***2 Game RL Chasers***

[Mistermj]

I've always wanted a system for baseball that gives me more action all summer. It should be simple, low cost (dog lines or low juice) and easy to run.

This is my attempt at that. I've looked at many "chase" systems which often do well..until they have a bad run, and then a few bad chases breaks the bank. 1,2, 4 unit progressions lose 7 units with a loss....way too much risk.

Anything over a 2 game chase is too much risk in my opinion. I think I can justify a 2 game chase by using the better odds of Run Lines.

The way I look at it...it's not so much a chase as looking at a 2 game window of opportunity to win one Run line wager.

We have 2 games to win one Run line for profit using just a simple 1 unit, 2 unit progression with plus odds or low juice.

To give us the best chance at winning one Run line wager out of two attempts...this is my plan.

1. Each chase will involve ONLY the first two games of a series.

2. The chases will be determined by finding match ups with the very best performance stats of the previous 25 games. We will chase only the very best teams vs. the very worst teams of previous 25 games...based on a set of performance stats. There must be a wide difference between the two teams performance in the last 25 games. We need more than just a win...we also need the matchups with the best chance of winning by -1.5 runs.

3. A last 7 games filter will also be used to weed out a team in a very bad recent hitting slump.

I'm running out of time...I can go into more detail later.

Here are the first chases for this weekend series...sorry for the late post.

Tampa -1.5 -120

Yankees -1.5 -120

 

[MackDonald]

Already with you; good luck to us and [all].

 

[meaculpa]

hope this system will be as good as all your others

Best of luck!

 

[Mistermj]

Onto game 2 for both match ups on Saturday...I hope we hit at least one of them.

Tampa -1.5 +130 $100

Yankees -1.5 -110 $100

Both wagers are for 2 units and are the last game of the two game Run Line chase.

For record keeping purposes I'm going to make one unit = $50.

There are many ways to play this...adjust for your own bankroll and money management goals.

This is very experimental, I'd suggest you keep it small until we see what happens.

 

[kraz]

will follow, gl mj

 

[Mistermj]

The first 2 game chases end with the Yanks losing both Run Lines and Tampa pounds out a nice Run Line chase winner in game 2 of the Run Line chase.

I like to keep it simple...this is scored as one unit on game 1 and two units on game 2. Each unit is $50 for record keeping purposes.

Series Record 1-1 -$100 -2 units

New series start Monday and Tuesday.

 

[JimmyJet]

Good Luck MJ with new system!

 

[WorldNumberOne]

not hating , but this probably wont work.

too many 1 run games happen.

i do like the idea of having the plays be plus money , cause the juice will crush a bankroll with a 3 or 4 game loss at minus odds...

 

[MackDonald]

Good point "number one". I gues it all boiles down to how each sports fan likes to carve his bird.

Good luck

 

[Mistermj]

There is just one chase that qualifies for this series. Good luck!

The rules are simple.

2 game chase on the Run Line or take the dog odds. One unit for game 1, two units for game 2...thats it.

Gm 1 Yankees -1½ -175 $50

Series Record 1-1 -$100 -2 units (1 unit =$50)

 

[Mistermj]

Yankees get it done with a Run line winner in game 1 for $50.

Series Record 2-1
-$50 -1 units (1 unit =$50)

 

[Mistermj]

Ok...made some changes here. I'm learning as I go and adjusting to that. I still don't know if I can make this work...but I'm going to keep trying.

When I'm obsessed with something like this...well...you better just step aside. LOL. d1g1t

Here are the new rules...same as the old rules except for emphasis on Home and Away stats for each match up...and using the last 20 days.

To give us the best chance at winning one Run line wager out of two attempts...this is my plan.

1. Each chase will involve ONLY the first two games of a series.

2. The chases will be determined by finding match ups with the very best performance stats of the previous 20 games. We will chase only the very best teams vs. the very worst teams of previous 20 games...based on a set of performance stats for Home and Away. There must be a wide difference between the two teams performance in the last 20 games (=>+2 run differential). We need more than just a win...we also need the match ups with the best chance of winning by -1.5 runs.

3. A last 7 games filter will also be used to weed out a team in a very bad recent hitting slump.

4. Home team must have a winning home record in L20 vs. Away team losing record in L20. ( This will usually be the case anyway but helps filter out run differential anomalies).

5. Use just dog odds or <= -110 for game if it's not a dog Run Line.

Here is the only chase for the weekend series.


Colorado Rockies -1½ +130 $50 for Game 1 of the chase (1 unit , 2 unit progression. 1 unit =$50 for record keeping purposes).

Series Record 0-0-0

 

[Mistermj]

Beautiful start...Rocks pound out a +130 Run line with no problem.

Series record 1-0 $65 +1.3 units

That's it until Monday or Tuesday.

 

[lax_gunman]

suprised to c you had a bet during interleague play so I had to jump on it...love those ez wins
too bad that community runline experiment didn't work, just too many ideas
gl with this system...ty for the pick

 

[Mistermj]

It looks like I might be filtering out too many of these Run Line Chasers.

I'm not sure which is the best way to go here...volume or tight filters with less picks.

Lets track both...and see what happens.

Best picks series 1-0 +1.30 units.

Overall series 4-1 ( I didn't post these but want to start tracking the record)

Next series.

Best pick Padres @ Mariners starts Tuesday

Also tracking the following series

Monday starts

Rockies @ Angels -1.5 +170
Giants @ Athletics -1.5 +140

Tuesday starts

Phillies @ Rays
Indians @ Pirates

This is going to be a self serve thread. I'm not going to get bogged down posting every line ect and holding hands. If you want to play them...read my posts and figure it out for yourself. It's not that hard...if you are totally confused then ask a question.

It's simple...these are 2 game Run Line chases on the HOME team for the first two games of a series, chasing for 1 win out of 2 games. I'm using a simple 1 unit, 2 unit progression for record keeping purposes. That's it.

The "Best Picks" are in "theory" the best match ups using stats from the last 20 days.

I'm also tracking the next best picks...so to speak...to see if filtering helps...or if we should just play all of them.

Play at your own risk...this is experimental.

 

[MackDonald]

Great things can evolve from "experiments; good luck with your strategy

 

[Mistermj]

Two series winners so far...Oakland in game 1 on the RL and the Angels last night in game 2 as a dog ML.(If we get dog odds just play the ML...no need for the Run Line).

Three series go to the final game 2 of the chase tonight.

Rays -1.5 +120 2 units

Pirates -1.5 + 160 2units

Mariners -1.5 + 150 2 units

Two out of 3 would be great....but 1 RL win out of the 3 still gives us plus units for this set. Good luck!

 

[Mistermj]

Lets go Mariners...for the RL system sweep!

No matter what...I like what I see here so far. :drink:

 

[abc09]

The "Best Picks" are in "theory" the best match ups using stats from the last 20 days.

MJ, please more specific about the last 20 days. Are you based on win/loss, run, hit, BA...?

 

[Mistermj]

The "Best Picks" are in "theory" the best match ups using stats from the last 20 days.

MJ, please more specific about the last 20 days. Are you based on win/loss, run, hit, BA...?

I'm using the best run differential teams at HOME from the L20 days vs the worst run differential from the L20 days AWAY.

Chase teams are always HOME.

I also look at L7 days OPS to filter out any recent hitting slumps.