play small at first. You'll pickup things as you play. As you become more comfortable with figuring the odds versus the game situation, don't be afraid to lay long odds. I find that much of my profit comes from laying 1100 to win 100, in a situation where I will lose (I estimate) 1 in 20 or less often. And you will lose some of those. Most people don't have the stomach or bankroll to do that, and would much rather have the +1100 side, so they can bet small. Take advantage of the +EV opportunity.
Another tip -- well, a mistake that, amazingly, I still make is this: you need to remember that during live betting, if you're making offers (you should), girlfriends, wives, kids, phones, taking a piss, eating, and changing channels during a commercial ARE YOUR WORST ENEMY!! Don't hang that line up there without having both eyes on the game! Don't get distracted! It's very easy, and I've lost untold amounts of money by doing so, and still occasionally goof this up. When Brady fumbles after being sacked and the Jacksonville recovers, and you're mid-stream taking piss, it's WAY TOO LATE to take down that New England -224 that your were offering. The order is filled, and the new odds are now Jacksonville -120/New England +102. You've got New England at -224 for 3 dimes. Ouch!
One more - watch out for the trap setters. You'll see people offering something WAY out of whack, like Alabama at -700, towards the end of tonight's game, where the proper odds, and best available offer, is +300. People do that because every once in a while, this happens: you click the box for the best odds (in this example, Ala +300), and quickly enter your bet and click confirm to lock in the price. You're grabbing some 'bama at +300 for whatever reason (hedging, value, fun, etc.). Just before you clicked the +300 box, however, that offer was taken down, or filled. As that happened, the crazy Alabama -700 offer became the best offer, and you actually clicked on that box. It didn't help that your girlfriend was yelling at you to walk your dog just as this all happened, further distracting you. Anyways, you tell her to get lost, with one eye on the game, as usual, and confirm in a hurry, not taking a careful look at your order before doing so. You just took Alabama at awful odds, and confirmed. Sucks to be you. People do this all the time, and I've been a victim before. IT SUCKS! And it's much easier to fall prey to than it sounds by my description above. People can't do this on a game with lots of volume (they need their offer to be second best, and suddenly spring to the best available), but on a game where there is typically only one or two offers up at a time (happens all the time), people lay these traps and get free money. Don't let them get yours.
I guess the underlying theme is to play small at first and go make your mistakes on $11 dollar bets, not $11,111 bets!
I really don't see why you are complaining about the terrible odds being posted, if they're that bad, just post up odds that are slightly better but still highly in your favor, like post up -4900 odds so that if anyone wants to take that side, they match your wager first.
Some of the other posters on here got it right when they said that it's not the odds themselves, but the odds you are getting in relation to the true odds...if you can spot value, you can make a very nice profit. Sometimes that means getting +5000 odds when the true odds are 1 in 40, not 1 in 50, and sometimes that means getting -5000 when the true odds are 59 in 60, not 49 in 50. Sure if you have a small bankroll, finding value on the + odds is much safer, but that doesn't mean there isn't value on the seemingly ridiculous -5000 odds....that being said, more often than not those ridiculous -5000 odds are only there because some bettor already bought up all of the reasonable odds and that was the only one left. Either that or it's a sharp bettor putting that number out there in the hope that some fish will bite and he can soon after buy back on the other side at more reasonable odds for a guaranteed profit.
There are some real idiots on Matchbook, and I for one am glad of it, without those idiots I wouldn't have gotten +3400 odds on something where the odds should've been closer to -3400.
Some of the other posters on here got it right when they said that it's not the odds themselves, but the odds you are getting in relation to the true odds...if you can spot value, you can make a very nice profit. Sometimes that means getting +5000 odds when the true odds are 1 in 40, not 1 in 50, and sometimes that means getting -5000 when the true odds are 59 in 60, not 49 in 50. Sure if you have a small bankroll, finding value on the + odds is much safer, but that doesn't mean there isn't value on the seemingly ridiculous -5000 odds....that being said, more often than not those ridiculous -5000 odds are only there because some bettor already bought up all of the reasonable odds and that was the only one left. Either that or it's a sharp bettor putting that number out there in the hope that some fish will bite and he can soon after buy back on the other side at more reasonable odds for a guaranteed profit.
There are some real idiots on Matchbook, and I for one am glad of it, without those idiots I wouldn't have gotten +3400 odds on something where the odds should've been closer to -3400.
Here is what I did in tonights first game:
Duke -12.5 (-114) risking $342 to win $300
Temple +13.5 (+182) risking $220 to win $400
Obviously Duke before the game started and Temple just now. I will profit $80 if Duke covers 12.5 and $58 if Temple covers 13.5.
Now onto Pittsburgh/South Florida. I got Pittsburgh -2.5 (-103) prior to tip-off, risking $309 to win $300.
Duke -12.5 (-114) risking $342 to win $300
Temple +13.5 (+182) risking $220 to win $400
Obviously Duke before the game started and Temple just now. I will profit $80 if Duke covers 12.5 and $58 if Temple covers 13.5.
Now onto Pittsburgh/South Florida. I got Pittsburgh -2.5 (-103) prior to tip-off, risking $309 to win $300.
Okay, that one is done. On to the last live betting event of the evening, Detroit/Dallas in the NBA.
Pittsburgh -2.5 (-103) risking $309 to win $300
South Florida +2.5 (+141) risking $250 to win $352
That guarantees me $50 if Pittsburgh covers 2.5 and $43 if South Florida covers 2.5. Simple as that.
And by the way, I calculate what will provide me the profit I want (in this instance, I was waiting for +135 or better on South Florida) and bet it at the point that I have selected.
Pittsburgh -2.5 (-103) risking $309 to win $300
South Florida +2.5 (+141) risking $250 to win $352
That guarantees me $50 if Pittsburgh covers 2.5 and $43 if South Florida covers 2.5. Simple as that.
And by the way, I calculate what will provide me the profit I want (in this instance, I was waiting for +135 or better on South Florida) and bet it at the point that I have selected.
I'm sure that happens at times, but it would need to be a pretty big blowout for me not to buy back most of my losses. Teams go on runs and if the favorite is down and the dog is leading by say 15 points, and the favorite goes on a run making the lead only 5, I figure I could buy back 75% or more of my initial bet on the favorite if I really felt they were going to lose.
It's a grind, definitely but worth the profit, in my opinion.
