Thoughts/plays;
Main Categories
Film - Pretty confident King's Speech has this in the bag, but not enough to bet odds over -300. No bet.
Director - Think its Finch but odds near -200 aren't worth anything but a small bet.
Actor - Firth 95%+
Actress - Portman has literally every precursor award but I still firmly believe Bening could actually win. Odds are getting better for Bening, should be able to find at least 8-1.
Sup. Act - Its a small bet on Rush or nothing, odds slightly gone too far but Bale appears to be the winner.
Sup. Actress - Wild category, Leo started strong fav but faded with own shenanigans and general strength of other candidates. imo best bet is Amy Adams at odds between 25-40 to one. She has a legitimate shot of winning, Bonham-Carter at 8-1 or so maybe worth a small bet as well. fwiw Kirk Douglas supposed to be presenting this one, maybe old to young (Steinfeld) or perhaps its absolutely no factor (likeliest).
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Some notable bets elsewhere...
Foreign Film - Only three names being mentioned seriously, with Biutiful and In a Better World probably ahead of Incendies. Odds wise IABW at +225 or better the best way to go.
Score - Mentioned King's Speech previously, still worth a bet near +200 now.
Song - Toy Story track the likeliest but the 127 Hours song is probably the next favorite. +350 or better on If I Rise is worth a bet.
Cinematography - True Grit looking good but odds getting a little unappealing. Small bet on -200 if you can get that.
Costume - Mentioned previously I think Alice is ahead of King's Speech. Slightly above even odds still available.
Maybe one or two more decent plays later.
