West Coast/Pac-10 Week 12

[sarcean]

Its insane ASU is given 34 points against any BCS conference team...just shows how god awful Washington State is.

 

[Conan]

Its insane ASU is given 34 points against any BCS conference team...just shows how god awful Washington State is.

We have watched the slow decline of WSU ever since Mike Price left the job to his DC Lou Doba several years ago. Doba was an awful recruiter and was originally accused of winning with Price's recruits. Now 4 or so years after the fact, poor Paul Wulff's cupboard is bare... and man is it ever BARE! It will take him years to rebuild the program.

Finding a decent HC to take the job in the Palouse was a difficult task for WSU's athletic department. WSU's campus is 75 miles from nowhere among miles and miles of wheat fields in Eastern Washington. But there are those who call it home and Paul Wulff was one of them. Coming from EWU as their HC, he built a very respectable 1-AA team and won coach of the year honors in the (Big Sky?) conference. He was so good, many are saying that EWU's football team is where all the good Washinton recruits chose to go play (instead of WSU.) My bet is that he will attract them at WSU but we are talking years here.

Keep them in mind next year as a good fade... for a while perhaps at the beginning of next season. But if they keep getting 5 TD's worth of points, they might end up being a steal as the public will be very slow to react if Wulff does pull them out of the quagmire they are currently in.

 

[Conan]

Saturday is Drama Day in the Pac-10!

1. Zona plays UO. Wasn't it the Arizona game last year when Dennis Dixon went down for the season? Now they meet again! One more reason to like the Ducks Saturday is because they will be playing with pain on their minds.

2. Cal plays OSU. Keep in mind that LSU (#1) had lost their game before this game started. All the #2 ranked Bears needed to do was hold service at home vs. Oregon State and the world was their oyster. In the final 30 seconds of the game losing by 3 points and Cal driving inside the red zone, Cal's QB Riley decides to take off and run with the ball, get tackled in bounds with the clock running out, costing the Bears a chance at a game tying FG and a #1 national ranking. Thereafter the Cal clubhouse became a dangerous place for a sensible man to be. Cal went on to have one of the worst implosions in CFB history losing 6 of its last 7 games. They even lost to (2-9) Stanford providing first year coach Harbaugh and the Cardinal with his first head to head win over Cal who had dominated the series for 8 years.

3. Speaking of Stanford, they host USC after costing them a shot at the NC in '07. (as 41 point underdogs)

Just another day of football on the west coast.

 

[FairWarning]

Really outdid yourself with the info this week Conan. Thanks.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

conan,

can you please explain to me what the palouse is? hear the term mentioned several times but want to be clued in...thanks...

 

[Conan]

conan,

can you please explain to me what the palouse is? hear the term mentioned several times but want to be clued in...thanks...

It's a huge flat flyover area in eastern Washington and western Idaho north of the Snake River. The economy centers around wheat and 2 universities. Pullman, WA and Moscow, ID about 10 miles apart are the big towns, mostly full of students. It's a nice long drive to anywhere from either campus.

Read up on it more here if you feel like it.

 

[outhousetim]

Way to early to discuss this but

If it comes down to the civil war, Oregon has a rare two weeks to prepare for the game, while OSU will be off a tough game at Arizona.

 

[outhousetim]

Related to Washington

Make no mistake about it, THIS is Washington's season! They may or may not be good enough, but the fans could cause Washington to be jacked up to beat Slick Rick.

Anyone can score on Washington and one would think Craft will hit 65% here, but then again, UCLA is not likely to be as motivated here and come off a discouraging home loss.

Will test the waters with winless Washington who clearly could win SU (they are beyond hopeless if they get blown out in this situation).



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RX SemiGod



Join Date: Nov 1998
Posts: 13,996


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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by gynecologist
I'm glad, like Oregon as well..
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Yeah, I think I feel the mojo this week Gyno. 4-2, 5-1 who knows, maybe I will nail them all. Feels like money as is. I think I'll upgrade one or 2 of them to best bets... maybe I'll start with Sanford.... then Oregon then ???

Here's the order of preference according to strength of play as I see it today (could change) -- with current lines:

Stanford+23
Oregon-3
Oregon St.-3
Nevada-14
ASU-36
UW+7.5

I'll probably do some upgrading or shuffling as the week progresses.
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[Conan]

Make no mistake about it, THIS is Washington's season! They may or may not be good enough, but the fans could cause Washington to be jacked up to beat Slick Rick.

Anyone can score on Washington and one would think Craft will hit 65% here, but then again, UCLA is not likely to be as motivated here and come off a discouraging home loss.

Will test the waters with winless Washington who clearly could win SU (they are beyond hopeless if they get blown out in this situation).

Well the Huskies did have it going there for a while last week @ ASU. They were actually up 19-16 in the 3rd quarter (before ASU scored 23 unanswered points.) ASU has Rudy Carpenter but UCLA has Kevin Craft. I hope that turns out to make a difference this week.

 

[X-Caliber]

What do you think about the Wash/Ucla Under 47.5? I could see a lot of turnovers, but also hopefully a lot of fg's and punts.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

conan,

very interesting information...thank you sir...

 

[Conan]

What do you think about the Wash/Ucla Under 47.5? I could see a lot of turnovers, but also hopefully a lot of fg's and punts.

Well either of these 2 teams would consider putting up 20 points a scoring binge against any other team in the conference, but against each other there's a chance they could get into a limited shootout because neither defense is solid by a long shot and both are fighting (each other) to avoid lower position in the standings. But I don't think that will happen. 24 points each (there abouts) looks highly unlikely.

I think you have a winner. The under here looks about as good as anything else on the board this week.

 

[SKing24]

Oregon St backers....

I honestly think Canfield starting is a good thing for the Beavers. Aside from his early pick 6 against ASU he's been pretty darn good. Completing about 70% of his passes for an average of a little over 9yds per completion. He has a stronger arm than Moevao and his mobility shouldn't be too much of a factor since Cal doesn't get to the QB all that well. With OSU's size at WR against Cal's shorter db's and Morales ready to go, I think OSU has a recipe for success against Cal this week.

Sprinkle in OSU's late season record under Riley, OSU's vastly improving defense, home field ATS advantage, Cal's past couple seasons of implosions, Riley being a better coach than Tedford (IMO)....Bottom line is, even with Canfield at QB, Beavers get the job done Saturday.

 

[SizzleChest]

Again, California + dollars moneyline is a nice bet.

 

[SKing24]

Sizzle, I liked the Bears a couple weeks ago for similar reasons against Oregon so I do understand your reasoning. If I can play Devil's advocate for ya, here is what I saw with that line from an average Joe's perspective...actually comes from my buddy who had Cal as one of his plays this week. He is an OK capper and has his weeks, but generally pays out most Tuesdays. I always look to go against him so I found my own reasoning to take the Beavers. Now this isn't word for word, but pretty much what he said to me.

Who has Oregon St beaten lately? The few times I've seen them this year they got hammered by Penn St and Penn St just lost to Iowa...We both know PSU isn't nearly as good as the country thinks they are. The Hawks just beat them! Then I see them take out USC, that obviously was a fluke cuz then they lost to Utah who I've seen a couple times this year and haven't been impressed. Then they beat 2 high school teams out of Washington, barely escaped at home against an awful ASU squad and beat a very mediocre UCLA team. Seems to me like they haven't really beaten anyone worth a crap and didn't they even lose to Stanford??? This Oregon St team is overrated still from their USC win which was a fluke anyways.

On the other hand, I remember Cal knocking of Oregon a couple weeks back who is pretty good and then giving USC a darn good game. I expected them to lose that, but didn't expect them to play it so close. That must be the reason why the line is so low, OSU beat USC and Cal lost to them so the public is thinking that if OSU can beat USC and Cal loses to them OSU can definitely beat Cal...I'm getting great value here with the Bears cuz the public thinks this Beaver team is much better than they are and aren't giving Cal their due respect. Bears on the ML!!!

Take it FWIW...

 

[SizzleChest]

This is a message board chalked full of mere novice opinion's and California moneyline + dollars is one of them, but most importantly mine. I have a read and react style of handicapping and I read the line and am reacting. Don't need much more info for this to sell me on my favorite play of the week.

Just a handful of plays with value.

UNLV -9
Purdue +15
Mississippi St. +20
Toledo +15.5 (NICE PLAY)
California +3 (BEST BET

 

[Conan]

Oregon St backers....

I honestly think Canfield starting is a good thing for the Beavers. Aside from his early pick 6 against ASU he's been pretty darn good. Completing about 70% of his passes for an average of a little over 9yds per completion. He has a stronger arm than Moevao and his mobility shouldn't be too much of a factor since Cal doesn't get to the QB all that well. With OSU's size at WR against Cal's shorter db's and Morales ready to go, I think OSU has a recipe for success against Cal this week.

Sprinkle in OSU's late season record under Riley, OSU's vastly improving defense, home field ATS advantage, Cal's past couple seasons of implosions, Riley being a better coach than Tedford (IMO)....Bottom line is, even with Canfield at QB, Beavers get the job done Saturday.

I have to disagree with that appraisal SKing. Cal's DE's rate and getting to QB's is part of their very good defense. Canfield has been good vs the Bears and his last 2 games have been played very well but it's his immobility that presents a target for the Cal rush. It's not so much about Moevao's ability to roll out of the pocket that makes him better in this situation. I think Cal has the speed to run after him wherever he decides to play pass the ball, it's just that he can make the most of broken plays and tight coverages with his ability to scramble for yards that makes him better in this spot. Both QB's can throw the ball pretty well. It will be Oregon's rushing game that sets Cal on their heels if they can manage it. Cal's rushing defense is their only apparent weakness, though it's still somewhat average statistically.

All that being said, what worries me is the possiblity that Kevin Riley may come to Reser with his mind set on atoning for last years humongous fuckup in this game which subsequently lead to a Bear collapse. I just hope that he's forced to throw the ball instead of being given the choice with a rushing attack thats working out. If the Beavers do manage to pressure him into some forced plays, I hope their dbacks can make the most of some bad decisions.

This will be a close one. I don't count them out if Canfield plays, but they will need to be firing on all 8 to get past the Bears. Losing the last 2 games vs Cal at Reser might be enough to motivate them to focus and play harder.

 

[Conan]

Sizzle, I liked the Bears a couple weeks ago for similar reasons against Oregon so I do understand your reasoning. If I can play Devil's advocate for ya, here is what I saw with that line from an average Joe's perspective...actually comes from my buddy who had Cal as one of his plays this week. He is an OK capper and has his weeks, but generally pays out most Tuesdays. I always look to go against him so I found my own reasoning to take the Beavers. Now this isn't word for word, but pretty much what he said to me.

Who has Oregon St beaten lately? The few times I've seen them this year they got hammered by Penn St and Penn St just lost to Iowa...We both know PSU isn't nearly as good as the country thinks they are. The Hawks just beat them! Then I see them take out USC, that obviously was a fluke cuz then they lost to Utah who I've seen a couple times this year and haven't been impressed. Then they beat 2 high school teams out of Washington, barely escaped at home against an awful ASU squad and beat a very mediocre UCLA team. Seems to me like they haven't really beaten anyone worth a crap and didn't they even lose to Stanford??? This Oregon St team is overrated still from their USC win which was a fluke anyways.

On the other hand, I remember Cal knocking of Oregon a couple weeks back who is pretty good and then giving USC a darn good game. I expected them to lose that, but didn't expect them to play it so close. That must be the reason why the line is so low, OSU beat USC and Cal lost to them so the public is thinking that if OSU can beat USC and Cal loses to them OSU can definitely beat Cal...I'm getting great value here with the Bears cuz the public thinks this Beaver team is much better than they are and aren't giving Cal their due respect. Bears on the ML!!!

Take it FWIW...

OK on the other hand, your friends logic is full of holes and I don't agree with his assessments. What happened in the beginning of the year when OSU had 7 new DL's that hardly knew each other has nothing to do with them today. Also, I've heard this being talked around, how can anyone say that the USC game was close? Being up 21-0 at halftime is not close. USC falling short in the 2H was nothing out of the ordinary either. The Beavers beat USC at nearly every phase of the game. It was not close.

He discounts their wins vs poor teams but he fails to acknowledge them "giving the game away" vs Utah with an 9 point lead going into in the final 1:30 of that game. Utah is knocking on the BCS door now but wouldn't be if OSU had taken better care of the clock. It was one of the most awful examples of clock management I've ever seen from them. Dumbass plays at the end of the Stanford game cost them that victory too. Had it not been for stupid mistakes (as their game play was very good in both cases) OSU might be a one-loss team now.

So either your friend is counting heavly on more of the same (mistakes) from them or he's misread them badly. I think the latter.

 

[SKing24]

This is a message board chalked full of mere novice opinion's and California moneyline + dollars is one of them, but most importantly mine. I have a read and react style of handicapping and I read the line and am reacting. Don't need much more info for this to sell me on my favorite play of the week.

Just a handful of plays with value.

UNLV -9
Purdue +15
Mississippi St. +20
Toledo +15.5 (NICE PLAY)
California +3 (BEST BET

You can get UNLV -7 and Purdue +18 at Bodog...

 

[SKing24]

OK on the other hand, your friends logic is full of holes and I don't agree with his assessments. What happened in the beginning of the year when OSU had 7 new DL's that hardly knew each other has nothing to do with them today. Also, I've heard this being talked around, how can anyone say that the USC game was close? Being up 21-0 at halftime is not close. USC falling short in the 2H was nothing out of the ordinary either. The Beavers beat USC at nearly every phase of the game. It was not close.

He discounts their wins vs poor teams but he fails to acknowledge them "giving the game away" vs Utah with an 9 point lead going into in the final 1:30 of that game. Utah is knocking on the BCS door now but wouldn't be if OSU had taken better care of the clock. It was one of the most awful examples of clock management I've ever seen from them. Dumbass plays at the end of the Stanford game cost them that victory too. Had it not been for stupid mistakes (as their game play was very good in both cases) OSU might be a one-loss team now.

So either your friend is counting heavly on more of the same (mistakes) from them or he's misread them badly. I think the latter.

Conan, that's almost exactly what I was thinking. Like I said, he usually pays on Tuesday's and is the epitome of a "square". He does nothing more than look at the surface level of games and listen to ESPN. I am no sharp and would never claim to be since I've only been at this for 7 years and learn something new every week, but I do feel that my skills are better than his even though he's walking around with fat pockets after last week....Even more reason to fade him this week. HA HA!