Week 12: Ducks are Dead

[ofred]

9* Utah -12 I'll more to say on this later, but this play is mostly based on the opinion that this Oregon team has quit. You could see it in the Stanford game in the first half, and especially in the 2nd half. There is no confidence in Helfrich and some other coaches- DC Brady Hoke among them. There are reports of players screwing around at practice, and not expecting to be disciplined. This is not being a player's coach, it's called "being walked all over". Helfrich and Hoke keep repeating that they have to coach their players better. BS. They need to chew some asses and put some more of those whiny, entitled seniors and juniors on the bench. This will be a miserable week of practice in Eugene with everyone pretending they really just got to fix a few things and they'll be competitive. Oregon is a very bad team, just like the Arizona teams, Oregon State, and their defense is just like Cal's. Utah is just the opposite in demeanor- scrappy, physical, coachable and devoted to each other and their coaches.

The defense can't handle a running game, and especially a dual threat QB like Utah has. The Williams' boys will do well. Oregon loses their 2nd DL in 2 weeks to suspension, not that it matters since their DL is a dumpster fire. TE Pharoah Brown hurt his hamstring, and may not play, and he's one of the bright spots. Oregon has other injuries on the DL and are very thin. Very. Utah is a lot like Stanford- great run game, tough D that is nasty in attitude, and what makes anyone think this will be any different than that game? Plus Utah is at home in the high altitude of Salt Lake. I don't like giving up 12 such a large play, but I think this game snowballs on the Ducks. Helfrich is a dead man walking and the players know it, and probably some are just ready for the season to end. Losing is something they can't handle, and I think the discontent is much worse than what we are hearing about in the media.

 

[ofred]

Lost the Husky game last week, but overall about even due to the 4* and 3* hitting, and going 5-2 in small plays. 8-4, -.05 units

​YTD: 83-65, +49 units

 

[Saints2016]

Yeah Oregon is looking pretty damn bad. Good luck this week!

 

[solrosenberg]

Agree with you on Utah and Oregon, a good team playing a very bad one. With my record last weekend not sure my agreement is a good thing.
Also liking Stanford and USC

 

[ofred]

More on the Ducks: Now 6 DLs that were in the two or three deep, at the beginning of the season, are out. Now mind you, this was a position of weakness even before this amount of attrition. They are also down 2 of the top 4 receivers, and now possibly TE Pharaoh Brown, LB Ragin(a defensive leader and best D player), and CB Robinson are all questionable. This among other injuries, including their best RBs all being dinged up.

* Helfrich has not been fired, but his players know it's very likely going to happen as soon as the Civil War game with the Beavs is done. They know other coaches will be gone. So these are young guys who practice and plan with coaches that won't be around in 2-3 weeks, and I'm betting they hold these coaches somewhat responsible for the team's failures this year. They came to Oregon on the premise that the Ducks are a top 10 or 15 team, and now they are a laughingstock on campus and around the football world in general. 20 year olds are not often known for pointing the finger at themselves when something goes wrong, and self-absorbed athletes can be even worse in this respect. Not meaning to sound like a shrink, but the mentality of this team, I'm guessing, is somewhere between low confidence and wanting the nightmare to end.

Recruiting: The top 4 prep players in-state all have opted to NOT play for the Ducks. In the near past, the Ducks would have gotten 3 out of 4. All 4 are defensive players, something OU needs. However, Oregon dropped the ball by hardly following up on their initial pitches, and their complacency left the recruits feeling ignored and like it was a foregone conclusion they would sign with Oregon. I think this speaks loudly to the state of the leadership of this team, along with how poorly prepared they seem for games, and why players have been questioning the commitment of teammates since mid-season, and why I think this week's game with Utah presents two teams with opposite mentalities and confidence. You might want to lay off of Utah, but you'd be insane to play on Oregon.

 

[sendacash]

Any concern about a possible Utah look ahead to Colorado the following week or are the Ducks simply that bad? Didn't Utah really blast them up in Autzen last year?

 

[ofred]

Any concern about a possible Utah look ahead to Colorado the following week or are the Ducks simply that bad? Didn't Utah really blast them up in Autzen last year?

Yeah, by 42 I believe. And that was with a Duck team that was much more hopeful and with a deadly running game. Utah lived in the offensive backfield, and I think we'll see that again vs. a weaker Duck OL and a great Utah DL. As for the look ahead, I doubt it. Whittingham is the kind of coach who can keep his players focused on the job at hand. I also love the matchup of the Utah running game vs. the Duck defense. Like Stanford, running often depends less on there intricacies of a dependable passing game. Utah's QB will play action or run/ pass option, and make their offense that much harder to predict and/or defend.

1* Toledo -12.5 1H Ball State has one of the nation's worst pass defenses, and it has been even worse the past few weeks. Last game vs. EMU, they only dressed 3 CBs and 3 safeties. Toledo has been slow starting often this year, but I'm betting they address that this week in practice and come out playing crisp. James Gilbert, the very good RB for Ball State, is also questionable with a leg injury on a short week. Toledo's defense is better than their scores have indicated and they showed it last week in the 2H vs. NIU. Toledo's offense is a freak show of talent and diverse ways to attack, if they get it going.

 

[mango]

They died when their idiot coach went for 5 2pt conversions and lost to Nebraska cause of it. 1-7 since.

 

[sendacash]

Things must be getting bad up there when sure fire Duck recruits are packing their bags for Seattle. Good thing they got the dough to make Helfrich disappear.


[h=1]Elijah Molden's Washington commitment new rock bottom for Oregon[/h]11:51 AM MT

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  Chantel JenningsESPN Staff Writer

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WEST LINN, Ore. -- Since Class of 2017 cornerback Elijah Molden committed to Washington, he has been asked the same question countless times: What was the one thing that made you commit to the Huskies?
During his recruitment -- and really, since he came out of the womb -- he had seemed an almost-lock for Oregon. His father, Alex, had played for the Ducks in the 1990s and was an All-American there in 1995. His mother is also an Oregon alum. Molden's family moved to West Linn, Oregon, just an hour and a half from Eugene, in 2006. Elijah had a front-row seat to the explosion of the program and an automatic allure with his last name. Given the current state of the program, he was nearly guaranteed early playing time.
But even with all that, he knew that if he committed to Oregon, it really would be for mostly one thing: His dad played there.
And with Washington, "It's not just one reason," he tells people.
It's the culture of the program.
It's the fact that coach Chris Petersen has the team in the top 10 in Year 3 of his tenure and the way that defensive back coach Jimmy Lake has developed talent in the Huskies secondary.
It's the city of Seattle and the fact that post-football connections are abundant. It's the business school, internships and cosmopolitan opportunities.

Cornerback Elijah Molden, the nation's No. 213 overall recruit in the 2017 ESPN 300, recently picked Washington over Oregon despite the fact that his dad played for the Ducks in the 1990s. Tom Hauck for Student SportsMolden's decision was a business decision. Maybe that's what hurts the most for Oregon fans -- it wasn’t that Washington did anything extra special for Molden or promised him something unattainable.
It's just that they showed him a product that -- right now -- seems unattainable in Eugene.
There are the questions swirling about the stability of Mark Helfrich as the Ducks' head coach and the possible changes that could be made after a losing season. There's the on-field product that shows a clear gulf between the execution and talent level of Oregon and its opponents.
What Oregon once did to be unique has been mass produced -- several schools play fast, and everyone has cool uniforms and impressive facilities.
As a result, the Oregon that once got every in-state or son-of-a-former-player target as well as the occasional out-of-state five-star no longer exists. Everything that once epitomized the size, style and swag of Oregon can now be found easily elsewhere in the Pac-12.
Perhaps Washington safety Budda Baker saw that before anyone else. In 2014, after Chris Petersen was hired, the Washington native switched his commitment from Oregon to Washington. His decommitment was an early alarm bell to the shifting tides in the Pacific Northwest.
Molden's commitment is an outright fire alarm for the Ducks.
When a program no longer gets the in-state son of a former player, something is wrong.
Even after Baker's decommitment, Molden didn't see those warning signs. When the Ducks offered him later that same year, he couldn't imagine himself ending up anywhere but Eugene.
Back then, the Ducks were a team gearing up for a College Football Playoff run with Marcus Mariota preparing for his Heisman season. And Molden? He was going to Oregon "no matter what."
But as Oregon changed in the last two years, so did Molden.
He realized that he needed to put aside what 12-year-old Elijah thought and look at the current landscape for what it was.
"I just kept thinking if I went to Oregon and 10 years from now if I wasn't where I wanted to be, I'd blame myself," Molden said. "I'd probably say that I was stubborn back then, that the directions were point me in other ways and I was too stubborn to follow what people close to me and what I thought was the right decision."
Since Elijah committed to Washington, his father Alex has been hearing from a lot of people.
"Players who I played with," he said. "Players who I played against at Washington."

​

Guys like Napoleon "Nip" Kaufman and Bill Joe Hobert, both Washington alums, reached out to say that the Huskies would take care of the younger Molden.
More surprising might've been the texts that Alex got from former Oregon players and teammates.
"They support his decision," Alex said. "Knowing that it was probably the best thing for him because what's going on at Oregon right now with the product that they're putting out there ... You see that out on the field. What's the leadership? You've got to have guys who, No. 1, they love football and they're willing to sacrifice and think more team than anything and to be coachable. Looking at those things, I don't see it."
That's what most parents look for during the recruiting process. And lucky for Alex and Elijah, they found it. Just not where they expected it to be.

 

[ofred]

4* Michigan/Indiana- under 52.5 Michigan had, what for them, was a bad tackling game vs. Iowa. Rare, but true. For a team that prides itself on great tackling, this will be an emphasis in this week's game with Indiana. I have a feeling that Michigan's defense will have one of those outstanding games, and that Indiana will suffer the consequences. They know that Indiana QB Richard Lagow, when given time, can move his team well. But Lagow is a pocket passer, and not that elusive, and I think Michigan's pass rush will take away Lagow's pocket before anything else. Indiana also has had ball security issues as evidenced by their 4 fumbles given up last week vs. PSU in just the 1st half. So the Hoosiers will take care of the ball foremost, which often limits plays from being of longer yardage, but also keeps the Michigan D from getting easy TOs, and thus easy scores. Indiana has also lost both starting OTs for the year, and so pass protection is a bit of a problem.

Indiana's front defensive 7 is also quite good, in both from what I've seen, and from what other coaches in the Big 10 have noted. They have the potential to keep the Michigan run game win check and pressure QB O'Korn. O'Korn will probably do fine, but after last week's failed pass-fest at Iowa, I think Harbaugh keeps it on the ground more. He also knows that O'Korn had ball security issues at Houston, and keeps his offensive game plan more conservative. After all, Ohio State is next week, and a win vs. Indiana is more about just winning and not so much style points. Beating OSU, another NC competitor, goes a long way towards getting into the top 4 than risking a loss vs. Indiana or keeping his starters in too long. And Indiana's DL won't allow Michigan to score at will like they did vs. some of the weaker Big 10 competition. I also think that Michigan has played some really poor competition(Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois, Hawaii, UCF, Michigan State) and this has inflated their offensive stats. Their OL seems solid, but the skill players are not that dynamic. Their best WR, Darboh, is more of a possession receiver, and last year's best WR, Chesson, is struggling this year. Their scores against Wisconsin and Iowa should be closer to what we'll see against Indiana. Indiana has to hang their hat on their defense, and know this unit gives them their only chance.

Showers expected and winds in the 20s expected for Saturday. Cool late afternoon game in the low 40s.

 

[Vancouverfan]

On Utah as well here, good luck to us! Have you looked much into that San Diego State / Wyoming game at all? These 2 defences are on complete opposite ends of the spectrum and Wyoming coming off a triple OT game at UNLV last week as well. I'm hesitant to lay 10 points on the road, but these Aztecs have been a real money maker for me this season and I'm tempted to keep riding them until they fail me.

 

[ofred]

On Utah as well here, good luck to us! Have you looked much into that San Diego State / Wyoming game at all? These 2 defences are on complete opposite ends of the spectrum and Wyoming coming off a triple OT game at UNLV last week as well. I'm hesitant to lay 10 points on the road, but these Aztecs have been a real money maker for me this season and I'm tempted to keep riding them until they fail me.

Haven't looked at it much. SD State looking better every week, but 10 points on the road to a well-coached Wyoming team, I'm off it for now.

 

[Conan]

More Oregon ugliness...

EUGENE, Ore. -- The Oregon Ducks say they are aware of an off-field incident involving receiver
Darren Carrington and are handling it internally. Offensive coordinator Matt Lubick told reporters
after practice Wednesday that the Oct. 30 incident is being handled internally. He did not comment
further.

The Oregonian reported that Carrington has been accused of pushing a former student near campus
after the Ducks' game against Arizona State. The former student was injured. Eugene police spokes-
woman Melinda McLaughlin could not confirm an investigation into the matter. She told ESPN the
department has no arrests or citations involving Carrington.

Carrington, a junior, has caught 35 passes for 493 yards and three touchdowns this season.

 

[ofred]

3* Arkansas/ MSU- over 60 Playing against the murderous SEC defenses can make many offenses look pedestrian. Alabama, LSU, Florida, Auburn, Vandy, A&M…. I think these two teams break out this week playing two defenses that are more generous in allowing yardage and points. Arkansas' D is dead last in the nation in YPA at 6.3, and their pass defense is better, but due to their horrible run defense is exposed in a lot of man to man coverage. MSU lost both starting CBs at the beginning of the year, although CB Jiles is back now from a broken arm. But this secondary is poor. They have the 113th pass defense in the nation, giving up a 61% completion rate. MSU is within 4 yards of the most points allowed in the SEC. They have talent in the front, but are inexperienced, and have had many assignment and tackling lapses. Austin Allen has had to QB vs. 5 of the best SEC defenses, and has had his ups and downs, but vs. weaker Ds like MSU's, he has played well. Allen is a gamer, and though he doesn't run much, is good about moving in the backfield to make his throws.

MSU has also had offensive breakout games, such as 574 yards vs. A&M, and 35 points. QB Fitzgerald is a dual threat that is more a runner than a passer, but as a runner, he can make this Arkansas run D look bad. He's had 5 games rushing for over 100 yards himself, and 2 of those were close to 200. Both teams have strong running games. Last year, Arkansas and the Mississippi teams totaled over 100 points in both games, and I think this is the type of game where these 2, with some very good offensive coaching on both sides, score in the 75+ range. Defenses are tired at the end of the season, both have some explosive O skill players, and this game will provide a nice relief from the usual SEC defensive struggle. Both teams have bowl hopes- MSU has to win. Decent weather expected.

 

[ofred]

More Oregon ugliness...

EUGENE, Ore. -- The Oregon Ducks say they are aware of an off-field incident involving receiver
Darren Carrington and are handling it internally. Offensive coordinator Matt Lubick told reporters
after practice Wednesday that the Oct. 30 incident is being handled internally. He did not comment
further.

The Oregonian reported that Carrington has been accused of pushing a former student near campus
after the Ducks' game against Arizona State. The former student was injured. Eugene police spokes-
woman Melinda McLaughlin could not confirm an investigation into the matter. She told ESPN the
department has no arrests or citations involving Carrington.

Carrington, a junior, has caught 35 passes for 493 yards and three touchdowns this season.

I had the feeling, that seeing Carrington on the bench at times, that he might be a problem. Maybe one of those seniors that isn't giving his all, and a poor example for the young guys. Prior to the season, Carrington was considered the go-to WR.

 

[ofred]

Ducks WR and Olympic sprinter, Devon Allen, is quitting football. That makes one more Duck that is quitting football. Unfortunately, for them, some of the quitters are still playing every Saturday. (I know, bad joke)

 

[tmader7]

Ducks WR and Olympic sprinter, Devon Allen, is quitting football. That makes one more Duck that is quitting football. Unfortunately, for them, some of the quitters are still playing every Saturday. (I know, bad joke)

Whack, Whack, Whack a .....oh shit, not a mole, it's a Duck! LOL. Be sure to check out weather on those SEC games Fred, ya can get the nut hairs burnt if YR't careful. GL my friend!!!

~T~

 

[ofred]

3* Stanford -10(-120) "The Big Game", as they call it in the Bay Area. With many Cal fans losing interest in their rapidly declining team, and others too ashamed to watch, I wouldn't expect much of a home field advantage here for the Cal Bears. Even in the Jared Goff years, when Cal was sometimes competitive, Stanford covered this 10 point spread. Covered it the last 4, including two in Berkeley. Let's start with the weather. Supposed to have a 90% chance of rain, and not a sprinkle, but real rain. Windy, about 15-25 mph. All this favors the dominant rushing team, Stanford. In fact, I have no idea how Cal's incredibly bad run defense stops Stanford. And it's not just McCaffrey, but Bryce Love- who has a 7.0 ypc average. QB Keller Chryst is also a running threat and had an outstanding passing game vs. Oregon last week. Oregon- Cal, yeah, about the same in that they are equally bad on run defense and pass defense. Cal's secondary is also decimated with injuries and started 3 freshmen last week. So I don't think Cal stacks the box, and even if they do, they can't tackle, they can't shed their blocks, and don't play smart and disciplined like a Stanford offensive linemen does.

Cal does a couple of things well, but it doesn't always translate into points. Davis Webb and his pass blocking OL are their strengths. They also have 2 pretty good WRs, Chad Hansen being their leading guy. But he is playing on a gimpy ankle that keeps getting re-aggravated each week. He's probably at 80-85%. Cal's offense though is starting to falter, scoring only 21, 24, and 27 the last 3 weeks- and some of that in garbage time. In these weather conditions, the long passes may not be there. Webb had 425 yards passing vs. WSU, and they still lost by 35. Webb has also been getting picked off more as teams have the film to note his tendencies to force the ball in on medium throws. So Webb and his receivers get the yards, but due to turnovers, and being forced to give up on FGs and go for TDs due to being way behind, they aren't scoring that much. I think this game follows that course. Stanford's offense vs. the Cal D is just such a mismatch, that Stanford will likely score a TD 3 out 4 trips down the field. Cal will have occasional success, but not enough to keep up. Sonny Dykes' persistent complaining and haranguing of the refs also doesn't help. It tells the players, for the past many years, that the refs are part of the reason why we lose so much, and it's not our responsibility.

I know some might think, "Be careful in these rivalry games, they can be unpredictable." Well.. Stanford has been crushing Cal in these rivalry games, and a team that has almost no defense and runs inconsistently, is a good team to bet against.

 

[ofred]

2* SMU +13 This is decent sandwich opportunity here for SMU bettors. USF between big games with Memphis, which came down a 4th quarter score by USF at a 42-42 tie….and next week with UCF, which can tie USF for the AAC East title and will beat out USF on the head to head tie breaker. Anyways, SMU has had two seasons this year. They started the year losing 4 out of 6, and then have won 3 out of their last 4, including beating Houston and ECU. Also losing by 3 to a pretty good Tulsa team. SMU coach Chad Morris, the former OC at Clemson, is a top candidate for a number of more prominent HC jobs, if and when certain jobs open up(I'm thinking Texas, LSU, Baylor). Morris is an excellent motivator, recruiter and offensive mind. Bettors have a hard time playing against USF due to their dynamic offense and Quinton Flowers semi-imitation of Lamar Jackson. But USF has their issues too, such as having the 110th rushing defense and 97th passing defense. Just like Houston game planned tonight for L. Jackson, SMU will have to do the same for Flowers. Easier said than done, but this is a good spot for SMU at home, with a team that is riding high on confidence. SMU has an average defense, but they are ball hawks in the secondary and make turnovers part of their game-planning. This "2nd season" for SMU is drastically different statistically, and they have a decent chance for a bowl game with a win here- and a win is a possibility. RLM here also, with about 70% of the bets on USF, and the line moving away from 14.

 

[ofred]

2* WMU/ Buffalo- under 57
2* Buffalo +35.5 Kind of shocked that these numbers haven't changed yet, considering the weather. This game is about 28 hours away, and so this forecast looks to be accurate. Kalamazoo will be ugly tomorrow for football fans and players. You got the wind of 20-30, with gusts from 40-50. Then it's going to be cold enough for snow, which looks to be 90% likely along with rain. The window of this ugliness will be in the afternoon- before, during and after the game. WMU will definitely win, but in these conditions, will they be able to pass(which they are very good at)? I think they'll happy with a win, and not unnecessarily go for the style points. Also, WMU will pull starters early with a decent lead, and run out the clock. Buffalo is a poor passing team and will run and run some more. With both teams running primarily, watch the clock run too. May add to this…. Check out the local news station there- WWMT.