I think we are going to see more unexpected upsets in this year's Oscars than we've seen in many years. I don't see a virtual lock in any category, including Best Picture and actor. I personally liked The King's Speech, and thought it was the best movie that I've seen this year. But the voting academy is much younger than it used to be. And I think they are just as apt to go for a movie like The Social Network than they are a British period piece. Something we wouldn't have seen 5 or 10 years ago. I also think that Jesse Eisenberg is one of the better longshots for the best actor category. He absolutely nailed his part. He made me like him and hate him all at the same time. Which isn't easy to do. His performance in my opinion was right up there with Firth's performance. I also think Fincher is going to get best Director for the Social Network. The academy loves to award up and coming directors who make exciting pictures because a win gives them the money and clout to keep making those kinds of movies. Which benefits Hollywood..So it's just as much an economic thing as it is anything else. The woman who directed the Hurt Locker last year is a good example. I'm also thinking about putting my money down on a huge longshot to win best Supporting Actress. I know Melissa Leo seems like a lock in that category. But the actress who impressed me the most was 14 year old Hailee Steinfield from True Grit. That little girl can really act. And I don't believe Grit would have been nearly the movie it was without her. Those are just a few thoughts guys. I just get that feeling this year's Academy Awards are going to be much like the Grammy's. I could be wrong, but I can see a lot of scattershot awards given out without any huge winners on the night.
I made one rather large bet back in January:
Best picture --> TKS +150
and added 3 smaller ones:
Best Foreign Movie --> Incendies +400
Best Original Score --> TKS +200
Best Art Direction --> Alice in Wonderland +700
Might also make some more bets (f.e. Best Live Action Short Na Wewe) at betfair, but not sure yet.
Best picture --> TKS +150
and added 3 smaller ones:
Best Foreign Movie --> Incendies +400
Best Original Score --> TKS +200
Best Art Direction --> Alice in Wonderland +700
Might also make some more bets (f.e. Best Live Action Short Na Wewe) at betfair, but not sure yet.
Thoughts/plays;
Main Categories
Film - Pretty confident King's Speech has this in the bag, but not enough to bet odds over -300. No bet.
Director - Think its Finch but odds near -200 aren't worth anything but a small bet.
Actor - Firth 95%+
Actress - Portman has literally every precursor award but I still firmly believe Bening could actually win. Odds are getting better for Bening, should be able to find at least 8-1.
Sup. Act - Its a small bet on Rush or nothing, odds slightly gone too far but Bale appears to be the winner.
Sup. Actress - Wild category, Leo started strong fav but faded with own shenanigans and general strength of other candidates. imo best bet is Amy Adams at odds between 25-40 to one. She has a legitimate shot of winning, Bonham-Carter at 8-1 or so maybe worth a small bet as well. fwiw Kirk Douglas supposed to be presenting this one, maybe old to young (Steinfeld) or perhaps its absolutely no factor (likeliest).
---------------------
Some notable bets elsewhere...
Foreign Film - Only three names being mentioned seriously, with Biutiful and In a Better World probably ahead of Incendies. Odds wise IABW at +225 or better the best way to go.
Score - Mentioned King's Speech previously, still worth a bet near +200 now.
Song - Toy Story track the likeliest but the 127 Hours song is probably the next favorite. +350 or better on If I Rise is worth a bet.
Cinematography - True Grit looking good but odds getting a little unappealing. Small bet on -200 if you can get that.
Costume - Mentioned previously I think Alice is ahead of King's Speech. Slightly above even odds still available.
Maybe one or two more decent plays later.
Main Categories
Film - Pretty confident King's Speech has this in the bag, but not enough to bet odds over -300. No bet.
Director - Think its Finch but odds near -200 aren't worth anything but a small bet.
Actor - Firth 95%+
Actress - Portman has literally every precursor award but I still firmly believe Bening could actually win. Odds are getting better for Bening, should be able to find at least 8-1.
Sup. Act - Its a small bet on Rush or nothing, odds slightly gone too far but Bale appears to be the winner.
Sup. Actress - Wild category, Leo started strong fav but faded with own shenanigans and general strength of other candidates. imo best bet is Amy Adams at odds between 25-40 to one. She has a legitimate shot of winning, Bonham-Carter at 8-1 or so maybe worth a small bet as well. fwiw Kirk Douglas supposed to be presenting this one, maybe old to young (Steinfeld) or perhaps its absolutely no factor (likeliest).
---------------------
Some notable bets elsewhere...
Foreign Film - Only three names being mentioned seriously, with Biutiful and In a Better World probably ahead of Incendies. Odds wise IABW at +225 or better the best way to go.
Score - Mentioned King's Speech previously, still worth a bet near +200 now.
Song - Toy Story track the likeliest but the 127 Hours song is probably the next favorite. +350 or better on If I Rise is worth a bet.
Cinematography - True Grit looking good but odds getting a little unappealing. Small bet on -200 if you can get that.
Costume - Mentioned previously I think Alice is ahead of King's Speech. Slightly above even odds still available.
Maybe one or two more decent plays later.
I disagree. Bale isn't the most liked actor in Hollywood because of all of his on set tirades. It will probably be a mark against him in voting for the big prize. He's still the favorite. But I think Geoffrey Rush has a chance. He's been around forever, and he's a great actor..His chances especially start going up if the awards start coming in one after another for the King's Speech.
