***2 Game RL Chasers***

[Mistermj]

St. Louis has +1.25 units in the bank for us already with their Run Line win last night...but we have to sweat out the SF game 2 yet.

A busy night for us...that's what makes this system fun...and we aren't getting killed yet...so enjoy it while it lasts people. :toast:

The Giants go to game 2 of the series...I guess I should be happy we have a home dog...all they have to do is win...but I prefer heavy faves on the RL.

Good luck! I really like both of the game 1 match ups...but what do I know?

LAD @ San Francisco ML +120 GM 2 for 2 units

Tuesday starts

Philly @ Chicago Cubs -1.5 +170 GM 1 for 1 unit @)

Pitt @ Colorado -1.5 +115 GM 1 for 1 unit

For FAQ and detailed instructions to play this simple system , see post #202 for more information.

http://www.therxforum.com/showpost.p...&postcount=202

 

[Mistermj]

Certainly wasn't saying longer is better. Was just saying what I've been using. You may be right about shortening it up as the season gets longer though. The reason I have kept it longer is because I take home /away into account as well. L20 may not be enough for me if a team is coming home off a long road trip.

Yup...no right or wrong answers here...but it's fun to talk about.

Your point about L20 not being enough if a team is coming off a long road trip...that's correct...I get a shortened sample size...but it is still self correcting to my way of thinking. In the few games in my sample, that team would have had to have some back to back games or at least a winning series with very good numbers to still qualify...that's still "something" to go on...rather than nothing.

And it's the most recent history which I don't have a real problem with wagering on a good performance to repeat based on the last performance. I mean...what else do we have to go by?

I'm not sure either is right or wrong in any way I can pin down yet.

Lots of room for interpetation here...in fact it remains to be seen if we should be wagering more on game 1's and not doing the game 2's at all or just flat betting them.

I can hear the people already...no I'm not going to lengthen the chase to 3 games. I strongly disagree with that. :lol:

 

[aderol]

Colorado has a pitching change. If you don't mind my asking, how much does a pitching change factor in to the system?

 

[Mistermj]

Colorado has a pitching change. If you don't mind my asking, how much does a pitching change factor in to the system?

Pitching is factored into the system...big time...but individual match ups are not considered...unless they so effect the odds that it disqualifies the pick with our <-115 rule.

I know it takes some faith to not consider the individual match ups...but remember this...if it mattered as much as we all tend to think it does...we'd all be a lot better at picking individual games...and the system is set up to give us 2 chances... to in effect win our wager.

It's a shotgun approach that lessens the effect of individual match ups.

All of this is subject to debate...and probably fairly controversial.

So far...the record kind of speaks for itself...we'll see.

To answer your question...pitching change? We don't care as long as it still gives us a qualifying ML or Run Line.

I guess if the pitching change was a rare or desperate change that went from an established starter to some puss arm AAA just to fill a start...that would be different.

Common sense still rules and there is nothing wrong with skipping a game and waiting for the next set.

 

[DrBruce]

If pitching is factored into the system, why was SF a series play with neither Lincecum or Cain scheduled? If you don't mind my asking for some clarification.

 

[geeze]

The more I look at Mistermj's method the more interesting it becomes.
Any 50% win rate where the winners are all plus money, and the losers are fixed at one flat unit is a successful system.

However if we look at Mistermj's record, it is 36-18. ( After multiplying the 6 losses by 3 to even up the money)

Now that equates to a 66% win rate, with all the wins at plus money.

I think Mrmj has experienced a creative epiphany.

And I will continue to happily follow him for fun and excitement.

Continued good luck, Mistermj.

 

[Mistermj]

If pitching is factored into the system, why was SF a series play with neither Lincecum or Cain scheduled? If you don't mind my asking for some clarification.

To be more clear...pitching is considered as a team concept...individual match ups are not considered.(although they still are reflected in the odds...and that also plays into our success or lack of)

I often have a different way of looking at things that totally blows away conventional wisdom and so called "rules" of handicapping.

I like it that way...let everybody else pick over the bones of so called conventional wisdom.

It's not perfect...and you may very well be bringing up a defect.

As I've said earlier today...I think back to back home ML dogs may be a red flag to filter these match ups out...I'm not crazy about this SF pick...which in effect would probably make you right about your point..

We may not want these types of match ups because the stats I'm using do not really reflect well on this particular rotation.

It's still a process...I would still like to play these so we can get an idea of how they perform.

If you read between the lines...I'm being careful in my personal betting with this match up.

I'm on it...and leaning strongly toward a new filter...but lets give it just a little more time...maybe the dog ML's will still be enough leverage to make up for the perceived defect.

3/4 of the equation is still there after all....we can assume the team is stroking the ball well, bullpens are efficient and the team defense is making outs.

 

[Mistermj]

The more I look at Mistermj's method the more interesting it becomes.
Any 50% win rate where the winners are all plus money, and the losers are fixed at one flat unit is a successful system.

However if we look at Mistermj's record, it is 36-18. ( After multiplying the 6 losses by 3 to even up the money)

Now that equates to a 66% win rate, with all the wins at plus money.

I think Mrmj has experienced a creative epiphany.

And I will continue to happily follow him for fun and excitement.

Continued good luck, Mistermj.

I think Mrmj has experienced a creative epiphany.

I kind of like this guy...take notes. d1g1t :toast:

 

[roc18]

Thanks

 

[Mistermj]

Really good stuff in here today...I get back as much as I give.

Good questions and observations help me crystallize my own thoughts or it teaches me something.

Gotta go....grass to cut and daughters to pick up.

Good luck...I have a good feeling about tonight...but what do I know? :toast:

 

[zionne]

good luck

 

[roc18]

The more I look at Mistermj's method the more interesting it becomes.
Any 50% win rate where the winners are all plus money, and the losers are fixed at one flat unit is a successful system.

However if we look at Mistermj's record, it is 36-18. ( After multiplying the 6 losses by 3 to even up the money)

Now that equates to a 66% win rate, with all the wins at plus money.

I think Mrmj has experienced a creative epiphany.

And I will continue to happily follow him for fun and excitement.

Continued good luck, Mistermj.

Wow thanks, I was wondering what the record was if you just followed all of MJ's RL Chases with flat betting.

 

[EzMoney012]

Im gonna run with this! GOOD LUCK TO US ALL!

 

[MackDonald]

I think you'd be right up there. The run-line adds a dimention of "excitement".

 

[loukythe]

hi thk mj for yesterday 1/2 tonigh i play the "start" good luck all at tomorrow for watch if my mini bank up or down ^^:lol:

 

[ivan722]

Mistermj at the break the system record was 23-4 for +19.56 units.
Can you tell me what the overall record is now or what it is since the break?

:howdy:

 

[nikeairx]

ivan i dont want to sound like an ass to you haha but ill do the math with you, but if the system was 23-4 at the break and is Overall series 36-6 +28.29 Units, now that means since the break the system is 13-2... its ok ivan let sjust keep cashing on these plays haha GL TONIGHT

 

[ivan722]

ivan i dont want to sound like an ass to you haha but ill do the math with you, but if the system was 23-4 at the break and is Overall series 36-6 +28.29 Units, now that means since the break the system is 13-2... its ok ivan let sjust keep cashing on these plays haha GL TONIGHT

Thanks for your input there Nikeairx and even though my question wasn't directed to you, I would never consider someone like you an 'ass'.
By the same token I don't want to or intend to make you look like an 'ass' in front of everyone else either but I obviously didn't see or rather missed the 36-6 record, with the +28.29 units posted, otherwise I wouldn't have asked the question.
It's ok Nikeairx, lets just keep appreciating Mistermj's (you know the person my question was intended for) system and cashing the plays. (ha, ha, ha)
Bol tonight.

 

[roc18]

Real Tough day. I honestly didnt see this coming. I'm gonna start flat betting these chases, since they are hitting at a decent rate.

 

[southbeach]

gl on wensday thats all I care about lol