -3.5 or -4 max)

p:day = Thursday and op:day = Monday and date > 20151123 SU: 4-2-0 (11.67, 66.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 6-0-0 (9.67, 100.0%) avg line: -2.0 +6: 6-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 3-2-1 (60.0%) +10: 6-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 2-4-0 (33.3%) O/U: 4-2-0 (6.58, 66.7%) avg total: 44.8 +6: 2-4-0 (33.3%) -6: 5-1-0 (83.3%) +10: 2-4-0 (33.3%) -10: 6-0-0 (100.0%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 32.7 139.8 35.8 251.0 21.8 1.3 4.5 7.3 9.7 10.0 31.5 Opp 24.8 115.3 32.3 204.3 17.8 2.8 3.3 6.8 2.8 6.8 19.8 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Dec 03, 2017 view Sunday 13 2017 Lions Ravens away 3.0 Oct 01, 2017 view Sunday 4 2017 Fortyniners Cardinals away 9.0 Oct 01, 2017 view Sunday 4 2017 Rams Cowboys away 12.5 Sep 17, 2017 view Sunday 2 2017 Patriots Saints away -6.5 56.0

 

[rolltide]

UNDER conference game with team away from home that went under by 30+ in previous game. 32-80-4 o/u with great year to year consistency....CLEMSON under

 

[rolltide]

week 3 OVER winless dog scoring <=20 ppg and with turnover margin of 3 or less YTD. 30-6 o/u (CHI o, NYG o, NYJ o, NO o)


week 3 tease or ML with big home favs vs winless opponent. 38-3 SU, 31-9-1 teaser (PHI, GB, CAR)


week 3 OVER winless dog scoring <=20 ppg and with turnover margin of 3 or less YTD. 30-6 o/u (NO o, NYJ o, NYG o, CHI o)


week 3 OVER 0-2 dog that was bad last year vs opponent that lost last week and had equal or better record LY. 34-14 o/u (SF o, CIN o)


week 3 UNDER 2-0 away teams that won 5+ game and off a home win. 16-40 o/u (OAK u, PIT u, DEN u, KC u, ATL u)


week 3 PLAY ON a 2-0 or 1-1 team off win not covering 2 games by 10+ vs a 0-2 or 1-1 team off loss, neither 13+ wins LY. 41-15 ATS (on ARIZ)


PLAY ON away dog of 7+ after away dog win. 43-15 ATS (on HOU)


OVER early season home team off b2b away games. 39-13 o/u (NYJ o, PHI o, ARI o)


PLAY ON and OVER team after allowing an opponent WR to catch 12+ passes. 55-24 o/u, 50-32 ATS (SD and over)


PLAY ON away team within 3 of pk'em off away loss. 71-28 ATS (on DAL)


PLAY ON team that went under by 28+ not in a shutout. 49-19 ATS (on BUF, on CAR)


OPPOSE winning favs off home dog win. 11-37 ATS (on BUF)


PLAY ON home team off horrible offensive first half vs opponent that just scored 32+. 85-46 ATS (on BUF)


OVER team off poor west coast game vs eastern team. 34-14 o/u (MIA o)


_________________________________________________________________


PLAY ON small dogs with decent defense that won 9 or less games LY. 246-129 ATS (on MICH ST)


PLAY ON single digit dogs off bad rush defense game vs excellent rush defense. 110-63 ATS (on ARK, on UCF)


OPPOSE team after allowing 37+ and playing team off b2b blowout wins. 63-131 ATS (on WVU)


OPPOSE favs off OT game where they were >TD fav. 32-55 ATS (on CAL)... also meets 21-48 tightener


PLAY ON away teams with good offense with 4 of pk'em. 210-95 ATS (on UCF, on DUKE, on ARMY, on UTAH) ... 173-69 tightener knocks out UCF only


UNDER winning home dog on winning streak, both teams won 8+ LY. 29-65 o/u (IOWA u, COLO u)


UNDER high total home team off b2b great defense vs opponent that allowed 27+. 55-91 o/u (EMU u, HOU u)


OPPOSE bad rushing conference team vs good rush defense. 43-89 ATS (on USF)


OPPOSE big dog off fav loss vs unbeaten opponent off TD+ win. 12-35 ATS (on WASH ST)


PLAY ON home fav off blowout win vs opponent that just allowed a lot of points. 154-66 ATS (on VT, SoBama, OKST, HOU)


OPPOSE away dog off conference dog win vs opponent off 10+ point win. 20-53 ATS (on UGA) ... fits 33-86 ATS too


PLAY ON winning conference big home dogs off b2b wins vs opponent that did not cover by 5+ last week. 71-26 ATS (on CAL, on IOWA, on VANDY)


PLAY ON away non-conference dog with revenge from big loss in last 2 seasons. 45-21 ATS (on UVA)


UNDER away conference team that went under by 30+. 33-80 o/u (FIU under)


PLAY ON away conference teams off b2b great rush defense and opponent bad rush defense. 69-29 ATS (on UTAH ST)


PLAY ON home conference dog off b2b home loss. 28-9 ATS (on Missouri)


PLAY ON big home conf fav off blowout win as a conf fav. 65-24 ATS (on CLEM)