West Coast/Pac-10 Week 12

[Conan]

Rounding the turn coming into the home stretch and a lot has shifted in the Pac-10 conference. Say for example UW and WSU have "lit up" if you consider a flicker.

I think UW will put out their best effort this weekend. They actually had ASU on their heels for a while, leading them in the 3rd quarter 19-16 before they tuckerd out and let Carpenter take over. UCLA has no one like Carpenter on that team and UW's strongest ground defense could be enough to stop the Bruins. Who knows, Craft may even donate a pick 6 or two! I must admit that I played UW with 7.5 vs UCLA. Anyone else (other than WSU) in the conference and I'd never consider it. UCLA is very beatable away from Pasadena. UW needs this game for the sake of pride. I think they will show up after looking sort of live last week.

Stanford is another home dog I like with 22 points. Carroll has stated that he's not about scoring style points. Stanford plays bruising football and they will at least slow down USC's offense keeping the game within reason. Stanford isn't one for making mistakes either and they will try to MAKE USC earn every yard. I think they will have some success running the ball vs USC's defense, maybe the only other team (aside from Or.St.) who is capable of doing that. Don't let the idea of revenge get to you and lead you into thinking USC will just mercilessly pound them.

Here's my slate for this coming weekend: (all bets are in) Wow it looks like ASU has taken off moving 2 points since I started writing this. I sill think they will win by a ton as WSU is on the road and there will be no "clapping fans" for them. (Thanks CW for the insight.)

OR-3.5/AZ*
OSU-3/Cal*
Stan+22/USC*
UW+7.5/UCLA*
ASU-34/WSU*
NEV-14/SJSU*

 

[jimmymo]

Really like Stanford this week as well Conan...they seemed to still be underrated, and will punch right back at USC...of course, we have the big revenge angle and I think this line my get pushed a bit as bettors start the "USC is pissed for revenge" angle....thing is, they can be as pissed as they want....won't make them perform better.


If there is anything that the UW fanbase wants more than anything this year, its for this team to rise from the ashes of disgrace and make Skippy New-weasal walk out of Husky Stadium a loser.

GL this week Conan......:aktion033

 

[Conan]

Really like Stanford this week as well Conan...they seemed to still be underrated, and will punch right back at USC...of course, we have the big revenge angle and I think this line my get pushed a bit as bettors start the "USC is pissed for revenge" angle....thing is, they can be as pissed as they want....won't make them perform better.


If there is anything that the UW fanbase wants more than anything this year, its for this team to rise from the ashes of disgrace and make Skippy New-weasal walk out of Husky Stadium a loser.

GL this week Conan......:aktion033

If there's anything else that feels right now is how visitors will find it very harsh playing in Oregon this time of the year. Oregon should perform OK all propped up with Masoli allowing his playmakers to work the offense for him. He seems ready to play some mistake free competent QB. I also think their defense can manage to keep Tuitama on his heels, particularly if they can contain the rush which seems doable in Zona's case. He looked OK in the winning drive that put Stanford away last week.

Cal I am afraid will run into an offensive buzzsaw and a defense that takes no prisoners at Reser. They must be feeling a bit down after USC ripped the rug out from under them last week... their hopes for a conference championship right down the drain. Maybe another emotional collapse like last season? It wouldn't be the first time that's happened, or the second time either. It seems that Riley has won back the starting job since Longshore never played last week. Riley had a pretty lackluster performance too. Interesting. Cal now seems to have a couple of pretty lame QB's considering what everyone thought they started with at the beginning of the year. Some of Oregon State's DL's and LB's have been making quite a name for themselves lately. Slater and Norris have been piling on the sacks. Watch them get to Riley about 3 or 4 times in the game. It's definitely just not all about Cal's LB's here. Speaking of Cal's LB's, let's see what they can manage to do to stop Rogers & Rogers, assuming that they can handle Morales and Sammy Straughter. I believe Moevao will be starting but it looks like Canfield can run the offense pretty well too. Advantage Reser Stadium. 3 points ain't squat.

 

[Conan]

Really like Stanford this week as well Conan...they seemed to still be underrated, and will punch right back at USC...of course, we have the big revenge angle and I think this line my get pushed a bit as bettors start the "USC is pissed for revenge" angle....thing is, they can be as pissed as they want....won't make them perform better.


If there is anything that the UW fanbase wants more than anything this year, its for this team to rise from the ashes of disgrace and make Skippy New-weasal walk out of Husky Stadium a loser.

GL this week Conan......:aktion033

surprise surprise jimmymo... the Stanford/USC line is now 23. Getting better all the time.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

conan,

I want to take OSU, I really do...but probably won't be on them this week...what's the latest with the QB situation?...GL this week...

 

[gynecologist]

I'm going to wait on a few things before I get involved with the Pac-10 games this week..

GL and will refer to your thread often for the latest news.

 

[jimmymo]

If there's anything else that feels right now is how visitors will find it very harsh playing in Oregon this time of the year.

On the Ducks -3 for 2 units...so far my only play....will hit Stanford soon though, but not as hard.

 

[Conan]

conan,

I want to take OSU, I really do...but probably won't be on them this week...what's the latest with the QB situation?...GL this week...

Pags, I really do understand the Cal fear factor here. IMHO, as I've been following this Beaver team pretty closely week after week from spring practice on. They feel like they are playing their best football now. They are a very confident team. They truly believe that they can beat anybody. And their heads are screwed on straight. That's one thing that makes Riley's coaching staff as good as it is. His players are mentally prepared.

His coaching staff's has the ability to spot unrated recruits with a lot of potential, then coach them up into all conference players... that's about as good as it gets anywhere. But that's one one reason why they don't get the recognition they should. Nobody's ever heard of their players before... (except perhaps Quizz in Texas.) They are usually a bunch of underrated unknowns and I think most lines reflect that. You may not find too many headliner recruits around that school, but you will find some excellent players that play on Sunday now who are from there. (At least now they are ranked 23rd in the AP.)

Riley should get Pac-10 coach of the year honors because... for one thing, remember that they started with 7 new DL's. And the word on the street was that their DL was a disaster. Turns out that they are very athletic and faster than last season's edition.

In the beginning they didn't have an OL worth a damn either. Now look. Their OL supports a freshman running back who's leading the conference. Then there's his brother. Moevao gets the time he needs too and often but he can pick up the first downs if necessary himself. And he's one of the top QB's in the Pac. Straughter and Morales are two of the very best WR's in the Pac this season. All that has developed since last season. I'd say their offense reminds me more of Oregon's offense than Oregon's does this year. It's a multi-headed beast.

Their schedule has been a perfect fit for a team with a lot of new players on a gradient learning curve. We know how well they can play when their game is on from watching them play USC. But their every day grind so far which has given them experience has also allowed them to reach this point with a winning record, first place in the conference, (as they get to know each other and master the offensive and defensive schemes.) Their schedule has gradually gotten harder from from the beginning to perhaps peak at Zona next week. I think they are ready for Cal.

Considering all that, plus the Cal fear factor, I'd have to guess that home field advantage will be the spark that wins this game. I think they have one of the longer home winning streaks in the conference and maybe CFB at this time.

Riley or Longshore would need one hell of a good game vs one of the best passing defenses in the Pac-10 to get anywhere. Maybe Cal does have a few playmakers (and they've recently lost one or two) who will need to make plays for Cal to compete. That's what it will take. I can't see them winning any other way, and I've also seen the Beavers throw away 2 games this season. But that's also a way of seeing just how good they could be if they were a little more careful.

Riley is a better game day coach than Tedford is too. I know he makes some very screwy mistakes on occasion (God don't we all) but the rest of the time they are usually right on with their game plans and mid-game adjustments.

I think Moevao will play. He was close to making it last Saturday. Hope you don't mind an earful hear Pags but that's most of what I know about the Beaver side and I just thought I'd put it out there. They also happen to be at their healthiest now, especially if Moevao's bruised shoulder has healed up and he's ready to play.

OC Langsdorf will be working the offense against 4 LB's all week. DC Banker? Well I hope he doesn't do TOO well because I'd like to see him stick around for a few years. And yeah, Cal might have this one circled. That thought has also crossed my mind.

 

[gynecologist]

Why do you like Arizona Conan?

 

[Conan]

Why do you like Arizona Conan?

Gyno, if you meant Arizona, I don't like them, I like Oregon.

If you meant ASU, it's the same old thing with WSU in spite of them showing a spark of offense vs Zona at home last week. This time WSU is on the road and I still think Carpenter has a good game in him at home, especially vs these guys. ASU's young defense should play much better at home too. Gonna be a route -- 55-13ish. I doubt WSU gets to 20 again, maybe in the Apple Bowl but not this week.

 

[gynecologist]

I'm glad, like Oregon as well..

 

[Conan]

I'm glad, like Oregon as well..

Yeah, I think I feel the mojo this week Gyno. 4-2, 5-1 who knows, maybe I will nail them all. Feels like money as is. I think I'll upgrade one or 2 of them to best bets... maybe I'll start with Sanford.... then Oregon then ???

Here's the order of preference according to strength of play as I see it today (could change) -- with current lines:

Stanford+23
Oregon-3
Oregon St.-3
Nevada-14
ASU-36
UW+7.5

I'll probably do some upgrading or shuffling as the week progresses.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

conan,

excellent analysis bro...is Morales going to be back for this one?...I just can't get out of my head how hard Cal's defense has been hitting the last two weeks...

 

[Conan]

MORALES UPDATE: WR Shane Morales is having an x-ray on his hip Monday after straining a muscle during Friday's walk through in Corvallis. The coaches hoped he would be able to play and he did start, but the pain was to great and he was taken out after the first snap. Sophomore Casey Kjos took his place in the lineup. If Morales if not ready to play this weekend, Kjos will likely receive his first career start. Riley also hinted that TE John Reese could line up in the slot as well.

From here it seems doubtful that he will start. But it's possible that it will be something minor that won't last another week. He's a big playmaker and would definitely be useful to have Saturday. But the Beavers have all week to deal with this and their depth ain't so bad.

 

[Conan]

conan,

excellent analysis bro...is Morales going to be back for this one?...I just can't get out of my head how hard Cal's defense has been hitting the last two weeks...

Cal has problems with good passing teams. That seems to somehow soften up their middle a la USC who rushed for an acceptable 175 yards against them (240 yds. passing) even though they fizzled out several times due to horrible field position and lack of TOP. Penalties were also part of it. OSU's running game is also pretty good. Riley's adjustments opened things up in the 2H vs UCLA.

If Moevao plays that will be another big plus because he can run too. He'll find his guys whomever they may be. Canfield less so but he's nothing to sneeze at. Tavita Thompson back with the starting OL has also helped a lot. Their OL depth is looking good with Mike Remmers doing an excellent job on the OL in Thompson's absence. The Beaver offense has many more weapons than the Bears are used to seeing from them as well as other opponents this year.

I bet them at 3 because I think they'll win the game but I'd be a little reluctant to bet them at 4. More than that would be an issue. More than 7 impossible. However, I'm thinking that maybe Riley or Longshore will turn the ball over. That's another possibility if they try to force anything. The Beaver's pass defense is very good, opportunistic too.

Writing them off here would be a mistake because they've handled the Bears pretty well in recent years.

 

[Conan]

For a lark I'd put UCLA on upset special and throw a bone at UW on the ML. I think the Bruins will have problems with UW's size in the middle. Should cause their offense (what there is of it) to struggle mightily at times. (UW's OL is also huge.) Maybe they will succeed in stopping the Bruin rush. That leaves it up to Craft.... follow my thinking?

 

[nd2000]

For a lark I'd put UCLA on upset special and throw a bone at UW on the ML. I think the Bruins will have problems with UW's size in the middle. Should cause their offense (what there is of it) to struggle mightily at times. (UW's OL is also huge.) Maybe they will succeed in stopping the Bruin rush. That leaves it up to Craft.... follow my thinking?

Is UCLA pretty healthy for this contest?

 

[AlwaysKeen]

just watched the OSU vs. UCLA tape...I just haven't seen OSU play with the same energy I saw them play with earlier in the year...not saying I would even consider Cal here, but I can't play OSU...will be rooting for you though...

 

[Conan]

just watched the OSU vs. UCLA tape...I just haven't seen OSU play with the same energy I saw them play with earlier in the year...not saying I would even consider Cal here, but I can't play OSU...will be rooting for you though...

No question about it Pags, the Beavers were especially torqued for the USC game. I doubt that Cal will raise their dander quite the same way as USC, because after all, USC is USC. However Cal will still raise everyone's BP and heart rate a bit more than the Bruins did because they are perceived to be a much bigger threat. And in general the Beavers do seem more animated when they play at Reser. I also think they were hampered a little under Canfield compared to the way they play under Moevao's leadership.

Also I have noted that this series has belonged to the visitor the past 4 years. But just like the Civil War last year which had been a home dominated series up to that point in time, that's long enough.

Thanks for the well wishes and good luck to you too.

 

[SizzleChest]

I have Cal +3 as my top play this week. I like the setup here with Oregon St. coming off a pounding of another Pac-10 team. Cal losing by a decent margin to USC and being on the road....and only a 3 point underdog? All the variables added together makes this a solid play for me...and look at the common opponents with OSU beating a USC squad at home...