messing around with late season stuff. two bad offenses with total <40... 12 straight unders and 4-25 o/u in 20+ years. could have something active for HT and/or next week
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Since Jan 2011 large divisional home favs are 31-1 SU, 23-9 ATS in final weeks of season and 29-3 in 6-pt teaser. (Pats/Steelers/Vikes ML/teaser)
PLAY ON home favs that are 6-1/7-0 at home this season. 56-26 (on MIN)
OPPOSE dogs that have 4+ more wins than opponent. 61-23 (on DEN, on DAL, on SF)
UNDER 7+ away favs. 19-60 o/u (NO/TB under if -7 or higher)
OVER Dog off dog loss by 10+ vs opponent off Monday game. 42-22 o/u (CLE/PIT over)
OVER low total with team on 4+ game under streak and just scored <13. 114-71 o/u (OAK/LAC over)
OVER tighten above with no bye, opponent scored <34, and not in Eastern time zone. 43-8 o/u (OAK/LAC over)
PLAY ON big home favs off home dog win and playing poor opponent. 63-27 (on BAL)
PLAY ON away dog off away loss and WP b/w 25-40%. 87-40 (on OAK)
UNDER NFC home team with 63%+ first downs through air and off away fav game. 11-49 o/u (LAR/SF under)
PLAY ON away team no more than dog of +3 off away nondiv loss. 23-9 (Jax if +3 or less)
PLAY ON team that lost by 45+ ATS in last 5 weeks. 120-72 (on HOU)
OVER good margin team that just allowed <6 first half points. 140-71 o/u (LAC/OAK over, TB/NO over)
PLAY ON away team with b2b no turnovers vs team that just had 1+ turnovers. 67-33 (on BUF, on KC)
PLAY ON away team within 3 of pkem off away loss. 78-32 (on BUF, on JAX if -3 to +3)
OPPOSE streaking away team that just allowed 300+ passing yards and 250+ in game before that. 35-15 (on ATL)
UNDER off blowout away win that went under vs opponent that doesnt score a lot. 18-53 o/u (PIT/CLE under, MIN/CHI under)
UNDER big dog on grass that scored less than expected in b2b games. 0-20 o/u (PIT/CLE under, LAC/OAK under) ... 20 straight unders but been historically 50/50 bet
PLAY ON final game teams not on a big losing streak, are 1-3 games worse than their opponent who has 5-11 wins. 107-40 (on OAK, on MIA, on ATL, on GB, on CIN, on ARI, on TEN) ... only 1 losing year since 1990 with 2-3-1 in 2011.
PLAY ON home favs that are 6-1/7-0 at home this season. 56-26 (on MIN)
OPPOSE dogs that have 4+ more wins than opponent. 61-23 (on DEN, on DAL, on SF)
UNDER 7+ away favs. 19-60 o/u (NO/TB under if -7 or higher)
OVER Dog off dog loss by 10+ vs opponent off Monday game. 42-22 o/u (CLE/PIT over)
OVER low total with team on 4+ game under streak and just scored <13. 114-71 o/u (OAK/LAC over)
OVER tighten above with no bye, opponent scored <34, and not in Eastern time zone. 43-8 o/u (OAK/LAC over)
PLAY ON big home favs off home dog win and playing poor opponent. 63-27 (on BAL)
PLAY ON away dog off away loss and WP b/w 25-40%. 87-40 (on OAK)
UNDER NFC home team with 63%+ first downs through air and off away fav game. 11-49 o/u (LAR/SF under)
PLAY ON away team no more than dog of +3 off away nondiv loss. 23-9 (Jax if +3 or less)
PLAY ON team that lost by 45+ ATS in last 5 weeks. 120-72 (on HOU)
OVER good margin team that just allowed <6 first half points. 140-71 o/u (LAC/OAK over, TB/NO over)
PLAY ON away team with b2b no turnovers vs team that just had 1+ turnovers. 67-33 (on BUF, on KC)
PLAY ON away team within 3 of pkem off away loss. 78-32 (on BUF, on JAX if -3 to +3)
OPPOSE streaking away team that just allowed 300+ passing yards and 250+ in game before that. 35-15 (on ATL)
UNDER off blowout away win that went under vs opponent that doesnt score a lot. 18-53 o/u (PIT/CLE under, MIN/CHI under)
UNDER big dog on grass that scored less than expected in b2b games. 0-20 o/u (PIT/CLE under, LAC/OAK under) ... 20 straight unders but been historically 50/50 bet
PLAY ON final game teams not on a big losing streak, are 1-3 games worse than their opponent who has 5-11 wins. 107-40 (on OAK, on MIA, on ATL, on GB, on CIN, on ARI, on TEN) ... only 1 losing year since 1990 with 2-3-1 in 2011.
got a bunch on the rams due to their YPPA stats
most in-play leaguewide is to bet against playoff teams before the super bowl if they won 6 or less games the previous season
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and tightens up if opponent won the same, or more, games last year.
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then really tightens up if they're not underdog by >7
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tide any thoughts on this ?
| team = GEO and o:team = ALA |
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PLAY ON playoff team after h2h non div loss vs same opponent week 4+. 41-22-2 ATS (on PIT)
tightener of above...NOT the combo of playing playoff away after losing regular season at home. 34-13-1 ATS (on PIT)
OPPOSE playoff team before super bowl that won <6 games LY. 40-13-2 (on PIT)
tightener...and had equal or less wins last year. 40-8-2 (on PIT)
...and not a dog of 7.5+. 33-4-2 (on PIT)
PLAY ON any playoff team -6.5 or less b4 super bowl that has better YPPA and won 7+ games LY. 70-24 (on Vikings, on Falcons)
tightener of above...NOT the combo of playing playoff away after losing regular season at home. 34-13-1 ATS (on PIT)
OPPOSE playoff team before super bowl that won <6 games LY. 40-13-2 (on PIT)
tightener...and had equal or less wins last year. 40-8-2 (on PIT)
...and not a dog of 7.5+. 33-4-2 (on PIT)
PLAY ON any playoff team -6.5 or less b4 super bowl that has better YPPA and won 7+ games LY. 70-24 (on Vikings, on Falcons)
Here's the one we've been killing all year. no fits in last month but active today if stays -7 or higher
UNDER big 7+ favs not off a great offensive game. 0-34 o/u (PIT/JAX) - this is a subset of 43-103-2 o/u
note: still very good even if line drops. 9-54 o/u favored by 4.5 or more
UNDER big 7+ favs not off a great offensive game. 0-34 o/u (PIT/JAX) - this is a subset of 43-103-2 o/u
note: still very good even if line drops. 9-54 o/u favored by 4.5 or more
against Philly if stays 3 or higher home dog
OPPOSE dogs of 3 or more in 2nd half of season (or playoffs) that won at least 80% of games YTD and score 20+ ppg. 27-67-4 ATS, 18-80 SU
....home dogs here are 2-10 ATS, 2-10 SU
....if opponent coming off a win <6 points or a loss = 9-40-1 ATS, 5-45 SU
OPPOSE dogs of 3 or more in 2nd half of season (or playoffs) that won at least 80% of games YTD and score 20+ ppg. 27-67-4 ATS, 18-80 SU
....home dogs here are 2-10 ATS, 2-10 SU
....if opponent coming off a win <6 points or a loss = 9-40-1 ATS, 5-45 SU
